| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250428：震荡企稳 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/28 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,450.00 | | -0.53% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,780.00 | | -1.07% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 670.00 | | 45.00 | | 元/千克 38.00 N型多晶硅料 | | -3.80% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 38,390.00 | | -2.50% | | -390.00 基差 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,450.00 | | -515.00 -0.53% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 9,550.00 | | 0.00% | | 元/吨 9,350.00 | | -0.53% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,650.00 | | | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | | -1.03% | | 元/吨 9 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the expected loose supply of domestic lithium carbonate in April and the weakening price trend, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Futures and Spot Price - On April 24, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) all decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 68,380 yuan/ton, down 680 yuan. The trading volume of the active contract was 104,384 lots, a decrease of 111,782 lots from the previous day, and the open interest increased by 6,068 lots. The inventory decreased by 180 tons [1] - The average prices of various lithium minerals (lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, etc.) remained unchanged compared to the previous day, while the average prices of lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/ domestic, 99.2% industrial - grade/ domestic) decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - The average prices of some lithium compounds (lithium hydroxide, lithium hexafluorophosphate) decreased, while the average prices of some ternary precursors and ternary materials increased slightly [1] Industry News and Company Dynamics - In April 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology upgraded the "no fire, no explosion" requirement for electric vehicle power batteries from a recommended standard to a mandatory one [2] - The 20,000 - ton iron phosphate lithium hydroxide material project of Baiyin Times Ruitai New Material Technology Co., Ltd. was officially put into production in Baiyin City, Gansu Province. The total planned production capacity of the project is 100,000 tons, to be built in three phases [2] - Fangyuan Co., Ltd. decided to terminate the "Battery - grade Lithium Carbonate Production and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Lithium - ion Batteries Project" with a planned investment of no more than 2 billion yuan, and has invested 97 million yuan in the project [2] - Linyi Bucha Weimang Environmental Protection New Material Co., Ltd. plans to invest 100 million yuan to build a project for recycling and reusing 10,000 tons of waste lithium - ion batteries annually [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton wet - process project at Greenbushes may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of imported lithium ore. The monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate may increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. Some production lines will undergo maintenance, and new production capacity will be put into operation [3][5] - Demand side: The downstream demand for lithium products is gradually recovering. The production and inventory of some products (such as lithium iron phosphate) may increase, while the export volume of some products (such as lithium hydroxide) may decrease [3][5]

2025/4/25 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,800.00 0.15% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,940.00 0.18% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -140.00 -5.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - -40.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -20.00 -4.11 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -74.00 0.90 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -10.00 -10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 25.00 10.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 15.00 30.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 39,737.00 16.72% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 39,654.00 0.90% 成交持仓比 / 1.00 15.69% LME库存 吨 0.00% 277,875.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 38,326.00 -5.67% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 1,958.00 0.62% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.65 -0.44% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 22,910.00 0.44% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 22,590.00 ...

沪铜日评20250425:国内铜冶炼厂4月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会年存量环比减少 | | 变重名称 | 2025-04-24 | 2025-04-23 | 2025-04-16 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 77410 | 77890 | 75260 | -480.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 111572 | 137622 | 126227 | -26,050,00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 166136 | 171055 | 160697 | -4, 919. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 42964 | 44965 | 101344 | -2,001.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78115 | 78185 | 75920 | -70.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 沪铜县差 | 705 | 295 | 660 | 410.00 | | | | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | 225 | 225 | 80 | 0.0 ...

商胜和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已为求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果. 本公司赠不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有、未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制利发布。如 引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源朝货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改，数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险、投资需谨慎！ 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20250425:美国4月成屋销售低于预期前值,财政部7年期国债海外需求趋降 | 交易日期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-04-24 | 2025-04-18 | 2025-04-23 | 收盘价 | 7 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250425:短期维持震荡运行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/4/24 | 2025/4/23 | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2360.00 | 2370.00 | -10.00 | -0.42% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2375.00 | 2385.00 | -10.00 | -0.42% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2289.00 | 2300.00 | -11.00 | -0.48% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2405.00 | 2407.50 | -2.50 | -0.10% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2540.00 | 2545.00 | -5.00 | -0.20% | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2470.00 | 2465.00 | 5.00 | 0.20 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250425：震荡企稳 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 单位 | | 今值 | 变动 近期趋势 | 2025/4/25 | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,500.00 | -1.04% | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 8,875.00 | -0.62% | 工业硅期现价格 | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 625.00 | -45.00 | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 | | 39.50 | 0.00% | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 39,375.00 | 0.61% | 多晶硅期现价格 | | 元/吨 基差 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 | | 125.00 9,500.00 | -240.00 -1.04% | | | 元/吨 | | | | | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,550.00 9,400.00 | -1.04% -1.05% | | | 元/吨 | ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250425:需求阶段性放缓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 变化值 单位 4月24日 4月23日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1726.00 1830.00 | 1729.00 1830.00 | -3.00 0.00 | -0.17% 0.00% 0.00% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1766.00 | 1761.00 | 5.00 | 0.28% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1758.00 | 1762.00 | -4.00 | -0.23% | | | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1690.00 | 1690.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1830.00 | 1840.00 | -10.00 | -0.54% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/25 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/4/24 | 美元/桶 | 62.79 | 62.27 | 0.84% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/4/24 | 美元/桶 | 66.55 | 66.12 | 0.65% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/4/24 | 美元/吨 | 582.00 | 589.00 | -1.19% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/4/24 | | 美元/吨 | 649.00 | 658.00 | -1.37% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/4/24 | 美元/吨 | 744.00 | 750.00 | -0.80% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/4/24 | 元/吨 | 4 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Upstream Cost - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/4/24 was $582.00 per ton, down 1.19% from the previous value [1] - Ethylene price index in Northeast Asia on 2025/4/23 was $791.00 per ton, with no change [1] - Ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China on 2025/4/25 was 6,800 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/4/24 was 2,402.50 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Pit - mouth price of lignite (Q3500 in Inner Mongolia) on 2025/4/24 was 300 yuan per ton, with no change [1] 2. Futures and Spot Prices - DCE EG主力合约收盘价 on 2025/4/24 was 4,179 yuan per ton, down 1.67% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约结算价 on 2025/4/24 was 4,194 yuan per ton, down 0.26% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price and settlement price on 2025/4/24 were both 4,522 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - Market mid - price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China on 2025/4/24 was 4,220 yuan per ton, down 0.71% [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol (MEG) (intra - day) on 2025/4/24 was 4,205 yuan per ton, down 1.41% [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol (MEG) (outer - market) on 2025/4/24 was $490.00 per ton, with no change [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/4/24 was 328 yuan per ton, up 11 yuan [1] - Basis on 2025/4/24 was 26 yuan per ton, up 11 yuan [1] 3. Startup Conditions - Overall ethylene glycol startup rate on 2025/4/24 was 57.45%, up 0.23% [1] - Ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) startup rate on 2025/4/24 was 64.88%, up 0.37% [1] - Ethylene glycol (coal - based) startup rate on 2025/4/24 was 46.17%, with no change [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on 2025/4/24 was 90.11%, with no change [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on 2025/4/24 was 61.25%, down 2.18% [1] 4. Cash Flow Situation - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG on 2025/4/24 was - 2,018.50 yuan per ton, down 24.34 yuan [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based syngas method devices on 2025/4/24 was 404.42 yuan per ton, down 24.34 yuan [1] 5. Polyester Prices - Price index of polyester on 2025/4/24 was 8,375 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - CCFEI price index of DTY on 2025/4/24 had no information on price change [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/4/24 was 6,675 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/4/24 was 6,270 yuan per ton, up 0.16% [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/4/24 was 5,650 yuan per ton, with no change [1]