Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure. The silicon price faces significant pressure after a rebound. It is recommended to consider short - selling after the price rebounds, with an operating range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The polysilicon market has a heavy pessimistic sentiment, with prices in each photovoltaic segment declining. The silicon material transaction price has dropped, and the market is expected to be weakly sorted in the short term. Cross - period strategies such as 06 - 11 positive spreads and 11 - 12 negative spreads can be considered [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 0.48% to 10,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 0.23% to 8,800 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Furnace openings in Xinjiang decreased, while there were new furnace openings in Sichuan. In April, some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are expected to have new production capacity put into operation, showing an increase in the south and a decrease in the north, with limited overall changes [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend; organic silicon enterprises had a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand was weak, and downstream观望 sentiment was strong. The actual transaction price declined. The start - up of domestic monomer enterprises in production increased and decreased, and it is expected that the start - up rate will drop below 70% in April, further reducing the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Consider short - selling after the price rebounds, with an operating range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 38 yuan/kg; the price of polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; the price of polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg; the price of polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.59% to 37,780 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and the output in April is expected to remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: As the 430 rush - installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled, but the demand for centralized orders has started to increase. The battery production schedule has increased to 63 - 64GW, with sufficient supply and a decline in the transaction price. The production schedules of leading silicon wafer enterprises are relatively cautious, and the silicon wafer production schedule in April may fall short of expectations. After the demand in the middle and late April and May ends, the upside space for silicon wafers is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - It is expected to be weakly sorted in the short term. Continuously monitor the futures warehouse receipt registration situation and the actual production situation of silicon material factories. Cross - period strategies such as 06 - 11 positive spreads and 11 - 12 negative spreads can be considered [1]. Other Information - The price of silicon coal in many places has been reduced. As of April 27, the price of silicon - mixed coal in Gansu was 1,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period, and the price of granular coal was 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. The price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous period [1]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the newly installed grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic in China was 59.71 million kilowatts, of which centralized photovoltaic accounted for 23.41 million kilowatts and distributed photovoltaic accounted for 36.31 million kilowatts. As of the end of March 2025, the installed capacity of photovoltaic in China reached 945 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.4%. The cumulative power generation of photovoltaic in the first quarter of 2025 was 232.8 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 43.9%, and the utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation reached 93.6% [1]. - A Japanese solar solution provider, TOYO Solar, established a 2GW photovoltaic cell manufacturing plant in Ethiopia, which was put into production in early April 2025 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - level tariff and trade frictions have eased, domestic export and social financing data are stable and improving, and the Fed's statements have increased market expectations of interest rate cuts, reducing the pressure on non - ferrous metals. - On the raw material side, the accident at the Antamina mine in Peru last week had a minor impact on annual production. With the decline of zinc prices, the willingness of the mine end to raise TC is not high, and the increase space for TC in May is limited. As of April 25, the average import TC was 35 dollars/dry ton, and the average domestic TC was 3,450 yuan/metal ton. - On the supply side, domestic smelters have regular maintenance plans in April - May. Although zinc prices have declined, TC is stable and improving, and smelter profits have been repaired. Some maintenance plans have been postponed to mid - late May. The monthly output in April is expected to rise to about 570,000 tons. - On the demand side, downstream consumption is in the seasonal off - season. After the zinc price rebounds, purchasing weakens, and there is no "rush to export" phenomenon, with overall weak support. - In terms of inventory, last week, zinc prices continued to rise, and the spot premium was high. Downstream buyers were cautious, but market arrivals also decreased, leading to a slight reduction in social inventory. - It is expected that the short - term zinc price will mainly fluctuate within the range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. The strategy is to maintain short positions on rallies. With the upcoming May Day holiday, there is high macro uncertainty, so it is recommended to hold light or no positions during the holiday and continue to pay attention to macro and downstream consumption situations. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 3.35% to 23,110 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract rose 3.17% to 22,750 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 2.66% to 2,645.5 dollars/ton. [12] 3.2 Raw Material Side - **Zinc concentrate port inventory**: As of April 25, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 120,000 tons, a sequential increase. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 380,000 tons, also a sequential increase. [22] - **Zinc concentrate profit**: TC continued to rise, and last week's improvement in zinc prices drove up the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises. As of April 25, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,038 yuan/metal ton. In March, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 359,500 tons, a sequential decrease of 22.09% and a year - on - year increase of 47.16%. [29] - **TC increase speed**: The willingness of the mine end to hold prices has increased, and the speed of TC increase has slowed down. [31] 3.3 Supply Side - **Refined zinc monthly output**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to improve. As of April 25, the production profit was - 428 yuan/ton. In March, with the accelerated increase of zinc concentrate processing fees, smelters' production enthusiasm was high, and the output increased to about 546,900 tons. In April, due to the continuous improvement of profits, some enterprises postponed their maintenance plans, and the output is expected to increase to about 570,000 tons. [36] - **Import window**: The import profit window has closed. As of April 25, the import profit of refined zinc was - 106.38 yuan/ton. From January to March 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 101,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4,300 tons. The Fed's speech increased market expectations of interest rate cuts, and overseas zinc mine disturbances led to an upward shift of LME zinc prices. The import window opened briefly and then closed. [39] 3.4 Demand Side - **Galvanizing**: The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate decreased by 1.90 percentage points to 62.44%. The decline in black prices and the "buy - on - rising" mentality of traders led to a decline in galvanizing operating rates. Terminal special - high - voltage orders began to be released, and tower orders were stable. There was a 90 - day buffer period for exports, but the uncertainty was high, and the "rush to export" was not obvious. With the May Day holiday, some enterprises will have 1 - 5 days off, and the operating rate is expected to decline. Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased slightly. [47][50] - **Die - cast zinc alloy**: The price of zinc alloy increased. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy rose 3.26% to 23,780 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy rose 3.18% to 24,330 yuan/ton. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises increased by 0.59 percentage points to 58.98%. Some enterprises stopped production for the May Day holiday last week, and a slight increase in production drove up the operating rate. Some terminal sectors entered the off - season, and due to previous low - price stockpiling by downstream, recent orders have weakened. Die - cast zinc alloy enterprises' raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased. [58][61][64] - **Zinc oxide**: The price of zinc oxide increased. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% rose 3.27% to 22,100 yuan/ton. The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.02 percentage points to 59.77%. In terms of terminal orders, rubber - grade demand weakened, ceramic - grade orders were relatively stable, feed - grade orders were expected to weaken, and export orders were average. Zinc oxide enterprises' raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased. [70][73][76] 3.5 Inventory - **Social inventory**: As of April 24, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 73,800 tons, showing a decline. In Shanghai and Guangdong, arrivals were low during the week, and in Tianjin, arrivals increased slightly. However, due to previous low - price restocking by downstream, recent purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. As of April 24, the SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 12,100 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. [82] - **Exchange inventory**: As of April 25, the SHFE inventory was 51,400 tons, showing a decrease, and the LME inventory was 180,100 tons, also showing a decrease. [85] - **Monthly supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc from December 2024 to February 2025. [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. London gold should focus on support levels around $3150 - 3250 and resistance levels around $3500 - 3700; Shanghai gold should focus on support levels around 750 - 770 and resistance levels around 850 - 900; London silver should focus on support levels around $28 - 30 and resistance levels around $35 - 36; Shanghai silver should focus on support levels around 7400 - 7800/8000 and resistance levels around 8600 - 8900 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 793.25 yuan/gram, down 8.32 yuan; trading volume was 65020, and open interest was 232308. COMEX gold futures' closing price was $3357.70 per ounce, down $31.10; trading volume was 234897, and open interest was 327650. London gold spot price was $3322.90 per ounce, down $37.45. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 946.27 tons, down 10.90 tons; iShare Gold ETF holdings were 431.10 tons, up 4.14 tons [1] - **Important News**: Trump said that 200 agreements had been negotiated, the US - Philippines agreement was "very close", and it was unlikely that tariffs would be postponed for another 90 days. The Trump administration planned to hold talks with 18 trading partners under a new framework for simplified negotiations until July 8. There was a small - scale exchange of fire between India and Pakistan near the Line of Control in Kashmir on Thursday night, and the Pakistani defense minister issued a "full - scale war" warning [1] Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8270 yuan/ten grams, down 25 yuan; trading volume was - 460823, and open interest was 312250. COMEX silver futures' closing price was $33.02 per ounce, down $0.53; trading volume was 52122, and open interest was 34152. London silver spot price was $33.34 per ounce, up $0.38. US iShare Silver ETF holdings were 13956.01 tons, down 147.11 tons; Canadian PSLV Silver ETF holdings were 5807.39 tons [1] - **Important News**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, reaching an agreement on the budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion over the next decade and an increase in the debt ceiling of $5 trillion in exchange for government spending cuts of $4 billion [1] Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: Cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. Eurozone and German - French manufacturing PMIs in April were 48.7/48/48.2, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. Eurozone and German consumer price index (CPI) annual rates in August were 2.2% and 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. Economists predicted that the European Central Bank might cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - **Bank of England**: Kept the key interest rate at 4.5% in March, continuing to reduce government bond holdings of £100 billion from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK's consumer price index (core CPI) annual rates in February were 2.8% (3.5%), lower than expected and the previous value. The SPGI manufacturing and services PMIs in April were 44/48.957, lower than expected and the previous value, and the GDP monthly rate in April was - 0.1%, lower than expected and the previous value. The market expected the Bank of England to cut interest rates in May and might cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - **Bank of Japan**: Raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and started to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale by 400 billion yen in August 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru planned to coordinate the 2025 supplementary budget to distribute subsidies of 50,000 yen per person (the total scale may be close to 10 trillion yen) and cut taxes on daily necessities by 2 trillion yen. Japan's (Tokyo) consumer price index (CPI) annual rates in March (April) were 3.6% (3.5%), lower than expected and the previous value (higher than expected and the previous value). The largest labor union in Japan, Rengo, achieved an average salary increase of 5.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hoped to raise interest rates to 1% in the second and third quarters, and the market expected the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1] Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 493.40 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was $65.83 per barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was $62.77 per barrel [1] - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 77440 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was $9392.50 per ton, Shanghai rebar was 3106 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 709 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.57%, SHIBOR one - year was 1.77%. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.3200%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0200%, and the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.2700% [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.2667, the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.2055, and the euro - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 8.2124 [1] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3297.2881, the S&P 500 was 5525.2100, the UK FTSE 100 was 8415.2500, the French CAC40 was 7329.9700, the German DAX was 22242.4500, the Nikkei 225 was 35705.7400, and the South Korean Composite Index was 2522.3300 [1]

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 商日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1594.5 | 1607.0 | -156 | JM2601 | 1004.0 | 1004.5 | -0.5 | 101基差 | -105.5 | -118.0 | 15.5 | | J2505 | 1565.5 | 0.5651 | -26.5 | JM2505 | 889.0 | 5568 | -3.5 | 105基差 | -76.5 | -103.0 | 26.5 | | 12509 | 0.9995T | 1590.5 | -24,5 | 8055WIE | 0.956.0 | 0.956 | 0.0 | 100 查会 | -77.0 | -101.5 | 24. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in April is expected to be loose, and the price of lithium carbonate is likely to fall and difficult to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly set up short positions when the price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 3100 - 6000 and the pressure level around 2000 - 7000 [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures**: On April 25, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 68380 yuan/ton, 68180 yuan/ton, 69240 yuan/ton, and 69240 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active contract was 108177 lots, and the open interest was 217370 lots. The inventory was 31555 tons [1] - **Spot**: The average price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate on April 25, 2025, was 69800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 3.2 Industry News - **Project Investment and Production**: Linyi Buzha Weimang Environmental Protection New Materials Co., Ltd. plans to invest 100 million yuan to build a project for recycling and reusing 10,000 tons of waste lithium batteries annually. Silver Age Ruitai New Material Technology Co., Ltd.'s 20,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project in Baiyin City, Gansu Province, has been put into production. Fangyuan Co., Ltd. terminates a project worth up to 2 billion yuan [1][2] - **Supply - side Changes**: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, increasing the total capacity to 210,000 tons/year. Albemarle's phosphate salt production line will be overhauled before June 2025. Zijin Lithium's 25,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity will be completed and put into production in December 2025 [3] - **Demand - side Changes**: The demand for energy - storage batteries is gradually recovering, and the production, shipment, and inventory of energy - storage batteries may increase. The production and sales of new energy vehicles may also increase [5] 3.3 Market Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The production and import of domestic lithium in April may increase, and the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be loose. The production of lithium hydroxide may also increase [3][5] - **Demand**: The demand for some cathode materials is recovering, but the production profit of some products is negative, which may affect production [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Friday night's restart of production cut expectations led to simultaneous increases in steel futures and spot prices, as well as margin on the trading floor. Currently, the output of listed steel products is rising, while consumption has weakened month - on - month, mainly in building materials and sheet products. Attention should be paid to the rapid narrowing of the hot - cold spread and its potential impact on the weakening demand for hot - rolled coils. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, but it is not prominent at present. Market sentiment has improved compared to the previous period. In the short term, prices will fluctuate and consolidate. The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate between the flat - rate and off - peak electricity costs of electric furnaces. Considering significant policy disturbances, caution is advised for unilateral participation. A strategy to focus on the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the far - end contracts can be considered [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Conclusion and Balance Sheet - In April, domestic steel spot prices showed mixed trends. The price of Shanghai rebar (32mm) was 3250 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the end of March, while the price of Tangshan rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coils, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the end of March, and the price of Tianjin hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, also down 20 yuan/ton [3][4]. - As of April 24, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 3.13 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 9.01 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 41.4 tons. The apparent demand was 926.25 tons, down 22.39 tons month - on - month. As of April 25, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3069 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 121 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was about 71 yuan/ton. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (Fubao's calculation) was about 3300 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3140 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar at flat - rate electricity was about - 200 yuan/ton, and at off - peak electricity was about - 40 yuan/ton [5]. - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared to 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared to 2023. From January to March 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and the cumulative crude steel output was 259 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - As of April 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 91.6%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points from April 18, and the daily average pig iron output was 244.4 tons, an increase of 4.23 tons [51]. - As of April 24, the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 33.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 53.8 tons, a decrease of 0.52 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27.6 tons per day, an increase of 0.1 tons, and the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 16 tons, a decrease of 0.75 tons. The daily arrival of 255 steel mills was 51.4 tons, an increase of 4.95 tons. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 527.8 tons, an increase of 6.97 tons or 1.3% [5]. - This week, the original sample rebar output was 229.11 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 202.4 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons, and the short - process output was 26.71 tons, a decrease of 0.51 tons [66]. 3.2.2 Demand - As of April 24, the apparent demand for five major steel products was 926.25 tons, a decrease of 22.39 tons month - on - month [5]. - The real - estate 30 - city sales high - frequency data shows that the real - estate market continues to be sluggish, which has a negative impact on steel demand [78]. - The national cement mill operating rate has declined. The average national cement mill operating rate was 49.04%, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points from the previous week, and the decline rate widened by 1.49 percentage points, indicating insufficient demand [77]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of April 24, the total inventory of five major steel products decreased. The factory inventory decreased by 9.01 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 41.4 tons [5]. - This period, the original sample rebar factory inventory was 193.73 tons, a decrease of 6.67 tons, the social inventory was 508.6 tons, a decrease of 24.16 tons, and the total inventory was 702.33 tons, a decrease of 30.83 tons [82]. - This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 317.5 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons. The apparent demand was 324.36 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 6.86 tons, the social inventory remained flat, and the total inventory decreased by 6.86 tons [85]. 3.2.4 Price - In April, domestic steel spot prices showed mixed trends. The price of Shanghai rebar (32mm) was 3250 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the end of March, while the price of Tangshan rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. For hot - rolled coils, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the end of March, and the price of Tianjin hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, also down 20 yuan/ton [4]. - As of April 27, the hot - cold spread in Shanghai was 530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton [92]. 3.2.5 Export - As of April 25, the FOB export price of China was 457 US dollars, and the export profit was + 6.6 US dollars, a decrease of 4.1 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 294.99 tons, an increase of 1.98 tons [95].

Report Title - Black Metal Monthly Report - Iron Ore [1] Report Date - April 28, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - Recently, the expectation of crude steel production cuts has restarted, putting pressure on the far - end iron ore prices and widening the disk profit. Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both increasing. The data shows that the shipments of mainstream Australian mines have increased significantly, and the overall shipments from Brazil have also increased with the recovery of VALE's shipments. The global volume has clearly increased and returned to the high level of the same period in history. On the demand side, the pig iron output has increased more than expected this period, and the port inventory has increased month - on - month. The far - end price is suppressed by the production cut expectation and is weaker than the near - month price. Strategically, the pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term may continue, and cautious operation is recommended [9] Summary by Directory Part 1: Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: In April, the spot prices of iron ore decreased, with the decline ranging from 1 to 28 yuan. As of April 25, the Platts 62% index closed at $99.2, down $0.2 week - on - week, equivalent to about 841 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.28. The optimal delivery product is BRBF powder, with a latest quotation of about 772 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 777 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [5]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China has increased month - on - month and is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,781 tons, an increase of 231 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 829.44 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 663.11 tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may decrease slightly in the next period [5]. - **Supply - Shipment**: The total global iron ore shipments in this period were 3,188.2 tons, an increase of 262.7 tons month - on - month. From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2,758.4 tons, an increase of 320.7 tons month - on - month. Australian shipments were 1,995.2 tons, an increase of 196.0 tons month - on - month, and the amount shipped to China was 1,647.2 tons, an increase of 72.9 tons month - on - month. Brazilian shipments were 763.2 tons, an increase of 124.6 tons month - on - month [6]. - **Supply - Arrival**: From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,679.6 tons, an increase of 230.4 tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,512.8 tons, an increase of 187.5 tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,159.3 tons, a decrease of 34.3 tons month - on - month [6]. - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills in this period was 244.35 tons/day, an increase of 4.23 tons/day compared with last week, an increase of 19.2 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 15.6 tons/day year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plan, the pig iron output will fluctuate slightly in the next period [8]. - **Conclusion**: The expectation of crude steel production cuts has put pressure on the far - end iron ore prices, and the strategy may continue the pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term, with cautious operation recommended [9] Part 2: Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: Details of brand premiums (discounts), chemical indicators, and quality premiums of various iron ore varieties are provided, with BRBF as the optimal delivery product and Newman powder as the second - best [14][15]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period**: Charts show the inter - period spreads of iron ore contracts such as 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 [16][17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content - **High - Low Grade Price Difference**: Not elaborated in detail in the provided content - **Premium Index**: Premium index trends of 62.5% lump ore and 65% pellets from 2020 to 2025 are presented [26] - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: Inventory trends of various iron ore brands (such as PB powder, Newman powder, etc.) at 15 ports and their premium (discount) trends from 2020 to 2025 are shown [28] - **Steel Mill Sintered Powder Ore Inventory**: As of April 25, 2025, the imported sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills was 1,269 tons, a slight increase; the domestic sintered powder ore inventory was 84 tons, a slight decrease; the average inventory days of imported ore increased [31] - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption**: As of April 25, 2025, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9,073.0 tons, an increase of 20.11 tons month - on - month; the daily consumption was 301.4 tons, an increase of 3.29 tons month - on - month; the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased [34] - **Port Inventory, Berthing**: The total port inventory at 45 ports, berthing ship numbers, and inventory of Australian and Brazilian ores at 45 ports from 2021 to 2025 are presented [37] - **Port Inventory - By Ore Type**: As of April 25, 2025, the inventory of imported port lump ore decreased, the inventory of pellet ore and iron concentrate powder increased, and the inventory of coarse powder increased [40] - **Surcharge**: Surcharge data from 2020 to 2025 are presented, but some data are missing [44] - **Iron Ore Import Quantity**: Import volume trends of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, and other countries from 2020 to 2025 are presented [47][48][50] - **Australian Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: The monthly average shipment volume of Australian iron ore to the world and to China from 2021 to 2025 is presented, and the shipment data on April 25, 2025, show an increase compared with April 18, 2025 [56][57] - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: The monthly average shipment volume of Brazilian iron ore to the world from 2021 to 2025 is presented, and the shipment data on April 25, 2025, show an increase compared with April 18, 2025 [61][62] - **Four Major Mines' Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: The shipment volume data of the four major mines (Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and FMG) to China on April 25, 2025, are presented, with the total shipment volume increasing compared with April 18, 2025 [63] - **Iron Ore Arrival**: The arrival volume data of 45 ports and northern ports on April 25, 2025, are presented, with the 45 - port arrival volume increasing and the northern port arrival volume decreasing compared with April 18, 2025 [70] - **Freight Rate**: Freight rate trends of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 to 2025 are presented [72] - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: The inventory and production data of iron concentrate powder in mines on April 25, 2025, are presented, with the inventory decreasing by 6.94% and the production decreasing by 2.11% compared with April 18, 2025 [76][77] - **Steel Mill Powder Ore Daily Consumption & Steel Mill Capacity Utilization**: As of April 25, 2025, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 91.6%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points; the daily consumption of imported sintered powder decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of domestic ore sintered powder increased slightly [78] - **Pig Iron Output**: The daily average pig iron output data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association from 2016 to 2025 are presented [85] - **Global Pig Iron Output**: Pig iron output trends of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 to 2025 are presented [88] - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Output**: Pig iron output data of regions outside China from 2017 to 2025 are presented, with the data on April 25, 2025, showing a decrease compared with the same period last year [93]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250428: 需求阶段性放缓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | | 单位 4月24日 4月25日 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 | | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1725.00 1766.00 | 1725.00 1766.00 | 0.00 0.00 | 0.00% 0.00% | | 尿素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | UR09 | (收盘价) | | 元/吨 | 1757.00 | 1757.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 山东 | | | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1830.00 | -30.00 | -1.64% | | 期现价格 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1690.00 | 1690.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1820.00 | -20.00 | -1.10% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead price is expected to trade within a range due to the conflict between tight raw materials and poor demand, while the Shanghai zinc price will experience wide - range consolidation. In the short term, there is significant uncertainty in macro - sentiment for both metals. In the long - term, the zinc price center may shift downward as the TC has room for further increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Indicators - **Lead**: The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,945 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the LME3 - month lead futures收盘价 (electronic) was 1,945 dollars/ton, down 0.74%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.71, up 0.78% [1]. - **Zinc**: The SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 23,110 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,750 yuan/ton, up 0.71%; the LME3 - month zinc futures收盘价 (electronic) was 2,645.5 dollars/ton, down 1.56%; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.60, up 2.31% [1]. 3.2 Production and Consumption - **Lead**: From April 19 to April 25, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 66.23%, up 2.98 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 46.92%, down 9.73 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.56%, up 1.06 percentage points [1]. - **Zinc**: From April 19 to April 25, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 62.44%, down 1.90 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 58.98%, up 0.59 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 59.77%, down 1.02 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions and Trends - **Lead**: The primary lead smelters have basically resumed production, but some refineries in Henan will undergo maintenance in April. The price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, causing some secondary lead smelters to cut production. Currently in the consumption off - season, the pre - May Day stocking enthusiasm is low [1]. - **Zinc**: The smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and the zinc ore processing fee has been rising. After the zinc price increase, downstream buyers are cautious. The downstream export orders to the US face problems, while those to other regions are normal [1]. 3.4 Inventory - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory was 274,075 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 37,971 tons, down 0.93% [1]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory was 180,050 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 3,185 tons, down 12.38%. As of April 24, the zinc ingot inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 1.21 million tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1]. 3.5 Trading Volume and Open Interest - **Lead**: The trading volume of the active futures contract was 37,979 lots, down 4.42%; the open interest was 38,733 lots, down 2.32%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.98, down 2.15% [1]. - **Zinc**: The trading volume of the active futures contract was 203,216 lots, up 12.68%; the open interest was 122,427 lots, down 2.12%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.66, up 15.12% [1].