| | | | 碳 锂 8 评20250424：国内碳酸锂4月供给预期偏松,三元材料厂库存量较上周减少 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-04-23 | 2025-04-22 | 2025-04-17 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 69060.00 | 68000.00 | 70500.00 | 1,060.00 | | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 69000.00 | 67900.00 | 70420.00 | 1,100.00 | | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 69920.00 | 69040.00 | 70460.00 | 880.00 | | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 69920.00 | 69040.00 | 71380.00 | 880.00 | | | | | 收盘价 | 68980.00 | 67840.00 | 70500.00 | 1,140.00 | | | 碳酸锂期货 | 活跃合约 | 成交量(手) ...

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 1608.0 | | 0.68997 | 067 | JM2601 | 1006.5 | 973.0 | 33.5 | 101更美 | -119.0 | -74.0 | -45.0 | | J2505 0 T65T | | 56655 | 515 | JM2505 | 884.0 | 850.0 | 34.0 | 105甚差 | -102.0 | -50.5 | -515- | | 6096ZE | 0'9655T | 1530'2 | 64.5 | 8052WIC | 9556 | 958.5 | 34.0 | 100 查会 | -106.0 | -41.5 | -64.5 | ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 2025/4/24 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,775.00 -0.45% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,910.00 -0.24% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -135.00 -35.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 40.00 15.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -15.89 -0.68 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -74.90 -4.60 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 - 10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 - 15.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -15.00 -20.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 34,044.00 19.44% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 39,302.00 4.89% 成交持仓比 / 0.87 13.88% LME库存 吨 0.00% 277,075.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 40,630.00 -4.95% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 1,950.00 1.38% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.67 -1.59% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overnight VIX index declined, and the improvement in macro sentiment drove the rebound of oil prices. The potential significant reduction of tariffs on China further alleviated market concerns, leading to a continued increase in oil prices during the Asian session. However, without effective resolution of the tariff issue, long - term market suppression is expected to persist. The polyester industry still faces demand drag, and with the approaching "May Day" holiday in China, the terminal operating rate may further decline [2]. - PTA prices rose due to the temporary easing of trade frictions, improved market sentiment, rising crude oil prices, and increased downstream polyester sales. Although PTA social inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in history, there are signs of a slight reduction in the past month, with hopes of inventory reduction from April to May. But due to macro news and demand drag, the upward drive of raw materials is continuously weakening [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market's center of gravity rose. The supply - side quotes were mixed, and downstream terminal buying improved in the afternoon. The bottle - chip industry's operating rate has increased recently, and mainstream producers intend to cut production to support prices. The market follows a cost - pricing logic [2]. - Considering the increased possibility of Sino - US negotiations and the overnight oil market situation, it is expected that PX will operate strongly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On April 23, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.27/barrel, down 2.20%; Brent crude oil was $66.12/barrel, down 1.96%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $589/ton, up 2.26%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $658/ton, up 0.38%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $750/ton, up 1.63% [1]. - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4408 yuan/ton, up 2.37%; settlement price was 4342 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4299 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4345 yuan/ton, up 1.14%, and the external price index was $570.5/ton, down 0.35% [1]. - **PX**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6224 yuan/ton, up 2.88%; settlement price was 6114 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene remained unchanged at 5956 yuan/ton. The PXN spread was $161/ton, down 0.62%, and the PX - MX spread was $92/ton, up 11.52% [1]. - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5686 yuan/ton, up 1.32%; settlement price was 5626 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5650 yuan/ton, up 0.89%, and in the South China market was 5700 yuan/ton, up 0.88% [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 8375 yuan/ton; the index of polyester POY was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester FDY68D and FDY150D was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester staple fiber was 6260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester chips was 5500 yuan/ton, up 0.09%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5650 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 72.50%. The PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 82.14%, up 3.26%; the polyester factory load rate was 90.11%, up 1.16%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 80.44%, up 4.00%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 63.43% [1]. Production and Sales - On April 23, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 72.00%, up 32.00% from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 93.00%, up 24.00%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 207.00%, up 166.00% [1]. Device Information - Hengli Petrochemical plans to overhaul its 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in Huizhou on April 28 and its 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Dalian around May 10, and will reduce the contract supply in May [2]. Trading Strategy - Due to the increased possibility of Sino - US negotiations, the TA2509 contract closed at 4408 yuan/ton (2.51%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.19 million lots; the PX 2509 contract closed at 6224 yuan/ton (2.91%), with an intraday trading volume of 20,270 lots; the PR 2506 contract closed at 5686 yuan/ton (1.68%), with an intraday trading volume of 43,400 lots. Overnight, international oil prices first rose and then fell, but the decline narrowed after reports that US President Trump might lower tariffs on Chinese imports. It is expected that PX will operate strongly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north, with overall limited changes. On the demand side, polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises are in a state of production reduction, and the demand for industrial silicon is weak. The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, and the industry has high inventory pressure. The silicon price is expected to face pressure after the rebound [1]. - The polysilicon market has a situation where supply and demand are both changing. Supply-side enterprises maintain production reduction, and demand-side distributed component orders cool down while centralized orders increase. With the approaching of the 430 rush installation node, the demand is expected to weaken in May, which will drag down the polysilicon price. The polysilicon futures market is in a state of shock and then stabilizes [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of industrial silicon non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,600 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 10,550 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.48% to 8,930 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Furnace openings in Xinjiang decreased, while new furnace openings appeared in Sichuan. In April, some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are expected to have new production capacity put into operation, showing a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north, with overall limited changes [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but the demand is weak, and the downstream is in a wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction price has declined. Domestic monomer enterprises in production are expected to further reduce the operating rate to below 70% in April, and the demand for industrial silicon will further decline. Silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. Investment Strategy - Considering the strong supply and weak demand in the silicon market and high inventory pressure, the strategy is to consider shorting after the price rebounds, with an operating range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N-type dense material remained flat at 39.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon re-feeding material remained flat at 36 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, and the price of polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.93% to 39,135 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, and the output in April is expected to remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: As the 430 rush installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled down, while the demand for centralized orders has increased. The battery production schedule has increased to 63 - 64GW, with sufficient supply and a decline in the transaction price. On the silicon wafer side, affected by the earthquake and the cautious production schedule of leading enterprises, the silicon wafer production schedule in April may fall short of expectations. After the demand peak in the middle and late April and May ends, the upward space for silicon wafers is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - As the demand is expected to weaken in May, which will drag down the polysilicon price, the polysilicon futures market is in a state of shock and then stabilizes. The cross-period strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and the 11 - 12 negative spread. Continuously monitor the futures warehouse receipt registration situation and the actual operating situation of polysilicon factories [1]. Other Information - On April 21, according to data from the German Federal Network Agency, the newly installed solar photovoltaic capacity in Germany in March was about 787.2 megawatts, the lowest monthly performance in the German photovoltaic market since December 2022. This decline may be related to the new regulations of the "Solarspitzengesetz" that came into effect at the end of February [1].

| 甲醇日评20250424:油价将造成一定利空冲击 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | 变化值 2025/4/23 2025/4/22 | 单位 | | | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | MA01 | | | 元/吨 | 2370.00 | 2326.00 | 44.00 | 1.89% | | MA05 | 甲醇期货价格 | | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 2335.00 | 50.00 | 2.14% | | MA09 | (收盘价) | | 元/吨 | 2300.00 | 2260.00 | 40.00 | 1.77% | | 太仓 | | | 元/呼 | 2407.50 | 2390.00 | 17.50 | 0.73% | | 山东 | | | 元/吨 | 2545.00 | 2550.00 | -5.00 | -0.20% | | 广东 | | | 元/吨 | 2465.00 | 2460.00 | 5.00 | 0.20% | ...

沪铜日评20250424：国内铜冶炼厂4月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会年存量环比减少 22）上游：秘鲁antaafina帮韩审因发生事故而停产（2024年铜精矿生产量为42.7万金属吨），波兰铜业IK6IM位于智利Si eera Cordaf阿 因工人死亡而暂停生产《24年生产量为1.4.6万金 属吨 ），哈萨克钢业公司欧azakhnysq旗下鸟勒套州江阿尔卡县境内一座钢矿发生矿难事故而暂停生产，ACC Metalsq旗下Getikt tope多 金属矿山的疏化钢矿扩建项目将于2020年一季度投 产目初期年产量为2.5万吨，印尼自由港麦克莫兰公司（Freeoort McMxRan）8月17日被准许6个月内出口127万吨铜精矿但将被征收更富出口税，铜陵有色旗下位于厄瓜多尔时状拉多 钢矿二期15万吨产能或于26年下半年投产，巨龙钢矿新增二期20万吨/日扩建工程或于25年底投产，或使国内4月钢精矿生产《进口》量环比减少〈增加），中国钢精矿进口指数为负且 线上周下降，世界《中国》港口铜精矿出港（入港）量较上周增加〈增加〉，中国主流港口钢精矿库存量较上周减少，欧洲高品质穿钢钢钢制出口使中国进口商仅能采购钢米或黄钢, ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250424: 需求阶段性放缓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 变化值 单位 4月23日 4月22日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1729.00 1830.00 1690.00 | 1738.00 1840.00 1690.00 | -9.00 -10.00 0.00 | -0.52% -0.54% 0.00% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1761.00 | 1774.00 | -13.00 | -0.73% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1762.00 | 1783.00 | -21.00 | -1.18% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1840.00 | 1840.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1840.00 ...

| 贵金属日评20250424:欧美4月制造业PMI均高于预期，财政部5年期美债标售表现稳定 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-04-23 | 2025-04-22 | 2025-04-17 | 收盘价 | 789. 22 | 784. 28 | -47.14 | 831. 42 | -4. 94 | | | | | 成交重 | 492, 632. 00 | 1365212. 00 | 661, 333. 00 | 872580.00 | 703879.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 185566.00 | 204671.00 | 197638.00 | -19,105.00 | -12, 072. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 15648.00 | 15678.00 | 15678.00 | -30.00 | -30. 00 ...