风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和 建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据 本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不 得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | M | E | G | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

[原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 4 月 18 日 转机与阴霾 风险提示：关税政策调整，美国对外制裁加剧，中东局势变动，OPEC+政 策调整。 | 一、 宏观分析 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 1、宏观预期暂未进一步恶化，油价止跌反弹 4 | | | 2、转机的可能—贝森特主导下的零关税谈判而非零逆差 4 | | | 3、阴霾仍在 6 | | | 二、 基本面分析 | 7 | | 1、供给端：欧佩克收到产量补偿计划 7 | | | 2、需求端：关注旺季出行消费情况 8 | | | 3、库存：库存相对低位，注意地缘对供给的影响 | 10 | | 三、总结与展望 | 11 | [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师：詹建平 从业资格证号：F0259856 投资咨询证号：Z0002423 研究所 能化研究室 Tel：010-82292099 Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《宏源原油周报 202501 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Global PGES resources are unevenly distributed, with high concentration. China's PGES resources are scarce, and its external dependence is increasing. The demand for PGES in various industries in China is growing, especially in the automotive and chemical industries, which will further increase the external dependence [2][23][40] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange plans to launch platinum and palladium futures in 2025, and the draft contract has been designed to serve industrial hedging [6][50] Summary by Directory I. Introduction to Platinum Group Elements - Platinum group elements (PGES) include six metallic elements in Group VIII of the periodic table. They have similar physical and chemical properties and unique characteristics, which determine their different uses [7] - Globally, PGES deposits can be divided into four major types, with magmatic deposits dominating in terms of reserves and scale. These deposits have characteristics such as strong magmatic rock metallogenic specialization, large resource reserves in large - super large deposits, a specific range of metallogenic epochs, and a tendency for specific metallogenic units [10][11][13] II. Basic Production Process of Platinum Group Metals - The production of platinum group metals involves multiple steps, including mining, beneficiation, smelting, and refining. Flotation is a common beneficiation method, and fire - and wet - smelting are used for separation. The final refining aims to produce pure metals or compounds [18] III. Global Platinum Group Element Resource Reserves and Distribution Characteristics - Global identified PGES resources and reserves are 9.27x104 t and 5.31x104 t respectively. Platinum and palladium resources are mainly distributed in southern Africa, North America, and Europe - the Far East. Africa has the highest concentration, followed by Russia and North America. China has extremely limited PGES resources, with identified resources and reserves accounting for less than 1% of the global total [23][25][26] IV. Supply Overview and Development and Utilization Status of Platinum Group Elements in China - China's identified PGES resources are insufficient to meet economic development needs. The resources are mainly distributed in Gansu, and the deposits are mostly associated with other minerals. The deposits include various types, with copper - nickel sulfide deposits being dominant. However, the ore grade is low, and the metallogenic epoch has a large span [31][32] V. Domestic Demand for Platinum Group Metals (1) Current Consumption Status of Domestic Platinum Group Elements - In the past 10 years, China has become the world's largest consumer and importer of PGES, with an external dependence of up to 98%. The consumption is mainly in the automotive and aviation, jewelry and investment, chemical, electronic, glass manufacturing, modern medical, and other industries. The consumption trends in different industries vary [40][41][42] (2) Domestic Consumption Trends of Platinum Group Elements - In the short - term (2020 - 2023), industries related to PGES consumption are in a weak - fluctuation stage, and after 2024, they will enter a new high - growth phase. In the automotive industry, different types of vehicles have different PGES consumption levels. The consumption of PGES in jewelry, chemical, glass manufacturing, and electronic industries also has different trends [45][47][49] VI. Draft of Platinum and Palladium Futures Contracts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange - The draft contract includes details such as trading varieties, codes, units, price limits, contract months, trading times, and delivery rules. The contract aims to serve industrial hedging, with features like allowing two forms of delivery (ingot and sponge), considering different purity and impurity requirements, and setting up delivery warehouses across the industry chain [50][53][59]

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 即日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1597.0 | 1600.0 | -3.0 | JM2601 | 1006.0 | 1019.5 | -13.5 | J01基差 | -108.0 | -111.0 | 3.0 | | J2505 | 1538 5 | 1558.5 | -20.0 | JM2505 | 866.5 | 899.0 | -32.5 | 105基差 | -49.5 | -69.5 | 20.0 | | 12509 | 1555 5 | 1566.0 | - TO'E | 8055VIE | 950.5 | 0.996 | -155 | 100 查会 | -66.5 | -77.0 | 10.5 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250418: 低多思路为主 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 4月17日 | 4月16日 | 变化值 | 英化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1718.00 1880.00 1730.00 | 1731.00 1880.00 1730.00 | -13.00 0.00 0.00 | -0.75% 0.00% 0.00% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1768.00 | 1789.00 | -21.00 | -1.17% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1755.00 | 1767.00 | -12.00 | -0.68% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1870.00 | 1890.00 | -20.00 | -1.06% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1860.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market lacks obvious drivers from both supply and demand sides in April. The overall situation is that it is difficult to find bullish factors. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2309 yuan/ton on April 17, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.94%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2333 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.52%); MA09 closed at 2238 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.06%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average price in Taicang was 2425 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.22%); in Shandong, it was 2565 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.10%); in Guangdong, it remained unchanged at 2475 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, it was 2255 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Sichuan - Chongqing, it was 2310 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.65%); in Hubei, it remained unchanged at 2465 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2262.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 116 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 472.5 yuan/ton and 542.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 537.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.92%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol was 653 yuan/ton, up 6.3 yuan/ton (0.97%); the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 410 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO was - 189.8 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-5.56%); the profit of East China MTO was - 822.57 yuan/ton, up 77.5 yuan/ton (8.61%); the profit of acetic acid was 570.37 yuan/ton, up 16.5 yuan/ton (2.98%); the profit of MTBE was 276.56 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-15.31%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at - 273.2 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 continued to be weak, opening at 2270 yuan/ton, closing at 2238 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 659,451 lots and an open interest of 668,645 lots [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - month is 258 - 268 US dollars/ton. Some non - Iranian shipments arriving at the end of May were traded at 258 US dollars/ton (5000 tons). The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - month is +1 - 1.5%. In other Middle Eastern regions, a small number of far - month shipments were traded at +0.5% [1]

| 镍与不锈钢日评20250418：震荡回升 | 2025-04-17 | 2025-04-16 | 2025-04-10 | 交易日期（日） | 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 126030.00 | 124140.00 | 121030.00 | 1,890.00 | 126190.00 | 124290.00 | 121600.00 | 1,900.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 126240.00 | 124320.00 | 121610.00 | 1,920.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | | | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 126430.00 | 124490.00 | 121680.00 | 1,940.00 | 126030.00 | 124140.00 | 1216 ...

2025/4/18 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 0.00% 16,700.00 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,750.00 0.57% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -50.00 -95.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 25.00 -15.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -16.24 3.70 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -70.10 5.40 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 - -10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 - 30.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -10.00 10.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 21,381.00 8.39% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 28,291.00 -8.72% 成交持仓比 / 0.76 18.74% LME库存 吨 0.00% 281,625.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 48,997.00 -15.49% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 1,927.50 1.02% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.69 -0.45% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 22,410.00 -0.66% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 21,990.00 0.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is under high inventory pressure with no obvious improvement in demand, and the silicon price is expected to remain low in the short term. For industrial silicon, the supply has limited overall changes with a south - increase and north - decrease pattern, while demand from downstream industries is weak. For polysilicon, there is a multi - empty game with the 06 contract having some driving factors but a weakening demand expectation in May [1]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) decreased by 0.51% to 9,750 yuan/ton, and 421 (East China) decreased by 0.47% to 10,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price dropped by 0.06% to 9,015 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: In Xinjiang, the number of open furnaces decreased; in Sichuan, there were new open furnaces. In April, some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are expected to have new capacity put into production. Overall, the supply of industrial silicon has a south - increase and north - decrease pattern with limited overall changes [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation. Organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Domestic monomer enterprises in production are expected to further reduce the operating rate to below 70% in April. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The silicon market has high inventory pressure, and the price is expected to be in the range of 9,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton in the short term. Considering the extremely low price, it may force silicon enterprises to cut production, and the risk of short - selling is high. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material decreased by 1.25% to 39.5 yuan/kg, while polysilicon re - feedstock, dense material, and cauliflower material prices remained flat. The futures main contract closing price dropped by 2.05% to 39,440 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and the output in April is expected to remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: As the 430 rush - installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled, but the demand for centralized orders has increased. The battery production schedule has been raised to 63 - 64GW, with sufficient supply and a decline in the transaction price. The silicon wafer production schedule in April may be lower than expected, and the upside space is limited after the demand peak in the middle and late April and May [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The limited quantity and high cost of the 06 contract delivery products drive the long - matching idea, but the weakening demand expectation in May drags down the price. Under the multi - empty game, the polysilicon futures market has oscillated and declined. Consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread in the inter - period strategy. Continuously monitor the production willingness of polysilicon factories after the price decline [1]. Other Information - **97 Silicon**: In March, the output of 97 silicon was about 15,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 26%. In April, the output is expected to further decline due to production transfer or reduction by some manufacturers. The operating rate has been continuously weakening because of the low - price of some 99 silicon products and cost inversion [1]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: This week, the domestic photovoltaic glass transaction price has slightly decreased. With the weakening of component demand and the decline in component prices, the high - price of glass in the market is under great pressure, and some enterprises have slightly lowered their quotes [1].

[table_reportdate] 铝合金期货系列专题 2025 年 4 月 铝合金期货系列专题一之 电解铝生产工艺与成本及供需情况 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 报告摘要： [table_research] 分析师：王文虎（F03087656，Z0019472） 研究所 金属研究室 Tel：010-82293558 Email：wangwenhu@swhysc.com | 目录 | | --- | | 一、电解铝定义及分类 3 | | | --- | --- | | 二、电解铝生产工艺 5 | | | 三、电解铝生产成本 8 | | | 四、海外电解铝供给难抵需求预期增量 10 | | | 五、中国电解铝产能越发接近上限而未来供给增量有限 16 | | | 六、全球电解铝潜在需求预期趋增 18 | | | （一）国内光伏行业自律生产促边际增速放缓 19 | | | （二）全球汽车贡献用铝仍存增加预期 | 23 | | （三）国内房地产需求以稳为主 | 26 | | （四）国内铝材出口或边际下滑 | 28 | | 七、2025 年全球电解铝供需预期偏紧 29 | | [table_page] 相 ...