论坛苹果：深刻教育报社可是是它们说起重创和党建党体构，已具专题文艺多行政企委员。本政告分析及这所依据的信息的实施于没干受讲，本公司和这些信息的准明生命念整体不住的来说，也不依证 新优博的信息和建议不会发生经历变。我们心办获得告的客观。公正，但文中的观点。韩社神这议议得步步，不可或任何发表这次。发觉者很非本领导提的信息是方规等发展所造成的一切后来。本公司相不负责 。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，永容书面评可。任何知何办人不得以任何到到细胞、复制和发布。如引用、消息，实注明出处考家源规、且不得时本技等进行有限界意的引用、微学和多数 数据来源:SMM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,投资需谨慎! | 碳 锂 8 评20250417:国内碳酸锂4月供给预期偏松,三元材料厂库存量较上周增加 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-04-14 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-04-15 | 2025-04-08 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | ...

沪铜日评20250417: 国内铜冶炼厂4月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会年存量环比减少 | | 变量名称 | 2025-04-16 | 2025-04-15 | 2025-04-08 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 75260 | 75970 | 73360 | -710.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 126227 | 78566 | 215027 | 47.661.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 160697 | 129458 | 160954 | 31, 239.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 101344 | 92209 | 108768 | 9, 135.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 75920 | 76195 | 73545 | -275.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 (现货与期货) | 沪铜基差 | 660 | 225 | 185 | 435.001 | | | | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | 80 | 55 | 8 ...

| 贵金属日评20250417: 鲍威尔重申美联储先观望再行动,关税恐慌促3月零售销售超预期 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-04-16 | 2025-04-15 | 2025-04-10 | 收盘价 | 37.12 | 781.60 | 744. 48 | 17.16 | 764. 44 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 449355.00 | 447203.00 | 703287.00 | 2, 152. 00 | -253, 932. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 205198.00 | 200633.00 | 4, 565. 00 | 200994.00 | 4, 204. 00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 15678.00 | 15678.00 | 15678.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250417: 低多思路为主 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 4月16日 | 4月15日 | 变化值 | 英化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1731.00 1789.00 1880.00 | 1738.00 1802.00 1890.00 | -7.00 -13.00 -10.00 | -0.40% -0.72% -0.53% -1.14% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1767.00 | 1767.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1750.00 | -20.00 | | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1890.00 | 1900.00 | -10.00 | -0.53% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1880. ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250417:内地现货走强 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/4/16 2025/4/15 | | | | | 变化值 | | | | (绝对值) | | | | | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2331.00 | 2351.00 | -20.00 | -0.85% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2369.00 | 2369.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2262.00 | 2277.00 | -15.00 | -0.66% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2455.00 | 2440.00 | 15.00 | 0.61% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2567.50 | 2542.50 | 25.00 | 0.98% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2475.00 | 2470.00 | 5.00 | 0.20% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The lead price fluctuated and declined due to macro - sentiment. Fundamentally, supply is loose and demand is in the off - season, but the shortage of waste battery supply creates a cost - demand tug - of war. Short - term lead prices are expected to be in wide - range consolidation, and macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1]. - The zinc price retraced again under macro - sentiment. Short - term macro sentiment has high uncertainty, and zinc prices are expected to be in wide - range consolidation. In the medium - to - long term, TC has room to rise, and the center of zinc prices may shift down. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 1.01% [1]. - The Shanghai lead basis was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 145 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 19.94 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.97 dollars/ton; the LME 3 - 15 lead premium was - 75.50 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.30 dollars/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 19,726 lots, an increase of 14.24%; the open interest was 30,993 lots, a decrease of 3.38% [1]. Inventory - The LME lead inventory was 283,125 tons, with no change; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 57,977 tons, a decrease of 0.69% [1]. Fundamental News - Some lead - acid battery manufacturers in South China plan to stop production for the Labor Day holiday, with some in Guangdong planning at least 7 days off [1]. - High prices of antimony and tin have increased the cost of lead alloy smelters, and some have cut production by 30% [1]. - The supply of waste lead - acid batteries is tight, and a smelter in the main recycled lead production area has raised the purchase price twice this week but only received two trucks of goods [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.75% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 1.81% [1]. - The Shanghai zinc basis was 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan/ton; the Shanghai zinc premium decreased in different regions, and the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 12.50 dollars/ton, an increase of 10.88 dollars/ton; the LME 3 - 15 zinc premium was 0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.21 dollars/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 203,299 lots, an increase of 28.74%; the open interest was 126,631 lots, an increase of 11.49% [1]. Inventory - The LME zinc inventory was 190,550 tons, with no change; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 10,158 tons, an increase of 32.65% [1]. Fundamental News - An important die - casting zinc alloy factory in Central China has good orders, low finished - product inventory, and low raw - material inventory [1]. - Luoping Zinc & Electricity plans to produce 80,000 tons of zinc ingots and 18,000 tons of zinc concentrate metal in 2025 [1]. - On April 15, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 23.38 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 910 lots to 214,783 lots [1].

| 镍与不锈钢日评20250417：震荡回升 | 2025-04-16 | 2025-04-15 | 2025-04-09 | 交易日期（日） | 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 124140.00 | 124000.00 | 119060.00 | 140.00 | 124290.00 | 124240.00 | 118950.00 | 50.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 124320.00 | 124370.00 | 119040.00 | -50.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | | | 124490.00 | 124440.00 | 119090.00 | 50.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 124140.00 | 124240.00 | 118950.00 | -1 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250417：重心下移 | | --- | | 2025/4/17 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 9,800.00 -0.51% 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 工业硅期现价格 9,020.00 -1.64% | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 元/吨 | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 780.00 100.00 元/千克 | | N型多晶硅料 40.00 0.00% 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 40,265.00 -0.54% | | 基差 元/吨 -265.00 220.00 | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,800.00 -0.51% | | 元/吨 9,800.00 -0.51% 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,700.00 -0.51% | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 10,000.00 -1.48% | | 不通氧553#（四川）平均价格 元/吨 ...

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 日日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 间日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 1621.5 | | 1658.0 | -6.2 | JM2601 | 1039.5 | 1046.5 | -7.0 | J01基差 | -135.5 | -192.5 | 60.0 | | J2505 1567.0 | | 1548.0 | 061 | JM2505 | 908.0 | 905.5 | 25 | 105基差 | -78.0 | -1155 | 34.5 | | 12509 O'EBST | | 0'585T | -2.0 | 3M2509 | 985.5 | 0.966 | -10,5 | 109更蛋 | -94.0 | -149.5 | 55.5 | | J0 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - Due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations, global fiscal easing expectations, the continuous gold purchases by central banks, and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summaries by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On April 15, 2025, the closing price was 762.00 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of - 0.14 yuan and a weekly increase of 34.41 yuan. The trading volume was 447,203.00 contracts, a daily decrease of 163,545.00 contracts and a weekly decrease of 80,413.00 contracts [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The trading volume was 39,928.00 kilograms, a daily decrease of 19,940.00 kilograms and a weekly decrease of 36,902.00 kilograms. The holding volume was 199,728.00 kilograms, a daily decrease of 3,700.00 kilograms [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 7,746.00 yuan/ten - grams. The trading volume of the spot Shanghai Silver T + D was 497,504.00 kilograms, a daily decrease of 64,762.00 kilograms and a weekly decrease of 280,640.00 kilograms [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,246.90 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 20.10 dollars. The trading volume was - 185,470.00 contracts, and the holding volume was 345,990.00 contracts [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 32.31 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.03 dollars. The trading volume was - 22,225.00 contracts, and the holding volume was 62,913.00 contracts [1]. Important Information - **Geopolitical and Trade**: Japan is not ready to make major concessions to the US and is not eager to reach an agreement. EU - US trade negotiations are at a deadlock, and the EU expects the US not to revoke most tariffs on Europe. The New York state manufacturing industry has shrunk for two consecutive months, and order expectations have dropped to the worst level since 9/11 [1]. - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Congress has passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, 2025, including a 5.3 - trillion - dollar tax cut in the next decade, a 5 - billion - dollar increase in the debt ceiling, and a 4 - billion - dollar reduction in government spending. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted between August and September [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The Fed may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,050 - 3,150 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,700 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 720 - 740 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 780 - 870 yuan/gram. For London silver, focus on the support level around 28 - 30 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 7,400 - 7,800 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/ten - grams [1].