Hong Yuan Qi Huo
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工业硅、多晶硅日评:区间整理-20251024
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 05:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side still has a certain increase, while the improvement on the demand side is limited. It maintains an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper limit of the futures market. It is recommended to focus on the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton and conduct interval operations [1]. - For polysilicon, recent supply - side news has pushed up the futures market. However, considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have centralized restocking in the short term, and there is great pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may limit the upward space of the futures market. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, it is advisable to lightly go long on dips [1]. Summary According to Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,650 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.59% to 8,705 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area is entering the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises planning to reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up of northern silicon enterprises has increased. After offsetting, the total start - up has increased. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but there may still be an increase in output in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday start - up level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On October 24, 2025, the price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51.50 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feed material fell 0.04% to 52.98 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at 50.50 yuan/kg, the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.89% to 50,760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon material enterprises are maintaining the production reduction trend, but some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly in October. During the National Day holiday, market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced resources, and the market is waiting for the industry meeting in October [1]. Industry News - On October 22, the first 11.8MW phase of the 88MW agricultural - photovoltaic complementary power generation project in Tonglu Baijiang, Zhejiang, achieved grid connection, with an expected annual power generation of 15.3 million kWh, saving 0.43 million tons of standard coal and reducing 12,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually [1]. - Spanish energy company Grenergy has started the construction of the Monte Águila photovoltaic - energy storage hybrid power station in Chile, with a total investment of $264 million. It is scheduled to be put into operation in early 2027, with a planned installed capacity of 340MW of photovoltaics and a 960MWh energy storage system [1].
镍与不锈钢日评:成本支撑走弱,不锈钢逢高沽空-20251024
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 02:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals of stainless steel are loose, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that the upside space of stainless - steel prices is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: On October 23, 2025, for Shanghai nickel futures, the closing prices of different contracts had various changes. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 121150.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 93921.00 hands (+20070), and the open interest was 127005.00 hands (+5694). LME 3 - month nickel had a closing price (electronic - trading) of 15335.00 US dollars/ton, up 195.00 US dollars. The trading volume was 7337.00 hands (+5500) [2]. - **Stainless - steel Futures**: On October 23, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated upwards. The trading volume was 151385.00 hands (+52175), and the open interest was 166411.00 hands (-13119). The inventory of the previous - period exchange remained flat, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 621700.00 tons (+2300) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: For nickel, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122150.00 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13550.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports was 1053.00 million wet tons. The total inventory of stainless - steel spot was 925800.00 tons, showing a decrease of 10100.00 tons compared to the previous period [2]. Industry News - Australian Mining Project: Caedmon Mariot of an Australian mining company will conduct a general study and metallurgical test on its Mulga Tank nickel project, which is the largest nickel deposit in Australia with metal reserves exceeding 5 million tons. Western Mining Group has invested 10 million US dollars in the project, and it is expected to become a strategic asset in three to five years [2]. - Indonesian Mining Policy: The Indonesian government is tightening the application process for the Mineral Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) of mining enterprises. Enterprises need to meet administrative and technical requirements, including holding a forest - use license (PPKH) and paying a mine - restoration deposit at least one year before submitting the RKAB application [2]. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: On the supply side, nickel - ore prices were flat, port inventories decreased, nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased in October, and domestic electrolytic - nickel production increased with reduced export profits. On the demand side, ternary production, stainless - steel plant production, and alloy and electroplating demand all increased. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the previous - period exchange and LME decreased, while social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On the supply side, stainless - steel production increased in October, and the production of 300 - series decreased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to short at high prices [2].
尿素早评:低估值等待驱动-20251024
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 02:51
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report believes that the current urea is undervalued, but the upward driving force is temporarily limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn time value. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton. Upstream enterprises are already suffering losses, and further price drops may reduce their willingness to start production. In the short term, the upward driving force for urea is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, with downstream enterprises mainly replenishing inventory cautiously at low prices. Possible future driving forces include the expectation of the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On October 23, UR01 in Shandong was 1638 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan from the 22nd), in Shanxi was 1550 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and in Henan was 1550 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). UR05 was 1710 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan, 1.12%), and UR09 was 1740 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan, 0.87%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the domestic small - particle spot market, prices in Hebei were 1590 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan, 0.63%), in the Northeast were 1600 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu were 1550 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan, 0.65%) [1]. - **Cost and Downstream Prices**: The price of anthracite in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, and the price of phosphate fertilizer was 2500 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5050 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan, - 0.34%), and in Jiangsu was 5100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Important Information The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1628 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1640 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1619 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1638 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 298,840 lots [1]. Trading Strategy The recommended trading strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [1].
沪铜日评:中美贸易谈判缓和预期支撑铜价-20251024
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 02:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to supply - side disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the import index of copper concentrates in China has been negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation. The processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have initially increased, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of various copper products have risen compared to last week. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper and the LME electrolytic copper inventory have decreased compared to last week, while the COMEX copper inventory has increased. With the expectation of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, as well as the expectation of a缓和 in Sino - US trade negotiations, the price of copper is expected to be cautiously bullish. The trading strategy suggests mainly laying out long positions when the price drops, paying attention to support and resistance levels [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86070, with a trading volume of 114909 hands, an open interest of 248626 hands, and an inventory of 36048 tons. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 650, the trading volume increased by 2736 hands, the open interest increased by 15265 hands, and the inventory decreased by 505 tons [2]. - **London Copper**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10817, with a 0 - 3 - month contract spread of - 11.55 and a 3 - 15 - month contract spread of 111.99. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 158.5, the 0 - 3 - month contract spread decreased by 5.19, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread increased by 6.54 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.0855, and the total inventory was 347498. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 0.13, and the inventory increased by 1574 [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disturbances, resulting in a negative import index of copper concentrates in China. The supply of scrap copper is expected to be tight, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have initially increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week [2]. Inventory Analysis - China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, the LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased compared to last week, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Mainly lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 80000 - 83000 and the resistance level around 86000 - 89000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9500 - 10200 and the resistance level around 11000 - 12000 for LME copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for COMEX copper [2].
甲醇日评:原油上涨或推动甲醇反弹-20251024
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 02:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in oil prices may drive a rebound in methanol prices, but the extent of the rebound is likely to be limited, and it is advisable to wait before going long on methanol [1] - Methanol prices are relatively high in terms of valuation, mainly compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices; in terms of drivers, the short - term upward momentum for methanol is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drivers [1] - The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November, and subsequent drivers may come from potential supply reductions, such as the expectation of gas restrictions in Iran [1] - The trading strategy is to remain on the sidelines [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices) on October 23, 2025: MA01 was 2292 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan or 1.37% from the previous day; MA05 was 2329 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.26%; MA09 was 2285 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.15% [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average) on October 23, 2025: prices in Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia increased by - 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.74%, 0.12% respectively compared to the previous day, while prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 52 yuan/ton on October 23, 2025, down 36 yuan from the previous day [1] Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices on October 23, 2025: Ordos Q5500 was 580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.87%; Datong Q5500 was 662.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 1.53%; Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 635 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively on October 23, 2025 [1] Profit Situation - On October 23, 2025, coal - based methanol profit was 238.1 yuan/ton, down 6.3 yuan or 2.58% from the previous day; natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 472 yuan/ton [1] - On October 23, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO was - 2 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 94.59% from the previous day; the profit of East China MTO was - 770.57 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan or 3.93% [1] - On October 23, 2025, the profit of downstream products such as acetic acid, formaldehyde decreased by 5.64%, 3.79% respectively compared to the previous day, while the profit of MTBE and ethylene glycol remained unchanged [1] Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2260 yuan/ton, closing at 2292 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 704,659 lots and an open interest of 1,066,380, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: The reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol vessels arriving in the far - future is 257 - 264 US dollars/ton, with a lack of active bids and offers; the reference negotiation price for methanol vessels from other Middle - East regions arriving in the far - future is - 1 - 0.5%, with buyers looking for discounted goods and sellers being cautious. Attention should be paid to the methanol plants and shipping schedules in a certain Middle - East country [1]
碳酸锂日评:上方空间有限-20251024
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 02:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand are both strong, upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the macro - situation has improved, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts has driven the price up. However, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction has weakened, the downstream restocking has slowed down, and the demand peak may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies in the short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on 2025 - 10 - 23 were 76,180 yuan/ton, 74,940 yuan/ton, 79,480 yuan/ton, and 77,120 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes compared to previous dates [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: On 2025 - 10 - 23, the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 490,920 lots (+114,471), and the open interest was 419,147 lots (+65,916) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was - 260 tons, with a value of 28,759 tons on 2025 - 10 - 23, showing a decrease compared to previous dates [1]. - **Spreads**: There were differences in spreads such as near - month - consecutive - one, consecutive - one - consecutive - two, and consecutive - two - consecutive - three, with values of - 420 yuan/ton, 320 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively on 2025 - 10 - 23 [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Minerals**: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%), and other lithium minerals showed upward trends on 2025 - 10 - 23 compared to previous dates [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds also had price changes on 2025 - 10 - 23. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Products**: The average prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also had corresponding price fluctuations [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and the price of raw materials such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rose [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide production increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in September, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in October [1]. 3.4 Inventory The registered warehouse receipts were 28,759 tons (- 260 tons), with de - stocking in social inventory, smelters, and downstream, while other inventories remained stable [1]. 3.5 Industry News On October 14, Hainan Mining held a shipment ceremony for the first batch of lithium concentrate products at its Mali Buguoni lithium mine project. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate will be shipped from Buguoni to San Pedro Port in Cote d'Ivoire and then transported to Yangpu Port in Hainan by cargo ship. As of 2024, the estimated mineral resource volume within the mining right scope of the Mali Buguoni lithium mine under the JORC regulations was 31.9 million tons, with an average lithium carbonate grade of 1.00% [1].
碳酸锂日评20251023:上方空间有限-20251023
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 05:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On October 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The current supply and demand are both strong, with limited inventory pressure upstream. However, the expectation of reduced ore supply has weakened, downstream destocking has slowed, and the demand inflection point may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short at the upper edge of the short - term range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 22, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 76,180.00 yuan/ton, 76,780.00 yuan/ton, 77,120.00 yuan/ton, and 77,120.00 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 380.00 yuan/ton, 1,200.00 yuan/ton, 1,140.00 yuan/ton, and 1,140.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 376,449.00 hands (+178,470.00 hands), and the open interest was 353,231.00 hands (+43,032.00 hands). The inventory was 29,019.00 tons (-873.00 tons) [1]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,350.00 yuan/ton (+250.00 yuan/ton), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 72,100.00 yuan/ton (+250.00 yuan/ton). The basis was - 2,770.00 yuan/ton (-890.00 yuan/ton), and the basis discount widened. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [1]. Cost Side - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased to 857.00 US dollars/ton (+3.00 US dollars/ton), and the price of lithium mica remained flat [1]. Supply Side - Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. The registered warehouse receipts were 29,019 tons (-873 tons), social inventory decreased, and both smelters and downstream reduced their inventories [1]. Demand Side - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries will be tightened in October [1]. Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 132,658 tons (-2,143 tons), with smelter inventory at 34,283 tons (-464 tons), downstream inventory at 57,735 tons (-2,030 tons), and other inventory at 40,640 tons (+350 tons) [1]. Industry News - Tesla's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production line in Nevada will start production in the first quarter of 2026 [1].
贵金属日评:美元指数走强使贵金属价格承压-20251023
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:37
Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of the US dollar index may put pressure on precious metal prices, but concerns about a weakening US job market, potential future interest rate cuts by the Fed, uncertainty in China-US trade negotiations, geopolitical conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks, support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 948.84 yuan/g, down 38.05 yuan from the previous day and 18.45 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 87,610, with a position of 254,754, down 186 from the previous day and up 5,052 from the previous week [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,381 yuan/10g, down 378 yuan from the previous day and 600 yuan from the previous week; trading volume was 2,347,356, with a position of -182,550 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,116.60 US dollars/ounce, down 21.90 US dollars from the previous day and 43.00 US dollars from the previous week; trading volume was 396,022, with a position of 357,370, down 4,708 from the previous day and 16,561 from the previous week [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.16 US dollars/ounce, down 2.17 US dollars from the previous day; trading volume was -66,532, with a position of 122,583, down 3,620 from the previous day and 7,608 from the previous week [1] Important Information - The secondary lending market is in turmoil, and PrimaLend has filed for bankruptcy. The Fed is considering reducing bank capital requirements from 19% to a minimum of 3% [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, the second-longest on record. Unemployment may rise temporarily. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest [1] - The US has lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles and imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies [1] Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see. For London gold, focus on support levels around 3,900 - 4,100 and resistance levels around 4,383 - 4,778; for Shanghai gold, support levels around 890 - 930 and resistance levels around 1,000 - 1,100; for London silver, support levels around 42 - 48 and resistance levels around 57 - 68; for Shanghai silver, support levels around 9,800 - 10,800 and resistance levels around 13,000 - 14,800 [1]
沪铜日评:中美关税谈判的不确定性或使铜价承压-20251023
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The uncertainty of Sino-US tariff negotiations may put pressure on copper prices. Supply is expected to be tight due to disturbances in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, and the demand-side capacity utilization rate has increased. Considering the expected future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Fed, it is advisable to wait for the price to fall before mainly laying out long positions. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price was 85,420, the trading volume was 112,173 lots, the open interest was 233,361 lots, and the inventory was 36,253 tons. The basis was -465, and the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 84,955 [2]. - **London Copper**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,658.5, and the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -6.36 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.005, and the total inventory was 346,499 [2]. 3.2. Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation - **Supply**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disturbances, the import index of Chinese copper concentrates has been negative, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have initially increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. 3.3. Trading Strategy Wait for the price to fall and mainly lay out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2].
镍与不锈钢日评:成本支撑走弱,不锈钢偏弱震荡-20251023
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The nickel market has a weak fundamental situation with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market has a loose fundamental situation, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly. The recommended trading strategy is to short at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Price and Volume**: On October 22, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 73,851 lots (+13,460), and the open interest was 121,311 lots (+70,923). LME nickel fell 0.23%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices rose. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore increased, and the port inventory decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Price and Volume**: On October 22, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated upwards. The trading volume was 99,210 lots (-26,868), and the open interest was 179,530 lots (-8,802). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. Last week, the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 621,700 tons (+2,300) [1]. - **Supply**: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but 300 - series production decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. Industry Data - **Nickel Consumption Structure**: In 2024, global primary nickel consumption reached 3.35 million tons. The stainless - steel sector accounted for 66%, ranking first. The power - battery sector accounted for 16%, ranking second, and was the fastest - growing sector in the past decade, becoming the core driver of nickel - demand growth. From 2022 - 2024, the compound annual growth rate of nickel consumption was stable at 6%. The proportions of each sector remained balanced. The entire market structure did not show significant fluctuations. In the first half of this year, global nickel consumption continued its positive trend. From January to July, primary nickel consumption reached 2.024 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [1]. - **Inventory Data**: China's port nickel - ore total inventory was 10.5 million wet tons; SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained unchanged; SMM pure - nickel social inventory showed changes; the total stainless - steel spot inventory decreased by 10,100 tons, with different trends in 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless - steel inventories [1].