Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250911: Difficult to Break Through the Oscillation Range [1] Core Views - On September 10th, the main nickel contract fluctuated at a low level, with the trading volume of 75,060 lots (-25,275) and the open interest of 81,612 lots (+775). LME nickel rose 0.43%. The spot market trading improved, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals are loose, and the weak trading and interest - rate cut expectations are mutually restrictive. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate within a range [2]. - On September 10th, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated within a range, with the trading volume of 115,463 lots (+5,951) and the open interest of 123,168 lots (-11). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, there is support from the cost side. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate within a range [2] Trading Strategies - For nickel, it is recommended to wait and see [2] - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [2] Market Data Summary Nickel Futures Market - Shanghai Futures Exchange: The closing prices of futures contracts such as the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts changed slightly on September 10th compared with the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 100,281 lots (-25,275), and the open interest was 80,837 lots (+775). The inventory decreased by 295 tons [2] - LME: The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel (electronic and场内盘) changed. The trading volume was 4,969 lots (-1,596). The LME nickel inventory decreased significantly, with the registered and cancelled warrants both changing [2] Spot Market - The average prices of various nickel products such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The prices of nickel ore from the Philippines remained stable [2] Inventory - SMM China port nickel ore total inventory increased by 480,000 wet tons compared with the previous week. SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory decreased by 400 tons. SMM pure nickel social inventory changed [2] Stainless Steel Futures Market - The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) changed. The trading volume of the active contract was 115,463 lots (+5,951), and the open interest was 123,168 lots (-11). The inventory decreased by 246 tons [2] Spot Market - The average prices of 304/2B, 304/No.1, 316L/2B, and 316L/No.1 stainless - steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained mostly stable. The prices of waste stainless - steel also remained unchanged [2] Inventory - The stainless - steel inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The 300 - series social inventory was 61,170 tons (-11,000 tons) last week [2] Industry News - The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) granted an operating license to PT Gag Nikel in Raja Ampat Island, Papua, Indonesia. The license has passed the evaluation process of relevant departments. PT Gag Nikel is a subsidiary of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market had active low - price point pricing, and the basis premium expanded. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with short - term supply and demand both strong and the weakening expectation of supply contraction due to the active resumption of lithium mines, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to decline with fluctuations. It is recommended to go short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 10, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 70,300 yuan/ton, down 2,520 yuan. The trading volume was 751,480 lots (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 lots (-10,526) [1]. Spot Market - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary precursors showed different degrees of change on September 10. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan [1]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons. The social inventory decreased, the smelter inventory decreased, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, with the design of the 4th pond completed. The project has a phased development plan, aiming for an annual production of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - In August, Brazilian lithium spodumene exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The suspension of shipments by the largest producer, Sigma Lithium, was a major factor [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand being weak. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support the lead price. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September and positive domestic sentiment, the lead price remains range - bound [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory continues to accumulate. However, the extremely low LME zinc inventory overseas, the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3, and high capital concentration lead to the upward oscillation of LME zinc, which boosts SHFE zinc. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be range - bound in the short term under the influence of the external market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The closing price of the lead futures main contract was 16,795 yuan/ton, down 0.80%. The lead basis was - 95 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [1] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of SHFE lead was - 35 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 25 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 45,315 lots, up 48.69%. The open interest was 50,467 lots, up 1.54%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.90, up 46.43% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, with no change. SHFE lead warrant inventory was 53,689 tons, down 0.24% [1] Fundamental Information - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not yet affecting smelter operations. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead has slightly declined. In the secondary lead sector, due to the stable lead price, raw materials and losses have reduced smelter enthusiasm, expanding the scope of production cuts and reducing the demand for waste batteries [1] Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingot was 22,020 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The closing price of the zinc futures main contract was 22,215 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The zinc basis was - 195 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan [1] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of SHFE zinc was - 75 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 83,724 lots, down 16.66%. The open interest was 103,054 lots, down 4.76%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.81, down 12.50% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 50,825 tons, with no change. SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 44,329 tons, up 3.86% [1] Fundamental Information - Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 3,850 yuan/metal ton last week, while the imported zinc ore processing fee index increased to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. The demand for zinc ingots is weak, and downstream buyers mainly fix prices at low points [1] News and Other Information - Jinchuan Group Copper and Precious Metals Co., Ltd. plans to build a 20kt/a anode slime pretreatment production line with a total investment of 255.8785 million yuan and environmental protection investment of 24.45 million yuan, accounting for 9.56% of the total investment [1] - On September 9, the CZSPT held a meeting and announced the expected reference range for imported zinc concentrate processing fees before the end of Q4 2025 [1] - On September 9, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 48.13 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 156,391 lots, down 1,110 lots; the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 17.62 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 199,723 lots, down 989 lots [1] Investment Strategies - For lead, the trading strategy is range - bound operation [1] - For zinc, the short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to short at high prices [1]

| | | 甲醇日评20250911: 低位震荡,关注低多机会 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 变化值 指标 单位 2025/9/9 2025/9/10 | | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2407.00 | 2398.00 | 9.00 | 0.38% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | 2409.00 | 2391.00 | 18.00 | 0.75% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | 2265.00 | 2247.00 | 18.00 | 0.80% | | | | 太仓 元/呼 | 2290.00 | 2275.00 | 15.00 | 0.66% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2390.00 | 2360.00 | 30.00 | 1.27% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 元/吨 | 2292.50 | 2275.00 | 17.50 | 0.77% | | 及其差 | 甲醇规赏价格 | 元/吨 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250911:现货走低,关注后市逢低做多机会 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 9月10日 9月9日 | | | | | 要化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1669.00 1670.00 1560.00 | 1683.00 1670.00 1560.00 | -14.00 0.00 0.00 | -0.83% 0.00% 0.00% | | | 民素期货价格 | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1719.00 | 1733.00 | -14.00 | -0.81% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1613.00 | 1624.00 | -11.00 | -0.68% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1670.00 | 1680.00 | -10.00 | -0.60% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in the short term but may face a risk of decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The price of polysilicon is also in high - level consolidation, and the pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the terminal demand pressure is large [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.03% to 8,665 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, and the enterprise operation rate has steadily increased [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. The supply of organic silicon is temporarily tightened due to an accident at a large factory, but the supply pressure has increased recently. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to potential supply disturbances, the industrial silicon futures market strengthened again. It is expected that the silicon price will remain high in the short term. The trading strategy is to operate in the range, try to go long on dips, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - N - type dense material decreased 0.10% to 50.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material decreased 0.10% to 51.44 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material decreased 0.10% to 49.05 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 48.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased 3.93% to 53,520 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: Many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipment before the end of August, the trading volume in the polysilicon market increased significantly, and the inventory decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase is difficult [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to supply disturbances and high downstream raw material inventory, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term. The pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market. The trading strategy is to take profit on previous long positions in a timely manner and try to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1]. Other Information - On September 10, the State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company issued a notice on the market - oriented reform of the new - energy on - grid electricity price. From January 2026, the on - grid electricity of new - energy projects in the city will enter the power market [1]. - On the evening of September 9, JinkoSolar (688223) announced that its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar Energy Co., Ltd. plans to sell 80% of the equity of its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar New Materials Co., Ltd. to Dico Co., Ltd. (300842) for 80 million yuan [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pricing logic is still cost - driven. The market is worried about the lackluster peak demand season. It is expected that PX will be more affected by crude oil and show a stronger oscillation, while PTA and PR will oscillate. (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 9, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $62.63/barrel, up 0.59%; Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.39/barrel, up 0.56%; the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $597.25/ton, up 0.50%; the spot price of isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $681.50/ton, down 0.15%; the spot price of PX CFR China's main port was $836.00/ton, up 0.36% [1]. - **PTA**: On September 9, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4678 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; the settlement price was 4670 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4610 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4608 yuan/ton, up 0.28%, and that of foreign PTA was $620.00/ton, down 0.64% [1]. - **PX**: On September 9, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6726 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the settlement price was 6708 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The domestic spot price of PX was 6599 yuan/ton, unchanged. The PXN spread was $238.75/ton, unchanged; the PX - MX spread was $154.50/ton, up 2.66% [1]. - **PR**: On September 9, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5838 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the settlement price was 5834 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5820 yuan/ton, down 0.34%; that in South China was 5880 yuan/ton, down 0.34% [1]. - **Downstream**: On September 9, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6465 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5820 yuan/ton, down 0.34% [2]. 3.2 Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. 3.3 Important Information - **PX**: After OPEC +'s slight production increase was confirmed, some funds left the market. Trump's claim of preparing the second - stage sanctions against Russia made some investors wait and see. Oil prices slightly ended higher. On September 9, the CFR China price of PX was $836/ton. International oil prices were warming and oscillating, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. Domestic PX supply was expected to increase, but the overall demand of polyester was okay, and the trading enthusiasm increased during the day [2]. - **PTA**: The strong crude oil market pushed up PTA prices. Although the sales rate of downstream polyester chips was 147%, the sales rate of the main downstream polyester filament was only 44%. The signs of the peak - season start were still not obvious. The PTA spot was sufficient, and the spot basis slightly declined. The PTA processing margin has been around 200 yuan/ton recently, and some new - technology PTA devices face losses. Even if there are unplanned device overhauls, it is difficult to change the low processing fee situation. Since September, the industry's operating load has been basically stable, and the market supply is relatively stable. Inventory has been accumulating recently [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5810 - 5910 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures oscillated weakly. Most of the supply - side quotes of bottle - chips were stable, and downstream terminals followed up cautiously, with a general trading atmosphere [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - The cost recovery provides some support. The TA2601 contract closed at 4678 yuan/ton (up 0.34%), with a daily trading volume of 431,200 lots; the PX2511 contract opened high and closed low, closing at 6726 yuan/ton (up 0.18%), with a daily trading volume of 148,000 lots; the 2511 contract of PR closed at 5838 yuan/ton (down 0.10%), with a daily trading volume of 32,400 lots [2]. - Israel's attack on Hamas' senior leaders in Qatar in the overnight crude oil market reignited concerns about a wider military conflict in the Middle East, causing international oil prices to rise. It is expected that PX will be more affected by crude oil and show a stronger oscillation, while PTA and PR will oscillate [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate downward in the short - term. The active promotion of the resumption of production at the Zhuxiwo lithium mine weakens the supply contraction expectation. It is recommended to go short at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 9, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three, and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures all decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 72,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,440 yuan compared to September 8 [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on September 9 was 591,675 lots, a decrease of 190,712 lots; the open interest was 351,340 lots, a decrease of 12,797 lots [2]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons, an increase of 650 tons. The social inventory decreased, with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and others increasing inventory [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of some lithium - related products remained stable, while the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased slightly, and the prices of lithium mica remained unchanged. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 879 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars [2]. Industry News - **Zhuxiwo Lithium Mine**: On the morning of September 9, Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting to promote the resumption of production at the Zhuxiwo lithium mine. The progress of the mining license approval is smooth, and it is expected to resume production soon [2]. - **Chilean Cooperation**: Chilean state - owned copper miner Codelco and SQM are expected to reach a partnership to mine lithium from the Atacama salt flats. The agreement still needs anti - monopoly approval, including from Chinese regulators [2]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, with the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials rising slightly [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [2].

| | | 甲醇日评20250910: 低位震荡,关注低多机会 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/9/9 | 2025/9/8 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2398.00 | 2408.00 | -10.00 | -0.42% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2391.00 | 2402.00 | -11.00 | -0.46% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2247.00 | 2248.00 | -1.00 | -0.04% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2275.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2360.00 | 2345.00 | 15.00 | 0.64% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2265.00 | 10.00 | ...

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