Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and driving factors, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying low in the future market. Considering both valuation and driving factors, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying low for the 01 contract [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 2 yuan/ton (0.12%), UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.28%), UR05 remained unchanged, UR09 decreased by 18 yuan/ton (-1.12%), and UR01 in Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small granules): In Hebei, it decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-2.34%), and remained unchanged in the Northeast and Jiangsu [1] - Spreads: The spread between Shandong spot and UR decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1] - Upstream costs: The anthracite price in Henan remained unchanged, while in Shanxi, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-2.22%) [1] - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged, the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] 2. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1669 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1671 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 292,643 lots [1] 3. Long - Short Logic - Valuation: The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - Driving factors: In the second half of the year, there are two possible upward driving factors for the urea price. First, there is an expectation of renovation of old production facilities on the supply side, with about 20% of urea production facilities over 20 years old, and the current comprehensive operating rate of urea is over 80% with limited idle capacity. Second, there is an expectation of improved exports on the demand side, and urea exports from September to October are quite promising under the background of improved China - India relations [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying low for the 01 contract [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - On September 11, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $604 per ton, up 0.12%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $688 per ton, up 0.66% [1] - The spot price of p-xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $838 per ton, up 0.10%; the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,688 yuan per ton, down 0.21% [1] - The settlement price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,688 yuan per ton, up 0.04%; the closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,600 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - The settlement price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,602 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4,615 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,620 yuan per ton, down 0.11%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $625 per ton (as of September 10), up 0.64% [1] - The near - far month spread of TA was - 86 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan; the basis was - 68 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,778 yuan per ton, up 0.12%; the settlement price was 6,766 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,782 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [1] - The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,621 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $839 per ton, unchanged [1] - The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $814 per ton, unchanged; the PXN spread was $234 per ton, up 0.03% [1] - The PX - MX spread was $150 per ton, down 2.39%; the basis of PX was - 157 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,844 yuan per ton, down 0.07%; the settlement price was 5,838 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,700 yuan per ton, down 1.52%; the settlement price was 5,700 yuan per ton, down 1.52% [1] - The market price (dominant price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,830 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 5,890 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - The basis in the East China market was - 14 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 46 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 0.58%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,000 yuan per ton, down 1.06% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,470 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, up 0.26% [2] - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,830 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Startup and Production - Sales Information - On September 11, 2025, the startup rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.71%, up 1.12 percentage points [1] - The load rate of the PTA factory in the PTA industry chain was 78.25%, unchanged; the load rate of the polyester factory was 88.25%, unchanged [1] - The load rate of the bottle chip factory was 73.27%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 65.54%, up 0.98 percentage points [1] - The production - sales rate of polyester filament was 47.80%, down 21.20 percentage points; the production - sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 71.44%, up 16.25 percentage points [1] - The production - sales rate of polyester chips was 53.63%, down 144.86 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22; two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2] PX Summary - Due to the enhanced uncertainty in Eastern Europe after the Russian drone intrusion into Poland and the continuous impact in the Middle East, oil prices rose overnight. However, EIA inventory data showed a significant unexpected build - up of crude oil, and weak demand temporarily outweighed the expected impact of geopolitics on supply, causing oil prices to weaken during the day [2] - The cost - end oil market continued to run strongly, and the domestic PX was still in a tight - balance pattern. There were promotion activities in the polyester market, and the on - site wait - and - see atmosphere intensified, with no transaction heard during the day [2] - The fundamentals did not change significantly. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,778 yuan per ton (up 0.39%), with an intraday trading volume of 118,900 lots [2] - On the supply side, the Fuzhou and Fuhua devices did not operate as planned, the load of some devices increased, and the domestic PX startup increased. Some domestic and foreign PX devices restarted one after another, and the short - process profit margin expanded, so the PX supply increased more than expected [2] - Although it has entered the peak season of downstream polyester, new orders and loads have not shown unexpected performance, hitting market sentiment. Recently, the price of naphtha has trended strongly, and the PXN is expected to run weakly [2] PTA Summary - The demand performance in the peak season was poor. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,688 yuan per ton (up 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 442,000 lots [2] - The high production - sales rate of downstream polyester filament could not be maintained, crude oil failed to rise strongly, the PTA spot supply was sufficient, the PTA market declined slightly, and the spot basis weakened [2] - The current processing margin also faces loss pressure for some new - technology PTA devices. There is new capacity release in the downstream, but due to the planned production cuts of some enterprises, the short - term market supply may remain stable [2] - Overall, the supply pressure of polyester filament has not increased significantly. In the short term, the impact of the demand side on the market price will still be relatively limited, and the market trading atmosphere may continue to be dull [2] - Although the social inventory of PTA is not high, the liquidity is relatively loose, and the weak demand has raised market concerns [2] PR Summary - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,830 - 5,910 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly, the supply - side quotation of bottle chips was stable, downstream terminals were cautious and wait - and - see, and the trading atmosphere was weak [2] - The downstream demand for PR was average. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,844 yuan per ton (up 0.03%), with an intraday trading volume of 34,300 lots [2] - Recently, the startup of the bottle chip supply side has been stable, and the market spot supply is loose. Downstream terminals continue to make rigid purchases, and the trading atmosphere is cautious [2]

| 贵金属日评20250912: 美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-09-05 | 2025-09-11 | 2025-09-10 | 收盘价 | 830. 78 | 15. 18 | 833. 42 | -2. 64 | 815. 60 | | | | | 成交重 | 165360.00 | 183319.00 | -132, 497. 00 | 297857.00 | -17, 959. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 114423.00 | 119424.00 | 132985.00 | -18.562.00 | -5.001.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 50151.00 | 43335.00 | 6. 816. 00 | 45951.00 | 4. 200. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the traditional consumption peak season may lead to a slightly stronger and fluctuating price of Shanghai copper [2]. - The continuous arrival of imported copper and the weak demand may cause a slight increase in copper inventory [2]. - The high - investment in the national power grid in 2025 can provide support for the wire and cable industry and offset the weak demand from downstream industries to some extent [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price was 80,130, up 340 from the previous day; the trading volume was 64,849 lots, a decrease of 20,309 lots; the open interest was 174,453 lots, an increase of 2,541 lots; the inventory was 20,028 tons, an increase of 902 tons; the basis was 45, up 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,051.5, up 38.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.54, down 4.93; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32, down 10.28 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.671, up 0.10; the total inventory was 309,834, an increase of 2,138 [2]. Important Information - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the domestic mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons to 14.43 million tons this week. The in - transit inventory reached a record high due to delivery demand. SMM expects that with the continuous arrival of imported goods and weak demand, the copper inventory will increase slightly [2]. - **National Grid Investment**: In 2025, the investment of the national power grid continued to be booming, with a planned total investment of about 825 billion yuan. The stable orders of the national power grid can provide continuous demand support, and the acceleration of project progress in the second half of the year will ensure the stable operation of the wire and cable industry [2]. Long - Short Logic - **Supply**: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia under Freeport suspended mining due to an accident on September 8. There are disruptions in the production of many domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative but rising China copper concentrate import index. The supply - demand of domestic copper concentrates is expected to be tight, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates tend to decline. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September has increased [2]. - **Demand**: New orders for copper enameled wires have shown signs of improvement, but high copper prices suppress the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has slightly decreased, but the in - transit inventory has increased due to delivery demand; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long orders after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.3 and the resistance level around 4.7 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

| 碳酸锂日评20250912:偏弱震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-09-04 交易日期(日) 2025-09-11 2025-09-10 较昨日变化 近两周走势 | | | | 收盘价 70300.00 73000.00 720.00 近月合约 71020.00 | | | | 连一合约 收盘价 70860.00 70560.00 73340.00 300.00 5 连二合约 收盘价 71300.00 70880.00 73420.00 420.00 3 | | | | 3 连三合约 收盘价 71300.00 70880.00 73580.00 420.00 | | | | 3 收盘价 71000.00 70720.00 73420.00 280.00 | | | | wn 砖酸锂期货 成交堂(手) 426041.00 751480.00 712151.00 -325,439.00 | | | | 活跃合约 (元/吨) 340814.00 5 持仓堂(手) 323456.00 353674.00 -17,358.00 | | | | 库存(吨) 38391.00 38 ...

Group 1: Product Price Information - Crude oil price on September 12, 2025, was $604.00 per ton, up 0.12% from the previous value of $603.25 [1] - Northeast Asia ethylene price on September 12, 2025, was $841.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - East China ethylene oxide ex - factory price on September 12, 2025, was $6300.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Inner Mongolia brown coal (tax - included) price on September 11, 2025, was $290.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] -主力合约结算价 on September 11, 2025, was $4306.00 per ton, up 0.32% from the previous value [1] - Near - month contract closing price on September 11, 2025, was $4408.00 per ton, up 0.92% from the previous value [1] - Inner - market ethylene glycol price on September 11, 2025, was $4440.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Near - far month price difference on September 11, 2025, was $102.00 per ton, up from the previous $23.00 per ton [1] - Ethylene glycol comprehensive price difference on September 11, 2025, was $103.00 per ton, down from the previous $116.00 per ton [1] - Dacron price index on September 11, 2025, was $8600.00 per ton, up 0.8% from the previous value [1] - Polyester price on September 11, 2025, was $7000.00 per ton, up 1.06% from the previous value [1] - Polyester staple fiber price on September 11, 2025, was $640.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Bottle - grade chip price index on September 11, 2025, was $5830.00 per ton, up 0.1% from the previous value [1] Group 2: Production and Operation Information - Ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate of oil - based production on September 11, 2025, was 62.95%, up from the previous 62.56% [1] - Ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate of coal - based production on September 11, 2025, was 88.81%, down from the previous 90.24% [1] - PTA industry factory load rate on September 11, 2025, was 88.28%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA textile machine industry load rate on September 11, 2025, was 65.54%, up from the previous 64.56% [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method on September 11, 2025, was $1444.79 per ton, down from the previous $1410.21 per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market was active in low - price point pricing, and the basis premium widened. Considering the cost, supply, demand, and inventory aspects, short - term supply and demand are both strong. With the active resumption of lithium mines, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 10, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 2,520 yuan/ton, 2,160 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 751,480 hands (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 hands (-10,526) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium ore decreased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 73,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The registered warehouse receipt was 38,101 tons, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other sectors increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - **Project Progress**: Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, completing the design of the 4th pond, which can support an annual operation of 400 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. The project aims to reach an annual production of 21,000 tons in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - **Export Data**: In August, Brazilian lithium ore exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The export decline was mainly due to the inactivity of Brazil's largest lithium ore exporter, Sigma Lithium [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, with small increases in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. The resumption of lithium mines is actively advancing, weakening the expectation of supply contraction [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1].

| 交易日期(日) | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 2025-09-03 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 收盘价 | 120600.00 | 120520.00 | 121450.00 | 期货近月合约 | 80.00 | m | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货连一合约 | 5 | 120850.00 | 120700.00 | 150.00 | 收盘价 | 121790.00 | n | 110.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 120990.00 | 120880.00 | 121900.00 | | | n | 121160.00 | 121110.00 | 122130.00 | 50.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | n | 120850.00 | 120700.00 | 150.00 | 收盘价 | 121790.00 | 1 | | | 上海期银 | 成交量(手) | 100281.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the future. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old facilities, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is suggested to focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the 01 contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: The UR01 contract in Shandong decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.83%) to 1669 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.81%) to 1719 yuan/ton, and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.68%) to 1613 yuan/ton [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The domestic small - particle urea prices in Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%) to 1670 yuan/ton, in Northeast China decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.59%) to 1680 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%) to 1650 yuan/ton. The price in Hebei remained unchanged [1]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 14 yuan/ton to - 49 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu all remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1692 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1668 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton, and the position was 283349 lots [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the 01 contract [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The current methanol price is oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum in the short - term due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas. However, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching peak season for traditional downstream industries, it is recommended to wait and focus on subsequent long - position opportunities [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 rose from 2398 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, a change of 9 yuan/ton (0.38%); MA05 rose from 2391 yuan/ton to 2409 yuan/ton, a change of 18 yuan/ton (0.75%); MA09 rose from 2247 yuan/ton to 2265 yuan/ton, a change of 18 yuan/ton (0.80%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in most regions increased slightly, such as in Shandong (from 2360 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, 1.27%), Guangdong (from 2275 yuan/ton to 2292.50 yuan/ton, 0.77%), etc. Some regions remained unchanged, like Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei [1] - **Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] b) Cost and Profit Situation - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Most coal and industrial natural gas prices remained stable, with only the price of Yulin Q6000 coal rising from 557.50 yuan/ton to 567.50 yuan/ton (1.79%) [1] - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 455.20 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 382 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: Profits of some downstream products changed, such as acetic acid rising from 441.65 yuan/ton to 456.15 yuan/ton (3.28%), formaldehyde rising from - 296.40 yuan/ton to - 286.40 yuan/ton (3.37%), while MTBE and diethylene glycol remained unchanged. The profits of Northwest MTO and East China MTO decreased, with Northwest MTO changing from 2 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton (- 750.00%) and East China MTO changing from - 497.07 yuan/ton to - 527.57 yuan/ton (- 6.14%) [1] c) Trading Information - The domestic methanol futures main contract MA2601 oscillated upwards, opening at 2398 yuan/ton, closing at 2407 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 540,390 lots, and the open interest was 755,966 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] d) Foreign Information - For far - month non - Iranian methanol shipments, the reference negotiation price is 253 - 264 US dollars/ton. For far - month methanol shipments from other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation price is +0 - 0.6%, and recent transactions are at +0.2 - 0.5%. Some individuals are offering at +1%, but there is still a lack of active offers at fixed prices [1] e) Trading Strategy - Focus on opportunities to go long at low prices [1]