Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Zinc [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Analyst: Qi Yurong - Qualification Number: F03100031 - Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0021060 - Contact: 010 - 8229 5006 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Macro sentiment has improved, and overseas inventories have continued to decline. The backwardation structure of LME zinc has deepened, driving SHFE zinc to oscillate upward. However, domestic demand remains weak, and although social inventory accumulation has temporarily stopped, it is still at a relatively high level. There is still pressure on the upside of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: SMM 1 zinc ingot average price rose 1.56% to 22,120 yuan/ton; SHFE zinc main contract closing price rose 2.48% to 22,355 yuan/ton; LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 2.62% to 3,019.5 US dollars/ton [12] - **Basis and Spread**: Data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading - to - holding ratio, and various spreads in different regions and contract months are presented, but no specific summary data is given [14][16] 2. Winter Stockpiling + High Refinery Operation, TC Decline 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Port Inventory**: As of October 24, the inventory of imported zinc concentrate at Lianyungang Port was 150,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 391,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,800 tons [25] - **Profit**: As of October 23, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,224 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4,008,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [32] - **TC**: The CZSPT group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton. Domestic TC has been declining, with the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropping from 3,650 yuan/metal ton in late September to 3,250 yuan/metal ton on October 24 [33][36] 2.2 Refined Zinc - **Production**: Zinc prices have rebounded, but TC has declined, and the production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to fall. As of October 23, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 694 yuan/ton. In September, the domestic refined zinc output was about 600,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [44] - **Import**: The import profit window is closed. As of October 24, the import profit of refined zinc was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons [47] 3. Demand Falling Short of Expectations, Slight Decline in Galvanizing Operation - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 0.57 percentage points to 57.48%. Black prices were lackluster, and terminal procurement was less than expected. Galvanizing enterprises reduced their operation to prevent excessive inventory, and some enterprises may further cut production [54] - **Inventory**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high zinc prices and cautious procurement by downstream users. Finished product inventory increased due to poor demand [57] 4. Poor Demand, Accumulation of Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Finished Products - **Price**: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys increased. Zamak3 zinc alloy average price rose 1.51% to 22,815 yuan/ton, and Zamak5 zinc alloy average price rose 1.48% to 23,365 yuan/ton [63] - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 53.13%. Terminal demand weakened, leading to a decline in alloy operation. Some enterprises arranged holidays to consume finished product inventory, and the sector's operation may further decline [66] - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory increased as there were long - term order arrivals during the week despite high zinc prices and cautious procurement. Finished product inventory increased due to poor terminal demand and slow shipment [69] 5. Production and Sales in Balance, Slight Fluctuation in Zinc Oxide Finished Product Inventory - **Price**: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% increased by 1.43% to 21,300 yuan/ton [77] - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.77 percentage points to 56.36%. Some enterprises were affected by recent meetings, and the operating rate declined. It is expected to return to normal this week, and the operation rate may rise with the resumption of some enterprises that had holidays during the National Day [80] - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory decreased due to high zinc prices and relatively high prices of some raw materials. Finished product inventory increased slightly as enterprises basically maintained a balance between production and sales [83] 6. High Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots - **SHFE and LME Inventory**: As of October 23, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 153,000 tons, with slight fluctuations. The inventory in Shanghai decreased due to fast downstream pick - up, while the inventory in Tianjin increased significantly due to more weekend arrivals, and the inventory in Guangdong reached a nearly three - year high. As of October 24, SHFE inventory was 109,200 tons, showing a decline. As of October 23, LME inventory was 37,600 tons, continuing to decline [92][95] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the situation of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from January 2024 to August 2025 [101]

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys" [1] Core Viewpoint - The easing of Sino-US trade relations and the decline in domestic social inventories have made aluminum prices cautiously bullish [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Section Alumina - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The construction of China National Aluminum's Guixi Nadou sedimentary bauxite mine has started, with an expected annual output of 800,000 physical tons. The first phase of the bauxite recycling project in Qingzhen City has started producing 440,000 tons of aluminum concentrate per year. The production of domestic bauxite in October may increase month-on-month. Several alumina projects are under construction or in production, which may increase the domestic alumina production in October [3][18][26] - Overseas: The third-phase project of Nanshan Aluminum's Bintan Alumina in Indonesia with a capacity of 1 million tons started trial production in early May and is expected to reach full production in 2025. The overseas alumina production in October may increase, and the domestic alumina imports in October may increase month-on-month [3][35] - **Demand Side** - The matching surplus of China's alumina operating capacity compared to electrolytic aluminum in September has expanded month-on-month [3][26] - **Inventory** - The total inventory of China's alumina has increased compared to last week, including the inventory in ports, warehouses, and factories [15][17][27] - **Price and Cost** - The alumina basis is positive, and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range. The near-far month contract closing prices show a Contango structure. The average daily full production cost of China's alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton [12][22][14] - **Investment Strategy** - The domestic alumina supply and demand are expected to be loose, but production losses may limit the downside of alumina prices. Investors are advised to wait for the price to rise to a high level to lay out short positions, paying attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,600 [4] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The first phase of the energy-saving renovation project of Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Electrolytic Aluminum's second phase has started production, and the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum's green power aluminum project is expected to be put into production in December 2025. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October may increase month-on-month. The import volume in October may also increase month-on-month due to the restart of overseas capacities [5][56][60] - Overseas: Several overseas electrolytic aluminum projects are restarting or expanding production [60] - **Demand Side** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has remained flat compared to last week. The production of remelted rods (aluminum rods) in October may increase month-on-month [5] - **Inventory** - The social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory in bonded areas, LME, and COMEX has also decreased [45][46] - **Price and Cost** - The Shanghai aluminum basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,080 yuan/ton [39][41][56] - **Investment Strategy** - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and the increasing proportion of domestic electrolytic aluminum molten aluminum production leading to a decline in inventories may make Shanghai aluminum prices cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when the price drops, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [6] Aluminum Alloys - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The production of domestic scrap aluminum in October may increase month-on-month, while the import volume may decrease. The production of primary (recycled, ADC12) aluminum alloys in October may decrease month-on-month [7][70][81] - Overseas: The competition for overseas scrap aluminum procurement is fierce, and the export of scrap aluminum to China has declined [7] - **Demand Side** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased compared to last week [90] - **Inventory** - The social inventory of China's aluminum alloys has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has also decreased [86][81] - **Price and Cost** - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The daily full production cost of China's primary aluminum alloy is 20,920 yuan/ton, and that of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,700 yuan/ton [64][75][78] - **Investment Strategy** - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and the expected tight supply and demand of domestic scrap aluminum may make aluminum alloy prices cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when the price drops or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys with a light position in the short term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [8]

| 尿素早评20251027: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 10月24日 10月23日 单位 | | (绝对值) | 变化值 | 英化值 (相对值) | | UR01 元/吨 1642.00 1638.00 山东 元/吨 1570.00 1550.00 山西 元/吨 1500.00 1480.00 | | | 4.00 20.00 20.00 | | | UR05 元/吨 1719.00 1710.00 尿素期货价格 | | | 9.00 | 0.24% 0.53% | | (收盘价) UR09 元/吨 1748.00 1740.00 | | | 8.00 | 0.46% | | | | | | 1.29% | | | 期现价格 | | | 1.35% | | 河南 元/吨 1570.00 1550.00 国内现货价格 | | | 20.00 | 1.29% | | (小顆粒) 元/吨 河北 1600.00 1590.00 | | | 10.00 | 0.63% | | 东北 元/吨 1600.00 1600.00 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The expected tight supply of domestic tin ore supports the tin price. The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, Indonesia, and the decreasing domestic tin concentrate processing fees may indicate a tight supply - demand situation. Despite the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, the supply - demand tightness may not change, and the Fed's expected future interest rate cuts and the end of balance - sheet reduction, along with the preliminary Sino - US economic and trade negotiation plan, may make the Shanghai tin price trend stronger [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On October 24, 2025, the closing price was 281,230, up 1,890 from the previous day; the trading volume was 70,781 lots; the open interest was 38,076 lots; the inventory was 5,567 tons. The Shanghai tin basis (SMM 1 tin average price - futures price) was - 2,400, down 1,170 from the previous day. The spreads between different - month contracts also changed [1] - **LME Tin Futures**: On October 24, 2025, the LME 3 - month tin futures closing price (electronic trading) was 35,725, down 75 from the previous day. The LME tin futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 129, up 43 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 203.4, up 10 from the previous day. The LME tin global inventory was 2,750 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Myanmar's Wa State tin mines are resuming production slowly, and Indonesia has closed 1,000 illegal tin mines. The decreasing domestic tin concentrate processing fees may indicate a tight supply - demand situation. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased (or remained flat) compared with last week [1] - **Demand**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month. High tin prices have led downstream buyers to make fewer purchases on a just - in - time basis [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China has decreased compared with last week; the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased compared with last week [1] 3. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long positions after the price retreats. Pay attention to the support level around 260,000 - 270,000 and the resistance level around 290,000 - 300,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 33,000 - 35,000 and the resistance level around 38,000 - 40,000 for London tin [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The rebound of methanol prices is limited, and it is still necessary to wait before going long on methanol. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefins, and the short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. The inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and the subsequent possible driving force lies in the possible reduction on the supply side, such as the gas - restriction expectation in Iran [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Cost Data - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2292.00 yuan/ton to 2272.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton (-0.87%); MA05 decreased from 2329.00 yuan/ton to 2317.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.52%); MA09 decreased from 2285.00 yuan/ton to 2282.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.00 yuan/ton (-0.13%) [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The price in Taicang decreased from 2240.00 yuan/ton to 2235.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.22%) [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Port Water Cargo Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 238.10 yuan/ton to 231.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.30 yuan/ton (-2.65%); natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 472.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit of Methanol**: Northwest MTO profit increased from - 2.00 yuan/ton to 13.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.00 yuan/ton (750.00%); East China MTO profit increased from - 770.57 yuan/ton to - 727.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 43.50 yuan/ton (5.65%); acetic acid profit decreased from 477.00 yuan/ton to 468.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.00 yuan/ton (-1.89%); MTBE, formaldehyde, and other downstream product profits remained unchanged [1]. 2. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Price**: The main methanol contract MA2601 weakened. It opened at 2294 yuan/ton, closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 603,000 lots and an open interest of 1,080,950 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The US dollar - denominated methanol market declined steadily. Some November - arriving cargoes from a Middle - Eastern country decreased by 2.5%. Sellers were under great sales pressure and had to reduce prices passively. The reference price in China was 239 - 263 US dollars/ton [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The easing of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar index may put pressure on precious metal prices; concerns about the weakening of the US employment market, the expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the difficult - to - solve crisis of the US federal government shutdown, geopolitical risks, and the continuous gold - buying by global central banks support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 935.33 yuan/gram, down 38.37 yuan from the previous value; the trading volume was 71,850, and the position was 259,636 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,317 yuan/ten - grams, down 146 yuan; the trading volume was - 29,842, and the position was 3,830,738 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4,126.90 US dollars/ounce, down 16.30 US dollars; the trading volume was 291,961, and the position was 372,229 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 48.65 US dollars/ounce, down 0.24 US dollars; the trading volume was 72,046, and the position was 115,483 [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 4,143.75 US dollars/ounce, down 39.35 US dollars [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 48.01 US dollars/ounce, down 1.10 US dollars [1] Important Information - Trump promotes MAGA and protects the market, often using high - tariff announcements as leverage and then reducing them [1] - Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns [1] Long - Short Logic - Positive factors: Concerns about the weakening of the US employment market increase the expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and may approach the end of balance - sheet reduction; the difficult - to - solve crisis of the US federal government shutdown; geopolitical risks; the expansion expectation of fiscal deficits in many countries; and the continuous gold - buying by global central banks [1] - Negative factors: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation reached a preliminary plan, the US credit crisis eased, and the strengthening of the US dollar index [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly layout long positions. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,820 - 3,950 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 840 - 870 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 950 - 1,000 yuan/gram; for London silver, focus on the support level around 42 - 46 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 50 - 55 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,800 - 10,800 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 11,600 - 12,400 yuan/ten - grams [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, there is an increase in both supply and demand, but refinery operations fall short of expectations due to factors like raw materials, resulting in tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has broken through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. With good refinery profits and an open import window, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply, and there is a need to be vigilant against a potential sharp decline in lead prices [1] - For the zinc market, the macro sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making domestic TC difficult to increase. The zinc price has received some support and is fluctuating upwards. With the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the persistent LME 0 - 3 back structure, attention should be paid to overseas structural risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract was 17,595 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic session) was 2,016.50 dollars/ton, up 0.22% [1] - The lead basis was - 295 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous lead futures contract was 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous lead futures contract was 45 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 79,514 lots, up 7.44%; the open interest was 83,846 lots, up 260.04%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.95, down 70.16% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 235,375 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 23,048 tons, down 2.89% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.57%, up 0.93 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 42.2%, up 7.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.36%, up 0.39 percentage points [1] - A secondary lead refinery in East China has decided to temporarily halt production, with only a small number of long - term orders to be fulfilled, and the resumption date is undetermined [1] Investment Strategy - A short position can be lightly established at high levels [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,120 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic session) was 3,019.50 dollars/ton, down 0.10% [1] - The zinc basis was - 235 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous zinc futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous zinc futures contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 130,461 lots, down 20.62%; the open interest was 120,167 lots, down 3.67%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.09, down 17.60% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 65,849 tons, up 0.49% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 57.48%, down 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 53.13%, down 1.50 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.36%, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - On October 23rd, the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 221,889 lots, an increase of 300 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, with supply still showing a certain increase and limited improvement in demand, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. The support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton should be monitored, and continuous attention should be paid to industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. - For polysilicon, recent supply - side news has led to an upward movement in the market. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, there is limited possibility of centralized restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may restrict the upside space of the market. Continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.47% to 8,920 yuan/ton [1]. - The prices of non - oxygenated 553 and oxygenated 553 in different regions (Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. Supply and Demand - In October, the southwest production area has entered the high - cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises will gradually reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up of northern silicon enterprises has increased. After offsetting, the total start - up has increased [1]. - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but there may be an increase in production in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday start - up level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The industrial silicon market is in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the market. The support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton should be monitored. The trading strategy is range operation [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51.50 yuan/kg; N - type re - feed material decreased 0.04% to 52.98 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.04% to 52,305 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but some may have new production capacity, and it is expected that the output will still increase slightly in October. On the demand side, the market was quiet during the National Day, with few new transactions, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced resources [1]. Investment Strategy - The polysilicon market has moved up recently due to supply - side news. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, there is limited possibility of centralized restocking in the short term. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, light - position buying on dips can be considered [1]. Other Information - As of October 23, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 559,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - In September, automobile exports exceeded 600,000 vehicles, with new energy vehicle exports maintaining a rapid growth trend. From January to September 2025, automobile exports reached 4.95 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent rise in oil prices may drive a rebound in methanol prices, but the magnitude is likely to be limited. It's advisable to wait before going long on methanol. Methanol prices are relatively high in terms of valuation compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices. In terms of short - term upward drivers, they are also limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drivers. The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November, and potential future drivers mainly lie in possible supply reductions such as the expected gas restrictions in Iran. Overall, it's recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 increased from 2261 yuan/ton to 2292 yuan/ton, a rise of 31 yuan/ton or 1.37%; MA05 rose from 2300 yuan/ton to 2329 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton or 1.26%; MA09 increased from 2259 yuan/ton to 2285 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 1.15% [1] - **Methanol Regular Prices (Daily Averages)**: Prices in Shandong, Guangdong, and Shaanxi increased, with Shaanxi rising 15 yuan/ton or 0.74%. Prices in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged, while the price in Inner Mongolia increased by 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.12%. The price in Taicang decreased by 5 yuan/ton or 0.22% [1] - **Spread**: The spread between Taicang spot and MA decreased from - 16 yuan/ton to - 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased from 575 yuan/ton to 580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.87%; the price of Datong Q5500 rose from 652.5 yuan/ton to 662.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 1.53%. The price of Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 244.4 yuan/ton to 238.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.3 yuan/ton or 2.58%. Natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 472 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit increased from - 37 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, a rise of 35 yuan/ton or 94.59%. East China MTO profit increased from - 802.07 yuan/ton to - 770.57 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton or 3.93% [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid profit decreased from 505.52 yuan/ton to 477 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.52 yuan/ton or 5.64%. Formaldehyde profit decreased from - 263.6 yuan/ton to - 273.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 3.79%. MTBE and ethylene glycol profits remained unchanged [1] 3.4 Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2260 yuan/ton and closing at 2292 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 704,659 lots, and open interest was 1,066,380, with increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price for non - Iranian methanol vessels arriving in the far - month is 257 - 264 US dollars/ton. There is a lack of active bids and offers. For methanol vessels from other Middle - East regions arriving in the far - month, the reference negotiation is at - 1 - 0.5%. Buyers intend to purchase discounted goods, but sellers are cautious. Attention should be paid to the methanol plants and cargo - discharging situation in a Middle - East country [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead Market**: The lead market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. However, refinery operations are below expectations due to factors such as raw materials, leading to tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has strongly rallied, breaking through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of the lead price falling after a sharp rise [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making the domestic TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) more likely to fall than rise. The zinc price has received some support at the bottom and has rebounded in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to overseas structural risks as the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens with the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,615 yuan/ton, up 2.65%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 155.10% to 74,008 lots, while the open interest decreased by 12.28% to 23,288 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 239,750 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.98% to 23,734 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, refineries that had previous maintenance have gradually resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is good, increasing demand [1]. - **Industry News**: According to the rules of the electric bicycle trade - in activity in Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province in 2025, individual consumers can get a one - time subsidy of 500 yuan when they trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones priced at 1,500 yuan or more. Starting from October 29, 2025, subsidy qualification vouchers will be publicly distributed through the "Yuehuanxin" platform on the Cloud Flash Pay APP. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 39.73 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 963 lots to 152,853 lots [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,030 yuan/ton, up 0.92%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,345 yuan/ton, up 1.57%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 60.71% to 164,360 lots, while the open interest decreased by 5.99% to 124,740 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 34,700 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.49% to 65,529 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores, and the domestic TC in October may still decline. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, but with the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. - **Industry News**: On October 22, Boliden announced its Q3 2025 results. The overall output of its lead - zinc concentrate increased quarter - on - quarter. However, the output of the Tara mine climbed slower than expected due to seasonal factors, lower - than - expected mine development progress, and an unplanned power outage. Boliden reduced its annual planned grinding volume from 1.8 million tons to 1.6 million tons. SMM expects the annual zinc concentrate output to be reduced by about 0.5 - 10,000 metric tons and the lead concentrate output to be reduced by about 2,000 metric tons. In the smelting segment, the refined zinc output of the Odda smelter decreased quarter - on - quarter, and SMM expects its actual output in 2025 to be about 170,000 - 180,000 tons. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 338.74 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2,424 lots to 221,589 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Consider lightly shorting at high prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [1].