Hong Yuan Qi Huo
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铅锌日评:沪铅或有承压,沪锌关注海外结构性风险-20251015
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 02:07
| | | | | 铅锌日评20251015:沪铅或有承压;沪锌关注海外结构性风险 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/15 | | 指标 单位 | | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 元/吨 | 16,875.00 | -0.30% | | | 沪铅期现价格 | | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,050.00 | -0.26% | | | | | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -175.00 | -5.00 | | | | | 升贴水-上海 | 元/吨 | | - - | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -45.35 | -7.13 | | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 | -69.40 | 5.80 | | | 价差 | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | - | -5.00 | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 元/吨 | -10.00 | 5.00 | | | 铅 | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 元/吨 | - ...
工业硅、多晶硅日评:或有压力-20251015
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 01:20
祁玉蓉(F03100031, Z0021060),联系电话:010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251015:或有压力 | | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/10/15 指标 | | 不通氧553#(华东)平均价格 元/吨 9,300.00 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,520.00 -3.24% | | 元/吨 基差(华东553#-期货主力) 780.00 285.00 | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 51.25 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 49,990.00 2.56% | | 基差 元/吨 1,260.00 -1,250.00 | | 元/吨 9,300.00 0.00% 不通氧553#(华东)平均价格 | | 不通氧553#(黄埔港)平均价格 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | 不通氧553#(天津港)平均价格 元/吨 9,250.00 0.00% | | 9,350.00 0.00% 不通氧553#(昆明)平均价格 元/吨 | | 不通氧553#(四川)平均价格 元/吨 8, ...
有色金属周报:基本面压制,弱势震荡-20251014
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 08:40
Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold [5][95] - Stainless Steel: Sell on rallies [6][121] Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals are loose, with large inventory pressure and reduced market risk appetite. However, the nickel valuation is low. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [5][95]. - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals are weak, with inventory accumulation and loose cost support. It is expected that stainless steel will fluctuate weakly [6][121]. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel rose 0.49% weekly after surging and then falling. The trading volume reached 289,900 lots (+65,000), and the open interest reached 77,800 lots (+1,700). LME nickel fell 1.41% weekly, and the trading volume was 41,000 lots (+14,800) [11]. - The basis premium was 1,040 yuan/ton [13]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ore remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21]. - In August, the nickel ore export volume from the Philippines increased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.35 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.8% and a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [26]. - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume increased by 180,300 tons month-on-month, and the port inventory increased by 670,000 wet tons [28]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 3 yuan/nickel point, and the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 50 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel widened [32]. - In August, China's nickel pig iron imports were 874,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.6% and a year-on-year increase of 67.4%. The import volume is expected to increase slightly in September [35]. - BF profit contracted, but the operating rate increased; RKEF losses widened, and the operating rate decreased [39]. - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [43]. - Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [45]. 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased [49]. - The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded [53]. - In August, both the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [57]. 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In October, the stainless steel production schedule increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased [63][110]. - In August, the stainless steel export volume increased by 7.6% month-on-month and decreased by 8.2% year-on-year; the import volume increased by 60.5% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year. The import and export volumes are expected to decline in September [67][113]. 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel fell, the price of nickel sulfate rose, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel expanded. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [72]. - In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month-on-month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% and year-on-year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively [77][79]. - In August, the production and sales volumes of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of 11.9% and 10.5% and year-on-year increases of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively [85]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, the SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. The Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social total inventory increased by 2,866 tons [86][91]. 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of preparing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP increased. The cost advantage of MHP integrated preparation of electrowinning nickel over nickel matte integrated preparation is obvious [94]. 1.5 Market Outlook - Nickel - Strategy: Hold - Operating Range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton - Logic: The supply side shows flat nickel ore prices, increased arrival volume, and port inventory accumulation; domestic iron mills' losses widen, production schedules decrease, while Indonesian iron mills' production schedules increase, and nickel pig iron inventory accumulates; domestic refined nickel production schedules increase, and export profits expand. The demand side shows increased production schedules of ternary materials and precursors, increased stainless steel mill production schedules, and stable alloy electroplating demand. The inventory side shows increased pure nickel social inventory and flat bonded area inventory [5][95]. 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures fluctuated within a range, falling 0.04% weekly. The basis widened to 1,110 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 159,300 lots (-132,100), and the open interest was 53,400 lots (+14,400) [99]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome fell, and the cost support weakened [102]. - The 200 - series stainless steel turned from profit to loss, the 300 - series losses widened, and the 400 - series losses narrowed [106]. 2.3 Fundamentals - In October, the stainless steel production schedule increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased [110]. - In August, the stainless steel export volume increased by 7.6% month-on-month and decreased by 8.2% year-on-year; the import volume increased by 60.5% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year. The import and export volumes are expected to decline in September [113]. 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic stainless steel social inventory accumulated, and the inventories of the 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series all increased [119]. 2.5 Market Outlook - Stainless Steel - Strategy: Sell on rallies - Operating Range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton - Logic: The fundamentals show increased stainless steel mill production schedules, decreased 300 - series production schedules, and weak terminal demand. The cost support is loose, and the inventory accumulates [6][121].
炼厂复产,铅市供应偏紧格局有所改善
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 08:03
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View After the holiday, refinery production resumed, and downstream industries also restarted, leading to an increase in both supply and demand in the lead market. However, due to pre - holiday inventory preparation by downstream enterprises and general terminal demand, most enterprises adopted a production - to - order model. As a result, lead ingot transactions were average, and with the addition of imported supplies, there was a high risk of lead ingot inventory accumulation, which might put pressure on prices. The price was expected to operate in the range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and there was a need to be vigilant against price pullbacks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.74% to 16,925 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 1.18% to 17,140 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.44% to 2,014.5 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: The provided content shows the basis trends from 2022 - 2025, but specific analysis is not given [14]. 3.2 Primary Lead Supply - **Raw Material Tightness**: The tight supply of lead concentrates remained unchanged. Domestic mines had completed fourth - quarter output pre - sales and suspended quotes. After the holiday, the ore trading market was not active. With the cooling weather, the output of some mines might decline. Meanwhile, refineries were still highly motivated to produce due to high precious metal prices. The processing fees for lead concentrates were likely to fall rather than rise. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at - 110 US dollars/dry ton [2][31]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of primary lead remained unchanged at 68.47% compared to the previous period. The total weekly output of major domestic primary lead smelting enterprises in the week of October 10 was 51,550 tons, with some enterprises resuming production after maintenance [32][37]. 3.3 Secondary Lead Supply - **Waste Battery Price and Refinery Profit**: As of October 10, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead refineries remained stable. As of October 13, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 45 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 259 yuan/ton [43][50]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: As of October 9, the raw material inventory of secondary lead refineries increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 5.6 percentage points to 34%. The weekly output of secondary lead reached 44,300 tons [53][56]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - **Lead Battery Operating Rate**: The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 6.58 percentage points to 61.71%. After the holiday, downstream operations resumed as expected, but the terminal market showed little change compared to before the holiday. The new orders for electric bicycles were acceptable, but the replacement demand was average. The automotive battery market did not have a strong peak season, especially the export sector [64]. 3.5 Import and Export As of October 10, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,800 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 530.58 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window was closed. With the increase in the Shanghai - London ratio, the import window might open in the future [73]. 3.6 Inventory - **Social and Factory Inventory**: As of October 9, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 36,900 tons, showing inventory reduction; the factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands was 10,700 tons, a week - on - week increase. Before the holiday, refineries mostly carried out maintenance, and downstream enterprises stocked up, leading to a reduction in social inventory. During the holiday, refinery production resumed, and factory inventory accumulated [87]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of October 10, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 39,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease; the LME inventory was 237,000 tons, showing an increase [90].
甲醇周报:做多仍需等待-20251014
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 07:52
[甲ta醇ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 10 月 14 日 做多仍需等待 风险提示:制裁政策变化,伊朗限气预期。 分析师:范智颖 从业资格号:F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0022690 研究所 Tel:010-82292099 Email:fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《甲醇周报20240719:重回起点之后?》 《甲醇周报 20240816:短期震荡寻底, 但不必过度悲观》 《甲醇周报 20240913:抢跑宏观预期反 弹,等待回踩确认底部》 《甲醇周报20241108:短期有回调压力》 《甲醇周报 20241122:利多或已逐步兑 现》 《甲醇周报 20241206:关注回调后的试 多机会》 《甲醇周报 20250317:甲醇估值已不再 便宜》 《甲醇周报 20250402:利多难寻》 《甲醇周报 20250514:等待反弹后的沽 空机会》 《甲醇周报 20250526:向上动力不足, 偏弱震荡为主》 《甲醇周报 20250701:择机做多 MTO 利润》 《甲醇周报 20250715:估值偏高,驱动 向下》 《甲醇周报 20250723:短期政策 ...
镍与不锈钢日评:偏弱震荡-20251014
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 07:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to the impact of Sino - US relations, weak fundamentals, and inventory pressure [1] - Stainless steel prices are also expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support and inventory pressure is not significant, also affected by Sino - US relations [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened high and went low. The trading volume was 159,070 lots (+28,206), and the open interest was 77,840 lots (-8,198). LME nickel fell 1.79%. The spot market had fair trading volume, and the basis changed from discount to premium [1] - **Supply Side**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic production increased, and Indonesian production also increased, leading to an increase in nickel iron inventory. In October, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded [1] - **Demand Side**: Ternary battery production increased, stainless - steel plant production decreased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating remained stable [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous short positions on dips [1] Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 71,114 lots (-17,081), and the open interest was 53,409 lots (-7,105). The spot market had average trading volume, and the basis premium widened [1] - **Supply Side**: Stainless - steel production in October decreased [1] - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand was weak [1] - **Cost Side**: High - nickel pig iron prices remained flat, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased. Last week, the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 619,400 tons (+33,900) [1] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [1] Market Policy - Starting from the closing settlement on October 14, 2025, the daily price limit range of nickel and tin futures contracts will be adjusted to 8%. The trading margin ratio for hedging positions will be adjusted to 9%, and the general trading margin ratio will be adjusted to 10%. The daily price limit range of butadiene rubber and natural rubber futures contracts will be adjusted to 7%, and the trading margin ratio for hedging positions will be adjusted to 8%, and the general trading margin ratio will be adjusted to 9% [1]
贵金属日评:美国财政与投资扩张预期或支撑贵金属价格-20251014
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 04:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The expectation of US fiscal and investment expansion, combined with factors such as the weakening US employment market, the ongoing shutdown crisis of the US federal government, the expansion of fiscal deficits in multiple countries, and geopolitical risks, will support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 897.74 yuan/g, with a trading volume of 63,730. The inventory was 70,728 kilograms. International gold's COMEX futures active - contract closing price was 3,912.10 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 296,956 and a position of 379,094. The London gold spot price was 4,095.95 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 11,531 yuan/ten - grams, with a trading volume of 1,701,266. International silver's COMEX futures active - contract closing price was 47.52 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 132,137 and a position of 131,902. The London silver spot price was 51.24 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Other Commodities**: INE crude oil was 479.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 63.39 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 58.24 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper futures were 85,120 yuan/ton, and LME spot copper was 10,802 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,862.5317, the S&P 500 was 6,654.7200, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,442.8700, and the French CAC40 was 7,934.2600 [1]. Important Information - The US Treasury Secretary plans to adjust the payment order to ensure the military payroll during the government shutdown [1]. - The US Department of Defense plans to spend 1 billion dollars to accelerate the purchase of critical minerals, and JPMorgan Chase announced a 1.5 - trillion - dollar US investment plan over ten years [1]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly build long positions after price corrections. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 4,065 - 4,381; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 790 - 810 and the resistance level is around 940 - 1,010. For London silver, the support level is around 30 - 37 and the resistance level is around 50 - 57; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 7,200 - 8,500 and the resistance level is around 13,000 - 14,800 [1].
沪铜日评:加征关税预期缓和和铜矿供给预期紧张支撑铜价-20251014
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 03:45
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The expectation of tariff relief and tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. Fed rate - cuts, loose fiscal policies in multiple countries, production disruptions in overseas copper mines, and the easing signal after the US threat to impose tariffs on China may make the Shanghai copper price more likely to rise than fall [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Shanghai Copper Futures - **Price and Volume**: On October 13, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 85,120, down 790 from the previous day. The trading volume was 291,422 lots, an increase of 78,954 lots. The open interest was 201,831 lots, a decrease of 14,284 lots. The inventory was 32,890 tons, an increase of 2,926 tons [1]. - **Basis and Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 75, down 845. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 85,045, down 1,635. Various copper premiums and discounts showed different changes [1]. - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 120, down 110. The spread between the first and the second continuous contracts was 0, unchanged, and the spread between the second and the third continuous contracts was 40, an increase of 70 [1]. 3.2. London Copper - On October 13, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,802, an increase of 428. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 226.78, an increase of 257.97, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 209.5, an increase of 135.30. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.8800, down 0.40 [1]. 3.3. COMEX Copper - On October 13, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.13, down 0.01, and the total inventory was 340,875 tons, an increase of 2,716 tons [1]. 3.4. Supply - Demand - Inventory - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The scrap copper supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates have begun to rise. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [1]. - **Demand**: Due to the sharp rise in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared with last week. The LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when the price falls. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 [1].
铅锌日评:或有承压-20251014
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 03:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply - tight pattern of lead has improved, with some demand released in advance in September, leading to significant pressure on lead ingot inventory accumulation and potential price pressure. For zinc, although the overseas LME zinc inventory is at an absolute low and the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens to support zinc prices, the domestic zinc fundamentals remain in a weak state of strong supply and weak demand, and zinc prices may also face pressure. The trading strategy for both lead and zinc is to wait and see [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat compared to the previous day, while the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract decreased by 0.26% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.04%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 83.41%, and the open interest decreased by 1.80%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.66%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio increased by 0.79% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, without a substantial impact on smelter operations. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, with slight fluctuations in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, smelters that had previously undergone maintenance have gradually resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market shows no significant improvement, the peak - season effect is not evident, and dealers mainly focus on inventory digestion. Lead ingot inventory accumulation pressure is large [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract decreased by 0.07%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.92%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 1.47%, and the open interest decreased by 4.54%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.70%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.98% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees may still decline in October. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with a clear trend of increased production. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio continues to decline [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1] Industry News - The Alxa League Natural Resources Bureau released a public notice on the negotiated transfer of exploration rights for the upper and deep parts of the Bayan Xibie Lead - Zinc Mine in Alxa Left Banner. The assignee is Alxa League Bayan Xibie Mining Co., Ltd., and the exploration minerals are lead and zinc. The public notice period is from October 10 to October 22, 2025 [1]. - A lead - zinc mine in Sichuan is expected to start trial production in October and its concentrator is expected to officially start operation in November, followed by market quotation and trading activities [1]. - China Railway Resources Group Co., Ltd. announced the winning bidder for the technical service of a lead - zinc mine project in Kazakhstan, which is China Nerin Engineering Co., Ltd. [1]
碳酸锂日评:偏弱震荡-20251014
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 02:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On October 13, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures oscillated at a low level. The current market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. With both supply and demand strong, low inventory pressure upstream, weakened expectation of lithium ore supply contraction, peaking downstream stockpiling, and a possible arrival of the demand inflection point, the lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is necessary to observe the situation after Jiangxi's mining end submits the output report. The trading strategy suggests waiting and seeing [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to previous periods. For example, the near - month contract closed at 71,800 yuan/ton on October 13, down 900 yuan from the previous period [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 282,178 hands on October 13, a decrease of 12,605 hands compared to the previous period, and the open interest was 207,463 hands, a decrease of 14,456 hands [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 40,329 tons, a decrease of 5,951 tons [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between near - month and consecutive - one, consecutive - one and consecutive - two, and consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts changed. For example, the near - month - consecutive - one spread was - 480 yuan/ton on October 13 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 820 yuan/ton on October 13, up 10 yuan [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other lithium ores decreased. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased by 10 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other lithium compounds mostly decreased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Other Products**: The prices of products such as ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and cobalt acid lithium also showed various changes. For example, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) decreased by 110 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Inventory of Lithium - Related Products - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory decreased. The inventory of smelters increased, while that of downstream and other sectors decreased. For example, the SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,024 tons in total [1]. 3.4 Company News - **Zangge Mining**: Its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Lithium Fertilizer Co., Ltd., received a notice to resume lithium resource development and utilization activities and officially resumed production on October 11, 2025. The temporary shutdown lasted 87 days and is expected to have a small impact on the company's 2025 operating performance [1]. - **Jinquan Co., Ltd.**: The company's brine - type lithium project is in the trial - production stage, and the Argentine project is still in the exploration phase [1].