Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Copper [1] Report Date - October 14, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - The expected tight supply and demand of copper concentrates support copper prices. The Fed's expected interest rate cut and fiscal easing in many countries, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines, are likely to drive up copper prices. However, concerns about the potential easing of Sino-US trade conflicts may disrupt the upward rhythm of Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices fall [3]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - **Spread Analysis**: - Shanghai copper basis is negative and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is positive and also within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper basis and monthly spreads [9]. - LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range, (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [10]. - COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range; LME copper and Shanghai copper spread is negative and within a reasonable range, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper spread is positive and within a reasonable range, COMEX copper and LME copper spread is negative and within a reasonable range [12]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [3][20]. - The closing of the import window may limit the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper, causing the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area to increase compared with last week [20]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [21]. Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: - China's port copper concentrate inventory increased compared with last week. The accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia may reduce domestic copper concentrate production and imports in October, with the China copper concentrate import index being negative and rising compared with last week [28][30]. - The positive domestic refined - scrap copper price difference may boost the economy of scrap copper. However, due to export restrictions in Europe and uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, domestic scrap copper production may increase in October while imports may decrease, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation [31][33]. - **Crude Copper and Anode Plate**: - Domestic crude copper production and imports in October may decrease month - on - month. The start - up rate of China's scrap - produced anode plate weekly capacity increased compared with last week, and the processing fee for anode plates increased [34][37][39]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: - Domestic electrolytic copper production in October may decrease month - on - month. Due to production cuts in Congo and Zambia and maintenance plans in Japan, domestic electrolytic copper imports in October may also decrease month - on - month [40][42]. Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - **Copper Rod**: - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased compared with last week. The processing fees for power and enameled wire - used refined copper rods in East China decreased, and the raw material and finished product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased [46][48]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory decreased while the finished product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable in October may increase month - on - month [59][61][66]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wire in October may decrease month - on - month [63][65][66]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: - The capacity utilization rate and production of China's copper plate and strip decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip in October may increase month - on - month [74][76][78]. - **Copper Tube**: - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tube decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper tube in October may decrease month - on - month [80][81][87]. - **Brass Rod**: - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate of brass rod in October may increase month - on - month [82][84][87]. - **Copper Foil**: - The AI - related HVLP ultra - low profile copper foil demand in the copper foil industry has increased significantly, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium - ion and electronic circuit copper foils in October may decrease or increase month - on - month [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, with limited improvement in demand, which may suppress the upper limit of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the supply side is still fluctuating, prices are consolidating at a high level, and there is significant pressure for further price increases in the short term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.38% to 8,805 yuan/ton [1] - Polysilicon: N-type dense material rose 0.39% to 51.25 yuan/kg, N-type re-feeding material rose 0.38% to 52.75 yuan/kg, N-type mixed material rose 0.50% to 50.25 yuan/kg, and N-type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.46% to 48,740 yuan/ton [1] - Others: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged, while the price of DMC rose 2.26% to 11,300 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - On October 13, Daquan Energy released its investor relations activity record for September 2025, stating that its Q3 polysilicon production is expected to be 27,000 - 30,000 tons, and it will make decisions on production rates based on business strategies [1] - On October 11, the Guizhou Energy Bureau announced the approved and filed wind and photovoltaic power generation projects from July - September 2025, with a total scale of nearly 6.5GW [1] Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - The supply side may tighten if northern silicon enterprises do not resume production on a large scale, but overall supply still has an increment. The demand side has limited improvement, and the market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the futures market. Hold out-of-the-money put options [1] Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - The supply side has some fluctuations, with expected production increments in October. The demand side is weak, and the high inventory of downstream raw materials makes it difficult for prices to rise further. Before the implementation of supply-side reform policies, consider lightly buying on dips [1]

| | 545698手,持仓999972,放量增仓; | | --- | --- | | 资讯 | 国外资讯： 据章创资讯、美国财政部海外资产控制办公室（OFAC）新增13家中国企 | | | 业SDN列名,并且同期制裁多艘船舶,其中7艘为经常往返于中东的船舶,加上之前 | | | 已经被制裁的4艘，截至目前11艘船舶被美国国务院制裁，占到总体中东某国运力的 | | | 12%时近。 | | | 【多空逻】 | | | 节后受制裁影响沿海甲醇价格有所反弹但幅度有限，目前供给端压力仍存，内地煤头 开工率高位，港口库存仍维持高位，需求方面节前甲醇下游短期补库动力不足，难拉 | | 小结 | 动甲醇价格上涨，传统下游旺季也即将过去，后续四季度仍关注供应端的驱动。短期 | | | 甲醇价格或震荡运行。 | | | (交易策略) | | | 观望。 | | | (观点评分:0) | | | 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料,本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的 | | | 信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2) Core View - The urea futures market saw a short - covering rally, likely due to short - term profit - taking by bears. The spot market remains dull, and the expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. Without further changes in exports and with weakening domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply, leading to continued low - level price fluctuations. However, urea is currently undervalued, and short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1610 yuan/ton on October 13, up 13 yuan (0.81%) from October 10 [1] - UR05: 1678 yuan/ton on October 13, up 12 yuan (0.72%) from October 10 [1] - UR09: 1710 yuan/ton on October 13, up 8 yuan (0.47%) from October 10 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1530 yuan/ton on October 13, down 20 yuan (-1.29%) from October 10 [1] - Shanxi: 1450 yuan/ton on October 13, down 10 yuan (-0.68%) from October 10 [1] - Henan: 1520 yuan/ton on October 13, down 20 yuan (-1.30%) from October 10 [1] - Hebei: 1570 yuan/ton on October 13, down 30 yuan (-1.88%) from October 10 [1] - Northeast: 1630 yuan/ton on October 13, unchanged from October 10 [1] - Jiangsu: 1530 yuan/ton on October 13, down 30 yuan (-1.92%) from October 10 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: -148 yuan/ton on October 13, down 32 yuan from October 10 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: -68 yuan/ton on October 13, up 1 yuan from October 10 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively from October 10 to October 13 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively from October 10 to October 13 [1] - Melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively from October 10 to October 13 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1590 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1617 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1583 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1610 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1605 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 326154 lots [1]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys [1] Report Date - October 13, 2025 [2] Research Team - Hongyuan Futures Metal Research Team, including Wang Wenhu, Dong Xiaoni, and Zhang Lei [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Concerns about potential additional tariffs between China and the US may put pressure on aluminum prices. Different segments of the aluminum industry (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloys) face various supply - demand situations and price trends. Due to factors such as Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and Sino - US trade conflicts, prices in these segments are expected to fluctuate widely. Appropriate investment strategies are proposed for each segment [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: The commissioning of domestic and overseas projects may increase alumina production in October. For example, the first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started producing 440,000 tons/year of aluminum concentrate in June, and the Yangjiagou bauxite mine of Lvliang Mining (annual capacity of 600,000 tons) was put into operation at the end of August. Overseas, the third - phase 1,000,000 - ton alumina project of Nanshan Aluminum in Indonesia started trial production in early May and is expected to reach full production in 2025 [3] - **Price and investment strategy**: Domestic alumina production is in the red, and the supply - demand outlook is loose, making the price likely to fall rather than rise. Investors are advised to short at high prices, paying attention to support levels around 2,600 - 2,800 and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,600 [3] 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production may increase in October. Projects like the second - phase energy - saving renovation project of Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai's 50,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum capacity started to restart, and overseas projects such as Huatong Cable's 120,000 - ton project in Angola may increase imports [4] - **Demand - side factors**: The capacity utilization rate of downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises decreased last week, except for the possible increase in the production of remelted rods (aluminum poles) in October [4] - **Price and investment strategy**: With the rising expectation of Fed's interest - rate cut and the increasing proportion of molten aluminum production, but concerns about Sino - US trade conflicts, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to go long at low prices, paying attention to support and resistance levels for both Shanghai and London aluminum [5] 3.3 Aluminum Alloys - **Supply - side factors**: The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may decrease in October. Although the production of domestic scrap aluminum may increase, the import may decrease due to overseas competition and geopolitical issues. Projects like Yongchun Qingyuan Metal's and Guizhou Guangyu Aluminum's are put into production, but overall production is expected to decline [6] - **Price and investment strategy**: Given the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the tight supply - demand outlook for domestic scrap aluminum, but concerns about Sino - US trade conflicts, the aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely. Investors are advised to go long at low prices or short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys lightly, paying attention to relevant support and resistance levels [6]

Report Title - **Title**: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Zinc [1] - **Date**: October 13, 2025 [2] - **Author**: Qi Yurong [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The current domestic zinc market has no substantial improvement in demand, while the supply remains loose. The fundamental situation maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with macro - sentiment disturbances, zinc prices may face pressure. Considering the continuous inventory reduction of LME zinc and the deepening of the back structure, the downward space of SHFE zinc may be limited under the boost of the external market. The operating range is expected to be between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 2.16% to 22,230 yuan/ton, SHFE zinc main contract closing price rose 2.04% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.95% to 2,984.5 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents historical data on basis, LME zinc spread (0 - 3), trading - to - holding ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange - rate impact), as well as various spot spreads and inter - month spreads [13][15]. 2. Raw Material and Refining 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 339,300 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [20]. - **Profit**: As of October 9, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,006 yuan/metal ton. In August, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 30.60% [27]. - **TC**: Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC continued to rise. The CZSPT small group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [3][20]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - **Profit**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of October 9, the production profit was - 436 yuan/ton [38]. - **Production**: In September, the domestic refined zinc output was 600,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [38]. - **Import**: The import profit window was closed. As of October 10, the import profit of refined zinc was - 3,967.74 yuan/ton. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 235,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,500 tons [41]. 3. Downstream Consumption - Galvanizing - **Operating Rate**: The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 1.83 percentage points to 46.83%. Affected by the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the operating rate declined, and terminal demand was still below expectations [49]. - **Inventory**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory increased due to the arrival of point - priced goods during the holidays, while finished - product inventory decreased as some enterprises still shipped goods despite the decline in operating rate [52]. 4. Downstream Consumption - Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - **Price**: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys increased by 2.09% and 2.04% respectively [59]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy decreased by 0.35 percentage points to 46.51%. Some enterprises were still on holiday, and terminal orders had no substantial improvement [62]. - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory increased due to the arrival of long - term orders, and finished - product inventory decreased as some downstream enterprises restocked after the festival [65]. 5. Downstream Consumption - Zinc Oxide - **Price**: The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) increased by 1.9% to 21,400 yuan/ton [72]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.24 percentage points to 56.08%. Some large enterprises were on holiday, but some downstream enterprises restocked after the festival [75]. - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory decreased as some enterprises on holiday converted raw materials into finished products, and finished - product inventory increased slightly [78]. 6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: As of October 9, the three - place inventory of SMM zinc ingots was 141,400 tons, an increase in inventory. The inventory in the bonded area was 8,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [86]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of October 10, the SHFE inventory was 106,950 tons, an increase, and the LME inventory was 37,950 tons, a continuous decrease [89]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides a monthly supply - demand balance table from April 2024 to July 2025, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of each month [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment strategy: Wait and see [5][90] - Operating range: 66,000 - 76,000 [5][90] Core Viewpoint of the Report - Supply contraction expectations are weakening, supply is at a high level, and downstream buyers after the holiday still mainly adopt a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the driving force brought by the inflection point of downstream inventory replenishment [6][91] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The basis has a premium of 810 yuan/ton [10] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Ore - In September, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,800 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%; China's lithium mica production was 8,150 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 9.2% [14] - In August, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 470,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [18] - In July, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 88,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [22] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Battery Recycling - In October, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 27,934 tons, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 30.1% [25] 1.2 Supply Side - Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 20,635 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% - In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate rose to 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.8% and a year - on - year increase of 23.5% [30] - In September, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [32] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Hydroxide - In October, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 40%, and the output was 27,020 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.8% - In August, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 5,673 tons, a month - on - month increase of 354.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 45.6% [39] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 84,467 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% - In September, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 68%, and the output was 311,670 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18% and a year - on - year increase of 59% [42] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 16,976 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% - In August, the import volume remained flat, and the export volume increased [48] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Ternary Precursors - In October, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 48%, and the output was 90,540 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% - In August, the export volume increased [53] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In October, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the output was 12,124 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4% - In October, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, and the output was 12,880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 72% [54] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Electrolyte - In October, the production of electrolyte was 200,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 30% - In August, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [62] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Power Batteries - In August, the production of power batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 37.8% - In August, the installed capacity of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.8% and a year - on - year increase of 32.4% [65] 1.4 Terminal Demand - New Energy Vehicles - In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.395 million, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 26.8% [68] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Energy Storage - In October, the production of energy - storage batteries was 53.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 40.1% - In August, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.7 GW, a month - on - month increase of 14.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 60.4%; the winning bid capacity scale was 18.65 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.5% [73] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Consumer Electronics - In August, the production of Chinese smartphones was 10.04 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4% - In August, the production of Chinese micro - electronic computers was 2.769 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [76] 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 19 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 45 yuan/ton [81] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2,024 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory increased by 1,255 tons, the downstream's inventory decreased by 1,128 tons, and other inventories decreased by 2,150 tons [86] - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3,562 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 47 tons [87] 1.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: Wait and see - Operating range: 66,000 - 76,000 - Logic: The supply of lithium mica mines in Jiangxi remains at a low level, the production of lithium spodumene increases slightly, and the import volume of lithium ore decreases. The production of lithium carbonate continues to grow, the import volume of lithium salts increases, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile declines seasonally, and the recycling end maintains growth. New energy vehicles grow steadily, the production of cathodes is stable, the production of battery cells rises, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increases, and the inventory of ternary materials decreases. The production and winning bid scale of energy - storage batteries increase. The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica decline. The overall inventory decreases, the smelter's inventory increases, and the downstream and other inventories decrease. [90][91]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply - side pressure of methanol still exists. Coastal methanol prices rebounded slightly after the holiday due to sanctions, but the increase was limited. The port inventory remained high due to high imports and shipping disruptions during the holiday. The short - term replenishment power of methanol downstream before the holiday was insufficient, and the traditional downstream peak season was about to pass. The methanol price may fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and the supply - side drive should be focused on in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Difference of Futures and Spot - Methanol futures prices: In Taicang, it was 2240 yuan/ton on October 10, 2025, up 25 yuan/ton (1.13%) from the previous day; MA01 was 2307 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.74%); MA05 was 2351 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); MA09 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.09%); in Shandong, it was 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.86%); in Guangdong, it was 2240 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.67%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average): In Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, there was no change on October 10, 2025, compared with the previous day. The difference between Taicang spot and MA was - 67 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. - Coal spot prices: The price of Bujiashike Q5500 was 510 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.49%); Datong Q5500 was 587.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.86%); Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 585 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: In Hohhot and Chongqing, there was no change on October 10, 2025, compared with the previous day [1]. 2. Profit Situation - Coal - based methanol profit was 324.80 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural - gas - based methanol profit was - 502.00 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (- 18.96%); Northwest MTO profit was - 95.40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (- 5.53%); East China MTO profit was - 652.07 yuan/ton, down 111.50 yuan/ton (- 20.63%) [1]. - Methanol downstream profits: Acetic acid profit was 588.30 yuan/ton, down 2.62 yuan/ton (- 0.44%); MTBE profit was 486.60 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (4.29%); formaldehyde and dimethyl ether profits remained unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - Domestic futures price: The main methanol contract MA2601 fell. It opened at 2321 yuan/ton, closed at 2290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 545,698 lots and an open interest of 999,972 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign information: The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added 13 Chinese enterprises to the SDN list and sanctioned multiple ships, 7 of which often traveled to and from the Middle East. As of now, 11 ships have been sanctioned by the US State Department, accounting for about 12% of the shipping capacity of a certain Middle - Eastern country [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut and the expectation of fiscal easing in many countries, along with production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, may slow down the upward pace of Shanghai copper prices due to concerns about whether the Sino - US trade conflict can be alleviated [1] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Shanghai Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper contract was 85,910, down 840 from the previous day; trading volume was 212,468 lots, an increase of 74,652; open interest was 216,115 lots, a decrease of 5,600; inventory was 29,964 tons, an increase of 261; the Shanghai copper basis was 770, an increase of 1,780 [1] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,680, up 940 from the previous day [1] London Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,374, down 402.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 31.19, down 6.29; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 74.2, down 19.97 [1] COMEX Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper contract was 4.845, down 0.24 from the previous day; total inventory was 339,525, an increase of 4,004 [1] Group 4: Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis Supply - There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, causing the China copper concentrate import index to remain negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates; the expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to an initial increase in domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [1] Demand - High copper prices have led downstream buyers to mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [1] Inventory - China's electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased compared to last week, and COMEX copper inventory has increased compared to last week [1] Group 5: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper; the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight situation has improved, some demand was released in September, and there is a large inventory build - up pressure. With the resurgence of tariff disturbances, lead prices may face pressure again. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For zinc, overseas LME zinc inventories are at an absolute low, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens, providing some support for zinc prices. However, the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak, and with the resurgence of tariff disturbances and strong macro - risk aversion sentiment, non - ferrous metals may face pressure again. The trading strategy is also to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 17,140 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 215 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 75.20 dollars/ton, with a change of - 6.90 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 36,308 hands, down 9.68%; open interest was 44,795 hands, up 9.05%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.81, down 17.18% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 30,068 tons, unchanged [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 2,014.50 dollars/ton, down 0.30%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.51, up 0.44% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, SMM primary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 68.47%, unchanged; secondary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 34%, up 5.6 percentage points; lead - acid battery enterprise weekly operating rate was 61.71%, up 6.58 percentage points [1]. - A Hunan electrolytic lead smelter planned a 11 - day production maintenance in October, with an expected reduction of 2,000 - 2,400 tons in October electrolytic lead output [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 40 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, up 33.65 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 174,778 hands, up 27.36%; open interest was 106,534 hands, down 5.93%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.64, up 35.39% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 60,644 tons, up 3.02% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,984.50 dollars/ton, down 0.98%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.46, up 0.78% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, galvanized enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.82%, down 1.83 percentage points; die - cast zinc alloy enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.51%, down 0.35 percentage points; zinc oxide enterprise weekly operating rate was 56.08%, down 1.24 percentage points [1]. - On October 10th, LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, and open interest was 220,239 hands, down 54 hands [1].