Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market was active in low - price point pricing, and the basis premium widened. Considering the cost, supply, demand, and inventory aspects, short - term supply and demand are both strong. With the active resumption of lithium mines, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 10, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 2,520 yuan/ton, 2,160 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 751,480 hands (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 hands (-10,526) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium ore decreased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 73,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The registered warehouse receipt was 38,101 tons, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other sectors increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - **Project Progress**: Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, completing the design of the 4th pond, which can support an annual operation of 400 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. The project aims to reach an annual production of 21,000 tons in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - **Export Data**: In August, Brazilian lithium ore exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The export decline was mainly due to the inactivity of Brazil's largest lithium ore exporter, Sigma Lithium [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, with small increases in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. The resumption of lithium mines is actively advancing, weakening the expectation of supply contraction [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1].

| 交易日期(日) | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 2025-09-03 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 收盘价 | 120600.00 | 120520.00 | 121450.00 | 期货近月合约 | 80.00 | m | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货连一合约 | 5 | 120850.00 | 120700.00 | 150.00 | 收盘价 | 121790.00 | n | 110.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 120990.00 | 120880.00 | 121900.00 | | | n | 121160.00 | 121110.00 | 122130.00 | 50.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | n | 120850.00 | 120700.00 | 150.00 | 收盘价 | 121790.00 | 1 | | | 上海期银 | 成交量(手) | 100281.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the future. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old facilities, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is suggested to focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the 01 contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: The UR01 contract in Shandong decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.83%) to 1669 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.81%) to 1719 yuan/ton, and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.68%) to 1613 yuan/ton [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The domestic small - particle urea prices in Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%) to 1670 yuan/ton, in Northeast China decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.59%) to 1680 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%) to 1650 yuan/ton. The price in Hebei remained unchanged [1]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 14 yuan/ton to - 49 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu all remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1692 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1668 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton, and the position was 283349 lots [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the 01 contract [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The current methanol price is oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum in the short - term due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas. However, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching peak season for traditional downstream industries, it is recommended to wait and focus on subsequent long - position opportunities [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures and Spot Prices and Their Differences - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 rose from 2398 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, a change of 9 yuan/ton (0.38%); MA05 rose from 2391 yuan/ton to 2409 yuan/ton, a change of 18 yuan/ton (0.75%); MA09 rose from 2247 yuan/ton to 2265 yuan/ton, a change of 18 yuan/ton (0.80%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in most regions increased slightly, such as in Shandong (from 2360 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, 1.27%), Guangdong (from 2275 yuan/ton to 2292.50 yuan/ton, 0.77%), etc. Some regions remained unchanged, like Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei [1] - **Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] b) Cost and Profit Situation - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Most coal and industrial natural gas prices remained stable, with only the price of Yulin Q6000 coal rising from 557.50 yuan/ton to 567.50 yuan/ton (1.79%) [1] - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit remained at 455.20 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 382 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: Profits of some downstream products changed, such as acetic acid rising from 441.65 yuan/ton to 456.15 yuan/ton (3.28%), formaldehyde rising from - 296.40 yuan/ton to - 286.40 yuan/ton (3.37%), while MTBE and diethylene glycol remained unchanged. The profits of Northwest MTO and East China MTO decreased, with Northwest MTO changing from 2 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton (- 750.00%) and East China MTO changing from - 497.07 yuan/ton to - 527.57 yuan/ton (- 6.14%) [1] c) Trading Information - The domestic methanol futures main contract MA2601 oscillated upwards, opening at 2398 yuan/ton, closing at 2407 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 540,390 lots, and the open interest was 755,966 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] d) Foreign Information - For far - month non - Iranian methanol shipments, the reference negotiation price is 253 - 264 US dollars/ton. For far - month methanol shipments from other Middle - East regions, the reference negotiation price is +0 - 0.6%, and recent transactions are at +0.2 - 0.5%. Some individuals are offering at +1%, but there is still a lack of active offers at fixed prices [1] e) Trading Strategy - Focus on opportunities to go long at low prices [1]

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250911: Difficult to Break Through the Oscillation Range [1] Core Views - On September 10th, the main nickel contract fluctuated at a low level, with the trading volume of 75,060 lots (-25,275) and the open interest of 81,612 lots (+775). LME nickel rose 0.43%. The spot market trading improved, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals are loose, and the weak trading and interest - rate cut expectations are mutually restrictive. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate within a range [2]. - On September 10th, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated within a range, with the trading volume of 115,463 lots (+5,951) and the open interest of 123,168 lots (-11). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, there is support from the cost side. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate within a range [2] Trading Strategies - For nickel, it is recommended to wait and see [2] - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [2] Market Data Summary Nickel Futures Market - Shanghai Futures Exchange: The closing prices of futures contracts such as the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts changed slightly on September 10th compared with the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 100,281 lots (-25,275), and the open interest was 80,837 lots (+775). The inventory decreased by 295 tons [2] - LME: The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel (electronic and场内盘) changed. The trading volume was 4,969 lots (-1,596). The LME nickel inventory decreased significantly, with the registered and cancelled warrants both changing [2] Spot Market - The average prices of various nickel products such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 350 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The prices of nickel ore from the Philippines remained stable [2] Inventory - SMM China port nickel ore total inventory increased by 480,000 wet tons compared with the previous week. SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory decreased by 400 tons. SMM pure nickel social inventory changed [2] Stainless Steel Futures Market - The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three) changed. The trading volume of the active contract was 115,463 lots (+5,951), and the open interest was 123,168 lots (-11). The inventory decreased by 246 tons [2] Spot Market - The average prices of 304/2B, 304/No.1, 316L/2B, and 316L/No.1 stainless - steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained mostly stable. The prices of waste stainless - steel also remained unchanged [2] Inventory - The stainless - steel inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The 300 - series social inventory was 61,170 tons (-11,000 tons) last week [2] Industry News - The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) granted an operating license to PT Gag Nikel in Raja Ampat Island, Papua, Indonesia. The license has passed the evaluation process of relevant departments. PT Gag Nikel is a subsidiary of PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market had active low - price point pricing, and the basis premium expanded. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with short - term supply and demand both strong and the weakening expectation of supply contraction due to the active resumption of lithium mines, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to decline with fluctuations. It is recommended to go short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 10, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 70,300 yuan/ton, down 2,520 yuan. The trading volume was 751,480 lots (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 lots (-10,526) [1]. Spot Market - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary precursors showed different degrees of change on September 10. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan [1]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons. The social inventory decreased, the smelter inventory decreased, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, with the design of the 4th pond completed. The project has a phased development plan, aiming for an annual production of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - In August, Brazilian lithium spodumene exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The suspension of shipments by the largest producer, Sigma Lithium, was a major factor [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand being weak. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support the lead price. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September and positive domestic sentiment, the lead price remains range - bound [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory continues to accumulate. However, the extremely low LME zinc inventory overseas, the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3, and high capital concentration lead to the upward oscillation of LME zinc, which boosts SHFE zinc. It is expected that SHFE zinc will be range - bound in the short term under the influence of the external market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The closing price of the lead futures main contract was 16,795 yuan/ton, down 0.80%. The lead basis was - 95 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [1] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of SHFE lead was - 35 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 25 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 45,315 lots, up 48.69%. The open interest was 50,467 lots, up 1.54%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.90, up 46.43% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, with no change. SHFE lead warrant inventory was 53,689 tons, down 0.24% [1] Fundamental Information - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not yet affecting smelter operations. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead has slightly declined. In the secondary lead sector, due to the stable lead price, raw materials and losses have reduced smelter enthusiasm, expanding the scope of production cuts and reducing the demand for waste batteries [1] Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingot was 22,020 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The closing price of the zinc futures main contract was 22,215 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The zinc basis was - 195 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan [1] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of SHFE zinc was - 75 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 83,724 lots, down 16.66%. The open interest was 103,054 lots, down 4.76%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.81, down 12.50% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 50,825 tons, with no change. SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 44,329 tons, up 3.86% [1] Fundamental Information - Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 3,850 yuan/metal ton last week, while the imported zinc ore processing fee index increased to 96.25 dollars/dry ton. The demand for zinc ingots is weak, and downstream buyers mainly fix prices at low points [1] News and Other Information - Jinchuan Group Copper and Precious Metals Co., Ltd. plans to build a 20kt/a anode slime pretreatment production line with a total investment of 255.8785 million yuan and environmental protection investment of 24.45 million yuan, accounting for 9.56% of the total investment [1] - On September 9, the CZSPT held a meeting and announced the expected reference range for imported zinc concentrate processing fees before the end of Q4 2025 [1] - On September 9, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 48.13 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 156,391 lots, down 1,110 lots; the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 17.62 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 199,723 lots, down 989 lots [1] Investment Strategies - For lead, the trading strategy is range - bound operation [1] - For zinc, the short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to short at high prices [1]

| | | 甲醇日评20250911: 低位震荡,关注低多机会 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 变化值 指标 单位 2025/9/9 2025/9/10 | | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2407.00 | 2398.00 | 9.00 | 0.38% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | 2409.00 | 2391.00 | 18.00 | 0.75% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | 2265.00 | 2247.00 | 18.00 | 0.80% | | | | 太仓 元/呼 | 2290.00 | 2275.00 | 15.00 | 0.66% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2390.00 | 2360.00 | 30.00 | 1.27% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 元/吨 | 2292.50 | 2275.00 | 17.50 | 0.77% | | 及其差 | 甲醇规赏价格 | 元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the future. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. In the second half of the year, there are two possible upward drivers for the urea price: on the supply side, there is an expectation of upgrading and renovating old - fashioned plants (about 20% of urea plants are over 20 years old, and the current comprehensive operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity); on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On September 10, compared with September 9, UR01 in Shandong decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.83%), UR05 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.81%), and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.68%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Henan, the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%); in Northeast China, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.59%); in Jiangsu, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%), while the price in Hebei remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 14 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged [1]. 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu all remained unchanged [1]. 3.4 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1692 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1668 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 283,349 lots [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in the short term but may face a risk of decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The price of polysilicon is also in high - level consolidation, and the pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the terminal demand pressure is large [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.03% to 8,665 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, and the enterprise operation rate has steadily increased [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. The supply of organic silicon is temporarily tightened due to an accident at a large factory, but the supply pressure has increased recently. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to potential supply disturbances, the industrial silicon futures market strengthened again. It is expected that the silicon price will remain high in the short term. The trading strategy is to operate in the range, try to go long on dips, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - N - type dense material decreased 0.10% to 50.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material decreased 0.10% to 51.44 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material decreased 0.10% to 49.05 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 48.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased 3.93% to 53,520 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: Many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipment before the end of August, the trading volume in the polysilicon market increased significantly, and the inventory decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase is difficult [1]. Investment Strategy - Overall, due to supply disturbances and high downstream raw material inventory, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term. The pressure to raise the spot price is large, which may suppress the futures market. The trading strategy is to take profit on previous long positions in a timely manner and try to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1]. Other Information - On September 10, the State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company issued a notice on the market - oriented reform of the new - energy on - grid electricity price. From January 2026, the on - grid electricity of new - energy projects in the city will enter the power market [1]. - On the evening of September 9, JinkoSolar (688223) announced that its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar Energy Co., Ltd. plans to sell 80% of the equity of its subsidiary Zhejiang JinkoSolar New Materials Co., Ltd. to Dico Co., Ltd. (300842) for 80 million yuan [1].