Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fed's September rate - cut expectation has risen, and the traditional consumption peak season has led to an initial improvement in new orders for enameled copper wire, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price was 80,130, up 340 from the previous day; the trading volume was 64,849 lots, down 9,691 lots; the open interest was 174,453 lots, up 2,541 lots; the inventory was 20,028 tons, up 902 tons; the Shanghai copper basis was 45, up 90 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,051.5, up 38.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.54, down 4.93; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32, down 10.28; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9719, up slightly [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.671, up 0.1; the total inventory was 309,834, up 2,138 [2] 2. Important Information - As of September 11, the weekly inventory of copper in mainstream regions in China decreased by 0.26 million tons to 14.43 million tons. Due to delivery demand, the in - transit inventory reached a record high. SMM expects that with continuous arrival of imported goods and weak demand, copper inventory will increase slightly [2] - In 2025, the investment of the State Grid continued to be booming, with a planned total investment of about 825 billion yuan. Stable orders from the State Grid will provide continuous demand support, and the acceleration of project progress in the second half of the year will ensure the stable operation of the wire and cable industry, offsetting the weak demand from downstream industries such as construction [2] 3. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Freeport's Indonesian mine had an accident and suspended mining, and there were disruptions in copper mine production at home and abroad. The China copper concentrate import index was negative but higher than last week, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates, and a decline in domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increased month - on - month [2] - **Demand**: New orders for copper enameled wire showed an initial month - on - month improvement, but high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased slightly compared with last week, but delivery demand increased the in - transit inventory; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased [2] 4. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long orders after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.3 and the resistance level around 4.7 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - For lead, the market shows a situation of weak supply and demand with no obvious contradictions in the fundamentals. The tight raw materials and weak demand are in a game. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and positive domestic sentiment, lead prices may run strongly within a range [1]. - For zinc, the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak. However, the low LME zinc inventory overseas, continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3, and high capital concentration lead to an upward - oscillating trend of London zinc, which boosts Shanghai zinc. Affected by the interest rate cut expectation, Shanghai zinc may be strongly sorted in the short term, but the upside space is expected to be limited due to the fundamental suppression [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On September 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.63%; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 41,772 hands, down 7.82%; the position was 49,603 hands, down 1.71% [1]. - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,996.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.48%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.46, up 0.15% [1]. News and Events - In late August 2025, Shekou Customs seized 26.5 tons of undeclared hazardous goods lead - acid batteries in the freight export channel [1]. - On September 10, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 44.17 US dollars/ton, and the position increased by 1,064 hands to 157,455 hands [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the processing fee is likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead has slightly declined. In the secondary lead sector, the operation enthusiasm of refineries has weakened, and the scope of production cuts and suspensions has expanded [1]. - The terminal market has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect has not been reflected. Dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to try long positions with a light position [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On September 12, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 22,250 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 93,321 hands, up 11.46%; the position was 100,442 hands, down 2.53% [1]. - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,905.00 US dollars/ton, up 0.61%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.66, down 0.45% [1]. News and Events - As of September 11, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 154,200 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons compared with September 4 and 2,100 tons compared with September 8 [1]. - On September 10, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 23.01 US dollars/ton, and the position increased by 1,496 hands to 201,219 hands [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc ore processing fee has been rising. Last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index increased to 96.25 US dollars/dry ton [1]. - The refinery's profit and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend. Affected by the off - season and environmental protection restrictions in the north, the operation of some downstream enterprises has weakened, and the enthusiasm for purchasing zinc ingots is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being and short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - Although the current urea price is fluctuating lower due to strong supply and weak demand, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips in the future. Considering both valuation and drivers, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. There are two potential upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old facilities, with about 20% of urea facilities over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are quite promising given the easing of China-India relations. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: On September 11, the closing prices of UR01 in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were 1671 yuan/ton, 1540 yuan/ton, and 1660 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.12%, -1.28%, and -0.60% compared to September 10. The closing prices of UR05 and UR09 were 1719 yuan/ton and 1595 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00% and -1.12% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: On September 11, the spot prices in Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu were 1670 yuan/ton, 1680 yuan/ton, and 1650 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Hebei decreased by 2.34% compared to September 10, while the prices in Northeast China and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR was -59 yuan/ton on September 11, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to September 10. The 01 - 05 spread was -48 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Costs**: On September 11, the anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi were 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Shanxi decreased by 2.22% compared to September 10, while the price in Henan remained unchanged [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, with the price in Shandong decreasing by 0.33% compared to September 10 and the price in Jiangsu remaining unchanged [1]. 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1669 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1671 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The持仓量 of 2601 was 292643 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market's supply is increasing steadily, with some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang resuming production and the southwest region's enterprises increasing their operations due to lower power costs. The demand side is mixed, with polysilicon enterprises reducing production but some having复产 plans, organic silicon facing supply and demand changes, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises buying on - demand. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain high in the short - term but may fall if polysilicon enterprises cut production [1]. - The polysilicon market has a slightly increasing supply with some new capacity and reduced production offsetting each other. The demand has increased with more transactions and lower inventory, but the terminal demand pressure and component price resistance may lead to a reverse price transmission. The polysilicon price is in high - level consolidation, and the upward pressure on the spot price is large [1]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 0.56% to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) increased by 1.06% to 9,500 yuan/ton. The futures main contract's closing price rose by 0.87% to 8,740 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: With the rising silicon price, some silicon plants in Xinjiang resumed production, and the southwest region's enterprises increased operations due to lower power costs during the wet season [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, but some have复产 plans; an organic silicon plant had an accident and stopped production, but monomer plants are recovering; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises buy on - demand [1]. Investment Strategy - The industrial silicon price is expected to remain high in the short - term but may fall if polysilicon enterprises cut production. The trading strategy is to operate in a range, try to go long on dips, and consider the 2511 and 2512 reverse arbitrage [1]. Polysilicon Price Changes - N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained unchanged. The futures main contract's closing price rose by 1.56% to 53,710 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but some new capacity may be put into use, with an expected slight increase in production [1]. - Demand: The trading volume increased, inventory decreased, but the terminal demand pressure and component price resistance may lead to reverse price transmission [1]. Investment Strategy - The polysilicon price is in high - level consolidation, and the upward pressure on the spot price is large. The trading strategy is to take profit on previous long positions and try to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented [1]. Industry News - In August, the production and sales of automobiles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. The sales were 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4% [1]. - On September 10, the State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company issued a notice on the market - oriented reform of new energy on - grid electricity prices. From January 2026, the on - grid electricity of new energy projects will enter the power market [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and driving factors, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying low in the future market. Considering both valuation and driving factors, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying low for the 01 contract [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 2 yuan/ton (0.12%), UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.28%), UR05 remained unchanged, UR09 decreased by 18 yuan/ton (-1.12%), and UR01 in Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small granules): In Hebei, it decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-2.34%), and remained unchanged in the Northeast and Jiangsu [1] - Spreads: The spread between Shandong spot and UR decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1] - Upstream costs: The anthracite price in Henan remained unchanged, while in Shanxi, it decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-2.22%) [1] - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged, the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged [1] 2. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1669 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1666 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1671 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 292,643 lots [1] 3. Long - Short Logic - Valuation: The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - Driving factors: In the second half of the year, there are two possible upward driving factors for the urea price. First, there is an expectation of renovation of old production facilities on the supply side, with about 20% of urea production facilities over 20 years old, and the current comprehensive operating rate of urea is over 80% with limited idle capacity. Second, there is an expectation of improved exports on the demand side, and urea exports from September to October are quite promising under the background of improved China - India relations [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying low for the 01 contract [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - On September 11, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $604 per ton, up 0.12%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $688 per ton, up 0.66% [1] - The spot price of p-xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $838 per ton, up 0.10%; the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,688 yuan per ton, down 0.21% [1] - The settlement price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,688 yuan per ton, up 0.04%; the closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,600 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - The settlement price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,602 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4,615 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,620 yuan per ton, down 0.11%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $625 per ton (as of September 10), up 0.64% [1] - The near - far month spread of TA was - 86 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan; the basis was - 68 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,778 yuan per ton, up 0.12%; the settlement price was 6,766 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,782 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, up 0.21% [1] - The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,621 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $839 per ton, unchanged [1] - The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $814 per ton, unchanged; the PXN spread was $234 per ton, up 0.03% [1] - The PX - MX spread was $150 per ton, down 2.39%; the basis of PX was - 157 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,844 yuan per ton, down 0.07%; the settlement price was 5,838 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [1] - The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,700 yuan per ton, down 1.52%; the settlement price was 5,700 yuan per ton, down 1.52% [1] - The market price (dominant price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,830 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; in the South China market, it was 5,890 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1] - The basis in the East China market was - 14 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 46 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 0.58%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,000 yuan per ton, down 1.06% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,150 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,470 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, up 0.26% [2] - The CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,830 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [2] Startup and Production - Sales Information - On September 11, 2025, the startup rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.71%, up 1.12 percentage points [1] - The load rate of the PTA factory in the PTA industry chain was 78.25%, unchanged; the load rate of the polyester factory was 88.25%, unchanged [1] - The load rate of the bottle chip factory was 73.27%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 65.54%, up 0.98 percentage points [1] - The production - sales rate of polyester filament was 47.80%, down 21.20 percentage points; the production - sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 71.44%, up 16.25 percentage points [1] - The production - sales rate of polyester chips was 53.63%, down 144.86 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22; two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2] PX Summary - Due to the enhanced uncertainty in Eastern Europe after the Russian drone intrusion into Poland and the continuous impact in the Middle East, oil prices rose overnight. However, EIA inventory data showed a significant unexpected build - up of crude oil, and weak demand temporarily outweighed the expected impact of geopolitics on supply, causing oil prices to weaken during the day [2] - The cost - end oil market continued to run strongly, and the domestic PX was still in a tight - balance pattern. There were promotion activities in the polyester market, and the on - site wait - and - see atmosphere intensified, with no transaction heard during the day [2] - The fundamentals did not change significantly. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,778 yuan per ton (up 0.39%), with an intraday trading volume of 118,900 lots [2] - On the supply side, the Fuzhou and Fuhua devices did not operate as planned, the load of some devices increased, and the domestic PX startup increased. Some domestic and foreign PX devices restarted one after another, and the short - process profit margin expanded, so the PX supply increased more than expected [2] - Although it has entered the peak season of downstream polyester, new orders and loads have not shown unexpected performance, hitting market sentiment. Recently, the price of naphtha has trended strongly, and the PXN is expected to run weakly [2] PTA Summary - The demand performance in the peak season was poor. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,688 yuan per ton (up 0.04%), with an intraday trading volume of 442,000 lots [2] - The high production - sales rate of downstream polyester filament could not be maintained, crude oil failed to rise strongly, the PTA spot supply was sufficient, the PTA market declined slightly, and the spot basis weakened [2] - The current processing margin also faces loss pressure for some new - technology PTA devices. There is new capacity release in the downstream, but due to the planned production cuts of some enterprises, the short - term market supply may remain stable [2] - Overall, the supply pressure of polyester filament has not increased significantly. In the short term, the impact of the demand side on the market price will still be relatively limited, and the market trading atmosphere may continue to be dull [2] - Although the social inventory of PTA is not high, the liquidity is relatively loose, and the weak demand has raised market concerns [2] PR Summary - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,830 - 5,910 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly, the supply - side quotation of bottle chips was stable, downstream terminals were cautious and wait - and - see, and the trading atmosphere was weak [2] - The downstream demand for PR was average. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,844 yuan per ton (up 0.03%), with an intraday trading volume of 34,300 lots [2] - Recently, the startup of the bottle chip supply side has been stable, and the market spot supply is loose. Downstream terminals continue to make rigid purchases, and the trading atmosphere is cautious [2]

| 贵金属日评20250912: 美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-09-05 | 2025-09-11 | 2025-09-10 | 收盘价 | 830. 78 | 15. 18 | 833. 42 | -2. 64 | 815. 60 | | | | | 成交重 | 165360.00 | 183319.00 | -132, 497. 00 | 297857.00 | -17, 959. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 114423.00 | 119424.00 | 132985.00 | -18.562.00 | -5.001.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 50151.00 | 43335.00 | 6. 816. 00 | 45951.00 | 4. 200. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the traditional consumption peak season may lead to a slightly stronger and fluctuating price of Shanghai copper [2]. - The continuous arrival of imported copper and the weak demand may cause a slight increase in copper inventory [2]. - The high - investment in the national power grid in 2025 can provide support for the wire and cable industry and offset the weak demand from downstream industries to some extent [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price was 80,130, up 340 from the previous day; the trading volume was 64,849 lots, a decrease of 20,309 lots; the open interest was 174,453 lots, an increase of 2,541 lots; the inventory was 20,028 tons, an increase of 902 tons; the basis was 45, up 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,051.5, up 38.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.54, down 4.93; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32, down 10.28 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.671, up 0.10; the total inventory was 309,834, an increase of 2,138 [2]. Important Information - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the domestic mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons to 14.43 million tons this week. The in - transit inventory reached a record high due to delivery demand. SMM expects that with the continuous arrival of imported goods and weak demand, the copper inventory will increase slightly [2]. - **National Grid Investment**: In 2025, the investment of the national power grid continued to be booming, with a planned total investment of about 825 billion yuan. The stable orders of the national power grid can provide continuous demand support, and the acceleration of project progress in the second half of the year will ensure the stable operation of the wire and cable industry [2]. Long - Short Logic - **Supply**: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia under Freeport suspended mining due to an accident on September 8. There are disruptions in the production of many domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative but rising China copper concentrate import index. The supply - demand of domestic copper concentrates is expected to be tight, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates tend to decline. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September has increased [2]. - **Demand**: New orders for copper enameled wires have shown signs of improvement, but high copper prices suppress the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has slightly decreased, but the in - transit inventory has increased due to delivery demand; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long orders after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.3 and the resistance level around 4.7 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On September 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range, with trading volume at 426,041 lots (-325,439) and open interest at 323,456 lots (-17,358). The spot market saw active low - price transactions, and the basis premium narrowed. In the short term, both supply and demand are strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not large, and the resumption of production at the Xialuokeng lithium mine is being actively promoted, weakening the supply contraction expectation. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate downward [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market Data - **Prices**: The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts showed various changes. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 71,020 yuan/ton, the closing price of the continuous - first contract was 70,860 yuan/ton, etc. The price differences between different contracts also changed, such as the near - month - continuous - first spread being 160 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 426,041 lots, a decrease of 325,439 lots compared to the previous period. The open interest was 323,456 lots, a decrease of 17,358 lots [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 38,391 tons, an increase of 290 tons compared to the previous period [1]. Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 849 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 75,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, coarse - grained) was 74,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Other Battery Material Prices**: The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 79,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 575 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, and the output of lithium carbonate made from different raw materials all increased. The Xialuokeng lithium mine is actively promoting resumption of production [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the output of ternary materials decreased. In September, the production schedule of lead - acid batteries and manganese - acid batteries increased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory Situation - Registered warehouse inventory was 38,391 tons (+290 tons), and social inventory decreased. Inventories at smelters and others decreased, while downstream inventories increased [1]. News and Investment Strategy - **News**: On September 9, Ningde Times' subsidiary made a series of decisions for the resumption of production at the Xialuokeng lithium mine, including employee deployment, production equipment inspection, safety checks, and cost - reduction plans [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to short at high prices [1].

Group 1: Product Price Information - Crude oil price on September 12, 2025, was $604.00 per ton, up 0.12% from the previous value of $603.25 [1] - Northeast Asia ethylene price on September 12, 2025, was $841.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - East China ethylene oxide ex - factory price on September 12, 2025, was $6300.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Inner Mongolia brown coal (tax - included) price on September 11, 2025, was $290.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] -主力合约结算价 on September 11, 2025, was $4306.00 per ton, up 0.32% from the previous value [1] - Near - month contract closing price on September 11, 2025, was $4408.00 per ton, up 0.92% from the previous value [1] - Inner - market ethylene glycol price on September 11, 2025, was $4440.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Near - far month price difference on September 11, 2025, was $102.00 per ton, up from the previous $23.00 per ton [1] - Ethylene glycol comprehensive price difference on September 11, 2025, was $103.00 per ton, down from the previous $116.00 per ton [1] - Dacron price index on September 11, 2025, was $8600.00 per ton, up 0.8% from the previous value [1] - Polyester price on September 11, 2025, was $7000.00 per ton, up 1.06% from the previous value [1] - Polyester staple fiber price on September 11, 2025, was $640.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Bottle - grade chip price index on September 11, 2025, was $5830.00 per ton, up 0.1% from the previous value [1] Group 2: Production and Operation Information - Ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate of oil - based production on September 11, 2025, was 62.95%, up from the previous 62.56% [1] - Ethylene glycol production capacity utilization rate of coal - based production on September 11, 2025, was 88.81%, down from the previous 90.24% [1] - PTA industry factory load rate on September 11, 2025, was 88.28%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA textile machine industry load rate on September 11, 2025, was 65.54%, up from the previous 64.56% [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method on September 11, 2025, was $1444.79 per ton, down from the previous $1410.21 per ton [1]