| | | 甲醇日评20250908:关注低多机会 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 单位 2025/9/5 2025/9/4 | | | | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2415.00 | 2378.00 | 37.00 | 1.56% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2410.00 | 2380.00 | 30.00 | 1.26% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2260.00 | 2227.00 | 33.00 | 1.48% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2277.50 | 2245.00 | 32.50 | 1.45% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2337.50 | 2325.00 | 12.50 | 0.54% | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2267.50 | 2245.00 | 22.50 | 1.00% | | 期现价格 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250908:关注逢低做多机会 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 9月5日 单位 9月4日 | | | | (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 尿素期货价格 | (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1713.00 1690.00 | 1714.00 1700.00 | -1.00 -10.00 | -0.06% -0.59% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1756.00 | 1753.00 | 3.00 | 0.17% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1662.00 | 1664.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | | | | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1700.00 | 1710.00 | -10.00 | -0.58% | | | (小額粒) | 河北 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, but there is a risk of a price decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production restrictions. The polysilicon price is likely to be volatile and prone to rising, with supply-side disturbances remaining unstable [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.58% to 8,820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing steadily as some silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and businesses in the southwest are operating more due to lower electricity costs. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, with some having复产 plans, which will bring some demand. However, the organic silicon market is facing supply pressure, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises are purchasing as needed [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The industrial silicon market has strengthened recently due to polysilicon sentiment. It is expected that the short-term silicon price will maintain high-level consolidation, but if polysilicon enterprises implement production restrictions, it will be negative for the industrial silicon market [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The prices of N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, and N-type mixed material increased by 0.20%, 0.19%, and 0.20% respectively, while the price of N-type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 8.70% to 56,735 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly as some silicon material factories may have new production capacity, but demand has also increased as many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipments by the end of August, reducing inventory [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The polysilicon market has been rising recently due to rumors of state purchases. In the short term, supply-side disturbances may cause price fluctuations, and the price is likely to rise [1]. Other Information - **Industry News**: Southern Co's subsidiary, Georgia Power, has been approved to sign five new solar power purchase agreements with a total capacity of 1,068 megawatts. It has also launched a tender for up to 2,000 megawatts of utility-scale solar or "solar + energy storage" projects [1]. - **Company Announcement**: Daquan Energy's General Manager, Zhu Wengang, stated that the company will continue its production reduction strategy in the third quarter, with a production guidance of 27,000 to 30,000 tons, and an annual production guidance of 110,000 to 130,000 tons in 2025 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of some US employment data in August supports the price of precious metals. With the Fed's possible policy adjustment due to weak employment supply and demand, continuous pressure from Trump, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metals prices are likely to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions when prices fall, but also pay attention to the US August non - farm payrolls and CPI data on September 6th and 11th [1] Data Summary Shanghai Gold and Silver - **Gold**: Futures closing price is 781.70 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 73,492.00 and an inventory of 43,254.00 kilograms. Spot closing price is 809.97 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 27,326.00 and a position of 22,398.00. The spread between near - month and far - month is - 1.58, and the basis is - 4.91 [1] - **Silver**: Futures closing price is 9,773.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a trading volume of 463,397.00 and an inventory of 1,227,039.00 ten - grams. Spot closing price is 9,780.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a trading volume of 580,972.00 and a position of - 17,326.00. The spread between near - month and far - month is 0.00, and the basis is 37.00 [1] International Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX futures closing price is 3,443.20 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 229,950.00 and an inventory of 38,578,730.06 troy ounces. London spot price is 3,546.30 dollars/ounce. SPDR ETF holding is - 2.29, and iShare ETF holding is 3.31. The spread between near - month and far - month is - 46.70, and the basis is 20.00 [1] - **Silver**: COMEX futures closing price is 38.70 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 66,072.00 and an inventory of 516,067,724.23 troy ounces. London spot price is 2.55 dollars/ounce. US iShare ETF holding is 15,230.57, and Canadian PSLV ETF holding is 6,129.61. The spread between near - month and far - month is - 0.52, and the basis is - 0.27 [1] Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Commodities**: INE crude oil is 493.20 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude is 67.39 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude is 63.34 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper is 360.00 yuan/ton, LME copper is - 77.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar is 27.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore is 787.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: SHIBOR is 1.33 and 1.65, US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield is 4.1700, TIPS yield is - 0.03, and the 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation is 2.3800 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: Dollar index is 98.2748, dollar - to - RMB central parity is 7.1052, and euro - to - RMB central parity is 8.2855 [1] - **Stock Indices**: Shanghai Composite Index is 3,765.8759, S&P 500 is 6,502.0800, UK FTSE 100 is 9,216.8700, French CAC40 is 7,698.9200, German DAX is 23,770.3300, Nikkei 225 is 42,580.2700, and South Korean Composite Index is 21.47 [1] Important Information - Miran said the Fed's independence is "crucial" to the economy, and Trump has the right to express his views on interest rates. Miran also said he would act independently if nominated [1] - The US ISM services PMI expansion speed reached the fastest in half a year, with weak employment and high prices. US ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly to 54,000. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 237,000, reaching the highest since June. US corporate recruitment willingness in August dropped to the lowest level since 2009, and layoff numbers soared [1] Trading Strategy - Due to factors such as possible Fed policy adjustment, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold - buying, precious metals prices are likely to rise. It is recommended to set up long positions when prices fall. For London gold, focus on the support around 3,200 - 3,300 and the resistance around 3,600 - 3,700; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support around 760 - 770 and the resistance around 840 - 850. For London silver, focus on the support around 34 - 37 and the resistance around 41 - 43; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support around 9,000 - 9,400 and the resistance around 10,000 - 10,500 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - On September 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rebounded after hitting a low. The spot market had fair trading volume, and the basis premium decreased. The cost side saw an increase in the price of spodumene concentrate and a decrease in the price of lepidolite. The supply side witnessed a rise in lithium carbonate production last week, with a slight increase in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased last week, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, the 3C shipments were average, and the scheduled production of energy storage batteries increased in September. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 34,948 (+830) tons, and the social inventory decreased. Considering all factors, with good profits, high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and decreasing social inventory, the short - term supply and demand both strengthened. The impact from the Jiangxi mine end has been eliminated, and the short - term fundamentals have not changed much. The market is still easily affected by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, appropriately buy options to protect positions, and take appropriate profit - taking on the previously bought straddle options. [1] Summary According to Related Information Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 73,000 yuan/ton, that of the consecutive - one contract was 73,340 yuan/ton, the consecutive - two contract was 73,580 yuan/ton, and the consecutive - three contract was 77,700 yuan/ton. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 712,151 (+269,351) lots, and the open interest was 353,674 (+7,626) lots. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 34,948 (+830) tons. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 340 yuan/ton, the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 440 yuan/ton. The basis was 1,580 yuan/ton. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 yuan/ton, and the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 874 US dollars/ton. [1] Industry News - **Salt Lake Mining Rights**: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) responded during a research reception that the current mining rights compliance inspection is a new trend of stricter industry supervision, reflecting the strict control of the regulatory authorities over the compliance of lithium resource development and utilization activities. The company's mining business is fully compliant, and its production and operation are running stably. - **Ioneer's Project**: Ioneer reduced the leaching time and increased the plant output. The economic viability of its Rhyolite Ridge project in Nevada has been substantially improved. The updated mine plan shows that the unlevered net present value of the mine increased by 38% to $1.89 billion, and the unlevered internal rate of return rose to 16.8%. From the third to the twenty - fifth year, the annual production of lithium carbonate equivalent increased by 20% to 255,000 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate increased by 9% to 126,700 tons. The estimated all - sustaining cash cost of lithium carbonate equivalent is $5,626/ton, and the ore throughput increased by 25% from 2.4 million tons per year to 3 million tons per year. - **Kodal Minerals' Project**: Kodal Minerals obtained an export license for the spodumene concentrate produced from its Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali. The initial export volume is 125,000 tons, but the final administrative steps in the export process need to be completed. [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests paying attention to the opportunity of buying low on the 01 contract of urea futures. Although the current domestic situation is one of strong supply and weak demand, from a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high. Looking at the driving factors, there are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned plants, with about 20% of urea plants being over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, given the easing of Sino - Indian relations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On September 4, UR01 closed at 1,714 yuan/ton with no change; UR05 was at 1,753 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.23%); UR09 was at 1,664 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.36%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it was 1,610 yuan/ton with no change; in Henan, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.58%); in Hebei, it was 1,700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.16%); in the Northeast, it was 1,730 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.58%) [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Shandong spot and UR was -53 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread was -39 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5,134 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.62%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 5,300 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Trading Information of the Main Contract On the previous trading day, the main contract 2601 of urea futures opened at 1,712 yuan/ton, reached a high of 1,718 yuan/ton, a low of 1,706 yuan/ton, closed at 1,714 yuan/ton, and had a settlement price of 1,713 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 260,100 tons, and the open interest was 234,351 lots [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The high copper prices and weak downstream demand are putting pressure on the copper price. Although the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, the weak downstream demand and imported copper arrivals in China may lead to an adjustment in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors wait for the price to fall before placing long orders and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,770 yuan, down 340 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,122 lots; the open interest was 184,021 lots, down 8,088 lots from the previous day; the inventory was 19,829 tons, up 358 tons from the previous day [2]. - **LME Copper Futures**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 8,886 US dollars, down 77.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of bonded and cancelled warrants was 157,950 tons; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.16 US dollars, down 0.27 US dollars from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 180.56 US dollars, down 13.64 US dollars from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On September 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4.5645 US dollars per pound, down 0.08 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory was 302,744 tons, up 21,669 tons from the previous day [2]. Important Information - **Industry Demand**: The weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 78.4%, and new orders decreased by 0.81 percentage points. The industry shows no signs of recovery, with both the operating rate and orders continuing to shrink [2]. - **Supply - side News**: Teck Resources has postponed a major expansion project and is focusing on solving the production problems of its flagship QB copper mine in Chile [2]. Trading Strategy - **Supply**: There are disruptions in the production of many copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative and decreasing China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates are decreasing, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September is increasing month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: High copper prices and hot weather are suppressing downstream consumption, leading to a decrease in the operating capacity of most downstream copper processing industries [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week, the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange has decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased [2]. - **Recommendation**: Wait for the price to fall before placing long orders. Pay attention to the support levels of 77,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 for London copper, and 4.0 - 4.2 for US copper, and the resistance levels of 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on September 4th, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest, and a 0.29% decline in LME nickel. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. The supply side showed stable nickel ore prices, a decrease in nickel ore arrivals last week, and an increase in port inventories. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September and a reduction in nickel iron inventories. Domestic electrolytic nickel production will increase in September, and export profits have expanded. The demand side showed a decrease in ternary production, an increase in stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. In terms of inventory, SHFE decreased, LME increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals are loose, with repeated expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about Indonesian unrest, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - For stainless steel, on September 4th, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated at a low level, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. The spot market had weak low - price trading, and the basis premium widened. The SHFE inventory increased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased last week. On the supply side, stainless - steel production will increase in September. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak. At the cost end, the prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome have risen. Overall, the current macro - sentiment has a greater impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Futures Market - On September 4th, the closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to previous days, with the near - month contract closing at 121450 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the active nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,598 lots (- 20,952), and the open interest was 82,558 lots (- 2,171). The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel contracts (electronic and on - site) decreased, with the electronic - disk closing at 15,236 dollars/ton, down 68 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 5,254 lots (- 645). The price ratio of Shanghai and LME nickel futures was 7.96, down 0.03 [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The average prices of various nickel products (such as SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel) decreased. For example, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,450 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel over the Shanghai nickel contract decreased by 50 yuan to 2,050 yuan [2] 3.1.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were stable. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September and a reduction in nickel iron inventories. Domestic electrolytic nickel production will increase in September, and export profits have expanded. Demand: Ternary production decreased, stainless - steel mill production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1] 3.1.4 Inventory - SHFE nickel inventory decreased to 21,739 tons (- 121 tons), LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat at 4,100 tons [2] 3.2 Stainless - Steel Market 3.2.1 Futures Market - On September 4th, the closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The trading volume of the active stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,009 lots (+ 11,460), and the open interest was 82,425 lots (- 4,439) [2] 3.2.2 Spot Market - The average prices of various stainless - steel products (such as 304/2B coil - trimmed, 304/No.1 coil) decreased in some regions. The low - price trading in the spot market was weak, and the basis premium widened [2] 3.2.3 Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production will increase in September. Demand: Terminal demand is weak [1] 3.2.4 Inventory - SHFE stainless - steel inventory increased to 100,431 tons (+ 127 tons), and the 300 - series social inventory decreased to 622,700 tons (- 3,300 tons) [2] 3.3 Other Information - The US 8 - month "small non - farm" data was 54,000 people, lower than the expected 65,000 people, and the previous value was revised up from 104,000 to 106,000 people. The number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly increased to 237,000, the highest level since June [1] - Centaurus Metals encountered unexpected obstacles in the development of its flagship Jaguar nickel project in Brazil. The company was informed that it needed to upgrade the power transmission to meet the long - term energy needs of the mine. The Jaguar project has 1.2 million tons of nickel content [1]

| | | 甲醇日评20250905:关注低多机会 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 单位 2025/9/4 2025/9/3 | | | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2378.00 | 2382.00 | -4.00 | -0.17% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | 2380.00 | 2379.00 | 1.00 | 0.04% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | 2227.00 | 2226.00 | 1.00 | 0.04% | | | | 太仓 元/吨 | 2245.00 | 2252.50 | -7.50 | -0.33% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2325.00 | 2315.00 | 10.00 | 0.43% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 元/吨 | 2245.00 | 2247.50 | -2.50 | -0.11% | | 及其差 | 田醇观赏价格 | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The market shows complex trends with various factors influencing supply, demand, and prices. For example, some products' prices are fluctuating, and the supply - demand relationship is affected by factors such as production capacity, maintenance, and market sentiment. There are also investment suggestions based on the current market situation, but the overall market remains volatile and uncertain [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price and Quantity - There are a series of price data for different products such as polyester, ethylene, and methanol, with values like - 1253.69, 6300.00, etc., and price changes including - 2.92%, 24.00% [1]. - The quantity data is mainly presented in tons, and there are also some percentage - based data related to production rates and other indicators [1]. Market Supply and Demand - Supply is affected by factors like production capacity, maintenance, and transportation. For example, some production facilities are under maintenance, which may reduce the supply [2]. - Demand is influenced by market sentiment, end - user needs, and economic trends. There are signs of low - level demand in some sectors, while in others, demand is expected to increase gradually [2]. Market Trends and Forecast - The market is in a state of shock and volatility. Some product prices are expected to fall, while others may rise or remain stable [2]. - Forecasts are based on factors such as macro - economic conditions, industry policies, and company operations. For example, some companies' operations may be affected by production losses and supply shortages [2]. Investment Suggestions - There are investment suggestions based on the market situation, but it is emphasized that risks should be carefully considered due to the market's uncertainty [2].