Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The finished steel is expected to be in a state of shock consolidation [2]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to run in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. Summary by Related Content Finished Steel - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will stop production and overhaul from mid - January, and the resumption time is around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The finished steel continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [2]. Aluminum Ingot - Overseas data shows that the better - than - expected employment growth in the US in May indicates that the Fed may wait longer to cut interest rates. After the data was released, the financial market bet that the Fed would not cut interest rates until September and would cut them twice in 2025, reducing the bet on a third rate cut [1]. - As of this Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating production capacity is 87.27 million tons/year. The weekly start - up rate of alumina increased by 0.54 percentage points to 78.75% compared with last week [2]. - In June, the off - season atmosphere of downstream aluminum processing is strong, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% compared with last week. The aluminum cable and wire sector is weak, and attention should be paid to the next delivery cycle and market segment orders [2]. - On June 5, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 504,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the beginning of the week and 7,000 tons from last Thursday. The post - holiday inventory accumulation is controllable, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short term [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests taking a short - selling approach on price rebounds [1][3] Group 3: Summary According to Key Information Steel Inventory - In late May, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises under the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association was 15.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 million tons (6.4%) from the previous ten - day period, an increase of 2.93 million tons (23.7%) from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 10,000 tons (0.1%) from the same ten - day period of the previous month [2] Steel Production Indicators - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.65%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, unchanged from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous week [2] - The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 76.69%, a decrease of 1.09 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.67 percentage points from the same period last year; the average capacity utilization rate was 58.7%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 4.41 percentage points from the same period last year [2] Steel Price and Market Situation - After the leaders of China and the United States had a phone call last week, releasing positive signals, the rebound of coking coal prices promoted the finished steel, and steel prices rebounded slightly after reaching a phased bottom [2] - However, last week's steel production remained at a high level, continuing the high - supply situation [2] - As it has entered the seasonal off - season, short - term demand is difficult to improve and may even decline further due to factors such as the temporary suspension of construction during the college entrance examination and increased rainfall in some areas [2] Later Focus - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment has warmed up, supporting the rebound of coal prices. However, fundamentally, both coal and coke supply and demand have declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. The rebound should be treated with caution [3] Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Last week, short - covering and news stimulation on the coal supply side led to a phased bottom - out rebound in coal and coke futures prices. But the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the spot market remains weak. The third round of coke price cuts by steel mills last week was officially implemented, with the decline in this round increasing to 70 - 75 yuan/ton, and the cumulative decline in the three rounds since mid - May reaching 170 - 185 yuan/ton. Coking coal prices also remained weakly stable [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Coal mine production continued a slight downward trend, but there was no large - scale production suspension or reduction. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 189.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 7.8 million tons year - on - year. Some mines in Shanxi stopped production due to safety reasons for about 15 days. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end has not been relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 6.708 billion tons, an increase of 297 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 3.357 billion tons year - on - year; the clean coal inventory was 4.807 billion tons, an increase of 77 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.04 billion tons year - on - year [2] - **Demand side**: Coal and coke demand continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate was slow. The average daily pig iron output of steel mills last week dropped to 2.418 billion tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 6.05 million tons compared with the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills narrowed slightly, leading to a decline in start - up rates, which generally offset the recent production cuts of coal mines. There was still insufficient driving force for the coal price rebound in terms of fundamentals [2] Outlook - Pay attention to the changes in the start - up of steel mill blast furnaces and the customs clearance of imported coal [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro expectations have warmed up, and the rebound of carbon elements has driven the sector to strengthen. Iron ore's short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality + weak expectations. Demand has basically peaked but the decline slope is low, and the supply side continues to rise but may remain year - on - year reduced. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term. The short - term coking coal price has stabilized and rebounded, and market sentiment has warmed up, but chasing long positions is not recommended [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The current shipment of foreign iron ore has increased month - on - month, with significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions, but the volume of Australian shipments to China has decreased month - on - month. June is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady increase in shipments, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [3] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from its peak but remains at a high level. Hot metal production has declined for four consecutive weeks, but the decline rate has narrowed. The current profitability of steel mills is relatively high, and it is expected that hot metal production will show an overall downward trend from a high level but with a gentle slope. High demand supports prices [3] Inventory - Steel mills currently maintain low - inventory management, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The domestic demand level is still relatively high, and port inventories have continued to decline in the short term. With the increase in arrivals, port inventories are expected to accumulate slightly in the later stage [3]

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：市场情绪回暖 反弹谨慎对待 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 6 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格短暂震荡后，夜盘再度拉升反弹。近日空 头止盈叠加煤供应端的消息刺激，助力煤价走出反弹趋势。现货市场保持 弱势，部分钢厂开始对焦炭价格进行第 3 轮调降；焦煤价格同样保持弱稳 运行。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋势，但尚未出现大面积停减 产。本周 523 座炼焦煤样本矿山原煤日产 189.9 万吨，环比减少 1.8 万吨， 同比下降 7 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Coal and coke supply and demand both decline slightly from high levels, inventory pressure remains high, and a short - term bearish view on the rebound is maintained [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal - coke futures market rebounded from a low level, with the main coking coal contract rising nearly 7%. Short - covering by bears and the fermentation of information such as the import resource tax on Mongolian coal and the domestic Mineral Resources Law helped coal prices rebound. Some steel mills in Hebei started the third round of coke price cuts, to be implemented on the 6th [2] Fundamental Analysis - Coal mine production continues a slight downward trend, but there is no large - scale production halt or reduction. This week, the daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines is 189.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 7.8 million tons year - on - year. Mines in Shanxi's Hejin, Lishi, and Qingxu have stopped production due to safety reasons for about 15 days. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end has not been relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end has increased to 670.8 million tons, an increase of 29.7 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 335.7 million tons year - on - year; the clean coal inventory is 480.7 million tons, an increase of 7.7 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 204 million tons year - on - year [2] - Coal - coke demand continues a slight downward trend. The average daily hot metal output of steel mills has dropped to 2.4191 billion tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 6.08 million tons year - on - year. The overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in开工, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines, and the coal price rebound is still weak [2]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The rebound of the iron ore sector was driven by coking coal, but the rebound height is limited. The demand for iron ore has declined from its peak but is expected to remain at a relatively high level, which will support the price. It is predicted that the short - term price will remain range - bound, and chasing long positions is not recommended. Although the coking coal price has stabilized and rebounded and market sentiment has improved, the fundamental basis for the coking coal rebound is weak and the sustainability of the sector's strength is questionable [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current shipment of foreign mines has increased month - on - month, with significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions, but the volume of Australian shipments to China has decreased month - on - month. In June, which is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward trend in shipments, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has declined from its peak but is still in a high - level area. The molten iron output has decreased for three consecutive weeks, with the current figure at 241.91 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.69). The short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is expected that the molten iron output will show an overall downward trend from a high level, but the downward slope will be gentle. High demand is the core factor supporting the price [4]. Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to decline in the first half of June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [4].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：关税政策提振铝价 关注高价下游反馈 投资咨询业务资格： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 逻辑:昨日铝价偏强震荡。受美元走软和美国数据疲软支撑，市场努力 应对日益加剧的经济等不确定性。美国数据显示非制造业采购经理人指数 上月降至 49.9，为 2024 年 6 月以来的最低值，而 ADP 数据显示美国民间增 加的就业岗位为两年多来最少。所有人都在关注周五的美国非农就业报告， 以寻找美联储下一步行动的线索。白宫今日发表声明称，美国总统特朗普 正式将钢铁和铝的关税从 25%提高到 50%，新关 ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The uncertainty of tariff disturbances persists, and the prices of ferrous metals are under pressure. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have both declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. In the short term, maintain a bearish view on rebounds [4] Group 3 - Market performance: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, hitting a new low during the session and then rebounding slightly. The night - session prices further rebounded, but the rebound space is expected to be limited. On the spot side, after the second round of coke price cuts, it is weakly stable, and the spot price of coking coal is under pressure to decline, with the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 clean coal at the port dropping to 918 yuan/ton [3] - Fundamental supply: Last week, according to the data of 523 coking coal sample mines, the daily output of raw coal was 191.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons compared to the previous week, and the output has declined for two consecutive weeks. The number of coal mines with production cuts in Shanxi has increased, but the inventory pressure at the coal mine end has not been relieved. Last week, the raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 641.1 million tons, an increase of 305.1 million tons year - on - year; the clean coal inventory was 473 million tons, an increase of 198.7 million tons year - on - year [3] - Fundamental demand: Last week, the demand for coking coal and coke continued to decline slightly. The average daily molten iron output of steel mills dropped to 2.4191 billion tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 6.08 million tons year - on - year. The overall profitability of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in production, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines, and coal prices remain weak [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances intensify the pessimistic expectation of off - season demand, and the expectation of domestic incremental policies is weak. The short - term decline of carbon elements causes the collapse of the cost support of finished products, and the overall valuation decline of the black series drags down the iron ore price. Iron ore's short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality + weak expectation. Demand has basically peaked but the decline slope is low, and the supply side continues to recover but may maintain a year - on - year decrease. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to whether the coking coal price stabilizes and whether the market sentiment can recover [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - The US imposing steel tariffs on the world yesterday intensified the pessimistic expectation of terminal demand, leading to a collective decline of the black series. Recently, the black series has been trading on the pessimistic demand expectation. With the expectation of increased supply of carbon elements, iron elements are relatively strong and the discount of the futures price to the spot price is higher than the historical average. Carbon elements are constantly conceding benefits to iron elements. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level but is expected to remain relatively high, supporting the price [2] Supply - The current period's overseas ore shipments have rebounded month - on - month. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions have significantly rebounded, but the volume of Australian ore shipped to China has declined month - on - month. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady rebound in shipments, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [2] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from the high level but is still in the high - level area. Hot metal production has declined for three consecutive weeks, with the current period at 241.91 (month - on - month - 1.69). Short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is expected that hot metal production will show an overall high - level decline trend with a relatively gentle downward slope. High demand is the core factor supporting the price [2] Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked in the first half of June. Overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the staged destocking at the high - inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [2]