农产品日报 | 2025-07-04 养殖端持续挺价，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14370元/吨，较前交易日变动+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.21%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格15.30元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+930，较前交易日变动-70；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.64元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1270，较前交易日变动+70；四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.86元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.18元/公斤，现货基差LH09+490，较前交易日变动+150。 据农业农村部监测，7月3日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.17，比昨天下降0.21个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为112.13，比昨天下降0.24个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.29元/公斤，比昨天下降1.2%；牛肉63.67 元/公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉59.20元/公斤，比昨天下降0.9%；鸡蛋7.07元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡17.18元/ 公斤，比昨天上升0.5%。 市场分析 综合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro - sentiment eases, PVC's trend returns to fundamentals. Its supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory is expected to continue accumulating. For caustic soda, the current chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers with limited upward momentum [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract is 4,914 yuan/ton (-16); the East China basis is -134 yuan/ton (+36); the South China basis is -64 yuan/ton (+16) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,780 yuan/ton (+20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is -504 yuan/ton (-10); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is -693 yuan/ton (-53); the PVC export profit is -5.2 dollars/ton (-4.8) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 39.5 tons (-0.6); the social PVC inventory is 36.2 tons (+0.7); the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.73% (+0.30%); the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 65.46% (-1.92%); the overall PVC operation rate is 76.50% (-0.31%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 62.9 tons (-1.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract is 2,380 yuan/ton (-11); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 26 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 770 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,415 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 512.0 yuan/ton (-40.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 80.03 yuan/ton (+0.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 38.42 tons (-0.62); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.30 tons (-0.28); the operation rate of caustic soda is 80.50% (-2.00%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 80.67% (-0.07%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.25% (-0.13%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 75.17% (-3.40%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Previous maintenance continues, and the overall PVC operation rate declines slightly. Many enterprises have planned maintenance, but the chlor - alkali profit prevents significant production cuts. New production capacities such as Bohua, Yaowang, and Wanhua are expected to be put into operation, offsetting some of the maintenance losses. The supply side is under pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products continues to decline, and domestic demand remains weak. Export orders are stable, and exports continue to increase. India's BIS standard policy is postponed for 6 months, supporting the short - term export market, but the anti - dumping policy is still uncertain [3] - Cost side: The calcium carbide market is weak due to more downstream maintenance, and the cost support for calcium carbide - based PVC is weak. The lifting of the US ban on ethane exports to China may reduce the cost of ethylene - based PVC later, but the impact is lagged [3] - Inventory: Due to sufficient supply and poor downstream demand, the social PVC inventory continues to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The price of liquid chlorine drops significantly, increasing the marginal cost of caustic soda. There are concerns about potential passive production cuts. The operation rate of caustic soda decreases due to more maintenance, but the production cut intention is low. After maintenance, the operation rate is expected to rise, and new production capacities are planned to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The operation of the main downstream alumina is stable, with new production capacities expected in Shandong. The delivery volume of a Shandong alumina plant decreases, and the stocking enthusiasm declines. Non - aluminum downstream demand is weak [3] - Inventory and profit: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit still has room for compression, inventory removal is difficult, and the fundamentals lack positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Maintain a neutral stance. After the macro - sentiment eases, pay attention to macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: Maintain a neutral stance. With limited upward momentum, consider shorting on rallies [4]

Report Summary 1. Market News and Key Data - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: The August - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 45 cents to $67.00 a barrel, a 0.67% decline; the September - delivery Brent crude futures in London dropped 31 cents to $68.80 a barrel, a 0.45% decline. The SC crude oil main contract rose 0.66% to 507 yuan per barrel [1]. - **US - Vietnam Trade Agreement**: Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, where the Vietnamese market will be fully open to the US. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff to the US, and a 40% tariff on any trans - shipped goods [1]. - **US Employment Data**: In June, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 (seasonally adjusted), higher than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. Government employment increased by 73,000, healthcare by 39,000, and social assistance by 19,000. However, the oil and gas extraction industry lost about 500 jobs compared to the previous month and about 900 compared to the same period last year [1]. - **US Ethane Exports to China**: The US government revoked a restrictive licensing requirement on July 2, clearing the way for the resumption of ethane exports to China. Eight ships have sailed to China since the restriction was lifted [1]. - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, to be further discussed in an online meeting this weekend. Saudi Arabia and its partners have previously approved the same - scale increases for May, June, and July [1]. - **Trump's Energy Bill**: Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ends long - term support for solar and wind energy and creates a favorable environment for oil, gas, and coal production. It opens federal lands and waters for oil and gas drilling, reduces royalties for producers, and phases out tax credits for wind and solar energy projects after 2027 [1]. 2. Investment Logic - With the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, China resumes rare - earth exports to the US, and the US cancels restrictions on ethane exports to China, reducing trade uncertainties and boosting market risk appetite. Also, an increase in the fuel - oil diluted - asphalt consumption - tax deduction ratio for some Shandong refineries is expected to lower refinery costs, boost the Shandong local refinery operating rate, and be positive for oil prices [2]. 3. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to trade in a short - term range and be a medium - term short - side allocation [3].

尿素日报 | 2025-07-04 北方农需释放，尿素采购增加 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-03，尿素主力收盘1737元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1800 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： 63元/吨（+12）；河南基差：63元/吨（+22）；江苏基差：73元/吨（+12）；尿素生产利润270元/吨（+10），出口利 润902元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-07-03，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为43.70 万吨（+5.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-03，复合肥产能利用率29.25%（-0.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.99%（-0.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 近期雨水天气增多，北方农需逐步释放，农业将进入夏季追肥旺季，下游采购量有所增加。临时停车增加，上游 开工率走低，产量有所下降。复合肥目前处于季节性淡季，开工率处于低位，秋季肥排产计 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-04 2025-07-03日沪镍主力合约2508开于121280元/吨，收于121790元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.80%，当日成交量为 78989手，持仓量为71229手。 沪镍主力合约2508延续震荡上行，日线收小阳线。08主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有较大幅度的增加，持仓 量对比上个交易日有小幅减少。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的红柱面积继续扩大，但扩大速度放缓，短周期内 回调的概率在增加。日线在6月23日的117000附近出现底背离现象，中长线上我们预估117000一线是强支撑位。现 货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日报价上调450元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均有所上调。近期精炼镍盘面以 偏强震荡为主，但向上的力度正在减弱，精炼镍现货成交表现一般，基本面供应过剩格局不改，近期升贴水有所 回落，但升贴水仍处于高位，因此现货价对盘面下方有支撑力。其中金川镍升水变化-200元/吨至2300元/吨，进口 镍升水变化0元/吨至400元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为21065（-72.0）吨，LME镍库存为 203628（-474）吨。 策 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-04 社会库存持续小幅累库 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-21.99 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨140元/吨至22430元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至110元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨120元/吨至22370元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至50元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨110元/吨 至22330元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌25元/吨至10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-03沪锌主力合约开于22320元/吨，收于22325元/吨，较前一交易日上涨110元/吨，全天交易日 成交132674手，较前一交易日增加4654手，全天交易日持仓127934手，较前一交易日减少1829手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22400元/吨，最低点达到22245元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-07-03，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.24万吨，较上周同期增加0.29万吨。截止2025-07-03，LME 锌库存为112675吨，较上一交易日减少750吨。 市场 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-04 轮胎厂开工率继续回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14015元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨。NR主力合约12125元/吨，较前一日变动-150 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14000元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13900元/吨， 较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1720美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1660美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11300元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。 市场资讯 据隆众了解，7月份轮胎企业订单存一定差异，部分半钢胎企业受订单影响，月初存检修计划，对整体产出形成一 定拖拽，全钢胎企业表现基本稳定，排产波动不大。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前5个月，越南出口天然橡胶合计20.5万吨，较去年的25万吨同比下降18%。其中， 标胶出口11.8万吨，同比降26%，包括SVR10降47%至3.8万吨，SVR3L持平至4.2万吨，SV ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-07-04 下游开工再度下降 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.70万吨（+0.60万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费156美元/吨（-6美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费138美元/吨（-5美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差97.7美元/吨（+9.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-85元/吨（+85元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差278元/吨（-135元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润89元/吨（-57元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存98800吨（+13800吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存31300吨（-35000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率80.0%（-0.1%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润151元/吨（+49元/吨），PS生产利润-249元/吨（+99元/吨），ABS生产利润493元/吨（+80 元/吨）。EPS开工率55.88%（-3.84%），PS开工率52.40%（-5.00%），ABS开工率65.04%（-0.96%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 纯苯方面，韩国后续发往中国压力仍大；国产开工高位回落，下游CPL及苯胺开工偏低 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-04 供应压力仍存，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2958元/吨，较前日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.48%；菜粕2509合约2601元/吨，较前 日变动+23元/吨，幅度+0.89%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2920元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-38， 较前日变动-4；江苏地区豆粕现货2810元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-148，较前日变动-4；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2820元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M09-138，较前日变动+6。福建地区菜粕现货价格2600 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM09-1，较前日变动-3。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家能源政策委员会计划在今年8月至2026年2月期间，将生物柴油强制掺混比例从目前的14% 提高到15%。从2026年3月起，这一比例甚至可能进一步提高到16%。6月上旬，加拿大油菜播种结束，加拿大统计 局预期播种面积2146万英亩，同比下降2.5%。 市场分析 整体来看，国内方面，当下仍处于巴西大豆的集中到港时期，近月到港量较 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Views - The further rise of aluminum prices requires the resonance of macro - improvement and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, with a small accumulation expected in July. Long - term attention should be paid to the price increase driven by stronger - than - expected consumption under the background of supply constraints [4]. - For alumina, the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [6]. - For aluminum alloy, it is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 114,240 lots and a position of 281,092 lots. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 474,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 356,975 tons, up 350 tons from the previous day [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market transaction premium is still falling, and social inventory shows signs of accumulation. The supply of the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited by the production capacity ceiling, and the industry profit is rich. The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the short term, beware of price drops due to inventory accumulation; in the long term, pay attention to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected consumption [4]. Alumina - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price was 361.6 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 3,026 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 336,450 lots and a position of 279,051 lots. The alumina warehouse receipt was 21,000 tons [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, and the new project of Guangtou is about to be put into production. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Although the delivery risk has been alleviated, it still needs to be vigilant [5][6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Inventory Data**: On July 3, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 15,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of aluminum alloy was 108,800 tons, up 2,100 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in the off - season, and the price increase space in the spot market is limited. The cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6].