Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean meal market is experiencing high downstream inventory, causing the price to fluctuate. The 05 contract price is moving weakly in line with the US soybean price due to ample domestic supply, high inventory, and strong South American harvest expectations. However, high import costs and pre - and post - Spring Festival shutdown expectations provide some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [1][2] - In the corn market, supply - side trading is sluggish with low trader enthusiasm and limited arrivals. On the demand side, feed companies are mostly in a wait - and - see mode after restocking, and deep - processing enterprises are making just - in - time purchases with stable production and sales. With farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream wait - and - see attitudes, future attention should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2774 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous day. Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong had spot prices of 3100 yuan/ton, 3050 yuan/ton, and 3070 yuan/ton respectively. Crop expert Michael Cordonnier estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 1.77 billion tons [1] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic supply is ample, and the 05 contract price is weak due to high inventory and South American harvest expectations, but there is some price support [2] Corn - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2249 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (+1.22%) from the previous day. As of December 23, 77.7% of Argentina's 2025/26 corn was planted. As of December 25, Ukraine had harvested 94% of its planned grain area [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply - side trading is light, and demand - side players are mostly in a wait - and - see mode. Corn spot prices are expected to adjust [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil price rebound is blocked, the expectation of oil market oversupply remains unchanged, and the short - term oversold rebound cannot form an upward trend, so the cost - side support for FU and LU is weak [2] - The current fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors, with limited overall driving force [2] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the marginal improvement in refinery demand has led to a recent increase in China's imports, but the supply is still abundant [2] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is an expectation of supply increase in Kuwait and Nigeria, and the short - term market pressure may be limited. The first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas in 2026 has been issued, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm is still limited [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.76% at 2,459 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.62% at 2,974 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG market continues to accumulate inventory, and prices are consolidating at low levels. The current price is not high, but the downstream hidden inventory has also reached a high level. With the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. In addition, the production pressure is relatively large, and the inventory accumulation pressure from January to February is still relatively high, limiting the rebound space [1][3] - On the supply side, the extrusion of syngas - based production load is not obvious, and the domestic ethylene glycol load has recovered to a high level of over 70%. The inventory accumulation pressure is still large under high supply from January to February and weakening demand. Overseas supply pressure will ease after February. On the demand side, weaving orders are marginally weakening, the load is accelerating to decline, and the polyester load is slightly declining due to weakening efficiency [2] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,817 yuan/ton (a change of - 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.75%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,683 yuan/ton (a change of + 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of + 0.35%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was - 136 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of + 16 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - based EG was - 87 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of + 3 US dollars/ton), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 857 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of + 41 yuan/ton) [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol load has recovered to a high level of over 70% [2] International Price Difference - No specific data or conclusions are provided in the report Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Weaving orders are marginally weakening, the load is accelerating to decline, and the polyester load is slightly declining due to weakening efficiency [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 844,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 645,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons) [1] - According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 106,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 25,000 tons; this week, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 106,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 43,000 tons. The overall situation is slightly high, and it is expected that the main ports will have a slight inventory accumulation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea ex - factory prices have slightly decreased to attract orders, and transactions in some major producing areas have improved slightly. Environmental warnings in Hebei and Henan may continue to suppress the operations of urea enterprises and downstream industries. There is an expectation of reduced supply in the fourth - quarter due to gas - head maintenance starting in December and environmental warnings. On the demand side, off - season storage purchases are ongoing. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer sector has cooled due to raw material supply - guarantee policies, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined. The overall operating rate of melamine has decreased despite the resumption of some shutdown and production - cut devices. Factory inventories are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. There is no new news on the export side. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, the raw material procurement rhythm of compound fertilizers, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchase sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][9][12][15] 3.2 Urea Production - Figures include urea weekly production and urea device maintenance loss volume [18] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [26][27][28][30] 3.4 Urea Foreign Prices and Export Profit - Figures show urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [32][40][43] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures involve compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [51][53] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of Hebei urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [54][56][63]

化工日报 | 2025-12-30 青岛港口库存继续回升 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15250元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前一 日变动-80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1875美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11300元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传化 BR9000市场价11450元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2.6%至147.4万吨，较上月下降1.5%；天胶消费量 料降1.4%至124.8万吨，较上月下降0.9%。前11个月，全球天胶累计产量料增2%至1337.5万吨，累计消费量料降1.7% 至1393.2万吨。 据隆众资讯了解，目前半 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-30 下游跟进乏力，氯碱震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4777元/吨（-55）；华东基差-277元/吨（+55）;华南基差-227元/吨（+55）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4500元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4550元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格750元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润-110元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-760元/吨（+226）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-336元/吨（+134）；PVC出口利润-16.1美元/吨（-4.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.6万吨（-2.2）；PVC社会库存51.4万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率77.46%（+0.45%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.73%（-3.33%）；PVC开工率75.42%（-0.70%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量80.7万吨（+4.5）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2232元/吨（-36）；山东32%液碱基差-20元/吨（+30）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价708元/吨（-2）；山东5 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebound of lead prices may temporarily end as both buyers and sellers are observing the market near the year - end. The demand side is weak except for the automotive battery sector, but the lead variety is likely to be affected by the overall strong pattern of the non - ferrous sector. So, a neutral attitude is recommended for operation, with an operation range of 17150 - 17850 yuan/ton [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 37.81 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose 200 yuan/ton to 17375 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed 25 yuan/ton to - 25.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed 175 yuan/ton to 17400 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed 175 yuan/ton to 17375 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed 225 yuan/ton to 17400 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries rose 25 yuan/ton to 9950 yuan/ton, waste white shells remained unchanged at 10050 yuan/ton, and waste black shells rose 25 yuan/ton to 10350 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17460 yuan/ton, closed at 17490 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 84769 lots, an increase of 26000 lots, and the position was 54475 lots, a decrease of 1083 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 17645 yuan/ton and the lowest at 17415 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17465 yuan/ton and closed at 17380 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 1.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from last week. As of December 29, the LME lead inventory was 244275 tons, a decrease of 4625 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended for lead investment, with an operation range of 17150 - 17850 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate is greatly affected by news and capital, with little change in fundamentals, and there will still be a slight oversupply in 2026 [1] - The current price is mainly driven by capital sentiment, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices. There is a risk of a short - term pullback [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 129,800 yuan/ton and closed at 118,820 yuan/ton, a - 7.89% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 688,764 lots, and the open interest decreased from 577,035 lots to 512,345 lots. The current basis is - 12,460 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased by 330 lots to 18,191 lots [1] - The sharp reduction in positions of the lithium carbonate main contract and the hitting of the daily limit are mainly due to the rapid recent increase and long - position profit - taking. Sodium battery substitution has become a new topic, and it may replace some lithium battery demand in the future [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 110,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, a change of 6,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 108,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton, a change of 5,750 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,565 US dollars/ton, a change of 55 US dollars/ton [2] - Lithium salt plant production maintains stable growth. With the gradual commissioning of some new production lines, the domestic lithium carbonate output in December is expected to increase by about 3% month - on - month, and the supply is steadily released [2] - The spot inventory is 109,773 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 652 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory decreased by 239 tons to 17,851 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,593 tons to 39,892 tons, and other inventories increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises [3] - Options: None [3] - Inter - delivery spread: None [4] - Cross - commodity: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-30 市场分析 1、12月29日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价3008元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨7元/吨，涨幅 0.23%；持仓141333手，环比下跌15886手，成交237579手，环比上涨55761手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2870—3190元/吨；华南，2860—2950元/吨； 华东，3000—3120元/吨。 昨日华北地区沥青现货价格有所下跌，华东和华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格基本持稳。 尽管随着淡季来临，沥青终端需求偏弱，但由于个别沥青现货流通量较为紧张，供应端存在支撑，带动现货均价 小幅上涨。整体来看，目前盘面定价转移到南方地区，局部过剩矛盾仍有待消化。与此同时，委油原料断供事件 则是潜在的上行风险，市场多空因素交织，现实与预期博弈下，底部反弹需要等待更明确的信号。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号明确，可尝试左侧逢低多配置 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 原油端表现乏力 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The oil price is closely related to the situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although there were some positive developments in the meeting between Zelensky and Trump, it is unlikely that a breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks will be achieved in the short term. In Q1 next year, oil prices still face significant downward pressure [2]. - The market generally expects China's SPR replenishment demand to be 500,000 barrels per day next year. If this fails to materialize, it means additional downward pressure on oil prices [2]. Section Summaries Market News and Important Data - On December 27, the Russian government extended the temporary export ban on gasoline to February 28, 2026, and the export ban on diesel, marine fuel, and other fuels to the same date, except for direct oil producers. The current supply and demand in the Russian oil product market are balanced, and inventory has recovered to a level higher than the same period last year [1]. - According to the EIA report, in the week of December 19, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.048 million barrels per day to 3.616 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels to 13.825 million barrels per day [1]. - Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez said that in response to the U.S. military deployment in the southern Caribbean, Venezuela has launched a large - scale logistical mobilization, and its crude oil shipments have been disrupted but not completely interrupted [1]. Investment Logic - The oil price is closely related to the Russia-Ukraine situation. The Russia-Ukraine peace talks are unlikely to make a breakthrough in the short term. Venezuelan crude oil shipments are affected but not halted, and its impact on oil prices is limited. In Q1 next year, oil prices face significant downward pressure. Failure to meet the expected 500,000 barrels per day of China's SPR replenishment demand will bring additional downward pressure on oil prices [2]. Strategy - The short - term trend of oil prices is weak and volatile, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risk - Downside risks include the achievement of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3].