1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass and soda ash markets are expected to oscillate, and the double - silicon market will also experience low - level oscillations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated yesterday. Spot market transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and trading sentiment cooled. This week, the average market price of float glass was 1,174 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27 yuan/ton from the previous period. The enterprise start - up rate was 75.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and the manufacturer's inventory was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The production capacity of previously ignited production lines was gradually released, and supply increased month - on - month. Entering the off - season, demand was expected to weaken further, and real - estate transactions remained sluggish, leading to continued low glass consumption. Inventory remained at a high level, and the market tried to clear glass production capacity through price cuts, but there was no actual supply contraction [1] - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to oscillate [3] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, downstream sentiment was cautious, and purchases were mainly for rigid demand replenishment. This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%; the output was 709,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,700 tons; and the inventory was 1.8095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.41% [2] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: There were both resumptions and overhauls in the soda ash production, but the overhaul volume was higher than the resumption volume, resulting in a month - on - month decline in output. Demand lacked an increase and faced the expectation of a contraction in float glass supply. In the off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would keep prices low [2] - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to oscillate [3] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated under the influence of market sentiment. The main contract of manganese silicon futures rose 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 5,712 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market oscillated. The price of the ore end remained firm, and the production enthusiasm of factories was not high. The price in the northern market of 6517 was 5,480 - 5,530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese production increased from a low level, pig iron production increased slightly, and silicon manganese demand increased slightly. The inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warehouse receipts were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon manganese market is expected to oscillate [5] Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5,390 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was relatively stable, with prices fluctuating slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural blocks in the main production areas was 5,050 - 5,150 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was reported at 5,600 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron production increased month - on - month, demand increased slightly, and factory inventory was at a high level. Entering the consumption off - season, the consumption intensity of silicon iron would be tested. Silicon iron production capacity was relatively loose, and in the short term, prices were dragged down by costs, but the overall replenishment of silicon iron was in a healthy state [4] - **Strategy**: The silicon iron market is expected to oscillate [5]

油料日报 | 2025-07-04 市场需求不佳，花生价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4141.00元/吨，较前日变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.24%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+159，较前日变化+30，幅度32.14%。 昨日国内花生价格震荡运行。截止至 2025年6月26日，全国通货米均价为9000元/吨，较上周价格下跌 0.88%。市 场延续供需双弱的僵持局面，价格在狭窄区间内弱势平稳运行，整体交易氛围清淡，各方均保持谨慎态度；油厂 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘上涨，其中基准期约收高2%，因为技术买盘和逢低 买盘活跃，芝加哥豆油飙升，市场传闻美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在访问衣阿华州时可能带来与中国贸易谈判取得进 展的消息。截至收盘，大豆期货上涨13.75美分到25.75美分不等，其中7月期约上涨25.75美分，报收1050.50美分/ 蒲;8月期约上涨23.75美分，报收1053.50美分/蒲;11月期约上涨20.75美分，报收1048美分/蒲。7月3日，黑龙江哈尔 滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-04 部分装置检修，PDH开工率再度回落 市场分析 1、\t7月3日地区价格：山东市场，4570-4700；东北市场，4120—4310；华北市场，4555-4650；华东市场，4430—4650； 沿江市场，4620—4740 ；西北市场，4250—4350；华南市场，4580—4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷565美元/吨，跌20美元/吨，丁烷530美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4488元/吨，跌119元/吨，丁烷4173元/吨，跌80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷570美元/吨，跌20美元/吨，丁烷530美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4449元/吨，跌197元/吨，丁烷4173元/吨，跌80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，地缘溢价大幅回落，LPG盘面回到窄幅震荡状态，市场驱动不足。昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期与国 内LPG局部现货价格再度下跌。就LPG基本面而言，整体供需格局仍偏宽松，在中东断供风险消退后，海外货源供 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-07-04 供需回归基本面，油脂价格震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8478.00元/吨，环比变化+38元，幅度+0.45%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7994.00 元/吨，环比变化-24.00元，幅度-0.30%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9619.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8520.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.95%，现货基差P09+42.00，环比变化 +42.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%，现货基差Y09+166.00， 环比变化+24.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9750.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%，现货基差 OI09+131.00，环比变化+40.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至7月1日当周，约8%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此 前一周为12%，去年同期为9%。美国农业部（U ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-04 消息面及情绪影响，碳酸锂盘面短期偏强运行 市场分析 2025年7月3日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于64000元/吨，收于64080元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨0.91%。当 日成交量为420967手，持仓量为334057手，较前一交易日增加8483手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳1980 元/吨。所有合约总持仓603359手，较前一交易日增加13725手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少142426手，成 交量510281，整体投机度为0.85。当日碳酸锂仓单22880手，较上个交易日减少300手。 整体来看，近期消息面及资金情绪有一定扰动，消费端有一定支撑，中期过剩局面难改，后续盘面仍有下跌空间。 单边：短期建议观望，若继续反弹可择机逢高卖出套保 跨期：无 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月3日电池级碳酸锂报价6.12-6.3万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.045万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6-6.1万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.045万元/吨。据SMM数据，碳酸锂现货成交价格重心呈现震 荡上行。 受7月需求预期改善的消息刺激，现货价格出现 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-04 苹果西部余货不多，红枣主力合约切换 策略 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7764元/吨，较前一日变动+20元/吨，幅度+0.26%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+436，较前一日变动-20；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1836，较前一日变动-20。 近期市场资讯，苹果现货市场走货维持稳淡，季节性淡季影响仍明显，产区冷库客商要货积极性不高，早熟果目 前仍以大荔、运城等地藤木、晨阳、夏红为主，整体上量有限，对行情影响不大。西部产区货源剩余不多，存货 商自行发市场为主，交易不多，早熟果藤木、光果晨阳等上市后价格稳定；山东产区仍以发市场为主，部分货源 价格因质量有小幅松动。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/ 斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80# 一 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-04 利空情绪逐渐消化，原糖期价强势反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13785元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15171元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，现货基差CF09+1386，较前一日变动+55；3128B棉全国均价15203元/吨， 较前一日变动+40元/吨，现货基差CF09+1418，较前一日变动+60。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA），截至6月26日一周，美国本年度陆地棉净签约5352吨，装运5.8万吨。其 中至中国净签约-91吨，装运1066吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续震荡。国际方面，USDA公布美棉新年度实播面积在1012.0万英亩，高于市场预期。目前美棉种 植基本结束，天气表现总体尚可，干旱区域面积占比持续减少，最新一周优良率也明显回升，供应端利好或难显 现，后续仍需重点关注各主产国天气及新棉生长状况。国内方面，由于前期棉花加速去库，商业库存降至历史同 期低位，本年度后期供需仍有趋紧预期，对棉价形成上涨驱动。叠加近期新疆局部地区气温偏高，个别棉田受阶 段高温 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, after the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts. The pattern of strong reality and weak expectation remains unchanged. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than the supply side, and crude oil is expected to enter a state of oversupply [2] - In terms of gasoline and aromatics, the US gasoline crack has retreated again recently. Against the background of new energy substitution, the upside space of the gasoline crack spread is limited. The blending oil demand this year is not worth much expectation. The intermittent blending oil demand at home and abroad can basically be met by naphtha, which limits the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool [2] - For PX, several domestic PX units are under maintenance recently, and the supply and demand side remains tight. With the high downstream PTA start - up and the new PTA production in the third quarter, PXN is expected to be supported [2][5] - PTA has no major fundamental contradictions, but there is an expectation of weakening on the demand side due to the bottle - chip maintenance plan. Attention should be paid to the cost and demand support [5] - For PF, the short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, and most of them purchase on a just - in - time basis. Attention should be paid to the cost - side support [3] - For PR, the current bottle - chip profit is still low. With the gradual implementation of production cuts, the processing fee is expected to be repaired [4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][22] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It involves the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the start - up of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [46][48][57] VII. PF Detailed Data - It presents the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][68][77] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - As the lead - acid battery consumption season approaches, the rising price has stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm with a significant "buy - on - rising" feature. The improvement of macro - sentiment and the spill - over of risk sentiment will benefit the lead price. For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, buying hedging on dips can be carried out between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On July 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 26.77 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price rose 75 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 17050 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 17025 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium rose 75 yuan/ton to 17100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged [1] - **Futures Market**: On July 3, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17235 yuan/ton and closed at 17245 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34446 lots, an increase of 6922 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 52878 lots, an increase of 1624 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 17315 yuan/ton and the lowest at 17195 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17220 yuan/ton and closed at 17305 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The lead price is oscillating strongly. Downstream enterprises' operations are in the transition period between the off - season and peak season. Some enterprises are making necessary inventory preparations, and the spot trading in the primary lead market is fair [2] Inventory - On July 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 0.06 million tons from the same period last week. As of July 3, the LME lead inventory was 265900 tons, a decrease of 2250 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, buying hedging on dips can be carried out between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at 16,500 yuan/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,288 yuan/ton (a change of - 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.26%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,361 yuan/ton (a change of + 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of + 0.02%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton). The US government lifted restrictions on exporting ethane to China, causing EG to open lower and then fluctuate. The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 75 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 US dollars/ton), and that of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 34 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton). The inventory in the main ports of East China was 545,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 77,000 tons) according to CCF and 542,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons) according to Longzhong. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, which may lead to a rise in inventory [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, showing a benign de - stocking in the short - term, but the market's transferable spot will increase after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. In early July, foreign ships will arrive intensively. On the demand side, the current demand is strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans in early July, with a weak demand forecast [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,288 yuan/ton (a change of - 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.26%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,361 yuan/ton (a change of + 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of + 0.02%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 75 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 US dollars/ton), and that of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 34 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The demand side is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans in early July, with a weak demand forecast [2] Inventory Data - The inventory in the main ports of East China was 545,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 77,000 tons) according to CCF and 542,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons) according to Longzhong. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, which may lead to a rise in inventory [1]