Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International oil prices rebounded, and propane prices continued to rise, providing cost - side support for a slight rebound in the polyolefin market. Upstream supply is expected to remain at a high level, but there is significant inventory pressure. Downstream demand is in a seasonally improving phase, with overall downstream factory operating rates rising slightly, but the fundamental situation remains weak [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7232元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6966元/吨（+53），LL华北现货为7160元/吨（+10），LL华东现货为7170元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6800元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 72元/吨（-53），LL华东基差为 - 62元/吨（-63），PP华东基差为 - 166元/吨（-53） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.0%（-2.5%），PP开工率为76.8%（-3.1%）；PE油制生产利润为277.0元/吨（-69.2），PP油制生产利润为 - 333.0元/吨（-69.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 271.2元/吨（+64.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the summarized content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨（-22.4），PP进口利润为 - 471.2元/吨（+40.4），PP出口利润为27.7美元/吨（+0.3） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为24.1%（+3.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.1%（+0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.1%） [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is large, but specific inventory data is not provided in the summarized content [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - delivery: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-16 早富士交易近尾声，红枣备货不及预期 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8304元/吨，较前一日变动-25元/吨，幅度-0.30%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-704，较前一日变动+25；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1296，较前一日变动+25。 近期市场资讯，西部早熟富士剩余货源质量出现分化，好货剩余不多，多按货给价。山东产区红将军好货成交不 多，上色不佳问题存在，库存富士成交尚可，客商拿货多以好货及性价比很高的货源为主。陕西延安洛川产区早 熟富士70#以上市场主流价格4.0元/斤左右，一般货源3.5-4元/斤。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以 上统货2.3-3.0元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.3-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤。山东栖霞产区红将军80#起步2.7-3 元/斤。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价收跌，西部早富士好货稀少，交易开始收尾，晚熟富士卸 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Before the export window period, go long on the UR01 - 05 spread when it is low; after the export window period, go short on the UR01 - 05 spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers cut prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the trading volume improved, and the subsequent sustainability needs attention [2] - The urea production is running at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand remain relatively loose [2] - The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [2] - The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. In September, it is still the export window period, and the urea export is ongoing with an accelerating pace. The export volume in August and September is expected to be good. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand on a month - on - month basis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - Information on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][7][8][15][17] 3.2 Urea Production - Information on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][22] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Information on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based production capacity utilization rate, and gas - based production capacity utilization rate is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][26][29] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Information on urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB price in China, urea large - particle CFR price in China, price differences, urea export profit, and on - paper export profit is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37][40][47] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Information on the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [48][49][50] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract open interest, and main contract trading volume is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][55][58] 4. Market Data as of September 15, 2025 4.1 Price and Basis - Urea main contract closed at 1,683 yuan/ton (+20) - The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was quoted at 1,640 yuan/ton (0) - The small - particle price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton (-20) - The small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (-10) - The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0) - The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-40) - The basis in Henan was - 43 yuan/ton (-30) - The basis in Jiangsu was - 43 yuan/ton (-30) - Urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-20) - Export profit was 1,167 yuan/ton (+62) [1] 4.2 Supply - side - The enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.34% (+0.08%) - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 113.27 million tons (+3.77) - The port sample inventory was 54.94 million tons (-7.15) [1] 4.3 Demand - side - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 37.82% (+4.74%) - The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.38% (-3.60%) - The number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.88 days (+0.47) [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating for asphalt is weakly fluctuating, while there are no ratings for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Group 2: Core View - The cost side of asphalt is fluctuating, and its fundamentals are weak. The crude oil price fluctuates, providing limited guidance for asphalt price direction. The BU futures market is weak, and the crack spread has declined. Terminal demand is poor, especially in the south, and the supply of local spot resources has increased, suppressing market sentiment. If the rebound of oil prices is insufficient, the upward driving force for the futures market is limited [1][2] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - **Futures Market**: On the afternoon of September 15th, the closing price of the main BU2511 asphalt futures contract was 3393 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.29% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 240,677 lots, a decrease of 11,963 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 204,310 lots, a decrease of 34,468 lots [2] - **Spot Market**: The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information vary by region: Northeast 3806 - 4086 yuan/ton, Shandong 3480 - 3820 yuan/ton, South China 3480 - 3540 yuan/ton, and East China 3560 - 3700 yuan/ton. The spot prices in the northwest and north China increased, those in Shandong and Sichuan - Chongqing decreased slightly, and the rest remained stable [2] Group 4: Strategy Summary - **Unilateral Strategy**: Weakly fluctuating [3] - **Other Strategies**: There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Group 5: Chart Information Summary - The report includes 24 charts covering aspects such as spot prices in different regions, futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, production volume in different regions, consumption in different fields, and inventory data [4]

化工日报 | 2025-09-16 青岛港口库存环比继续下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15995元/吨，较前一日变动+175元/吨；NR主力合约12710元/吨，较前一日变动+155 元/吨；BR主力合约11705元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15150元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15150元/吨，较前 一日变动+170元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1870美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1790美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价11550元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 天然橡胶： 现货及价差：2025-09-15，RU基差-845元/吨（-25），RU主力与混合胶价差845元/吨（+5），烟片胶进口 利润-3205元/吨（+214.90），NR基差577.00元/吨（-78.00）；全乳胶15150元/吨（+150），混合胶15150元/ 吨（+170），3L现货15300元/吨（+ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of oil has rebounded recently, and PX/PTA has followed the cost to fluctuate upwards. The demand for polyester shows signs of recovery, but the order connection is insufficient, and the market's expectation for the subsequent demand is moderately pessimistic. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in September. For PX, the fundamentals weakened in August, but the low inventory and the restart of PTA will turn it into a destocking situation again, providing support for PXN. For PTA, there is a destocking situation in the near - term, but there is a stack - up pressure in the fourth quarter. For PF, the short - term supply - demand situation is better than the raw material end. For PR, the processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly, and there is a large supply - demand pressure under the new device production expectation [1][2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents figures related to the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures cover the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][26]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [28][31][33]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include the filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [48][50][60]. 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [69][73][80]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][92][95].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season is clear. With the weak US data and strong interest - rate cut expectations, the consumption at home and abroad is expected to strengthen seasonally. Pay attention to the destocking rhythm [6]. - The supply of alumina continues to increase, resulting in a surplus situation. Although the cost support is relatively strong and the further decline of the futures price is limited, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently little upward momentum [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with its price following the aluminum price. The tight supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum supports the price, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities may be affected by the activity of aluminum alloy [9]. Group 3: Key Data Summaries Aluminum - Spot prices: East China A00 aluminum price is 20950 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central China A00 aluminum price is 20820 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21140 yuan/ton, the closing price is 21020 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - Inventory: As of September 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 63.7 million tons, up 1.2 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory is 75085 tons, up 2616 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory is 485275 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina - Spot prices: On September 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3015 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2980 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3050 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3200 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3220 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 340 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 2916 yuan/ton, the closing price is 2935 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change of 0.44% [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On September 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum is 16200 yuan/ton, the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum is 16400 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation is 20600 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 7.08 million tons, and the in - plant inventory is 6.05 million tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost is 20373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 27 yuan/ton [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-16 下游需求仍偏弱 但宏观因素使铅价相对抗跌 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-15，LME铅现货升水为-41.16美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16950 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化175元 /吨至16950元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16950元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化200元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-15，沪铅主力合约开于17050元/吨，收于17160元/吨，较前一交易日变化120元/吨，全天交易 日成交58666手，较前一交易日变化-4763手，全天交易日持仓47056手，手较前一交易日变化-5132手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17205元/吨，最低点达到 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the corn market: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, the adjustment in the September report was slightly higher than market expectations, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. Attention should be paid to the situation of new - season US soybeans. In the domestic market, although the increase in Brazilian premiums has supported soybean prices to some extent, the supply is still sufficient and downstream inventory is high. Policy changes between China and the US need to be monitored [2]. - For the corn market, on the supply side, the new - season grain supply is abundant. On the demand side, feed and deep - processing enterprises are cautious about purchasing new - season corn. The situation of new - season corn listing and acquisition needs to be focused on [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - 粕类 - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3042 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2504 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-1.07%) [1]. - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **US Department of Agriculture Report**: For the 2025/26 US soybean season, the planted area was expected to be 81.1 million acres, and the harvested area 80.3 million acres, both up 200,000 acres; the average yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, down 0.1 bushel; the production was 4.301 billion bushels, up 9 million bushels; the export forecast was 1.685 billion bushels, down 20 million bushels [1]. Market News and Important Data - Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2167 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.37%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2443 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.25%) [3]. - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **US Department of Agriculture Report**: For the 2025/26 US corn season, the yield per acre was down 2.1 bushels to 186.7 bushels/acre; the planted area was up to 98.7 million acres; the production was up 72 million bushels to 16.814 billion bushels; the export volume was up 100 million bushels to a record 2.975 billion bushels; the ending inventory was down 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels [3]. Market Analysis - 粕类 - The bean meal futures price was weakly volatile. The adjustment in the September report was slightly higher than market expectations, causing a decline in US soybean prices. In the domestic market, the increase in Brazilian premiums supported soybean prices, but supply was sufficient and downstream inventory was high. Policy changes between China and the US need attention [2]. Market Analysis - Corn - **Supply**: Traders had little old - crop corn left, and the price of old - crop corn was firm. New - crop corn was gradually coming onto the market, and traders were trying to buy at lower prices. However, due to the demand from deep - processing enterprises, the price of new - crop corn in Heilongjiang increased slightly. New - season grain supply was abundant [4][5]. - **Demand**: Feed enterprises mainly used their inventory and were cautious about purchasing new - season corn. Deep - processing enterprises also wanted to buy at lower prices. The situation of new - season corn listing and acquisition needs to be monitored [5]. Strategies - For the粕类 market, the strategy is neutral [3]. - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-16 海外升水快速走强 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为30.17美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日0元/吨至22230元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至22190元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-110元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日0元/吨至22210元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-90元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-15沪锌主力合约开于22345元/吨，收于22310元/吨，较前一交易日30元/吨，全天交易日成交97830 手，全天交易日持仓92003手，日内价格最高点达到22365元/吨，最低点达到22255元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-15，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.06万吨，较上期变化0.64万吨。截止2025-09-15，LME 锌库存为50150吨，较上一交易日变化-375吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端增量预期不变。冶炼 ...