买家恢复俄油采购，油价持续下跌 市场要闻与重要数据 1、截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.55美元，收于每桶55.27美元，跌幅 为2.73%；2月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.64美元，收于每桶58.92美元，跌幅为2.71%。 2、 俄罗斯原油价格跌至俄乌冲突开始以来的最低水平，原因是西方的制裁加大了该国石油行业需要提供的折扣， 同时基准原油期货暴跌。Argus Media数据显示，俄罗斯石油出口商从波罗的海、黑海和东部港口科兹米诺港运出 的原油平均售价略高于每桶40美元。这比过去三个月下降了28%，近期针对石油巨头俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公 司的制裁措施进一步加大了折扣力度。西方国家对俄罗斯石油贸易施加的压力越来越大，使得俄罗斯石油的销售 和运输变得日益困难，相关措施也针对印度等主要买家的炼油厂。此外，全球基准原油价格也在下跌，布伦特原 油周二跌破每桶60美元，为5月份以来首次。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 特朗普在社媒发文表示，他下令"全面彻底封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮"，包围委内瑞拉的舰队只会越 来越大，给他们带来的冲击将是前所未有的——直到他 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the peak of short - term arrivals in China has passed, the inventory accumulation rate has slowed but the absolute inventory level remains high. Overseas gasoline cracking spreads are weak, and the price difference between the US and South Korea has been repaired. Domestic production has decreased due to low profits, and downstream demand remains weak. For styrene, port inventory has been falling, but the port basis has started to decline. Downstream demand is weak during the off - season [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+13), and the spot - M2 spread is - 140 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton). Styrene's main basis is 122 yuan/ton (-51 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 119 dollars/ton (+5 dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 dollars/ton (+6 dollars/ton). The US - South Korea price difference is 187.9 dollars/ton (-9.0 dollars/ton). Styrene's non - integrated production profit is - 146 yuan/ton (-46 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+0.00 million tons), and the operating rate is not mentioned. Styrene's East China port inventory is 134,700 tons (-12,100 tons), East China commercial inventory is 82,300 tons (-5,500 tons), and the operating rate is 68.3% (-0.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS production profit is 201 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton), PS production profit is 1 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 874 yuan/ton (+24 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 53.77% (-2.59%), PS operating rate is 58.30% (-0.70%), ABS operating rate is 70.53% (+2.23%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 360 yuan/ton (-30), phenol - acetone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 611 yuan/ton (-237), adipic acid production profit is - 1029 yuan/ton (+46). Caprolactam operating rate is 74.57% (-4.58%), phenol operating rate is 79.50% (-2.50%), aniline operating rate is 75.94% (-1.29%), adipic acid operating rate is 59.20% (-0.80%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Do reverse spreads for BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high - Cross - variety: None [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 铅价持续偏弱 操作暂转变为逢高卖出套保 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-16，LME铅现货升水为-51.52美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-150元/吨至16825 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-150 元/吨至16875元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-150元/吨至16825元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-150元/吨至16825元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至10025元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元 /吨。 期货方面：2025-12-16，沪铅主力合约开于17015元/吨，收于16825元/吨，较前一交易日变化-185元/吨，全天交易 日成交40679手，较前一交易日变化-833手，全天交易日持仓29732手，手较前一交易日变化-2664手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17015元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On Hold [7] - Options: Short Put [7] 2. Core View of the Report The December Fed FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and copper prices remained strong. The closing out of short hedging positions at the end of the year also pushed copper prices higher. However, these factors will gradually fade next week, so the continuous sharp rise of copper prices may slow down. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the suggested range between 90,500 yuan/ton and 91,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes On December 16, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 93,500 yuan/ton and closed at 91,920 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the previous trading day's close. The overnight session opened at 92,210 yuan/ton and closed at 91,830 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a discount of 180 - 70 yuan/ton to the next - month 2601 contract, with an average discount of 125 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 91,320 - 92,030 yuan/ton. Sellers were eager to sell, but buyers were reluctant to buy, leading to a continuous decline in spot premiums and light trading. After the 2512 contract was settled, spot is expected to remain at a large discount [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: In November, the US added 64,000 non - farm payrolls, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The average hourly wage increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest since May 2021. The data strengthened the Fed's loose monetary policy path [3]. - **Economic Indicators**: The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a 5 - month low. The Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all 6 - month lows [3]. - **Mine End**: Exploration company Kavango Resources started evaluating strategic options for its Kalahari copper belt interests in Botswana, including potential joint - venture partners. The review is in the early stage, and the outcome is uncertain. The company's copper assets in Botswana cover about 6,200 square kilometers, and early exploration results are encouraging [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 9.7% year - on - year to 1.103 million tons, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 2.5% month - on - month to 427,000 tons due to the narrowing price difference. The cumulative import of copper ore concentrates increased by 8% year - on - year to 27.614 million tons. Codelco's 2026 refined copper annual contract premium soared by 275% compared to 2025, driving spot purchases to non - US regions, and LME copper inventories dropped to a record low of 165,800 tons [5]. - **Consumption**: In November 2025, China's copper industry prosperity index was 39.7, down 2.0 points from the previous month, remaining in the "normal" range. The leading index was 73.4, down 2.1 points, and the coincident index was 74.3, down 3.6 points [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 166,600 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,558 tons to 45,784 tons. On December 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 164,500 tons, up 1,500 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the suggested range between 90,500 yuan/ton and 91,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7]. - **Options**: Short put [7].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas inventory surge leads to a shift from premium to discount, closing China's zinc ingot export window and suppressing zinc ingot prices. Domestic downstream replenishment enthusiasm increases as absolute prices fall, with market trading activity rising and spot premiums continuing to recover. The downward trend of mine TC persists, with domestic high - altitude mines reducing production and domestic ore supply decreasing, while smelter procurement demand remains strong. The comprehensive smelting losses of smelters widen, and December's supply may still be lower than expected. Short - term consumption resilience limits the depth of zinc price corrections, and long - term re - inflation is possible in the interest rate cut cycle [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$31.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,180 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot premium of 85 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,090 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 5 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,310 yuan/ton, closed at 23,030 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading volume was 138,540 lots, and the open interest was 73,193 lots. The highest price reached 23,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,935 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 125,700 tons, down 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 95,550 tons, up 31,075 tons from the previous day [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Strategies PVC - Investment Strategy: Unilateral - Oscillation; Inter - period - Wait - and - see; Inter - variety - None [4] Caustic Soda - Investment Strategy: Unilateral - Oscillation; Inter - period - Wait - and - see; Inter - variety - None [5] Group 2: Core Views PVC - PVC rebounds with the anti - involution sentiment in the macro - environment, and cost support is prominent. The news of the planned shutdown of a 450,000 - ton PVC plant in the US boosts the market sentiment, but the spot trading is weak after the price increase. The supply is expected to decrease slightly this week, and the overall supply pattern remains abundant. The downstream start - up rate generally declines, the inventory is slightly reduced but still at a high level. The comprehensive production profit of upstream PVC has decreased, and the export profit has shrunk, but the export orders have strengthened month - on - month [1][3] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market rebounds with the anti - involution sentiment, and the supply - demand situation has slightly improved. The spot price is mainly stable, and the trading volume has improved at low prices. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased, but it is still at a high level compared to the same period. The supply - side start - up rate is high, and the non - aluminum demand has weakened. Attention should be paid to the price trend of liquid chlorine, the dynamics of caustic soda plants, and the implementation details of the macro - anti - involution policy [2][3] Group 3: Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,399 yuan/ton (+84); the East China basis is - 19 yuan/ton (-34); the South China basis is 1 yuan/ton (-64) [1] - Spot Price: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,380 yuan/ton (+50); the South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,400 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - Upstream Production Profit: The semi - coke price is 780 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2,930 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 16 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC production is - 1,102 yuan/ton (-83); the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 520 yuan/ton (-48); the PVC export profit is 3.7 US dollars/ton (-6.9) [1] - Inventory and Start - up: The in - plant PVC inventory is 344,000 tons (+18,000); the social PVC inventory is 517,000 tons (-12,000); the start - up rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.13% (-2.96%); the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC is 76.67% (+4.75%); the overall PVC start - up rate is 78.39% (-0.62%) [1] - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 649,000 tons (-50,000) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures Price and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,160 yuan/ton (-3); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 90 yuan/ton (+34) [1] - Spot Price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+10); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (-10) [2] - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+31); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 665.0 yuan/ton (+71.3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 546.96 yuan/ton (+51.25); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 280.39 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2] - Inventory and Start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 457,100 tons (-47,700); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 34,500 tons (+800); the start - up rate of caustic soda is 86.20% (+0.20%) [2] - Downstream Start - up: The start - up rate of alumina is 86.11% (-0.09%); the start - up rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 62.74% (-1.72%); the start - up rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.62% (-1.67%) [2]

美经济成色数据趋弱 贵金属高位震荡 市场分析 美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至 4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。另外，10月非农就业大幅减少10.5万人，远超预期的下降2.5万人；8月和9月也 合计下修3.3万人。11月平均时薪同比增长3.5%，为2021年5月以来最低增速。整体看，就业市场数据巩固了美联储 继续宽松的货币政策路径。经济成色方面，美国12月标普全球制造业PMI初值下滑至51.8，创5个月新低。服务业 PMI初值则从54.1下滑至52.9，综合PMI初值下滑至53，均录得6个月新低。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-16，沪金主力合约开于983.34元/克，收于971.42元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-1.19%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于972.50元/克，收于974.22元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.29%。 2025-12-16，沪银主力合约开于14944.00元/千克，收于14666.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.86%。当日成交 量为1571 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-17 近期市场资讯，库存晚富士果农一般货源稍有松动，产区价格走弱后成交暂无明显好转，淡季影响仍表现明显。 西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农两级货源为主，成交有限，部分产区果农一般货源价格区间随质量下滑略降低， 成交不多；部分客商包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区零星出库，果脯及小果价格略有降低，少量维纳斯、奶油 果按需出库，其余货源基本尚未开始交易。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、70#出库价格 1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农货半商品出库价格3.8-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农一般通货出库价格3.7-4.5 元/斤不等。库存晚富士价格稳中偏弱，整体走货节奏缓慢，节日备货尚未开始，目前下游终端市场走货不快，低 价柑橘冲击依旧明显。预计今日成交维持平淡，主流价格稳定。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价震荡下跌，产区整体走货速度偏慢，双节备货热情不足，苹果质量欠佳，果农着急出售，终端走货 仍以按需采购为主，销区到货增加但消化不快，柑橘类低价对苹果中下等货源形成持续挤压，库存和优果偏低问 题持续存在。上周晚富士苹果主产区出库节奏偏缓，客商以按需采购为主，其 ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-17 豆一受终端消费低迷压制，花生油料交投难有起色 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4090.00元/吨，较前日变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.97%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01+110，较前日变化+40，幅度32.14%。 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2601合约7962.00元/吨，较前日变化-90.00元/吨，幅度-1.12%。现货方面，花生现货均价 8105.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.49%，现货基差PK01-1162.00，环比变化+90.00，幅度-7.19%。 市场资讯汇总：现货方面：昨日，全国花生市场通货米均价4.07元/斤，下跌0.01元/斤，其中，河南麦茬白沙通货 米好货3.5-3.9元/斤不等、8筛精米4.25-4.4元/斤，豫、鲁、冀大花生通货米3.4-4.5元/斤，辽宁、吉林白沙通货米4.6-4.8 元/斤、8筛精米5.1-5.25元/斤，花育23通货米4.4元/斤左右，以质论价。油厂油料米合同采购报价6800-7600元/吨， 部分工厂报价上调50元/吨，严控指标 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [11]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [11]. Report's Core View - The support for natural rubber is still at the cost - end. The conflict in Thailand and Cambodia and the rain in southern Thailand may support the raw material prices, but the overall supply is increasing. Domestic port inventory is expected to rise further, and downstream tire orders are in the off - season, resulting in weak supply - demand drivers [11]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, supply remains abundant. Downstream tire orders are in the off - season, with weak supply - demand drivers. The stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials provides some cost support [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - In the futures market, on the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,385 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,930 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton [1]. - In the spot market, the price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 10,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Market Information - In November 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks was 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales volume in the heavy - duty truck market this year [2]. - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million units and 3.429 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [2]. - In December 2025, the trading of all - steel tires was dull. Affected by the seasonal off - season, market demand weakened further. With relatively sufficient market supply, channels and terminal stores mainly focused on digesting existing inventory, and the enthusiasm for restocking was average. The market transaction price was stable with a weak trend, and some merchants carried out promotional activities according to their inventory [2]. - From January to October 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume reached 586.64 million, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2]. Import and Export Data - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified, latex, smoked sheets, primary shapes, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [3]. - According to QinRex data, in the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total exports of standard rubber were 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the exports of smoked sheet rubber were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the exports of latex were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the exports of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the exports of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the exports of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - On December 16, 2025, the RU basis was - 270 yuan/ton (+30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (- 30), the NR basis was 570 yuan/ton (- 35); the price of full - latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (unchanged); the STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (unchanged); the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,350 yuan/ton (- 100) [4][5]. - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.69 Thai baht/kg (+0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.50 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.25 Thai baht/kg (+1.89), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (- 1.39) [6]. - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.55% (+0.55%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.14% (+1.81%) [7]. - The social inventory of natural rubber was 498,888 tons (+10,159), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,123,406 tons (+20,841), the RU futures inventory was 56,990 tons (+11,460), and the NR futures inventory was 59,573 tons (+2,218) [7]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber - On December 16, 2025, the BR basis was - 330 yuan/ton (- 85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton (+100), the quoted price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 10,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private cis - butadiene rubber was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,207 yuan/ton (- 214) [8]. - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 70.69% (- 2.84%) [9]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,450 tons (+220), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (- 600) [10]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The support for natural rubber comes from the cost - end. The conflict in Thailand and Cambodia and the rain in southern Thailand are expected to keep the raw material prices in Thailand firm this week. However, the overall supply is increasing, and the domestic port inventory is expected to rise. The downstream tire orders are in the off - season, so the supply - demand drivers are weak [11]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. Yulong Petrochemical has restarted, and only Maoming Petrochemical is under maintenance, which is expected to restart in mid - January. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber remains abundant. The downstream tire orders are in the off - season, with weak supply - demand drivers. The stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials provides some cost support [11].