Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both apples and dates is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - Apple: The apple futures price declined slightly yesterday. The ground trading in the production areas has entered the later stage, and the current focus is on the warehousing work. There is a significant price polarization: high - quality goods remain firm, while the price of common - quality goods is weak. With the warehousing work in the western regions nearing completion, Shandong has become the trading center. It is expected that the warehousing volume will be lower than last year due to continuous rainfall [1][3][4] - Date: The date futures price also declined slightly yesterday. New - crop dates are more expensive than old - crop dates, leading to low market acceptance. As the harvest progresses in Xinjiang, there are concerns about supply pressure after the concentrated listing. It is expected that the price will face downward pressure in the short term [5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,919 yuan/ton, a change of - 21 yuan/ton or - 0.23% from the previous day - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1419 in Qixia and - 619 in Luochuan, with a change of + 21 from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price declined slightly yesterday. The ground trading in the production areas has entered the later stage, and the warehousing work is the current core. There is a significant price polarization: high - quality goods are firm due to scarcity, while the price of common - quality goods is weak due to increased supply. As the warehousing work in the western regions nears completion, Shandong has become the trading center. The enthusiasm of fruit farmers for self - warehousing has increased. The commodity rate of this year's late Fuji is low, and merchants are cautious about ordering common - quality goods. The warehousing work has been progressing slowly [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. After entering November, the warehousing work of the new - crop Fuji has started. Due to continuous rainfall, the warehousing volume is expected to be lower than last year [4] Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,705 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton or - 0.36% from the previous day - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 705, a change of - 115 from the previous day [5] Market Analysis - The date futures price declined slightly yesterday. The arrival volume in Hebei, Guangdong and other places is acceptable, but the new - crop dates are more expensive than the old - crop dates, resulting in low market acceptance. High - cost - performance old - crop dates are more popular. As the harvest progresses in Xinjiang, there are concerns about supply pressure after the concentrated listing, and downstream procurement is cautious. It is expected that the price will face downward pressure in the short term. Overall, the supply pressure in the production areas is gradually emerging, while the demand in the sales areas is insufficient [7] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The dates are about to be harvested. The date futures price has declined significantly recently, and market competition has intensified. Attention should be paid to changes in the purchase price and actual output [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, official inflation data is missing, causing some Fed officials to be concerned about the future monetary policy direction. Policy - makers should be more cautious in the case of data absence and reduced economic "visibility" [1] - The market's risk - aversion sentiment towards tariffs has subsided, which may slightly reduce the demand for gold investment. However, the increased volatility of risk assets may support the gold price in the short term. Gold is still a substitute for the U.S. dollar, so the gold price is expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillating pattern. The silver price shares the same macro - logic as gold, with slightly stronger fluctuations and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. federal government shutdown has led to the suspension of official inflation data release, making some Fed officials worried about the follow - up monetary policy. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is increasingly uneasy about further rate cuts due to the lack of key price data. Cleveland Fed President Hammack believes that high inflation is not conducive to further rate cuts and thinks current monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with inflation [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 913.50 yuan/gram and closed at 917.80 yuan/gram, a 0.61% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 920.30 yuan/gram and closed at 915.24 yuan/gram, a 0.28% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,297.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,427.00 yuan/kilogram, a 1.34% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 571,201 lots, and the open interest was 245,863 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,449 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,359 yuan/kilogram, a 0.60% decline from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 6, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.081%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.526%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On November 6, 2025, in the Au2512 contract, the long positions changed by 70 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by - 856 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 323,905 lots, a - 30.13% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2512 contract, the long positions changed by 515 lots, and the short positions changed by 837 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,027,806 lots, a - 26.10% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On the previous day, the gold ETF position was 1,038.63 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,151 tons, a decrease of 17 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 6, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 2.60 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 993.90 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.32, a - 0.72% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.28, a - 0.38% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On November 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 40,590 kilograms, a - 31.84% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 460,064 kilograms, a - 9.58% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kilograms [7] Strategies - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will be in an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2512 contract may oscillate between 900 yuan/gram and 930 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is also expected to be in an oscillating pattern, and the Ag2512 contract may oscillate between 11,100 yuan/kilogram and 11,600 yuan/kilogram [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has seen frequent positive news, but the economic foundation still needs to be consolidated. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released, with an expected average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the period, boosting market sentiment and economic expectations. The China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, and the domestic manufacturing PMI in October was 49, with production and new orders declining [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment risks, and the US government shutdown continues [1] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. Pay attention to potential breakthrough directions in non - ferrous metals and energy in the second half of inflation. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals [2] Market Analysis - The "15th Five - Year Plan" sets clear goals, and the expected average GDP growth rate during the period is around 5%, which boosts market sentiment [1] - The China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, including solutions to the TikTok issue, suspension of some US investigations and rules, and cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" [1] - In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, with a month - on - month value of - 0.8 and a difference of - 0.6 from the recent average. Production and new orders declined [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. The short - term funding shortage has not been significantly alleviated, and there is a 67.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 37th day, breaking the historical record. The 10 - month ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, and the "small non - farm" ADP added 42,000 new jobs in October [1] Commodity Analysis - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and there are price fluctuation risks. Pay attention to potential breakthrough directions in non - ferrous metals and energy in the second half of inflation [2] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector's long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector has a relatively loose medium - term supply [2] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worthy of attention. For agricultural products, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after short - term sharp fluctuations [2] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [3] Key News - The market strengthened with fluctuations throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 4000 points, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 2% in the afternoon. Over 2800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 2.07 trillion [4] - The US government shutdown has reached 36 days, a record high. Trump expects the stock market to reach a new high and calls for an end to the "lengthy debate" rule to restart the government [4] - Fed Governor Milan believes that the ADP small non - farm employment report is better than expected, and the labor demand is not as strong as expected. He believes that the Fed's monetary policy is too restrictive and further interest rate cuts are reasonable [4] - Key conservative Supreme Court justices questioned the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the final ruling may shake Trump's signature economic policy [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Demand-side support is insufficient, supply is abundant, and cost-side support is limited, which are the factors driving the continuous weak downward trend of propylene. The peak of device maintenance has passed, and some PDH devices have stopped production, but the supply remains abundant. The downstream demand is mainly rigid, and the overall downstream start-up rate has declined. The international oil price and external propane prices are weak, weakening the cost support for propylene [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Propylene Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [6][8][10] II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It covers figures on the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][17][18] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents figures on the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][46] V. Propylene Inventory - The report shows figures on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory of pure benzene has increased again, indicating weak downstream提货 demand. Although the domestic pure benzene operating rate is rising from the bottom, the operating rates of downstream products such as styrene, phenol, and CPL are not ideal, except for the rebound in adipic acid operating rate [1][3] - Styrene is in the maintenance period, with factory inventory decreasing and port inventory starting to decline this week. However, downstream operating rates are poor, and the inventory pressure of the three major hard rubber products persists. As the port inventory of styrene decreases, the basis rebounds slightly, and low - level transactions improve [3] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to the basis of pure benzene and EB, including the basis of pure benzene futures contracts, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, and the inter - period spreads of pure benzene and EB are presented [8][12][14] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Information on the production profits of pure benzene and styrene, such as the processing fees of naphtha, the spreads between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, and the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, as well as internal and external spreads are provided [17][20][30] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Data on the inventory and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene are given, including the port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene [1][38][40] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - The operating rates and production profits of styrene downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS are shown, with EPS operating rate dropping rapidly while PS operating rate rising slightly and ABS operating rate slightly decreasing [2][49][54] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Information on the operating rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products like caprolactam, phenolic ketone, aniline, and adipic acid is provided, with different trends in their operating rates and production profits [1][58][81] Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy - Basis and Inter - Period: Go long on the spread of EB2512 - EB2601 at low levels - Cross - Product: No strategy [4]

油脂日报 | 2025-11-07 油脂震荡运行，宏观或影响未来行情 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8732.00元/吨，环比变化+142元，幅度+1.65%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8188.00 元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.61%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9564.00元/吨，环比变化+157.00元，幅度+1.67%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8570.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.59%，现货基差P01-162.00，环比变 化-92.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8330.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.24%，现货基差Y01+142.00， 环比变化-30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9910.00元/吨，环比变化+150.00元，幅度+1.54%，现货基差 OI01+346.00，环比变化-7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美湾大豆(12月船期)C&F价格506美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调6美元/吨；美西大豆(12月船 期)C&F价格506美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调4美元/吨；巴西大豆(12月船期)C&F价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][6] Core Views - Short - term cotton prices face limited upside due to hedging pressure and weak demand, but are optimistic in the long - term due to low initial inventory and resilient consumption [2] - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate until the end of the year and may hit new lows next year due to global supply surplus [4] - Pulp prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a low level as the fundamentals improve insufficiently, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: India's cotton initial inventory in the 2025.10 - 2026.9 season is expected to reach about 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 55%, and the import volume from October to December may be 340,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made progress, but the actual purchase volume of US cotton by China is uncertain. The US government shutdown has delayed key data release, and the short - term upside of the outer market is limited due to supply pressure and weak export signing [2] - Domestic: The new cotton market starts with low inventory, but the supply has been supplemented. The rising purchase price of seed cotton and the expected decline in production support the post - holiday market, but the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited due to hedging and weak demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. There is a possibility of a callback in the short - term, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5448 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+ 0.13%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Market News: As of November 4, 21 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, India have started operations, and more are expected to start soon [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Supply surplus has pushed prices below 15 cents. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined, the global sugar market may still be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season [3] - Zhengzhou sugar: The expected increase in domestic sugar production is strong, but the price is near the cost line, and the downward space is limited due to policy support [4] Strategy - Neutral. Oscillate until the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5368 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.15%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5060 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [4] - Market News: The spot price of imported wood pulp showed a strengthening trend, with some prices up 10 - 70 yuan/ton [4] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact. Domestic imports have rebounded, and port inventories remain high [5] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand. Downstream paper mills purchase cautiously and do not stock up on a large scale [5] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to peak - season demand [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the trading and position data of various market sectors on November 6, 2025, including the trading volume, position volume, trading - position ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day, to reflect the market liquidity situation [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position volume, position amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][2][8] 2. Stock Index Plate - On November 6, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 6927.35 billion yuan, a - 9.08% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 13297.99 billion yuan, a - 1.92% change; the trading - position ratio was 52.05%. There are also data on the rise - fall rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [1][9][11] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 3421.18 billion yuan, a + 17.07% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 8836.37 billion yuan, a + 0.44% change; the trading - position ratio was 38.45%. There are also data on the rise - fall rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][26][22] 4. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the basic metal plate was 3463.39 billion yuan, a - 5.55% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 5769.86 billion yuan, a + 2.28% change; the trading - position ratio was 67.20%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 4717.50 billion yuan, a - 28.16% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 4258.78 billion yuan, a + 1.48% change; the trading - position ratio was 131.87%. There are also data on the rise - fall rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [1][36][34] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 3924.95 billion yuan, a + 0.98% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 4572.99 billion yuan, a + 1.96% change; the trading - position ratio was 73.16%. There are also data on the rise - fall rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [1][44][43] 6. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 3123.80 billion yuan, a - 8.92% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 5777.27 billion yuan, a + 1.32% change; the trading - position ratio was 50.61%. There are also data on the rise - fall rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural product plate [1][48][53] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 2326.90 billion yuan, a - 5.93% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 3809.56 billion yuan, a + 1.43% change; the trading - position ratio was 58.79%. There are also data on the rise - fall rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][58][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, most treasury bond futures closed lower the previous day. Overall, the increasing uncertainty in global trade adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Related Catalog I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - The monthly China CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; the monthly China PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan and a rate of +0.79%. M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, down 0.40% from the previous value with a rate of - 4.55%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.80% from the previous value with a rate of - 1.61% [10]. - The dollar index was 99.70, down 0.46 with a rate of - 0.46%. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1272, down 0.004 with a rate of - 0.05%. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, with no change in value and a rate of - 0.14%. DR007 was 1.43, down 0.01 with a rate of - 0.86%. R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 with a rate of +1.49%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, up 0.00 with a rate of +0.18%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, down 0.01 with a rate of +0.18% [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report presents multiple graphs including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 traders in various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 traders in various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [14][16][17][20]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation The report shows graphs about the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, the issuance of local government bonds, the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T) [24][25][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report presents graphs of the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [33][34][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows graphs of the implied interest rate and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [36][39][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes graphs of the implied interest rate and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][53]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows graphs of the implied yield and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents graphs of the implied yield and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [63][65][69]. Strategy - For single - side trading, with the decline of the repurchase rate and the fluctuating price of treasury bond futures, the outlook for the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract [4]. - For hedging, as there is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, short - position traders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve with stable spot prices, southwest production cuts, and a decrease in social inventory. The industrial silicon valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the market may rise. For trading, short - term interval operations are recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [1][2] - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but there is a large inventory pressure, and downstream production may weaken. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly. Short - term interval operations are recommended, with the 12 - contract expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [4][6] Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On November 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,050 yuan/ton and closed at 9,065 yuan/ton, up 1.17% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 236,855 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 46,281 lots, an increase of 86 lots from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1] - As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous week [1] - The supply of petroleum coke tightened, and the demand provided effective support. SMM expected the short - term price to fluctuate strongly. The price of raw coal was good, supporting the cost of silicon coal, and there was a bullish expectation for the silicon coal price in some regions in the short term [1] - The consumption side: The reported price of silicone DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market showed a situation of rising in name but falling in fact. The mainstream transaction price was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of about 11,150 yuan/ton, an increase of about 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The DMC price of Shandong monomer enterprises was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the DMC prices of other domestic monomer enterprises also increased slightly [2] Polysilicon - On November 6, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 53,455 yuan/ton and closed at 53,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 122,244 lots (125,062 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 256,104 lots [3][4] - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons, a decrease of 0.77% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 4.30% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.45GW, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month [4] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.32 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece), the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.69 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece [4] - The production of polysilicon in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the production in the southwest region would be significantly reduced [4] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W [5] Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Spot prices are stable, production in the southwest is cut, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon market is affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. The rising price of thermal coal and the expected strengthening of silicon coal prices support industrial silicon. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy promotion, the market may rise [2] - For trading, short - term interval operations are recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [2] Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon have slightly improved, but the overall inventory pressure is large, and downstream production may weaken. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management. Currently, the consumption side performs averagely, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [6] - For trading, short - term interval operations are recommended, with the 12 - contract expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [6]