FICC日报 | 2025-09-16 再提"全国统一大市场"，商品情绪有所提振 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。国内8月外部压力边际增加，一是中国8月出口有所转弱，尤其是对美出口，但非美出口的韧 性也对后续出口提供支撑；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，墨西哥拟对贸易伙伴加征关税，据英国《金融时 报》和路透社披露，特朗普鼓动欧盟对中国和印度加征"二级关税"；为了应对边际增加的外部压力，国内近期频 提稳增长政策。9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"；发改委也表 示"不断释放内需潜力""推进重点行业产能治理"。关注后续更具体的政策内容。商务部决定自2025年9月13日起对 原产于美国的进口相关模拟芯片进行反倾销立案调查。中美双方于9月14-17日在西班牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行 会谈。此外，中国8月新增社融2.57万亿元，新增贷款5900亿元，企业新发放贷款利率保持历史低位，M2-M1剪刀 差创四年新低。中国8月规模以上工业增加值同比 5.2%，预期增5.7%，前值增5.7%，装备制造业和高技术制造业 增势较好；中国8月社零同比增速放缓至3.4%，家电和音像器材类零售增速放缓 ...

Report Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.41% at 2,799 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.65% at 3,375 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are in a range-bound oscillation. With the peak of refinery autumn maintenance approaching, demand will decline seasonally. Under the trend of continuous OPEC production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to gradually loosen. However, due to geopolitical uncertainties and low actual inventories, the short-term direction of oil prices is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the market rebalancing stage, with both long and short factors intertwined. Near-term supply is relatively abundant, and Singapore's inventory is at a high level. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East and other regions is expected to gradually decline, and high-sulfur fuel oil exports still have room for growth. On the positive side, Russian and Iranian supplies are affected by drone attacks and sanctions respectively, and Middle East fuel oil shipments in September have also significantly declined. Overall, short-term market contradictions for high-sulfur fuel oil are limited. If refinery demand improves significantly, the market will receive new support [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent shutdown of the RFCC unit at Nigeria's Dangote refinery has increased low-sulfur fuel oil exports, increasing market supply pressure. However, the volume of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has declined, and there is no expectation of serious oversupply. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradiction of demand share being replaced and having more surplus capacity. Therefore, while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [2] Directory Summaries Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.41% at 2,799 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.65% at 3,375 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are in a range-bound oscillation. With the peak of refinery autumn maintenance approaching, demand will decline seasonally. Under the trend of continuous OPEC production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to gradually loosen. However, due to geopolitical uncertainties and low actual inventories, the short-term direction of oil prices is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the market rebalancing stage, with both long and short factors intertwined. Near-term supply is relatively abundant, and Singapore's inventory is at a high level. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East and other regions is expected to gradually decline, and high-sulfur fuel oil exports still have room for growth. On the positive side, Russian and Iranian supplies are affected by drone attacks and sanctions respectively, and Middle East fuel oil shipments in September have also significantly declined. Overall, short-term market contradictions for high-sulfur fuel oil are limited. If refinery demand improves significantly, the market will receive new support [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent shutdown of the RFCC unit at Nigeria's Dangote refinery has increased low-sulfur fuel oil exports, increasing market supply pressure. However, the volume of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has declined, and there is no expectation of serious oversupply. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradiction of demand share being replaced and having more surplus capacity. Therefore, while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [2] Strategy - High-sulfur: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [3] - Low-sulfur: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

贵金属板块成交3350.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-29.88%；持仓金额5044.83亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.01%；成交 持仓比为80.65%。 能源化工板块成交4203.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.90%；持仓金额4380.09亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.91%；成 交持仓比为80.02%。 农产品板块成交3457.56亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.29%；持仓金额5498.93亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.60%；成 交持仓比为65.12%。 流动性日报 | 2025-09-16 市场流动性概况 2025-09-15，股指板块成交7132.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-17.13%；持仓金额13125.18亿元，较上一交易日变动 -5.02%；成交持仓比为53.98%。 国债板块成交3661.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-20.19%；持仓金额7347.23亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.52%；成交 持仓比为50.86%。 基本金属板块成交3210.31亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.46%；持仓金额5265.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.53%； 成交持仓比为76.86%。 黑色建材板块成交3087 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market continues to be weak, with supply remaining abundant and demand showing slight improvement. The inventory is high, and there is still room for profit compression. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution policies [4]. - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight decline. The demand support is weakening, but cost support exists. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm before the holidays and the production - start rhythm of Guangxi alumina [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4921 yuan/ton (+45), the East China basis is - 201 yuan/ton (+5), and the South China basis is - 131 yuan/ton (-15) [2]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+50), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4790 yuan/ton (+30) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 502 yuan/ton (-81), and the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 672 yuan/ton (-1). The PVC export profit is 7.4 dollars/ton (+0.2) [2]. - Inventory and production - start: The PVC factory inventory is 31.0 tons (-0.6), the social inventory is 53.2 tons (-0.1), the calcium carbide - based production - start rate is 80.29% (+2.64%), the ethylene - based production - start rate is 77.20% (+4.61%), and the overall production - start rate is 79.39% (+3.21%) [2]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 68.9 tons (+1.8) [2]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2571 yuan/ton (+11), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 70 yuan/ton (-89) [2]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 845 yuan/ton (-25), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1650 yuan/ton (-78), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 746.4 yuan/ton (-78.1) [3]. - Inventory and production - start: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 35.68 tons (-3.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda production - start rate is 83.40% (-0.80%) [3]. - Downstream production - start: The alumina production - start rate is 85.21% (+0.83%), the printing and dyeing production - start rate in East China is 65.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber production - start rate is 87.77% (+0.67%) [3]. Market Analysis - **PVC**: The overall PVC market remains weak, with supply and demand improving slightly. New production - start devices increase supply, and downstream demand is improving but export expectations in the fourth quarter are weakening. The inventory is high, and there is still room for profit compression. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [4]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight decline. Chlor - alkali enterprise production - start rates are slightly decreasing. Demand support is weakening, but cost support exists. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm before the holidays and the production - start rhythm of Guangxi alumina [4]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V01 - 05 spread when it is low [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side: Wait and see [6]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [6]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [6] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there have been frequent supply - side disturbances in the copper market, with low TC prices and an unstable supply situation in the scrap copper industry. Although the demand is not outstanding, it is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. The "Golden September and Silver October" expectation may affect market sentiment. With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting and a high probability of a September rate cut, copper prices may maintain a volatile and bullish pattern. It is advisable to conduct buy - hedging at dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 15, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 80,750 yuan/ton and closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 80,890 yuan/ton and closed at 81,380 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper narrowed slightly. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,780 - 81,100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) over the main contract. The last trading day saw light trading. It is expected that the spot premium may show a pattern of high quotes and low transactions [2]. Important Information Summary - Economic data: The US September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply by 21 points to - 8.7, far below the market expectation of 5. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates immediately [3]. - Tariffs: China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - Mine end: Due to a mudslide at the Grasberge copper mine in Indonesia, only the Block Cave has stopped operation, and the overall mining operation in the Grasberg area is currently at 30% of normal capacity [3]. Smelting and Import - LME copper inventories are fluctuating, with the latest at 153,950 tons, a one - month low. SHFE copper inventories increased by 14.91% to 94,054 tons, a two - and - a - half - month high. COMEX copper inventories reached a new high since mid - August 2003. As of September 9, the net long position of funds in COMEX copper futures rebounded to 27,241 lots [4]. Consumption - Last week, the operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 67.53%, and the copper cable enterprise operating rate rose slightly to 67.62%. This week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises may rise to 70.79%, while that of cable enterprises is expected to drop slightly to 67.5% [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 152,625 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,083 tons to 30,643 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 15.42 million tons, a change of 0.99 million tons from the previous week [5]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom support of nickel and stainless steel prices is relatively stable, and the prices are rising. Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, easily affected by macro - sentiment, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding as inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks and material costs have risen. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,580 yuan/ton, a change of 1.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 102,679 (- 42,422) lots, and the open interest was 70,610 (- 2,030) lots. The night session of the main contract stabilized at a high level, standing above 122,000 yuan/ton. After the opening of the day session, it declined slightly but then rose with the overall metal sector, reaching a maximum of 122,900 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel Ore - The market remained calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. Downstream nickel - iron had a strong bullish sentiment, but iron plants were still in the red and were cautious in nickel - ore procurement. In Indonesia, the supply remained loose, with the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars. The current domestic trade premium was +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was generally average, and the premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand were slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,959 (+1,430) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 224,484 (- 600) tons [2]. Strategy for Nickel - Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, and the overall strategy is based on range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,945 yuan/ton and closed at 13,070 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 180,934 (+180,934) lots, and the open interest was 133,829 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session trend was stable, but after the opening of the day session, affected by the price increase of a large domestic stainless - steel plant, the price rose strongly, reaching a maximum of 13,100 yuan/ton and slightly retracting at the close [3]. Spot - Affected by the rise of the futures price, the spot price increased. Although the acceptance of high - priced goods was low, inquiries increased significantly, market activity improved, and actual transactions were fair. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - With inventory decreasing for nine consecutive weeks and material costs rising, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton inventory has reached a four - year low, and the supply - demand situation of US cotton in the new year is expected to improve, but the short - term upward space of US cotton is restricted. The domestic cotton price has strong short - term support, but there is also pressure during the new flower listing period. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, the international raw sugar price is under pressure but has a certain support, and the domestic sugar price is driven downward in the short term but the downward space is limited [5] - Regarding pulp, there is still supply pressure, and the demand side is weak. In the short term, the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,885 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,167 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] - According to the USDA's September report, in the 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton seasons, the global cotton output, consumption, and trade volume increased, and the ending inventory decreased [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand data in the new year has improved, but the US cotton export sales progress is slow. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the supply is tight at the end of the year, and the demand has improved marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure during the new flower listing period is large [2] Strategy - If the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fails or is not good enough, the Zhengzhou cotton price may fall. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day. The spot prices in Nanning, Guangxi and Kunming, Yunnan remained unchanged [4] - The USDA predicts that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 9.47 million short tons, and the inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2%. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of 2025 [4] Market Analysis - The international raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased production but has support from the ethanol price. The domestic sugar price has been following the international market down due to poor sales and concerns about syrup policies [5] Strategy - The short - term domestic sugar price is driven downward, but the downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound while the price oscillates at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,056 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (+1.32%) from the previous day. The spot prices of different pulp types in Shandong had different changes [6] - The import wood pulp spot market had mixed price trends, with different price adjustment ranges for different pulp types [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, although there are overseas pulp mill production cut news, the supply pattern has not changed significantly, and the domestic pulp import volume is expected to decline. The port inventory is high, so the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the global pulp consumption is weak, and the domestic demand is also lackluster [8] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-16 宏观预期渐浓，钢价震荡偏强 钢材：宏观预期渐浓，钢价震荡偏强 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材期货价格震荡上涨，现货方面，钢材现货成交一般，低价成交尚可，以终端和前期超卖补 库为主，投机情绪一般。全国建材成交11.76万吨，钢银数据显示钢材库存有所增长。 供需与逻辑：当前库存压力下，建材基本面矛盾有所增加，价格表现承压。板材需求韧性仍在，基本面表现平稳， 价格相对偏强，关注需求改善力度。伴随美联储降息概率增长，市场对于后期国内政策加码预期渐浓，同时反内 卷政策和双节补库预期共同刺激，钢材价格表现偏强。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：发运显著回升，铁矿跟随板块 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅走弱，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商 报价积极性一般，钢厂采购多以刚需为主。供给方面，本期全球铁矿石发运显著回升，全球发运总量3573万吨， 其中巴西和非主流发运明显增长。本期45港铁矿石到港量为2362万吨，周环比减少86万吨。昨日 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-09-16 美经济数据维持弱势 中美经贸谈判达成框架共识 市场分析 经济数据方面，美国9月纽约联储制造业指数急剧下降21个点，至-8.7，远低于市场预期的5。新订单以及出货量 指标均跌至2024年4月以来的最低水平；疲软的经济数据推动市场交易可能出现的超预期宽松。美国总统特朗普 在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文表示，"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威尔必须立即降息，而且幅度必须比他预想 的更大。关税方面，中美经贸中方牵头人何立峰与美方牵头人贝森特在西班牙马德里举行会谈，就以合作方式妥 善解决TikTok相关问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。双方将就相关成果文件进行 磋商，并履行各自国内批准程序。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-09-15，沪金主力合约开于833.82 元/克，收于 831.60 元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.31%。当日成交量 为 131159手，持仓量为 104349手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于833.48 元/克，收于 839.08元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.90%。 2025-09-15，沪银主力合约开于 10018元/千克，收于 10017 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; For inter - period, after the restart of the main PDH, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the spread is high; For inter - variety, none [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of two PDH units in Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei has increased the supply, weakening the supply - side support and causing the spot price of propylene to decline. Some units are still under maintenance. On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream have been significantly compressed, and the overall operating rate has decreased month - on - month. Some downstream products have reduced their purchasing enthusiasm due to cost pressure, which may suppress the upward space of propylene. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, oil prices have rebounded, and the price of external propane has continued to strengthen, boosting market sentiment and causing the propylene futures to fluctuate higher [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The main contract closing price of propylene is 6442 yuan/ton (+22), the East China basis is 58 yuan/ton (-97), and the North China basis is 173 yuan/ton (-107) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 73% (-2%), the China CFR propylene - Japan CFR naphtha is 207 US dollars/ton (+11), and the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 95 US dollars/ton (+13) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 279 yuan/ton (-70) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 33% (-4.04%), production profit is - 215 yuan/ton (+85); Epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49); N - butanol operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (+53); Octanol operating rate is 96% (+1%), production profit is 65 yuan/ton (+61); Acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 485 yuan/ton (+153); Acrylonitrile operating rate is 72% (-1%), production profit is - 539 yuan/ton (+111); Phenol - acetone operating rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is - 272 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]