农产品日报 | 2025-06-25 产区天气改善，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3037元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%；菜粕2509合约2662元/吨，较前 日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.19%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2940元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-97， 较前日变动+0；江苏地区豆粕现货2850元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09-187，较前日变动-10；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2880元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-157，较前日变动+0。福建地区菜粕现货价格2640 元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差RM09-22，较前日变动-15。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部出口检验报告显示，截至6月19日当周，美国大豆出口检验量19.3万吨，上周为22.3万 吨，去年同期35万吨。2024/25年度迄今美国大豆出口检验量4562万吨，同比增长10.6%，达到全年出口目标的90.6%。 截至6月22日当周，美国大豆播种工作完成96%，上周96%，上年同期96%，五年均值97%。大豆优良率为66% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The credit spreads of the entire industry have recently declined slightly, but there are risks such as unexpected economic policies and global geopolitical conflicts [3]. - Upstream: International oil prices dropped significantly yesterday, and egg prices have recently rebounded [3]. - Midstream: The operating rates of polyester, PTA, and urea in the chemical industry have seasonally declined, while the PX operating rate has remained stable [3]. - Downstream: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low, and the number of domestic flights has periodically decreased [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the entire industry have recently declined slightly [3]. 3.2 Upstream - **Energy**: International oil prices dropped significantly compared to the previous day [3]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices have recently rebounded [3]. 3.3 Midstream - **Chemical Industry**: The operating rates of polyester, PTA, and urea have seasonally declined, while the PX operating rate has remained stable [3]. 3.4 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a near - three - year low [3]. - **Service Industry**: The number of domestic flights has periodically decreased [3]. 3.5 Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries have generally declined. For example, the credit spreads of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry decreased from 56.87BP last week to 56.12BP this week; the chemical industry decreased from 50.48BP to 47.16BP [47]. 3.6 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: The spot price of eggs increased by 4.46% year - on - year to 5.9 yuan/kg on June 24, while the spot price of corn was 2345.7 yuan/ton, up 0.43% year - on - year [48]. - **Energy**: The spot price of WTI crude oil was 68.5 dollars/barrel on June 24, down 4.54% year - on - year; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 71.5 dollars/barrel, down 2.39% year - on - year [48]. - **Chemical Industry**: The spot price of PTA was 5114.0 yuan/ton on June 24, up 1.37% year - on - year; the spot price of urea was 1804.0 yuan/ton, down 0.88% year - on - year [48]. - **Real Estate**: The cement price index nationwide was 137.8 on June 24, down 1.95% year - on - year; the building materials composite index was 111.0, down 0.75% year - on - year [48].

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-25 伊朗冲突放缓，甲醇价格大幅回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润720元/吨（-18）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2015元/吨（-18），内蒙北线基差236元/吨（+108），内蒙南线2060元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2305元/吨（-73）， 鲁南基差126元/吨（+53）；河南2240元/吨（-25），河南基差61元/吨（+100）；河北2220元/吨（+0），河北基差101 元/吨（+125）。隆众内地工厂库存367350吨（-11770），西北工厂库存237000吨（-100）；隆众内地工厂待发订单274780 吨（-27310），西北工厂待发订单149500吨（-17500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2640元/吨（-100），太仓基差261元/吨（+25），CFR中国302美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差89元 /吨（+27），常州甲醇2490元/吨；广东甲醇2465元/吨（-135），广东基差86元/吨（-10）。隆众港口总库存586400吨 （-65800），江苏港口库存293500吨（- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC market is weak with ample supply and sluggish demand, and the decline in social inventory has slowed down. The caustic soda market is also weak, with expected increased supply pressure and lack of positive drivers in the short term [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,844 yuan/ton (-52), the East China basis was -114 yuan/ton (+2), and the South China basis was -24 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (-50), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was -494 yuan/ton (+18), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was -640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was -11.4 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), the social inventory of PVC was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.62% (-0.83%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall operation rate of PVC was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,274 yuan/ton (+2), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 164 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 91.28 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the operation rate of caustic soda was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina was 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The easing of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the weak macro - sentiment have dragged down the PVC price. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The supply is abundant, the cost support is weak, the domestic demand is sluggish, and the export is increasing but has uncertainties [3] Caustic Soda - The operation rate of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to intensify. The market transaction is weak, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined, and the demand side is also weak. The factory inventory is still at a high level [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, pay attention to macro - export policies and the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral, the price has limited downward space in the short term, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress [4]

化工日报 | 2025-06-25 以伊冲突缓和，成本松动下EG下跌 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4332元/吨（较前一交易日变动-169元/吨，幅度-3.75%），EG华东市场现货价 4415元/吨（较前一交易日变动-155元/吨，幅度-3.39%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）81元/吨（环比+3元/ 吨）。EG价格大幅下跌，主要原因是伊朗和以色列停战下原油大跌。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-47美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为250元/吨（环比-10 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.2万吨（环比+0.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为53.7万吨（环比-2.7万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数7.7万吨，港口库存平稳；本周 华东主港计划到港总数6.2万吨，偏少，港口库存可能再度下降。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供增需减趋势。供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，6月供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但是仓单 陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，伊朗乙二醇停车装置陆续恢复 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-25 盘面大幅回调，现货市场趋于谨慎 市场分析 1、6月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3580元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌189元/吨，跌幅 5.01%；持仓269578手，环比下降41754手，成交460577手，环比上涨143526手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3980—4086元/吨；山东，3730—4030元/吨；华南，3650—3750元/吨； 华东，3700—3800元/吨。 随着伊朗和以色列双方均宣布正式停火，中东局势显著缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，已 基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅，并带动包括沥青在内的能源板块期货整体下跌。现货方面，昨日华北、山东 以及川渝地区沥青现货价格均有所下跌，西北以及华东地区沥青现货价格小涨，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为 主。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。由于沥青刚性需求较为疲软，情绪仍较为 谨慎，整体市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoint - As the traditional consumption peak season for lead batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the probability of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low, and there may be a possibility of a short squeeze. It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.26/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,925 yuan/ton, closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,403 lots, an increase of 8,197 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 19,560 lots, a decrease of 8,713 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,005 yuan/ton and a low of 16,870 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,090 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price for ex-factory sales, and traders offered discounts of 200 - 130 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507/2508 contracts for ex-factory sales. In the Hunan region, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, but the trading volume was weak. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui regions offered premiums of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Individual traders in Guangdong and Tianjin regions had firm quotes and were waiting and seeing. The lead futures price rose slightly during the day, and downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement. The overall market trading volume was light [2] Inventory - On June 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 24, the LME lead inventory was 277,375 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is cautiously bullish, and for silver is also cautiously bullish. The rating for arbitrage and options is to postpone [8]. Core Viewpoints - The Fed officials have differences on the interest - rate path, and geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver prices are affected by Fed policies and geopolitical situations. Gold prices are in a volatile pattern, and silver prices have strong fluctuations. The operation suggestions for gold and silver are to be cautiously bullish, while arbitrage and options operations should be postponed [1][8]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Fed Chair Powell believes the current policy is in a favorable position and can wait to consider interest - rate adjustments. However, there are differences within the Fed. Bostic expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut later this year, while others like Hammack think there is no urgent need to cut rates. Geopolitically, Trump has complex statements about the Israel - Iran cease - fire and regime change in Iran, and there are disputes over the US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 782.00 yuan/gram and closed at 771.86 yuan/gram, down 1.21% from the previous trading day. The volume was 248,445 lots, and the open interest was 147,344 lots. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,750 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,739 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The volume was 446,808 lots, and the open interest was 341,852 lots [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 24, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.34%, down 0.01% from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 - year spread was 0.55%, up 5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 173 lots, and the short positions decreased by 614 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts increased by 50.23% to 501,680 lots. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions were 120 lots, and the short positions increased by 89 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts decreased by 9.30% to 795,077 lots [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 955.68 tons, down 1.72 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,877.49 tons, down 73.50 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 24, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 0.66 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 649.13 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 88.32, down 0.86% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 92.98, down 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 51,470 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 304,350 kilograms, down 30.01% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,282 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 66,330 kilograms [7]. Strategies - For gold, it is advisable to enter the market with a light position (10% - 15% position) at the current price and add to the position to about 30% near 730 yuan/gram, with a stop - loss at 708 yuan/gram. For silver, continue to buy on dips for hedging, and pay more attention to position control and strict stop - loss execution. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging near 8,640 yuan/kilogram for the Ag2508 contract, with a stop - loss near 8,590 yuan/kilogram [8].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 现货升水维持高涨，沪镍窄幅震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-24日沪镍主力合约2507开于117440元/吨，收于117450元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.44%，当日成交量 为96087手，持仓量为52007手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘开盘小幅下跌后横盘振荡，日盘开盘小幅反弹受阻后振荡下跌，午后小幅反弹，收十字线。成 交量较上个交易日小幅下降，持仓量较上个交易日小幅下降。美国总统特朗普称，以色列和伊朗停火协议现已生 效。央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，要夯实宏观经济金融基础，支持居民就 业增收，优化保险保障，积极培育消费需求。强化结构性货币政策工具激励，加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持， 发展债券、股权等多元化融资渠道。菲律宾，矿山报价维持坚挺。受降雨天气影响，装船出货效率不高。现货市 场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日下调约400元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应下调，日内镍价弱势振荡， 日内镍价偏弱运行，精炼镍贸易商上调现货升贴水，但下游接受程度有限，现货成交整体偏淡。其中金川镍升水 变化250元/吨至3000元/吨，进口镍 ...

中东问题对铝价形成一定扰动 重要数据 铝现货方面：MM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20540元/吨，较上一交易日下跌110元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至140元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20360元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌10元/吨至-30元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20420元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至35元 /吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 铝期货方面：2025-06-24日沪铝主力合约开于20415元/吨，收于20315元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌105元/ 吨，跌幅-0.51%，最高价达20450元/吨，最低价达到20255元/吨。全天交易日成交136633手，较上一交易日减 少44423手，全天交易日持仓250085手，较上一交易日减少3512手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存46.4万吨。截止2025-06-24，LME铝库存339900 吨，较前一交易日减少1075吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-24 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3120元/吨，山东价格录得 ...