Hua Tai Qi Huo
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积极等待市场低点
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 07:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Analysis** - **Macro Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, with a short - term downturn. For major global debtors, the expansion of US fiscal spending means the economic aggregate is entering an expansion cycle, but the expansion rhythm is uncertain. If fiscal spending is faster than economic downward pressure, it is "preventive"; otherwise, the risk of a short - term downward cycle increases [2]. - **Price Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and price resilience needs to be eliminated. The "inflation - deflation" relationship between the two major global economies depends on the distribution of the production and consumption systems. In the context of the China - US game, the spill - over effect of US fiscal expansion on China will weaken, promoting the establishment of China's domestic "internal - cycle" debt - consumption system. Before the new cycle starts in October, the "inflation - deflation" contradiction may intensify in the short term [2]. - **Policy Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and there is a policy window period. From the perspective of the US dollar cycle, the liquidity expansion (liabilities) driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle requires corresponding financial market pools (assets). For the US financial sector, the leverage will be released in October, and China's fiscal policy also needs further guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session in October. In September, the Fed's policy easing may face a macro - reality of "lack of assets" or even "asset shocks" [2]. - **Strategy** - **Strategic**: The macro - strategy maintains a positive right - side judgment. Both the US and China have released clear fiscal expansion signals, driving macro - allocation to turn positive. However, the rhythm of policy release is uncertain, causing short - term disturbances. Short - term market adjustments may provide space for medium - term asset allocation [3]. - **Tactical**: In September, maintain a low - risk allocation and hold volatility - hedging positions, actively waiting for the market low point. In the short term, market pressure may continue to flatten the yield curve [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Economic Status: Supply - Driven Improvement in Prosperity - The short - term pressure has eased according to the Huatai Macro Heat Tracking. International trade activities have improved due to tariff relaxation, and short - term production activity repairs have driven the improvement of macro - prosperity. However, the internal consumption demand of major economies is still below the "water level" [7]. Price Factors: Attention to Japan's Inflation Resilience - Prices have stabilized in the short term. The inflation heat value in August was - 0.64, a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The US inflation data in August showed certain resilience, but the Fed has downplayed the consideration of inflation in its policy framework, shifting the focus to the labor market. Globally, Japan's inflation resilience is worthy of attention, which may drive its monetary policy to remain relatively tight and put further pressure on Asian currency liquidity [13]. Policy Conditions: Short - Term Pressure May Increase - **External**: US economic policies have shifted from uncertainty to certainty. In September, there is a risk of increased market volatility during the policy transition period. The passage of the "Great Beauty Act" in July means that US fiscal expectations have shifted from contraction to expansion, with uncertainty only in the impact of the spending implementation rhythm on US Treasury supply. The Fed's relatively dovish monetary policy statement in late August and the implementation of a large - bank leverage - increasing policy in late August (effective in October) have increased the demand for US Treasuries in a context of loose Fed liquidity [19]. - **Internal**: The macro - policy has shifted to a self - centered approach, waiting for the implementation of relevant fiscal and monetary policies in October. The second - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - August shows that the monetary policy remains loose, with the focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. However, the central bank has strengthened the policy requirement of "preventing capital idling" in the short term, which may cause short - term disturbances to the capital flow. Considering the external policy transition and the resulting increase in market uncertainty, market volatility may rise in September [19].
流动性日报-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 07:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - On September 3, 2025, the report presents the trading data of various market sectors including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - Figures 1 - 6 show the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate. The data sources are Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On September 3, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 1045.134 billion yuan, a 1.16% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1360.355 billion yuan, a 3.78% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 76.16%. Figures 7 - 12 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the stock index plate [1][4][13] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On September 3, 2025, the treasury bond plate had a trading volume of 426.963 billion yuan, a 30.96% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 699.576 billion yuan, a 2.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 62.84%. Figures 13 - 18 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][4][18] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On September 3, 2025, the base metal plate had a trading volume of 334.779 billion yuan, a 7.60% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 509.859 billion yuan, a 1.59% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 72.00%. The precious metal plate had a trading volume of 504.543 billion yuan, a 25.87% increase; the holding amount was 484.377 billion yuan, a 2.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 119.58%. Figures 19 - 24 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the metal plate [1][4][29] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On September 3, 2025, the energy and chemical plate had a trading volume of 410.311 billion yuan, a 9.88% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 435.298 billion yuan, a 0.52% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 72.82%. Figures 25 - 30 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each main variety in the energy and chemical plate [1][4][41] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On September 3, 2025, the agricultural products plate had a trading volume of 298.340 billion yuan, a 3.71% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 542.954 billion yuan, a 0.54% decrease; the trading - holding ratio was 50.40%. Figures 31 - 36 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each main variety in the agricultural products plate [1][4][50] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On September 3, 2025, the black building materials plate had a trading volume of 219.117 billion yuan, a 3.33% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 367.196 billion yuan, a 1.37% increase; the trading - holding ratio was 54.22%. Figures 37 - 42 show the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, change in settled funds, trend of settled funds, trading amount change rate, and the trend of the net holding ratio of the top 20 institutions of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][4][59]
股指期权日报-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 07:09
Report Title - The report is titled "Stock Index Options Daily Report" and is dated September 4, 2025 [21][48] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The report presents the trading data of various stock index options on September 3, 2025, including trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), along with their respective changes compared to the previous period Summary by Directory 1. Option Trading Volume - On September 3, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1.377 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 1.5928 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options was 2.4388 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.2384 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 2.6177 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options was 0.0684 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 stock index options was 0.1909 million contracts; and the total trading volume of China Securities 1000 options was 0.3786 million contracts [1] 2. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.61, with a month-on-month change of +0.14; the position PCR was reported at 0.88, with a month-on-month change of -0.06. Similar data for other options are also provided, including Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options, Shenzhen 100 ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 stock index options, and China Securities 1000 stock index options [2][32] 3. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 21.04%, with a month-on-month change of -1.63%. Similar data for other options are also provided, including Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options, Shenzhen 100 ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 stock index options, and China Securities 1000 stock index options [3][46]
国债期货日报:股债跷跷板下,国债期货全线收涨-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 07:04
Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Under the stock - bond seesaw, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The bullish stock market has led to a callback in risk appetite, which is beneficial to the bond market. At the same time, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a - 0.20% month - on - month decrease and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly economic indicators**: The social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.24%. M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.02%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [9]. - **Daily economic indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.16, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 and a decline rate of 0.16%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1442, with a month - on - month increase of 0.004 and a growth rate of 0.06%. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.43, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.14%. DR007 was 1.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.28%. R007 was 1.67, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.26 and a decline rate of 13.67%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M was 1.55, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.03%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.03% [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are used to show the situation of the Treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts, the price change rate of each variety, the precipitation of funds, the proportion of positions held, the net position ratio of the top 20, the long - short position ratio of the top 20, the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [11][12][15]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The charts show the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds [25]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts show the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread [28][33][34]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [36][39][47]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [49][54]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [63][66][69]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate falls, the price of Treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].
尿素日报:尿素小幅累库,行情短期僵持-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 07:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Short - term UR01 - 05 positive spread can trade on fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 reverse spread on high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea prices are in a short - term stalemate with slight inventory build - up. Recent price cuts by manufacturers led to improved short - term transactions, but the sustainability is weak. The market is waiting for the results of Indian tenders. Some regions' agricultural autumn fertilizer demand is starting, while industrial demand is weak due to factors like the military parade. Urea production is at a high level but may decline slightly this week due to increased maintenance. In the long - term, supply and demand are still relatively loose with new capacity coming online. Coal - based urea profits are acceptable, and the cost support is average. The export window in September is driving continuous exports and accelerating port inventory accumulation [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - Data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread are presented [6][7][8][17][18] 3.2 Urea Production - Information on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume is provided [20][25] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Details about production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization are given [23][28][31][36] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - Data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, and the differences between them, as well as urea export profit and disk export profit are shown [33][35][39][41][44] 3.5 Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Information on compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise pre - received order days is provided [50][51][52] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume are presented [55][58][61]
农产品日报:苹果产区降雨增多,红枣供需弱平衡-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 07:04
农产品日报 | 2025-09-04 苹果产区降雨增多,红枣供需弱平衡 苹果观点 产区天气情况、货源质量问题、销区走货情况 红枣观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘苹果2510合约8332元/吨,较前一日变动-57元/吨,幅度-0.68%。现货方面,山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.75元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP10-832,较前一日变动+57;陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤,较前一日变动+0.00元/斤,现货基差AP10+1268,较前一日变动+57。 近期市场资讯,陕西早熟富士大面积上色中,渭南、洛川早熟富士少量上市交易,价格高于去年同期,目前红货 好货有限,客商采购积极性尚可。山东产区奶油红将军陆续交易,整体量不大,客商采购积极性尚可。苹果库存 富士行情维持稳淡,山东产区客商拿货积极性一般,成交氛围不旺,部分果农及持货商开始让价出售。陕西白水 产区早熟富士70#起步好货3.8-4.3元/斤,一般货源价格3-4元/斤,价格不等,以质论价为主。 山东栖霞产区果农三 级2.0-2.5元/斤,果农80#以上统货2.3-3.0元/斤,80#一二级条纹3.3 ...
农产品日报:出栏积极性提升,猪价震荡运行-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 07:04
农产品日报 | 2025-09-04 出栏积极性提升,猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2511合约13550元/吨,较前交易日变动-45.00元/吨,幅度-0.33%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.96元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤,现货基差 LH11+410,较前交易日变动-15;江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.14元/公斤,较前交易日变动-0.17元/公斤,现货基差LH11+590,较前交易日变动-125;四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.77元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤,现货基差LH11+220,较前交易日变动+45。 据农业农村部监测,9月3日"农产品批发价格200指数"为117.58,比昨天上升0.17个点,"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为118.32,比昨天上升0.19个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.04元/公斤,比昨天上升1.2%;牛肉65.33 元/公斤,比昨天上升0.2%;羊肉61.03元/公斤,比昨天上升0.4%;鸡蛋7.74元/公斤,比昨天上升2.0%;白条鸡17.28 元/公斤,比昨天下降0.9%。 市场分析 ...
化工日报:市场氛围不佳,EG延续弱势-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 07:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. There is a loose balance in the balance sheet from August to September, with little supply - demand contradiction. Pay attention to cost changes under low inventory [3] Core View - The market atmosphere is poor, and EG continues to be weak. The futures and spot prices of EG have declined, production profits have decreased, and inventory has decreased. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to be stable at a high level in the short term, with a possible decline in synthetic gas load in September. Overseas supply has suffered many losses, and the import volume from September to October may be revised down. The demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. The balance sheet from August to September is in a loose balance, with little supply - demand contradiction [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4,331 yuan/ton (a change of - 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.18%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,434 yuan/ton (a change of - 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.43%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 89 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 3 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 10 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 51 yuan/ton). The domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable at a high level in the short term, and the synthetic gas load may decline in September [1][2] International Spread - No relevant data provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The current demand shows signs of recovery, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Pay attention to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 449,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 51,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 413,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 85,000 tons). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 50,000 tons, and the arrival volume was low. The port inventory decreased last week. The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 98,000 tons, and the arrival volume is neutral [1]
甲醇日报:港口延续快速累库,内地工厂库存回建-20250904
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 07:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The port inventory continued to rise rapidly on Wednesday, especially in the Jiangsu region, a trading hub. The overseas methanol production is still at a high level, and the arrival pressure in China in September remains high, awaiting the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing in early September. The pattern of weak ports and strong inland areas persists, and the window for ports to flow back to southern Shandong has opened. The downside space depends on the inland performance. In the inland areas, the centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol has passed, the production of coal - based methanol has further increased, the inland factory inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the inland supply - demand may weaken marginally. Among traditional downstream industries, the pending orders have declined, the production of MTBE and acetic acid has decreased, and the formaldehyde production is still at a low level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, basis of spot - main futures in different regions, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][21] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][27] 3.3 Methanol Production and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P production rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated) are presented. The port inventory increased rapidly, with the total port inventory at 1,427,655 tons (+127,905 tons), and the inland factory inventory also increased, with the inland factory inventory at 341,083 tons (+7,690 tons) [2][22] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - It shows price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 43 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton) [22][39] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production profits of traditional downstream industries, including the production profit of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [58][60] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging - Inter - period: Wait and see - Cross - variety: Wait and see [3]
马棕累库预期较强,油脂持续承压
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 07:03
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market anticipates a further build - up of Malaysian palm oil inventories, possibly reaching a multi - year high. With sufficient rapeseed and soybean yields, the overall supply side of the oil market faces significant pressure, causing the oil market to remain under continuous pressure [3] Group 3: Summary of Specific Content Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,368.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 54 yuan (- 0.57%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,366.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 10.00 yuan (+ 0.12%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,727.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 39.00 yuan (- 0.40%) [1] Spot Prices - In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,300.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 80.00 yuan (- 0.85%), and the spot basis was P01 + - 68.00, with a环比 change of - 26.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of + 0.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.00%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 114.00, with a环比 change of - 10.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,880.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 20.00 yuan (- 0.20%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 153.00, with a环比 change of + 19.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 is expected to be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July, reaching the highest level since December 2023; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July, rising to the highest level since August last year; exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July, reaching a nine - month high [2] - Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 526 dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 525 dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 1,161 dollars/ton; Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) C&F price increased by 6 dollars/ton to 1,163 dollars/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) remained at 1,080 dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) remained at 1,060 dollars/ton [2] - US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 3 dollars/ton to 470 dollars/ton; US West soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 9 dollars/ton to 442 dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) C&F price decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 486 dollars/ton [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (October shipment) increased by 5 cents/bu to 240 cents/bu; US West Coast (October shipment) decreased by 10 cents/bu to 165 cents/bu; Brazilian ports (October shipment) increased by 10 cents/bu to 285 cents/bu [2]