新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 库存方面：2025-12-15，SMM铅锭库存总量为2.2万吨，较上周同期变化0.14万吨。截止12月15日，LME铅库存为 252475吨，较上一交易日变化17725吨。 策略 现货散单成交寡淡 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-15，LME铅现货升水为-49.62美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16975 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50 元/吨至17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-25元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至9900元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元/ 吨。 期货方面：2025-12-15，沪铅主力合约开于17130元/吨，收于17010元/吨，较前一交易日变化-11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Policy expectations in China are swinging. After important meetings at the end of the year, attention should be paid to the government work report around February next year and the risk of policy expectation swings. The Fed has restarted a "restrictive" stance, and there are risks in the market due to various factors. In the commodity market, focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals [1][2][3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's policies continue to emphasize active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. In November, China's foreign trade grew, manufacturing PMI improved, and there were changes in industrial and consumer data. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and plans to buy short - term bonds. The ADP employment in the US decreased in November [1][2] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals during the inflation expectation game. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains. In the energy sector, the global oil supply surplus expectation was lowered, and there are additional production cut plans. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worth noting. In the agricultural sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan and weather expectations. There are opportunities for buying precious metals at low prices [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4]

宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅增 2%，连续三个月放缓，主 要受上半年财政前置发力后劲不足以及基建类支出走弱影响，社 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-16 氯碱随宏观情绪反弹，供需边际改善有限 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4315元/吨（+95）；华东基差15元/吨（-45）;华南基差65元/吨（-15）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4330元/吨（+50）；华南电石法报价4380元/吨（+80）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格780元/吨（-20）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润16元/吨（+16）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-1102元/吨（-83）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-520元/吨（-48）；PVC出口利润10.5美元/吨（+4.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存34.4万吨（+1.8）；PVC社会库存51.7万吨（-1.2）；PVC电石法开工率79.13%（-2.96%）； PVC乙烯法开工率76.67%（+4.75%）；PVC开工率78.39%（-0.62%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量64.9万吨（-5.0）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2163元/吨（+53）；山东32%液碱基差56元/吨（-53）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价710元/吨（+0）；山东5 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-16 供应持续增量，市场震荡运行 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5738元/吨（+63），丙烯华东现货价5975元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6080元/吨（-10）， 丙烯华东基差237元/吨（-63），丙烯华北基差131元/吨（+2）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR201美元/吨（+6），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR40美元/吨（+13），进口利润-353元/吨（+3），厂内库存45960吨（-1930）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-0.89%），生产利润-280元/吨（+50）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+0%），生产利润82 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率69%（-6%），生产利润218元/吨（-144）；辛醇开工率77%（+1%），生产利润550元/吨 （-143）；丙烯酸开工率80%（+2%），生产利润358元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-758元/吨（+2）； 酚酮开工率80%（-3%），生产利润-952元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端山东滨华PDH装置重启提负，PDH亏损检修现象仍不明 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading liquidity data of various market sectors on December 15, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Plate Liquidity - The report provides multiple figures related to plate liquidity, such as the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [5][8] 2. Stock Index Plate - On December 15, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 681.895 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.66% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1337.425 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.79% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 50.87% [1] - Multiple figures show the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [5][9] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 476.194 billion yuan, an increase of 2.47% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 738.393 billion yuan, an increase of 1.83% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 65.78% [1] - Figures illustrate the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate [5][19] 4. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the basic metal plate was 834.138 billion yuan, an increase of 19.67% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 688.333 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.00% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 116.84% - The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 1433.070 billion yuan, an increase of 48.21% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 514.680 billion yuan, an increase of 0.63% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 401.86% [1] - Figures display the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [5][31] 5. Energy and Chemical Industry Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical industry plate was 491.436 billion yuan, an increase of 4.37% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 446.292 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 101.34% [1] - Figures show the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical industry plate [5][39] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 321.262 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.92% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 595.920 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 48.58% [1] - Figures present the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate [5][43] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 296.737 billion yuan, an increase of 30.12% from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 322.386 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.30% from the previous trading day; the trading - holding ratio was 86.17% [2] - Figures illustrate the price change, trading - holding ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [5][53]

油料日报 | 2025-12-16 豆一终端补库缓慢，花生需求疲软油厂支撑有限 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4130.00元/吨，较前日变化-8.00元/吨，幅度-0.19%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A01+70，较前日变化+48，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货小幅下跌，因预计未来几周阿根廷干旱地区将迎来降雨， 市场资讯汇总：当前东北地区大豆市场农户手中余粮有限，普遍存有惜售盼涨心理，市场供应趋紧，带动部分大 型企业收购价走强。同时，中储粮的收购政策也对价格形成底部支撑，推动近期行情连续走强，也支撑商品豆塔 粮价格。后续大豆价格走势，仍需重点关注下游需求的变化情况。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔 粮装车报价2.08元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤， 较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐 齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等 蛋 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-16 青岛港口天然橡胶库存继续增加 据隆众资讯了解，进入12月份全钢胎交投表现平淡，受季节性淡季影响，市场需求进一步转弱，市场货源相对充 足情况下，渠道以及终端门店消化现有库存为主，进货积极性一般，市场成交价格稳中趋弱，为增加销量及回收 资金，部分商家根据自身库存情况有促销行为。 2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新 的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达 58,664万条，同比增长4%。1-10月汽车轮胎出口量为685万吨，同比增长3.3%；出口金额为1158亿元，同比增长2.1%。 2025年10月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量51.08万吨，环比减 少14.27%，同比减少0.9%，2025年1-10月累计进口数量522.81万吨，累计同比增加17.27%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前三个季度，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为199.3万吨，同比降8%。其 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, the peak of short - term arrivals in China has passed, and the inventory accumulation rate at ports has slowed down, but the absolute inventory level remains high. Overseas gasoline cracking spreads are weak, but the spread between the US and South Korea has been repaired. Domestic production has decreased due to low profits, and downstream提货 is weak with continued low off - season operations [4]. - For styrene, port inventories have continued to decline, and the industry maintains low - level operations. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Satellite Petrochemical. The port de - stocking is also due to good downstream提货, but downstream operations are weak in the off - season, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory - holding willingness [4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 143 yuan/ton (- 28), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 160 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [2]. - The styrene main contract basis is 173 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan/ton) [2]. II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 114 dollars/ton (+ 3 dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 107 dollars/ton (+ 1 dollar/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 196.9 dollars/ton (+ 5.0 dollars/ton) [2]. - Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 99 yuan/ton (+ 14 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [2]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+ 0.00 million tons), and the operating rate has decreased [2][4]. - Styrene East China port inventory is 134,700 tons (- 12,100 tons), East China commercial inventory is 82,300 tons (- 5,500 tons), and the operating rate is 68.3% (- 0.6%) [2]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 157 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), operating rate is 53.77% (- 2.59%) [3]. - PS production profit is - 43 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), operating rate is 58.30% (- 0.70%) [3]. - ABS production profit is - 898 yuan/ton (- 48 yuan/ton), operating rate is 70.53% (+ 2.23%) [3]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 330 yuan/ton (+ 0), operating rate is 74.57% (- 4.58%) [2]. - Phenol - acetone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+ 0), operating rate is 79.50% (- 2.50%) [2]. - Aniline production profit is 611 yuan/ton (- 237), operating rate is 75.94% (- 1.29%) [2]. - Adipic acid production profit is - 1075 yuan/ton (+ 0), operating rate is 59.20% (- 0.80%) [2].

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-16 伊朗装船量仍等待进一步下降 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润563元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1968元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差494元/吨（-5），内蒙南线1940元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2240元/吨（+13），鲁 南基差366元/吨（+6）；河南2115元/吨（+5），河南基差241元/吨（-2）；河北2135元/吨（+0），河北基差321元/吨 （-7）。隆众内地工厂库存352830吨（-8490），西北工厂库存199000吨（-6000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单207471吨 （-32244），西北工厂待发订单101600吨（-26900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2105元/吨（+13），太仓基差31元/吨（+6），CFR中国245美元/吨（-1），华东进口价差-34元/ 吨（-4），常州甲醇2335元/吨；广东甲醇2075元/吨（+10），广东基差1元/吨（+3）。隆众港口总库存1234370吨（-115060）， 江苏港口库存635100吨（-68200），浙江港口库存19 ...