Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 19 cents to $61.31 per barrel, a decline of 0.31%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell 32 cents to $65.62 per barrel, a decline of 0.49%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.75% at 465 yuan per barrel [1] - Iraq's oil minister stated that Iraq is negotiating its OPEC quota, aiming to re - evaluate within its available production capacity of 5.5 million barrels per day, while currently adhering to the OPEC quota of 4.4 million barrels per day [1][4] - A US senior diplomat refuted Hungary's argument about relying on Russian oil. The US is pressuring Hungary to find alternative suppliers. Hungary is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, and the US and EU have recently imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies [1] - Mexico's state - owned oil company needs to make up for a loss of 3000 barrels of crude oil per month to maintain stable production [1] Investment Logic - After Western sanctions on Russia, future focus is on the implementation of secondary sanctions and whether buyers are willing to bear the risk of sanctions. Russia may switch trading entities to avoid sanctions. Geopolitical factors between countries are crucial, and there may be trade links for oil similar to those of Arctic 2 LNG [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short - term due to sanctions and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium - term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, Sino - US negotiations achieve breakthrough results, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Group 2: Core Views - For the粕类 market, the current domestic fundamentals have little change, with sufficient arrivals, high soybean and bean meal inventories, and overall ample supply. Key factors to watch are the China - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] - In the corn market, on the supply side, farmers' selling enthusiasm was initially low due to the decline in northern port corn prices but has slightly recovered this week in the Northeast. In North China, the risk of bad grain has decreased, and the pace of wet grain sales has slowed. On the demand side, various inventories are low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2932 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.43%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 2900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Latest News**: As of October 24, the soybean planting rate in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season reached 60.05%, up 16.48 percentage points from last week. As of October 19, the weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 12.4 tons, and the cumulative export volume in the 2025/26 season was 107.9 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.3% [2] Corn and Corn Starch - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.98%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.66%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - **Latest News**: As of October 23, Ukraine had harvested 424 hectares of sunflower seeds (82% of the planned area), with a yield of 783.8 tons; 152 hectares of soybeans, with a yield of 350.2 tons; and 127 hectares of rapeseed, with a yield of 331 tons [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic supply of bean meal is relatively loose, and future market trends depend on China - US negotiations and the sowing of new - season Brazilian soybeans [3] Corn and Corn Starch - On the supply side, farmers' selling enthusiasm in the Northeast has slightly recovered, and the pace of wet grain sales in North China has slowed. On the demand side, inventory levels are low, but the willingness to stock up is weak [5][6] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Group 6: Figures - The report includes 44 figures related to the prices, production, consumption, inventory, and basis of bean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and corn starch, with data sources from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-28 海外升水虽降但依旧高位 重要数据 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为187.37美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化20元/吨至22210元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-55元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日30元/吨至22220元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-90元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22210元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-55元/吨。 期货方面：2025-10-27沪锌主力合约开于22250元/吨，收于22365元/吨，较前一交易日75元/吨，全天交易日成交 120077手，全天交易日持仓121184手，日内价格最高点达到22405元/吨，最低点达到22200元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-10-27，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.35万吨，较上期变化0.14万吨。截止2025-10-27，LME 锌库存为37050吨，较上一交易日变化-550吨。 市场分析 目前冶炼厂对矿端采购需求旺盛，矿端TC有望进一步下滑，进口矿TC依旧跟随顶部开始回落。当前冶炼综合尚有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The 10 - month contract has completed delivery, and attention should be paid to Maersk's WEEK46 quotation. The 12 - month contract trading focuses on rhythm, with shipowners expected to adjust supply to keep freight rates high. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectation. The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to be oscillatingly strong, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [1][5][6][8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 27, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1571.60, EC2604 contract is 1178.80, EC2606 contract is 1387.10, EC2608 contract is 1480.30, EC2510 contract is 1130.90, and EC2512 contract is 1775.00. The total position of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 61,327.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 37,591.00 lots. The 10 - month contract delivery settlement price is 1161.63 points [4][6] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping alliances are provided. For example, Gemini Cooperation: Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK45 quote is 1420/2370; HPL - SPOT's first - half of November price is 1335/2135, and the second - half of November shipping schedule quote is 1735/2835. The actual landing prices in the first half of November have been gradually revised down [1] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December, the average weekly capacity shows different trends. In November, there are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs (with expected conversion to blank sailings). In December, there are 5 TBNs. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU [3][7] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical factors: On October 27, local time, the Israeli military chief stated that the war against Hamas would not end until all Israeli hostages were returned. China's counter - measure against the US USTR port surcharge has relatively little impact on the European line [2][4] 5. Demand and European Economy - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content

Group 1: Market Analysis of Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The glass futures market showed narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream sentiment was cautious, with mainly rigid - demand purchases. The supply - demand contradiction was significant, inventory pressure increased, and the market share of glass factories was squeezed by futures - cash traders. With the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the possibility of some production lines resuming, the glass price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market also had narrow - range fluctuations. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply - demand contradiction persisted, with an expected increase in supply, resilient rigid demand, and weakened speculative demand. De - stocking pressure would last throughout the year. Focus on supply changes and downstream demand [1]. Group 2: Strategies for Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The strategy is to expect a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. - Soda Ash: The strategy is to expect a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese: The silicomanganese futures market rose following the overall black - series market. There was strong wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market at the beginning of the week, with few spot quotations. Although losses of silicomanganese enterprises increased, production remained high, and de - stocking pressure was large. The price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. Attention should be paid to cost support and regional policies. The 6517 silicomanganese price in the northern market was 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures had a small increase after consolidation. The spot market sentiment was flat, with most cautious operations. Ferrosilicon enterprises had high production and high inventory, and demand was expected to weaken. Despite continuous losses, production was not effectively curbed, and the weak fundamental situation was difficult to reverse. The short - term price is expected to follow the sector. Monitor changes in coal and electricity prices at the cost end and regional policies. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [3]. Group 4: Strategies for Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - Silicomanganese: The strategy is to expect a fluctuating trend [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The strategy is to expect a fluctuating trend [4]. Group 5: Graphs and Their Information - The report includes multiple graphs showing various aspects such as the spot and futures prices, cost, profit, and basis of steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, soda ash, glass, power coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, despite the short - term upward movement due to macro - factors, the overall situation of high inventory and supply surplus remains unchanged, and nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [1][3]. - For the stainless steel variety, considering weak downstream demand, increasing inventory, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,150 yuan/ton and closed at 122,400 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 129,533 (- 15,670) lots, and the open interest was 108,989 (- 12,453) lots. The nickel price was driven by macro - sentiment, with positive impacts from the Sino - US talks and the weakening of the US dollar index [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was stable, with most players adopting a wait - and - see attitude and prices remaining stable. In the domestic market, there was still a price difference between supply and demand sides. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area was entering the rainy season, and the northern mines were mostly starting tender sales. Some downstream iron plants wanted to replenish stocks but had a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in October increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the mainstream premium remained at +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories were actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,300 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were slightly adjusted. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 29,780 (2970) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,238 (384) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,820 yuan/ton and closed at 12,815 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 158,384 (+20,953) lots, and the open interest was 115,124 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the Shanghai nickel price, the stainless steel contract showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, with increased trading volume indicating a marginal increase in market participation. Technically, it showed oscillating repair characteristics, but there was pressure near 12,900 yuan due to the previous intensive trading area [3]. - **Spot**: The impact of macro - sentiment on the spot market was limited. Downstream buyers maintained a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, and actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, with limited price increases. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 255 and 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for stainless steel is a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port basis of methanol is still weak, with high port inventory pressure. The attitude of methanol warehousing enterprises and downstream towards Iranian ships may be affected by the sanctions on Russian oil by Europe and the United States. There are more short - term temporary overhauls in Iran, but the winter overhaul plan has not been announced. Coal - based methanol production in the inland has increased in November, and inland inventory has started to build up from a low level. The demand from inland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year [2][3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc., and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). All data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][11][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][33] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures display the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations). Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [35][36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures illustrate price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [40][49][51] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. Data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [50][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot trading weakened after the price increase this week following the simultaneous increase in futures and spot last week. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for a driving force [2]. - In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. As the weather improves, agricultural demand for urea increases, and the inventory accumulation speed slows down [2]. - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. The export window period is from September to October. The export volume in September was 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 billion tons. Pay attention to subsequent export dynamics [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][8] 2. Urea Output - Comprises charts of urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume [17][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves charts of production cost, spot production profit, panel production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][27] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Contains charts of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, and their price differences, as well as urea export profit and panel export profit [29][31][35] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Consists of charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [47][48][49] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes charts of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [52][53][57]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Group 2: Core View - The spot market of LPG is weak and has limited market drivers. Although the LPG market has been somewhat boosted by the sharp rebound in crude oil prices, the elasticity is limited and the spot reaction is relatively flat. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, with continuous growth in overseas supply, high exports from the Middle East and North America, and ample imported resources, which suppress the domestic market. However, the shrinking price difference between LPG and naphtha will stimulate the switching of raw materials from naphtha to LPG in cracking units. There are many short - term macro uncertainties, and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations is awaited [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - On October 27, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4200 - 4270 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3780 - 4060 yuan/ton; North China market 4150 - 4350 yuan/ton; East China market 4150 - 4260 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4520 - 4760 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4100 - 4180 yuan/ton; South China market 4250 - 4480 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 540 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 540 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4214 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4214 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 534 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 534 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4167 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4167 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton [1] - Recently, domestic civil gas prices have been stable with a slight decline, and downstream customers purchase as needed [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The improvement in lead consumption has increased the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing lead ingots, and China's social lead inventory has dropped to a more than one - year low. Favorable factors for the terminal demand of the non - ferrous sector revealed in important domestic meetings have led to a significant increase in lead prices this week. However, due to the occasional interference of trade disputes and the suppression of demand caused by the rising lead prices, the possibility of a continuous and substantial increase in lead prices in the future is relatively low [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$36.64 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,025 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white - shell and black - shell remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On October 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,640 yuan/ton, closed at 17,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 81,722 lots, an increase of 2,208 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 84,395 lots, an increase of 549 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,640 yuan/ton and a low of 17,395 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,520 yuan/ton and closed at 17,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of October 27, the LME lead inventory was 232,375 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The operation strategy this week is to consider a buy - on - dips hedging approach, with the recommended buying range between 17,250 yuan/ton and 17,300 yuan/ton [3]