1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market trading volume declined, and the communication sector closed in the red. The Shanghai Composite Index corrected, with the A-share market showing a mixed trend. The futures index basis also declined. It is expected that the stock index will show a volatile adjustment trend in September, and investors can use stock index futures for risk hedging [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Situation**: The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting to discuss issues related to the bond market. The A-share market had a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.16% to 3813.56 points, the ChiNext Index up 0.95%, and the trading volume of the two markets dropping to 2.4 trillion yuan. The Fed's decision to cut interest rates affected the US stock market, with the Nasdaq up 1.02% [1][2] - **Overseas Situation**: US job data was weak, with the number of job openings in July dropping to a 10 - month low. Fed Governor Waller suggested starting interest rate cuts this month, and the three major US stock indexes closed with mixed results [1][2] Strategy - Some popular sectors had a volume - adjusted decline and need time to recover. It is expected that the stock index will be volatile in September, and investors can use stock index futures for risk hedging [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts on the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][11][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index all declined, while the ChiNext Index and Shanghai 50 Index rose [13] - **Other Indicators**: Charts show the trading volume of the two markets and the margin trading balance [14] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of IF, IH, and IM increased, while the open interest of stock index futures decreased [15] - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures declined, with relatively large declines in IF and IH [41] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures showed various changes [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Report's Core View - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is affected by the continuous decline in TC prices and an increase in smelter maintenance. On the demand side, dealers' inventory reduction is slow, and their procurement willingness is low, with some enterprises accumulating finished - product inventory. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in September and the Middle East tariff policy, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the volatility range likely between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 19, 2024, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries changed by -50 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 19, 2024, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,795 yuan/ton, closed at 16,730 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,827 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 43,709 lots, a decrease of 3,629 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,810 yuan/ton and a low of 16,660 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,865 yuan/ton and closed at 16,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders quoted at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 140 - 120 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Hunan region, most lead smelters quoted at a discount of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and some holders quoted at a discount of 160 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract. In the Yunnan region, holders quoted at a discount of over 200 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. Although the lead futures price strengthened slightly, downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak [2] Inventory - On December 19, 2024, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 3, the LME lead inventory was 234,700 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the short - term supply is tight, and the price may be slightly stronger before the large - scale listing of new flowers. In the medium - term, due to the strong expectation of a bumper harvest, the price may face pressure [3] - For sugar, the short - term supply pressure is large, but the low inventory of domestic sugar limits the continuous decline space [5] - For pulp, the current fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,990 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton (-0.39%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,373 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,465 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [1] - India: There was heavy rainfall in cotton - growing areas, and the CCI auctioned about 170,000 tons of cotton on the 2nd, with the S - 6 auction reserve price stable at 54,500 rupees/candy [1] Market Analysis - International: India extended the tariff - exemption period, and the USDA in August significantly lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but the slow export sales limit the upside [2] - Domestic: The inventory reduction speed is fast, and the commercial inventory is at a low level. The late - issued and limited sliding - duty quotas did not solve the tight supply problem. The new cotton is growing well, and there is a possibility of抢购 at the beginning, but the hedging pressure during the centralized listing will limit the price [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term price may be slightly stronger, and there may be a decline in the medium - term if the peak season is disappointing [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,562 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.66%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,900 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton [3] - India: The government allowed sugar mills and distilleries to use various raw materials to produce ethanol without restrictions in the 2025/26 season [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's Conab and other institutions lowered the sugar production forecast, and Pakistan's purchase boosted the price. However, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the northern hemisphere's production increase expectation suppresses the price [4] - Zheng sugar: The high import profit and large import volume in July, along with the impact of processed sugar in August - September, put pressure on the price [5] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term supply pressure is large, but the low domestic sugar inventory limits the decline space. Pay attention to syrup policy changes [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,050 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,100 yuan/ton [5] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices rising slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume is expected to decline. However, the slow port inventory reduction and high inventory level maintain the supply pressure [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also sluggish during the off - season, with high finished - product inventory and cautious procurement by paper mills [7] Strategy - Neutral. The current fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategies for both soybeans and peanuts are rated as neutral [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The supply of soybeans is tightening, and high - quality soybeans are still in demand. With the start of the school term, the demand in the soybean market in the inner - pass regions is gradually picking up, but the new soybean listing eases the supply tension, and lower - quality soybeans face pressure. The peanut market has limited demand, with weak follow - up on the demand side despite stable oil - processing peanut markets [2][3] Summary by Related Contents Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3,961.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 9.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.23%. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 259, a change of + 9 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14% [1] - Market prices in the Northeast soybean market are stable. Grain trading enterprises' inventories are almost exhausted, and market transactions are light. Some enterprises bid for state - reserve old grains, and most are waiting for new soybean price guidance. New grains are expected to be on the market around September 20 in some areas [1] - The prices of national standard first - class protein soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained unchanged compared to the previous day [1] - The rebound momentum of soybean futures is limited. Although the old soybean market in the outer - pass regions is weak, the overall market supply is tightening, and high - quality soybeans are still concerned. The demand in the inner - pass regions is warming up, and market transactions are becoming more active. The increasing listing of new soybeans eases the supply tension, and lower - quality soybeans face pressure [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 7,796.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 6.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.08%. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8,400.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 0.47%. The spot basis was PK10 + 304.00, a change of - 6.00 from the previous period, a decrease of 1.94% [3] - The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national peanut market is 4.22 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin. New peanuts are on the market in increasing quantities. Due to the previous price increase, downstream demand is poor, and processors and traders are less enthusiastic about purchasing and are bargaining [3] - The contract prices of peanut oil mills in Shandong and Henan are basically stable, but the arrival volume is limited. The peanut futures fluctuated within a range. In the Henan production area, the weather improved, and the supply volume increased. The peanut harvest of plastic - film peanuts in Henan is basically completed, but downstream purchasing willingness has weakened, and large - scale food factories lack large - scale purchase orders. Although the pressing profit of oil mills is good, and oil mills and traders have started sporadic purchases, the overall demand in the peanut market is weak [3][4] Strategy - The investment strategy for peanuts is neutral [5] Risk - The risk for peanuts is the weakening of demand [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the upcoming downstream traditional peak season [8] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,885 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the NR main contract was at 12,715 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,885 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), etc. [1] Market Information - Global natural rubber: In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption was expected to drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] - China's heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume was about 84,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, the import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [3] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 885 yuan/ton (-15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (-5), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.29 baht/kg (+0.31), the price of Thai glue was 55.60 baht/kg (+0), and the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 baht/kg (+0.10) [5] -开工率：The full - steel tire operating rate was 64.89% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.97% (-0.90%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (-5,911 tons), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (-3,908 tons), etc. [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 135 yuan/ton (-65), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85% (+6.70%) [7] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 7,260 tons (+640 tons), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,650 tons (-450 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, and attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the downstream traditional peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may slightly improve, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The LPG market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with limited upside potential [2] Core View of the Report - The LPG market has shown a volatile and relatively strong trend recently. After the main contract switched to PG2510, the support on the futures market has increased. The rising swap prices in the overseas market have boosted the arrival prices, which is positive for the domestic market. However, the impact of the rising import costs on downstream chemical demand should be noted. The spot market is generally stable, with balanced production and sales and acceptable downstream inventory pressure. Currently, the market has support at the bottom but limited upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in overseas supply and downstream demand [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 3, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4550 - 4610; Northeast market, 3910 - 4260; North China market, 4000 - 4650; East China market, 4450 - 4550; Yangtze River market, 4760 - 4950; Northwest market, 4550 - 4600; South China market, 4408 - 4630 [1] - In the first half of October 2025, the arrival prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 596 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton, and butane at 572 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4666 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton, and butane was 4478 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of October 2025, the arrival prices of frozen LPG in South China were propane at 589 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton, and butane at 565 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4611 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton, and butane was 4423 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and bullish. Consider the opportunity to go long on the main PG contract on dips, but the expected upside is limited. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [2]

1. Market News and Key Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract was 6,415 yuan/ton (+10), the spot price in East China was 6,575 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China was 6,630 yuan/ton (-5). The basis in East China was 160 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis in North China was 215 yuan/ton (-15). The propylene operating rate was 75% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha was 190 US dollars/ton (-4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 89 US dollars/ton (-10), the import profit was -159 yuan/ton (+25), and the in-plant inventory was 39,110 tons (-1,210) [1]. - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder was 41% (+1.22%), and the production profit was -260 yuan/ton (+5); the operating rate of propylene oxide was 73% (-1%), and the production profit was -120 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of n-butanol was 87% (-2%), and the production profit was -123 yuan/ton (+3); the operating rate of octanol was 94% (+2%), and the production profit was 154 yuan/ton (-47); the operating rate of acrylic acid was 69% (-1%), and the production profit was 157 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile was 74% (+1%), and the production profit was -682 yuan/ton (+30); the operating rate of phenol-ketone was 76% (-2%), and the production profit was -539 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 2. Market Analysis Supply side - Regarding the main PDH units, Hebei Haiwei's 500,000-ton unit was under maintenance, Wanhua Penglai had a restart expectation recently, Shandong Zhenhua's PDH restart was postponed, and Qingdao Jinneng's maintenance continued. The PDH operating rate decreased month-on-month, and the external supply of propylene tightened, which supported the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the continuous maintenance of the units [2]. Demand side - The operating rates of propylene downstream industries showed a mixed trend. The operating rate of PP increased month-on-month, mainly due to the support from the demand for PP downstream packaging films, injection molding, etc.; the operating rate of octanol continued to rise significantly, while the operating rates of n-butanol, PO, and phenol-ketone declined significantly. The downstream demand showed a slight recovery in the short term, but the overall profit of downstream products was average. The increase in the propylene spot price compressed the downstream profit, and the purchasing enthusiasm of some downstream industries weakened, suppressing the upward space of propylene. Attention should be paid to the stocking demand as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches [2]. Cost side - OPEC+ has a production increase expectation, and the crude oil price may decline; the Saudi CP propane price in September was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged month-on-month, and the landed price of the overseas propane swap also has a decline expectation [2]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; The expected tightening of PDH propylene supply supports the price, but the downstream profit is under pressure and may lack follow-up strength [2]. - Inter - period: None [2]. - Inter - variety: None [2]. 4. Report Catalog Summary I. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures like the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the capacity utilization rate of the main crude oil refineries [17][25][32]. III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39]. IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [42][44][47]. V. Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral, no specific ratings for other strategies [2] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation, no specific ratings for other strategies [5] Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon: With stable spot prices, significant supply increase, polysilicon self - disciplined production cuts in September on the consumer side, inventory may start to increase, and the industrial silicon market may experience weak and volatile operations influenced by overall commodity sentiment [2] - Polysilicon: Spot quotes have been raised, downstream product prices have also increased. After self - disciplined production cuts in September, there is a certain reduction in supply, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved to some extent. The market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, with large price fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [5] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Futures: On September 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8520 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, a change of (-25) yuan/ton or (-0.29)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 279742 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50348 lots, a change of 319 lots from the previous day [1] - Supply: Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 386,000 tons, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 19% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, cumulative production decreased by 20% year - on - year [1] - Consumption: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10500 - 10800 (-50) yuan/ton. Downstream procurement was cautious due to poor terminal demand, and monomer plants still adopted a strategy of offering discounts to secure orders [1] Group 4: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - Futures: On September 3, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 showed a strong and volatile trend, opening at 52000 yuan/ton and closing at 52160 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 149210 lots, and the trading volume was 362759 lots [3] - Spot: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 49.00 - 54.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was priced at 48.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - Inventory and Production: Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 213,000 tons, a - 14.29% month - on - month change; silicon wafer inventory was 18.05GW, a 3.68% month - on - month change. Weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 6.53% week - on - week change; silicon wafer production was 13.31GW, an 8.30% week - on - week change [3] - Industry Forecast: In September, the expected polysilicon production in China is less than 130,000 tons, mainly due to expected production cuts in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai. Some second - and third - tier production lines have resumed production, offsetting part of the reduction [4] - Downstream Products: Silicon wafers, battery cells, and component prices remained stable [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC considering further lifting production limits led to a sharp drop in oil prices. However, the factor limiting OPEC's production is Saudi Arabia's production willingness. Saudi Arabia can increase production to 10 million barrels per day but has not done so. Its contradictory approach has confused the market. Under the current supply - demand situation, the traditional policy of limiting production to maintain prices has reached a dead - end. If Saudi Arabia fails to address this issue, it will face a double - loss situation of both oil prices and market share [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $1.62, closing at $63.97 per barrel, a decline of 2.47%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery in London fell by $1.54, closing at $67.60 per barrel, a decline of 2.23%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.67%, at 484 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending September 3, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 14.506 million barrels, a decrease of 1.503 million barrels from 16.009 million barrels a week ago. Light distillate inventory decreased by 1.007 million barrels to 6.653 million barrels, a 13.15% month - on - month decrease; medium distillate inventory increased by 418,000 barrels to 2.304 million barrels, a 22.16% month - on - month increase; heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 914,000 barrels to 5.549 million barrels, a 14.14% month - on - month decrease [1] - OPEC+ will consider further increasing oil production at a meeting on Sunday. If so, OPEC+ will start to lift the second - layer production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. Eight OPEC+ member countries will hold an online meeting on Sunday to decide on October's production [1] - A White House official said that the Trump administration hopes Europe to stop buying Russian oil and join its proposed sanctions against countries that continue to purchase Russian oil. In 2024, European countries still bought about $25.5 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels [1] - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline last year has made Canada's oil producers' export capacity exceed actual demand, complicating the government's plan to build new oil pipelines. Since the expansion project was put into operation in May 2024, the pipeline capacity in Western Canada has exceeded the actual oil export volume, with an average daily surplus of about 400,000 barrels. In June this year, the surplus soared to a peak of 574,000 barrels per day [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the freight rate center continues to decline. In a normal year, the freight rate in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rate center in September has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the short - allocation of the 10 - month contract is relatively safe, but the key lies in the downward space. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4]. - The off - season and peak - season pattern of the 12 - month contract still exists, and the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. In a normal year, the Far East - Europe price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long - allocation can be gradually carried out later to trade the expected freight rate increase by shipping companies in November and December [5]. - The main contract fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different alliances and shipping companies have different price quotations for different routes and time periods. For example, the price of Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 37 is $1175/1970, and in week 38 is $1035/1730. HPL's SPOT price for the first half of September, the second half of September, and the first half of October is $1085/1735 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On September 2, local time, the Israeli military chief of staff said that the Israeli army had entered new areas in Gaza City and would increase its operations and strike intensity [2]. - **Empty Voyages**: MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced empty voyages during the Chinese Golden Week. The initial capacity involved in the four voyages of MSC is approximately 59,000 TEU, and the AE1 route of the Gemini Alliance in week 41 is also empty. The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in September is 290,700 TEU, and in October is 268,000 TEU [3]. - **Overtime Ships**: HPL has announced information on two overtime ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU [3]. 2. Futures Prices As of September 3, 2025, the total contract positions of the container shipping index for European routes are 82,665.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 40,534.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1534.00, EC2604 is 1255.10, EC2606 is 1441.10, EC2508 is 1609.50, EC2510 is 1323.00, and EC2512 is 1701.20 [6]. 3. Spot Prices On August 29, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1481.00/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $1923.00/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $2866.00/FEU. On September 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1773.60 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1013.90 points [6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 31, 2025, 180 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.452 million TEU. Among them, 58 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 873,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies.