FICC日报 | 2025-12-17 真空期权益市场缩量波动 市场分析 非农数据喜忧参半。宏观方面，中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神指出，扩大内需是明年 排在首位的重点任务，要从供需两侧发力提振消费，统筹提振消费和扩大投资。另外，明年要从供需两端发力稳 定房地产市场。供给端要严控增量、盘活存量，加快消化库存。需求端要采取更多针对性措施，充分释放居民刚 性和改善性需求。海外方面，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期 的5万人；失业率意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。此外，10月就业数据被大幅下修。 股指调整。现货市场，A股三大指数调整，沪指跌1.11%收于3824.81点，创业板指跌2.1%。行业方面，板块指数跌 多涨少，仅商贸零售、美容护理、社会服务行业收红，通信、有色金属、电力设备、传媒行业跌幅居前。当日沪 深两市成交额为1.7万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.62%报48114.26点，纳指涨0.23%报 23111.46点。 期指基差收敛。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货当月合约本周五交割，基差趋于收敛。成交 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 莫桑比克电解铝确定减产 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21630元/吨，较上一交易日变化-80元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-100元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-60元/吨；中原A00铝价21560元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-70元/吨至-170元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21520元/吨，较上一交易日变化-70元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-55元/吨至-210元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-16日沪铝主力合约开于21955元/吨，收于21845元/吨，较上一交易日变化-45元/吨，最 高价达21970元/吨，最低价达到21655元/吨。全天交易日成交241924手，全天交易日持仓288833手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化1.2万吨，仓单库存77188 吨，较上一交易日变化-625吨，LME铝库存519600吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-16SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2765元/吨，山东价格录得2690元/吨，河南价格录得 2790元/ ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 供需两旺，碳酸锂维持高位震荡 碳酸锂整体维持偏强震荡态势，虽盘中受短期压力回调，但长期上涨趋势的支撑因素仍在。目前，供应端的不确 定性是支撑价格偏强的关键因素之一，国内外供应干扰消息层出不穷。整体来看，短期大概率维持高位震荡，需 聚焦产能释放节奏与资金动向，警惕供需边际变化带来的波动加剧。 单边：短期观望为主 跨期：无 风险 市场分析 2025-12-16，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于101500元/吨，收于100600元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化1.27%。当日 成交量为597317手，持仓量为666027手，前一交易日持仓量662185手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5170元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15286手，较上个交易日变化26手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价94000-97700元/吨，较前一交易日变化700元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价92700-94000元/吨，较前一交易日变化700元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1260美元/吨，较前一日变化40美元/吨。据SMM 方面消息，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，采购意愿不强。 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-12-17 油价继续走低，盘面承压运行 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.36%，报2396元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.21%，报2921 元/吨。 原油价格延续震荡下跌，油市供过于求的预期并未逆转，近期俄乌和谈出现积极进展也在情绪上利空油价，原油 端对FU、LU单边价格压制将持续存在。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前市场多空因素交织，整体矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油市场结构处于调整阶段， 裂解价差大跌后支撑开始显现。一方面，下游炼厂加工需求将受到提振；另一方面，虽然谈判进程在展开，但乌 克兰对俄罗斯炼厂的无人机袭击尚未中断，对炼厂开工与成品油供应造成抑制。 低硫燃料油方面，市场整体驱动有限，由于装置变动局部供应存在回升空间。参考IIR消息，阿祖尔其中一套CDU （20.5万桶/天）及一套脱硫装置（5.5万桶/天）已经在12月13号恢复运行，另一套预计在12月25日重启。11月至今 科威特低硫燃料油发货量为零，但随着阿祖尔炼厂逐步恢复，低硫燃料油供应将重新增加。此外，尼日利亚Dangote 炼厂RFCC装置进入检修后低硫油产量或再度增加，不过12月截止目前 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. High - frequency shipping data showed that the export data in early December was also poor, possibly related to India's reduced palm oil purchases. In December, the destocking cycle is not expected to start yet. The high inventory in the producing areas continues to suppress prices. Currently, it is still in the stage of negative realization, and there is no substantial positive news yet. Future attention should be paid to the production and export situations in the producing areas [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan or 0.97% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,872 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan or 0.86%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,063 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan or 1.45% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 1.17%, with a spot basis of P05 + 20 yuan, a decrease of 18 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.84%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 408 yuan, a decrease of 2 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan or 1.24%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 497 yuan, an increase of 13 yuan [1] Market Information - Affected by the shutdown of coastal oil mills, the output of imported and pressed rapeseed oil continued to stagnate last week. Against the background of overall sluggish spot trading, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil maintained a passive downward trend and has dropped to a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 384,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.34% from the previous week. The contract volume was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons or 9.98% from the previous week [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was 1,159 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,120 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,070 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (January shipment) was 484 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (January shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (January shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (January shipment) was 245 cents/bushel, unchanged; US West Coast (January shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (January shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from December 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.55% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.08%, and the output decreased by 2.97% [2]

化工日报 | 2025-12-17 检修计划增多，EG低位反弹 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3700元/吨（较前一交易日变动+49元/吨，幅度+1.34%），EG华东市场现货价 3636元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.11%），EG华东现货基差-20元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-95美元/吨（环比+2美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1075 元/吨（环比+56元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为75.5万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14万吨，副 港到港量2.2万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量3万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡略 累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着检修兑现，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，近端供应压力有所缓解，但1月又将恢 复高供应，后续关注价格下降后乙二醇装置新增检修情况；海外供应方面，本周乙二醇外轮到货量回归中性，港 口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the liquidity situation of various market sectors on December 16, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of multiple market sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On December 16, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 849.387 billion yuan, a +24.56% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1406.923 billion yuan, a +5.20% change; the trading - holding ratio was 60.28% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On December 16, 2025, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 416.234 billion yuan, a - 12.59% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 742.040 billion yuan, a +0.49% change; the trading - holding ratio was 56.69% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On December 16, 2025, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 610.622 billion yuan, a - 26.80% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 673.869 billion yuan, a - 2.10% change; the trading - holding ratio was 88.50% - The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 977.344 billion yuan, a - 31.80% change; the holding amount was 502.580 billion yuan, a - 2.35% change; the trading - holding ratio was 280.87% [1] V. Energy - Chemical Plate - On December 16, 2025, the trading volume of the energy - chemical plate was 428.570 billion yuan, a - 12.79% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 442.301 billion yuan, a - 0.89% change; the trading - holding ratio was 91.70% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On December 16, 2025, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 337.875 billion yuan, a +5.17% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 593.555 billion yuan, a - 0.40% change; the trading - holding ratio was 54.37% [1] VII. Black Building Material Plate - On December 16, 2025, the trading volume of the black building material plate was 218.691 billion yuan, a - 26.30% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 322.402 billion yuan, a +0.01% change; the trading - holding ratio was 65.41% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream support for propylene has weakened, and its rebound lacks momentum. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weakening, and the cost - side support has also declined. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy is to wait and see. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's basis structure data includes the closing price of the main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and contract spreads. The closing price of the main propylene contract is 5744 yuan/ton (+6), the East China basis is 231 yuan/ton (-6), and the North China basis is 102 yuan/ton (-29). There are also data on PL01 - 03 and PL03 - 05 contract spreads, and market prices in East, Shandong, and South China. [1][7][11] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 74% (+0%). The production profit and capacity utilization rates of different production methods such as PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking are involved. The PDH loss - related maintenance is not obvious, and the overall propylene capacity utilization continues at a high level. [1][19][28] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit of propylene is - 346 yuan/ton (+7). There are also data on the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR. [1][32] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rates and production profits of propylene downstream products have changed. For example, the PP powder capacity utilization rate is 40% (-0.89%), with a production profit of - 265 yuan/ton (+15); the epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 76% (+0%), with a production profit of 82 yuan/ton (+0); the n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 69% (-6%), with a production profit of 134 yuan/ton (-84); the octanol capacity utilization rate is 77% (+1%), with a production profit of 461 yuan/ton (-89); the acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 80% (+2%), with a production profit of 358 yuan/ton (+0); the acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 81% (+0%), with a production profit of - 742 yuan/ton (+15); the phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 80% (-3%), with a production profit of - 952 yuan/ton (+0). [1] V. Propylene Inventory - The propylene plant - level inventory is 45,960 tons (-1,930). There are also data on PP powder plant - level inventory. [1][66]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For PE, in December, the overall maintenance volume of PE is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the later period is also relatively limited. The PE start - up rate is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. The demand side is in a weak state with the decline of downstream start - up rates. Although the social inventory of PE is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening. In the short term, it is difficult to have substantial improvement under the supply - demand contradiction [2]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain at a high level as the maintenance intensity weakens and the supply may increase slightly. The profit of PDH has declined to the lowest level of the year, but the marginal device shutdown is not obvious. The downstream demand has limited order follow - up, and the overall inventory level is still high. The cost support has weakened, and the short - term rebound drive is limited [3]. - The trading strategy is to hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - sided trading with the short - term trend being weak and oscillating at the bottom. For cross - period trading, there is no recommended strategy. For cross - variety trading, it is advisable to shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it reaches a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Prices and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,543 yuan/ton (-14), and that of the PP main contract is 6,256 yuan/ton (+2). The spot prices of LL in North China and East China are 6,500 yuan/ton (+0) and 6,580 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The spot price of PP in East China is 6,200 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 43 yuan/ton (+14), in East China is 37 yuan/ton (+14), and the PP basis in East China is - 56 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE start - up rate is 84.1% (+0.1%), and the PP start - up rate is 78.3% (+0.7%) [1]. - **Production Profits**: The PE oil - based production profit is 231.1 yuan/ton (+47.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 388.9 yuan/ton (+47.6), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 774.2 yuan/ton (+43.2) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 105.0 yuan/ton (+7.1), the PP import profit is - 273.0 yuan/ton (+49.4), and the PP export profit is - 11.5 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 46.4% (-1.7%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 49.6% (-0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 44.1% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 62.9% (+0.3%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply is expected to increase with low maintenance and new device commissioning. The demand is weakening as the downstream start - up rates decline. The inventory pressure is still large despite the social inventory reduction. The cost support from oil prices is weakening [2]. - **PP**: The supply is expected to remain high with reduced maintenance. The demand has limited order follow - up, and the inventory level is high. The cost support has weakened [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Wait and see, with short - term weak oscillation at the bottom [4]. - **Cross - period**: No strategy [4]. - **Cross - variety**: Shrink the L05 - PP05 spread when it reaches a high level [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for a clear bottom signal and consider left - side buying opportunities at low prices [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices have dropped significantly, driving the cost side of asphalt negatively and causing the BU futures price to decline. The overall fundamentals of asphalt are still weak, but the gradual release of winter storage demand provides some support. If oil prices stop falling, the downside space of the asphalt market may be limited, but a rebound requires more positive factors. Potential positive factors may come from an increase in crude oil costs. If the Venezuelan crisis persists, it may lead to a decline in heavy oil supply and drive up the asphalt cost center [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 16th, the closing price of the main BU2602 contract in the afternoon session was 2,894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 2.36% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 237,057 lots, an increase of 29,936 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 372,360 lots, an increase of 161,403 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 2,840 - 3,270 yuan/ton; South China: 2,920 - 3,100 yuan/ton; East China: 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton. The spot prices in North China, Shandong, and South China decreased, while those in other regions remained stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a neutral stance, wait for a clear bottom signal, and pay attention to left - side buying opportunities at low prices [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy [2] - Cross - period: No strategy [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2] Figures - The report includes figures on the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the price difference between near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of petroleum asphalt futures, domestic asphalt weekly production, production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories in refineries and society [3]