Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are average, with the spot price remaining stable. The inventory increased significantly in October due to increased production in the Northwest and non - dry season in the Southwest. The market is expected to improve after the Southwest starts to cut production at the end of October. If there are relevant policies, the industrial silicon futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure. Although production may decrease in November, downstream production may also weaken. Mid - to long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8960 yuan/ton and closed at 8955 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2511 had a position of 211,670 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,044, down 141 from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton, and the domestic market transaction price was in the range of 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with the price center slightly moving down [1] Strategy - Short - term interval operation is recommended. For contracts during the dry season, long positions can be taken at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 28, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated, opening at 54,325 yuan/ton and closing at 54,355 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from the previous day. The position of the main contract reached 114,932 lots, and the trading volume was 208,200 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 258,000 tons, up 1.98% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW, up 6.70% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, down 4.84% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, up 2.65% month - on - month [3] - The price of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, but the price of 210R silicon wafers showed signs of weakness [3][4] Strategy - Short - term interval operation is recommended. The 11th main contract will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12th contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. In the medium - to long - term, long positions can be laid out at low prices [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The prices of the three major oils were fluctuating weakly yesterday. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and a slight decrease in exports are expected to lead to continued inventory accumulation in October, exerting certain pressure on the palm oil futures market [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,958.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan or -1.56% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,182.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.00 yuan or -0.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,730.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.00 yuan or -0.18% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,860.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or -1.56%, with a spot basis of P01 + -98.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan compared to the previous day; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan/ton or -0.71%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 178.00, a decrease of 8.00 yuan compared to the previous day; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,070.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or -0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 340.00, a decrease of 2.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Palm Oil Production and Export - According to SPPOMA data, from October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.78% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, SGS, and Amspec data, the estimated palm oil export volume from Malaysia from October 1 - 25, 2025, decreased by -0.36%, increased by 23.8%, and decreased by -0.27% respectively compared to the same period last month [2] - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) stated on Tuesday that Indonesia's palm oil inventory in August decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month. The decrease in production offset the decrease in export volume. In August, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 3.47 million tons, a 1.8% decrease from the previous month, and the crude palm oil production was 5.06 million tons. Due to favorable weather conditions, GAPKI expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by 10% in 2025 [2] Agricultural Situation in China - According to the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the agricultural and rural economy in the first three quarters generally maintained stable operation. The annual grain output is expected to have another good harvest. Summer grain production was stable and achieved a good harvest, with a yield of 299.48 billion catties. Early rice production increased, with a yield of 57.03 billion catties, an increase of 0.68 billion catties or 1.2% compared to the previous year. The area of autumn grain increased, especially the area of high - yielding corn increased significantly. In most agricultural areas this year, the light, temperature, and water conditions were favorable, and the autumn grain production situation in the three northeastern provinces, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang was relatively good. Recently, local areas have carefully organized the autumn grain harvest, and more than 85% of the harvest has been completed. Efforts have been made to deal with the continuous rainy weather in the Huanghuaihai region, and all - out efforts have been made to harvest and dry the grains to minimize the impact of disasters. The achievements of soybean and oilseed expansion have been continuously consolidated. It is expected that the soybean planting area will remain above 150 million mu for four consecutive years, and the output will continue to remain above 20 million tons; the area, yield per unit, and total output of summer oilseeds have all increased [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The PTA processing fee rebounded under the expectation of the anti-involution meeting. With the concentrated release of production capacity this year, the PTA processing fee was compressed to a low level, and most enterprises were in a loss state. The PTA overcapacity and low processing fee pattern are expected to gradually reverse in 2026 [1] - The recent rebound in crude oil prices was mainly due to the intensified sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU, but the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil market has emerged, and the upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient. The PXN rebound space is limited, and the PTA processing fee was compressed to a low level due to the commissioning of new plants. The market is paying attention to anti-involution policies [2] - The polyester operating rate remained stable, domestic sales orders improved, and the inventory of filament yarn decreased significantly. The profit of PF production increased, the inventory continued to decline, and the processing margin was moderately compressed. The bottle chip processing fee was expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the raw material price fluctuations and new production capacity release [3][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as the PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread [9][10] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It provides information on the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating rates in China and Asia [27][30][32] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [36][39][40] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, various factory inventory days of filament, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][60] 7. PF Detailed Data - The report includes the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [72][71][86] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip inventory days of factories, spot and export processing fees of bottle chips, export profit, and various month - to - month spreads of bottle chips [90][95][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Options: short put @ 83,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous sector led by precious metals had a correction yesterday. Copper prices were dragged down by the sharp decline in gold, and high copper prices increased downstream wait - and - see sentiment. So, a relatively neutral attitude is taken towards copper prices for now [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 88,160 yuan/ton and closed at 86,980 yuan/ton, a - 1.57% drop from the previous trading day's close. The night - session of the same day opened at 87,220 yuan/ton and closed at 87,910 yuan/ton, a 1.07% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 120 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton against the 2511 contract, with an average discount of 55 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 87,620 - 88,190 yuan/ton. The procurement and sales sentiment slightly recovered as holders lowered prices. Downstream buyers were mainly for rigid demand, and some traders replenished stocks at low prices. It is expected that the market sentiment will stabilize after the copper price correction, and the room for further narrowing of the spot discount is limited [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summaries - US government: The US Senate failed to pass the procedural vote on the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, and the government shutdown will continue. Employment market: ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the first report showed that the US private - sector employment increased by an average of 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11 [3]. 3.2 Mining End - On October 27, Harmony gold completed the acquisition of MAC Copper, the owner of the high - grade CSA copper mine in New South Wales, Australia, for $1.01 billion. Harmony will integrate the CSA copper mine into its asset portfolio, update its operating performance and key development milestones in early 2026, and disclose the complete mine plan in August 2026 [4]. 3.3 Smelting and Import - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) pointed out that the copper market is experiencing serious mine supply disruptions this year, and the cumulative impact will be fully felt in 2026, pushing the global copper market back into a supply shortage. Although the demand growth in 2026 is expected to be weak (only 2.1%), the copper market will turn into a 150,000 - ton supply shortage in 2026 after two years of surplus. Currently, the copper market is still in surplus, and the expected surplus in 2025 has been revised down from 289,000 tons to 178,000 tons [5]. 3.4 Consumption - China Power Construction is participating in the construction of the UAE RTC photovoltaic - energy storage project, which includes a 5.2GW photovoltaic power station and a 19GWh battery energy storage system. China Power Construction is responsible for the northern block (2.1GW photovoltaic + 7.6GWh energy storage). The project is expected to be put into operation in 2027 [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 575 tons to 134,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 454 tons to 35,846 tons. On October 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 184,500 tons, a change of 2,900 tons from the previous week [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Russia's sanctions are beneficial for OPEC to continue increasing production. With the current geopolitical situation and production - increase policy, it is expected that the production quota increase will continue, and OPEC's actual supply depends on Saudi Arabia's production willingness [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On a certain day, the December - delivered light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $1.16 to $60.15 per barrel, a decline of 1.89%; the December - delivered Brent crude oil futures price in London fell by $1.22 to $64.40 per barrel, a decline of 1.86%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.78% at 458 yuan per barrel [1]. - Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser said that global crude oil demand was strong even before sanctions on Russian oil companies. He predicted an oil demand growth of 1.1 - 1.4 million barrels per day next year, and oil and gas will remain important in the global energy structure in the coming decades [1]. - On October 28, oil prices declined for the third consecutive day as OPEC +'s production - increase plan outweighed the positive impact of trade optimism. OPEC + is likely to slightly increase production again in December. Sanctions on Russian oil companies previously boosted oil prices, and investors are now questioning their effectiveness. The IEA chief believes the impact of sanctions on oil prices is limited due to large surplus production capacity [1]. - The Iraqi oil minister stated that Iraq's daily oil export volume is 3.6 million barrels, with the Kurdistan region exporting about 195,000 barrels per day. Iraq's crude oil production capacity is 5.5 million barrels per day, but it adheres to OPEC's quota of 4.4 million barrels per day [1]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine will expand its strikes on Russian refineries [1]. Investment Logic - After Russia is sanctioned, it is conducive to OPEC's continuous production increase. Saudi Crown Prince will visit the US in mid - November. Based on the current geopolitical situation and production - increase policy, the production quota increase is expected to continue, and OPEC's actual supply depends on Saudi Arabia's production willingness [2]. Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate within a short - term range and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risks - Downward risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3]. - Upward risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil, breakthroughs in China - US trade negotiations, and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, port inventory declined slightly. Low开工 rates of downstream styrene, CPL, and adipic acid dragged down demand, leading to a weak port basis. The domestic开工 rate of pure benzene decreased at an accelerating pace, and attention should be paid to the impact of European and American sanctions on Russian oil on refinery loads [3]. - For styrene, there were still short - term maintenance plans, and new device launches such as Jihua and Guangxi Petrochemical had an impact. Downstream开工 changed little, but提货 was average, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics remained high, resulting in continuous port inventory pressure [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts of pure benzene. Also, EB's main contract trend & basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts of styrene are presented [8][12][17] 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Figures show naphtha processing fees, the spread between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profits, the spread between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the spread between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the spread between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the spread between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the spread between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [23][25][31] 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Figures display pure benzene's East China port inventory,开工 rate, styrene's East China port inventory,开工 rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [42][44][47] 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the开工 rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [53][55][58] 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the开工 rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [61][64][76] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Short - term, buy the spread of pure benzene processing fees (pure benzene - naphtha) at low levels [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.80/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,520 yuan/ton, closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 57,175 lots, a decrease of 24,547 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 77,635 lots, a decrease of 6,760 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,540 yuan/ton and a low of 17,340 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,370 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 229,675 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The absolute price strategy is neutral, and the option strategy is to wait and see [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Suggested [6] Core Views - Steel: There is a game between macro expectations and real supply - demand. Industry's weak reality has limited improvement. Short - term steel prices will maintain a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment has improved, and prices have risen slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply growth expectations are deepening. Future steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand and pressure on prices [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and the supply of coking coal is recovering slowly. The supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased, and the supply of coking coal is still tight [4]. - Thermal Coal: The cost of coal transportation has increased, and the coal price in the production area has weakened. Short - term demand support is insufficient, and the supply pattern will remain loose in the long - term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,091 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,305 yuan/ton. Today's spot steel trading was generally weak, and prices made up for yesterday's increase. Building material inventory is being destocked, iron - making water production is gradually decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices continued to rise. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were strong. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 892,000 tons, a 22.19% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.668 million tons (12 transactions), an 87.42% increase from the previous day (with a mine transaction volume of 1.158 million tons). The current steel mill production cuts are limited, and iron - making water production remains high, ensuring a certain level of ore consumption. In the future, steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand [2]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways - with - a - downward - bias approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The second - round price increase of coke has fully landed, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the production of some local mines is still low. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1,130 - 1,140 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, supply is gradually recovering. The demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries is okay, and long - term contract customers' shipments are stable. Most coal mines have balanced production and sales, and the pit - mouth coal price is rising. At ports, inventory has reached a historical high, inquiry enthusiasm has declined, downstream demand is low, and prices are being pressured, resulting in low trading activity. The import market is running steadily with a downward bias [6]. - Strategy: No strategy is suggested due to the severe lack of futures liquidity [6].

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread for SHFE aluminum [9] Core Views - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum remain unchanged. Overseas production cuts and macro - positive factors limit the depth of price corrections. The upward space for aluminum prices may open if inventory reduction is smooth [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing alumina, but alumina prices lack upward momentum due to cost and supply factors. The current price valuation is low, and uncertainties around the Guinea election need attention [7][8]. Summary by Category Aluminum Spot and Futures - **Spot prices**: On October 28, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,160 yuan/ton, Central Plains A00 aluminum was 21,030 yuan/ton, and Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,070 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures prices**: The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on October 28, 2025, was 21,315 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 21,140 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 187,481 lots, and the open interest was 285,793 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 28, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 66,243 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 465,650 tons, a decrease of 3,625 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot and Futures - **Spot prices**: On October 28, 2025, the alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,845 yuan/ton, 2,790 yuan/ton, 2,865 yuan/ton, 3,025 yuan/ton, and 3,035 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures prices**: The opening price of the alumina main contract on October 28, 2025, was 2,829 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,817 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.28%). The trading volume was 314,332 lots, and the open interest was 389,764 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices**: On October 28, 2025, the procurement prices of Baotai civil - grade scrap aluminum and mechanical scrap aluminum were 16,700 yuan/ton and 16,900 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4]. - **Cost and profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,703 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 97 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic aluminum**: Overseas production cuts, stable consumption, and macro - positive factors limit the depth of price corrections. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm [6]. - **Alumina**: Electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing, but prices are under pressure due to cost and supply factors. The price valuation is low, and uncertainties around the Guinea election need attention [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for L and PP; Inter - term: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Newly commissioned polyolefin plants are continuously ramping up production, putting pressure on the polyolefin market. PE and PP prices are affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with limited upward space and weak fundamentals [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,985 yuan/ton (-39), PP main contract at 6,657 yuan/ton (-42). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,980 yuan/ton (+30) and 7,060 yuan/ton (+10) respectively. PP spot price in East China was 6,610 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -5 yuan/ton (+69), in East China was 75 yuan/ton (+49), and PP basis in East China was -47 yuan/ton (+42) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 81.5% (-0.3%), PP operating rate was 75.9% (-2.3%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 271.3 yuan/ton (+33.5), PP oil - based production profit was -408.7 yuan/ton (+33.5), and PDH - based PP production profit was 9.2 yuan/ton (-57.2) [2] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was -36.9 yuan/ton (+11.9), PP import profit was -305.8 yuan/ton (+11.6), and PP export profit was -15.3 US dollars/ton (-1.5) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 47.1% (+4.2%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 52.6% (+0.4%), PP downstream woven bag operating rate was 44.4% (+0.1%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+0.2%) [2] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: OPEC+ has a production increase plan, increasing the expectation of supply surplus and weakening demand. International oil prices are falling, weakening the cost support for PE. Supply is expected to increase due to reduced maintenance, concentrated imports, and new plant production. Demand is limited, with downstream purchasing being cautious. PE prices are in short - term consolidation with limited upside [3] - **PP**: International oil prices and propane prices are falling, weakening cost support. Although temporary maintenance has eased supply pressure to some extent, new plant production still poses pressure. Downstream demand is slowly recovering with limited growth. The weak supply - demand situation persists, and price increase sustainability may be limited [3] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP - **Inter - term**: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 - **Inter - variety**: None [4]