农产品日报 | 2025-12-17 关注疫病风险，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11350元/吨，较前交易日变动+45.00元/吨，幅度+0.40%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+250，较前交易日变动-35；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.79元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH03+440，较前交易日变动-95；四川 地区外三元生猪价格12.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+900，较前交易日变动-45。 据农业农村部监测，12月16日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.72，比昨天上升0.06个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.66，比昨天上升0.06个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.40元/公斤，与昨天持平；牛肉66.00元/ 公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉62.64元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；鸡蛋7.45元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡17.70元/公 斤，比昨天下降1.7%。 市场要闻与重要数据 期货 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-17 西北价格有所回落，港口仍卸货延后 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润550元/吨（-13）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1955元/吨（-13），内蒙北线基差426元/吨（-68），内蒙南线1940元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2240元/吨（+0），鲁 南基差311元/吨（-55）；河南2115元/吨（+0），河南基差186元/吨（-55）；河北2125元/吨（-10），河北基差256元/ 吨（-65）。隆众内地工厂库存352830吨（-8490），西北工厂库存199000吨（-6000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单207471 吨（-32244），西北工厂待发订单101600吨（-26900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2103元/吨（-2），太仓基差-26元/吨（-57），CFR中国245美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-18元/ 吨（+15），常州甲醇2335元/吨；广东甲醇2075元/吨（+0），广东基差-54元/吨（-55）。隆众港口总库存1234370吨 （-115060），江苏港口库存635100吨（-68 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: In the short term, both international and domestic cotton markets face supply pressure and weak demand, but the downside space is limited. In the medium - long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. For domestic cotton, new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space of international sugar prices is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has low valuation, and the short - term downside space is also limited [4] - Pulp: Although the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, the previous negative factors have been digested, and the marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials in the future may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,945 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,968 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. As of December 13, the planting progress of 2025/26 Brazilian cotton was 10.1%, up 4.8 percentage points month - on - month and 2.1 percentage points slower year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory slightly increased. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, with obvious inventory - building pressure. In the short term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the medium - long term, the downside space is limited [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton continued to increase in production. Short - term supply is abundant, but the hedging resistance on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of cotton prices is limited [1] Strategy - Be neutral to bullish, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Focus on the change of the cotton target price policy next year [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.42%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.6008 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of December, a year - on - year increase of 37.65% [3] Market Analysis - International: The short - term rebound of raw sugar futures is supported, but the global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - medium - term rebound space is limited. - Domestic: The supply of Zhengzhou sugar is abundant in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation limits the short - term downside space [4] Strategy - Be neutral. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the futures market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,468 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan/ton (-1.87%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,075 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Most pulp prices were stable, and a few decreased slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance plans. The Crofton paper mill in Canada will be permanently closed, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down. - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is still at a high level, but it has decreased recently. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity in the future will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Be neutral. The previous negative factors have been digested, but the supply - demand situation has not been substantially improved, which limits the upward space of pulp prices. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [8]

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-17 美国就业疲软，国债期货涨跌分化 市场面：（7）收盘价：2025-12-16，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.43元、105.80元、107.91元、111.39元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为-0.02%、0.03%、0.05%和 -0.19%。（8）TS、TF、T和TL净基差均值分别为-0.013 元、-0.014元、-0.003元和0.113元。 综合来看：央行主管媒体提及更大规模专项债和超长期特别国债的发行预期，市场随即转向交易 "宽财政—供给放 量" 逻辑，长端收益率单日上行。全球贸易不确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定性。整体看，债市在稳增长与宽 松预期间震荡运行，短期关注月底政策信号。 策略 单边：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡。 套利：关注2603基差回落。 套保：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保。 风险 流动性快速紧缩风险 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决Tik ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-17 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 原油端大幅下跌，LPG市场相对坚挺 市场分析 1、\t12月16日地区价格：山东市场，4380-4480；东北市场，4080-4300；华北市场，4300-4420；华东市场，4320-4475； 沿江市场，4640-4960；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4390-4550。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷600美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷590美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4664元/吨，跌42元/吨，丁烷4586元/吨，跌42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷594美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷584美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4617元/吨，跌42元/吨，丁烷4539元/吨，跌43元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 虽然原油价格出现大幅下跌，但LPG外盘表现相对坚挺，到岸成本受到一定支撑。现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] 2. Report's Core View - The overall price of soybean meal is mainly in a state of oscillatory operation due to the unchanged supply - demand pattern, high oil - mill operating rates, continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and the lack of sudden news stimuli after policy stabilization. Attention should be paid to the import situation of US soybeans and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - For corn, the supply in the domestic market is temporarily tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is strong. The market situation also needs to focus on the new - season corn acquisition situation [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2777 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2359 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.77% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2570 yuan/ton [1] - **Corn and Corn Starch** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2502 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.44% [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Recent Market News - **Soybean** - US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending December 11, 2025, was 79.6 tons, lower than the market forecast of 100 - 125 tons [2] - As of last Thursday, the sown area of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season reached 97% of the expected area, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [2] - Brazil exported 165 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 16.5 tons, a 73% increase from the daily average export volume in December 2024 [2] - **Corn** - US corn export inspection volume in the week ending December 11, 2025, was 158.3 tons, within the market forecast range of 100 - 160 tons [4] - Brazil exported 290.9 tons of corn in the first two weeks of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 29.1 tons, a significant increase compared to December 2024 [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Soybean Meal** - The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. The soybean meal price is mainly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the import of US soybeans and the weather in South American production areas [3] - **Corn** - In the domestic market, the supply is temporarily tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while the demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is strong. The new - season corn acquisition situation needs attention [6] 3.4 Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is neutral [4][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each product, the strategies suggest a "sideways" movement: - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron ore: Sideways [2][3] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [3][4] - Thermal coal: The report does not provide a clear strategy but indicates a weak price trend [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall market of black building materials is affected by multiple factors such as environmental protection production restrictions, seasonal production cuts, and changes in supply - demand relationships. Each product shows different supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and most products are in a state of price fluctuations. 3. Summary by Product Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,081 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,246 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume of steel was average. The low - price transactions in the morning were good, but there were few transactions after price increases, and the basis shrank. The national building materials trading volume was 99,186 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For building materials, there is no significant production pressure currently, and inventory is continuously decreasing. For plates, high inventory continues to suppress prices, but demand resilience remains. In the short term, the supply side is affected by environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, and raw material support may weaken [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 761 yuan, up 0.92%. Spot prices rose slightly, but trading volume was low. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand restocking, with purchase prices mostly following the market [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The demand side of iron ore is currently weak. The steel product market has weak supply and demand, and steel mills' production enthusiasm is not high under the state of small profits, resulting in a continuous decline in hot metal production. Although the demand is weak, the iron ore price remains high due to the tight supply of some varieties at ports and weak liquidity, temporarily covering up the supply - demand contradiction. In the future, as steel mills start seasonal production cuts and are affected by environmental protection production restrictions, hot metal production is expected to further decline. If the port resource liquidity improves, combined with the fundamental supply - demand contradiction, the iron ore price will face significant downward pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures continued the previous pattern of sideways and slightly stronger, and continued to rebound slightly. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, port inventory continued to accumulate, prices fluctuated with the market, and downstream market procurement was cautious, with limited overall trading activity [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coking coal currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Coal mines are mainly operating with low supply, and supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream coke has the expectation of further price cuts, and enterprises' enthusiasm for restocking is average, mostly for on - demand procurement. Coke also faces pressure on both supply and demand. Supply has slightly declined, and on the demand side, some steel mills are undergoing maintenance and production cuts, and the winter storage restocking plan has not yet been launched, with a relatively light trading atmosphere in the market [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, the coal prices in the main producing areas continued to run weakly. Downstream demand was mainly for on - demand hauling, and speculative demand was weak. Most coal mines sold at reduced prices, but sales did not improve, and mine inventory accumulated. At ports, affected by the continuous weakness in the producing areas, port quotes continued to decline. Some traders were extremely pessimistic about the future market, and the phenomenon of selling at a loss intensified. Currently, port inventory is high, the number of anchored ships is small, and the turnover rate has not increased. Traders at ports generally have a pessimistic attitude, believing that the current decline is large and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future. In terms of imports, affected by domestic coal prices, the tender price of imported coal continued to decline, and the market trading atmosphere was cold [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have continued to run weakly, with downstream consumption falling short of expectations and relatively high inventory. Some coal mines have completed their annual tasks, so it is difficult to have significant improvement in supply in the later period. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, as well as coal consumption and restocking [5]. - **Strategy**: The report does not provide a clear trading strategy but mentions factors such as coal mine safety supervision dynamics, port inventory accumulation changes, daily consumption of thermal coal and chemical coal, and other unexpected accidents that need to be concerned [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, with a focus on the 05 contract [4]. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is weakening, while PX is relatively resilient. The geopolitical situation is mostly bearish, and the PXN is firm due to good expectations for the first half of next year. The 1 - 5 month spread of PX has strengthened, but the rebound space of PXN is limited in the seasonal demand off - season [1]. - For TA, the basis has rebounded, and there is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but there will be inventory accumulation pressure in January. In the long term, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve after the end of the concentrated production capacity release cycle [2]. - The polyester start - up rate is 91.2% (down 0.6% month - on - month). The weaving load has declined, and the start - up rate is expected to further decline in mid - December. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term but may decline around January [2]. - For PF, the production profit has increased, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the demand from downstream yarn mills is weak, and the willingness to stock up is low [3]. - For PR, the processing fee has increased, the load is stable, the inventory has decreased, and the processing interval is expected to slightly expand [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as the PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][13]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [24][26]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA and PX loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as in Asia [27][30][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA and PX warehouse receipt inventories, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][38][39]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the long - filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning long - filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, long - filament factory inventory days, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [47][49][55]. PF Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn start - up rates, production profits, and processing fees, as well as the factory inventory available days [69][73][78]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference with recycled bottle - chips, and month - on - month spreads [90][92][98].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) for various stock index options on December 15, 2025. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On December 15, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) had 127.08 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) had 141.08 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options had 174.84 million contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options had 13.14 million contracts; and CSI 1000 options had 25.11 million contracts. Other options also had corresponding trading volumes [1]. - A table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various stock index ETF options on the same day, such as 40.73 million call contracts and 44.49 million put contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, with a total of 85.22 million contracts [20]. Option PCR - The PCR data of different stock index options on December 15, 2025, are presented. For example, the turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was 0.74, with a month - on - month change of - 0.05; the position PCR was 1.05, with a month - on - month change of + 0.05. Similar data are provided for other options [2]. - A table summarizes the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, position PCR, and month - on - month change of various stock index ETF options [35]. Option VIX - The VIX data of different stock index options on December 15, 2025, are given. For instance, the VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was 14.23%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.42%. Other options also have corresponding VIX values and changes [3]. - A table shows the VIX and month - on - month change values of various stock index ETF options [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period of the past five years. The spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, the inventory accumulation in China is still expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of overseas inventories. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is $90.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,470 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 70 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,390 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -10 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 210 yuan/ton to 23,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -20 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On December 15, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 23,480 yuan/ton, closed at 23,430 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 168,578 lots, and the position was 83,302 lots. The highest price during the day was 23,600 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,205 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of December 15, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 125,700 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 64,475 tons, an increase of 2,550 tons from the previous trading day. [3]