Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti-involution of the polyester industry chain has fermented again, and the PTA and bottle-grade polyester chip industries will hold a development symposium to prevent and resolve involutionary competition [1]. - The PTA processing fee has been compressed to a low level, but with the end of this round of PTA production and the planned increase in polyester production capacity in 2026, the pattern of oversupply of PTA capacity and low processing fees is expected to gradually reverse [1]. - The recent rebound in crude oil prices is due to increased sanctions on Russia by the US and the EU, as well as other factors, but the contradiction of oversupply of crude oil has begun to materialize, and the macro situation is still unclear [2]. - The short-term rebound of PX floating prices is limited, and the rebound space of PXN is restricted due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some devices [2]. - The PTA processing fee has been compressed to a low level, with more maintenance plans in the near term and less inventory accumulation pressure, but the pressure will gradually appear after November [2]. - The polyester operating rate is 91.4%, and domestic sales orders have improved significantly this week. The inventory of filaments has decreased significantly, but the current raw material inventory of weaving is not high [3]. - The spot production profit of PF is 202 yuan/ton, the short-fiber factory's sales are smooth, and the inventory continues to decrease [3]. - The spot processing fee of PR is 472 yuan/ton, the load remains stable, and attention should be paid to the later device load and new capacity release progress [3]. - For the futures market, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. It is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices and there is no recommendation for inter-period trading [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The TA main contract spot basis is -81 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +2 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 91 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +23 yuan/ton) [2]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is 234 US dollars/ton (month-on-month change -4.00 US dollars/ton), and the PXN rebound space is limited [2]. III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Not provided in the content IV. Upstream PX and PTA Startups - The PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and the PTA near-term maintenance plans are many [2]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The PTA inventory accumulation pressure after November will gradually appear [2]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (month-on-month +0.0%), and the load of weaving machines and texturing machines has rebounded significantly [3]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 202 yuan/ton (month-on-month -42 yuan/ton), and the short-fiber processing difference is moderately compressed to the 1100 - 1200 range [3]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 472 yuan/ton (month-on-month change +1 yuan/ton), and the load remains stable [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The closing price of the main ethylene glycol (EG) contract was 4,109 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.78%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,183 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis in East China was 84 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$52/ton, up $8/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -586 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 57.9 million tons (up 3.8 million tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays, and 48.3 million tons (down 1 million tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week totaled 19.8 million tons, and at the secondary ports 4.5 million tons, indicating a high likelihood of inventory accumulation [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG load was operating at a high level. Overseas, there were still significant supply losses, with two or more Saudi Arabian plants shut down or operating at low loads. However, the supply would be postponed in the short term due to issues with certain vessels related to the US. On the demand side, the polyester downstream market had moderately improved with the recent cooling, boosting market sentiment [1]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Despite the high supply and significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, the price had fallen to near the April low. The moderate improvement in demand and the rebound in costs had boosted market sentiment [2]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 [2]. - Inter - commodity: None [2]. 4. Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and the spot basis in East China, but specific analysis content is not provided in the given text [1][3][4]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based EG and coal - based syngas EG are mentioned, along with their month - on - month changes. The report also includes data on the total EG load and the syngas - based EG load, but no detailed analysis is given [1][3][4]. International Spread - The report mentions the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), but no detailed analysis is provided [3][4][17]. Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The report includes data on the production and sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips. However, no in - depth analysis is provided [3][4][18]. Inventory Data - The inventory data of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China are presented, including the data from CCF and Longzhong, and the planned arrivals this week are also given. The report also mentions the inventory at specific ports such as Zhangjiagang, Ningbo, etc., but no detailed analysis is provided [1][3][4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2) Core Views - **Cotton**: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external markets under pressure. In China, although the old - season cotton inventory is low, the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, but the medium - to - long - term outlook is relatively optimistic [2] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle, with the raw sugar price hitting a new low. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted [4][5] - **Pulp**: The pulp supply remains loose, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. On the spot side, the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. From October 17 - 23, 2025, the US graded and inspected 153,500 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 77.6% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, due to the delay of key data release and the expected loose supply - demand pattern, the short - term external market is under pressure. In China, the old - season cotton inventory is low, but the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, and the medium - to - long - term depends on the implementation of the US cotton production reduction and export goals [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. There is a high hedging pressure on the short - term disk, and there is a possibility of a callback. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price outlook is relatively optimistic [2] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. In Guangxi Nanning, the spot price was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In September 2025, China's refined sugar production was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, and from January - September, it was 10.984 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [3] - **Market Analysis**: The raw sugar price hit a new low due to the strong supply from Brazil and the expected global sugar surplus. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted as the import intensity is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [4][5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. There is no obvious short - term driver, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the weak trend of the external market. Attention should be paid to whether it can form a phased support around 5,400 [5] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: On the futures side, the pulp 2601 contract closed at 5,258 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,990 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pulp remains loose, with the overseas production reduction plan having limited impact. The demand is weak, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry. The downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene port inventory has declined again, but the basis performance remains weak due to weak downstream demand, with varying degrees of decline in the开工 rates of styrene, CPL, and adipic acid. The domestic开工 rate of pure benzene has decreased at an accelerating pace, and the pure benzene load of some refineries in Shandong and Ningbo has been affected by the sanctions on Russian oil by Europe and the United States [3]. - For styrene, there are still short - term maintenance plans, and new device launches such as Jihua and Guangxi Petrochemical have an impact. Downstream开工 changes little, but the提货 performance is average, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics remains high, so the port inventory pressure of EB persists, waiting for further loss - driven production cuts [3]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Figures related to the basis and inter - period spread of pure benzene and EB are presented, including the basis of pure benzene and EB main contracts, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper cargo, and the spread between the first and third contracts of pure benzene and EB [8][12][19] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Figures show the processing fees of naphtha, the spread between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, the production profit of non - integrated styrene devices, and various internal and external spreads of pure benzene and styrene [22][25][31] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Figures display the inventory and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene, including the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory of styrene, and the East China port inventory and operating rate of pure benzene [42][44][47] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures show the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS, which are the downstream products of styrene [53][55][58] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as the production profits of related products like PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, etc. [63][66][77] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Short - term strategy is to expand the spread of pure benzene processing fees (pure benzene - naphtha) when it is low [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals are average, with the futures market maintaining a volatile trend. Starting from the end of October, the supply - demand situation may improve. In the long - term, if there are policy incentives, the market may rise. For polysilicon, the current supply - demand fundamentals are average with high inventory pressure. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips as policies are expected to be introduced [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,950 yuan/ton and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, a change of (-15) yuan/ton or (-0.17)% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 201,518 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 48,185 lots, a change of -142 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable. The silicon price in Tianjin increased slightly, while those in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Sichuan, the Northwest, Shanghai, and Xinjiang remained unchanged [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market transaction price range was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with the mainstream transaction concentrated at 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. The market average price decreased by 150 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the center of the transaction price moved down slightly [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable. In October, the start - up in the Northwest increased, and the Southwest has not entered the dry season and has not stopped production, resulting in a large increase in inventory. Currently, the fundamentals are average, and the futures market maintains a volatile trend. Starting from the end of October, the Southwest will start to reduce production, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and it is advisable to go long on the dry - season contracts on dips. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 52,510 yuan/ton and closing at 54,500 yuan/ton, a change of 3.82% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 105,877 lots (81,555 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 238,898 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.95 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 25.80 (a change of 1.98% month - on - month), the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW (a change of 6.70% month - on - month), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,500.00 tons (a change of -4.84% month - on - month), and the silicon wafer output was 14.73GW (a change of 2.65% month - on - month) [4]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with high overall inventory pressure. The production reduction in October was less than expected, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month. The sharp rise in the futures market on that day was mainly affected by downstream acceptance of warehouse receipts. Currently, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [7]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. The 11 main contract fluctuates between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.36 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.04 yuan/piece). The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and the output in November is expected to decline [6]. - For battery cells, the prices of high - efficiency PERC182, PERC210, TopconM10, Topcon G12, Topcon210RN, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells remained stable [6]. - For components, the mainstream transaction prices of PERC182mm, PERC210mm, N - type 182mm, and N - type 210mm remained unchanged [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Total profit is accelerating improvement, with emerging manufacturing leading the growth. From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 537.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. In September, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size showed an accelerating recovery trend, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, 1.2 percentage points faster than in August. The revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points faster than in August, and the monthly growth rate accelerated for two consecutive months [3]. - In terms of structure, emerging manufacturing leads the growth rate. Driven by policies, the profits of the midstream are gradually recovering. High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing are the core driving forces, with profits increasing by 8.7% and 9.4% respectively, jointly driving the overall profit growth by 5 percentage points. More than half of the industries achieved profit growth, and the profits of private and foreign-funded enterprises increased by 5.1% and 4.9% respectively, indicating a general recovery of market vitality. In addition, the operating profit margin of enterprises increased by 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a steady improvement in profitability quality [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 2025 January - September National Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Profit - Profit growth: The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 537.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Among them, state-owned holding enterprises' profit was 170.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; joint-stock enterprises' profit was 399.235 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%; foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises' profit was 135.097 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9%; private enterprises' profit was 151.317 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1%. The mining industry's profit was 63.692 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.3%; the manufacturing industry's profit was 406.718 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9%; the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water industry's profit was 66.91 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3% [31]. - Revenue and cost: The operating revenue was 102.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%; the operating cost was 87.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.6%; the operating profit margin was 5.26%, a year-on-year increase of 0.04 percentage points. The cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 85.56 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.18 yuan; the expense per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 8.36 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.16 yuan [32]. - Asset and liability: At the end of September, the total assets were 186.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%; the total liabilities were 107.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%; the owner's equity was 78.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7%; the asset-liability ratio was 58.0%, a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage point. The accounts receivable were 27.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%; the finished product inventory was 6.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.8% [32][33]. - Other indicators: The operating revenue per 100 yuan of assets was 74.7 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9 yuan; the per capita operating revenue was 1.856 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62,000 yuan; the turnover days of finished product inventory were 20.2 days, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 days; the average collection period of accounts receivable was 69.2 days, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 days [35]. Interpretation of Industrial Enterprises' Profit Data by Yu Weining, Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics - Profit recovery: From January to September, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size accelerated recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, the highest cumulative growth rate since August last year; 2.3 percentage points faster than from January to August. In September, the profit increased by 21.6% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points faster than in August [37]. - Revenue growth: From January to September, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.4% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point faster than from January to August. Among them, in September, the revenue increased by 2.7%, 0.8 percentage points faster than in August, and the monthly growth rate accelerated for two consecutive months [38]. - Industry performance: More than half of the industries achieved profit growth, and more than 60% of the industries saw an increase in growth rate. High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing played a significant driving and supporting role. The profit of high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and in September, it increased by 26.8%, driving the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size by 6.1 percentage points. The profit of equipment manufacturing increased by 9.4% year-on-year, and in September, it increased by 25.6%, driving the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size by 10.5 percentage points [38][39][40]. - Enterprise performance: The profits of enterprises of different scales and types have improved. The profits of large, medium and small enterprises increased by 2.5%, 5.3% and 2.7% respectively year-on-year. The profits of private and foreign-funded enterprises increased by 5.1% and 4.9% respectively, 1.8 and 4.0 percentage points faster than from January to August [40]. - Profit margin: From January to September, the operating profit margin of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.26%, a year-on-year increase of 0.04 percentage points; in September, it was 5.49%, a year-on-year increase of 0.85 percentage points, and it has increased for two consecutive months [41].

Report Overview - The report is an index option daily report, providing data on option trading volume, PCR, and VIX for various index options on October 24, 2025 [1]. 1. Option Trading Volume - On October 24, 2025, the trading volumes of different index options were as follows: 900,600 contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, 929,900 contracts for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), 1,148,500 contracts for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), 47,700 contracts for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, 1,785,500 contracts for ChiNext ETF options, 37,600 contracts for SSE 50 index options, 104,100 contracts for CSI 300 index options, and 223,700 contracts for CSI 1000 options [1]. 2. Option PCR - The PCR data of different index options on October 24, 2025 are as follows: - SSE 50 ETF options: The turnover PCR was 0.50, with a -0.23 change from the previous period; the open interest PCR was 0.97, with a -0.02 change [2]. - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market): The turnover PCR was 0.58, with a -0.31 change; the open interest PCR was 1.13, with a +0.06 change [2]. - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market): The turnover PCR was 0.73, with a -0.63 change; the open interest PCR was 1.25, with a -0.11 change [2]. - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: The turnover PCR was 0.61, with a -0.70 change; the open interest PCR was 1.25, with a -0.04 change [2]. - ChiNext ETF options: The turnover PCR was 0.52, with a -0.63 change; the open interest PCR was 1.31, with a +0.14 change [2]. - SSE 50 index options: The turnover PCR was 0.31, with a -0.12 change; the open interest PCR was 0.68, with a +0.00 change [2]. - CSI 300 index options: The turnover PCR was 0.37, with a -0.19 change; the open interest PCR was 0.80, with a +0.06 change [2]. - CSI 1000 index options: The turnover PCR was 0.66, with a -0.49 change; the open interest PCR was 0.95, with a +0.06 change [2]. 3. Option VIX - The VIX data of different index options on October 24, 2025 are as follows: - SSE 50 ETF options: The VIX was 16.87%, with a -0.09% change from the previous period [3]. - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market): The VIX was 17.69%, with a -0.75% change [3]. - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market): The VIX was 22.19%, with a -1.38% change [3]. - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: The VIX was 24.42%, with a -0.82% change [3]. - ChiNext ETF options: The VIX was 29.88%, with a -0.63% change [3]. - SSE 50 index options: The VIX was 17.51%, with a -0.16% change [3]. - CSI 300 index options: The VIX was 18.42%, with a -0.77% change [3]. - CSI 1000 index options: The VIX was 23.00%, with a -0.99% change [3].

流动性日报 | 2025-10-27 市场流动性概况 2025-10-24，股指板块成交7333.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.04%；持仓金额12901.39亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.19%；成交持仓比为56.96%。 国债板块成交3539.70亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.05%；持仓金额8012.04亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.28%；成交持 仓比为44.34%。 基本金属板块成交4241.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+23.53%；持仓金额5687.83亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.40%； 成交持仓比为80.59%。 贵金属板块成交7264.51亿元，较上一交易日变动-25.30%；持仓金额4645.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.38%；成交 持仓比为180.27%。 能源化工板块成交4140.53亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.54%；持仓金额4366.84亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.67%；成 交持仓比为73.07%。 农产品板块成交3091.26亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.07%；持仓金额5653.55亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.41%；成交 持仓比为50.84%。 黑色建材板块成交2540. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The growth of mid - stream machinery manufacturing is prominent, and the downstream real estate shows a slight recovery. The plastics in the upstream chemical products are under price pressure due to oversupply and weak demand, while industrial metals remain strong due to supply shortages. In the mid - stream, the added value of the machinery industry in the first three quarters increased significantly, with the automotive and electrical machinery industries having high growth rates, and the intelligent equipment manufacturing industry also performing well. In the downstream, the cultural and tourism market is active, online retail continues to thrive, and some upgraded consumer goods show good growth, but the sales of traditional fuel - powered vehicles decline, and the real estate sales in first - tier cities increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Medium - term Overview - **Upstream**: As of October 26, plastics in chemical products faced price pressure due to supply surplus and weak demand during the peak season. Industrial metals remained strong due to supply shortages, with copper prices fluctuating at a high level due to global mine - end supply disruptions and aluminum prices having potential upward elasticity as the capacity utilization rate is at a high level [1]. - **Mid - stream**: In the third - quarter report data released this week, the added value of the machinery industry above the designated size in the first three quarters increased by 8.7% year - on - year, significantly higher than the national industrial average. The growth rates of the automotive and electrical machinery industries exceeded 11%, making outstanding contributions. The added value of the intelligent equipment manufacturing industry increased by 12.2%, and the output of industrial robots in the first nine months reached 595,000 sets, exceeding the whole - year figure of last year [1]. - **Downstream**: In the third - quarter report data released this week, the cultural and tourism market was active, with double - digit growth in box office revenues of the film and performance markets, and active tourism travel. Online retail continued to be active, with the proportion of online retail sales in the total social retail sales rising to 40.5%. Upgraded consumer goods showed good growth, with the retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry products increasing by 33.5% and sports and entertainment products also growing. The retail sales of basic daily necessities such as grain, oil, food, and daily necessities increased by 8.2% and 3.7% respectively. The retail sales of automotive products decreased, and the sales of traditional fuel - powered vehicles were sluggish. The real estate sales in first - tier cities increased significantly this week [1]. II. Industry Overview - **Production Industry**: No specific content provided other than the industrial added - value and PPI data figures in the graphs [22][20]. - **Service Industry**: No specific content provided other than the data figures in the graphs [25][30]. III. Industry Pricing - **Industry Market Pricing**: No specific content provided other than the graph [31]. - **Industry Credit Spreads**: The credit spreads of various industries are presented in a table, showing the data of last year's same - period, one month ago, last week, this week, and the quantiles for industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery; mining; chemical industry; etc. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry this week is 41.55, with a quantile of 0.00 [32]. IV. Sub - industry Tracking - **Generalized Agriculture**: Palm oil prices declined, while corn and cotton prices increased [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: Styrene and polyethylene prices decreased. Urea inventory continued to rise, PVC inventory decreased slightly, and the inventories of methanol and pure benzene showed no significant change compared with the previous period [5]. - **Non - ferrous Industry**: The prices of some non - ferrous metals such as zinc and aluminum increased, and copper prices fluctuated. The inventories of some non - ferrous metals such as lead and copper decreased cyclically [4]. - **Ferrous Industry**: The prices of some ferrous metals such as soda ash, hot - rolled coils, and rebar decreased, while the coking coal price increased significantly. The inventory of rebar decreased slightly [4]. - **Infrastructure Industry**: The concrete price remained stable, and the bagged cement price increased. The concrete shipment volume and capacity utilization rate increased slightly [6]. - **Logistics and Transportation Industry**: Railway transportation declined, while road transportation increased [7]. - **Automobile Manufacturing Industry**: The retail sales of automotive products decreased, and the sales of traditional fuel - powered vehicles were sluggish [1]. - **Real Estate Industry**: The sales of commercial housing in first - tier cities increased significantly compared with the previous period. The sales in cities like Chengdu, Fuzhou, Xiamen, and Nanjing increased more. The housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Hefei decreased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The actual implementation prices in the first half of November are gradually being revised downward, and attention should be paid to whether there will be price increase notices for the second half of November next week [7]. - For the October contract, the valuation is becoming clearer, but there are significant differences in the market regarding the final delivery settlement price due to factors such as vessel delays, the intersection of low - and high - priced vessels, and price opacity [6]. - For the December contract, trading focuses on the rhythm. Shipowners will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next year's long - term agreement negotiations. The trading rhythm will involve alternating between price increase expectations and actual implementation until delivery [7]. - The February 2026 contract may have significant expectation differences but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes and price increase notices. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 45 - week quote is 1420/2370, and HPL has price increase notices for November [1]. - **Geopolitical Factor**: The US has agreed to postpone the opening of the Rafah Crossing until all Israeli detainees' remains are handed over. The crossing is an important channel for humanitarian aid to Gaza [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly container shipping capacity from China to European base ports in October is 32.41 million TEU, 29.39 million TEU in November, and 32.18 million TEU in December. There are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [3]. 3.3 Counter - measures and Their Impact - China has taken counter - measures against the US USTR port surcharge, and the US will also impose port fees on Chinese - related vessels. However, the impact on the European route is relatively small as the number of US - flagged vessels is limited [4]. 3.4 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The prices of some shipping alliances have been revised downward in the second half of October. There are large differences in the market regarding the final delivery settlement price [5][6]. - **December Contract**: It focuses on the trading rhythm. Shipowners will adjust supply to maintain high freight rates. The trading will alternate between price increase expectations and actual implementation [7]. - **February 2026 Contract**: It may have significant expectation differences but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages. If the duration of price - holding contracts is extended and high prices are realized in January 2026, the February contract price may be higher than the December contract [8]. 3.5 Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU have been delivered [9]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The December contract is expected to be strongly volatile. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: No arbitrage opportunities are currently available [10].