Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Core View of the Report - In September, the supply side faces relatively large disturbances, such as reduced scrap copper circulation and intensive smelter maintenance. Although downstream demand is not outstanding, grid demand provides support. Coupled with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices are expected to remain relatively strong in September [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,500 yuan/ton and closed at 80,110 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 80,000 yuan/ton and closed at 80,260 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on September 3, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 80 - 300 yuan/ton, with an average of 190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price was 80,320 - 80,720 yuan/ton. Due to high copper prices and the impact of the parade on market trading, the procurement and sales sentiment weakened, and the premium of flat - copper dropped to around 100 yuan/ton. The premium is expected to remain in a stalemate with a low probability of significant fluctuations [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro - economy**: The US economic Beige Book shows that consumer spending is flat or declining as many families' wages fail to keep up with price increases. Some regions have raised prices of goods and services to cover rising costs. The number of job openings in the US in July dropped to 7.181 million, a 10 - month low. Fed Governor Waller said the Fed should start cutting interest rates this month and make multiple cuts in the coming months [3] - **Mine End**: Teck Resources has suspended major growth projects until its QB copper mine in Chile achieves stable production. SolGold has moved its tax residence to Switzerland to promote the development of its Cascabel copper - gold project and plans to advance the project's commissioning by 3 - 4 years. Codelco warns that Chile's copper production may stagnate at about 5.5 million tons per year [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In August, Chile exported 176,430 tons of copper, with 44,803 tons to China. The export of copper ore and concentrates was 989,009 tons, with 598,266 tons to China. The LME postponed the start of Asian trading by 90 minutes, and the 3 - month copper price reached the highest level since March [5] - **Consumption**: At the end of the month, downstream cable enterprises face increased capital pressure, high copper prices suppress orders, and the demand for enameled wires is weak. The raw material inventory decreased by 3.25% to 32,700 tons, and the finished product inventory increased by 2.87% to 68,000 tons. Demand is expected to pick up next week. In the wire and cable sector, high copper prices at the beginning of the week suppressed order release, and most enterprises focused on completing existing orders [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 100 tons to 158,575 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons to 19,471 tons. On September 1, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,100 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week [6] Data Table - **Spot (Premium)**: On September 4, 2025, the premium of SMM 1 copper was 190 yuan/ton, the premium of premium copper was 290 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - copper was 105 yuan/ton, the premium of wet - process copper was 20 yuan/ton, the Yangshan premium was 58 yuan/ton, and the LME (0 - 3) was - 70 [26] - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 158,575 tons, SHFE inventory was 79,748 tons, COMEX inventory was 254,987 tons [27] - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 19,471 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 8.23% [27] - **Arbitrage**: CU11 - CU09 was - 60, CU10 - CU09 was 40, CU09/AL09 was 3.87, CU09/ZN09 was 3.59 [27] - **Import Profit**: - 53 yuan, and the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) was 8.03 [28]

化工日报 | 2025-09-04 下游恢复不及预期，PTA基差偏弱 市场分析 成本端，俄乌问题的进展陷入了停滞甚至倒退，近期地缘局势继续升温，胡赛武装袭击了以色列敌军占领的雅法 地区，对多个目标进行打击，继续推动油价上行。同时印度无视美国关税制裁，继续购买俄罗斯原油也在需求端 利好油价涨幅扩大。不过宏观层面金融市场巨震，也引发了油价宽幅波动。另外，石脑油近期表现偏强，一方面 乌克兰再度袭击俄罗斯主要石脑油出口港乌斯季卢港，使得石脑油供应预期进一步收窄。另一方面，需求端，东 北亚市场近端买气尚可，且部分裂解装置也将在检修结束后重启，需求预期支撑石脑油经济性继续修复。下游烯 烃临近旺季，效益底部同样具备保障。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN246美元/吨(环比变动-6.25美元/吨）。9月初出光检修装置重启以及后市福海创重启后， 预计国内外PX负荷还将继续上行。近期中国PX负荷陆续恢复，同时PTA检修增加下PX平衡表由去库转为松平衡， 基本面环比转弱,近月PX浮动价有所松动转弱，但PX整体仍处于低库存状态，考虑到新PTA装置对PX的刚需采购， PXN下方有支撑，继续关注窗口商谈和仓单情况。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt market has limited contradictions, and spot prices remain stable. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, with low inventory and a continuous de - stocking trend at refineries and in the social sector. The cost of asphalt is still supported by short - term volatile and strong crude oil prices, but there is potential downward pressure on the oil market due to possible further OPEC production increases. The asphalt market lacks fundamental drivers, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of falling oil prices on the futures market after the rebound of the futures price [1]. - The strategy for asphalt is a unilateral oscillation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 3, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,550 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 93,085 lots, a decrease of 12,775 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 101,178 lots, a decrease of 51,331 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt according to Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,510 - 3,820 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,490 - 3,540 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in the Shandong market rose slightly, while prices in other regions remained generally stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, and Northwest China), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, and near - month spread), futures trading volume and open interest (unilateral and main contract), domestic asphalt production (weekly, independent refineries, and in different regions), domestic asphalt consumption (road, waterproofing, coking, and ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential. For the stainless - steel market, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the main nickel contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,790 yuan/ton, a - 1.10% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,550 (- 3,232) lots, and the open interest was 84,729 (- 6,033) lots. Affected by the stronger US dollar index and the fading impact of the Indonesia event, the night - session price dropped sharply and then oscillated at a low level, with a daily - session amplitude of only 0.87% [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The CIF price of 1.4% nickel ore was 50.5, showing a rising trend. The offer for 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia was 43.44. The Philippine side had firm quotes and good shipping efficiency. The domestic ferronickel price was stable, but domestic iron plants were still in the red and purchased cautiously. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the premium remaining at +24 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, a 1,800 - yuan drop from the previous day. Refined nickel trading was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 21,860 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 214,230 (+3,996) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel prices are mainly volatile, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,915 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 87,549 (- 43,080) lots, and the open interest was 86,864 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session opened slightly lower, then rebounded and oscillated around 12,965 yuan/ton. The daily - session gave back the night - session gains, with a minimum drop to 12,885 yuan/ton. The daily amplitude was only 0.81%, and the trading volume decreased by 43,100 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Spot**: The weakening of futures prices led to stronger market wait - and - see sentiment. Traders' price - concession behavior did not support spot transactions. Downstream acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and market competition was fierce, resulting in poor transaction volume. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,250 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 355 - 655 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - With eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass demand remains weak with high inventory and insufficient production cuts, leading to a weak price trend; soda ash supply is high and demand may weaken further with new capacity coming online, so the price is under pressure [1] - The supply - demand surplus in the ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon industries is obvious, and losses are needed to suppress production release, with prices expected to follow the sector's fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Directory Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures oscillated, and downstream procurement was cautious; soda ash futures had a narrow - range oscillation, and downstream demand was mainly for replenishing inventory [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Glass demand is weak, high inventory pressure persists, and production cuts are insufficient; soda ash supply is high, and demand may weaken further as new capacity is put into operation [1] - **Strategy**: Glass and soda ash are both expected to oscillate weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Ferrosilicon manganese futures fell 0.21% to 5732 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 5650 - 5730 yuan/ton; ferrosilicon futures fell 0.14% to 5520 yuan/ton, and the spot price was slightly reduced [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Both ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon have increased production and sales and reduced inventories, but the supply - demand surplus is still obvious, and losses are needed to suppress production release [3] - **Strategy**: Both ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market is neutral [4] - The investment strategy for the corn market is cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views - In the domestic bean meal market, the current inventory continues to increase, and future soybean arrivals are expected to remain high, so the supply is relatively loose. The decline in import costs has led to a corresponding drop in domestic bean meal prices. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policy negotiations [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply is expected to increase as new grains in North China and Northeast China are approaching the listing time. The demand from deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises is weak, and more attention should be paid to the output of new - season corn [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data for Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3066 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2521 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.84%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3060 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2640 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - US market information: As of August 31, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 65%, lower than the expected 68%. The export inspection volume for the week ending August 28, 2025, was 472,914 tons. The US soybean crush in July 2025 was 204.7 million bushels [2] 2. Market News and Important Data for Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2193 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2487 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.72%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - US market information: As of August 31, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 69%. The export inspection volume for the week ending August 28, 2025, was 1,407,050 tons [4] 3. Market Analysis - Bean meal: The current domestic bean meal inventory is increasing, and future soybean arrivals are high, so the supply is loose. The decline in import costs has affected the price, and Sino - US trade policy is a key factor [3] - Corn: The supply is expected to increase as new grains are about to be listed. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak, and the output of new - season corn is crucial [5] 4. Strategies - Bean meal: Neutral [4] - Corn: Cautiously bearish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current macro situation mainly drives the rise in non - ferrous metal prices, with the spot market for electrolytic aluminum being weak, but consumption shows positive signs, and the reduction of inventory is expected. The overseas consumption is strong, and the consumption peak season is still expected. The alumina price is neutrally treated due to cost support and various influencing factors. The aluminum alloy consumption has recovered, and the profit has been repaired [6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: On September 3, 2025, the prices of A00 aluminum in East China, Central China, and Foshan were 20,730 yuan/ton, 20,570 yuan/ton, and 20,670 yuan/ton respectively. The opening price of the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract was 20,680 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,710 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 623,000 tons, the warehouse receipt inventory was 59,557 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons [1][2] - **Market Analysis**: The macro situation is favorable, the supply remains unchanged, the consumption shows positive signs, the downstream processing enterprise production and the start - up rate have increased, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the overseas consumption is strong [6] Alumina - **Price and Inventory**: On September 3, 2025, the alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 3,155 yuan/ton, 3,130 yuan/ton, 3,170 yuan/ton, 3,280 yuan/ton, and 3,285 yuan/ton respectively. The opening price of the main alumina futures contract was 3,020 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,992 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% [2] - **Market Analysis**: After the sharp decline in the futures price, the spot market trading is cold, the north - south price difference has widened, the cost side has support, the price lacks the driving force to fall further, and the supply - demand balance is slightly surplus [7][8] Aluminum Alloy - **Price, Inventory, and Profit**: On September 3, 2025, the procurement prices of Baotai civil scrap aluminum and mechanical scrap aluminum were 15,900 yuan/ton and 16,100 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change. The social inventory was 54,600 tons, the factory inventory was 61,200 tons, the theoretical total cost was 20,027 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 373 yuan/ton [3][4][5] - **Market Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the production profit has been repaired, the consumption has recovered, the increase in inventory is mainly due to the transformation of hidden inventory into explicit inventory, and the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract can still be concerned [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of polyolefins has increased significantly due to the commissioning of new capacity and the increase in the overall operating rate of existing devices. The upstream inventory has shifted downward, with a slight decrease in production enterprise inventory and inventory accumulation in the middle - link, resulting in certain pressure on the supply side. The cost - end support is weak, and the demand side is slowly rising but lacks short - term new orders, with limited upward - driving force [3]. - For trading strategies, a neutral stance is taken for single - side trading; a 01 - 05 reverse spread is recommended for inter - period trading; and going long on the L - P spread is suggested for inter - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7247 yuan/ton (- 5), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6954 yuan/ton (+ 11). The LL spot price in North China is 7180 yuan/ton (+ 10), in East China is 7170 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6830 yuan/ton (- 20). The LL basis in North China is - 67 yuan/ton (+ 15), in East China is - 77 yuan/ton (+ 5), and the PP basis in East China is - 124 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 78.7% (+ 0.0%), and the PP operating rate is 80.2% (+ 2.0%). The PE oil - based production profit is 107.1 yuan/ton (- 95.7), the PP oil - based production profit is - 452.9 yuan/ton (- 95.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 151.5 yuan/ton (- 125.4) [1]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - Not provided with specific content in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 280.1 yuan/ton (- 20.0), the PP import profit is - 600.1 yuan/ton (- 50.0), and the PP export profit is 32.4 US dollars/ton (+ 6.2) [2]. 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 17.5% (+ 2.9%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 49.6% (- 0.3%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 42.3% (+ 0.3%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (- 0.3%) [2]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory has shifted downward, with a slight decrease in production enterprise inventory and inventory accumulation in the middle - link, indicating certain pressure on the supply side [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: Buy call options [3] 2. Core View - On September 3, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures market continued to be weak. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate both increased. After the reduction in mica production, spodumene production compensated for part of the decrease. Chile's export volume was average, and it was expected to maintain a slight inventory reduction in September. The recent increase in warehouse receipts had a certain inhibitory effect on the market. Although there was support on the consumer side, the market was volatile [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On September 3, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 72,860 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 71,880 yuan/ton, a - 3.10% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 442,800 lots, and the open interest was 346,048 lots (348,109 lots the previous day). The basis was 3,020 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts were 34,118 lots, a change of 2,111 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 73,900 - 77,900 yuan/ton, a - 1,600 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,900 - 74,300 yuan/ton, also a - 1,600 yuan/ton change. The 6% lithium concentrate price was 850 US dollars/ton, a - 10 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1]. - The lithium carbonate futures continued to decline, with the lowest intraday price falling below 72,000 yuan/ton. The downstream price - fixing activities were extremely active. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the inventory cycle of downstream material factories was slightly extended. There was a structural differentiation on the supply side: the production of lithium mica in Jiangxi significantly contracted, and the increase in the spodumene end could make up for part of the gap. In September, the market showed a situation of increasing supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and there would be a temporary supply shortage [1]. - In August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 16,900 tons, a 19.2% month - on - month decrease and a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 13,000 tons, a 4.8% month - on - month decrease and a 6.9% year - on - year increase. Exports to South Korea were 3,000 tons, a 50.4% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. In August 2025, Chile's lithium sulfate export volume was 6,916 tons, a 33.42% month - on - month decrease, all sent to China. From January to August 2025, Chile sent a total of 62,000 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 127% year - on - year increase [2]. Strategy - It was expected that lithium carbonate would still have support, but the market was volatile. Participants needed to manage risks well. The unilateral strategy was cautiously bullish, and the option strategy was to buy call options [3].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-04 市场分析 国内现货市场维持弱势运行，成交冷清，贴水低位稳定。但海外升水持续走强，内外供需矛盾短期难解。国内基 本面依旧偏弱势，虽然国产矿TC难涨，受甚至可能小幅回落，但冶炼利润犹存，国内供给压力依旧较大，8月锌锭 产量同比增加28%，消费旺季持续累库为大概率事件。但海外对价格形成有利支撑，一方面宏观向好，另一方面海 外锌锭供应收缩，消费平稳，海外库存持续下滑，贴水收窄，存在挤仓风险。当前锌锭绝对价格回落后下游采购 积极性好转，短期锌价维持中性判断。 策略 单边：中性。 套利：中性。 风险 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为20.44美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22240元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22230元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-80元/吨；天津锌 现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22230元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-80元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-03沪锌主力合约开于22250元/吨，收于22285元/吨，较前一交易日20元/吨，全天交易日成交 117964手，全天交易日持仓1 ...