Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View Over the past half - week, the bond market showed an overall weak and volatile trend, characterized by "strong stocks and weak bonds, with sentiment disturbances as the main factor." The strong performance of A - shares and the rising expectations of Sino - US negotiations led to an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. There was no urgent expectation for short - term interest rate cuts, resulting in insufficient motivation for loose trading. Emotional fluctuations made funds more inclined to play short - term bands rather than take long - term positions. The new redemption fee rules, active bond switching, and the wait - and - see sentiment before the release of external CPI data also suppressed long - term allocation demand. The bond market remained in a weak and volatile range, mainly reflecting the defensive behavior of trading desks and profit - taking at high levels. In the short term, attention should be paid to the rhythm of the stock market and the emotional recovery after the release of external inflation data [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Macro - level - **Macro - policies**: On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, VAT would be restored on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. Previously issued bonds would still be exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and expand effective investment. The finance minister promised more proactive macro - policies, and the NDRC aimed to release domestic demand potential and manage over - capacity. In October, the US imposed export controls and special port fees on Chinese entities, and Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China starting from November 1 [1]. - **Inflation**: In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [1]. Capital - level - **Fiscal**: The fiscal data showed "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion." In the first three quarters, the general public budget revenue increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on individual income tax, VAT, and stamp duty. The expenditure on social security, education, and debt interest payments maintained high growth. The government - funded budget revenue was still weak, with a narrowing decline in land sales but limited recovery, while the fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year [2]. - **Financial**: Financial data continued to show "stable liquidity and structural deficiencies in broad credit." The M1 growth rate rose to 7.2%, and the gap narrowed, indicating improved business activity. However, social financing and credit were still at a low level, and enterprise medium - and long - term financing was weak. Government bonds were the main source of social financing growth, and the monetary policy remained moderately loose [2]. - **Central Bank**: On October 24, 2025, the central bank conducted 168 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market**: The main repo rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.41%, and 1.57% respectively, and the repo rates had recently increased [2]. Market - level - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.33 yuan, 105.62 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 115.01 yuan respectively. Their weekly fluctuations were - 0.002%, - 0.04%, - 0.1%, and - 0.25% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 0.14 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: With the rising repo rates and the fluctuating treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is considered neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Attention should be paid to the rebound of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [4] - Inter - period: On the sidelines [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices have slightly increased, and with the rise of the futures market, spot trading has improved. Some regions are in the process of autumn fertilizer application for agriculture, and the production of autumn compound fertilizers is coming to an end. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased this week. As the weather clears, the sales sentiment has improved. The operating rate of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium to long term, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down this week. The current national inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. Starting from late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast are gradually starting operations. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast and the national off - season storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and September and October are still export windows. There is co - existence of port collection and departure, leading to inventory reduction. The export policy of urea may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent export dynamics [3] Summary by Directory Price and Spreads - Urea futures prices: The main urea contract closed at 1642 yuan/ton (+4). The prices of small - particle urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu markets were all 1570 yuan/ton (+20). The prices of different contracts (01, 05, 09) are also presented in the report [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads are analyzed. The basis of urea in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu is - 72 yuan/ton (+16) [2] Upstream Supply - As of October 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 77.61% (-2.06%), and the in - plant inventory of enterprises was 1.63 million tons (+15,000). The gas - based and coal - based operating rates of urea, as well as the production cost and profit, are also presented in the relevant figures [2][30] Downstream Demand - As of October 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 27.71% (+3.53%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 48.30% (-6.9%). The number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 7.41 days (+0.7). The FOB prices of small and large - particle urea in China, as well as the CFR prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia, are also analyzed [2][39] Urea Inventory - As of October 26, 2025, the port inventory was 210,000 tons (-236,000). The in - plant inventory, port inventory, and social inventories in Guangdong and Guangxi are also presented in the figures [2][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The improvement in lead consumption has increased the downstream's enthusiasm for lead ingot procurement, and the domestic social lead inventory has dropped to its lowest level in over a year. Positive factors for the terminal demand of the non - ferrous sector revealed in domestic important meetings have led to a significant increase in lead prices this week. However, due to the intermittent interference of trade dispute uncertainties and the suppression of demand caused by rising lead prices, the possibility of a continuous sharp increase in lead prices in the future is relatively low. The recommended trading strategy for next week is to buy on dips for hedging, with a suggested buying range of 17,250 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Lead Market Analysis - **Mine End**: In the week of October 24, the import ore market trading was stagnant, and sporadic quotes had little reference value. Domestically, smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other places were still in the process of winter storage, and partial maintenance slightly eased the supply pressure. There was a significant difference in processing fees between the north and the south. In the north, it was maintained at 300 - 400 yuan/metal ton, and some manufacturers with sufficient inventory quoted 500 - 600 yuan/ton; in the south, the competition was fierce, and some manufacturers purchased low - silver ore at zero processing fees to ensure production. Despite the recent sharp rise in silver prices, the market remained cautious about adjusting the pricing coefficient and it was expected to remain stable in the short term [1] - **Primary Lead**: In the week of October 24, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.57%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week. Regional performance was differentiated: production in Henan and Yunnan was stable; a maintenance enterprise in Hunan only resumed half - production and had no plan to reach full production; production in North China increased slightly and was expected to return to normal next month. In addition, a factory in East China planned to conduct maintenance in the fourth quarter, and the electrolytic lead production line would start in November [1] - **Recycled Lead**: In the week of October 24, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces decreased by 0.51 percentage points to 36.71%. Recycled lead enterprises generally lowered the purchase price of raw materials this week, and the weakening cost support led to a decrease in production willingness. Although some manufacturers replenished raw materials due to the decline in the price of waste batteries, the increase in production was mainly concentrated on long - term order delivery. The resumption of production of a large enterprise in Inner Mongolia drove the regional operating rate to rise, while other regions maintained stable operation. An Anhui smelter planned to start maintenance on the weekend, which was expected to significantly reduce the local operating level next week. Overall, the recycled lead industry showed a differentiated trend of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south" [2] - **Consumption**: In the week of October 24, the operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces increased by 7.10 percentage points to 42.21%. Regionally, the operating rate in Anhui increased slightly due to the production increase of an individual smelter; Jiangsu and Henan remained stable; the operating rate in Inner Mongolia soared by 56 percentage points driven by the resumption of production of a large factory. The high - level operation of lead prices improved smelting profits, and enterprises' production willingness increased. It was expected that the operating rate would still have room for further increase next week [2] - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 23, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions decreased to 3.19 tons, a change of - 2.05 tons from the previous week. The LME inventory changed by - 4375 tons to 235375 tons compared with the previous week [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended [7] - Options: Short Put [7] Core Views - The current high copper price is suppressing downstream consumption, and the short - term demand is difficult to improve, with the spot premium continuing in a low - level shock [1][2] - The rise in copper prices is mainly due to Trump's relatively mild stance on trade disputes and positive expectations from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, but the upward momentum may be insufficient [7] - The consumption of refined copper rods and copper cables shows a "not prosperous in peak season" feature, and it is expected that the overall consumption will remain sluggish next week [5][6] Key Points from Each Section Market News and Important Data - From October 25, 2025, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper ranged from 84,955 yuan/ton to 86,420 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend during the week. The SMM premium - discount quotation ranged from 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton, with a downward oscillation [1] - LME inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons to 13.64 million tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 10.48 million tons, domestic social inventory (excluding bonded areas) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 18.16 million tons, and bonded area inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 9.28 million tons. Comex inventory rose by 0.24 million tons to 34.8 million tons [1] Macro - economic Situation - In the week of October 25, 2025, the unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US in September was 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.1%, with a slight inflation rebound. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut in the October FOMC meeting was still as high as 98.3% [2] - The preliminary US manufacturing PMI in October was 52.2, the service PMI was 55.2, and the composite PMI was 54.8, all better than expected and higher than in September [2] - Trump announced the termination of all trade negotiations with Canada. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee boosted market expectations for future policies and infrastructure demand [2] Mining and Industry Dynamics - In the week of October 25, 2025, the spot market trading was light. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream purchasing willingness, and the processing fee weakened [2] - Angola's Tetelo Copper Mine is about to be put into production, with an annual capacity of about 25,000 tons. Codelco plans to raise the copper surcharge for Europe to a new high of $345/ton in 2026 [2] - China's copper concentrate imports in September decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month due to refinery maintenance in Zambia, unfavorable price ratios, and logistics and power constraints in Africa [2] Smelting and Import - In the week of October 25, 2025, the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline. The weekly average prices of bills of lading and warehouse receipts were $51.2/ton and $36.8/ton respectively, down $0.6 and $7.4 respectively from the previous week [3] - The EQ copper CIF bill of lading average price dropped to $7.8/ton, and some transactions were at a discount. The current import loss is about 1,100 yuan/ton [3] - PPC has negotiated to postpone the shipment of some November long - term orders. The bonded inventory decreased to 9.28 million tons this week, and it is expected to rise slightly in the future [3] Scrap Copper - The copper price oscillated upward, with a cumulative increase of 500 yuan/ton. The price of Guangdong bright copper rose to 77,800 - 78,000 yuan/ton [4] - The sales sentiment index of recycled copper raw material holders rose to 2.36, and the purchasing sentiment of recycled copper rod enterprises also slightly increased to 2.43 [4] - The average weekly refined - scrap price difference was 3,343 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous week. The imported recycled copper raw material in September was 184,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. It is expected that the refined - scrap price difference will further widen to 3,500 yuan/ton [4] Consumption - In the week of October 25, 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 61.55%, a slight decrease of 0.95 percentage points from the previous week. The consumption of cables and enameled wires was mainly for rigid demand [5] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises slightly increased to 62.34%, but new orders generally slowed down. It is expected that the operating rate of copper cables will slightly drop to 61.89% next week, and overall consumption will be hard to improve [5][6] Strategy - For copper, the operation next week can be mainly based on buying hedges on dips in the range of 85,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton. If the copper price breaks through the previous high, enterprises with selling - hedge needs can appropriately conduct selling - hedge operations [7] - Arbitrage operations are suspended, and the option strategy is short put [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral strategy for the oil and fat industry [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oil and fat futures and spot prices showed a downward trend, with palm oil leading the decline. The market lacks obvious driving forces, and each type of oil has its own supply - demand characteristics. Palm oil may face inventory build - up pressure, but will maintain high - level fluctuations; soybean oil has sufficient supply but export relieves pressure; and rapeseed oil supply is expected to tighten [1][6][7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of palm oil 2601 contract was 9,122 yuan/ton, down 186 yuan or 2.0% from the previous week; soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,194 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan or 0.75%; rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,761 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 1.01%. - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,050 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 1.52%; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 1.18%; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,100 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.69% [1] Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. Domestically, 4 new purchase ships and 1 cancelled ship were added from October 17 - 23, all with November shipment dates. - Demand: Terminal replenished goods intensively this week, with the national key oil mills' palm oil trading volume increasing by 84.18% compared to last week. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 tons, up 5.13% from last week and 11.59% from last year [2] Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 13.17%. From January - September, the cumulative import was 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 43rd week was 2.3674 million tons, and the expected crushing volume in the 44th week was 2.3392 million tons. - Demand: The average daily trading volume of domestic key oil mills' bulk soybean oil decreased by 28.98% compared to last week. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national key areas' soybean oil commercial inventory was 122.4 tons, down 3.25% from last week but up 8.32% from last year [3] Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume was 12,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The rapeseed inventory was low, and only a few enterprises were operating. The import of rapeseed is expected to be limited from October - December, and the production of rapeseed oil is expected to shrink sharply. - Demand: As of October 17, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed oil pick - up volume was 12,900 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from the previous period, and it is expected to decline slightly next week. - Inventory: As of this week, the national imported rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week; the coastal oil mills' rapeseed oil inventory was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week [4][5] Market Analysis - This week, the three major oil and fat futures showed a weak and volatile trend. Palm oil was the weakest due to over - expected production growth, slow export growth, and the possible delay of Indonesia's B50 policy; rapeseed oil had no obvious driving force in the short - term; soybean oil was relatively firm due to its low price and export orders. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil slightly recovered [6] Future Outlook - Soybean oil: The U.S. soybean harvest rate is 73%, but the sales progress is slow. Brazil's soybean planting rate is lower than the five - year average, but the expected output is high. China's soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase. Exports relieve some supply pressure, and the future depends on Sino - U.S. negotiations. - Palm oil: Indonesia's B50 policy may be delayed. Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly in October, and India's future import speed may slow down. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the inventory is expected to increase. However, due to the approaching production - reduction season and the promotion of Indonesia's biodiesel, palm oil will maintain high - level fluctuations. - Rapeseed oil: Canada's rapeseed harvest is almost over, but its exports are sluggish. China's import of rapeseed is expected to be limited from October - December. Rapeseed oil will fluctuate between tight supply of raw materials and slow inventory reduction [7][8][9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For caustic soda, the spot price is mainly stable. The supply side has a slight decline in the operating rate due to new production capacity and a mix of maintenance and increased production. The demand side shows a decrease in the receiving price of alumina, and the inventory is at a similar level to last week. The procurement of new alumina plants may support the price in the next two months, and the cost support still exists [1][2]. - For PVC, it rebounds with the macro - sentiment. The supply side is abundant with new production capacity coming on stream, and the demand side has a general purchasing sentiment after a pick - up in downstream operating rates. The inventory is still at a relatively high level. The export has some resilience, but the export of PVC products may be affected by Indian anti - dumping investigations. Attention should be paid to relevant policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of October 24, 2025, the SH main contract of caustic soda futures closed at 2373 yuan/ton (-12). The spot price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton (+0), and that of 50% was 1280 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 190 yuan/ton (+12) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of October 24, 2025, the main contract of PVC futures closed at 4708 yuan/ton (-22). The spot price of PVC in East China's calcium carbide method was 4630 yuan/ton (-10), and in South China's calcium carbide method was 4710 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in East China was - 78 yuan/ton (+12), and in South China was 2 yuan/ton (+22) [4]. III. Cost - Profit - As of October 24, 2025, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 1068.28 yuan/ton (+40.00), and (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 206.28 yuan/ton (-10.00). The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1571.40 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 1135.25 yuan/ton (-56.00). The single - variety production profit of PVC in the calcium carbide method was - 722.72 yuan/ton (-9.54), and in the ethylene method was - 560.46 yuan/ton (-7.70) [2][5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - As of October 24, 2025, the operating rate of caustic soda was 80.80% (-0.60%), and the weekly output was 79.54 tons (-0.70). Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity has reached full production, and there are both new maintenance enterprises and those increasing production this week [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of October 24, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 250 yuan/ton (+50). The operating rate of propylene oxide downstream of liquid chlorine was 67.82% (+0.26%), that of epichlorohydrin was 50.28% (-3.01%), and the weekly output of chloroform was 2.70 tons (-0.43) [2]. VI. PVC Supply - As of October 24, 2025, the average operating load of upstream calcium carbide was 66.01% (+1.69%), the operating rate of PVC was 76.57% (-0.12%), that of the calcium carbide method was 74.38% (-0.33%), and that of the ethylene method was 81.64% (+0.38). The loss due to shutdown and maintenance was 14.28 tons (+0.07). New production capacities are gradually reaching full production [4][5]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the operating rate of the main downstream alumina was 86.27% (+0.05%), the weekly output was 186.20 tons (+0.10), and the port inventory was 10.80 tons (+1.60). The operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 67.31% (+0.55%), that of viscose staple fiber was 88.61% (+0.00%), that of white cardboard was 79.65% (+3.32%), and that of hardwood pulp was 84.90% (-0.90) [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream was 49.86% (+1.27%), among which the operating rate of PVC pipes was 41.20% (+1.20), that of profiles was 35.87% (+2.61), and that of films was 72.50% (+0.00). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.54 tons (+7.99). In September, PVC exports were 34.64 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.94% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53% [4][5]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - As of October 24, 2025, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in domestic factories was 41.43 tons (+1.10), and that of flake caustic soda was 2.45 tons (+0.00). The inventory of PVC in factories was 33.38 tons (-2.65), and the social inventory was 55.47 tons (-0.15), among which the social inventory in East China was 50.52 tons (+0.04), and in South China was 4.95 tons (-0.19) [2][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; for spreads, EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread; for cross - variety, none [4] Core View - This week, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the basis strengthened significantly. The domestic ethylene glycol supply is still at a high level, while overseas supply losses remain high. Recently, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, boosting market sentiment [1][3] Summary by Directory Price and Spread - This week, the ethylene glycol price center fluctuated upward, and the basis strengthened significantly. At the beginning of the week, the ethylene glycol port inventory continued to rise, putting pressure on the ethylene glycol futures. In the middle of the week, with the intensification of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil rebounded. Affected by the possible delay of Saudi arrivals and the cancellation of the loading of some Iranian cargoes, the ethylene glycol price rose rapidly [1] Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 73.28% (a 3.88% decrease from last week), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 82.21% (a 0.32% increase from last week). With the maintenance and shutdown of plants such as Shenghong, Fujian Refining & Petrochemical, and Zhongke, the total EG load declined from a high level this week. Recently, the coal - based production has decreased, but the reduction of supply - side plants is not obvious, and the supply is still at a high level [1] Demand - The load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 75.0% (a 6.0% increase from last week), the load of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 84.0% (a 4.0% increase from last week), the polyester operating rate is 91.40% (unchanged from last week), and the direct - spinning filament load is 92.40% (a 0.40% decrease from last week). The inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY have decreased significantly. The operating rate of polyester staple fiber plants is 94.3% (unchanged), and the inventory days of polyester staple fiber plants' equity inventory have decreased. The operating rate of bottle - chip plants is 73.2% (a 0.8% increase from last week). With the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales, domestic orders have improved significantly this week. The load of looms and texturing machines has rebounded significantly, and the raw material rebound has also driven centralized restocking. The filament inventory has been significantly reduced. However, since the inventory is still at a seasonal high, the current raw material inventory of weaving mills is not high. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US tariff negotiations at the end of the month will bring favorable factors to drive external demand. Currently, the inventory of polyester plants is not high, and the cash - flow profit is acceptable. The average load of polyester in October and November is expected to be slightly increased [2] Inventory - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 57.9 tons (a 3.8 - ton increase from last week); according to the data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 48.3 tons (a 1.0 - ton decrease from last week). According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports of East China this week are 5.3 tons, and the planned arrivals at the secondary ports are 6.3 tons. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 48.3 tons, 3 tons lower than on Monday this week and 1 ton lower than on Thursday last week [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The demand for winter tires is concentrated, and the tire operating rate continues to rise. The inventory of natural rubber in China has decreased, with the cost - end support for natural rubber remaining strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the peak season. For butadiene rubber, the supply - side support remains, and the price is likely to rise but the high inventory may limit the rebound space [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data Raw Materials and Spreads - Thailand's glue is 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), cup rubber is 52.40 Thai baht/kg (+1.10), Yunnan's glue is 14,000 yuan/ton (+0), Hainan's glue is 13,600 yuan/ton (+0), RU basis is - 685 yuan/ton (+10), NR basis is 814 yuan/ton (-4), BR basis is - 220 yuan/ton (+0) [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,650 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,000 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,870 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton), and that of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber is 1,760 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton). The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical is 11,200 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [1] Supply - The warehousing rate of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 5.64% (-1.99%), including 5.53% (-1.97%) for general trade and 6.22% (-2.14%) for bonded warehouses. The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber is 71.71% (-2.12%), and the output is 28,791 tons [1] Production Profit - The production profit of Thai STR20 is - 219.00 yuan/ton (-165.00), and that of Thai RSS3 is 2,544.00 yuan/ton (+70.00). The production profit of butadiene rubber is 48 yuan/ton (+206), and that of butadiene produced by carbon - four extraction method is 1,594.88 yuan/ton (-173.54) [2] Demand - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.87% (+1.91%), and that of semi - steel tires is 72.84% (+2%). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province are 40.34 days (+0.39), and those of semi - steel tires are 45.26 days (+0.09) [2] Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons (-125,451), the social inventory of natural rubber is 1,112,557 tons (-122,953), the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 124,020 tons (-10,980), and the NR futures inventory is 42,640 tons (+2,521). The port inventory of upstream butadiene is 24,600 tons (-6,200), the inventory of butadiene rubber manufacturers is 28,650 tons (+750), and the inventory of butadiene rubber traders is 4,520 tons (-340) [2] 2. Market Analysis - Natural Rubber: Rainfall in major domestic and overseas production areas is expected to decrease. Since early October, China's inventory has decreased due to the slowdown in arrivals and the increase in tire operating rates. The demand for winter tires in northern China has boosted the operating rate of steel tires. With less rain later, focus on the price trend of cup rubber in Thailand. The cost - end support for natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the peak season [3] - Butadiene Rubber: Many butadiene rubber plants are under maintenance, and more plants have maintenance plans. The supply - side support remains. The demand for winter tires in northern China has boosted the operating rate of steel tires [3] 3. Strategy - RU and NR: Neutral. China's overall supply and demand may show a prosperous pattern. If the arrival volume rebounds, the depletion of social inventory will slow down or accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR are low, and the price is expected to move within a range. Pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [4] - BR: Neutral. Supply and demand may improve. The price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to be stable, and the surrounding natural rubber price provides bottom support for butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber is likely to rise, but the high inventory may limit the rebound space. Pay attention to positive spread opportunities between months [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, but the US government shutdown event needs continued attention [4] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term, and focus on possible breakthrough directions in non-ferrous metals, energy, etc. in the second half of inflation [5] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, with US economic data showing resilience. However, the US government shutdown event has entered its 24th day, and the market's pricing of its severity is relatively insufficient [4] Commodity Analysis - Overall, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non-ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term; the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by short-term tariff and inflation expectations; precious metals may enter a consolidation stage [5] Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan and emphasized promoting various undertakings [7] - The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses, and the Trump administration has "adjusted" its strategy [7] - Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov commented on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Russia-US leaders' meeting [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing an economic stimulus package [7] - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [7] - The EU has included Chinese enterprises in its sanctions list against Russia, and China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [7] - The US government shutdown continues, and the US has announced sanctions on two major Russian oil enterprises [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Cost side: This week, oil prices rebounded. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, along with the US plan to purchase crude oil to replenish strategic reserves, supported the upward movement of oil prices. Subsequently, Trump's cancellation of the meeting with Putin and increased sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US affected crude oil supply expectations, driving a significant increase in oil prices. However, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil fundamentals has begun to materialize, and the macro - situation remains unclear. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations and whether the Brent crude oil resistance level can be broken [1] - PX: This week, the operating rate of PX in China was 85.9% (a 1.0% increase from last week), and in Asia it was 78.5% (a 0.5% increase from last week). The load of domestic PX plants increased, mainly due to the fluctuating increase in the load of some domestic PX plants, while the overseas PX situation changed little. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. Although the floating price has rebounded in the short term, the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants [1] - TA: The operating rate of PTA in China was 78.8% (a 2.1% increase from last week), and the spot processing fee was 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 59 yuan from last week). The load of PTA increased slightly this week. With the expectation of new plant commissioning, the processing fee was compressed again. The near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that new plants are expected to be commissioned soon, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term expectation is weak, and the current market spot supply is relatively abundant. Although the demand side has improved recently, the improvement of the long - term inventory accumulation expectation in the fundamentals is limited [2] - Demand: This week, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 75.0% (a 6.0% increase from last week), and the polyester operating rate was 91.4% (unchanged from last week). With the cooling weather and the start of the Double Eleven sales, domestic orders improved significantly this week. The load of looms and texturing machines rebounded sharply, and the raw material price rebound also drove concentrated restocking. The inventory of filament yarns decreased significantly. However, since the inventory is still at a seasonal high, the current raw material inventory of weaving factories is not high. Attention should be paid to whether there will be positive news from the China - US tariff negotiations at the end of the month to boost external demand. Currently, the inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the cash - flow profit is acceptable. The average load expectation for polyester in October and November is slightly increased [2] - PF: This week, the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber was 94.3% (unchanged from last week). The inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories' equity were 7.7 days (a decrease of 1.4 days from last week), the operating rate of polyester yarn was 66.0% (unchanged from last week), the physical inventory of 1.4D was 15.0 days (a decrease of 0.8 days from last week), and the equity inventory of 1.4D was 3.4 days (a decrease of 1.6 days from last week). This week, the increase in the spot price of factories was less than that of futures, the basis and the price difference in the market narrowed, the sales of staple fiber factories were smooth, the inventory continued to decrease, and the load remained stable. The processing margin of staple fiber was moderately compressed to the range of 1100 - 1200. On the demand side, the sales of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn were stable, and the operating rate remained stable [3] - PR: The operating rate of bottle - chip factories (based on maximum capacity) was 73.2% (an increase of 0.8%), the inventory of bottle - chip factories was 17.8 days (a decrease of 0.2 days from last week), and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips was 471 yuan/ton (a decrease of 77 yuan from last week). This week, the prices of upstream polyester raw materials increased, and the prices of polyester bottle - chip factories mostly followed the increase of raw materials. The overall processing range was slightly compressed. The low - end market transactions were acceptable, but the transactions were weak after the price increase in the second half of the week. Fundamentally, the load of bottle - chips remained stable this week, and large factories generally maintained production cuts. The inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remained stable. With the improvement of processing efficiency, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase in the future and the progress of new capacity investment. In the future, as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the processing fee of polyester bottle - chips is expected to remain volatile overall, following the fluctuations of raw materials [3] - Strategy: Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR. The demand has improved due to the cooling weather, and the crude oil price has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical changes. For PX, the PX load in China has recently recovered to a relatively high level, and the rebound space of PXN is limited due to fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and the expansion of individual plants. For TA, the near - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is reported that a 3 - million - ton new plant is expected to be commissioned in late October, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November, with a weak long - term expectation. The current market spot supply is relatively abundant, the PTA processing fee and valuation are at a low level, and the demand side has marginally improved with the cooling weather. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the China - US tariff game at the end of the month and the crude oil fluctuations under geopolitical changes. For PF, the demand for PF has slightly improved, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, the short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fee is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. For PR, the fundamentals of bottle - chips have changed little, maintenance continues but demand is average, and the spot processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of raw material prices. Cross - variety: Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. Cross - term: None [4] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread - Figures show the trends of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, their basis, and cross - term spreads, as well as various processing fees, profits, and price differences [9][10][11] 2. PX and PTA Supply - Illustrate the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the loads of PX in China and Asia [45][46][49] 3. Inventory - Present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [54][56][66] 4. Demand - Include the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, the loads of polyester, direct - spinning filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of filament factories, and the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as the profits of filament [62][67][74] 5. PF Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Show the load of polyester staple fiber, the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, the physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, the load of recycled cotton - type staple fiber, the price difference between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [87][91][93] 6. PR Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Display the load of polyester bottle - chips, the inventory days of bottle - chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle - chips, the export profit of bottle - chips, and the price difference between East China water bottle - chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chips [110][111][115]