Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply of natural rubber is on a rising trend, but the current demand remains strong, resulting in firm domestic spot prices and a strong basis pattern. The raw material prices in domestic production areas are decreasing, while in Thailand, the cup rubber price remains firm due to rainfall disturbances, providing strong support for the cost of rubber. The downstream operating rate has rebounded, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. The valuations of domestic RU and NR are currently low, and the implementation of the European EUDR policy is expected to boost overseas raw material procurement demand, potentially leading to a rebound in rubber prices [7] - In late October, there will be an increase in maintenance of domestic upstream butadiene rubber plants, and the decline in supply may support the price of butadiene rubber. The operating rate of downstream tire factories has rebounded, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. The supply - demand situation may improve, and the price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to remain stable. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom - end support for butadiene rubber. However, the current high inventory of butadiene rubber may limit the upside space [7] Summary by Directory Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,350 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; the BR main contract was 11,050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were approximately 105,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high for the same period in recent years [2] - In September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million units, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 534.91 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The exports of automobile tires in the first three quarters were 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On October 22, 2025, the RU basis was - 700 yuan/ton (+50), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 350 yuan/ton (+50), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,915 yuan/ton (- 2,915.00), the NR basis was 847.00 yuan/ton (+19.00); the price of whole latex was 14,450 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 15,100 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (+100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,400 yuan/ton (- 50) [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 57.87 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.60), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20) [4] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.96% (+22.43%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.07% (+28.92%) [5] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On October 22, 2025, the BR basis was - 150 yuan/ton (- 10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,750 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,912 yuan/ton (- 2) [6] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.82% (+0.13%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The recently announced domestic import data for September continued to increase, slightly exceeding market expectations. The domestic supply is on an upward trend, but the current demand is still good, so the domestic spot prices remain firm, and the basis is strong. The rainfall in domestic production areas has significantly decreased, and with the recovery of raw materials, the domestic raw material prices are continuously decreasing. There will still be rainfall disturbances in Thailand, especially in the northern region. The cup lump price is firm, and the cost - end support for rubber remains strong. The downstream operating rate has rebounded recently, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. Currently, the valuations of domestic RU and NR are low. The implementation of the European EUDR policy is expected to boost overseas raw material procurement demand, and rubber prices may have some rebound momentum [7] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. In late October, there will be an increase in maintenance of domestic upstream butadiene rubber plants, and the decline in supply may support the price of butadiene rubber. The operating rate of downstream tire factories has rebounded, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. The supply - demand situation may improve, and the price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to remain stable. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom - end support for butadiene rubber. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber this week will be more likely to rise than fall. However, the current high inventory of butadiene rubber may limit the upside space [7]

甲醇日报 | 2025-10-23 甲醇现实港口库存压力仍大 甲醇观点 市场分析 港口方面，周三港口库存仍小幅回升，现实港口库存压力仍大，港口基差走弱。沿海仓储企业接伊朗船货意仍低， 继续关注事态进展。往上传导至部分伊朗甲醇企业发货下降，伊朗Marjan临时停车，伊朗装置停车开始有所增多， 关注后续冬检进度。 内地方面，煤头甲醇开工率底部回升，等待10月底开工进一步回升，内地库存延续低位回建；而传统下游方面， 甲醛、醋酸、mtbe开工偏低，供应上升而需求回落，周初内地价格进一步补跌。 策略 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润615元/吨（+10）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2020元/吨（+10），内蒙北线基差359元/吨（+17），内蒙南线1970元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2285元/吨（-5）， 鲁南基差224元/吨（+2）；河南2140元/吨（-5），河南基差79元/吨（+2）；河北2175元/吨（+0），河北基差174元/吨 （+7）。隆众内地工厂库存360360吨（+460），西北工厂库存219000吨（-4000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The fuel oil market rebounded following the crude oil market, but its own market drivers are currently limited. The market is in a window period with important macro events undecided, so it's necessary to be cautious about news disturbances. The fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil are okay with some market structure support, but the end of the power demand peak season in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to a decline in fuel oil consumption from power generation terminals, which is negative for the market. The low-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals are weak, but the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery is expected to marginally ease local supply pressure [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.13% at 2,691 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.32% at 3,135 yuan/ton. After continuous declines, market sentiment recovered, and the significant rebound in crude oil prices drove up the FU and LU prices. However, the market is in a window period with important macro events undecided, and news disturbances need attention. The fundamentals of high-sulfur fuel oil are okay with some market structure support, but the end of the power demand peak season in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to a decline in fuel oil consumption from power generation terminals, which is negative for the market. Recently, the contango structure in the overseas market has shown signs of weakening, indicating resistance above the market. The fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil are currently weak, and the market structure is operating weakly. But with the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery, local supply pressure is expected to ease marginally. Overall, apart from the influence of the crude oil market, the fuel oil market lacks its own drivers [1]. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-23 需求略有回暖，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约12220元/吨，较前交易日变动-15.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-350，较前交易日变动+55；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 12.08元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.29元/公斤，现货基差LH01-140，较前交易日变动+305；四川 地区外三元生猪价格11.41元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.20元/公斤，现货基差LH01-810，较前交易日变动+215。 综合来看，近期生猪现货价格受二次育肥需求火热支撑坚挺，但二次育肥是生猪再生产环节，并未改变市场总供 应而且会导致几月后的生猪供应进一步增加，当前二次育肥主要由散户承接，且散户更倾向养殖大肥猪，这直接 导致生猪供应后移问题凸显。供需节奏的变化使得市场"跷跷板效应"明显，近月合约与现货价格坚挺，远期合约 因预期供应增加而表现趋弱。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 鸡蛋观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘鸡蛋 2511 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have rebounded, and the price of propane in the external market has also stopped falling and rebounded. The short - term rebound in the cost side has slightly boosted the price trend of propylene. The supply side remains relatively loose due to some plant shutdowns and others ramping up production. The demand side shows that downstream cost pressure has eased, but downstream procurement is cautious. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of propylene remains loose, with limited upward drivers but also limited downside space at the current low price level. Attention should be paid to the impact of trade frictions on propane supply and the start - stop status of PDH plants [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6084 yuan/ton (+49), the East China spot price is 6075 yuan/ton (+0), the North China spot price is 6010 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is - 9 yuan/ton (-49), and the North China basis is - 74 yuan/ton (-49) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization is 74% (-1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 220 US dollars/ton (-18), and propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 136 US dollars/ton (-7) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 396 yuan/ton (+127) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 39% (-1.31%), with a production profit of - 10 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 68% (-4%), with a production profit of - 51 yuan/ton (-33); n - butanol capacity utilization is 90% (+2%), with a production profit of 12 yuan/ton (+0); octanol capacity utilization is 92% (-4%), with a production profit of - 199 yuan/ton (-100); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 75% (-8%), with a production profit of 1037 yuan/ton (-125); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 79% (+0%), with a production profit of - 516 yuan/ton (-25); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 78% (+0%), with a production profit of - 416 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 41490 tons (-1900) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see; the market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the dynamics of PDH plants - Inter - period: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for PL01 - 02 when the spread is high - Inter - commodity: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the marginal devices of various downstream products of butadiene, including their current status, production capacity, and sourcing of raw materials. The four major demand areas for butadiene, namely cis - polybutadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS, account for 86.45% of the total butadiene demand. The analysis is carried out in descending order of the demand ratio of externally - sourced raw material devices [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Preface The previous part of the series analyzed the marginal devices and regional device balance of butadiene itself. This part focuses on the marginal devices of butadiene's downstream products. The four major demand areas for butadiene are cis - polybutadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS, accounting for 86.45% of the total demand. The analysis will be conducted in descending order of the demand ratio of externally - sourced raw material devices [8]. 3.2 Butadiene Downstream Device Analysis 3.2.1 Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 38 sets of cis - polybutadiene rubber devices in China, with 5 shut down, 1 under construction, and 32 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 2.072 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 0.54 million tons (26.06%), state - owned enterprises is 1.472 million tons (71.04%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.06 million tons (2.9%). All use the polymerization method [9]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 2.112 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 1.23 million tons (59.36%), with state - owned devices accounting for 83%. The remaining over 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a total production capacity of 0.842 million tons, and the capacity in East China accounting for 88.12% [13]. 3.2.2 ABS Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 28 sets of ABS polymer devices in China, with 2 shut down, 5 under construction, and 21 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 9.165 million tons. The production capacity of state - owned enterprises is 6.72 million tons (73.3%), private enterprises is 1 million tons (10.9%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 1.445 million tons (15.77%). The emulsion grafting method accounts for 90.67% of the production capacity, and the bulk method accounts for 9.33% [16]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 9.165 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 2.34 million tons (25.53%), all of which are state - owned devices. The remaining 70% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a total production capacity of 6.825 million tons, and the capacity in East China accounting for 64.1% [20]. 3.2.3 SBS Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 30 sets of SBS devices in China, with 1 shut down, 3 under construction, and 26 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 1.845 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 0.44 million tons (23.85%), state - owned enterprises is 0.9 million tons (48.78%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.505 million tons (27.37%). The block anionic solution polymerization method accounts for 69.73% of the production capacity [25]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 1.845 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 0.38 million tons (20.6%), with state - owned devices accounting for 65%. The remaining nearly 80% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East and South China, with production capacities of 0.74 million tons and 0.655 million tons respectively, accounting for 39.59% and 39.25% [27]. 3.2.4 Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 29 sets of styrene - butadiene rubber devices in China, with 2 under construction, 25 in production, and 2 in long - term shutdown since 2018. The total production capacity of in - production devices is 1.765 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 0.1 million tons (5.67%), state - owned enterprises is 1.615 million tons (91.5%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.05 million tons (2.83%). The emulsion polymerization method accounts for 68.19% of the production capacity [32]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 1.765 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 1.055 million tons (59.77%), with state - owned devices accounting for 92.44%. The remaining 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a total production capacity of 0.71 million tons, and the capacity in East China accounting for 84.5% [34]. 3.2.5 Nitrile Latex Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 47 sets of nitrile latex devices in China, with 8 shut down, 2 under construction, and 37 in production. The total production capacity of existing devices is 2.012 million tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 1.122 million tons (55.77%), state - owned enterprises is 0.44 million tons (21.87%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 0.45 million tons (22.37%). All use the latex reactor device [38]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: Among the 2.012 million tons of in - production devices, the total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene is 0.3 million tons (14.9%), all of which are state - owned devices. The remaining 85% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with private enterprises as the main force [41]. 3.2.6 SEBS Device - **Status Analysis**: There are 15 sets of SEBS devices in China, with 3 under construction and 12 in production. The total production capacity is 460,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 70,000 tons (15.22%), state - owned enterprises is 275,000 tons (59.78%), foreign - funded enterprises is 95,000 tons (20.65%), and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - funded enterprises is 20,000 tons (4.35%). The block anionic solution polymerization method accounts for 56.52% of the production capacity [46]. - **Marginal Capacity Analysis**: All SEBS devices in China need to source butadiene raw materials externally, mainly in East and South China. The device production capacity is small and scattered [49]. 3.2.7 Nitrile Rubber Device There are 5 sets of nitrile rubber devices in China, with a total production capacity of 285,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 185,000 tons (35.09%), and state - owned enterprises is 100,000 tons (64.91%). Private enterprise devices need to source raw materials externally, while the state - owned device has self - owned butadiene raw materials [52]. 3.2.8 Styrene - Butadiene Latex Device There are 9 sets of styrene - butadiene latex devices in China, with 1 under construction and 8 in production. The total production capacity is 245,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 190,000 tons (77.55%), state - owned enterprises is 50,000 tons (20.41%), and mixed - ownership enterprises is 5,000 tons (2.04%). The latex reactor device accounts for 100% of the production capacity [57]. 3.2.9 Pyridine - Butadiene Latex Device There are 5 sets of pyridine - butadiene latex devices in China, with 1 shut down and 4 in production. The total production capacity is 165,000 tons. The production capacity of private enterprises is 145,000 tons (87.88%), and foreign - funded enterprises is 20,000 tons (12.12%). The latex reactor device accounts for 100% of the production capacity [60]. 3.3 Summary - Cis - polybutadiene rubber: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 59.36%, with state - owned devices accounting for 83%. The remaining over 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a capacity accounting for 88.12% [65]. - ABS: The proportion of in - production devices with self - owned butadiene is 25.53%, all of which are state - owned devices. Nearly 75% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a capacity accounting for 64.1%, and the remaining devices are distributed in South, Northeast, and North China [65]. - SBS: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 20.6%, with state - owned devices accounting for 65%. Nearly 80% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East and South China, accounting for 39.59% and 39.25% respectively, and the remaining devices are in Central, North, and Northeast China [65]. - Styrene - butadiene rubber: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 59.77%, with state - owned devices accounting for 94.3%. 40% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with a capacity accounting for 84.5%, and the remaining devices are distributed in South, Northeast, and Central China [65]. - SEBS: All in - production devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East and South China, with capacity accounting for 39.19% and 31.08% respectively, and nearly 30% of the capacity in Central China [66]. - Nitrile latex: The total production capacity of devices with self - owned butadiene accounts for 14.9%, all of which are state - owned devices. 85% of the devices need to source raw materials externally, mainly concentrated in East China, with private enterprises as the main force [66].

Report on Stock Index Options Market Overview 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the trading data of various stock index options on October 21, 2025, including trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), to help investors understand the market situation of stock index options. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On October 21, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1.1217 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 1.4786 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options was 1.9288 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.142 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 3.1823 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options was 0.0254 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 stock index options was 0.0798 million contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 0.2038 million contracts [1]. II. Option PCR - The trading volume PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.61, with a month-on-month change of -0.15; the position PCR was reported at 0.88, with a month-on-month change of +0.09. Similar data is provided for other types of options, showing different changes in trading volume PCR and position PCR [2]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 16.99%, with a month-on-month change of -0.90%. Similar data is provided for other types of options, indicating different changes in VIX [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic expectations are strong but the reality is weak. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and in September, exports were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. To address external pressure, China has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, while the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is affected by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is constrained by long - term supply, the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term, the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, and short - term risks in precious metals should be guarded against [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic situation: In August, China's economic data weakened, with characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption". In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The GDP in Q3 increased by 4.8% year - on - year, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in September slowed to 3% compared to August, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year. Housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month in September. The government has proposed policies to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. On October 21, the A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. The AI computing hardware sector soared, while sectors such as coal, gas, and precious metals declined [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions: As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various imported products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare earth technology and imposing special port fees on US ships. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2] - US government shutdown: On October 15, the US Republican Party's temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate. The release of multiple economic data has been delayed. The US 9 - month Markit manufacturing and service PMI decreased slightly. The market has underestimated the severity of the shutdown, and attention should be paid to its development [3] Commodity Market - Overall strategy: It is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and the risk of price fluctuations is large [4] - Black sector: Still affected by downstream demand expectations, attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - Non - ferrous sector: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - Energy sector: The medium - term supply is considered relatively loose. OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - Chemical sector: The "anti - involution" space of products such as methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention [4] - Agricultural products: Driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term, but need to wait for fundamental signals and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [4] - Precious metals: The market has overreacted in the short term, and the lease rates of gold and silver are relatively high. Short - term price fluctuations should be guarded against, and opportunities to buy on dips can be grasped in the long term [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - Stock market: On October 21, the market strengthened throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points and the ChiNext Index rising more than 3%. More stocks rose than fell, with over 4,600 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising, and the trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.02% [6] - International news: On October 21, the Japanese cabinet led by Ishiba Shigeru resigned, and Takamachi Sanae was elected as the new prime minister. European leaders signed a joint statement supporting an immediate cease - fire and peace talks, while the Russian foreign minister said the "immediate cease - fire" plan violated previous agreements [3][6] - Commodity news: On October 21, spot gold fell below $4,200 per ounce, with an intraday decline of 3.8%, the largest decline in four years [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [4]. - For the stainless - steel market, with weak demand growth, inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel (2511) opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.36% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 60,391 (- 8,453) lots, and the open interest was 50,388 (+ 2,520) lots. The main contract was about to change, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and China's strong economic resilience in Q3 were the main reasons for the strong performance of the metal sector [2]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The 1.4% nickel - ore tender of the Philippines' Eramen mine was settled at CIF43. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area was decreasing, and northern mines were mostly tendering for shipment. Downstream iron plants' profits were affected, and they maintained cautious procurement. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel - ore market remained in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season in local mining areas and production preparations for next year, Indonesian factories started raw - material procurement [3]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,900 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were basically stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained unchanged at 2,450 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel - bean premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 27,026 (+ 158) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (0) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel (2512) opened at 12,600 yuan/ton and closed at 12,665 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,078 (+ 1,298) lots, and the open interest was 188,332 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel and the metal sector, the main contract of stainless steel showed a volatile and stronger trend. The price center shifted slightly upward compared with the previous few trading days but did not break through the key resistance level. The trading volume increased moderately compared with the previous day, but short - term capital inflow was limited, and the rebound lacked real momentum [4]. - **Spot**: Downstream inquiries increased, and quotes rose slightly, but actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, and the overall trading situation improved slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 355 and 655 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 936.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the price fluctuations of upstream non - ferrous metals and energy, and also presents the latest developments in the production and service industries, as well as the current situation of different industrial chains [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Middle - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Guangdong Provincial People's Government Office issued the "Action Plan for High - quality Development of the Manufacturing Industry Empowered by Artificial Intelligence in Guangdong Province (2025 - 2027)", supporting enterprises to use various intelligent computing resources for industrial model development, promoting the construction of edge data centers, and emphasizing core software research and the synergy between AI and industrial Internet [1]. Service Industry - The Civil Aviation Administration announced the winter - spring flight schedule for 2025, starting from October 26, with domestic flight times contracting for two consecutive seasons, with a 1.0% decline in 2024 and a 1.8% decline in 2025. From October 15, global shipping giants collectively raised prices, with freight rates on multiple routes increasing by 600 - 2000 US dollars per container [1]. 2. Industry Overview Upstream - Non - ferrous metals: Gold prices have declined. Energy: International oil prices have continued to fall. Chemicals: PTA prices have slightly decreased [2]. Middle - stream - Chemicals: PX operating rate is at a high level. Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2][3]. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have declined. Services: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 21, the spot price of corn was 2180.0 yuan/ton (- 0.26% year - on - year), eggs were 6.0 yuan/kg (1.69% year - on - year), palm oil was 9306.0 yuan/ton (- 0.60% year - on - year), cotton was 14741.8 yuan/ton (0.35% year - on - year), and the average wholesale price of pork was 17.7 yuan/kg (- 2.80% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 21, the spot price of copper was 85788.3 yuan/ton (- 0.25% year - on - year), zinc was 21922.0 yuan/ton (- 1.24% year - on - year), aluminum was 20943.3 yuan/ton (0.14% year - on - year), nickel was 122850.0 yuan/ton (0.23% year - on - year), and another type of aluminum was 17075.0 yuan/ton (0.63% year - on - year) [39]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On October 20, the spot price of rebar was 3131.8 yuan/ton (- 0.29% year - on - year), iron ore was 792.9 yuan/ton (- 1.26% year - on - year), and wire rod was 3295.0 yuan/ton (- 0.68% year - on - year) [39]. - **Non - Metals**: On October 21, the spot price of glass was 14.6 yuan/square meter (- 6.82% year - on - year), natural rubber was 14516.7 yuan/ton (0.58% year - on - year), and the China Plastics City Price Index was 779.6 (- 0.75% year - on - year) [39]. - **Energy**: On October 21, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 57.0 US dollars/barrel (- 4.15% year - on - year), Brent crude oil was 61.0 US dollars/barrel (- 3.65% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas was 3820.0 yuan/ton (2.85% year - on - year), and coal was 797.0 yuan/ton (0.76% year - on - year) [39]. - **Chemicals**: On October 21, the spot price of PTA was 4369.8 yuan/ton (- 2.02% year - on - year), polyethylene was 7076.7 yuan/ton (- 0.79% year - on - year), urea was 1570.0 yuan/ton (- 0.63% year - on - year), and soda ash was 1203.6 yuan/ton (- 1.23% year - on - year) [39]. - **Real Estate**: On October 21, the national cement price index was 133.7 (- 0.80% year - on - year), the building materials composite index was 111.5 (- 0.60% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index was 91.2 (- 0.18% year - on - year) [39].