Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term weak performance under increasing supply and decreasing demand, but limited downside space [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - Due to power issues, four sets of Saudi Arabian devices had a large - scale short - stop, with a total capacity of 2.15 million tons, and are expected to resume operation within 1 - 2 weeks. Affected by this news, EG prices rose in the late trading session [1] - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1] - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure still shows a benign inventory reduction. However, after the warehouse receipts are gradually cancelled and flow out, the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented to a certain extent. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas devices are gradually restarting, and foreign ships will arrive in a concentrated manner at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the beginning of July, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the text Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1]

原油日报 | 2025-07-02 地缘冲突过后油价再次进入区间震荡阶段 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨34美分，收于每桶65.45美元，涨幅为0.52%；9月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨37美分，收于每桶67.11美元，涨幅为0.55%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.20%，报498元/桶。 2、特朗普提出的3.3万亿美元"大而美法案"周二在参议院获得通过，参议员们以51-50的票数通过法案。参议院53 名共和党议员中有3人与民主党人一起投下反对票，副总统万斯投了决定胜负的一票。法案目前已提交众议院，预 计众议院将于本周就该法案进行投票，但并不能保证成功。在民主党的联合反对下，只有少数众议院共和党人投 反对票，法案才能通过。共和党人表示，通过该法案将有助于他们在中期选举中保持国会多数党地位。但民调显 示，该法案并不特别受欢迎。一项调查发现，49%的美国人反对该法案，29%的人支持，约21%的人不确定想法。 共和党人表示，这项立法将促进经济，遏制非法移民，并开始削减医疗补助和其他福利项目的浪费。然而，许多 经济学家警告说，这项法案对经济的提振作用不大，只会加剧财政困境。（ ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-02 下游轮胎企业原料采购低迷 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14095元/吨，较前一日变动+110元/吨。NR主力合约12310元/吨，较前一日变动+120 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14000元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13950元/吨， 较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1730美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1670美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11350元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。 市场资讯 据隆众了解，进入下旬，半钢胎企业整体出货表现未有改善，国内市场进货压力较大，出口市场尚存支撑，多企 业延续控产，缓解库存增加压力。全钢胎企业表现稍显平稳，听闻，个别工厂次月有回收之前促销政策计划，短 期内或对市场拿货形成一定刺激，短期内关注其他企业价格政策动向。 据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量为10199.3万条，同比下降1.2%。 ...

市场分析 1、\t7月1日地区价格：山东市场，4570-4700；东北市场，4160-4310；华北市场，4555-4650；华东市场，4480-4650； 沿江市场，4620-4820；西北市场，4250-4400；华南市场，4650-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷585美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷540美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4607元/吨，涨36元/吨，丁烷4253元/吨，涨37元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷590美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷540美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4646元/吨，涨36元/吨，丁烷4253元/吨，涨37元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，地缘溢价大幅回落，LPG盘面重回震荡偏弱状态，市场驱动不足。昨日沙特7月CP价格下调， 对国内市场情绪存在一定利空。就当前LPG基本面而言，整体供需格局仍偏宽松，在中东断供风险消退后，海外 货源供应较为充裕，尤其美国LPG出口仍处于高位，出口终端扩建项目投产后供应增长空间进一步打开 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-02 市场分析 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 价格与基差：2025-07-01，尿素主力收盘1721元/吨（+9）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1790元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：69 元/吨（-19）；河南基差：59元/吨（-9）；江苏基差：79元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润260元/吨（-10），出口利润891 元/吨（+6）。 供应端：截至2025-07-01，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为109.59 万吨（-4.01），港口样本 库存量为38.10 万吨（+8.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-01，复合肥产能利用率30.11%（-1.71%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.21%（-1.11%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.11）。 下游工业需求弱势，复合肥进入季节性淡季，开工率仍在持续走低，预计7月中旬开始提升，三聚氰胺开工低位运 行。夏季肥市场旺季来临，农业持续适量走货为主，下游 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-02 市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3003元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3136元/吨，市场投机氛围较弱，现货市场成交情况一般偏 弱，企业刚需拿货为主，昨日全国建材成交10万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预期。 螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内制造 业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成果， 宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变 化情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪转弱，矿价震荡下行 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡下行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随 行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The current weak supply - demand pattern of PVC has not significantly improved. The supply side is under pressure due to new capacity and limited reduction, while the demand side has weak domestic demand and uncertain export prospects. The PVC market is under pressure with low valuation and lack of positive drivers. For caustic soda, the supply pressure is expected to increase, the demand support is weak, and the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has room for compression [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC main contract is 4,821 yuan/ton (-68), the East China basis is -41 yuan/ton (+68), and the South China basis is -21 yuan/ton (-22) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,780 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4,800 yuan/ton (-90) [1] - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -504 yuan/ton (-10), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -693 yuan/ton (-53), and the PVC export profit is -7.9 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] - Inventory and开工: The PVC factory inventory is 395,000 tons (-6,000), the PVC social inventory is 362,000 tons (+7,000), the PVC calcium carbide method开工 rate is 80.43% (+0.81%), the PVC ethylene method开工 rate is 67.38% (-1.85%), and the PVC开工 rate is 76.81% (+0.07%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 629,000 tons (-19,000) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH main contract is 2,358 yuan/ton (+39), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 48 yuan/ton (-70) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 770 yuan/ton (-10), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (-30) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,415 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 672.0 yuan/ton (-111.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 60.03 yuan/ton (-71.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,233.53 yuan/ton (-20.00) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 390,400 tons (+23,900), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 25,800 tons (-2,700), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 82.50% (+1.30%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 80.67% (-0.07%), the printing and dyeing East China开工 rate is 60.38% (-0.35%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 78.57% (-2.23%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The previous maintenance continued, the overall PVC开工 rate decreased slightly, but the chlor - alkali profit supported the production. The new 400,000 - ton plant of Bohua was in trial operation, and there were expectations of new capacity from Yaowang, Wanhua, and Haiwan, offsetting the maintenance losses to some extent [3] - Demand side: The downstream product开工 rate continued to decline, domestic demand was weak, and the export orders were stable with continuous growth. The extension of the BIS standard policy in India supported the export market in the short term, but the anti - dumping policy was still uncertain [3] - Inventory: The PVC social inventory stopped falling and rebounded due to sufficient supply and weak demand [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: The upstream开工 rate continued to rise, and there were plans to put into production 300,000 - ton capacities from Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, increasing the supply pressure [3] - Demand side: The main downstream alumina开工 rate was stable, the spot price continued to fall, and there were no new production cuts or maintenance in the short term. The non - aluminum downstream demand was weak, and the Shandong spot price might continue to decline [3] - Inventory: The liquid caustic soda inventory increased due to the decline in spot price and low procurement enthusiasm [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish. After the macro - sentiment eases, the PVC trend returns to the fundamentals. The supply - demand pattern is still weak, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral. The basis is gradually repaired, but the fundamentals lack positive drivers, the spot price is expected to continue to decline, and the chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has room for compression [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation in China, the US, and the Eurozone shows mixed trends, with trade - related factors and policy expectations influencing the markets. Macro - inflation trading is heating up, and investors should pay attention to specific sectors such as commodities and precious metals [1][3][4]. - The uncertainty of trade policies and the divergence between the US government and the Fed on monetary policy add to the complexity of the economic and market environment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - In China, the May data was mixed. Investment data weakened, especially in the real - estate sector, and exports were under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. The June official manufacturing PMI and other indices improved slightly, but the manufacturing PMI remained below the boom - bust line. The central bank's net injection in June was high, and attention should be paid to potential policy support from the July Politburo meeting [1]. - The US 5 - month retail sales declined significantly, mainly due to the drop in car purchases. The June Markit manufacturing PMI remained in expansion, and the price index had a large increase. The Fed is cautious about taking action on tariffs, and the "Big Beautiful" bill's passage is uncertain [3]. - The Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI reached a high level since 2018, and the June CPI met the ECB's target, providing a basis for pausing rate - cuts [2]. Trade Negotiations - The US tariff delay policy is approaching its expiration. The EU is willing to accept the "benchmark country tax" but seeks exemptions and quotas. The EU - US trade negotiation is ongoing, and the EU denies making concessions in the technology field. The UK - US trade agreement has taken effect, and Canada has canceled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations. India and the US are deadlocked in trade negotiations [2]. Policy and Legislation - The Fed plans to relax key bank capital regulations. The stable - coin legislation may be introduced in mid - July, but its prospects are unclear due to the divergence between the US government and the Fed. The US Senate has suspended the review of the "Big Beautiful" bill due to internal Republican disagreements [3]. Sector - Specific Analysis - In the commodity market, the macro - inflation trading is heating up. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and gold related to inflation expectations are worthy of attention. The black sector depends on domestic policy expectations. Anti - dumping duties on stainless steel products from certain regions will continue for 5 years. In the energy sector, the EU will extend sanctions on Russia, and the oil price is affected by geopolitical factors. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6 [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [5]. Key Data - China's June official manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, and comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points respectively from the previous month [1]. - The US 5 - month retail sales decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since March 2023 [3]. - The Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the June CPI initial value increased by 2% year - on - year [2][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the game points of Treasury bond futures are concentrated on the dual disturbances of risk preference and capital. The stock - bond seesaw effect dominates the market rhythm. The recovery of risk preference suppresses the bond market, and the rise of long - term interest rates pushes down the bond futures prices. The government bond tax payment peak and cross - month factors cause concerns about capital tightness, further suppressing the long sentiment of bond futures. However, the current domestic economic recovery momentum is still weak, so the monetary policy maintains a supportive stance and the liquidity environment is generally loose [3]. - In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate under the game between loose capital and supply disturbances. The market's focus is gradually shifting to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations. Future policy tones and external disturbances will dominate the direction of the market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 7.90%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% (-1.25%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.65, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.16 (-0.17%); the offshore US dollar against the RMB is 7.1564, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.012 (-0.17%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.23 (-13.22%); DR007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.37 (-19.32%); R007 is 1.64, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.12 (-6.66%); the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.57, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.02 (-1.02%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.07, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-1.02%) [9]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On July 1, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.49 yuan, 106.21 yuan, 109.01 yuan, and 120.74 yuan respectively, with price changes of -0.01%, 0.06%, 0.10%, and 0.28% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was -0.011 yuan, -0.048 yuan, -0.029 yuan, and -0.017 yuan respectively [2]. III. Overview of the Money Market Capital - On July 1, 2025, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tender. The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.367%, 1.530%, 1.569%, and 1.617% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to spreads are given, such as the inter - period spread trends of various Treasury bond futures varieties, and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [40]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to two - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity [46]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to five - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to ten - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [66]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data analysis content is provided in the text, only the chart names related to thirty - year Treasury bond futures are given, such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [74]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates and the fluctuation of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

农产品日报 | 2025-07-02 二育较为谨慎，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13865元/吨，较前交易日变动-5.00元/吨，幅度-0.04%。现货方面，河南地区外 三元生猪价格15.15元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.15元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+1285，较前交易日变动+155；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 15.38元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1515，较前交易日变动+115；四 川地区外三元生猪价格14.45元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09+585，较前交易日变动+105。 据农业农村部监测，7月1日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.39，比昨天下降0.10个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为112.37，比昨天下降0.11个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.20元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；牛肉63.47 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；羊肉59.27元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；鸡蛋7.16元/公斤，比昨天下降1.4%；白条鸡17.12 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.2%。 市场 ...