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液化石油气日报:国内现货价格下跌,市场驱动不足-20251210
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 03:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment strategy is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Crude oil price rebound was blocked and retraced, while the LPG outer market was relatively strong, and the high discount supported the cost of arrival. However, the domestic market was relatively weak, and the spot price mainly declined yesterday. The ether - post carbon four in East China remained in an inverted state with civil gas, which exerted certain pressure on the pricing of the futures market. Although overseas supply tightened marginally, the overall supply - demand pattern of LPG did not reverse in the medium term. The supply in the Middle East and North America would continue to grow, and the downstream chemical demand was limited by the lack of profit growth momentum, which would restrict the upside space of the market. Overall, the LPG futures market had certain short - term support, but the upward driving force was limited, and it would face pressure again after the supply recovered [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - On December 9, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4390 - 4470; Northeast market, 4140 - 4200; North China market, 4250 - 4450; East China market, 4270 - 4455; Yangtze River market, 4550 - 4890; Northwest market, 4300 - 4470; South China market, 4340 - 4550 [1] - In the first half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 596 US dollars/ton, stable, and butane was 586 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4644 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, and butane was 4566 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China was 589 US dollars/ton, stable, and butane was 579 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4589 yuan/ton, stable, and butane was 4511 yuan/ton, stable [1] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly wait and see in the short term [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]
石油沥青日报:成本端支撑转弱,市场反弹动力仍不足-20251210
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 03:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost-side support for asphalt has weakened, and the market's rebound momentum remains insufficient. The asphalt market's downside may be limited, but a bottom rebound requires more stimulating factors, waiting for the release of winter storage demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 9th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2,943 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 201,816 lots, up 6,677 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 167,841 lots, down 4,034 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,860 - 3,370 yuan/ton; South China, 2,930 - 3,150 yuan/ton; East China, 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton [2] - The rebound of crude oil prices has stalled and retraced, weakening the cost-side support for asphalt, and the futures market has been oscillating in a low range. In the spot market, asphalt prices in North China rose slightly, while those in Northwest, Shandong, East China, and South China declined. The overall asphalt fundamentals remain in a weak supply and demand situation, and future terminal demand may decline further with the cooling. The profits of refineries with quotas are relatively attractive, and local supply competition is fierce, suppressing spot prices. As the winter storage demand has not shown signs of large-scale release, market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3]
华泰期货流动性日报-20251210
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 03:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading and position - holding data of various market sectors on December 9, 2025, including trading volume, position - holding amount, trading - to - position ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - to - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position - holding volume, position - holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Plate - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume was 5117.24 billion yuan, a change of - 16.21% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 13172.08 billion yuan, a change of - 0.86% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 38.64% [1] 3.3 Treasury Bond Plate - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume was 3400.58 billion yuan, a change of - 29.40% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 7311.86 billion yuan, with no change compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 46.45% [1] 3.4 Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On December 9, 2025, the basic metals trading volume was 5699.31 billion yuan, a change of - 3.60% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 6721.31 billion yuan, a change of - 3.18% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 83.68%. The precious metals trading volume was 6975.61 billion yuan, a change of - 29.97% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 4720.89 billion yuan, a change of - 3.07% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 212.83% [1] 3.5 Energy and Chemical Plate - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume was 4343.91 billion yuan, a change of + 5.03% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 4599.41 billion yuan, with no change compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 81.00% [1] 3.6 Agricultural Products Plate - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume was 3117.11 billion yuan, a change of - 9.14% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 5943.21 billion yuan, a change of - 1.72% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 51.66% [1] 3.7 Black Building Materials Plate - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume was 2432.68 billion yuan, a change of - 13.63% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 3395.17 billion yuan, a change of - 1.93% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 73.27% [2]
美联储系列二十九:美联储或“鹰派降息”
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 09:35
期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-12-09 美联储或"鹰派降息" ——美联储系列二十九 研究院 宏观组 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号:F0299877 投资咨询号:Z0011454 宏观事件 核心观点 北京时间 2025 年 12 月 11 日凌晨 3 点,美联储将公布 12 月利率决议,并发布经济展望 报告(SEP)和利率点阵图。关注美联储是否调整 2026 年降息节奏和资产负债表政策。 ◼ 关注"鹰派降息"提供的市场空间 1)从经济增长角度,美国劳动力市场短期压力开始上升——11 月 ADP 就业单月减少 3.2 万,显示出经济动力不足的压力在上升。需要关注 12 月圣诞季消费对于预期的影响。 2)从通货膨胀角度,服务型通胀的下降已经开始趋稳,而商品型通胀的压力逐渐上升, 从核心通胀的角度,薪资增速继续强于生产力增速或削弱经济增长的动能。 3)美联储 12 月结束 QT,但 TOMO 操作量增加,市场对于美联储流动性供给增加的预 期抬升。结合财政扩张预计呈现短久期特征,美联储流动性管理或集中于短端。从时 间来看,12 月或 1 月或是相关政策预期释放的窗口,关注美联储主席 12 ...
上游原材料价格持续分化
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 05:23
Industry Overview Upstream - Copper and zinc prices have rebounded recently; chemical product prices are slightly fluctuating; international crude oil prices are rising, while liquefied natural gas prices are oscillating downward [2] Midstream - The operating rates of chemical products have collectively declined; the coal consumption of power plants is at the median level in three years; the operating rate of road asphalt has decreased [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third-tier cities have recently rebounded collectively; the number of domestic and international flights has decreased [4] Key Industry News Production Industry - Chinese official Ling Ji held video talks with German and European automobile industry associations, discussing China - Germany and China - Europe automobile industry and supply - chain cooperation, and hoping to resolve the electric vehicle anti - subsidy case [1] - On December 8, the National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in domestic gasoline and diesel prices, benefiting private car owners and logistics enterprises [1] Service Industry - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8, stating that in 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Key Industry Price Indicators (as of December 8) Agriculture - The spot price of corn is 2238.6 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.58%; the spot price of eggs is 6.5 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.76%; the spot price of palm oil is 8726.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.65%; the spot price of cotton is 15033.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.36%; the average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 0.40% [36] Non - ferrous Metals - The spot price of copper is 92243.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 3.39%; the spot price of zinc is 23100.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 2.48%; the spot price of aluminum is 21933.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.89%; the spot price of nickel is 120400.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.19%; another spot price of aluminum is 17300.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 0.84% [36] Black Metals - The spot price of rebar is 3213.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%; the spot price of iron ore is 805.8 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%; the spot price of wire rod is 3395.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [36] Others - The spot price of glass is 13.8 yuan/square meter, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.72%; the spot price of natural rubber is 14843.3 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.88%; the China Plastic City price index is 766.0, with a year - on - year increase of 0.05% [36] Energy - The spot price of WTI crude oil is 60.1 dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year increase of 2.61%; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 63.8 dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year increase of 2.20%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 3874.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.82%; the coal price is 809.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.98% [36] Chemicals - The spot price of PTA is 4687.8 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.32%; the spot price of polyethylene is 6845.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.87%; the spot price of urea is 1720.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; the spot price of soda ash is 1205.7 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [36] Real Estate and Building Materials - The national cement price index is 135.4, with a year - on - year increase of 0.01%; the building materials composite index is 115.5 points, with a year - on - year increase of 0.15%; the national concrete price index is 90.4 points, with a year - on - year increase of 0.00% [36]
股指期权日报-20251209
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 05:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various types of options on December 8, 2025. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On December 8, 2025, the trading volumes of different options were as follows: 891,200 contracts for SSE 50 ETF options; 1,041,400 contracts for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market); 1,329,500 contracts for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market); 112,000 contracts for Shenzhen 100 ETF options; 2,467,700 contracts for GEM ETF options; 39,100 contracts for SSE 50 index options; 125,400 contracts for CSI 300 index options; and 254,900 contracts for CSI 1000 options. The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes is also provided in Table 1 [1][19]. II. Option PCR - The PCR data shows the following values and changes on December 8, 2025: for SSE 50 ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.52 (a -0.16 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.08 (+0.01 change); for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), the turnover PCR was 0.50 (-0.25 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.16 (+0.03 change); for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), the turnover PCR was 0.59 (-0.23 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.25 (-0.03 change); for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.75 (-0.38 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.28 (-0.02 change); for GEM ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.44 (-0.32 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.55 (+0.15 change); for SSE 50 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.37 (-0.05 change), and the open - interest PCR was 0.74 (-0.01 change); for CSI 300 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.34 (-0.14 change), and the open - interest PCR was 0.80 (+0.02 change); for CSI 1000 index options, the turnover PCR was 0.51 (-0.21 change), and the open - interest PCR was 1.00 (+0.05 change) [2][35]. III. Option VIX - The VIX data on December 8, 2025, shows that for SSE 50 ETF options, the VIX was 14.24% (+0.55% change); for CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), the VIX was 15.66% (+0.54% change); for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), the VIX was 19.51% (+0.28% change); for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, the VIX was 19.66% (+0.55% change); for GEM ETF options, the VIX was 26.77% (-0.32% change); for SSE 50 index options, the VIX was 14.95% (+0.49% change); for CSI 300 index options, the VIX was 16.52% (+0.85% change); for CSI 1000 index options, the VIX was 19.44% (+0.29% change) [3][49].
期权吃贴水白皮书(一)
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 04:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The core pain point of the futures basis - eating strategy lies in the forced - liquidation risk and capital occupation pressure brought by leverage. In a falling market, margin calls increase capital allocation difficulty and affect investment experience [4]. - The in - the - money call option basis - eating strategy has three core advantages: no need to worry about forced liquidation and margin calls, more stable capital occupation; low time - value proportion, less impact of time - value erosion on returns; cash - settlement mechanism is suitable for long - term holding, reducing the negative impact of illiquidity [4]. - Long - term backtesting shows that the return trend of the in - the - money call option strategy is basically consistent with that of the futures basis - eating strategy, with a better maximum drawdown. The improved "optimal contract with the smallest time value" strategy boosts the annualized return by about 4.3% and reduces the maximum drawdown by about 13.4%, making the risk - return ratio more attractive [4]. - The in - the - money call option strategy performs stably in different market environments: it can capture upward returns in a bull market, reduce losses due to automatic Delta reduction in a bear market, and is less affected by time - value erosion than at - the - money options in a volatile market, suitable for diverse market scenarios [4]. Summary by Directory Preface - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures have long had significant basis. Although the futures basis - eating strategy can bring excess returns, the leverage scares some investors. The biggest risk is the falling - market risk, which may lead to margin calls and forced liquidation. It also increases the difficulty of capital allocation among different strategies [9]. - The report aims to propose an option - based basis - eating strategy to help investors better obtain basis returns [10]. Introduction to the In - the - Money Option Basis - Eating Strategy - A common option - based basis - eating idea is to buy a call option and sell a put option with the same strike price and expiration date to replicate a futures long position. However, this synthetic futures portfolio is not discussed in this report as it has no essential difference in profit - and - loss compared to the futures long position [11][12]. - Buying deep in - the - money call options can enjoy basis returns. This strategy has advantages such as no forced - liquidation risk, less impact of time - value erosion, and reduced negative impact of illiquidity. But it also has disadvantages like higher capital occupation and some negative impacts from illiquidity [12][13][16]. Long - Term Performance Comparison of Each Basis - Eating Strategy Backtest Settings - Backtest target: CSI 1000 index futures and options; backtest period: from July 22, 2022, to November 4, 2025; backtest contracts: near - month contracts for both options and futures; opening time: at the opening; trading costs: futures commission is 0.003%, option commission is 20 yuan per contract, and option slippage is 0.05% [19]. Futures Basis - Eating - Since the listing of IM, continuously rolling long the near - month IM contract can achieve an annualized return of about 9.37% (without leverage), with an excess return of about 7.39% compared to the index. The basis has deepened in recent years, and the future excess return is expected to be significantly higher than the average of 7.39% since listing [19]. At - the - Money Call Long Substitution - When using at - the - money call options to replace the futures long position, the long - term return seems better, mainly due to the significant gains during the continuous bull market in 2024. However, it underperforms in the volatile market from July 2022 to the end of 2023 because of continuous time - value erosion [23]. In - the - Money Call Option Basis - Eating - Using in - the - money call options to eat the basis, the long - term return trend is similar to that of the futures long position, but the annualized return is slightly lower due to time - value erosion and trading slippage. The maximum drawdown is improved as the directional exposure decreases during a falling market [25]. Improved In - the - Money Call Option Basis - Eating - Selecting the in - the - money call option contract with the smallest time value for opening positions can improve the annualized return by about 4.3% and reduce the maximum drawdown by about 13.4% compared to the futures basis - eating strategy. However, it may be difficult to replicate the backtest results in actual trading [30][32]. Summary - The net - value curves and risk - return indicators of each strategy are presented for reference [33]. Actual Case Analysis of Basis - Eating Bull Market - In the bull market from July to August 2025, the at - the - money call long strategy is the most suitable, with the smallest capital occupation and the largest profit. The in - the - money call basis - eating strategy and the futures basis - eating strategy have similar profit - and - loss and capital - occupation situations [40][45]. Bear Market - In the bear market from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, the at - the - money call long strategy is the most suitable due to its limited - loss feature, with small capital occupation and small losses. The in - the - money call basis - eating strategy and the futures basis - eating strategy have similar profit - and - loss, but the futures strategy has much higher capital occupation [48][54]. Volatile Market - In the volatile market in September 2025, the at - the - money call long strategy performs the worst due to high time - value erosion, with small capital occupation but large losses. The in - the - money call basis - eating strategy has smaller losses but higher capital occupation compared to the futures basis - eating strategy [57][63]. Conclusion - The in - the - money call option basis - eating strategy is a feasible and advantageous alternative to the traditional futures basis - eating strategy. It can capture basis returns under controllable risks. The improved strategy further optimizes the return performance. It is suitable for investors seeking stable basis returns and avoiding leverage risks, especially as a sub - strategy in a portfolio. Attention should be paid to option liquidity and trading slippage in actual trading [65].
原油日报:卢克石油西库尔纳油田复产,俄油到货恢复-20251209
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 03:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is currently in a chaotic phase where Russian oil buyers need to balance compliance risks and discount benefits, and the number of floating storage tanks for Russian oil is an important indicator to watch [2]. - Short - term oil price drivers are strong. The strategy is to go long on diesel cracks (event - driven) in the short term and hold a short - position in the medium term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - WTI January crude oil futures fell $1.20, a nearly 2.00% drop, to settle at $58.88 per barrel. Brent February crude oil futures dropped $1.26, a 1.98% decline, to $62.49 per barrel [1]. - The crude oil transportation from the West Qurna - 2 oilfield of Lukoil has resumed, and the site is expected to return to normal operations between 1:00 and 2:00 am. The repair of the damaged part of the oil pipeline at the West Qurna - 2 oilfield was completed around 7:30 pm local time [1]. - On December 8, Ukrainian President Zelensky held over two - hour talks with UK Prime Minister Starmer, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Merz at the UK Prime Minister's residence. The four leaders discussed a draft of the latest peace plan to end the Ukraine crisis [1]. - The US White House stated that the national average price of regular gasoline is at its lowest level in 1681 days. GasBuddy data shows that the average gasoline price in 37 states has fallen below $3 per gallon, 22 states below $2.75 per gallon, and 5 states below $2.50 per gallon [1]. Investment Logic - The recent arrival of Russian crude oil in Turkey has returned to 400,000 barrels per day, indicating that buyers may have sourced Russian oil from non - sanctioned entities. The Indian state - owned company BPCL has also resumed purchases, but the discount on Russian oil continues to decline [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Go long on diesel cracks (event - driven). - Medium - term: Hold a short - position [3]. Risk - Downside risks: OPEC significantly increases production; a macro black - swan event occurs [3]. - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens; large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3].
政策利好提振信心,股指放量上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 03:17
FICC日报 | 2025-12-09 政策利好提振信心,股指放量上涨 市场分析 重要会议释放积极信号。宏观方面,中共中央政治局召开会议,分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调,明年经济 工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,发挥存量政策和增量政 策集成效应,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,切实提升宏观经济治理效能。海外方面,美联储定于12月9日和10日 举行议息会议,市场普遍认为,美联储很可能再次降息25个基点。市场将高度关注鲍威尔新闻发布会问答环节, 以及本年度最后一份"点阵图"。 股指上涨。现货市场,A股三大指数高开高走,沪指涨0.54%收于3924.08点,创业板指涨2.6%。行业方面,板块指 数涨多跌少,通信、电子、非银金融、计算机行业领涨,煤炭、石油石化、食品饮料行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两 市成交额突破2万亿元。海外方面,美国三大股指小幅收跌,道指跌0.45%报47739.32点。 IF基差修复。期货市场,基差方面,IH、IF的贴水修复。成交持仓方面,四大期指的成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面,市场在联储货币政策会议结果揭晓前保持谨慎,美股三大指数小幅收跌。 ...
需求季节性走弱,市场震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 03:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and moderately bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR. For the 01 contract, the upside potential may be limited, and it is recommended to focus on the 05 contract in the medium to long term [3]. Core Viewpoints - The market is currently in a state of seasonal weakening in demand and is oscillating. The cost side, with Brent oil prices ranging from $60 - $65 per barrel, is affected by the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the situation in Venezuela. Market sentiment is wait - and - see, and oil prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. In the PX market, PXN has expanded to $286 per ton this week, and although some factory reforming operations may fluctuate, PX load can still be effectively maintained. For PTA, with many near - term maintenance plans and increased export demand, there is a slight reduction in inventory and a rebound in the basis. In the medium to long term, after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. In the demand aspect, the polyester operating rate is 91.8% (up 0.3% month - on - month), but the weaving load has declined, and it is expected that the operating rate will further decline from late December. For PF, the production profit is $193 per ton (down $1 per ton month - on - month), with high load and low inventory. For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is $490 per ton (up $27 per ton month - on - month), and due to the off - season demand and high social inventory, the processing fee is expected to oscillate [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Relevant figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][10]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The relevant figures are the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [26][29][30]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipts inventory, PX warehouse receipts inventory, and PF warehouse receipts inventory [34][37][38]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, and filament profit [46][48][57]. 7. PF Detailed Data - The figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][71][82]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Relevant figures are polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][94][97].