Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The "anti-involution" in the steel industry promotes high-quality development. In early 2025, national policies clearly stated the anti-involution in the steel industry, continuously regulating crude steel production and promoting the reduction and reorganization of the steel industry. Industry associations encourage enterprises to break free from homogeneous low-price competition through technological innovation and product differentiation [3][65]. - The anti-involution sentiment boosts the prices of finished products. The "anti-involution" boosts market sentiment. Coupled with the relatively healthy fundamentals of the black sector, the supply of coking coal decreased in June due to safety and environmental inspections, leading to a significant increase in coking coal prices and driving up the prices of rebar, hot-rolled coils and other varieties in the black sector [3][20][65]. - Enterprises' profits improve, and production remains at a relatively high level. In 2025, steel enterprises had good overall profitability. As of the end of August, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 60%, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. The improvement in profits enhanced the production enthusiasm of steel mills, and the daily average output of hot metal remained at a high level [3][65]. - The increase in the supply side leads to a gradual increase in the inventory pressure of finished products. Entering the traditional consumption off-season in July and August, the high profit level drove up the production enthusiasm of steel mills, and the output of hot metal and finished products remained at a high level. Without a significant increase in the consumption side, the increase in output led to inventory accumulation, and the inventory pressure gradually emerged [3][51][66]. Summary by Directory 2025 Steel Market Operation Review - In the first half of 2025, the prices of black varieties in the steel market were generally weak. In the second quarter, tariff frictions escalated, the macro market sentiment weakened further, and the prices of finished products were continuously under pressure. At the same time, due to the relatively loose supply and demand of carbon elements, prices continued to decline, further weakening the cost support for finished products and driving the price center of steel products to move down continuously [13]. - In mid-to-late June, the coking coal market bottomed out and rebounded. Affected by environmental inspections and safety production requirements, the supply of coal mines in the main producing areas declined, and the supply of carbon elements shrank. Driven by the repair of macro market sentiment and increased downstream purchases, coal mine inventories decreased, leading to an increase in coal prices, which in turn drove up the prices of black series products from their lows. In July, boosted by the "anti-involution" sentiment, coking coal prices continued to strengthen, driving up the overall prices of the black series. In mid-to-late August, as the "anti-involution" sentiment weakened, the prices of finished products fluctuated downward [13]. Steel and Upstream and Downstream "Anti-Involution" Sorting - Since early 2025, the state has clearly stated the anti-involution in the steel industry at the policy level, and industry associations have cooperated to organize meetings and establish self-discipline mechanisms. The core idea is to control production through policy guidance and industry self-discipline, promote the reduction and reorganization of the steel industry, and encourage enterprises to break free from homogeneous low-price competition through technological innovation and product differentiation, ultimately promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry [15]. - A series of "anti-involution" actions have been carried out in the steel industry, including the issuance of policies by relevant ministries and commissions and the organization of meetings by industry associations to address issues such as overcapacity and low-price competition [15][17]. Anti-Involution Sentiment Boosts, Finished Product Prices Rise - The "anti-involution" boosts market sentiment. Coupled with the relatively healthy fundamentals of the black sector and the reduction in coking coal supply due to safety and environmental inspections in June, coking coal prices increased significantly, driving up the prices of rebar, hot-rolled coils and other varieties in the black sector [3][20]. - On the one hand, downstream demand has resilience, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment maintaining growth and steel exports remaining resilient. On the other hand, the rebound in the prices of coke and iron ore at the cost end further pushed up the price center of finished products. In July, the average price of rebar in Shanghai increased by 169 yuan/ton compared to June, and the average price of hot-rolled coils increased by 152 yuan/ton [20]. Enterprises' Profits Improve, Production Remains at a Relatively High Level - In recent years, steel mills have shown greater flexibility in production decision-making, adjusting the production rhythm according to the order structure and profit level, and increasing the output of high-value-added steel products. In 2025, steel enterprises had good overall profitability, and the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 60% as of the end of August, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [32]. - The improvement in profits enhanced the production enthusiasm of steel mills. The daily average output of hot metal remained at a high level, and the weekly output of major finished products such as rebar and hot-rolled coils remained stable. The overall supply did not decline significantly during the off-season, indicating the strong production resilience of steel mills supported by profits [43]. - The daily consumption of scrap steel remained at a high level, highlighting the strong demand for raw materials in steel production. In 2025, due to the increase in profits, the high operation of hot metal and the output of five major steel products, and the continuous growth of scrap steel daily consumption, enterprises' production enthusiasm was high, the market supply was sufficient, and the overall efficiency of the industry improved significantly [45]. Supply Side Increases, Changes in Finished Product Inventory - As steel mills continued to operate at a high level, the supply of steel products increased significantly. Entering the traditional consumption off-season in July and August, the high profit level drove up the production enthusiasm of steel mills, and the output of hot metal and finished products remained at a high level. Although the demand for steel in infrastructure and manufacturing had resilience, the real estate industry continued to adjust, and the overall growth momentum of steel consumption was limited. The rapid recovery on the supply side led to a gradual increase in inventory pressure [51]. - The social and total inventories of rebar both increased, showing an accumulation trend. The social and total inventories of hot-rolled coils also increased simultaneously, and the overall inventory level of the five major steel products continued to rise [51]. Strategy - It is necessary to focus on the actual implementation of the "anti-involution" in the industry. Industries with substantial implementation are worth looking forward to in the long term [6][67].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] 2. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,465 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol was weakly consolidated, and the market negotiation was average. The weak commodity atmosphere and the planned production cut by large polyester bottle chip manufacturers suppressed market sentiment [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton, down $2/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -18 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, down 47,000 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, it was 413,000 tons, down 85,000 tons month-on-month. As of August 28, the total inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 413,200 tons, down 26,300 tons from Monday and 84,600 tons from last Thursday [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and imports are expected to increase after August. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, with increased foreign trade shipments and the gradual start of domestic sales stocking. Polyester production is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in late September. The balance sheet from August to September shows a loose balance with little supply-demand contradiction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,465 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton, down $2/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -18 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Current demand shows signs of recovery, with increased foreign trade shipments and the gradual start of domestic sales stocking. Polyester production is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in late September [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, down 47,000 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, it was 413,000 tons, down 85,000 tons month-on-month. As of August 28, the total inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 413,200 tons, down 26,300 tons from Monday and 84,600 tons from last Thursday [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The traditional consumption peak seasons "Golden September and Silver October" are approaching. The demand for PE downstream agricultural films and greenhouse films is gradually starting, and the packaging film industry is stocking up in advance. The plastic products industry is recovering with the seasonal demand growth of home appliances and automobiles. The number of PE parking and maintenance devices has increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure. However, the overall current operation is still at a relatively high level, with production enterprises accumulating inventory and upstream facing certain de - stocking pressure. The PP operation rate is flat month - on - month, and the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links has decreased slightly. New PP production capacity is continuously being released. The international oil price shows a weak trend, the oil - based production profit is acceptable, the propane price has increased slightly, and the PDH - based PP profit is near the break - even point [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trend of plastic futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as the trend of polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operation Rate - For PE, it involves LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE operation rate, PE weekly output, and PE maintenance loss. For PP, it includes PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operation rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [19][22][29] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - It covers the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][35][36] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - For LL, it includes LL import profit, the price difference between LL US Gulf FOB and China CFR, the price difference between LL Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and the price difference between LL Europe FD and China CFR. For PP, it involves PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and the price differences between PP homopolymer injection molding from different regions and China CFR [43][53][61] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operation and Downstream Profit - It includes the operation rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, and winding films, as well as the operation rates and production profits of PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, and injection molding [62][63][71] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - It includes the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [73][78][83]

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices are oscillating at the bottom with the resurgence of favorable policies. Building materials face increasing supply and demand, rising inventory, and accumulating industrial contradictions, pressuring steel prices. Plate consumption maintains toughness, with price support, but the off - season pattern remains unchanged. The release of the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Iron and Steel Industry" by five departments should be noted [1]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,129 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,385 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were generally fair, with better low - price transactions and increased purchases. The trading volume of steel on the previous day was 102,700 tons [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is oscillating weakly; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore price is oscillating upwards with a slight decline in hot metal production. With the arrival of previously high floating cargoes, iron ore supply has increased. High hot metal production ensures rigid demand, but demand will decline due to the parade. Port inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory continues to fall from a high level. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [3]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price strengthened slightly. The main 2601 contract closed at 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1.74%. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port trended strongly. Traders were fairly active in quoting, and steel mills mainly made purchases for rigid demand. The average daily hot metal production was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous period. The total inventory of 45 ports was 137.63 million tons, a decrease of 820,000 tons. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 907,000 tons, down 0.66% from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.377 million tons (10 transactions), down 13.94% from the previous day (with a mine trading volume of 850,000 tons) [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is oscillating; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Affected by macro - sentiment, coking coal and coke are oscillating within a range. With the approaching of the parade, the supply of coking coal is tightening, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The expectation of a new round of price increases for coke has cooled down, and the supply has shrunk due to environmental protection policies. The demand is cautious. In the short term, they will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of steel mills, inventory reduction of finished products, and macro - policy adjustments after the parade [6]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated within a range, with a divergence in trends. The coking coal main contract rose 0.90%, and the coke main contract fell 0.51%. The customs clearance volume of imported coal decreased, and traders were cautious. Downstream markets mainly made rigid purchases, and the overall trading volume was average [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are in an oscillating state; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The tight supply pattern remains unchanged, and the downward resistance of coal prices has increased. With the approaching of the parade, non - power industries have limited production, and power coal demand has declined from a high level. In the short term, the tight supply situation has not eased, and in the long - term, the pattern of loose coal supply remains unchanged [7]. Summary of Relevant Catalog - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices declined slightly. Frequent rainfall restricted production and sales, and downstream traders slowed down purchases. At the port, the market was quiet, and coal prices continued to fall. The port is in a de - stocking cycle, and continuous de - stocking will support coal prices. Imported coal was weakly stable, with fewer inquiries and transactions [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, the decline in industrial profits has narrowed. From January to July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the year - on - year decline in profits continued to narrow, and the manufacturing industry showed significant improvement [1]. - The service industry should focus on the implementation of housing new policies. The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, aiming to promote the construction of "good houses" and complete communities and build a new model for real estate development [1]. 3. Summary by Directory A. Upstream - Chemical industry: The price of urea has dropped significantly [2]. - Energy: The international crude oil price has slightly rebounded [2]. B. Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PTA has been continuously declining [3]. - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants has remained stable [3]. - Agriculture: The operating rate of pig products has increased [3]. C. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined [3]. - Service: As the end of the summer vacation approaches, the number of domestic flights has slightly decreased [3]. D. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price (8/28) | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2301.4 yuan/ton | - 0.43% | | | Spot price of eggs | 6.5 yuan/kg | - 2.10% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 9532.0 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15331.8 yuan/ton | 0.80% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 19.8 yuan/kg | - 1.05% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 79183.3 yuan/ton | 0.49% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22106.0 yuan/ton | - 0.49% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 20746.7 yuan/ton | 0.24% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121966.7 yuan/ton | 0.91% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16837.5 yuan/ton | 0.71% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3246.0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price of iron ore | 789.6 yuan/ton | 0.54% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3375.0 yuan/ton | - 0.52% | | | Spot price of glass | 13.9 yuan/square meter | - 0.36% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 15016.7 yuan/ton | 0.45% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 803.2 | - 0.21% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 64.2 dollars/barrel | 2.30% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 67.4 dollars/barrel | 0.90% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3956.0 yuan/ton | 1.07% | | | Coal price | 783.0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of PTA | 4910.0 yuan/ton | 2.91% | | Chemical industry | Spot price of polyethylene | 7451.7 yuan/ton | 0.20% | | | Spot price of urea | 1717.5 yuan/ton | - 3.51% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1290.0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | National cement price index | 129.6 | - 0.64% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | - | - 0.23% | | | National concrete price index | 93.0 | 0.00% | [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Soybean strategy: Neutral [3] - Peanut strategy: Neutral [3] Core View - The soybean market continues to be weak, with increasing supply - side pressure, weak demand, and a strengthened expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. The peanut market shows a situation of oversupply, with rising supply and slow - growing demand [2][3][4] Market Analysis Soybean - **Futures and Spot**: Yesterday, the closing price of the soybean 2511 contract was 3927.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 8.00 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 313, a change of + 8 (32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: Northeast soybean prices were stable, with low inventories and slow sales in grain trading enterprises. New soybean prices are not optimistic, and continuous state - reserve auctions increase supply pressure. Spot prices in various regions of Heilongjiang remained unchanged [1] - **Reasons for Decline**: Supply - side pressure increases due to continuous state - reserve auctions and approaching new soybean listings. Demand is weak, with low terminal procurement enthusiasm and strong import substitution expectations. The international market has a strengthened expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, and Sino - US trade negotiations and policy regulation also affect market sentiment [2] Peanut - **Futures and Spot**: Yesterday, the closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7802.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 2.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.03%) from the previous day. The peanut spot average price was 8420.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 298.00, a change of - 2.00 (- 0.67%) from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: The national average price of peanut general - grade old rice decreased by 0.03 yuan/jin. Rain affected peanut harvest and drying in some areas, delaying the listing progress. Downstream demand was for essential purchases, and a few oil mills bought new peanuts, providing some price support [3] - **Reasons for Price Trend**: The new peanut season increased supply, while demand growth was slow due to the macro - economic environment and consumption habits. Import volume increase in the international market and competition from other oil crops also affected peanut demand [3][4] Strategy - For soybeans, a neutral strategy is recommended, and subsequent attention should be paid to supply - side auction rhythms, new soybean listing progress, and international market supply - demand changes [2] - For peanuts, a neutral strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the risk of weakening demand [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Although the drought - affected area in the US soybean - producing areas has expanded recently, the overall proportion is still small, the drought intensity is mild, and the crop growth indicators remain at a good level, so the impact is limited. The sharp decline in international crude oil prices has depressed vegetable oil prices, but the consumption during the Double Festival will provide some support to the market [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9414.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 86 yuan and a decline of - 0.91%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8372.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 18.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.21%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9809.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 44.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.45% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9360.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 110.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.16%. The spot basis was P01 + - 54.00, with a环比 change of - 24.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8510.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 40.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 0.47%. The spot basis was Y01 + 138.00, with a环比 change of - 22.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9880.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 70.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.70%. The spot basis was OI01 + 71.00, with a环比 change of - 26.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the US soybean - planting area was affected by drought (9% the previous week and 11% last year). About 5% of the US corn - planting area was affected by drought (5% the previous week and 8% last year) [2] - The Rural Economy Department of Paraná State, Brazil (Deral) expects the soybean - planting area in the state in the 2025/26 season to be about 5.8 million hectares, a 1% increase from the previous season. The soybean yield in the state is expected to increase by 4% to about 22 million tons [2] - The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were - 189,000 tons ( - 6,000 tons the previous week), and the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 1.373 million tons (1.143 million tons the previous week). The net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were - 18,000 tons ( - 27,000 tons the previous week), and the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 2.09 million tons (2.86 million tons the previous week) [2] - According to the Canadian Statistics Bureau's model - based yield forecast report, as of the end of July 2025, the estimated yield of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is 19.9 million tons (the average estimate is 20.3 million tons, and the report in August last year was 19.5 million tons). The estimated yield of Canadian wheat in 2025 is 35.5 million tons (the average estimate is 35.9 million tons, and the report in August last year was 34.4 million tons) [2] Group 4: Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The dovish signal from Fed Governor Waller indicates that the gold and silver markets will continue to trade on the expectation of future monetary easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to show a moderately bullish trend in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and the Ag2510 contract between 9,200 yuan/kilogram and 9,600 yuan/kilogram [8][10] Market Analysis Economic Data - The annualized revised value of the US real GDP in Q2 showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised value of the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index in Q2 increased by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [1] Employment Market - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, compared to an expected 230,000, and the previous value was revised from 235,000 to 234,000 [1] Interest Rates - Fed Governor Waller supports a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the September meeting and expects further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. He believes that unless the August employment report shows a significant economic slowdown and inflation is well - controlled, there is no need for a larger - scale rate cut in September [1] Tariffs - The European Commission proposed to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products on Thursday, which is part of a trade agreement with the US. This agreement could retroactively reduce US tariffs on European cars [1] Futures Market Gold Futures - On August 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.00 yuan/gram and closed at 783.22 yuan/gram, a change of 0.26% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 783.00 yuan/gram and closed at 785.02 yuan/gram, up 0.23% from the afternoon close [2] Silver Futures - On August 28, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,287.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,377.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.77% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 337,242 lots, and the open interest was 278,545 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,390 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,405 yuan/kilogram, up 0.30% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 28, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.203%, up 0.19 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.572%, down 0.22 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange Gold - On the Au2508 contract, there were no changes in both long and short positions compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts on the previous trading day was 192,127 lots, a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day [4] Silver - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 583,887 lots, a change of 30.49% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 5.44 tons to 967.94 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 57.89 tons to 15,332.59 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Spot - Futures Price Difference - On August 28, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 12.99 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 783.07 yuan/kilogram [6] Gold - Silver Ratio - The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 83.53, a change of - 0.51% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.49, a change of 0.79% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 30,942 kilograms, a change of 13.32% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 475,098 kilograms, a change of 33.92% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 12,518 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kilograms [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC continues to be weak, with the futures price falling and the basis strengthening slightly. Supply pressure remains high in the long - term, demand is weak, social inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is poor. The export situation may weaken in the fourth quarter [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable. Supply and demand are affected by factors such as maintenance, downstream demand, and transportation restrictions. The cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4946 yuan/ton (-3), the East China basis is -266 yuan/ton (-17), and the South China basis is -156 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4680 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4790 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -64 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -223 yuan/ton (+8), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -592 yuan/ton (-52), and the PVC export profit is 16.7 US dollars/ton (+0.3) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (-2.1), the PVC social inventory is 50.8 tons (+1.5), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate is 75.24% (-0.83%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate is 68.66% (-3.78%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 73.33% (-1.69%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 72.5 tons (-6.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2692 yuan/ton (-7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 27 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 744.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 662.53 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1428.45 yuan/ton (-30.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.95 tons (-1.69), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (-0.22), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.40% (-0.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.78% (+0.14%), the East China printing and dyeing operation rate is 64.73% (+0.87%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 86.02% (-0.20%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Maintenance increases, the operation rate decreases month - on - month, but the overall operation rate is at a high level. Newly - added production capacity is gradually being put into production, and the long - term supply pressure is high [3]. - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products remains low, enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders and deliveries increase month - on - month. The export in July exceeded expectations due to pre - anti - dumping tax rush exports, but the export situation may weaken in the fourth quarter [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate and is relatively high compared to the same period. The warehouse receipt pressure of the 09 contract is large [3]. - Profit: There is still room for compression of chlor - alkali profit, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: Chlor - alkali enterprises' maintenance increases, the operation rate decreases month - on - month but is at a high level compared to the same period. The operation rate in Shandong rises slightly, but may decline slightly later due to Yantai Wanhua's maintenance [3]. - Demand side: The profit of alumina is acceptable, the operation rate is stable month - on - month, the delivery volume to alumina plants increases, and the spot price remains stable. The non - aluminum operation rate increases slightly month - on - month, but there is a fear of high - priced goods. Transportation is restricted in late August due to the parade, and factory inventory may accumulate later. The order backlog in Shandong is acceptable [3]. - Profit: The liquid chlorine price is weak, cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy - PVC: For single - side trading, take a wait - and - see approach; for inter - delivery spread trading, take a wait - and - see approach; there is no inter - variety strategy [4]. - Caustic Soda: For single - side trading, be cautiously bullish; for the SH10 - 01 spread, conduct a positive spread trading when the price difference is low; there is no inter - variety strategy [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Currently, copper concentrate trading is relatively active, but the TC price cannot continue to rebound. The downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. However, due to the market's increased expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices remain in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range approximately between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 28, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 78,820 yuan/ton and closed at 78,930 yuan/ton, a - 0.33% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main SHFE copper contract opened at 78,920 yuan/ton and closed at 78,990 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 130 - 280 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, with an average of 205 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The electrolytic copper price was 79,080 - 79,300 yuan/ton. Near the end of the month and weekend, the spot premium is expected to remain stable [2] Important Information Summary - Economic data: The annualized revised value of the US Q2 real GDP increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised value of the Q2 core PCE price index increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [3] - Employment market: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, with an expected 230,000 and the previous value revised from 235,000 to 234,000 [3] - Interest rates: Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the September meeting and expects further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months [3] - Tariffs: The European Commission proposed to cancel import tariffs on US industrial products on Thursday, part of a trade agreement with the US [3] Mine End - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted the operation of its Snow Lake copper - gold mine in Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. It is expected to resume full - load production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025 [4] Smelting and Import - The ICSG stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined increase in China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo [5] Consumption - In July, the operation of China's copper strip processing industry continued to decline. The 29 sample enterprises produced 141,800 tons of copper strips, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.1% year - on - year increase. The average capacity utilization rate was 83.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,100 tons to 157,950 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 55 tons to 21,232 tons. On August 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 127,100 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous week [6] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, recommend buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [7] Data Tables - The table shows copper price and basis data, including spot premiums, warehouse receipts, inventory, and arbitrage - related data from August 22, 2025, to August 29, 2025 [27][28][29]