农产品日报 | 2025-08-29 出栏积极性较高，猪价偏弱震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约13590元/吨，较前交易日变动-155.00元/吨，幅度-1.13%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.64元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.08元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+50，较前交易日变动+235；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.69元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差LH11+100，较前交易日变动+175；四 川地区外三元生猪价格13.43元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH11-160，较前交易日变动+155。 据农业农村部监测，8月28日"农产品批发价格200指数"为116.65，比昨天上升0.34个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为117.25，比昨天上升0.40个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.82元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；牛肉65.06 元/公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉60.41元/公斤，比昨天上升0.7%；鸡蛋7.67元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；白条鸡17.42元/ 公斤，比昨天下降1.4%。 市场分析 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the corn market is cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current soybean fundamentals have no significant changes. The Profarmer's survey shows that this year's US soybean growth is good, matching the USDA's reported record - high yield. Domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and supply is relatively loose with high future soybean arrivals. The outcome of Sino - US negotiations remains uncertain [3] - For the corn market, the supply is becoming more abundant with decreasing trade inventory in the Northeast and new corn listings. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and overall demand is lackluster [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3039 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.20%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2483 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.72%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin soybean meal was 3050 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu was 2960 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and Guangdong was 2910 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). Fujian rapeseed meal was 2580 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [1] - Arrivals: In September 2025, domestic full - sample oil mills' soybean arrivals are estimated at about 1030.25 tons [2] - Transactions: On August 27, 2025, the total soybean meal transaction of major oil mills was 9.20 tons, a decrease of 2.79 tons from the previous day. Spot transactions were 6.70 tons (up 1.01 tons), and forward - month basis transactions were 2.50 tons (down 3.80 tons) [2] - Operation Rate: The current national dynamic full - sample oil mill operation rate is 67.81%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous day [2] 2. Market News and Important Data for Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2185 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.97%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2493 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.89%) [4] - Spot: Liaoning corn was 2150 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Jilin corn starch was 2660 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Exports: Brazil is expected to export 780 tons of corn in August 2025, lower than the previous estimate but higher than last year [4] 3. Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: The US soybean growth is good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing. Future soybean arrivals are high, and the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is uncertain [3] - Corn: The supply in the domestic market is increasing, and the demand from deep - processing enterprises is weakening, resulting in insufficient upward price momentum [5] 4. Strategies - Soybean Meal: Neutral strategy [4] - Corn: Cautiously bearish strategy [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply surplus pattern of nickel remains unchanged, and with the cost approaching, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, being easily affected by macro news [3]. - For stainless steel, although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, the social inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices, the price may stop falling and rebound [4]. 3. Market Analysis Nickel - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 121,220 yuan/ton and closed at 120,990 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous trading day. It fluctuated weakly around the 20 - day moving average, with a daily fluctuation range of 930 yuan/ton, 40% smaller than the previous day. Affected by the 0.26% decline of LME Nickel 3 to $15,240/ton, Shanghai nickel followed the decline, but the decline was smaller than that of the external market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remains stable. In September, 1.3% nickel ore resources in China and Indonesia CIF42 have completed transactions. The mine - end quotation in the Philippines remains firm. The new transaction price of downstream nickel iron is 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the bullish sentiment is strengthening. The domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia in September (Phase I) is expected to drop by $0.2 - 0.3, and the premium is expected to remain at +24. The current supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and Indonesian iron plants mostly stock up as needed [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,900 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market transaction of refined nickel has improved, and the premium of each brand of refined nickel has been slightly adjusted down. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,013 (- 12.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,676 (456) tons [2]. Stainless Steel - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2510 opened at 12,825 yuan/ton and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. It showed the characteristics of falling price, shrinking volume, and a stalemate between long and short positions. The daily fluctuation range was only 105 yuan/ton, 30% smaller than the previous day. The trading volume decreased by about 13,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,188 lots, indicating a decline in market activity [3]. - **Spot**: As the futures market is still in the bottom - building process, the spot market is also weakening, and the spot quotation has been adjusted down. However, the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the transaction situation has not improved. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,025 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is also 13,025 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 320 - 470 yuan/ton [3]. 4. Strategy Nickel - **Supply - demand situation**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the cost is approaching. In the short term, nickel prices are mainly in a fluctuating market and are easily affected by macro news. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel - **Supply - demand situation**: Although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, the social inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices, the price may stop falling and rebound. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The aluminum market shows a resonance between micro and macro factors during the transition between consumption off - peak and peak seasons. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the overall non - ferrous metals are in a strong and volatile state. The supply of aluminum fundamentals is stable, and consumption is transitioning from the off - peak to the peak season. The start - up rate of downstream industries is increasing, and aluminum ingot inventory is expected to decline soon. Long - term supply is restricted, and consumption maintains stable growth [6]. - For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea supports the ore price, but domestic smelters have sufficient ore reserves and high port inventory, so the ore price lacks upward momentum. The current futures price is close to the highest full production cost and at a discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the decline rate of the spot price. There may be short - term disturbances due to the upcoming election in Guinea and potential impacts on domestic associated bauxite production [7][8]. - In the aluminum alloy market, the consumption is transitioning from the off - peak to the peak season, the smelting profit of the industry is rapidly recovering, and the supply of scrap materials remains tight. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On August 28, 2025, the SMM data shows that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,730 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium of East China aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changed by - 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On August 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,735 yuan/ton, closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,660 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 153,341 lots, and the position was 245,028 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of August 28, 2025, the SMM statistics show that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 620,000 tons, a change of 0.4 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 57,275 tons, a change of - 76 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 481,150 tons, a change of - 100 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 28, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,185 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,200 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,310 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 368 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On August 28, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,040 yuan/ton, closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, a change of - 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of - 0.10%. The highest price was 3,066 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,030 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 242,901 lots, and the position was 240,777 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 28, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 54,600 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 61,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,027 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 373 yuan/ton [5]. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, bearish on alumina with caution, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [10]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 and short AL11 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight according to the August USDA report, but the actual reduction in production needs further observation. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, supporting cotton prices in the short - term. However, due to good growth of new cotton, there will be significant hedging pressure during the centralized listing period [2]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production has issues with low cane quality, which limits the decline of raw sugar prices. In China, the expected increase in imports suppresses sugar prices in the short - term. In the long - term, it is advisable to sell high [6]. - **Pulp**: The supply of pulp remains under pressure in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The overall pulp market lacks positive drivers [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,240 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,336 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. India extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs until December 31, 2025 [1]. Market Analysis - International: The August USDA report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production is uncertain. The US cotton balance sheet is expected to improve, supporting international cotton prices. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" is over, and the Sino - US tariff truce is extended. The low commercial inventory supports cotton prices in the short - term. The impact of the sliding - scale quota policy is limited, but there will be significant hedging pressure during the centralized listing of new cotton [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate strongly before the large - scale listing of new cotton. - Medium - term: Pay attention to the demand during the peak season as there will be pressure during the centralized listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,602 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,830 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 72, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.7221 million tons, a decrease of 194,800 tons (6.67%) from the previous week [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The high sugar - making ratio in Brazil is offset by low cane quality, limiting the decline of raw sugar prices. There is limited room for a sharp rebound. - Zhengzhou sugar: The high profit of out - of - quota imports and the expected increase in imports suppress sugar prices in the short - term [6]. Strategy - Short - term: Limited room for further decline, expected to fluctuate weakly within a range. - Medium - term: There may be a tail - end rally in the fourth quarter. - Long - term: Sell high [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,002 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.16%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with only sporadic price drops [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased, and there will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. - Demand: The consumption of pulp in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. The overall demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Short - term: Pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level as the fundamentals have not improved significantly [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.8433 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.7581 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 2.199 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.1668 million contracts; the trading volume of GEM ETF options was 2.4143 million contracts; the trading volume of SSE 50 index options was 0.0692 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.1749 million contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 0.4057 million contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the previous day, such as 0.8848 million call contracts and 0.7077 million put contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, with a total of 1.5925 million contracts [18] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.57, with a month - on - month change of +0.09; the position PCR was reported at 0.93, with a month - on - month change of - 0.16. Similar data is provided for other types of options [2] - The table presents the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, position PCR, and month - on - month change of various index ETF options, e.g., for SSE 50 ETF options, the turnover PCR was 0.57 with a +0.09 change, and the position PCR was 0.93 with a - 0.16 change [28] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 24.21%, with a month - on - month change of +0.43%. Similar data is given for other options [3] - The table shows the VIX and month - on - month change values of various index ETF options, such as 24.21% VIX and +0.43% change for SSE 50 ETF options [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand situation of lead remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are continuously falling. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous metals sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 41.93 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [2] - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509/2510 contracts; in Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and some suppliers quoted a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2510 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, suppliers quoted a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead price [3] Futures Market - On August 28, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,885 yuan/ton, closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,152 lots, a decrease of 15,274 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 49,909 lots, a decrease of 6 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,925 yuan/ton and a low of 16,850 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,880 yuan/ton, closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day [2] Inventory - On August 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 28, the LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 4,975 tons from the previous trading day [2][3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The basis of pure benzene at ports has weakened, and the downstream operations of pure benzene have declined to varying degrees. The inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain and the aniline downstream MDI remains high. The pre - peak season (Golden September and Silver October) stocking is below expectations. - For styrene, the port basis rebounded slightly due to end - of - month paper cargo delivery and some traders covering short positions. However, port inventories are continuously accumulating due to high actual operations. If the September styrene maintenance is implemented, it will drag down the demand for pure benzene, and the single - side price will continue to fluctuate weakly. - Among styrene's downstream products, the operations of EPS and ABS have declined again, while PS operations continue to rise. The inventories of the three major hard - plastic products have increased, and the pre - peak season stocking is also below expectations. Styrene production profits are running weakly again [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main contract basis is - 135 yuan/ton (- 31), and the spot - M2 paper cargo spread is - 50 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Styrene: The main contract basis is 21 yuan/ton (- 49 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 148 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton), and the FOB Korea processing fee is 132 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton). The US - Korea spread is 51.6 dollars/ton (- 5.0 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 345 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually shrink [1]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 13.80 million tons (- 0.60 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream products has declined to varying degrees. For example, the caprolactam operating rate is 89.38% (- 2.48%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 179,000 tons (+ 17,500 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 84,000 tons (+ 7,500 tons), and the operating rate is 78.1% (- 0.5%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 337 yuan/ton (+ 0 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 58.35% (- 2.63%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 43 yuan/ton (+ 24 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 59.90% (+ 2.40%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 115 yuan/ton (+ 18 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 70.80% (- 0.30%) [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1,710 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the operating rate is 89.38% (- 2.48%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 514 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the phenol operating rate is 76.00% (- 2.00%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is - 216 yuan/ton (- 12), and the operating rate is 67.55% (- 2.55%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1,164 yuan/ton (+ 45), and the operating rate is 63.20% (- 2.30%) [1].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern has improved, the spot price has minor fluctuations, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment [3] - For polysilicon, the production has increased and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased, but the total inventory is still accumulating. The downstream wafer production has improved. The recent spot price has moved up, and the futures price is basically flat with the spot price after a decline. The market is greatly affected by anti - involution policies, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long term [8] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely. The main contract 2511 opened at 8530 yuan/ton and closed at 8570 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton (0.35%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 273,754 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,656 lots, a change of - 53 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (- 50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9400 - 9600 (- 50) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 (- 50) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 541,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,000 (0) yuan/ton. The prices of main silicone products were close to the enterprise cost line, and the market was in a stalemate with low - price transactions. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [2] Group 4: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 49,220 yuan/ton and closing at 49,665 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.10% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 143,912 lots (154,537 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 376,304 lots [5] - **Spot**: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 21.30 (a change of - 14.29% month - on - month), the wafer inventory was 18.05GW (a change of 3.68% month - on - month), the weekly polysilicon production was 31,000.00 tons (a change of 6.53% month - on - month), and the wafer production was 15.63GW (a change of 27.18% month - on - month) [5] Group 5: Price Information of Other Products - **Silicon wafers**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.58 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.38 (0.00) yuan/piece [7] - **Battery cells**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [7] - **Components**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [7] Group 6: Strategies - **Industrial silicon**: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the current fundamental changes are small. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment [3] - **Polysilicon**: In the short - term, conduct range trading. In the medium - to - long term, it is suitable to buy on dips. Pay attention to policy implementation and spot price transmission [8][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The communication industry is booming, and the stock index is recovering. Domestically, policies aim for high - quality urban development by 2030 and 2035. Overseas, the US Q2 GDP shows better - than - expected growth, and the number of initial jobless claims is slightly lower than expected. In the A - share market, the three major indices rebounded, with communication, electronics and other sectors rising, and coal and other sectors falling. The trading volume of the two markets was 3 trillion yuan. US stock indices also rose slightly. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined, and the trading volume increased with increased positions in IF and IM [1]. - In a bull - market expectation, market adjustments are often presented through intensified intraday fluctuations, and this feature is expected to continue until the parade. A more sufficient short - term adjustment is beneficial for the long - term market trend [2]. Summary of Sections Market Analysis - **Macro - economic situation**: Domestically, the policy is to promote high - quality urban development, with key progress by 2030 and basic completion by 2035. Overseas, the US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 229,000, slightly lower than the expected 230,000 [1]. - **Spot market**: A - share indices rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14% to 3,843.6 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.82%. The communication, electronics and other sectors led the gains, while coal and other sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the two markets was 3 trillion yuan. US stock indices rose slightly, with the S&P 500 rising 0.32% to 6,501.86 points [1]. - **Futures market**: The basis of stock index futures declined again, with near - month contracts in contango. The trading volume of stock index futures increased, and the positions of IF and IM increased [1]. Strategy - Market adjustments are likely to continue to show intensified intraday fluctuations until the parade. A more thorough short - term adjustment is favorable for the long - term market [2]. Chart References - **Macro - economic charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends [4][5]. - **Spot market tracking charts**: Present the daily performance of major domestic stock indices, trading volume of the two markets and margin trading balance [4][5][12]. - **Stock index futures tracking charts**: Provide data on the trading volume, positions, basis and inter - period spreads of stock index futures [4][5][14].