Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the zinc market have shifted from previously negative to positive. The current zinc valuation is low, and there is optimism about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The zinc market is expected to perform well [5]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $166.73 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price changed by 60 yuan/ton to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price changed by 70 yuan/ton to 23,100 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price changed by 60 yuan/ton to 23,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On December 9, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,250 yuan/ton and closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 129,703 lots, and the position was 101,254 lots. The highest price was 23,255 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,005 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of December 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 136,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 58,150 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis The TC of the zinc ore end continues to decline. With the absolute price falling from a high level, the losses of smelters have expanded. The raw material inventory of smelters is still decreasing, and their procurement enthusiasm remains high, which may lead to a continuous decline in TC. The smelting enthusiasm has significantly declined, and the smelting output has decreased month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. The consumption end maintains strong resilience, the social inventory has continued to decline, the spot premium has shown a stable and positive performance, and the discount of the near - month contract has narrowed to par. The LME inventory remains at a low level, the spot premium is relatively high, and the export window remains open [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish. - **Arbitrage**: Calendar spread positive arbitrage [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 盘面价格下跌氧化铝仓单成交平平 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21880元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-90元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21740元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-230元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21770元/吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-200元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-09日沪铝主力合约开于22210元/吨，收于--元/吨，较上一交易日变化-370元/吨，最高价 达22210元/吨，最低价达到21735元/吨。全天交易日成交255735手，全天交易日持仓195726手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.1万吨，仓单库存67863 吨，较上一交易日变化127吨，LME铝库存523300吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-09SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2740元/吨，河南价格录得 2820元/ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [3][4][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - The market lacks obvious drivers, and each commodity sector is experiencing overall fluctuations. The prices of cotton, sugar, and pulp are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and external market conditions [1][2][3][6][7] Group 3: Cotton Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,740 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,843 yuan/ton, a change of -4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1103, a change of +6 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,999 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1259, a change of +0 from the previous day [1] - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.12% and a month-on-month increase of 7.22%. From January to November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 267.795 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.91% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with large short-term supply pressure, and the global textile terminal consumption is still weak. In the long term, the US cotton is in a low-valued range, with limited further downward space, but the upward drive is not clear [2] - Domestically, the cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to continue to increase. With the end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, the cotton production forecast has risen again. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton will still be suppressed by hedging orders. On the demand side, the downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the finished product inventory pressure is acceptable, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, with the expansion of downstream production capacity, the domestic cotton consumption has increased, and the supply and demand in the new season are not expected to be too loose. After the seasonal pressure, the cotton price can be viewed optimistically. Attention should be paid to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 4: Sugar Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5343 yuan/ton, a change of +6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5410 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 67, a change of -6 from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5345 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 2, a change of -6 from the previous day [3] - Brazil exported 817,500 tons of sugar in the first week of December, with an average daily export volume of 163,500 tons, a 21% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 134,900 tons in December of the previous year [3] Market Analysis - The global sugar production surplus continues to suppress the market, but the current negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. In the short term, the downward space of the international sugar price is limited, but there is no sign of a reversal. In the long term, it depends on the weather and the policies of major producing countries next year [3] - Domestically, the sugar production is expected to continue to increase for the third year. The sugar mills in Guangxi have started to crush sugar, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota is still high, and the import volume from July to October has increased, increasing the supply pressure [3] Strategy - The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills have the intention to support the price at the beginning of the crushing season. The short-term downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but attention should be paid to the disturbance of the capital side to the market, and there is a possibility of a new low [4][5] Group 5: Pulp Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5386 yuan/ton, a change of -6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 114, a change of +6 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5005 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 381, a change of +6 from the previous day [6] - The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some showing a weakening trend. The trading in the market was light, and the prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - On the supply side, there have been continuous news about overseas pulp mills shutting down for maintenance. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill in Canada, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down [7] - On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased significantly in October, indicating some improvement in demand. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand has been insufficient, the paper mills' operating rate is not high, and the overall output of finished paper has not increased significantly. The raw material procurement mentality of downstream paper mills is cautious, and the procurement willingness is generally low, resulting in the domestic port inventory still being at a historical high [7] Strategy - Due to the previous negative factors being gradually digested by the market, affected by short-covering and overseas supply disturbances, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently. However, due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply and demand situation, the upward space of the pulp price may be limited. Attention should also be paid to the disturbance of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts to the market [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is supported by a tightening supply of grain at the grassroots level, with farmers' remaining grain generally only 2 - 30% and strong reluctance to sell. The main constraint on the spot market is the logistics issue. The peanut market shows a stable - to - strong price trend due to farmers' reluctance to sell in some areas, but the overall price fluctuation is limited, and the strict acquisition indicators of oil mills cannot boost the market [3][5] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the soybeans No.1 2601 contract was 4089.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan/ton or 0.10% from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A01 + 11, down 4 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] Market Information - The new - season soybean spot prices in the Northeast production area are rising, with an increase of 30 - 80 yuan/ton. The actual soybean purchase and sales are slow, and the tower - grain prices are stable. The future soybean trend depends on downstream consumption [2] Market Trends - The main soybean futures contract rebounded slightly. The core support for the soybean market is the tightening of grassroots grain sources. As the traditional pre - Spring Festival grain - purchasing period approaches, farmers are reluctant to sell, making it difficult for traders to buy grain. The impact of soybean auctions on the spot market is minimal. The spot price is strong, and the main constraint is the logistics problem [3] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the peanut 2601 contract was 8060.00 yuan/ton, up 42.00 yuan/ton or 0.52% from the previous day. The peanut spot average price was 8182.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 + - 1260.00, down 42.00 or 3.45% from the previous day. The national average price of peanut general - quality rice was 4.09 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin [4] Market Trends - The main peanut futures contract fluctuated sideways. Some farmers in the Northeast and Henan are reluctant to sell again, leading to a stable - to - strong peanut price. Traders are cautious in purchasing. In some regions, the sales situation varies. The overall peanut price fluctuation is small, and there may be a slight increase in some areas. The strict acquisition indicators of oil mills cannot boost the peanut market [5] Strategies - For soybeans, the strategy is neutral [3] - For peanuts, the strategy is also neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3,691 yuan/ton (a change of -10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.27%), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,646 yuan/ton (a change of -44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.19%). The spot basis of EG in East China was -11 yuan/ton (a decrease of -2 yuan/ton month-on-month). Recently, Sanjiang reduced its load, and Xinjiang Zhongkun planned to carry out maintenance, both of which were unplanned. As a result, the EG load decreased, and the price rebounded after a decline [1] - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$90/ton (a decrease of -$5/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -1,138 yuan/ton (a decrease of -29 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 819,000 tons (an increase of 66,000 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 719,000 tons (an increase of 11,000 tons month-on-month). According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 163,000 tons, and the arrivals at the auxiliary ports were 51,000 tons; this week, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 155,000 tons, and the arrivals at the auxiliary ports are 20,000 tons, which is relatively high overall. It is expected that the inventory at the main ports will continue to accumulate [2] - On the supply side, as the maintenance is implemented, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from its high level, and the short-term supply pressure has been alleviated. However, high supply will resume in January. In the future, attention should be paid to the new maintenance situation of ethylene glycol plants after the price decline. In terms of overseas supply, the supply of Middle Eastern goods is at a high level, and there are many long-distance cargo arrivals within the month. The port inventory will still show an upward trend in the first half of the month. On the demand side, the polyester load remains firm at a low inventory level, but the orders are gradually weakening [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3,691 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,646 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China was -11 yuan/ton [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$90/ton, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -1,138 yuan/ton [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 819,000 tons, and according to Longzhong data, it was 719,000 tons. The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports are relatively high, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to continue to accumulate [2]

化工日报 | 2025-12-10 下游订单一般，刚需采购为主 2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新 的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达 58,664万条，同比增长4%。1-10月汽车轮胎出口量为685万吨，同比增长3.3%；出口金额为1158亿元，同比增长2.1%。 2025年10月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量51.08万吨，环比减 少14.27%，同比减少0.9%，2025年1-10月累计进口数量522.81万吨，累计同比增加17.27%。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前三个季度，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为199.3万吨，同比降8%。其 中，标胶合计出口111.6万吨，同比降20%；烟片胶出口30.8万吨，同比增22%；乳胶出口55.6万吨，同比增10%。 1-9月，出口到中国天然橡胶合计为75.9万吨，同比增6%。其中，标胶出口到中国合计为45.9万吨，同比降19%； 烟片胶出口 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-10 供强需弱格局延续，聚烯烃连续走跌 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（-86），PP主力合约收盘价为6192元/吨（-83），LL华北现货为6600 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为6750元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6310元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为43元/吨（+66），LL 华东基差为193元/吨（+86）， PP华东基差为118元/吨（+83）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.1%（-0.5%），PP开工率为77.6%（-0.5%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为239.2元/吨（+37.0），PP油制生产利润为-440.8元/吨（+37.0），PDH制PP生产利 润为-681.7元/吨（-113.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为1.2元/吨（-58.1），PP进口利润为-226.1元/吨（+46.9），PP出口利润为-17.7美元/吨（+4.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为48.1%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.2%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOP ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-10 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润575元/吨（-15）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1980元/吨（-15），内蒙北线基差514元/吨（+8），内蒙南线1950元/吨（-50）；山东临沂2222元/吨（-8），鲁 南基差356元/吨（+15）；河南2110元/吨（+0），河南基差244元/吨（+23）；河北2125元/吨（-50），河北基差319元/ 吨（-27）。隆众内地工厂库存361320吨（-12392），西北工厂库存205000吨（-4000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单239715 吨（+9005），西北工厂待发订单128500吨（+15000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2075元/吨（-5），太仓基差9元/吨（+18），CFR中国242美元/吨（+1），华东进口价差-25元/吨 （-13），常州甲醇2325元/吨；广东甲醇2065元/吨（-10），广东基差-1元/吨（+13）。隆众港口总库存1349430吨（-14070）， 江苏港口库存703300吨（-44700），浙江港口库存235500吨（+46000），广东港口库存25 ...

需求端：截至2025-12-09，复合肥产能利用率40.53%（+3.47%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.66%（+0.86%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.35日（+0.70）。 尿素日报 | 2025-12-10 低价成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-09，尿素主力收盘1643元/吨（-3）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1680 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1690元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1680元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：47 元/吨（+3）；河南基差：37元/吨（-7）；江苏基差：37元/吨（-7）；尿素生产利润160元/吨（+0），出口利润878元/ 吨（+19）。 供应端：截至2025-12-09，企业产能利用率81.82%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为129.05 万吨（-7.34），港口样本 库存量为10.50 万吨（+0.50）。 尿素现货价格松动，部分地区低价成交好转，持续性待观察。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐开始，前期煤头企 业检修逐步恢复，目前2025年新增产能全部投产，尿素供应量不减。需求端当前淡储采购进行中，复合肥东北 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [8] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, domestic copper inventories increased due to high copper prices, wide monthly spreads, and cautious downstream procurement. Next week, with some delivery goods flowing out, it's difficult to maintain high premium levels. With limited new downstream orders, inventories are expected to increase slightly. Given the rapidly changing macro - factors and the market's digestion of the US reaching trade agreements with multiple countries, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,000 yuan/ton - 79,500 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On December 9, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 92,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 91,090 yuan/ton, a - 2.02% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the night - session was 91,630 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 91,070 yuan/ton, a 1.13% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot quotation of SMM electrolytic copper was at a premium of 10 - 180 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 95 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The price range of 1 electrolytic copper was 91,780 - 92,650 yuan/ton. High copper prices restricted downstream consumption, and the overall trading was light. The spot premium is expected to weaken further [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summaries - **Macro and Geopolitical**: On May 20, major domestic banks adjusted RMB deposit interest rates. The current deposit rate was lowered by 0.05 percentage points to 0.05%, and the fixed - deposit rates for various terms were lowered by 0.15 - 0.25 percentage points [3]. - **Mine End**: On December 9, Anglo American and Canada's Teck Resources launched a shareholder vote on their $53 - billion merger. If approved, the new entity's annual copper production capacity will reach 1.35 million tons, ranking among the world's top five copper producers [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: As of December 8, there were 14,800 resource - recycling enterprises using "reverse invoicing", with a reverse - invoicing amount of nearly 900 billion yuan this year. In the first 10 months of 2025, the domestic scrap - car recycling volume increased by over 50% year - on - year [5]. - **Consumption**: In November 2025, China's copper - tube production was 138,300 tons, a 13.55% increase from October. The overall capacity utilization rate was 59.69%, a 7.12% increase. The increase was due to more production days, the "Double Eleven" promotion, and concentrated project deliveries [6][7]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,000 tons to 165,675 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 425 tons to 29,531 tons, and the domestic electrolytic - copper spot inventory was 160,300 tons, a change of 1,400 tons from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Strategy - **Copper**: Maintain a neutral stance. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate between 75,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Suspend [8]. - **Options**: Short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Data Tables - **Copper Price and Basis Data**: Includes spot premiums, various copper prices, LME (0 - 3) spreads, inventory, warehouse receipts, LME注销仓单 ratios, and arbitrage data [26][27][29][30].