1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market still faces resistance after a rebound, and the external market price has declined again. The domestic mainstream price dropped, downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the trading atmosphere was light. Overseas supply is relatively abundant with potential for further growth, and domestic supply remains ample. With the recent temperature drop, the combustion end makes purchases at low prices, and the change in deep - processing demand is limited. After the October CP price cut and the decline in import costs, chemical profits are expected to improve marginally, and the price advantage of LPG over naphtha may provide some support for the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 20, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4050 - 4090; Northeast market, 3910 - 4210; North China market, 4050 - 4450; East China market, 4155 - 4260; Yangtze River market, 4470 - 4730; Northwest market, 4100 - 4200; South China market, 4390 - 4498 [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 529 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton, and butane was 534 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4133 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan/ton, and butane was 4172 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 523 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton, and butane was 528 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4086 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan/ton, and butane was 4125 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, with a short - term recommendation to stay on the sidelines [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand weakness pattern of asphalt continues. After the sharp drop in oil prices, refinery profits are relatively attractive, and the supply side may have greater elasticity. In terms of demand, affected by cold air in the north, the temperature has dropped significantly, the rigid demand for asphalt is weak overall, and there is a lack of positive driving factors in the market. Short - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On the afternoon of October 20th, the closing price of the main BU2601 asphalt futures contract was 3141 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a rise of 0.01%. The open interest was 167,705 lots, a net increase of 14,182 lots compared to the previous period, and the trading volume was 160,007 lots, a decrease of 3,854 lots compared to the previous period [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3506 - 4086 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3300 - 3670 yuan/ton; South China: 3350 - 3550 yuan/ton; East China: 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions continued to fall yesterday, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [1] - Crude oil and asphalt futures continued to be weak, which had a negative impact on the sentiment of the asphalt spot market [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, short - term recommendation to stay on the sidelines [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in various regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral, main contract), domestic weekly asphalt production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Core Viewpoints - For the soybean meal market, the current supply is sufficient, with low - level oscillations. The high export volume from Brazil has put pressure on CBOT soybean prices and increased domestic supply, and the supply is expected to remain loose. Future market focus lies on policy changes and the import situation of new - season US soybeans [1][3] - In the corn market, the new - season corn in domestic northeast and north China regions is being concentratedly supplied. The supply exceeds demand, and the new - grain price is low. Attention should be paid to national policies [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2895 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (+0.94%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2350 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (+1.91%) [1] - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2560 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1] - Overseas Information: As of October 17, Brazilian farmers have planted 23.27% of the expected soybean area for 2025, compared with 9.33% in the same period last year. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated at 18 million hectares, an 8.4% increase from the previous year, and the production is expected to be 51.1 million tons, a 6% increase from 2023/24 [2] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2138 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.99%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.25%) [4] - Spot: The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Overseas Information: As of October 13, French farmers had harvested 56% of this year's grain corn crop, up from 37% a week ago, and the excellent - good rate was 60%, down from 62% a week ago [4] Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Although the US Department of Agriculture has not released the latest data, Brazil's good export situation has put pressure on CBOT soybean prices. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the supply is expected to remain loose. Future focus is on policy changes and the import of new - season US soybeans [3] Corn - In the domestic market, the new - season corn in the northeast and north China regions is being concentratedly supplied. The supply exceeds demand, and the new - grain price is low. Attention should be paid to national policies [6] Strategy - The strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] Core View - Trump will not provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and tries to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict through diplomatic means. His inconsistent stance on the conflict without substantial pressure on Russia is an uncertainty in the oil market. His attempt to persuade India and Turkey to reduce Russian oil purchases through verbal pressure has limited effect. The future of the Russia-Ukraine situation depends on the outcome of the Putin-Trump meeting [2] Market News and Key Data - On a certain day, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2 cents to $57.52 per barrel, a 0.03% decline; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery in London fell 28 cents to $61.01 per barrel, a 0.46% decline; the main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.16% at 438 yuan per barrel [1] - The European Council announced that EU member states' energy ministers approved a proposal to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028. The EU will gradually stop importing Russian natural gas under new contracts from January 2026, existing short-term contracts will end in June 2026, and long-term contracts will end in January 2028 [1] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange approved an increase in the available storage capacity of Dalian Northern Oil Products Storage Co., Ltd. from 100,000 cubic meters to 200,000 cubic meters [1] - Colombia recalled its ambassador to the US after Trump accused Colombian President Petro of condoning drug production, announced a suspension of all subsidies to Colombia, and planned to impose additional tariffs. Colombia's foreign ministry condemned Trump's remarks as a threat to its national sovereignty [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine's natural gas infrastructure was severely damaged by Russian attacks. Ukraine may import about $2 billion worth of natural gas this winter from Europe, the US, and Azerbaijan. In the future, Ukraine may cooperate with US companies to build its own LNG receiving terminals [1] Strategy - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile; Medium-term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black swan events occur [4] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large-scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [4]

策略 尿素日报 | 2025-10-21 尿素9月出口137万吨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-20，尿素主力收盘1600元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1550 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-50 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-50元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：-40元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（-10），出口利润983元 /吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-20，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-20，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，再次小幅下调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行 中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 氧化铝难见好转，铝出口依旧偏乐观 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20930元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价20810元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-110元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20820元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-100元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-20日沪铝主力合约开于20935元/吨，收于20910元/吨，较上一交易日变化-80元/吨，最 高价达20970元/吨，最低价达到20890元/吨。全天交易日成交107222手，全天交易日持仓231673手。 库存方面，截止2025-10-20，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.2吨，仓单库存69947 吨，较上一交易日变化-723吨，LME铝库存487125吨，较上一交易日变化-4100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-10-20SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2875元/吨，山东价格录得2835元/吨，河南价格录得 2895元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth highlights. On the supply side, the processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some areas is also tight. As a result, the lead price is currently in a range-bound pattern, with an expected trading range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On October 20, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.85/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,925 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On October 20, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,075 yuan/ton and closed at 17,060 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27,656 lots, a decrease of 11,986 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 38,195 lots, a decrease of 2,023 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 17,055 - 17,155 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,130 yuan/ton and closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 0.58% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 20, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 20, the LME lead inventory was 247,300 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy Overall Strategy - Maintain a neutral view on the lead market, expecting the lead price to fluctuate between 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] Option Strategy - Recommend selling a wide strangle [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [4][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of soybeans is tight, and the futures price of soybeans reached a new high in the current period. The new soybeans in the Huanghuaihai region are expected to be slowly launched, and the harvest and launch of new soybeans in the southern region are generally delayed. For peanuts, the futures price fluctuated downward, with stable supply in the Northeast. The market should focus on the actual supply progress and quality of summer-sown peanuts in Henan and Shandong, and also pay attention to whether the oil mills' procurement can support the price later [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 4086.00 yuan/ton, up 58.00 yuan/ton or 1.44% from the previous day. Spot: The basis of edible soybeans was A11 - 46, down 58 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] Market Information Summary - The new-season soybean harvest in the Northeast is almost finished. Grain trading enterprises are actively purchasing, and high-protein soybeans are in high demand. The prices of low-protein common soybeans range from 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein soybeans are 1.9 yuan/jin, and over 40% protein soybeans are 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. The prices of tower grains vary according to protein content. The prices of standard first-class medium-grained tower grains in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable compared to the previous day [2] Market Situation - The futures price of soybeans reached a new high. Affected by the southern production reduction, the market sentiment in the Northeast was high, and high-protein soybeans had a strong upward trend. The Huanghuaihai region was in a state of supply shortage, and new soybeans were expected to be launched slowly. Continuous rainfall in the South delayed the autumn harvest, and the large-scale launch of new soybeans was postponed. In some areas, the wet surface farmland ratio exceeded 50%, and the limited number of drying towers exacerbated the tight spot circulation [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2511 contract yesterday was 7958.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day. Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis was PK11 + 242.00, down 30.00 or 11.03% from the previous day [4] Market Information Summary - The average price of common peanuts in the national market was basically stable at 4.18 yuan/jin. The prices in different regions varied, and the supply was scarce in some areas. The contract procurement prices of oil mills for common peanuts were 8200 - 8300 yuan/ton, and for oil peanuts were 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in arrivals [4] Market Situation - The peanut futures price fluctuated downward. The supply in the Northeast was stable with obvious quality advantages, and the market mainly purchased Northeast peanuts. With the improvement of weather in Henan and Shandong, the supply of summer-sown peanuts was expected to increase. Currently, the demand support was limited, and attention should be paid to whether the oil mills' procurement can support the price later [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable, with inventory continuously decreasing and the futures market having some support. It is expected that the short - term futures market will fluctuate. However, if the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens, the market may decline [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On October 20, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 76,260 yuan/ton and closed at 75,700 yuan/ton, with a - 0.08% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 169,108 lots, and the open interest was 138,434 lots (159,000 lots the previous day). The basis was - 1,960 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 30,705 lots, an increase of 19 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 - 74,500 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,150 - 72,350 yuan/ton, also up 650 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 860 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factory's operating rate is continuously rising, and demand supports spot transactions. New production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to continue to grow. The power market for new energy vehicles (both commercial and passenger) is growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. Import and Export Data - In September 2025, China imported 19,597 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. 11,000 tons were imported from Chile (55% of the total), and 6,948 tons were imported from Argentina (35% of the total). Exports were 151 tons, a 59% month - on - month decrease and a 9% year - on - year decrease [2]. - In September 2025, China imported 710,600 tons of spodumene, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was 5.576 million tons, a 37% year - on - year increase [2]. Strategy - The futures market showed a weak and slight fluctuation on the day. Lithium ore imports increased significantly, lithium salt imports decreased slightly month - on - month, and overall imports were relatively good. The rapid reduction of warehouse receipts slowed down, and warehouse receipts began to increase slightly. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern is good, and the market is expected to fluctuate. After the mining end resumes production and consumption weakens, the market may decline [3]. - For single - side trading, short - term range operations are recommended. If the market rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3].

农产品日报 | 2025-10-21 二育入场支撑，猪价短期偏强 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约12155元/吨，较前交易日变动+485.00元/吨，幅度+4.16%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格11.58元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.31元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-575，较前交易日变动-185；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 11.56元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH01-595，较前交易日变动-365；四 川地区外三元生猪价格10.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH01-1275，较前交易日变动-435。 据农业农村部监测，10月20日"农产品批发价格200指数"为120.13，比上周五上升0.37个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为121.28，比上周五上升0.44个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.72元/公斤，比上周五下降1.7%； 牛肉66.14元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；羊肉61.76元/公斤，与上周五持平；鸡蛋7.48元/公斤，比上周五下降0.5%； 白条鸡17.57元/公斤，比上周五下降0. ...