1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The market risk sentiment has grown as the Israel-Iran conflict eases. The expectation of a looser Fed monetary policy mainly affects risk assets, causing the gold price to fluctuate downward. In the long term, the real interest rate is likely to decline. Gold remains an irreplaceable investment if the expansion of the US fiscal and debt scale persists. For gold, short - term trading can be done by selling high and buying low between 740 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and long - term positions can be lightly established based on the 740 yuan/gram level. For silver, it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 8,640 yuan/kg to 8,660 yuan/kg with a stop - loss at 8,620 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US economic data is poor. The Chicago business activity index in June dropped slightly to 40.4 from 40.5 in May, lower than the expected 43.0, the lowest since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic activity contraction. The Dallas Fed business activity index contracted for the fifth consecutive month. Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut this year and three next year. Goldman Sachs advanced its prediction of the Fed rate cut to September. Trump criticized the Fed, and there are speculations about Powell's successor [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On June 30, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 764.10 yuan/gram and closed at 767.58 yuan/gram, up 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 211,285 lots, and the open interest was 155,821 lots. In the night session, it opened at 766.18 yuan/gram and closed at 768.98 yuan/gram, up 0.54% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,716 yuan/kg and closed at 8,762 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 504,424 lots, and the open interest was 277,702 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,737 yuan/kg and closed at 8,722 yuan/kg, up 0.10% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, with a change of 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.52%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 129 lots and the short positions by 52 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 398,616 lots, up 4.72% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 10 lots and the short positions decreased by 1,436 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 949,707 lots, down 13.39% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,826.61 tons, down 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On June 30, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 9.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 553.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 87.60, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.86, with a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,766 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 487,620 kg, with a change of 2.21% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,240 kg [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The settlement price for the June contract is determined, and attention should be paid to Maersk's first - week quotation in the second half of July. There is a possibility that the freight rate peaked in the first half of July, and the EC2410 contract in the off - season can be sold for hedging when the price is high [1][3][5] - Geopolitically, China will accelerate rare - earth exports to the US, and the US will cancel a series of restrictive measures against China. The freight rates on the US routes are stabilizing after a decline from their high levels [2] - The freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe routes are in a state of correction in the first half of July, and there is a game about when the freight rate will peak in the August contract [4][5] - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries [7] - The trading strategy includes a volatile main contract in the unilateral market and a long - December, short - October strategy in the arbitrage market [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 1, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 86,515 lots, and the daily trading volume is 46,152 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1307.80, 1169.80, 1888.50, 1761.40, 1339.00, and 1500.00 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On the online quotation for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route: Maersk's price in the second week of July is 1740/2900 (down $200/FEU from the previous period and now up to 1770/2960); HPL's quotation for the first half of July is 2035/3235, and for the second half is 2435/3835. Other shipping companies also have corresponding quotations [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the second week of the first half of July is 1586/2245 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price is $4120/FEU (compared to $6410/FEU in the first half of June) [2] - The SCFIS on June 16, 23, and 30 are 1697.63, 1937.14, and 2123.24 points respectively, and the June contract settlement price is 1919.34 points [3] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - European base port route in July is 261,900 TEU, and in August is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July and 2 in August. The decrease in capacity in July is mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route [3] - As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU and 6 ships over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain No specific content for in - depth summary is provided other than the list of related figures. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific content for in - depth summary is provided other than the list of related figures.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market is gradually entering the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, and the rising prices have stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm, showing a "buying on the rise" characteristic. The improvement in macro sentiment and the spillover of risk sentiment will benefit lead prices to some extent [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$22.14/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,105 yuan/ton, closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,321 lots, a decrease of 8,329 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 51,408 lots, a decrease of 392 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,220 yuan/ton and a low of 17,095 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,170 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On June 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of June 30, the LME lead inventory was 271,925 tons, an increase of 175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, consider buying on dips between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at a strike price of 16,500 yuan/ton [3]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-01 终端需求偏弱，现货观望情绪浓厚 市场分析 1、6月30日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3564元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨5元/吨，涨幅 0.14%；持仓235183手，环比下降2094手，成交165052手，环比上涨10908手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4030元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日西北以及华南市场沥青现货价格大体企稳，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌，沥青盘面则延续震 荡态势，成本端支撑随地缘局势缓和而边际转弱。就沥青自身基本面而言，多空因素交织，缺乏突出矛盾。具体 来看，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后，炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂生产积极性 增强，或带动沥青产能利用率增加。与此同时，天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求缺乏亮点，情绪仍较为谨 慎，整体市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, and there is no rating for inter - period investment [3] Core View - The international oil price and propane price continue to be weak, so the cost - side support for polyolefins is weak [2] - The supply has slightly increased due to the return of previously shut - down maintenance units and the successful commissioning of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP unit. However, petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional maintenance season, and future inventory unit maintenance will be intensive, which will relieve some of the pressure from new supply [2] - The downstream is in a seasonal off - season with limited demand boost. The agricultural film industry is at a low level of operation, and other terminal industries are also operating weakly. Rigid demand for restocking is expected to be weak [2] - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7,261 yuan/ton (- 41), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,070 yuan/ton (- 33), the LL North China spot price is 7,240 yuan/ton (- 30), the LL East China spot price is 7,350 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PP East China spot price is 7,160 yuan/ton (- 20), the LL North China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+ 11), the LL East China basis is 89 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the PP East China basis is 90 yuan/ton (+ 13) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and the PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%) [1] - The PE oil - based production profit is 358.8 yuan/ton (- 7.5), the PP oil - based production profit is - 51.2 yuan/ton (- 7.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 268.5 yuan/ton (+ 156.7) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific price difference data is provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 58.3 yuan/ton (- 5.8), the PP import profit is - 314.6 yuan/ton (- 49.0), and the PP export profit is 22.0 US dollars/ton (+ 0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading. Attention should be paid to whether the bottle chip production reduction plan under the previous high raw material prices can be fulfilled after the raw material prices decline. The PX fundamentals remain tight, and the spot floating price remains strong. Macro factors such as the OPEC+ meeting in July and the expiration of the tariff extension period need to be monitored, as well as the repeated risks at the geopolitical end [1] - After the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts in the short term. Affected by the low inventory in Cushing, the delivery location, the structure remains strong, and the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation has not changed. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than that of the supply side, and the market is expected to enter a state of oversupply, with a bearish medium - term market driver [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the United States has retraced again recently. With the background of new energy substitution, the upside potential of the gasoline cracking spread is limited. The domestic and foreign intermittent blending demand can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool. Since March, the export of aromatic blending materials (toluene + MX + PX) from South Korea to the United States has decreased significantly. Recently, attention should be paid to the resumption of short - flow PX plants with the recovery of profits [2] - PTA's own fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.6% month - on - month), and both domestic and foreign sales have entered the off - season. Terminal orders and start - up show a downward trend, but polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. The short - fiber inventory is not high, and although there are also production reduction news, the actual implementation is in doubt. For bottle chips, the 20% maintenance of China Resources on June 22 has been implemented, and Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance in early July, involving a production capacity of 1.7 million tons. The polyester load in July is expected to drop to 89% - 90%, and attention should be paid to the actual fulfillment [3] - The short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, and the PF's own fundamentals are acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, mostly for rigid demand procurement, and there is an expectation of weakening demand, so attention should be paid to cost - side support [3] - The spot processing fee of bottle chips is 263 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton month - on - month). With the slight loosening of sea freight in some areas, some overseas customers have replenished goods in moderation, and the inventory of polyester bottle chip factories has decreased slightly. In terms of load, the polyester bottle chip plants of China Resources in Changzhou and Jiangyin have reduced production by 20% since June 22, and Yisheng and Wankai also plan to conduct maintenance in early July, with a total production capacity of 1.7 million tons. The bottle chip load is expected to decline further. In the short term, the current bottle chip profit is still low, and the processing fee is expected to recover with the gradual fulfillment of production reduction [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX CFR China - Naphtha CFR Japan), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [74][82][84] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [91][95][98]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 市场分析 2025年6月30日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于63460元/吨，收于62260元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.77%。当 日成交量为389727手，持仓量为330824手，较前一交易日减少10624手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳960 元/吨。所有合约总持仓596987手，较前一交易日减少18035手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日降低296883手，成 交量494672，整体投机度为0.83。当日碳酸锂仓单22628手，较上个交易日增加630手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月30日电池级碳酸锂报价6.05-6.21万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.015万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.92-6.02万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.015万元/吨。根据SMM调研，当前市场呈现\"上游挺价、 下游压价\"的博弈格局：冶炼厂报价维持高位，但下游正极材料厂采购仍以刚需为主，市场整体成交清淡。不过部 分刚性需求订单仍支撑价格小幅上行，受期货盘面影响，现货也有所走强，但基本面并未改善。 策略 反弹后套保意愿较高，碳酸锂盘面走弱 跨品种：无 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于2997元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3123元/吨，期货盘面成交量放大，现货市场成交情况一般 偏弱，部分地区钢厂挺价，昨日全国建材成交10.4万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材即将进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预 期。螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内 制造业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成 果，宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需 求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪趋稳，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-07-01 伊朗甲醇进一步复工 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场分析 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润648元/吨（-13）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1943元/吨（-13），内蒙北线基差162元/吨（-1），内蒙南线1960元/吨（-100）；山东临沂2270元/吨（-10）， 鲁南基差89元/吨（+2）；河南2200元/吨（+0），河南基差19元/吨（+12）；河北2185元/吨（-15），河北基差64元/吨 （-3）。隆众内地工厂库存341550吨（-25800），西北工厂库存205500吨（-31500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单240700 吨（-34080），西北工厂待发订单119500吨（-30000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2790元/吨（-30），太仓基差409元/吨（-18），CFR中国287美元/吨（-4），华东进口价差301元/ 吨（+87），常州甲醇2435元/吨；广东甲醇2440元/吨（-15），广东基差59元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存670500吨（+84100）， 江苏港口库存356500吨（+63000）， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LPG industry is "shockingly weak" for unilateral trading, and there are no specific ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - With the easing of the Middle East situation, the geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the LPG market has returned to a shockingly weak state with insufficient market drivers. The reduction of Saudi Aramco's July CP price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market sentiment. The overall supply - demand pattern remains relatively loose, with abundant overseas supply and a gradual recovery of domestic refinery production. The combustion demand is weak, and although the PDH device's operating load has recovered, its profit is under pressure, restricting further increases in operating rate and raw material demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Analysis - On June 30, the regional prices in different markets were as follows: Shandong market 4550 - 4700 yuan/ton, Northeast market 4160 - 4310 yuan/ton, North China market 4540 - 4650 yuan/ton, East China market 4480 - 4700 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4670 - 4820 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4300 - 4400 yuan/ton, and South China market 4698 - 4750 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 580 dollars/ton (down 14 dollars/ton) and 535 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4571 yuan/ton (down 113 yuan/ton) and 4216 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 585 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) and 535 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4610 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) and 4216 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Saudi Aramco's July CP prices for propane and butane were 575 dollars/ton (down 25 dollars/ton from June) and 545 dollars/ton (down 25 dollars/ton from June) respectively [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Shockingly weak; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2]