市场要闻与重要数据 1、WTI 1月原油期货收涨0.31美元，涨幅将近0.53%，报58.95美元/桶。布伦特2月原油期货收涨0.22美元，涨幅超 过0.35%，报62.67美元/桶。 2、12月3日，航运数据和文件显示，委内瑞拉11月石油出口小幅上升至约92.1万桶/日，为今年迄今第三高的月度 平均水平。基于油轮动态的数据显示，美国在加勒比海的军事行动并未中断委内瑞拉的石油进出口，委内瑞拉上 月原油和燃料出口较10月增长3%。对美国石油出口增加至约15万桶/日（10月为12.8万桶/日），同时，委内瑞拉石 油副产品和石化产品出口也从10月的19.5万吨上升至约27.7万吨。轻质原油和燃料的进口量从10月份的7.4万桶/日 增至约16.7万桶/日，增幅超过一倍。(来源：Bloomberg) 原油日报 | 2025-12-04 特朗普将下调美国乘用车燃油经济性标准 3、1月（石油重镇Alberta省交易的）Heavy Western Canadian Select与WTI原油期货贴水扩大至13美元/桶，创美国 总统特朗普的政府对加拿大石油加征10%关税以来最大。1月（美国墨西哥湾沿岸交易的）加拿大重油/WTI原 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 现货贴水扩大难以阻碍铝价上涨 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21800元/吨，较上一交易日变化90元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-50元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21680元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-170元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录21690元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-160元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-03日沪铝主力合约开于21940元/吨，收于21940元/吨，较上一交易日变化85元/吨，最 高价达21970元/吨，最低价达到21825元/吨。全天交易日成交161612手，全天交易日持仓249248手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化0.0万吨，仓单库存66833 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存533400吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2825元/吨，山东价格录得2760元/吨，河南价格录得 2850元/吨，广西 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-04 天然橡胶社会库存继续累积 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15210元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨；NR主力合约12085元/吨，较前一日变动-145 元/吨；BR主力合约10575元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14800元/吨，较前一日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14450元/吨，较前一 日变动-130元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1825美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1715 美元/吨，较前一日变动-15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10600元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4 ...

美国就业下滑。宏观方面，国务院总理李强在主持专题学习时指出，新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做 强国内大循环的重要载体。要因地制宜实施好新型城镇化规划。科学有序推进农业转移人口市民化。要深入实施 城市更新行动，把城市更新和消除安全隐患、稳楼市等工作结合起来，扎实推进好房子建设和房地产高质量发展。 要着力破解城乡二元结构。海外方面，ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来 最大降幅，远不及市场预期的增加1万个。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡下跌，沪指跌0.51%收于3878点，创业板指跌1.12%。行业方面，板块指 数跌多涨少，交通运输、有色金属、煤炭行业领涨，传媒、计算机、房地产、商贸零售行业跌幅居前。当日沪深 两市成交额为1.67万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.86%报47882.9点。 期指基差修复。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货的贴水继续修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同 步增加。 策略 海外方面，美国小非农就业数据表现弱于预期，美联储降息预期进一步升温，美股三大指数均小幅收涨。国内方 面，指数开启二次探底，关注即将召开的两大 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 供需矛盾不突出 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-03，LME铅现货升水为-42.45美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17075 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/ 吨至17175元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/吨至17125元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化50元/吨至17100元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-03，沪铅主力合约开于17170元/吨，收于17210元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，全天交易日 成交27017手，较前一交易日变化-25060手，全天交易日持仓46627手，手较前一交易日变化-974手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17240元/吨，最低点达到17140元/吨。夜盘 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-04 终端需求逐步下降，盘面震荡筑底 沥青盘面维持低位震荡态势，反弹动力暂有限，需等待筑底完成。现货方面，昨日华北以及山东地区沥青现货价 格均出现下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。就沥青自身基本面而言，尽管原油价格近日小幅反弹，但沥青 市场情绪较弱，需求端持续疲软，局部过剩压力仍存，施压沥青现货价格。虽然有部分冬储合同释放，但逆转弱 势还需要更多利好因素刺激。 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主，等待市场筑底 跨期：逢高反套2601/2602 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 市场分析 1、12月3日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价2952元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨12元/吨，涨幅 0.41%；持仓112712手，环比下跌23392手，成交251063手，环比上涨28579手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2850—3470元/吨；华南，2980—3150元/吨； 华东，3100—3300元/吨。 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views - After the China - US trade policy game, the short - term focus of the domestic soybean meal market is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. There is still uncertainty about whether the demand side of the new - season US soybeans can meet expectations [2] - In the corn market, the rapid temperature drop in Northeast China, the low moisture content and high quality of new - season corn have increased farmers' willingness to store. With sufficient funds of traders and the entry of futures - cash companies, the competition on the acquisition side has intensified, supporting the current corn price [4] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Category Soybean Meal - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.03%) from the previous day. The spot prices in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong remained unchanged at 3080 yuan/ton, 3020 yuan/ton, and 3010 yuan/ton respectively. As of November 29, the sowing progress of 2025/26 soybeans in Brazil was 86.0%, higher than the previous week and the five - year average but lower than last year. In September, the US used 1.053 billion pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1] - **Market Analysis**: The focus is on China's procurement of US soybeans. The 10% additional import tariff on US soybeans and the decline in South American soybean premiums have weakened the competitiveness of US soybeans [2] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bearish [3] Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2259 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.71%) from the previous day. The corn starch 2511 contract was 2562 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.63%). In December 2, UCAB reported that Ukraine's agricultural exports in November increased by 12% to about 5 million tons [3] - **Market Analysis**: The cold weather in Northeast China, high - quality new - season corn, and the entry of traders and futures - cash companies have supported the corn price [4] - **Strategy**: Neutral [5] Rapeseed Meal - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2408 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.62%) from the previous day. The spot price in Fujian was 2560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] Corn Starch - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2562 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.63%) from the previous day. The spot price in Jilin was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]

化工日报 | 2025-12-04 主港延续累库，EG价格弱势 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3822元/吨（较前一交易日变动-55元/吨，幅度-1.42%），EG华东市场现货价 3829元/吨（较前一交易日变动-47元/吨，幅度-1.21%），EG华东现货基差2元/吨（环比+1元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-65美元/吨（环比-2美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1019 元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为75.3万吨（环比+2.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为70.8万吨（环比+7.5万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量1.4万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数16.1万吨，副港到港量4.1万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，部分短流程油化工装置生产压力较大，后续关注其裂 解环节以及乙二醇装置降负可能；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限，短期港口库存预计持稳，但12月上旬仍有沙特 大船抵 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are cautiously bullish, but the rebound space for the 01 contract may be limited. It is recommended to focus on the 05 contract in the medium to long term [3] Core Viewpoints - The market is fluctuating, and PXN is relatively strong. The overall fundamentals have a bearish impact on oil prices, but market differentiation caused by sanctions still exists, and the impact of geopolitical and macro events on sentiment needs to be considered [1] - The polyester start - up rate is 91.5% (a 0.2% month - on - month increase). Although recent weaving orders have weakened marginally, the short - term risk of a significant decline in polyester load is low, and it is expected to remain around 91% [2] - For PX, with the support of polyester start - up, PXN has support, but the high - level PX load and individual device expansions limit its rebound space. Attention should be paid to the situation of blending into gasoline [1][3] - For TA, recent maintenance is concentrated, demand for exports has increased, and the supply - demand situation has improved. In the medium to long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [1][3] - For PF, the load is at a high level, factory inventories have decreased to a low level, and the fundamentals provide some support, but demand is weakening marginally [2][3] - For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. Maintenance continues, but the demand in the off - season is average. The spot processing fees of bottle chips are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The content includes toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea FOB and Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the start - up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the start - up rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][31] V. Social Inventories and Warehouse Receipts - It presents PTA weekly social inventories, PX monthly social inventories, and various types of warehouse receipt inventories such as PTA and PX [36][39][40] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The report contains information on filament and short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, and the start - up rates of related downstream industries such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines [48][50][60] VII. PF Detailed Data - It includes details such as polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, and the load of recycled cotton - type staple fibers, as well as production and processing data of related yarns [70][82][87] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The content involves polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, and export profits of bottle chips [89][95][99]

尿素日报 | 2025-12-04 企业库存去库，成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-03，尿素主力收盘1692元/吨（+5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1690 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1680元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1680元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-12 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：-2元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：-12元/吨（-5）；尿素生产利润150元/吨（+0），出口利润930元/ 吨（-1）。 供应端：截至2025-12-03，企业产能利用率83.71%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为129.05 万吨（-7.34），港口样本 库存量为10.00 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-12-03，复合肥产能利用率37.06%（+2.45%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为60.80%（-1.40%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.35日（+0.70）。 尿素现货小幅下调后成交好转。复合肥山西、河北停车装置重启，湖北大企业开工率提升，整体开工提升。三聚 氰胺开工下降，刚需采购。淡储陆续入场。新疆中能已出尿素，随着新增产能释放，中长期尿素供需仍偏 ...