1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to significant short - term arrival pressure on pure benzene, with an accelerated accumulation rate of port inventory. Downstream operations remain at a low level during the off - season. Styrene is under maintenance with low load, and CPL operation is further declining at a low level. Although the operations of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid have slightly increased, terminal demand is still weak [3]. - The port basis of styrene continues to strengthen slightly, but the port inventory does not continue to decline, and there is still arrival pressure. The procurement by downstream enterprises drives the basis to strengthen. Attention should be paid to their enthusiasm for holding goods during the off - season. Styrene is still in the low - operation stage of maintenance, and the resumption plan is postponed. However, the downstream operation during the off - season is still low. The operation of EPS with obvious seasonality continues to decline, the operation of PS rebounds but there is still inventory pressure, and the finished - product inventory of ABS still has pressure while the operation remains at a low level [3]. 3. Summary of Each Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 116 yuan/ton (+3), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 155 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 115 yuan/ton (+64 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profit and Domestic - Foreign Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The processing fee of pure benzene CFR China is 102 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), the processing fee of pure benzene FOB South Korea is 92 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), and the price difference between the US and South Korea is 184.9 dollars/ton (+15.1 dollars/ton). The production profit of downstream products varies, such as - 550 yuan/ton (+85) for caprolactam, - 827 yuan/ton (- 225) for phenol - acetone, 753 yuan/ton (+254) for aniline, and - 1218 yuan/ton (+34) for adipic acid [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 67 yuan/ton (+94 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The import profit and other relevant spreads are presented in the report [1][34]. III. Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 22.40 tons (+6.00 tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different changes, with the caprolactam operating rate at 86.68% (- 1.54%), the phenol operating rate at 81.00% (+2.00%), the aniline operating rate at 77.19% (+1.51%), and the adipic acid operating rate at 59.40% (+3.90%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 160,600 tons (- 3,600 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 96,400 tons (+2,200 tons), and the operating rate is 67.3% (- 1.7%) [1]. IV. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream Products - EPS: The production profit is 17 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 54.75% (- 1.52%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 83 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 57.60% (+1.70%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 644 yuan/ton (- 44 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 71.20% (- 1.20%) [2]. V. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream Products The production profit and operating rate data of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, and adipic acid are as mentioned above in the production profit and inventory and operating rate parts [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct long inter - period spread trading for EB2601 - EB2602 at low prices. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View - The market for the three major oils is volatile. Strong stocking demand for the upcoming Lunar New Year and Ramadan celebrations in early 2026, along with floods in Asia that may slow down the picking rhythm, provide some support for the oils. However, the slower - than - expected reduction of soybean oil inventory keeps its price under pressure. Overall, the market is in a volatile state [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8730.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.11% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8286.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.00 yuan or -0.02% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9711.00 yuan/ton, a change of -34.00 yuan or -0.35% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8740.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.92%, with a spot basis of P01 + 10.00, a change of +70.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8460.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan/ton or +0.24%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 174.00, a change of +22.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9970.00 yuan/ton, a change of -60.00 yuan or -0.60%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 259.00, a change of -26.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market News Agricultural Supervision - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has deployed a winter crop seed supervision and inspection across the country, focusing on key crops like corn, rice, soybeans, etc., to ensure the safety of agricultural seeds [2] Argentina's Soybean Forecast - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4690 tons, with a forecast range of 4580 - 4810 tons. The sowing is delayed, and the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt is decreasing [2] - The predicted sowing area is 1670 hectares, higher than the Rosario Exchange's prediction of 1640 hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's prediction of 1760 hectares [2] Import Price Changes - Argentina's C&F price of soybean oil (January shipment) is 1198 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars/ton; (March shipment) is 1140 dollars/ton, up 15 dollars/ton [2] - Canada's C&F price of rapeseed oil (January shipment) is 1105 dollars/ton, unchanged; (March shipment) is 1085 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - Canada's C&F price of rapeseeds (January shipment) is 530 dollars/ton, unchanged; (March shipment) is 539 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton [2] - C&F prices of soybeans from different regions (January shipment): US Gulf at 499 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton; US West at 494 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; Brazil at 479 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton [2] Import Premium Changes - Import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (January shipment) at 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; US West Coast (January shipment) at 223 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (January shipment) at 180 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The bond market is oscillating between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. The stock market trends, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the increased uncertainty in global trade are affecting foreign capital inflows. In the short - term, attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and year - on - year, while PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and dropped 2.1% year - on - year [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, up 0.64 trillion yuan (0.15%) from the previous month; M2 year - on - year growth was 8.2%, down 0.2 percentage points; Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.86, down 0.47 (-0.47%); USD/CNH (offshore) was 7.0585, down 0.012 (-0.18%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.43, down 0.01 (-0.56%); DR007 was 1.44, unchanged; R007 was 1.51, down 0.02 (-1.24%); AAA - rated 3 - month interbank certificates of deposit yield was 1.61, up 0.01 (+0.47%); AA - AAA 1 - year credit spread was 0.09, down 0.01 [10]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Closing prices on December 3, 2025: TS, TF, T, and TL closed at 102.42 yuan, 105.85 yuan, 108.04 yuan, and 113.61 yuan respectively. Their daily changes were 0.03%, 0.07%, 0.06%, and - 0.26% respectively [3]. - Average net basis: TS, TF, T, and TL had average net basis of - 0.051 yuan, - 0.123 yuan, - 0.135 yuan, and - 0.103 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Fiscal situation from January to October 2025: General public budget revenue increased 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth. The revenue completion progress was slightly lower than the historical average. General public budget expenditure increased only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months, mainly due to the lack of impetus after the front - loaded fiscal spending in the first half of the year and the weakening of infrastructure spending. Social security and education spending still grew relatively fast [2]. - Financial situation at the end of October: Social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance remained strong, while corporate and household financing demand was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality and a shift from current to time deposits. Long - term bond yields faced upward pressure, and the yield curve steepened [2]. - Central bank operation on December 3, 2025: The central bank conducted 793 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money market: The main repo rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.301%, 1.426%, 1.465%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repo rates had recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report shows various spread trends, including inter - period spreads of treasury bond futures and spreads between spot and futures contracts of different varieties [27][33][34]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the relationship between the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [36][37][46]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the relationship between the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [48][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the relationship between the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [55][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It presents the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the relationship between the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][64][68]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: With the decline in repo rates, treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decline in the lithium carbonate futures market on the day was mainly affected by the expected weakening of consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end. Short - term inventory continued to be depleted, but the depletion rate slowed down significantly. The resumption of production at the mine end is advancing, and lithium salt supply has increased significantly. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter, with a predicted decrease in the power battery segment and high - level maintenance in the energy storage segment. Short - term interval operation is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 96,560 yuan/ton and closed at 93,660 yuan/ton, with a - 2.82% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 643,323 lots, and the open interest was 562,836 lots (the previous day's open interest was 552,239 lots). The current basis was - 1,970 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 9,652 lots, a change of 660 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 - 96,200 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 - 92,800 yuan/ton, also a - 50 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,205 US dollars/ton, a - 10 US dollars/ton change from the previous day. The actual transaction prices in the market were mostly concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are ongoing, with the focus on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2]. - It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to be strong, the energy storage market will continue to have strong supply and demand, and the supply shortage pattern remains. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. Overall, lithium carbonate inventory is expected to continue to be depleted in December, but the depletion rate will slow down compared to November [2]. - In November 2025, Chile exported 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 28% month - on - month decrease; the volume exported to China was 14,700 tons, a 9% month - on - month decrease. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and the volume exported to China was 151,800 tons, a 15% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all to China, a 493% month - on - month increase. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 82,000 tons of lithium sulfate, a 33% year - on - year increase [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Short - term interval operation [4] - Cross - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 下游承压价格走弱，多晶硅基本面表现仍较弱 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-03，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8955元/吨，最后收于8920元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-145）元/吨，变化（-1.60）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓193926手，2025-12-03仓单总数为6892手，较前 一日变化108手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 根据SMM调研，南北地区工业硅开工率分化，川滇硅企继续枯水期减产节奏开工率延续下行趋势。北方个别硅企 有增开或复产开工率上行。增减变化之下预计12月工业硅产量或基本持平于11月。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13200-13500（150）元/吨。SMM报道，在单体企业减排和持续挺价预期 背景下，刺激 ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-04 豆一市场延续僵局，花生供需僵持承压回落 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4139.00元/吨，较前日变化+16.00元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-39，较前日变化-16，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆价格持稳为主。基层余粮逐步见底，农户普遍持粮惜售，对当前价格形成 底部支撑。从贸易环节来看，市场流通节奏相对平缓，多数粮商已完成前期订单履约，当前购销活跃度不高，买 卖双方观望情绪较浓。综合来看，在供需相对平衡的格局下，预计短期内大豆价格将平稳运行。黑龙江哈尔滨市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03 元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平； 黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标 一等 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for copper is cautiously bullish, with arbitrage on hold and a short put option strategy [9] Core Viewpoints - High premiums in US copper are driving up overall copper prices [1] - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, copper demand in various terminal sectors shows structural differentiation, with a multi - polar driven pattern where power is relatively stable and the electronics sector may bring surprises. In 2026, copper demand may only see modest growth [7] - The current high Comex premium, low LME and SHFE copper inventories require attention to the risk of a short squeeze [6] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Futures Market**: On December 3, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 89,100 yuan/ton and closed at 89,210 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 90,070 yuan/ton and closed at 90,760 yuan/ton, up 2.01% from the afternoon close [2] - **Spot Market**: The average spot premium of SMM electrolytic copper was 140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The price range of 1 electrolytic copper was 88,730 - 89,230 yuan/ton. The market's procurement and sales sentiment improved, but the available supply in Shanghai was still tight, supporting the spot premium to continue rising [3] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: ADP data showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs in November 2023, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM services PMI in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the legality of Trump's tariffs, and 9 Japanese companies have sued for tariff refunds [4] - **Mining End**: Glencore plans to restart the Alumbrera project in Q4 2026, aiming for first production in H1 2028. After full - scale operation, it is expected to produce about 75,000 tons of copper, about 317,000 ounces of gold, and about 1,000 tons of molybdenum per year. Glencore also plans to increase its annual copper production to about 1.6 million tons in the next decade [5] - **Smelting and Imports**: In November, Chile's copper exports were 124,422 tons, with 29,112 tons to China. Copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,054,487 tons, with 716,614 tons to China. The Comex premium remains high, and LME and SHFE copper inventories are low [6] - **Consumption**: During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, copper demand in different terminal sectors is structurally differentiated. The power sector is the ballast of demand, and the electronics sector is the fastest - growing. In 2030, copper consumption in the power sector is expected to exceed 8 million tons, and in 2026, copper demand may only see modest growth [7] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,375 tons to 162,150 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons. On December 1, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 159,000 tons, down 14,500 tons from the previous week [8] Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot Premium**: The average premium of SMM 1 copper was 140 yuan/ton, with different premiums for different types of copper [28][29] - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 162,150 tons, SHFE inventory was 97,930 tons, and COMEX inventory was 391,848 tons [30] - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 28,969 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 3.89% [30][31] - **Arbitrage and Other Data**: There are relevant data on spreads, ratios, and import profitability [31]

生产行业：1）据悉，欧盟目前正考虑为包括汽车在内的特定商品，设定高达70%的"欧洲制造"目标，此举旨在优 先采购本土商品，以减少欧盟在清洁技术及部分重工业领域对他国的依赖。根据欧盟拟议的新规，具有可能构成 安全风险的太阳能逆变器产业，其主要部件或将必须在欧洲制造。一位欧盟官员表示，70%的采购比例最终可能下 调，且关于本土化内容规则的谈判进展料将艰难。 宏观日报 | 2025-12-04 地产下游销售持续回暖 中观事件总览 服务行业：1）美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来最低水平，预估为增加5000人，前值为增加 4.2万人。美国ADP就业报告公布后，现货黄金小幅上涨，美元指数延续跌势，美国两年期国债收益率进一步下跌。 2）12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题，进行第十七次 专题学习。李强在听取讲解和交流发言后指出，展望"十五五"时期，新型城镇化发展空间仍然很大。要从中国式 现代化全局的高度把握新型城镇化的使命任务，始终把这项工作摆在战略位置抓实抓好，加快补齐短板弱项，努 力实现人的全面发展、城市品质提升和产业聚集升级的互动并进。 数 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Overseas spot premium remains high and difficult to decline, overseas inventory is at a low level, export profit increases, domestic spot premium shows a positive trend, domestic warehouse receipt inventory declines slightly, and the fundamentals are all favorable. The domestic social inventory continues to decline. In November, the smelting output decreased month - on - month and was significantly lower than expected. The continuous upward repair of spot premium reflects both consumption intensity and supply tightness. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline. High - altitude mines in China have entered the winter shutdown and maintenance period. The rapid decline of TC price and the decline of absolute price have caused the smelting comprehensive cost to face losses, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decline in the later stage. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December increases, and the future consumption is optimistic [4] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $250.98 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,790 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,700 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,690 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On December 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,745 yuan per ton and closed at 22,755 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 106,416 lots, and the open interest was 104,585 lots. The highest price was 22,800 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,695 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 144,300 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 52,450 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous trading day [3]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-04 基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3137元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3319元/吨。现货方面，全国建材成交89788吨。 供需与逻辑：供应端，数据显示成材产量库存下降，需求表现尚可。板材数据产量库存数据回升，需求端稍弱。 当前基本面矛盾不突出，换月完成，宏观预期上升市场交易地位，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化 对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场观望为主，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日，双焦期货市场呈现涨跌分化态势，焦煤主力合约价格回调，焦炭主力合约延续上涨行情。进 口蒙煤市场表现平淡，贸易商情绪谨慎，市场活跃度一般，交投氛围冷清。 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘799.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交119.1 ...