Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,490 yuan/ton, a change of -19 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,552 yuan/ton, a change of +2 yuan/ton (+0.04%); the spot basis in East China was 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous day. The ethylene glycol port inventory has dropped to around 500,000 tons, and the short - term arrival is continuously low, leading to a stronger spot basis [1] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$47/ton, a +$2/ton change from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -21 yuan/ton, a +38 yuan/ton change from the previous day [1] - According to CCF's data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week; according to Longzhong's data, it was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports this week is 54,000 tons, remaining low. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and the import is expected to rise above 650,000 tons after August. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, with an increase in foreign trade shipments and the start of domestic sales stocking. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the peak operating rate is expected to be reached in late September [2] - The balance sheet from August to September shows a loose balance, with little supply - demand contradiction [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,490 yuan/ton, a change of -19 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,552 yuan/ton, a change of +2 yuan/ton (+0.04%); the spot basis in East China was 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$47/ton, a +$2/ton change from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -21 yuan/ton, a +38 yuan/ton change from the previous day [1] - Domestically, the ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and the import is expected to rise above 650,000 tons after August [2] International Spread - Not elaborated in the provided text Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The demand shows signs of recovery, with an increase in foreign trade shipments and the start of domestic sales stocking. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the peak operating rate is expected to be reached in late September [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week; according to Longzhong's data, it was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports this week is 54,000 tons, remaining low. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, and in 2024, China's annual power generation reached 10,086.9 billion kWh, ranking first in the world and accounting for 32.27% of global power generation. Attention should be paid to the electricity price changes in the upstream energy sector [1]. - On August 26, the State Council conducted the 15th special study on "accelerating the innovative development of service trade and actively cultivating new drivers for foreign trade development." The focus is on the development of emerging import - export business in the service industry [1]. 3. Summary by Directory A. Middle - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: In July, China's single - month electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time. In 2024, China's annual power generation was 10,086.9 billion kWh, ranking first in the world. Attention should be paid to the electricity price changes in the upstream energy sector [1]. - **Service Industry**: On August 26, the State Council carried out the 15th special study. The Prime Minister pointed out to expand high - quality service imports, promote institutional opening - up of service trade, and enhance the competitiveness of service exports, especially in emerging fields [1]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The price of glass in the black industry is falling; the price of eggs in the agricultural industry is falling; the price of PTA in the chemical industry is rising, while the price of urea is falling [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The PX operating rate in the chemical industry is rising; the coal consumption of power plants in the energy industry is increasing; the operating rate of pig products in the agricultural industry is rising [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities in the real estate industry are seasonally falling; the number of domestic flights in the service industry remains stable at a high level [2]. C. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On August 26, the spot price of corn was 2,305.7 yuan/ton, down 0.43% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.5 yuan/kg, down 3.42% year - on - year; the spot price of palm oil was 9,638.0 yuan/ton, down 0.54% year - on - year; the spot price of cotton was 15,330.8 yuan/ton, up 0.57% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of pork was 20.0 yuan/kg, down 0.99% year - on - year; the spot price of copper was 79,638.3 yuan/ton, up 0.68% year - on - year; the spot price of zinc was 22,276.0 yuan/ton, up 0.44% year - on - year [37]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The spot price of aluminum was 20,790.0 yuan/ton (H frequency) and 16,868.8 yuan/ton (daily frequency), up 0.89% and 1.20% year - on - year respectively; the spot price of nickel was 121,750.0 yuan/ton, down 0.15% year - on - year [37]. - **Ferrous Metals**: The spot price of rebar was 3,247.0 yuan/ton, up 0.03% year - on - year; the spot price of iron ore was 795.9 yuan/ton, up 1.94% year - on - year; the spot price of wire rod was 3,405.0 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; the spot price of glass was 13.9 yuan/square meter, down 2.80% year - on - year [37]. - **Non - metals**: The spot price of natural rubber was 15,066.7 yuan/ton, up 0.72% year - on - year; the China Plastics City price index was 804.2, down 0.32% year - on - year [37]. - **Energy**: The spot price of WTI crude oil was 64.8 US dollars/barrel, up 2.18% year - on - year; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 68.8 US dollars/barrel, up 3.30% year - on - year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3,910.0 yuan/ton, down 1.21% year - on - year; the coal price was 783.0 yuan/ton, up 0.13% year - on - year [37]. - **Chemical Industry**: The spot price of PTA was 4,922.5 yuan/ton, up 4.16% year - on - year; the spot price of polyethylene was 7,440.0 yuan/ton, up 0.02% year - on - year; the spot price of urea was 1,712.5 yuan/ton, down 3.04% year - on - year; the spot price of soda ash was 1,290.0 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; the national cement price index was 130.0, up 0.05% year - on - year [37]. - **Real Estate**: The building materials composite index was 115.2 points, down 0.05% year - on - year; the national concrete price index was 93.0 points, down 0.29% year - on - year [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - PVC is affected by the sentiment of the black sector and follows a downward trend. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the impact of macro and cost factors. In the long - term, supply pressure is large, demand is weak, and the chloro - alkali profit still has room for compression. However, the recent strength of coal and ethylene on the cost side needs continuous attention [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase. Supply is affected by maintenance, and demand shows signs of improvement. The cost support remains, and the chloro - alkali profit is at a medium level in the same period. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm during the peak season and the production start - up rhythm of Guangxi alumina [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures price and basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4999 yuan/ton (-48), the East China basis is -259 yuan/ton (+38), and the South China basis is -159 yuan/ton (+18) [1]. - **Spot price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4740 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4840 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - **Upstream production profit**: The blue charcoal price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit is -64 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is -223 yuan/ton (+8), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is -592 yuan/ton (-52), and the PVC export profit is 11.2 US dollars/ton (-2.9) [1]. - **Inventory and start - up**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (-2.1), the social PVC inventory is 50.8 tons (+1.5), the calcium carbide - based PVC start - up rate is 76.07% (-3.14%), the ethylene - based PVC start - up rate is 72.44% (-5.48%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.02% (-3.82%) [1]. - **Downstream order situation**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 72.5 tons (-6.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures price and basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2703 yuan/ton (-29), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -16 yuan/ton (+29) [1]. - **Spot price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 860 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1350 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream production profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1696 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 713.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 681.28 yuan/ton (+5.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1387.74 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - **Inventory and start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 39.64 tons (-4.14), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.36 tons (+0.03), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 83.20% (-0.90%) [2]. - **Downstream start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 85.78% (+0.14%), the dyeing start - up rate in East China is 63.86% (+2.40%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 86.22% (+0.18%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - **Supply**: Maintenance increases, and the start - up rate decreases month - on - month. However, due to the support of chlor - alkali profits, the overall start - up is at a high level. With the gradual mass production of new production capacity, the long - term supply pressure is still large [3]. - **Demand**: The start - up of downstream products remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. The export signing and delivery volume have increased week - on - week. Affected by the rush to export before the implementation of anti - dumping duties, the PVC export in July exceeded expectations. After India announced the new anti - dumping duties on imported PVC on August 14, the anti - dumping duties for the Chinese mainland generally increased by 46 - 52 US dollars/ton compared with the preliminary ruling on October 30, 2024. It is expected that the rush - to - export situation will continue, and the export expectation in the fourth quarter will weaken [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory continues to accumulate and is relatively high compared with the same period [3]. - **Cost**: Coal and ethylene on the cost side have recently strengthened, and attention should be paid to their further impact on the PVC cost [3]. Caustic Soda - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali enterprises' maintenance increases, and the start - up rate decreases month - on - month but is still at a high level in the same period. The start - up in Shandong has increased slightly and is at a high level in the same period. After the maintenance of Yantai Wanhua, the start - up may decline slightly in the future [3]. - **Demand**: The alumina profit is acceptable, and the start - up rate is stable month - on - month. The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream alumina plants is lower than the daily consumption, and downstream manufacturers have raised the purchase price, causing the spot price to rise. The non - aluminum downstream start - up rate has increased slightly month - on - month, and the procurement is acceptable. Affected by the military parade in late August, the caustic soda transportation is restricted, and the downstream stocking sentiment has improved. With the approaching peak - season expectation, the pending orders in Shandong are acceptable, and the enterprise inventory pressure has decreased [3]. - **Cost**: The liquid chlorine price is weak, but the cost support remains, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level in the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. - **Inter - commodity spread trading**: No trading strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side trading**: Be cautiously bullish [5]. - **Inter - delivery spread trading**: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread when the price is low [5]. - **Inter - commodity spread trading**: No trading strategy [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-27 整体商品情绪回落，工业硅盘面回调 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-08-26，工业硅期货盘面回落，主力合约2511开于8680元/吨，最后收于8515元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-250） 元/吨，变化（-2.85）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓281839手，2025-08-26仓单总数为50822手，较前一日变化 -116手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9500（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9700 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8700（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。。 SMM统计8月21日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.7万吨， 较上周环比持平，社会交割仓库42.6万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-11000（0）元/吨。SMM报道，当前上下游进入深度 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - High premiums are usually driven by factors such as supply - demand mismatches, quota restrictions, exchange - rate expectations, or policy limitations. Since Trump took office, his changing tariff policies have overshadowed other factors. After China's exchange - rate reform and policy transition, the large - scale fluctuations in the premiums of non - ferrous sector commodities caused by exchange - rate and "financing copper" issues may decrease in the future. Current premium fluctuations are mainly due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic - foreign supply - demand mismatches. Trump's changing policies may keep the premiums of New York market commodities high, which is not conducive to the outflow of Comex market inventory, and the short - term pressure on copper prices from the return of Comex copper inventory may not occur immediately [5]. - For gold, due to its strategic importance and role in the financial market, the state may introduce policies on gold purchases or quotas in the future, which may cause fluctuations in the domestic - foreign gold premium and make cross - market arbitrage difficult [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Background - Since Trump took office, his changing tariff policies have led to continuous premiums in the prices of non - ferrous metals and precious metals in the New York market. Although the expected 50% tariff on refined copper did not materialize, the Comex copper premium dropped significantly. The abnormal changes in the domestic - foreign premium have occurred frequently in the past, and this report summarizes the background and market sentiment of previous abnormal domestic premiums and provides views on future premium fluctuations [12]. Past 20 - year Premium Abnormalities Review Sub - prime Crisis Forced Adjustment of China's Gold Import Quota Policy - In 2008, the international gold price first reached a peak of $1000 per ounce in March and then dropped to $680 in October due to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. With the implementation of the Fed's quantitative easing policy, the gold price rebounded to over $1200 in 2009. In China, due to inflation and limited investment channels, the demand for physical gold soared. The central bank increased its gold reserves from 600 tons to 1054 tons, strengthening market bullish expectations. However, due to strict import quota management, only a few state - owned commercial banks could import gold, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance and a significant difference between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the London market. In the first half of 2009, the domestic market changed from a discount to a premium, and the premium returned to a reasonable range in the second half of the year after the import quota was gradually relaxed [13][14]. International Gold Price Fluctuations from 2011 to 2013 Led to a Rise in Domestic Premium - From 2011 to 2013, the international gold price reached a high in 2011 and then dropped sharply in 2013, and the domestic gold price premium increased abnormally. In August 2011, due to the European and American debt crises and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the international gold price soared, while the domestic supply could not meet the sudden increase in demand due to quota management, capital account restrictions, and exchange - rate expectations, resulting in a premium of about 20 - 30 yuan per gram. In early 2012, during the Chinese New Year gold consumption season, the domestic supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and the premium also reached over 20 yuan per gram. In 2013, the international gold price dropped sharply due to the Cyprus debt crisis and the Fed's plan to reduce bond purchases. Chinese consumers launched a gold - buying spree, and the central bank tightened the import channels, resulting in a premium of over 30 yuan per gram at the peak [24][25][26]. The "Financing Copper" Effect Pushed up the Domestic Copper Premium around the 8.11 Exchange - rate Reform - Around the 8.11 exchange - rate reform in 2015, the domestic copper premium increased significantly. The premium logic of the copper market is more complex, involving the dual game of "financing demand" and "depreciation arbitrage". The expectation of RMB depreciation led enterprises to conduct cross - border arbitrage through copper trade, causing the bonded - area copper inventory to exceed 600,000 tons and the domestic copper price to have a premium of up to 1,700 yuan per ton compared with the LME price. In early 2016, the supply - side reform led to expectations of copper smelter production cuts, further expanding the premium. The regulatory authorities took measures in the third quarter of 2016 to reduce the price difference, and the domestic premium peak in 2016 was about 2,000 yuan per ton [36]. The COVID - 19 Pandemic Caused Significant Premiums in Domestic Copper and Silver - In 2020, due to the different economic recovery paces between China and the rest of the world during the COVID - 19 pandemic, there were significant price premiums in the domestic silver and copper markets. The domestic silver price premium exceeded 200 yuan per kilogram in the second quarter, and the copper price premium reached 1,500 yuan per ton in May. The silver premium was driven by the booming photovoltaic industry, blocked import channels, and increased investment demand. The copper premium was due to China's infrastructure stimulus plan, a sharp decrease in scrap copper imports, and exchange - rate - related hedging behavior. The regulatory authorities took measures such as increasing import quotas and releasing state - reserve copper, and by the fourth quarter of 2020, the premiums returned to normal levels [41][42][43]. The Adjustment of the Gold Import Quota Led to a Rise in the Domestic Premium from 2023 to 2024 - From 2023 to 2024, the domestic - foreign gold price difference was inverted due to the central bank's quota control on gold imports. Geopolitical risks and the downturn in the domestic real estate market increased investors' demand for gold. Some enterprises and investors found ways to bypass the quota policy through financial innovation, which weakened the policy's effectiveness and increased the complexity and volatility of the domestic gold pricing system. As the bank's gold import quota was gradually relaxed, the premium gradually returned [47]. Summary - High premiums are usually driven by factors such as supply - demand mismatches, quota restrictions, exchange - rate expectations, or policy limitations. After Trump took office, his tariff policies overshadowed other factors. After China's exchange - rate reform and policy transition, the large - scale fluctuations in the premiums of non - ferrous sector commodities caused by exchange - rate and "financing copper" issues may decrease in the future. Current premium fluctuations are mainly due to geopolitical uncertainties and domestic - foreign supply - demand mismatches. Trump's changing policies may keep the premiums of New York market commodities high, which is not conducive to the outflow of Comex market inventory, and the short - term pressure on copper prices from the return of Comex copper inventory may not occur immediately. For gold, the state may introduce policies on gold purchases or quotas in the future, which may cause fluctuations in the domestic - foreign gold premium and make cross - market arbitrage difficult [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current marginal growth pattern of global silver shows "limited primary growth + increased by - product output + regional disturbances." The short - term supply elasticity is weak, and the price is more sensitive to demand and financial variables [42]. - Recent dovish signals from Fed officials strengthen the downward expectation of the forward real - interest - rate curve. The financial attribute premium of silver is supported. In the benchmark scenario, the view of "declining gold - silver ratio, silver outperforming gold, and price rising with high volatility" is maintained [43]. 3. Summary according to the Table of Contents 3.1 Recent Market Background and Summary of Major Silver Mining Enterprises - Major silver producers generally have the characteristics of "tightening primary ore increment and relying on by - products for silver increment." Pure silver ore increment is limited, and global new supply more depends on by - product recovery from copper/zinc projects. The supply side continues to feature "low elasticity + regional disturbances" [2]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy Suggestions - At the macro level, the co - existence of global growth slowdown and the bottom - up repair of the manufacturing industry, along with the rising market expectation of the Fed's moderate easing within the year and the high - level slowdown of real interest rates, support the main line of silver's "financial elasticity + stable industrial demand" [3]. 3.3 Global Major Silver Producers' Situation 3.3.1 Fresnillo plc - In 2024, its silver equity production was 56.31 million ounces, basically flat with 2023. In 2025 H1, the silver equity production was 24.9 million ounces, a year - on - year decline of about 8.30%. The company maintains the annual production guidance of 49 - 56 million ounces [8][9]. 3.3.2 KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. - In 2024, its silver production was 1341 tons, a year - on - year decline of 6%. In 2025 H1, it was about 657.2 tons, a year - on - year decline of 3%. The Sierra Gorda mine in Chile is expected to expand in mid - 2025, which may increase copper and silver production [14][15]. 3.3.3 Newmont Corporation - In 2024, its silver production was about 33 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 83%. In 2025 H1, it was about 14 million ounces, a year - on - year decline of 17.6%. The 2025 annual production guidance is about 28 million ounces, a year - on - year decline of 15.21% compared with 2024 [21]. 3.3.4 Pan American Silver Corp. - In 2024, its silver production was 21.061 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 3.05%. In 2025 H1, it was 10.097 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 5.44%. The main increments come from La Colorada and El Peñon [23][24]. 3.3.5 Southern Copper Corporation - In 2024, its silver production was 20.983 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In 2025 H1, it was 11.43 million ounces, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The 2025 annual guidance is 23 million ounces, a 9% increase compared with 2024 [30][31]. 3.3.6 Glencore plc - In 2024, its silver production was 19.286 million ounces, a year - on - year decline of 4%. In 2025 H1, it was 9.097 million ounces, basically flat year - on - year. The decline in Collahuasi is offset by the increase in Antamina, Kazzinc, and Kidd [33][34]. 3.4 Gold - Silver Ratio Review - Since 1980, the gold - silver ratio has generally shown a long - cycle pattern of "high - level fluctuation - periodic convergence - expansion again." The ratio converges when "loose policy + industrial recovery + re - inflation" resonate, and expands in the stage of "tightening/stagflation + declining risk appetite" [39]. 3.5 Summary and Hedging Suggestions - The short - term supply elasticity of silver is weak. If the Fed continues to compress the real - interest - rate spread and the economy has a "moderate slowdown," silver will benefit from the dual - drive of "metal financial attribute + industrial buffer" [42][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) data for various stock index options on August 25, 2025. 3. Summary by Section Option Trading Volume - On August 25, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option volume was 217.09 million contracts; CSI 300 ETF option (Shanghai market) volume was 194.47 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF option (Shanghai market) volume was 247.96 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF option volume was 17.55 million contracts; ChiNext ETF option volume was 387.11 million contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index option volume was 9.12 million contracts; CSI 300 stock index option volume was 15.14 million contracts; and CSI 1000 option total volume was 35.80 million contracts [1]. - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes for each option type is also provided in Table 1 [19]. Option PCR - The report shows the put - call ratio (PCR) of trading volume and open interest for different stock index options. For example, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option trading volume PCR was 0.32 with a 0.00 change from the previous day, and the open - interest PCR was 1.16 with a - 0.04 change [2]. - The PCR data for other options such as CSI 300 ETF option, CSI 500 ETF option, etc., are also presented in Table 2, including their respective changes from the previous day [28]. Option VIX - The VIX data for different stock index options are reported. For instance, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option VIX was 26.97% with a + 4.83% change from the previous day; the CSI 300 ETF option (Shanghai market) VIX was 24.33% with a + 3.89% change [3]. - The VIX data for other options and their changes are detailed in Table 3 [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, influenced more by macro - sentiment. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. Stainless steel prices are expected to continue the range - bound trend in the near future, facing the game between "high inventory" and "cost support" and being greatly affected by macro - policies and news [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 119,550 yuan/ton and closed at 120,310 yuan/ton, up 0.59% from the previous trading day. Affected by the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve, the futures market continued to strengthen. The price fluctuated in a narrow range, with the long - side dominant due to capital inflow [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The overall trading activity in the nickel ore market was at a medium level, and the mainstream prices remained stable. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes. In Indonesia, the (Phase II) August nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price decreased slightly, and the current mainstream domestic trade premium remained at +24. The (Phase I) September domestic trade premium is under negotiation, and it is expected to remain the same as before [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,600 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums of various brands were stable. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,292 (- 260.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,748 (150) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term nickel price trading should focus on range - bound operations, with no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 25, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,770 yuan/ton and closed at 12,880 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and domestic real estate policies, the futures market strengthened. The price fluctuated in a narrow range, with the long - side dominant due to capital inflow [3]. - **Spot**: Boosted by the futures price rebound, market confidence recovered. Traders' quotes were stronger, and the downstream and middlemen's inquiry enthusiasm increased. The actual trading volume showed an upward trend. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,075 yuan/ton and 13,050 yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 340 - 490 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The stainless steel market is facing the game between "high inventory" and "cost support". It is expected that the price will continue the range - bound trend in the near future. Trading should focus on range - bound operations, with no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

国债期货日报 | 2025-08-26 美联储转鸽，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-08-25，央行以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a bias towards short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current macro - sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities show a strong trend. In the zinc spot market, the discount has slightly widened, making it difficult for traders to support prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is hard to mobilize. With the continuous rise of imported TC, smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is still increasing. The smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the decline in zinc prices has limited impact on smelting profit, so smelting enthusiasm remains. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs to be watched out for [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Spot - LME zinc spot premium is - 2.95 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22310 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 160 yuan/ton to 22310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22290 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.2 Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22220 yuan/ton, closed at 22395 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 131380 lots, and the position was 105259 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22465 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22200 yuan/ton [3] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 13.85 million tons, a change of 0.56 million tons from the previous period. As of August 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a change of - 1300 tons from the previous trading day [4] 3.2 Market Analysis - Macro - sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities are strong. In the zinc spot market, discounts widen slightly, and traders struggle to support prices. The imported TC is rising, smelters have sufficient raw materials, and port inventory is increasing. The smelting profit is over 1000 yuan/ton, and zinc price decline has little impact on it, so smelting enthusiasm remains. Even in the peak consumption season, domestic inventory is expected to accumulate. If the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face pressure, but overseas inventory impact needs attention [5] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, with a bias towards short positions; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]