市场要闻与重要数据 氯碱日报 | 2025-07-01 山东主力下游烧碱采购价再下调 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4889元/吨（-30）；华东基差-109元/吨（+30）;华南基差1元/吨（+40）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4890元/吨（+10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2880元/吨（+0）；电石利润130元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-504元/吨（-10）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-693元/吨（-53）；PVC出口利润-7.0美元/吨（-5.7）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存39.5万吨（-0.6）；PVC社会库存36.2万吨（+0.7）；PVC电石法开工率80.43%（+0.81%）； PVC乙烯法开工率67.38%（-1.85%）；PVC开工率76.81%（+0.07%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量62.9万吨（-1.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2319元/吨（+0）；山东32%液碱基差119元/吨（+0）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - In the pure benzene market, the pressure of South Korea's shipments to China remains high, domestic production starts to decline from a high level, and the demand for pure benzene increases after the destocking of downstream CPL inventory. However, the inventory of pure benzene continues to accumulate, and the port inventory pressure is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. In the styrene market, the port inventory is in a continuous accumulation cycle, and the EB basis drops rapidly after the paper cargo delivery. The domestic EB operating rate is at a high level, and the factory inventory continues to rise. The operating rates of downstream PS and ABS are still low [2] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Phenyl Difference Structure and Related Spreads - The report presents multiple figures related to EB and pure phenyl difference structures and related spreads, including EB main contract trends and basis, EB main contract basis, the spread between the first and third contracts of styrene, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, the spot - M2 paper cargo spread of East China pure benzene, the spread between pure benzene CFR China and naphtha, the spread between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB South Korea, and the immediate import profit of Chinese pure benzene [6][9][10] EB& Pure Benzene Operating Rate and Inventory - The report shows figures about the operating rates and inventories of EB and pure benzene, such as the East China port inventory of pure benzene, the operating rate of pure benzene, the East China port inventory of styrene, the operating rate of styrene, the East China commercial inventory of styrene, and the factory inventory of styrene [24][26][29] Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - The report provides information on the operating rates and production profits of downstream products, including the operating rate and production profit of EPS, the operating rate and production profit of PS, and the operating rate and production profit of ABS [38][43][47] Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream - The report includes figures on the production profits of pure benzene downstream products, such as the production profit of caprolactam, the production profit of phenol - acetone, the production profit of aniline, the production profit of adipic acid, the production profit of PA6 regular spinning bright, the production profit of nylon filament, the production profit of bisphenol A, the production profit of PC, the production profit of epoxy resin E - 51, the production profit of pure MDI, and the production profit of polymer MDI [54][56][60]

原油日报 | 2025-07-01 欧佩克考虑继续增加生产配额 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌41美分，收于每桶65.11美元，跌幅为0.63%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌16美分，收于每桶67.61美元，跌幅为0.24%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.30%，报498元/桶。 2、路透社数据显示，哈萨克斯坦今年的石油产量可能比预期高出2%，达到每日200万桶，原因是大型油田的产量 预计将增加。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，得克萨斯州4月份原油产量升至577万桶/日，为自去年11月以来最高水平。 （来源：Bloomberg） 4、欧佩克+将在七月会议上考虑延长其大规模增产，因领导者沙特正带头努力夺回市场份额。欧佩克+八个主要国 家已同意在过去三个月中每天大幅增产41.1万桶。八个成员国在7月6日开会时，欧佩克+可能会在8月再次将石油日 产量提高41.1万桶。欧佩克+领导国俄罗斯的态度也发生了值得注意的转变，在上次会议上，俄罗斯曾短暂反对7 月再次加速增产。但近期消息显示，如果欧佩克+认为有必要，莫斯科现在可能更愿意接受新的增产措 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Manufacturing PMI improved in June, with large - scale enterprises above the critical point and medium - scale enterprises showing an upward trend, while small - scale enterprises declined [1]. - The credit spreads of the entire industry have recently declined slightly [3]. - Attention should be paid to the implementation of overseas tax policies, where overseas investors can enjoy tax credits under certain conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Production Industry - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Service Industry - Three departments issued a tax credit policy for overseas investors' direct investment with distributed profits from 2025 to 2028 [1]. 3.3 Upstream - Energy: International oil prices dropped significantly year - on - year [2]. - Agriculture: Egg prices have recently rebounded [2]. 3.4 Midstream - Chemical industry: The polyester operating rate has declined [3]. 3.5 Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three - year low [3]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [3]. 3.6 Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries have shown different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry was 57.07 BP this week, with a certain change compared to the previous period [46]. 3.7 Key Industry Price Indicators - Prices of various industries have different trends. For example, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $65.5 per barrel on June 30, down 11.27% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 5.6 yuan per kilogram, down 3.93% year - on - year [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economic sentiment has rebounded during Trump's tariff grace period, but economic pressure remains. With the implementation of policy dividends, investment and consumption demand are expected to be continuously released. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the Politburo meeting in July further increasing policies to stabilize growth [1]. - As the deadline for the US to postpone tariffs approaches, the EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, Canada has cancelled the digital service tax, and the India - US trade negotiation is at a deadlock. The subsequent progress of trade negotiations among countries needs continuous attention [2]. - The Fed is not in a hurry to act due to the unprecedented tariffs and the difficulty in predicting the impact on inflation. The "Big Beautiful" bill has passed the procedural vote in the US Senate, and the US retail sales in May declined significantly [3]. - Macro - inflation trading has heated up. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and the gold price related to inflation expectations are worthy of attention. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and gold on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, China's investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be issued in July. China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in June all increased compared to the previous month, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months [1]. - The People's Bank of China made a net injection of 30.58 billion yuan on June 26th, the highest since April 30th [1]. Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration admitted the flexibility of the tariff schedule on June 12th. The EU is preparing counter - measures, and the EU Commission President is confident of reaching an agreement by July 9th. The UK - US trade agreement has reduced tariffs on UK exports to the US. Canada has cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked over auto parts taxes [2]. US Economic Situation - Powell reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to act. The "Big Beautiful" bill has passed the procedural vote in the Senate, and the Senate will vote on the tax reform bill on Monday morning local time. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since March 2023 [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff events first lead to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the "Big Beautiful" bill passing and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. The non - ferrous sector and gold are worthy of attention, and the black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations [4]. Energy - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026. Trump said that due to low oil prices, a cease - fire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached. The IEA predicts that the oversupply of oil in 2025 may continue until the end of this decade. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th [4][7]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and gold on dips [5]. Important News - China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in June all increased compared to the previous month [7]. - The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, reducing tariffs on UK auto and aerospace product exports to the US [7]. - Canada has cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US, and the two sides will restart negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21, 2025 [2][7]. - The US Senate has completed the reading of the "Big Beautiful" bill and started the debate, and will vote after the debate [3][7]. - China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for five years starting from July 1, 2025 [4][7]. - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026 [7]. - Trump said that due to low oil prices, a cease - fire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached [4][7].

化工日报 | 2025-07-01 青岛港口库存继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13985元/吨，较前一日变动-60元/吨。NR主力合约12190元/吨，较前一日变动-40 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13950元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13900元/吨， 较前一日变动-30元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1720美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1660美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11350元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 天然橡胶： 现货及价差：2025-06-30，RU基差-35元/吨（+10），RU主力与混合胶价差85元/吨（-30），烟片胶进口利润-6453元 /吨（+64.13），NR基差123.00元/吨（+33.00）；全乳胶13950元/吨（-50），混合胶13900元/吨（-30），3L现货14600 元/吨（-50）。STR20#报价1720美元/吨（+0），全乳胶与3L价差-650元/吨（ ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-01 需求支撑不足，尿素偏弱震荡 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-30，尿素主力收盘1712元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1800元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1810元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：88 元/吨（-5）；河南基差：68元/吨（-15）；江苏基差：98元/吨（-5）；尿素生产利润270元/吨（-10），出口利润885元 /吨（+225）。 供应端：截至2025-06-30，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为109.59 万吨（-4.01），港口样本 库存量为38.10 万吨（+8.60）。 需求端：截至2025-06-30，复合肥产能利用率30.11%（-1.71%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.21%（-1.11%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.11）。 尿素装置临时停车增加，上游开工率走低，产量有所下降。下游需求不及预期，复合肥进入季节性淡季，开工率 仍在持续走低，预计7月中旬开始提升，三聚氰胺开工低位运行，其他工业需求亦偏弱。农 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪有所消退，工业硅盘面冲高回落 工业硅： 2025-06-30，工业硅期货价格冲高回落，主力合约2509开于8075元/吨，最后收于8060元/吨，较前一日结算变化（230） 元/吨，变化（2.94）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓355751手，2025-06-30仓单总数为52473手，较前一日变化 -271手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅走高。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8400-8500（150）元/吨；421#硅在8600-9000 （100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7800-8000（200）元/吨，99硅价格在7800-8000（200）元/吨。 根据SMM市场交流，2025年6月份工业硅产量环比增加6.5%同比减少27.7%。2025年1-6月份工业硅累计产量同比下 降17.8%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。有机硅价格持稳，整体消费表现一般，下游维持 刚需采购。 策略 上周由于商品情绪较强及头部企业减产，工业硅盘面反弹较多，后续供应端有复产可能，消费表现仍偏弱，盘面 仍有回落可能 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-01 苹果客商按需拿货，红枣销区到货减少 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7701元/吨，较前一日变动+4元/吨，幅度+0.05%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+499，较前一日变动-4；陕西洛川70# 以上半商 品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1899，较前一日变动-4。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场行情维持稳淡运行，库内货源交易不快，部分急售现货商略有让价情绪。西部产区货源 剩余不多，存货商自行发市场为主，交易不多，早熟果藤木、光果晨阳等陆续上市，上市后价格稳定；山东产区 仍以发市场为主，部分货源价格因质量有小幅松动。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目 前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果 农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 昨日苹 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the second in Huatai Futures' series on the listing of pure benzene, focusing on the domestic supply pattern of pure benzene in China [3] Group 2: China's Pure Benzene Capacity Investment - China still mainly uses petroleum benzene. Before 2019, the proportion of petroleum benzene capacity in benzene capacity was around 65%. After the wave of private large refinery startups in 2019, it has now risen to 75% [11] - Petroleum benzene is the main driver of the growth in the pure benzene supply. In 2025, the growth rate of benzene capacity is expected to be 7.1%, with petroleum benzene at 8.1% and hydrogenated benzene at only 4.2% [12] - The development of China's pure benzene capacity has gone through four stages: slow growth from the 1960s to the 1980s, rapid development in the 1980s, slowdown after 2010, and rapid expansion since 2019 [14][15] - In 2025, there is still pressure on pure benzene capacity investment. The growth rate of new petroleum benzene capacity is 8.1%, slightly higher than 6.6% in 2024. Attention should be paid to the startup rhythm of Yulong in the third quarter [16] - China's petroleum benzene production mainly comes from catalytic reforming, ethylene cracking, and toluene disproportionation. The proportion of catalytic reforming capacity has decreased to 44%, while toluene disproportionation has reached around 22%, and ethylene cracking has dropped to 23% [20] Group 3: China's Pure Benzene Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene supply is mainly dominated by state - owned enterprises, with private enterprises gradually playing an important role. Since 2014, the proportion of private enterprise capacity has been increasing [21] - State - owned enterprises still hold the majority of pure benzene capacity. Sinopec accounts for 25%, PetroChina 17%, and CNOOC 7%. Private refineries such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hengli, and Shenghong together account for nearly 24% [22][24] Group 4: Supplier Analysis by Process - For pure benzene produced by the catalytic reforming process, state - owned enterprises such as Sinopec (23%), PetroChina (18%), and CNOOC (5%) are the main suppliers, and private refineries account for 26%. The operation of reforming benzene is mainly planned, following refinery maintenance and profit [31] - For pure benzene produced by the ethylene cracking process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises is higher. Sinopec accounts for 41%, and private refineries account for 14%. The operation depends on ethylene cracking device maintenance and olefin demand [32] - For pure benzene produced by the toluene disproportionation process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises has decreased, and private refineries account for nearly 40%. The operation is flexible, depending on the profit of disproportionation and toluene demand for gasoline blending [33] Group 5: Regional Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene capacity is mainly concentrated in the East China region, accounting for 39%, followed by South China (23%) and Shandong (19%). East China is the main area for production, trade, and paper - based trading of pure benzene [38] Group 6: Hydrogenated Benzene Supply Pattern - In 2024, petroleum benzene production accounted for 71% of China's total pure benzene supply, imports 15%, and hydrogenated benzene 14% [46] - Hydrogenated benzene supply is mainly from private enterprises, and its capacity has grown slowly since 2016. Capacity is concentrated in North China and Shandong, and the industry concentration is relatively low [46][48]