FICC日报 | 2025-08-05 军工走高，股指低开高走 市场分析 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 特朗普关税政策继续推进。国内方面，商务部数据显示，上半年，我国服务进出口总额38872.6亿元，同比增长8%。 其中，出口16883亿元，增长15%；进口21989.6亿元，增长3.2%。服务贸易逆差5106.6亿元，同比减少1522.1亿元。 海外方面，特朗普称，印度不仅在大量购买俄罗斯石油，而且将其中很大一部分在公开市场上转售，赚取巨额利 润，正因如此，将大幅提高印度向美国支付的关税。欧盟委员会发言人表示，欧盟将在6个月内暂停实施原定于8 月7日对美国生效的关税反制措施，欧盟将继续与美国合作，以敲定一项关于贸易的联合声明。 股指低开高走。现货市场，A股三大指数低开高走，上证指数涨0.66%收于3583.31点，创业板指涨0.50%。行业方 面，板块指数涨多跌少，国防军工、机械设备、有色金属、纺织服饰行业领涨，仅商贸零售、石油石化、社会服 务、建筑材料行业收跌。当日沪深两市成交金额回落至1.5万亿元。海外市场，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，鉴于越 来越多的证据表明就业市 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish with a Neutral Bias [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - The market sentiment has weakened, and the glass and soda ash markets are oscillating weakly. The glass supply has not seen a policy - driven contraction, and the real - estate sector has dragged down the rigid demand. The soda ash production is high, and there are concerns about future supply expansion and weakening consumption [1]. - The double - silicon market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The silicon - manganese price is under pressure from warehouse receipts, and the ferrosilicon price is expected to fluctuate with the sector, with relatively loose long - term capacity [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures oscillated weakly yesterday. After the continuous callback of the spot price, downstream purchasing showed a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Soda ash futures also oscillated weakly, and the spot prices of light and heavy soda ash decreased [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - For glass, the supply has no policy - based contraction, and the real - estate sector has affected the rigid demand. Although speculative demand has increased and factory inventories have decreased, they are still at a high level. For soda ash, the production is down but still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is relatively restrained, but there are expectations of further capacity expansion and weakening consumption [1]. Strategy - Glass: Neutral; Soda Ash: Bearish with a Neutral Bias [2] Double - Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese futures had a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday, and the market had a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Ferrosilicon futures fell slightly, and the spot market sentiment worsened [3]. Supply and Demand Logic - For silicomanganese, production increased, iron - water production decreased, and factory inventories decreased significantly. The price is suppressed by warehouse receipts. For ferrosilicon, production continued to increase, apparent demand decreased, and factory inventories are at a medium - high level. In the long - term, capacity is relatively loose [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Bearish; Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, India's IPL urea import tender with a total of over 4.5 million tons and higher prices than the previous round boosted the urea futures price. The current urea production is at a high level with sufficient supply, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. During the export window period, the export volume is expected to remain stable, and port inventories will stay high. Downstream industrial demand shows a slow recovery in compound fertilizer production and weak operation in melamine production. The domestic agricultural and industrial demand will gradually enter the off - season, and agricultural demand for urea is weakening, leading to inventory accumulation [3] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On August 4, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,733 yuan/ton (+24). The ex - factory prices of small - sized urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 1,760 yuan/ton (0), 1,760 yuan/ton (+0), and 1,770 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The basis in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu was 27 yuan/ton (-24), 27 yuan/ton (-34), and 37 yuan/ton (-24) respectively [2] 3.2 Urea Production - As of August 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.60% (0.08%). The current urea production is at a high level, and the supply is sufficient, with the operating rate expected to remain high in the future [2][3] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 4, 2025, the urea production profit was 230 yuan/ton (+0). The capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based production are relevant indicators for the operating rate [2] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - On August 4, India's IPL urea import tender had a minimum CFR price of 532 US dollars/ton on the east coast and 530 US dollars/ton on the west coast, higher than the previous round. As of August 4, 2025, the export profit was 982 yuan/ton (-88). During the domestic export window period, the export volume is expected to remain stable [2][3] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of August 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.68% (+5.10%), and that of melamine was 63.50% (-1.70%). The number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.12 days (+0.18). The compound fertilizer operation is slowly recovering, while the melamine operation is weak [2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 4, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 91.73 million tons (+5.85), and the port sample inventory was 49.30 million tons (-5.00). With the end of the agricultural summer top - dressing season, agricultural demand for urea weakens, and upstream inventories start to accumulate [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - New capacity from Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical is ramping up, leading to significant future supply - side pressure. Currently, the peak maintenance season in petrochemical plants temporarily offsets the new capacity expansion pressure. Propane prices are weak, with PDH - based PP profit and PDH operating rate being acceptable, but cost - side support is weak. Polyolefin downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with factories mainly making rigid purchases. PE downstream agricultural film operating rate has a slight rebound, while packaging film demand is weak. PP downstream industries like plastic weaving have narrow fluctuations, and the demand side is expected to remain weak. Polyolefin mid - and upstream inventories are slowly being depleted, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year, and the short - term fundamental weak reality continues [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7279元/吨（-38），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（-24），LL华北现货为7190元/吨（-60），LL华东现货为7280元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7060元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 89元/吨（-22），LL华东基差为1元/吨（+18），PP华东基差为 - 14元/吨（+24） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 81.1% (+2.1%), PP operating rate is 76.9% (+0.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 141.5 yuan/ton (+131.5), PP oil - based production profit is - 338.5 yuan/ton (+131.5), PDH - based PP production profit is 271.1 yuan/ton (-141.6) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not detailed in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 70.6 yuan/ton (-93.9), PP import profit is - 505.6 yuan/ton (-44.6), PP export profit is 30.2 US dollars/ton (+5.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.7% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.1% (-0.1%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.8% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin mid - and upstream inventories are slowly being depleted, and the total inventory is higher year - on - year [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Downward - Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [3]

国债期货日报 | 2025-08-05 反内卷政策催化风险偏好上升，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；关税方面，中美 双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天；2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总 局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复 征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期。2）通胀： 6月CPI同比上升0.1%。 资金面：（3）央行：2025-08-04，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了5448亿元7天的逆回购操作。（4）货 币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.314%、1.436%、1.516% 和1.547%，回购利率近期回落。 市场面：（5）收盘价：2025-08-04，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.35元、105.72元、108 ...

油料日报 | 2025-08-05 终端需求饱和，大豆花生持续走弱 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4117.00元/吨，较前日变化-5.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%。现货方面，食用豆现货基差 A09+183，较前日变化+5，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆价格稳定。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/ 斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳 木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等 蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.19元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一主力合约持续走弱，国内大豆双向拍卖持续进行，拍卖成交率尚可，市场陈粮供应量骤增，加之湖北大 豆逐步上市，市场大豆供应量将继续增加，市场供大于求、需求饱和现象凸显。 策略 中性 昨日花生主力合约偏弱调整 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-08-05 供需驱动偏弱，PVC承压运行 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4981元/吨（-34）；华东基差-151元/吨（-16）;华南基差-81元/吨（-16）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4830元/吨（-50）；华南电石法报价4900元/吨（-50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格595元/吨（+55）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润14元/吨（-44）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-21元/吨（+113）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-479元/吨（+27）；PVC出口利润7.9美元/吨（+6.9）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存34.5万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存44.8万吨（+2.1）；PVC电石法开工率74.42%（-4.79%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.24%（+3.29%）；PVC开工率73.26%（-2.55%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量85.4万吨（+5.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2529元/吨（-10）；山东32%液碱基差34元/吨（+10）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价820元/吨（+0）；山东50%液 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International crude oil prices have shown a slight upward trend [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have dropped significantly recently [2] Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PTA has declined [3] - Energy: Coal consumption in power plants has remained stable recently [3] - Infrastructure: The operating rate of asphalt has been rising continuously recently [3] Downstream - Real estate: Recent sales of commercial housing have declined [3] - Services: The box office revenue of summer movies has been rising continuously [3] Policy Overview Production Industry - Shanghai has issued measures to support enterprises in increasing investment in basic research, with different levels of one - time financial subsidies for enterprises with different annual basic research investment amounts [1] - Hainan has released an action plan to build a modern industrial system, aiming to cultivate the commercial space industry chain and achieve an operating income of 10 billion yuan in the aerospace industry cluster in Wenchang International Aerospace City by 2027 [1] Service Industry - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity and guide reasonable credit growth [1] Industry Credit Spread Tracking (as of 8/5) | Industry | Current | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 82.26 | 77.04 | 56.21 | 49.35 | 0.30 | | Mining | 30.94 | 47.98 | 35.42 | 31.88 | 0.40 | | Chemical Industry | 65.92 | 62.95 | 47.54 | 45.37 | 43.20 | 0.30 | | Steel | 35.23 | 56.36 | 46.01 | 42.01 | 40.13 | 5.10 | | Non - Ferrous Metals | 37.37 | 58.80 | 48.05 | 43.33 | 41.11 | 4.40 | | Electronics | 49.90 | 78.23 | 53.17 | 42.82 | 44.06 | 0.70 | | Automobile | 54.05 | 51.85 | 37.90 | 34.43 | 32.96 | 1.10 | | Household Appliances | 35.59 | 21.45 | 46.36 | 42.79 | 41.10 | 5.80 | | Food and Beverage | 34.22 | 46.11 | 35.53 | 31.06 | 28.90 | 0.20 | | Textile and Apparel | 43.07 | 54.72 | 51.57 | 43.28 | 40.83 | 0.50 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 44.25 | 168.19 | 142.28 | 133.76 | 131.32 | 7.20 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 49.06 | 73.61 | 21.88 | 47.68 | 45.75 | 0.60 | | Public Utilities | 23.59 | 34.55 | 26.02 | 23.85 | 22.13 | 0.80 | | Transportation | 24.68 | 39.10 | 28.96 | 27.63 | 26.86 | 4.50 | | Real Estate | 198.71 | 127.12 | 95.84 | 89.30 | 86.30 | 0.20 | | Commerce and Trade | 37.22 | 21.51 | 40.42 | 37.06 | 34.73 | 0.90 | | Leisure Services | 69.22 | 124.48 | 117.80 | 105.37 | 105.65 | 85.60 | | Banking | 22.29 | 19.16 | 16.05 | 16.05 | 14.40 | 1.20 | | Non - Banking Financial | 23.00 | 35.56 | 28.84 | 26.89 | 23.84 | 0.70 | | Comprehensive | 67.78 | 51.72 | 40.12 | 36.67 | 35.01 | 1.10 | | Building Materials | 31.30 | 47.42 | 35.15 | 28.51 | 26.59 | 0.50 | | Building Decoration | 34.80 | 56.69 | 50.46 | 46.97 | 45.62 | 8.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 51.00 | 80.45 | 73.91 | 69.86 | 68.68 | 26.70 | | Machinery and Equipment | 25.71 | 47.87 | 43.24 | 40.49 | 38.30 | 11.50 | | Computer | 63.70 | 63.32 | 44.59 | 37.41 | 34.72 | 0.30 | | Media | 238.93 | 45.77 | 35.91 | 34.82 | 33.51 | 1.20 | | Communications | 26.26 | 28.04 | 30.43 | 27.71 | 25.42 | 2.50 | [42] Key Industry Price Index Tracking (as of 8/4) | Industry | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 2328.6 | - 0.18% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 8/4 | 6.4 | - 5.59% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 8888.0 | - 1.20% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 15172.2 | - 2.48% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 8/4 | 20.3 | - 0.88% | | | Non - Ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 78418.3 | - 0.92% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 22148.0 | - 2.12% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 20493.3 | - 0.89% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 121600.0 | - 0.88% | | | Black Metals | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 16737.5 | - 0.67% | | | | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 3307.7 | - 1.32% | | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 786.2 | - 0.44% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 3442.5 | - 1.57% | | | Non - Metals | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 8/4 | 15.4 | - 1.72% | | | | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 14433.3 | - 4.57% | | | | China Plastics City Price Index | Daily | - | 8/4 | 810.8 | - 0.24% | | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 8/4 | 67.3 | 3.33% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 8/4 | 69.7 | 1.80% | | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 4158.0 | 0.24% | | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 776.0 | 1.04% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 4808.8 | - 1.11% | | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 7453.3 | 0.00% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 1812.5 | - 0.55% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 1315.0 | 0.00% | | | Real Estate | National cement price index | Daily | - | 8/4 | 129.0 | - 0.82% | | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 8/4 | 115.9 | - 1.96% | | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 8/4 | 93.6 | - 0.73% | | [43]

市场分析 农产品日报 | 2025-08-05 出栏积极性提升，猪价偏弱震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13940元/吨，较前交易日变动-115.00元/吨，幅度-0.82%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.99元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+50，较前交易日变动-185；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.11元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09+170，较前交易日变动-205；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.48元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.09元/公斤，现货基差LH09-460，较前交易日变动+25。 据农业农村部监测，8月4日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.50，比上周五上升0.41个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为113.61，比上周五上升0.47个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.33元/公斤，比上周五下降1.3%；牛 肉64.32元/公斤，比上周五上升0.6%；羊肉59.58元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%；鸡蛋7.54元/公斤，比上周五下降2.3%； 白条鸡17.34元/公斤，比上周 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bearish [3] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [7] Core Views - Apple market is currently in a weak state. The off - season, impact of seasonal fruits, slow inventory reduction, and issues with early - maturing fruits all contribute to a less - than - optimistic outlook. If terminal consumption remains sluggish, the price of inventory apples is likely to remain stable but weak [1][2][3]. - The red date market shows potential for a stronger performance. Although the first - crop flower had some issues, the second and third - crop flowers have generally good fruit - setting. The market is affected by factors such as weather and the situation of the last - crop flower, and the current high inventory in the sales area and good spot transactions might drive the market up [5][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,826 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or +0.88% from the previous day. - Spot: In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price of 70 and above semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.50 yuan/jin, also unchanged. The spot basis AP10 - 226 in Shandong Qixia and AP10 + 1174 in Shaanxi Luochuan both decreased by 68 from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The price of apple futures rose yesterday. The off - season and the impact of seasonal fruits have led to weak demand. The early - maturing fruits in the west have some trading activity but with a high - opening and low - going price trend. The inventory reduction speed of Fuji apples in production and sales areas last week was still slow, and the price has become more polarized. The inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. Seasonal fruits such as melons and peaches will dominate the market, and the substitution effect is strengthening. The early - maturing fruits like Fuji and paper - bag Qinyang have shown a high - opening and low - going trend, and the coloration of Gala apples is not good [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bearish. If terminal consumption remains weak, the inventory reduction of apples will be difficult, and the spot price is likely to remain stable but weak [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 10,860 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton or - 0.55% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.20 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1660 increased by 160 from the previous day [4]. Market Analysis - The price of red date futures fell yesterday. Due to the situation of the first - crop flower, farmers have actively managed the orchards, and the second and third - crop flowers have generally good fruit - setting. The main - producing areas' jujube trees are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The total inventory in the sales area is at a high level in recent years, and the transfer of goods and downstream replenishment demand support the price increase of high - quality goods [5][7]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. The news from the production area has a great impact on the futures market. Given the expectation of reduced production and the good spot transactions, the market may perform strongly in the future, but the growth of new - season red dates needs to be closely monitored [7].