Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates on the US route increased significantly in June due to the supply-demand mismatch, but there are signs that the rates to the US West have peaked. The freight rates on the European route are expected to rise in July and August, and the peak time of the European route freight rates in 2025 is unclear. The 08 contract is in a fierce game between expectation and reality, and it is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently. The main strategy is that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [3][6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **European Route**: In the second half of June, the prices of most shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased. For example, HPL's shipping schedule quotes from June to July increased gradually; some shipping companies such as MSC announced price increase letters for the second half of June. The average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU. The expected delivery settlement price of the 06 contract is around 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract. There is still an expectation of price increase in July and August, and CMA's July shipping schedule quote on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by about 1000 US dollars/FEU compared with the second half of June [1][2][5][6]. - **US Route**: The freight rates on the US route increased significantly in June due to the supply-demand mismatch. The demand on the China - US route increased rapidly with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. However, there are signs that the freight rates to the US West have peaked, such as the decrease in the prices of Maersk on the Shanghai - Los Angeles and Shanghai - New York routes in the second week of the second half of June [3]. 2. Shipping Capacity - **European Route**: The shipping capacity pressure on the European route decreased in June. The average weekly shipping capacity in the remaining three weeks of June on the Shanghai - European route was about 280,600 TEU, and there were 6 blank sailings in total. The average weekly shipping capacity in July is 279,600 TEU, and there are 5 blank sailings in total [4]. - **US Route**: The shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. The average weekly shipping capacity in the remaining three weeks of June was 361,000 TEU, the average monthly weekly shipping capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the average weekly shipping capacity in July is 326,400 TEU [3]. 3. Geopolitical Situation The date of the next round of Iran - US talks has not been determined. Iran will respond to the US proposal in the next few days, and the Omani Foreign Minister will then determine the time and place of the next round of negotiations [2]. 4. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of June 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 87,143 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 67,155 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract closed at 1376.50, EC2604 contract at 1225.50, EC2506 contract at 1948.60, EC2508 contract at 2065.60, EC2510 contract at 1343.70, and EC2512 contract at 1520.70 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West) price was 5606 US dollars/FEU (the lowest in the year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6939 US dollars/FEU (the lowest in the year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). On June 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1622.81 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2185.08 points [3][7]. 5. Container Ship Delivery In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 7, 2025, 120 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 940,000 TEU. Among them, 36 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 544,000 TEU; 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [8].

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-10 市场短期矛盾有限，盘面震荡运行 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.75%，报2927元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.4%，报3514 元/吨。 原油价格在欧佩克会议后连续反弹，短期基本面尚可，市场存在一定支撑，但中期仍面临平衡表转为过剩的压力， 因此上方存在阻力。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体市场矛盾有限。高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需 求逐步提升，或提振亚洲高硫油市场氛围，市场短期存在支撑。但中期来看，由于高硫油裂解价差偏高，下游炼 厂端需求受到压制，叠加欧佩克加速增产的计划，在未来发电终端需求回落后市场将开始面临压力，需要裂解价 差下跌来吸引炼厂端的弹性需求。低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，国内保税港口库存偏低，市场结构持稳 运行。但随着国内炼厂检修季结束，预计低硫燃料油国产量将逐渐回升，市场偏紧的状况或边际缓和。而站在中 期视角，低硫燃料油仍面临船燃端需求份额被替代的趋势。 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-10 盘面区间震荡，市场支撑仍存 市场分析 1、6月9日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3488元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨10元/吨，涨幅 0.29%；持仓204621手，环比上涨23529手，成交263548手，环比上涨145776手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3800—4091元/吨；山东，3470—3650元/吨；华南，3460—3500元/吨； 华东，3580—3650元/吨。 昨日华北以及华南地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，山东地区沥青现货价格下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主。 盘面则延续区间震荡，呈现下游支撑但向上驱动不足的状态。就沥青自身基本面而言，供需两弱格局延续，终端 需求总体表现欠佳，进入6月份，北方地区气温适宜，部分基建项目进入施工期，但缺乏超季节性的增长动力；而 南方地区进入梅雨季节，频繁降雨天气导致道路施工受阻，抑制沥青终端消费。与此同时，目前市场供应增量有 限，整体开工率与库存均处于低位区间，叠加成本端的支撑，市场压力有限，但需求端改善乏力依然制约了市场 的上行空间。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：逢低多BU2507-25 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-06-10 政策呵护延续，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-10 需求跟进有限，尿素震荡偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-09，尿素主力收盘1697元/吨（-23）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-70）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1780元/吨（-70）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：63 元/吨（-47）；河南基差：63元/吨（-47）；江苏基差：83元/吨（-47）；尿素生产利润195元/吨（-70），出口利润533 元/吨（+17）。 供应端：截至2025-06-09，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为103.54 万吨（+5.48），港口样本 库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-09，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.47日（-0.41）。 需求端表现清淡，下游跟进有限，尿素震荡偏弱。尿素装置检修较少，开工依旧高位运行，供应端偏宽松。煤炭、 天然气等上游原料价格窄幅变动，成本端稳定延续。目前处于农需旺季，但是下游农 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is oscillating weakly with news of production cuts. The prices in the industry chain are oscillating downward as filament enterprises continue the third - round production cut plan and bottle - chip production may be further reduced [1] - The cost - side oil price is oscillating due to market concerns about OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical changes. Gasoline and aromatics have limited upside in cracking spreads, and the blending demand is not promising. The supply of PX has recovered, and its spread has declined, but the spot market is still tight. The supply of PTA is becoming more abundant, and the polyester demand is weakening in the off - season [2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - Covers figures such as TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Includes PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Involves toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Shows the operation rates of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Includes the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various polyester products, as well as the operation rates of related downstream industries in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [49][51][62] VII. PF Detailed Data - Covers the load of polyester staple fibers, inventory days, and the operation rates and profits of related yarns [75][83][88] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Includes the load of polyester bottle - chips, inventory days, processing fees, and export profits [90][92][100]

股指期权日报 | 2025-06-09 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.70，环比变动为-0.08；持仓量PCR报0.94，环比变动为-0.01； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.76，环比变动为+0.04；持仓量PCR报0.83，环比变动为-0.02； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.84，环比变动为+0.04；持仓量PCR报1.23，环比变动为+0.01 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报1.31 ，环比变动为+0.39；持仓量PCR报0.89；环比变动为+0.03； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.94，环比变动为+0.05 ；持仓量PCR报0.84，环比变动为-0.02； 上证50股指期权成交额PCR报0.61，环比变动为-0.06；持仓量PCR报0.61，环比变动为-0.01； 沪深300股指期权成交额PCR报0.59 ，环比变动为+0.02；持仓量PCR报0.67，环比变动为+0.00； 中证1000股指期权成交额PCR报0.90，环比变动为+0.02；持仓量PCR报0.98，环比变动为-0.01。 期权VIX 上证50ETF期权VIX报13.97 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-09 贵金属板块成交6422.92亿元，较上一交易日变动+89.92%；持仓金额4677.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.33%；成 交持仓比为168.08%。 能源化工板块成交3966.49亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.25%；持仓金额3683.17亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.03%；成 交持仓比为87.85%。 农产品板块成交3265.81亿元，较上一交易日变动+40.97%；持仓金额5253.12亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.97%；成 交持仓比为56.29%。 黑色建材板块成交2864.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+29.09%；持仓金额3392.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.04%； 成交持仓比为91.15%。 市场流动性概况 2025-06-06，股指板块成交3242.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-18.77%；持仓金额9299.04亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.09%；成交持仓比为34.72%。 国债板块成交2831.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-18.39%；持仓金额7924.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.10%；成交 持仓比为36.21%。 基本金属板块成交2608 ...

股指期权日报 | 2025-06-06 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-06-05，上证50ETF期权成交量为59.75万张；沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交量为58.03万张； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交量为104.25万张；深证100ETF期权成交量为3.40万张； 创业板ETF期权成交量为78.43万张；上证50股指期权成交量为1.47万张； 沪深300股指期权成交量为4.87万张；中证1000期权总成交量为16.35万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.78，环比变动为-0.03；持仓量PCR报0.95，环比变动为-0.02； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.72，环比变动为-0.06；持仓量PCR报0.85，环比变动为+0.00； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.79，环比变动为-0.10；持仓量PCR报1.22，环比变动为+0.04 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.92 ，环比变动为+0.00；持仓量PCR报0.86；环比变动为-0.01； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.89，环比变动为-0.07 ；持仓量PC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The RMB is expected to run strongly. In the short term, its trend is stronger than market expectations, mainly driven by the US dollar's correction and settlement. Despite rising tariff disturbances, the RMB's sensitivity to external trade uncertainties has decreased, and the exchange rate is generally running strongly [41][43] Summary by Directory 1. Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility of the USD/CNY option is declining. The 3 - month implied volatility curve shows that the Call - end and Put - end volatilities are equal, indicating a weakened market expectation for future USD/CNY volatility [4] - Regarding the term structure, data on the New Exchange's USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and US - China interest rate differentials for different time periods (this week, last week, last month) are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [8] Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor hovers around 0% and shows fluctuations. The 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread shows a fluctuating trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] 2. Fundamentals and Views Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy** - Fed's interest rate cut and liquidity: By 2025, the Fed's interest rate cut is priced at 49.4bp, and the pricing of the US interest rate cut has declined. The TGA account balance on May 28 was $436.6 billion, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $173.6 billion. Multiple Fed officials are concerned that Trump's tariff policies may cause inflation and impact the economy and employment [18] - The risk of economic downturn is rising. Employment is mixed (US non - farm payrolls in April decreased moderately, and the unemployment rate remained flat), inflation is falling, and the economy is marginally declining (fiscal spending has decreased, the April economic sentiment has declined, and retail sales in April have rebounded) [20] - The 30 - year US Treasury yield has exceeded 5%. Factors include the Fed Chairman's adjustment of the policy framework, the downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating, the continuous rolling over of US Treasury bonds, the possible arrival of the "X - date" in August, and Trump's tax - cut bill [24][28] - **China's Economy** - The economic structure is differentiated. In April, the overall data faced external pressure, but there may be a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of tariffs [35] - In May, the national PMI was 49.5, with a month - on - month value of 0.5, a year - on - year value of 0, and a difference of 0.2 from the recent average. Production increased by 0.9 to 50.7, and new orders increased by 0.6 to 49.8, with production higher than orders. Among different industries, intermediate goods, equipment, and consumer goods industries rebounded, while raw materials declined [37] Tariff Events - **Tariff Negotiations** - In the latest week, there have been many major events in the US tariff field. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump also proposed to increase steel tariffs. The US government has requested countries to submit trade negotiation plans by June 4th [21] - Trade negotiations among 15 key countries and regions show a differentiated pattern. For example, the UK and the US have signed an agreement, China - US negotiations have faced new discriminatory measures from the US, and India may be the next to reach an agreement with the US [21] - **Possible Negotiation Framework: "Tariff + Quota"** - India has proposed various tariff adjustment and market access plans, such as significantly reducing the average tariff difference with the US and implementing zero - tariff arrangements for some products [23] - The UK and the US have reached a principle - based framework agreement, including tariff adjustments for various products such as beef, automobiles, and steel, as well as cooperation in other aspects like intellectual property and defense [23] - China and the US have agreed to adjust tariffs and cancel some counter - measures after the Geneva economic and trade talks [23] Other Events - **The "Big and Beautiful" Bill** - It has been submitted to the Senate, and there are increasing differences within the Republican Party. The bill includes tax reform, medical reform, immigration policy, defense budget, energy policy, and education and welfare reform, which will have various economic impacts such as reducing federal tax revenue and increasing the deficit [29][30][31] - **US May "Rush to Import"** - The performance of the manufacturing sub - items in May was average. Output increased by 1.4% (previous value - 4.3%), self - owned inventory decreased by 4.1% (previous value - 2.6%), new export orders decreased by 3% (previous value - 6.5%), imports decreased by 7.2% (previous value - 3%), and new orders increased by 0.4% (previous value - 3.7%) [32] 3. Risk Assessment - The range of the basis fluctuation of the USD/CNY futures from May 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years) is between - 1100 and 900 [46]