市场分析 农产品日报 | 2025-08-05 出栏积极性提升，猪价偏弱震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13940元/吨，较前交易日变动-115.00元/吨，幅度-0.82%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.99元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+50，较前交易日变动-185；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.11元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09+170，较前交易日变动-205；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.48元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.09元/公斤，现货基差LH09-460，较前交易日变动+25。 据农业农村部监测，8月4日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.50，比上周五上升0.41个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为113.61，比上周五上升0.47个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.33元/公斤，比上周五下降1.3%；牛 肉64.32元/公斤，比上周五上升0.6%；羊肉59.58元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%；鸡蛋7.54元/公斤，比上周五下降2.3%； 白条鸡17.34元/公斤，比上周 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bearish [3] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [7] Core Views - Apple market is currently in a weak state. The off - season, impact of seasonal fruits, slow inventory reduction, and issues with early - maturing fruits all contribute to a less - than - optimistic outlook. If terminal consumption remains sluggish, the price of inventory apples is likely to remain stable but weak [1][2][3]. - The red date market shows potential for a stronger performance. Although the first - crop flower had some issues, the second and third - crop flowers have generally good fruit - setting. The market is affected by factors such as weather and the situation of the last - crop flower, and the current high inventory in the sales area and good spot transactions might drive the market up [5][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7,826 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or +0.88% from the previous day. - Spot: In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price of 70 and above semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.50 yuan/jin, also unchanged. The spot basis AP10 - 226 in Shandong Qixia and AP10 + 1174 in Shaanxi Luochuan both decreased by 68 from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The price of apple futures rose yesterday. The off - season and the impact of seasonal fruits have led to weak demand. The early - maturing fruits in the west have some trading activity but with a high - opening and low - going price trend. The inventory reduction speed of Fuji apples in production and sales areas last week was still slow, and the price has become more polarized. The inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. Seasonal fruits such as melons and peaches will dominate the market, and the substitution effect is strengthening. The early - maturing fruits like Fuji and paper - bag Qinyang have shown a high - opening and low - going trend, and the coloration of Gala apples is not good [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bearish. If terminal consumption remains weak, the inventory reduction of apples will be difficult, and the spot price is likely to remain stable but weak [3]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 10,860 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton or - 0.55% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.20 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1660 increased by 160 from the previous day [4]. Market Analysis - The price of red date futures fell yesterday. Due to the situation of the first - crop flower, farmers have actively managed the orchards, and the second and third - crop flowers have generally good fruit - setting. The main - producing areas' jujube trees are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The total inventory in the sales area is at a high level in recent years, and the transfer of goods and downstream replenishment demand support the price increase of high - quality goods [5][7]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. The news from the production area has a great impact on the futures market. Given the expectation of reduced production and the good spot transactions, the market may perform strongly in the future, but the growth of new - season red dates needs to be closely monitored [7].

丙烯日报 | 2025-08-05 原油下跌，丙烯延续弱势震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6481元/吨（+7），丙烯华东现货价6325元/吨（-25），丙烯华北现货价6160元/吨（-45）， 丙烯华东基差-156元/吨（-32），丙烯华北基差-321元/吨（-52）。丙烯开工率73%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR161美元/吨（+2），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR98美元/吨（-18），进口利润-236元/吨（+21），厂内库存33590吨 （+1840）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率36%（-2.95%），生产利润130元/吨（-15）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（+0%），生产利润-26 元/吨（+104）；正丁醇开工率96%（+9%），生产利润119元/吨（+28）；辛醇开工率78%（+0%），生产利润793元/ 吨（-17）；丙烯酸开工率80%（-1%），生产利润784元/吨（-7）；丙烯腈开工率76%（-1%），生产利润-376元/吨（+190）； 酚酮开工率73%（-5%），生产利润-560元/吨（+51）。 市场分析 供应端，天津渤化、东明石化检修，上游开工窄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday's decline in crude oil prices drove down the unilateral prices of FU and LU, and the expectation of a looser medium - term balance sheet has potential suppression on the market [2] - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has been operating weakly recently, with the market structure continuously adjusting and the crack spread significantly dropping from its peak. The spot supply is relatively abundant, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak - season procurement by power plants. However, as the price difference between the East and West regions of high - sulfur fuel oil shrinks to a low level, the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten, and the Asia - Pacific market is expected to receive some short - term support. Structurally favorable factors have not completely disappeared in the medium term [2] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market currently has limited positive factors. As the tight diesel situation overseas eases, the support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market may weaken, and there is an expectation of increased component supply. In the medium term, due to the relatively abundant remaining capacity of low - sulfur fuel oil, supply will be released once the crack profit is appropriate. Also, the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the market outlook is not optimistic [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 2.33% at 2,846 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 2.84% at 3,559 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High - sulfur: Oscillating; Low - sulfur: Oscillating [3] - For cross - varieties, the previous short positions in the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) can be appropriately closed for profit [3] - For cross - periods, the previous FU reverse arbitrage positions can be gradually closed for profit [3] - For spot - futures: No strategy [3] - For options: No strategy [3]

Report Investment Rating - No relevant information is provided in the report. Core View - The report presents the trading data of various market sectors on August 4, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - to - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day, to reflect the market liquidity status of each sector [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - to - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each sector, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][5][8] 2. Stock Index Plate - On August 4, 2025, the trading volume was 468.061 billion yuan, a - 14.90% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1092.886 billion yuan, a - 0.92% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 42.46%. There are also figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - holding ratio, and other data of each variety in the stock index plate [1][5][9] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - On August 4, 2025, the trading volume was 493.629 billion yuan, a + 29.04% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 861.900 billion yuan, a - 0.40% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 58.05%. There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - holding ratio, and other data of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][5][20] 4. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On August 4, 2025, the trading volume of the basic metals plate was 334.901 billion yuan, a - 25.45% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 478.307 billion yuan, a - 0.95% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 85.90%. The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 369.771 billion yuan, a + 32.65% change; the holding amount was 447.563 billion yuan, a + 2.00% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 87.67%. There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - holding ratio, and other data of each variety in the metal plate [1][5][29] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - On August 4, 2025, the trading volume was 448.094 billion yuan, a + 0.13% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 410.891 billion yuan, a - 0.86% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 91.33%. There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - holding ratio, and other data of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [1][5][43] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - On August 4, 2025, the trading volume was 325.261 billion yuan, a + 1.39% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 568.594 billion yuan, a - 0.59% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 50.40%. There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - holding ratio, and other data of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate [1][5][52] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - On August 4, 2025, the trading volume was 397.885 billion yuan, a - 19.64% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 376.535 billion yuan, a + 0.97% change; the trading - to - holding ratio was 99.13%. There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - to - holding ratio, and other data of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][5][57]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little. In August, both supply and demand will increase, and there may be a slight reduction in inventory overall, but the total inventory pressure is significant. With the cooling of sentiment caused by anti - involution, the industrial silicon futures market may experience a weak and oscillating correction in the near term [2]. - After continuous increases, polysilicon has seen a correction. It is expected to have strong support around 45,000 yuan/ton. The details of the anti - involution plan in the photovoltaic industry are still being determined, and the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. In the medium to long term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout on dips [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon Price and Trading Volume - On August 4, 2025, the futures price of industrial silicon dropped significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,490 yuan/ton and closed at 8,360 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton (- 3.46%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 176,164 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,312 lots, a change of - 204 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. In July 2025, the output of industrial silicon was 338,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 2.2112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [1]. Consumption - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 12,100 - 12,700 yuan/ton. The non - affected units of the Shandong accident monomer plant have gradually resumed normal operation, while the affected units need renovation and reconstruction, with the completion time undetermined. The matching degree of transactions has decreased because downstream enterprises have sufficient raw material inventories and limited purchasing意愿 [1]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish - No strategies are provided for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon Price and Trading Volume - On August 4, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely. It opened at 48,800 yuan/ton and closed at 48,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 106,749 lots (99,344 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 296,610 lots [3]. Supply and Inventory - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 229,000 tons, a month - on - month change of - 5.76%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW, a month - on - month change of 1.57%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 26,500 tons, a month - on - month change of 3.92%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.00GW, a month - on - month change of - 1.79% [3]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range trading - No strategies are provided for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The propylene market in Shandong has shifted from tight supply before 2016 to near - balance or even oversupply currently due to the high - speed commissioning of propylene plants, especially PDH and naphtha cracking plants [4][12][28]. - After the listing of propylene futures, the market mainly trades on strong macro - policy expectations. The "anti - involution" policy is expected to promote the rectification and elimination of old - fashioned plants, which may reduce propylene supply and have a positive impact, but the extent remains to be tracked [14]. - In the short term, the propylene market shows a weak consolidation. Supply pressure persists with expected increases in propylene circulation due to plant restarts and new capacity releases. Demand has some short - term support but may not be sustainable during the off - season. Cost support from rising oil prices is offset by supply - demand pressures, resulting in a downward - pressured price trend [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Purpose - Explore the impact of propylene futures listing on the industry and understand the supply - demand situation of the propylene market in Shandong [10][11]. 2. Research Conclusion - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Shandong's propylene production capacity exceeds 15 million tons, accounting for 21% of the national total, and the external sales volume accounts for 39%. It has changed from a supply - tight to a near - balanced or oversupplied market. There is a demand gap of nearly 600,000 tons, and it is a major propylene - importing province. Propylene flows in from the Northeast, Northwest, North, and Central China and flows out to East China [4][12][25]. - **Trading Mode**: Shandong is the national price benchmark for propylene, with earlier spot quotations. Contract sales in Shandong are less than 50%. Contracts are usually signed annually and settled monthly, while spot sales are full - payment locked - price. The flow of goods is determined by price differences, freight, and demand [4][12]. - **Cost - Profit**: The propane consumption of PDH plants is between 1.14 - 1.2, and the theoretical processing cost is between 1200 - 1500 yuan. The full cost of PDH - produced propylene is around 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton. Freight varies by transportation mode [4][15]. - **Inventory**: Inventory varies among enterprises. PDH enterprises generally have larger storage capacity and longer storage periods. During the research, enterprises reported low inventory and no obvious inventory pressure [4][15]. 3. Core Logic and Future Outlook - After the listing of propylene futures, the market is influenced by macro - policy expectations. The "anti - involution" policy may reduce supply, but the impact needs further observation. Currently, the market is in weak consolidation. Supply pressure exists due to plant restarts and new capacity, demand has short - term support but limited sustainability, and cost support is offset by supply - demand pressures [14]. 4. Specific Situations of Research Enterprises - **Enterprise A**: Total propylene capacity is 70,000 tons/year, using catalytic cracking. All products are sold externally. Current external sales are about 270 tons/day. The enterprise believes the market is oversupplied and focuses on PDH operations [15][16]. - **Enterprise B**: Total capacity is 355,000 tons/year, with 105,000 tons from catalytic cracking and 250,000 tons from PDH. One of the two gas - fractionation units is operating, with an output of about 75 tons/day. The PDH unit has been shut down for over three months [17]. - **Enterprise C**: Total capacity is 420,000 tons/year, with a 70% load on the mixed - alkane dehydrogenation unit. By - product hydrogen is sold externally. The acrylic acid unit is operating, and the propylene oxide unit is shut down due to profit issues [20]. - **Enterprise D**: Total capacity is 380,000 tons/year, with 80,000 tons from catalytic cracking and 300,000 tons from PDH. Only the gas - fractionation unit is operating, with an output of about 200 tons/day. The PDH unit is shut down [22]. - **Enterprise E**: Total capacity is 600,000 tons/year, using PDH. The PDH unit is operating at 90% load. The enterprise has a low - inventory strategy and is bearish on the market [24]. 5. Analysis of the Supply - Demand Pattern of Shandong Propylene - Shandong is a major propylene production and sales area, with a production capacity exceeding 15 million tons, accounting for 21% of the national total and an external sales volume accounting for 39%. There are regional differences within Shandong. There is a demand gap of nearly 600,000 tons, and the market has shifted from tight supply to near - balance or oversupply [25][27][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the roller - coaster market in June due to Middle - East conflicts, oil prices were generally volatile in July. Brent crude oil traded in the range of $65 - 73 per barrel. In the last week of July, influenced by Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil and the sharp downward revision of non - farm payroll data in the US, the oil price fluctuation increased significantly. Geopolitics and macro - sentiment dominated the oil price movement during the period with less prominent fundamental contradictions [3]. - As global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. China's high crude - oil inventory indicates a disconnection between imports and terminal consumption, which may not be sustainable. With the new supplies from Latin America, the North Sea, etc., entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year. Unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia leading to a notable supply decrease, the center of oil prices will move down [3]. - The short - term oil price will oscillate within a range. If the absolute price returns to a high level, consider short - selling in the medium - term. A Brent crude oil backwardation strategy is recommended [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Price Spread: Geopolitical Concerns and Macro - sentiment Once Again Dominate the Market - In terms of absolute prices, after the June fluctuations, oil prices were volatile in July. Brent traded between $65 - 73 per barrel. In late July, geopolitical and macro - factors increased price volatility. Geopolitics and macro - sentiment dominated the market when fundamentals were less contradictory [10]. - Regarding monthly spreads, the monthly spreads of the three major benchmark crudes remained strong in July, with the near - month premium still very firm. The shape of the forward curve showed a premium structure at the near end and was close to flat at the far end. The monthly spreads of WTI and Brent were weaker than that of Dubai. The short - end structures of CFD and DFL were also relatively firm, indicating good physical demand during the refinery peak season [10]. - For physical discounts, the discounts of North Sea oil varieties were differentiated. The discounts of OseBerg and Johan Sverdrup decreased significantly. The discount of Azerbaijani Azeri crude dropped sharply due to organic chlorine pollution. The discount of West African oil decreased slightly, while the physical discounts of Middle - East oil varieties were firm. The discount of Guyanese crude in Latin America declined from a high level. In North America, the triangular spread of WTI in Cushing, Midland, and Houston narrowed again, indicating that the tight inventory situation in Cushing had not been completely alleviated [10]. - In terms of regional spreads, the Brent - Dubai EFS recently dropped to around $1 per barrel, showing an obvious trend of the East being stronger than the West. The WTI - Brent spread was maintained at around $3.3 per barrel [11]. - Regarding refined - oil spreads, the diesel crack spread and monthly spread declined from high levels. In the short term, factors such as the continuous decline in diesel shipments from the Middle East to Europe, low diesel inventories in the West, and refinery operation issues drove the strong performance of European diesel in June. The east - west diesel spread continued to weaken, promoting more arbitrage shipments from the East to Europe and refineries to switch to diesel production for re - balancing. The diesel contradiction mainly came from the supply and trade sides rather than the demand side [11]. Petroleum Inventory: The Differentiation of Crude - oil Inventories between China and Overseas Continues - According to Kpler's high - frequency inventory data, as of the end of July, the global sea - land crude - oil inventory (excluding China and the US SPR inventory) was about 2.85 billion barrels, which was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. China's on - shore crude - oil inventory continued to increase, with a total of about 1.14 billion barrels (excluding underground SPR). China's high inventory was due to both the active replenishment of strategic reserves to hedge geopolitical risks and the passive inventory build - up caused by the decline in refinery processing volume [22]. - In terms of floating - storage crude - oil, as of the end of July, the global floating - storage crude - oil inventory rose to 89 million barrels, and the Iranian floating - storage crude - oil increased to 48 million barrels. Regarding refined - oil inventories, the global refined - oil inventory increased slightly last week, but the inventory level remained at a five - year low in the same period. Meanwhile, the European diesel inventory continued to decline, and the tight diesel spot situation had not been alleviated [22]. Crude - oil Shipments: Both Shipments and Arrivals Increase Simultaneously - In terms of global shipments, the global crude - oil shipments in July rose to the high level of the same period in the past five years. OPEC's shipments reached 20 million barrels per day but dropped below 17 million barrels per day in the last week of July (mainly due to Saudi Arabia's exports falling below 6 million barrels per day). It is expected that with OPEC's production increase and the decrease in direct - burning power - generation demand for crude oil in the Middle East in summer, OPEC's exports still have room to grow. Non - OPEC shipments reached a high of 21.5 million barrels per day this year. Latin American shipments increased to 5.3 million barrels per day, with the increased supply from Guyana and Brazil offsetting the decreased supply from Mexico and Ecuador. West African shipments were stable at 3.4 million barrels per day, and North African shipments (including transit shipments from Egypt) remained stable at 2.5 million barrels per day. In North America, Canada's crude - oil shipments remained at around 0.8 million barrels per day, and the US shipments remained at a low of 3.1 million barrels per day. The shipments from Russia in the former Soviet Union region dropped to 3.2 million barrels per day, while Kazakhstan's shipments remained at a high of 1.6 million barrels per day. Due to organic chlorine pollution, Azerbaijan's shipments dropped to 0.4 million barrels per day. In the North Sea, Norway's recent oil - field maintenance led to a drop in shipments to 1.5 million barrels per day [24]. - Regarding global arrivals, the recent arrivals rose to a high of 44.2 million barrels per day this year and in the same period of history. The arrivals in Northeast Asia remained at a high of 15.8 million barrels per day, South Asian arrivals increased slightly to 5 million barrels per day, Southeast Asian imports remained strong at 3.6 million barrels per day, the US arrivals dropped to 2.7 million barrels per day, and European arrivals increased significantly recently to 8.9 million barrels per day. As refineries reach their peak operating rates in mid - August and then decline, the arrivals will gradually decrease. Meanwhile, China's high crude - oil imports may reverse in the second half of the year, which will also drag down the arrivals [25][26]. Crude - oil Supply: OPEC Increases Production Cautiously, and Non - OPEC Non - US Production Increases Accelerate - OPEC+'s actual production increase still does not match the quota increase, indicating Saudi Arabia's cautious attitude towards production increase. OPEC's overall released supply is still very restricted. According to OPEC's plan to lift production limits, it will continuously increase production by 0.55 million barrels per day before September to completely cancel the 2.2 million barrels per day production limit. The negotiation between Iraq and Kurdistan on the resumption of oil exports has made some progress, but the Kurdish oil exports have not resumed, and the resumption requires the consent of Turkey [35]. - Recently, the supply situation in Latin America has improved significantly. Brazil's supply has grown strongly supported by the commissioning of four FPSO projects. Guyana is expected to install a new FPSO in the third quarter, one quarter earlier than the market expected. Recently, the two crude - oil pipelines in Ecuador have resumed operation, and Ecuador's crude - oil exports will resume. Argentina's crude - oil supply has continuously reached new highs [35]. - In the US, due to cautious capital expenditure and the slowdown of well - drilling and completion operations, it is expected that the US production will stabilize after reaching 13.5 million barrels per day, and the decline will not be significant. The commissioning of projects in the Gulf of Mexico will partially offset the decline in shale - oil production [35]. Refinery Maintenance and Profits: The Peak of Operating Rates is Approaching - The global refinery shutdown volume continued to decline seasonally. As of the week of July 25, the global shutdown capacity dropped to 5.2 million barrels per day. Refinery units in China, the former Soviet Union, Japan, and Latin America restarted. It is expected that the global refinery operating rate will reach its annual seasonal high in mid - August and then decline, entering the autumn maintenance period from September to October. Meanwhile, as the diesel crack spread declined from a high level, the global refinery profits decreased significantly, especially in the regions east of the Suez Canal [42]. Geopolitics: Trump Threatens Secondary Tariffs on Russian Oil, and India Will Not Abandon Russian - oil Purchases - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine situation, there has been no obvious progress in the cease - fire agreement. The 18th round of EU sanctions has increased the sanctions on Russian oil, including the implementation of a dynamically adjusted price cap on Russian oil and restrictions on third - country refineries from processing Russian oil and re - exporting it to Europe to plug the refining loophole. Trump plans to restore Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, which will help stabilize Venezuela's crude - oil supply. In terms of tariffs, Trump has successively announced trade agreements with various countries, reducing the tariff risk. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, mainly targeting China, India, and Turkey, aiming to gain more benefits in tariff negotiations. China will ignore Trump's threat of Russian - oil tariffs, and India also said it will continue to purchase Russian crude oil. India currently purchases up to 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil and is the largest buyer of Russian Urals crude oil since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There is no additional supply in the current market to fill the 2 million barrels per day supply gap of Russian oil [44][47]. Liquidity: Hedge Funds Are Bullish on Diesel, but Positions Are Overcrowded - Recently, in terms of fund positions, there has been a divergence between Brent and WTI. The net long positions of Brent funds have risen to a high level, while the net long positions of WTI funds have decreased significantly. In terms of refined - oil positions, the net long positions of European and US diesel funds are at a high level this year, indicating extremely crowded long positions and a relatively consistent bullish sentiment in the market [50]. Overall Forecast: The Fundamental Situation Will Enter a Turning Point from Strong to Weak in August - As global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. China's high crude - oil inventory indicates a disconnection between imports and terminal consumption, which may not be sustainable. With the new supplies from Latin America, the North Sea, etc., entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year. Unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia leading to a notable supply decrease, the center of oil prices will move down [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC monthly analysis: In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. The overall start - up in July slightly declined but remained at a high level compared to the same period. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the addition of 900,000 tons of new capacity gradually reaching mass production in August, PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure remains high. The export may be affected by India's import policy and the rainy season, and the domestic demand is weak. PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. After the previous macro - disturbance, the PVC trend is still under pressure [4][2]. - Caustic soda monthly analysis: In July, the upstream start - up of caustic soda remained at a high level compared to the same period. The main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production one after another, with a continued increase in start - up, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of caustic soda is high, the price of liquid chlorine has rebounded, the industry inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali profits in the later stage [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - alkali New Capacity Situation - PVC: In 2025, the planned new PVC capacity in China is 2.2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.99%. In the third quarter, 1.4 million tons of capacity will be put into production, increasing the pressure. Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 tons were completed and put into production at the end of July and are expected to reach mass production soon [15]. - Caustic soda: In 2025, the planned new caustic soda capacity in China is about 2.2 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 4.47%. In August, attention should be paid to the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang. However, due to issues such as the treatment of by - product liquid chlorine and policy constraints, the actual commissioning in the second half of the year may be less than expected [16]. Chlor - alkali Supply Situation PVC Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the support of chlor - alkali profits, the overall start - up is rising. The addition of new capacity will further increase the supply - side pressure [23]. Caustic Soda Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, the caustic soda output was 3.5833 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.88%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.12%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. In August, the maintenance capacity will decrease significantly, and the previous production - cut and maintenance devices in the Shandong main production area will resume production one after another. The price of liquid chlorine, a by - product of caustic soda, has declined, strengthening the cost support for caustic soda [38]. Chlor - alkali Import and Export Analysis PVC Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27.61% and a year - on - year increase of 21.03%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.9605 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.26%. The export in August is still expected to be affected by policy uncertainties [56]. Caustic Soda Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the caustic soda export volume was 350,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.91%. The export to Southeast Asian regions such as Australia and Indonesia is relatively large. The export is expected to be supported by the overseas demand for downstream products such as alumina [60]. Current Situation and Outlook of PVC and Caustic Soda Demand - PVC demand in July was still weak. The real estate market was sluggish, dragging down domestic demand. PVC downstream product enterprises' start - up was at a low level compared to the same period, and the demand side was difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent macro - policies on downstream demand [72]. - For caustic soda, the main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season [72]. Current Situation and Outlook of Chlor - alkali Inventory - In July, PVC social inventory continued to accumulate. With the increase in supply and weak demand, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the later stage [110]. - In July, caustic soda inventory showed an overall accumulation trend. The upstream inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the inventory pressure is expected to remain large in the later stage. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" [110].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of propylene is expected to increase, with the restart of Tianjin Bohua's PDH unit in early August and the expected release of new production capacity. The demand has staged support due to the restart of some polypropylene and octanol plants, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season. The rebound in oil prices provides short - term cost support, but prices are mainly under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances [1][2] Summary by Directory Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene prices are in a low - level weak oscillation, showing a negative basis pattern [14] Propylene Monthly Output - In July, China's propylene plant output reached 5.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,400 tons (2.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 13.0%. The output remains at a high level in the same period [22] Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The profits of propylene production by different processes decreased month - on - month. The production profit of PDH - made propylene was in the red, and the loss of methanol - to - propylene profitability deepened. In July, the overall propylene capacity utilization rate was 71.6%, with a narrow month - on - month fluctuation [24] Propylene Outer - Market Spread and Import - Export - In June, China's propylene imports increased month - on - month, driven by imports from Japan, South Korea, and increased supply from Southeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are still the traditional major import sources. In June, China's propylene imports were 253,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.0669 million tons [39] Propylene Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The overall downstream operating rate increased limitedly. End - users mainly purchased at low prices, and demand resilience was still insufficient. The restart of some polypropylene and octanol plants provided staged demand support, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season. In terms of downstream profits, the profit of the propylene oxide industry rebounded significantly, while the profit of the n - butanol industry decreased month - on - month [53] Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory in factories continued to rise, being higher year - on - year. The inventory of PP powder, the main downstream consumer, declined from a high level [75]