期货研究报告|PX&PTA&PF&PR 月报 2025-08-03 8 月 PX 供应恢复，关注成本端支撑 市场分析 价格和基差方面，7 月 PX 和 PTA 价格月初偏弱运行，随后大幅上涨，月底回落。月 初盘面震荡偏弱，需求端笼罩在淡季减产的氛围中；随后月中在反内卷政策预期下宏 观情绪大幅改善，商品普涨，PX/PTA 价格跟随上涨，PXN 从 260 美元/吨附近反弹至 280 美元/吨，终端也在原料涨价效应下集中补库；月底，在政治局会议和中美经贸谈 判落地后市场情绪回落，PX/PTA 价格回落，在现货供应逐步宽松以及主流供应商出货 下，PTA 现货基差大幅下降，PTA 现货加工费维持低位。PR 和 PF 方面，7 月原油偏强 支撑，国内受供给侧改革、"反内卷"等宏观利好支撑，聚酯原料先弱后强，聚酯瓶片市 场随原料先抑后扬运行，PF 现货加工利润整体转弱，瓶片加工费在减产下有所修复。 汽油和芳烃方面，7 月汽油裂解价差偏弱运行，美国汽油库存近五年季节性高位，汽油 市场对 PX 影响有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过多的期待。3~7 月韩国出 口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX 有明显下降。7 月短流 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China - Europe Base Port: In August, the monthly average weekly capacity was 347,300 TEU, and in September, it was 297,100 TEU. In August, Maersk added two additional vessels, and the OA Alliance added one. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA Alliance, and currently 3 TBNs in August and 2 in September [2][115]. - August Contract: The top of the freight rate has appeared. The estimated SCFIS on August 4th and 11th is between 2300 - 2400 points. The delivery settlement price has been revised down to 2100 - 2200 points. Pay attention to Maersk's Week 34 opening price [3][122]. - October Contract: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normally, October is one of the two months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The 10 - month contract price is usually 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the 10 - contract is equivalent to a spot price of around $2000/FEU. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4][123]. - December Contract: The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [6][124]. Summary by Directory 7 - Month Container Freight Rate Review - Futures Market: As of August 1st, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 75,300 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 41,800 lots. In July, the EC2508 contract rose 20.73%, the EC2510 contract rose 6.35%, the EC2512 contract rose 12.83%, the EC2602 contract rose 13.93%, and the EC2604 contract rose 13.27% [11]. - Spot Price Performance: In July, most routes saw price increases. Among the 10 routes counted by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 4 routes had an increase of over 50%. The SCFIS European route (basic port) rose 9.1% to 2316.56 points, and the SCFIS US - West route (basic port) fell 20.7 to 1284.01 points [22]. - Forward Spot Quotation: The forward quotation has peaked and declined. Different shipping companies have different price trends for different weeks and ship - departure periods [35]. Supply Chain - Overall Contradiction: The overall contradiction is small. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal is still at a low level. The container ship diversion pattern continues. The number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly [39]. - Global Supply Chain: The supply - chain efficiency is continuously recovering. In June, the comprehensive punctuality rate of global main routes was 47.58%, approaching the high in 2023. The punctuality rates of Asian - European, Asian - US West, and Asian - US East routes have all reached new highs [49]. - Port Congestion: The overall port congestion pressure is small, but there is local pressure. As of July 31, 2025, the global container ship congestion capacity was 9.96 million TEU, accounting for 31% of the total container ship capacity [56]. Capacity Supply - Global Supply: The container ship delivery pressure remains large. New shipbuilding orders are at a high level. In 2024, shipping companies significantly increased container ship orders. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the ship - dismantling pressure is limited [67][72]. - Far East - Europe Route Capacity Supply: The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships on the Far East - Europe route is still large. From 2025 - 2028, there will still be significant supply - side pressure [87][92]. Overseas Demand - Eurozone Economy: The Eurozone economy stabilized in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the GDP increased by 1.2% year - on - year and 0.4% quarter - on - quarter. The inflation is stable, and the market confidence has improved to some extent, but it is still affected by the shadow of tariffs [103]. - Import Demand: In 2025, the European import demand is acceptable. From January to May, the container trade volume between the Far East and Europe increased by 10.6% year - on - year, while China's exports to the US decreased by 10.71% from January to June [105][107]. European Line Strategy - Freight Rate Trend: The top of the freight rate has appeared. Pay attention to the downward slope of the freight rate in the later stage. The capacity in August and September is relatively high, and there are additional vessels in August for Maersk and the OA Alliance [115][122].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the overseas methanol plant operation rate dropped from a high level, but the overall operation level remained relatively high, and the supply pressure was still significant. In August, the pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports further increased. Meanwhile, the Xingxing MTO plant started a one - month maintenance at the end of July, leading to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. - In July, it was the concentrated maintenance period for coal - based methanol plants in the inland areas. In August, some plants in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were still under maintenance, and the operation rate would gradually recover only in late August. The supply in the inland areas was relatively tight. Although it was the seasonal off - peak season for formaldehyde, its operation rate had rebounded from the bottom. The operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid remained resilient, and the demand in the inland areas was also strong. The inventory of inland methanol plants decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market was stronger than the port market. - The production profit of coal - based methanol remained at a relatively high level. In terms of upstream raw materials, due to the seasonal peak of daily consumption and the increase in coking coal prices, the price of steam coal at the Inner Mongolia mine mouth gradually recovered. The coking coal market was also an indicator affecting the subsequent trend of the coal - chemical industry. - The balance sheet showed that the total inventory in August was close to the supply - demand balance, with inventory accumulation at ports and inventory reduction in the inland areas [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Basis Structure - The basis of Taicang Port further weakened, corresponding to the inventory accumulation period at ports. Meanwhile, the MA9 - 1 inter - period spread also continued to weaken. - The basis trends were significantly differentiated. The port basis weakened, while the inland basis rebounded, indicating that the port market was weak and the inland market was strong [17][20]. Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis Overseas Methanol Newly - Added Capacity - In December 2024, the 1.7 - million - ton/year Marubeni 3 plant in Malaysia was put into production. In April 2025, the 1.65 - million - ton/year VenIran apadana Petrochemical Co plant in Iran was put into production, and its operation rate was gradually increasing. In the second half of 2025, the 1.65 - million - ton/year Dena Methanol plant in Iran was expected to be put into production [22]. Overseas Methanol Operation Rate and Forecast - In July, the overseas plant operation rate dropped from a high level. The Iranian busher plant had a short - term maintenance until early August, the ZPC plant reduced its load to 50%, the Marubeni 1 and 2 plants reduced their loads to 50%, and the 3 plant had been under maintenance since late July. The Brunei plant was scheduled for maintenance in late August, with concentrated maintenance in Southeast Asia. In South America, an 880,000 - ton/year plant of Chilean Methanex was still shut down, and the Trinidad plant had been operating stably since July, indicating that the lowest operation rate in South America had passed. The overall overseas operation rate remained at a high level, and the estimated imported methanol arriving at ports in August would further increase to around 1.3 million tons, indicating continued pressure on port arrivals [26]. Methanol Import Profit and Cross - Country Spread - In July, when the overseas operation rate was relatively high, the overseas premium performance was differentiated. Due to concentrated maintenance in Southeast Asia, the Southeast Asia - China spread quickly rebounded and then quickly declined again. The US Gulf - China methanol spread strengthened, while the Rotterdam - China spread weakened. Since there was not much maintenance in Europe and the US, it reflected the difference in demand [36]. Methanol Port Inventory - The port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Jiangsu, the trading distribution center. The inventory in Zhejiang, where MTO plants were located, decreased as MTO plants redirected their shipments to Jiangsu. The inventory in South China ports also accelerated its accumulation [44]. Downstream MTO Plant Operation - The Xingxing MTO plant started a one - month maintenance at the end of July, dragging down the port demand. Attention should be paid to whether the pre - planned load reduction of the Nanjing Chengzhi MTO plant could be implemented [53]. Methanol Regional Spread - Currently, the inland market was strong while the port market was weak, and the port - to - inland return window was largely closed, resulting in a fragmented state between the port and inland markets. In the traditional downstream sector, the unexpectedly high operation rate of MTBE drove the consumption of inland inventory [57]. Inland Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis China's Methanol Newly - Added Capacity - In the non - integrated sector, the pressure of newly - added plant production was not significant. In the first half of the year, only the 1 - million - ton/year Xinjiang Zhongtai plant was put into production in May, and its operation rate was not high. In the second half of the year, the newly - added capacity was limited, mainly green methanol. In 2025, the newly - added capacity was mainly from integrated plants, and all three lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng had been put into production [64][65]. China's Methanol Operation Rate (by Process) - In terms of existing plants, coal - based methanol plants had concentrated maintenance in July, mainly in Shaanxi. In August, there were still maintenance plans in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, and the operation rate would gradually recover only at the end of August. The production profit of coal - based methanol remained at a relatively high level. In terms of upstream raw materials, due to the seasonal peak of daily consumption and the increase in coking coal prices, the price of steam coal at the Inner Mongolia mine mouth gradually recovered. The coking coal market was also an indicator affecting the subsequent trend of the coal - chemical industry [68]. Methanol Inland Inventory and Traditional Downstream Operation - Against the background of concentrated maintenance of coal - based methanol plants, the inland factory inventory remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period, indicating that the inland market was stronger than the port market. - The operation rate of traditional downstream industries declined, corresponding to the off - peak season for formaldehyde. Although it was the seasonal off - peak season for formaldehyde, its operation rate had rebounded from the bottom. The operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid remained resilient, and the demand in the inland areas was also strong. The inventory of inland methanol plants decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market was stronger than the port market [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's meeting signaled policy divergence, making the short - term interest - rate cut path uncertain. After the weak non - farm employment data on August 1st, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, with the probability of a 25bp cut exceeding 85%. The overall labor market showed structural weakness, and after the data release, the US Treasury yields declined across the board [12]. - The US Treasury maintains a stable long - and medium - term bond issuance rhythm, but the increase in the proportion of short - term bonds has a greater impact on liquidity. The market sentiment swings between "economic recession" and "policy game", and the short - term volatility of US Treasury assets has increased. It is expected that the US Treasury market will face intensified fluctuations around September [13][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Treasury Yield Review - As of August 1st, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 21bp in two weeks, falling to 4.23%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year yield decreased by 19bp, and the 30 - year yield dropped 19bp [5]. 2. US Treasury Market Changes - In actual bond issuance, the duration of US Treasury issuance declined slightly in late July, with 68.44 billion for 2 - year, 69.88 billion for 5 - year, and 43.92 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US had a fiscal surplus of 27.01 billion dollars in June, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to 1.90 trillion dollars [5]. 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures decreased slightly. As of July 29th, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers rose to 5.681 million lots. The federal funds rate futures market shifted from a net long to a net short position of - 0.13 million lots, reflecting an increased demand for hedging against the expected decline in interest rates [5]. 4. US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy - **Monetary Policy**: In July 2025, the Fed kept the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations. The policy statement recognized a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, and there was a divergence of opinions within the Fed, with two governors advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut being rejected [6]. - **Fiscal Policy**: As of July 30th, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance increased by 107.361 billion dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool contracted by 49 billion dollars in two weeks, leading to uncertainty in the short - term liquidity buffer space [6]. - **Economic Situation**: As of July 26th, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.56 (2.34 two weeks ago), indicating a short - term improvement in the economy after stability [6]. 5. US Treasury Yield Trends - The Fed's meeting signaled policy divergence, and the short - term rate - cut path is uncertain. After the weak non - farm employment data on August 1st, the market's expectation of a September rate cut increased, and the US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 2 - year yield dropping 25bp in a single day [12]. 6. US Treasury Issuance Policy - The US Treasury maintains a stable long - and medium - term bond issuance rhythm but increases the proportion of short - term bonds. The new refinancing plan is 125 billion dollars, with an increase in short - term Treasury issuance and a decrease in long - and medium - term bonds. Relying more on short - term debt financing may increase fiscal financing volatility and weaken the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [13].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rate of inventory accumulation of pure benzene at ports has slowed down, but the high - inventory pressure persists. The support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Chinese pure benzene processing fee has rebounded due to short - term downstream demand resilience, but the sustainability of high styrene开工 is questionable [3]. - Styrene port inventory has risen rapidly. In July, China's EB maintained high operation, and overseas styrene operation also increased. The export window closed, leading to a rapid decline in styrene basis and production profit. The low operation of PS and ABS has dragged down styrene demand [4]. - For pure benzene, new domestic production capacity is being released intensively, and the inventory problem persists. The basis of port spot for the 2603 contract remains weak. For styrene, it is necessary to wait for further compression of production profit and reduction of production for re - balancing [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Pure Benzene Fundamental Situation - In 2025, there are multiple pure benzene production capacity plans, with a planned production capacity of 105 million tons/year to be put into operation in the third quarter, with a production growth rate of about 4.1%. The new production capacity of Yulong will impact the Shandong region [14][15]. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - The basis of pure benzene spot to the BZ2603 futures contract and the basis of spot to the second - month paper cargo both reflect high inventory pressure. Overseas, the support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Overseas styrene operation recovery has boosted overseas pure benzene demand, and the pressure of pure benzene arriving at Chinese ports has not further increased, but the volume from South Korea to China continues [23]. Chinese Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - The high operation of styrene has boosted pure benzene demand, but the sustainability of high styrene operation is questionable. The operation of CPL has peaked, and the operation of its downstream nylon filament is still low. The operation of phenol - acetone has declined, while the operation of aniline has rebounded at the bottom [3][31][35]. Chinese Styrene Fundamental Situation EB Domestic New Production Capacity - In 2025, there are new styrene production capacity plans, including Yulong Refining and Chemical Phase I, Shandong Zhongtai Chemical (Jingbo), Jilin Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical. Jingbo has carried out trial production [40]. Chinese EB Weekly Operation and Monthly Maintenance Forecast - In July, Chinese styrene maintenance was limited, and high operation continued. There is a maintenance plan for Zhenhai Lyondell in mid - September [48]. EB Basis, Production Profit, Operation Rate, and Inventory - The basis of EB spot to the 09 - month contract has declined significantly. In July, high operation at home and abroad led to a closed export window, rapid increase in port and factory inventory, and a rapid decline in basis and production profit [58]. Overseas Styrene Operation and Cross - Border Price Difference - In July, overseas styrene maintenance recovered, driving up overseas pure benzene demand and reducing the volume of pure benzene from South Korea to China. However, the increase in overseas styrene supply has led to a decline in China's export demand and a rapid weakening of the regional price difference [64][65]. Chinese Styrene Downstream Situation Styrene Downstream Operation Rate - The operation rates of PS and ABS are still low, dragging down styrene demand. The operation of EPS has no bright spots compared with the same period [89]. Styrene Downstream Inventory and Production Profit - The inventory pressure of PS has eased, but the inventory pressure of ABS still exists. The inventory pressure of EPS has increased. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July 2024, the lithium ore market was in a supply - demand game. Holders were reluctant to sell, and lithium salt plants were cautious in purchasing. Lithium ore prices were still dominated by lithium carbonate demand [4]. - In July, domestic lithium carbonate production increased slightly month - on - month. Import volume was expected to be around 18,000 tons. Downstream production increased slightly, with more long - term contracts and customer - supplied orders, and weak spot demand [4]. - Lithium ore prices rose significantly, and the industry's overall profit increased. By July 31, SMM inventory decreased, but remained at a high level. Futures inventory declined sharply [4][6]. - In July, the prices of domestic industrial and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased significantly. The futures price was mainly affected by policies, and the spot price followed but with limited supply - demand support [6]. - In August, the lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a double - increase trend, but the price may be under pressure. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 65,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [7]. - In July, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated upward. The supply of cobalt salts decreased, and the demand was weak. The market still had room for decline [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Summary - As of July 31, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2509 was 68,920 yuan/ton, with a 9.67% increase in July. The trading volume and open interest changed, and the warehouse receipt volume decreased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased significantly compared to the previous month [2]. Price Overview - As of July 28, the average market price of domestic industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, a 21.67% increase from the previous month. The average market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, a 21.31% increase from the previous month [6]. - In July, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated upward. The price of cobalt products increased. The international cobalt price fluctuated downward, and the domestic production cost was adjusted accordingly [7]. Market Outlook - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with prices fluctuating between 63,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide is expected to move slightly higher in August, with a fluctuation range of 1,000 - 5,000 yuan/ton [17]. - The short - term market of cobalt salts may be slightly stronger. The price of cobalt sulfate is expected to rise slightly, with a quotation range of 50,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt chloride is expected to be between 62,500 - 64,000 yuan/ton. The price of tricobalt tetroxide is expected to rise slightly, with a quotation range of 210,000 - 225,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt oxide is expected to be between 190,000 - 205,000 yuan/ton [17][18]. Supply - side Situation - In July, domestic lithium carbonate production was about 84,882 tons, a 4.84% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate increased by 5.74%. Lithium hydroxide production was about 22,800 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate decreased by 2.34% [41]. China's Production Cost and Profit - As of July 28, the average market price of imported lithium spodumene ore was 673 yuan/ton degree, the average market price of African SC5% was 530 US dollars/ton, and the average market price of Australian 6% lithium spodumene CIF was 850 US dollars/ton. The cost of cobalt sulfate continued to be under pressure, and the cost of tricobalt tetroxide fluctuated [53]. Import - Export - In June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.624 tons, mainly from Chile and imported through Shanghai. The export volume was 286.735 tons, mainly to Australia and exported from Hebei Province [55]. - In June 2025, the import volume of lithium hydroxide was 1,482.343 tons, mainly from Indonesia and China, and imported through Jiangsu and Sichuan Provinces. The export volume was 6,260.074 tons, mainly to South Korea and Japan, and exported from Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Sichuan Provinces [55]. - In June 2025, the import volume of tricobalt tetroxide was 0.004 tons, a 99.87% year - on - year decrease. The export volume was 161.732 tons, a 47.56% year - on - year decrease and a 51.62% month - on - month decrease [55][56]. Consumption - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively. Policy support was still expected [75]. - In June 2025, China's total lithium battery installed capacity was 58.2 GWh, a 35.98% year - on - year increase and a 1.93% month - on - month increase. LFP battery installed capacity accounted for 81.44%, and NCM battery installed capacity accounted for 18.38% [79]. - In July 2025, China's lithium iron phosphate production was 310,000 tons, a 5.91% month - on - month increase, and the production of ternary materials was 71,300 tons, a 5.94% month - on - month increase [82]. - In July 2025, China's ternary precursor production was 68,900 tons, a 0.06% month - on - month increase and a 0.14% year - on - year increase [104]. Inventory - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 141,700 tons, including 52,000 tons in smelters, 45,900 tons in downstream enterprises, and 43,900 tons in other inventories [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel have changed little, and they are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The supply - surplus pattern of refined nickel persists, and the supply - demand surplus situation of stainless steel is also difficult to change. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations for both nickel and 304 stainless steel [1][5][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Cost - In July, the premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remained at $24 - 26 per wet ton, with the base price slightly down by 0.2%. Due to weak demand, the price of nickel ore from the Surigao mining area in the Philippines continued to decline. The CIF price of NI1.3% from the Philippines to China dropped to $42 - 44 per wet ton, and NI1.5% dropped to $57 - 59 per wet ton. The costs of various refining nickel processes fluctuated slightly, with the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate and MHP at about 133,000 yuan per ton, the cost of high - grade nickel matte and laterite nickel ore high - grade nickel matte integration at about 126,000 yuan per ton, and the cost of laterite nickel ore MHP integration at about 105,000 yuan per ton [2][7]. Supply - In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production was 210,349 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.50%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.46% and a year - on - year increase of 26.62%. From January to June 2025, Indonesia's cumulative refined nickel production was 33,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.15%. The estimated production in July was 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 114.29% [3][56]. Consumption - In June 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 33,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.19% and a year - on - year increase of 80.62%. From January to June, the cumulative consumption was 167,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.41%. The stainless steel production schedule in July was 3.3623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%, among which the 300 - series was 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [4]. Inventory - As of August 1, the global visible inventory of refined nickel was 253,000 tons, including 209,000 tons in LME inventory and 39,500 tons in domestic social inventory, a decrease of 796 tons compared with July 25 [4]. Valuation - In the short term, the cost support at the mine end is weakened due to the low utilization rate of the RKAB quota in Indonesia (only 120 million tons in the first half of the year) and the decline in the price of Philippine nickel ore. In the long term, the pattern of industrial over - supply remains unchanged. Although Norilsk Nickel has lowered its 2025 production guidance to 196,000 - 204,000 tons, the annual surplus is still estimated to be 120,000 tons. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate in the range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan [4]. View and Strategy - The recent market sentiment has cooled down. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is around 123,000 - 125,000 yuan, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000 yuan. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations [5][6]. 304 Stainless Steel Variety Cost - Similar to nickel ore costs in the nickel variety, the cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel is about 12,800 yuan per ton. The cost of Indonesian ferronickel is 920 - 930 yuan per nickel, and the domestic cost is 1,020 - 1,025 yuan per nickel. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome has dropped to 7,700 - 7,900 yuan per 50 - base ton [7]. Supply - In July 2025, the crude steel production of 43 domestic stainless steel plants was 3.2916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% and a year - on - year increase of 0.09%, among which the 300 - series was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%. The estimated production in August is expected to rebound to 3.3623 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.14%, and the 300 - series is 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.71% [7]. Consumption - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic stainless steel was 2.7807 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.42% and a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. The estimated export volume in July was 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0%, and the impact of the US tariff policy is gradually emerging [7]. Inventory - According to Mysteel data on July 31, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the national mainstream markets (89 - warehouse caliber) was 1,111,189 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.66%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 627,071 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 484,118 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.83%. For the 300 - series, the total inventory was 676,670 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1% [8]. View and Strategy - The recent market sentiment of stainless steel has cooled down. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is around 13,500 yuan, and the lower limit is around 12,400 yuan. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations between 12,400 - 13,500 yuan [9][10]. Global and Chinese Primary Nickel Supply - Demand Situation Global Primary Nickel - In the first half of 2025, the global primary nickel supply was about 1.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The supply of refined nickel and Indonesian NPI increased significantly, with year - on - year growth rates of 11% and 21% respectively, while the global FeNi decreased significantly by nearly 13%. The consumption growth rates of the stainless steel and alloy industries were relatively high, with the stainless steel consumption growth rate at about 7.5% and the alloy consumption year - on - year growth rate close to 5%. In the first half of the year, the global primary nickel supply was sufficient, with a slight inventory build - up. It is expected that both supply and demand will continue to grow in the second half of 2025. The annual supply is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, a year - on - year growth rate of about 4.7%, and the consumption is about 3.65 million tons, a year - on - year growth rate of 4.9%. The annual surplus is estimated to be 150,000 tons [19]. Chinese Primary Nickel - In the first half of 2025, China's total primary nickel supply was about 1.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The import of primary nickel increased by 5% year - on - year, and the import of ferronickel increased significantly. The domestic production of nickel pig iron also increased. From the overall supply - demand data, the inventory increased by 120,000 tons in the first half of the year, indicating a relatively loose supply. It is expected that both supply and demand will continue to grow in 2025. The total annual primary nickel supply is expected to be 2.5 million tons, the consumption is 2.28 million tons, and the surplus is 250,000 tons [35]. Stainless Steel Industry Production and Capacity - As of July 2025, the national monthly stainless steel production schedule is expected to be 3.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. Among them, the 200 - series production schedule is 1.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.9%, the 300 - series is 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%, and the 400 - series is 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% [118]. Terminal Consumption - The terminal consumption of 300 - series stainless steel is relatively dispersed, and is more correlated with the macro - economic level. The real estate sector is the main drag factor, while the home appliance sector is the main factor boosting consumption, driven by policies such as "trade - in" and "national subsidies" [141]. Profit Level - As of July 2025, for the short - process smelting of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel, the cost was 12,627 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was 0.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. For the process of purchasing high - grade ferronickel externally, the cost was 12,897 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was - 1.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%. For the process of using low - grade ferronickel + pure nickel, the cost was 15,890 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 44 yuan per ton, and the profit margin was - 20.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22% [166].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - In July, the ethylene glycol (EG) price rose and then slightly declined, with the spot basis oscillating downward. The price was influenced by factors such as anti - involution policy expectations, coal price fluctuations, port inventory, and typhoon - affected shipping schedules [2][10]. - Domestic supply of EG is expected to increase. In 2025, 160 million tons of new MEG devices are expected to be put into production, and the EG load steadily recovered in July, with the syngas - based load likely to further increase in August [3][13]. - Overseas supply shows different trends in various regions. The total EG imports from July to September are estimated to be 67, 60, and 65 million tons respectively, mainly due to the growth of supplies from Saudi Arabia and Malaysia [4][37][38]. - In July, the weaving and texturing load first dropped rapidly and then rebounded slightly. The polyester load decreased slightly at the beginning of the month but remained relatively stable. The demand side is expected to improve with the arrival of the seasonal peak season in late August [5][69]. - In July, the EG balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory build - up of about 4 million tons, and in August, it is expected to have a slight build - up of about 8 million tons, with the East China port inventory expected to remain low and slightly increase [6][55]. - The trading strategy suggests a cautious and bearish stance on the unilateral position due to weakening market sentiment and coal price decline. There are no suggestions for cross - variety and cross - period strategies [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EG Price and Basis Structure Review - In July, the EG price rose and then slightly declined, and the spot basis oscillated downward. The price was affected by macro - sentiment improvement, coal price rebound, and later by factors such as coal position limits, port low inventory, and oil price rebound [2][10]. EG Domestic Fundamental - **EG Subsequent Domestic New - added Capacity**: In 2025, 160 million tons of new MEG devices are expected to be put into production. The 60 - million - ton Sichuan Zhengdakai device was put into production in May, and the remaining two sets are expected to be put into production in Q4 [3][13]. - **EG Operating Rate and Monthly Maintenance Forecast**: The EG load steadily recovered in July at a rate lower than expected. The syngas - based load has returned to a relatively high level, and it is expected to further increase in August under high - profit conditions, leading to an increase in domestic EG supply [3][15]. - **China EG Weekly Maintenance Forecast**: No specific content in the provided text, only the title is given. EG Outer - Market Situation - **Overseas EG Monthly Maintenance Forecast**: In North America, most devices restarted in July, but US imports decreased due to tariffs. Canadian devices operate normally, and the Shell 50 - million - ton/year device plans a 45 - day maintenance in September. In the Middle East, Saudi devices restarted in June but had power - related shutdowns in July. Iranian imports are expected to be 9 million tons in July, 6 million tons in August, and rebound in September. In Asia, Malaysian devices restarted, and Taiwan devices operate at full - load. South Korean imports are relatively low [37][38]. - **Overseas EG Weekly Maintenance Forecast**: No specific content in the provided text, only the title is given. - **EG International Price Difference**: No specific analysis content in the provided text, only the title and some related chart information are given. EG Inventory Trend - In July, the EG balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory build - up of about 4 million tons, with a slight decrease in port visible inventory and an increase in invisible inventory. In August, with increased domestic supply and decreased imports, a slight build - up of about 8 million tons is expected, and the East China port inventory is expected to remain low and slightly increase [6][55]. Downstream Weaving and Polyester Situation - In July, the weaving and texturing load first dropped rapidly and then rebounded slightly. The polyester load decreased slightly at the beginning of the month but remained relatively stable. Currently, orders have not improved significantly, and the reduction in filament inventory is mainly due to downstream transfer. However, the short - term reduction pressure on polyester load has decreased, and the demand side is expected to improve with the arrival of the seasonal peak season in late August [5][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - In July, influenced by macro - policies such as "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", black - series coking coal and coke led the rise. Stable - economy policies from meetings boosted the polyolefin futures. After the digestion of positive factors, prices returned to fundamental trading. With multiple new plants coming into operation in July and more to come, the supply - side pressure is high. Currently in the maintenance season, the pressure from new capacity expansion is temporarily offset. OPEC+ production - increase plans dragged down oil prices, weakening cost - side support. Downstream demand is in the seasonal off - season, with limited highlights expected. Mid - and upstream inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher compared to the same period [1][2]. - Domestic new plants: Jilin Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year HDPE plant and Yulong Petrochemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP plant were successfully put into operation in July. Many other plants are waiting to start production, indicating continuous growth in domestic polyolefin new - plant capacity. For domestic existing plants, PE maintenance losses are at a high level year - on - year, some PDH plants have restarted, and PDH - made PP plant maintenance has decreased. Overseas, no new plants were put into operation in July, and overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties and delays may be common. Overseas PE and PP operating rates have decreased slightly. The LLDPE import window is closed, and China's PE and PP imports are continuously decreasing [2]. - In terms of inventory and demand, downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - season, with factories mainly making rigid purchases. The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film has a slight rebound, while the demand for packaging film is weak. The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products fluctuates slightly. The demand side is expected to remain weak. Mid - and upstream polyolefin inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year [2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: L09 - L01 reverse spread, PP09 - PP01 reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3] 4. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report provides charts of the main contract trends, basis, and inter - delivery spreads of LL and PP, including LL North China - main contract basis, L1 - L5, L5 - L9, L9 - L1 for LL, and PP East China - main contract basis, PP1 - PP5, PP5 - PP9, PP9 - PP1 for PP [15]. 4.2 Polyolefin Production Plan - Domestic: Multiple plants have been put into operation in 2025, and many are waiting to start production, such as ExxonMobil Huizhou's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE plant. The total planned production capacity of new domestic plants is large, indicating continuous growth in domestic supply [18][20]. - Overseas: Some plants were put into operation in 2025, and many are in the un - started state. Overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties, and delays may be common [22]. 4.3 Polyolefin Maintenance Plan - PE: The maintenance season of PE plants has ended, and maintenance losses have increased. The report shows historical maintenance data of PE, oil - based PE, coal - based PE, and alkane - based PE [23][36]. - PP: PP plant maintenance losses fluctuate slightly, and the maintenance volume of PDH - made PP plants is still at a high level [36]. 4.4 Polyolefin Monthly Output - In June, domestic PE output was 2.555 million tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons from May. LLDPE output decreased by 44,000 tons, HDPE increased by 27,000 tons, and LDPE decreased by 33,000 tons. Domestic PP output was 3.165 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from May. PP fiber output increased by 12,000 tons, PP homopolymer decreased by 10,000 tons, and PP copolymer remained unchanged [47]. 4.5 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE: The production profit of oil - based PE is - 130 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is 90.2%, an increase of 6.3% from last month. With the restart of maintenance plants, the operating rate is expected to increase [62]. - PP: The production profit of oil - based PP is - 522 yuan/ton, and that of PDH - made PP is 394 yuan/ton. The PDH - made PP operating rate is rising. The overall PP operating rate is 83.6%, a decrease of 0.6% from last month [62]. 4.6 Polyolefin Non - standard Price Spread and Operating Ratio - PE: The production ratio of LLDPE and HDPE has decreased, while that of LDPE has increased. The operating ratio of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE has changed accordingly. The non - standard price spreads between HD injection - LL and LDPE - LLDPE have different trends [69]. - PP: The production ratios of PP fiber and PP copolymer injection have decreased, while that of PP non - standard homopolymer injection has increased. The operating ratios of different PP products have also changed, and the non - standard price spread between PP low - melt copolymer and PP fiber has declined [69]. 4.7 Polyolefin Outer - market Price Spread and Import - Export Profit - LL: The import profit in East China is - 26 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 69 US dollars/ton. The import window is closed, and China's PE imports are decreasing [85]. - PP: The import profit of PP fiber in East China is - 445 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 26 US dollars/ton. China's PP imports and exports have decreased [85]. 4.8 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE: The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film is 27%, an increase of 10% from last month. The operating rate of PE's downstream packaging film is 51%, remaining unchanged from last month [109]. - PP: The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products is 41%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream BOPP is 58%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream injection molding remains unchanged [109]. 4.9 Polyolefin Downstream Inventory and Order Situation - PE: The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream agricultural film are 8.1 days, remaining unchanged from last month. The order days are 2.8 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream packaging film are 7.2 days, an increase of 0.1 days from last month. The order days are 8.1 days, an increase of 0.2 days from last month [115]. - PP: The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream BOPP are 9.1 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from last month. The order days are 8.7 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream woven products are 6.7 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 6.1 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The order days are 6.9 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month [115]. 4.10 Polyolefin Actual Inventory - The upstream petrochemical inventory is 750,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last month. As the downstream is still in the off - season in August, the inventory is expected to increase slightly [130].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3][4] 2. Core Views Market Analysis - Cost and profit: Coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, profits are narrowing [2]. - Supply: The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply. The output and operating rate of urea plants are expected to remain high in August [2][15]. - Imports and exports: After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. Urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [2][30]. - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 38.7%, and that of melamine is 63.5%. Urea enterprises' order days are 6.1 days. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of urea enterprises is 917,000 tons. As demand weakens in the second half of the month, upstream inventory begins to accumulate. The port inventory is 493,000 tons. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [2][44]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - In July, affected by the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", coking coal and coke futures led the rise, and urea futures were driven by sentiment, with the futures price rising significantly. However, after the macro - favorable factors dissipated at the end of the month, the futures price quickly declined, and the market returned to fundamental trading. Meanwhile, it was continuously disturbed by export - related policies. As the peak season for summer agricultural demand ends, downstream demand gradually weakens, upstream inventory accumulates, and urea prices mainly fluctuate weakly [9]. Urea Output - The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The domestic monthly urea output in August is expected to reach 6.1 million tons, a slight increase from July. There are few planned urea plant overhauls, and the daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply [15]. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Currently, coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, production profits are narrowing. In July, the overall operating rate of urea was 84.3%, a 2.4% decrease from the previous month. The coal - based operating rate was 84.4%, a 3.6% decrease from the previous month, and the gas - based operating rate was 81%, a 2.4% increase from the previous month. With few planned urea plant overhauls in the future, the operating rate of urea plants is expected to remain high in August [20]. Urea Import and Export Volume and Export Profit - In June 2025, urea imports were 27.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 87%. In June 2025, urea exports were 66,200 tons. After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. With the relaxation of domestic export policies, urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen significantly, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [30]. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - At the end of July, the operating rate of compound fertilizers was 38.7%, an 8.6% increase from the previous month. The operating rate of melamine was 63.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. Urea enterprises' order days were 6.1 days, roughly the same as the previous month. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [40]. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - At the end of July, the inventory of urea enterprises was 917,000 tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons from the previous month. In the first half of July, it was still the peak season for downstream demand, and urea inventory decreased. However, as demand weakened in the second half of the month, inventory began to accumulate. The port inventory was 493,000 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from the previous month. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [44].