1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the cost - side support for PX and PTA weakened slightly, but their prices rose significantly due to the expectation of tight supply and demand for PX in the first half of next year, with improved profitability. However, the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed the raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of the raw materials. The processing profit of PF was compressed due to weak textile and clothing demand, and the downstream of PR was weak, with only rigid - demand replenishment [1]. - In the short term, PX has a risk of retracement, but the medium - term expectation is still good. The report suggests short - term retracement for PX/PTA/PF/PR and mid - term buying on dips for hedging. For PTA and PX, the 2605 - 2609 month - spread can be bought after retracement [1][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - In December, Brent crude oil price broke through the lower edge of the $60 - 65/barrel range, reaching around $58/barrel. The medium - term fundamental pressure on crude oil still suppressed oil prices. PX and PTA prices rose significantly, with PXN reaching around $380/ton and PTA processing fee recovering to below 300 yuan/ton, but the spot basis did not increase significantly. PF and PR prices followed raw materials up, but the increase was less than that of raw materials. PF processing profit was compressed, and PR basis weakened with a narrowing of the spot processing fee [1][13]. - Regarding the basis strategy, the PTA basis is expected to fluctuate in January, the PX basis is expected to oscillate, the PF basis is expected to adjust passively with raw materials, and the PR basis is expected to move within a range [12]. 3.2 PX and PTA Supply - PX supply: In 2026, the new PX production capacity that can actually be realized is mainly 2 million tons from Liaoning Huajin Aramco, and the total new production capacity including the expansion of Fujia Dahua is expected to be 2.6 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%. In December, foreign PX plants operated at a high load, and production continued to increase. There are no maintenance plans in January, and PX production is expected to remain high. Overseas PX operation rate has an upward expectation [2][43]. - PTA supply: 8.7 million tons of new PTA production capacity have been put into operation this year, and there are no new production capacity plans in 2026. In December, due to low profitability, the maintenance volume of PTA plants remained high. In January, some plants will restart, and PTA load and production are expected to increase slightly compared with December [3][43]. 3.3 Inventory - PX inventory: The PX balance sheet is expected to accumulate about 80,000 tons in December. The current PX social inventory is at a seasonally low level, and the inventories in Japan and South Korea are moderately low. In January, the PTA load increase is limited, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a loose balance, with an expected inventory accumulation of about 90,000 tons [2][55][58]. - PTA inventory: The Chinese PTA social inventory decreased in December, with an estimated de - stocking of about 200,000 tons. In January, although the maintenance loss is still large, the polyester load on the demand side is expected to decline, and PTA is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory (about 70,000 tons). The near - end contradiction is not significant, but the inventory accumulation will increase in February [3][58]. 3.4 Demand - In December, domestic trade orders weakened, the weaving load declined rapidly, and the grey fabric inventory began to accumulate. Foreign trade orders started to place seasonal orders from late December, but the overall level was lower than that of the same period last year. In December, due to the rapid rise of raw materials, weaving enterprises made concentrated replenishment, and filament inventory decreased to a low level. Polyester plants operated at a relatively high load in December, but moderately reduced production at the end of the month [67]. - In January, the downstream shows a weakening trend. The recent rise in raw material prices has not promoted the sales of downstream drawn yarns and grey fabrics. The price is difficult to pass on, and the downstream operation rate may decline rapidly. If downstream enterprises stop production in advance, polyester enterprises may be forced to reduce production in advance or increase the maintenance intensity during the Spring Festival [67]. 3.5 PF Supply, Demand and Inventory - In December, the inventory of staple fiber plants remained stable at a low level, and they maintained a high - load operation. With the increase in raw materials, the profit of downstream polyester yarns decreased significantly. In January, the load may decline rapidly due to weak downstream demand, and the increase is less than that of futures. As demand weakens in January, the load is expected to decline from a high level, and the risk of high - priced raw materials increases. The market mainly purchases on demand with a wait - and - see attitude [4][91][93]. 3.6 PR Supply, Demand and Inventory - Supply: In mid - to late December, two 300,000 - ton plants of Zhuhai Huaren restarted one after another, and the new plant of Fuhai was put into production in January, resulting in a slight increase in domestic supply. - Demand: In the first half of December, the terminal made concentrated replenishment at low prices, and the factory inventory decreased. In the second half, after the rapid rise of raw materials, the terminal was cautious about chasing the rise, and the procurement was relatively rigid. In January, there are both restart and maintenance plans, the demand is weak, the supply - demand is expected to remain weak, and the processing fee space is limited [5][111].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy is neutral to bullish [5] - Red dates investment strategy is neutral [10] Group 2: Core Views - In December, apples had low inventory, quality differentiation, and stable prices, with slow de - stocking. The new - season apples had reduced production and quality, and the sales of good and bad apples were polarized in the market. In January 26, due to low high - quality fruit rate and inventory, high - quality fruit prices suppressed sales in the sales area, and low - price substitute fruits squeezed the sales space [3][4][5] - As of the end of December, the acquisition of red dates in Xinjiang was nearing completion, and the market focus shifted to the circulation in the sales area and the release of Spring Festival stocking demand. The sales area had sufficient supply but weak trading atmosphere, and the inventory pressure was high. The price trend in the medium - and long - term depends on the consumption during the Spring Festival [7][9] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (Apple) - As of the end of December, the closing price of Apple 2605 contract was 9120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 459 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.79%. The spot price of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Shandong Qixia was 8200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 700 yuan/ton; the spot price of semi - commercial apples above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 8400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] - As of the 52nd week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.82 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg and a month - on - month increase of 0.51 yuan/kg. As of December 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was about 7.021 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 272.5 million tons [2] - As of the 52nd week of 2025, the wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, bananas, watermelons, pineapples, and Fuji apples increased by 0.83 yuan/kg, 0.23 yuan/kg, 0.15 yuan/kg, 0.28 yuan/kg, and 0.07 yuan/kg respectively week - on - week, while the wholesale price of Ya pears decreased by 0.04 yuan/kg week - on - week [2] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Red Dates) - As of the end of December, the closing price of Red Dates 2605 contract was 8965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 210 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.29%. The current mainstream prices of general red dates in Aksu, Alar, Kashgar, and Maigaiti were 5 - 5.3 yuan/kg, 5.2 - 5.8 yuan/kg, 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg, and 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg respectively. The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 400 yuan/ton [7] - In December, the acquisition of grey dates in Xinjiang was nearing completion, and the ownership of the acquired goods was being transferred. The new - season red dates were generally smaller but of better quality than last year. The sales area had low trading activity, and the market focus shifted to the circulation in the sales area and the Spring Festival stocking demand [7] - The arrival volume of red dates in the sales area in December was small, but the supply increased. The average prices of special - grade and first - grade red dates in Hebei Cuierzhuang decreased by 0.28 yuan/kg and 0.47 yuan/kg respectively month - on - month. The prices of all grades in Henan and Guangzhou markets also decreased by 0.3 - 0.5 yuan/kg. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, an increase of 5050 tons compared with last month [8] Group 5: Market Analysis (Apple) - In December, the sales of out - of - cold - storage late Fuji apples were nearly over, and the trading was mainly based on cold - storage goods. The commodity rate was lower than in previous years, and the prices of good and bad apples were polarized. The cold - storage de - stocking was slow, and the de - stocking speed was lower than the same period in previous years. The de - stocking rhythm and the supply of substitute fruits in the next month will affect the market [4] Group 6: Market Analysis (Red Dates) - Currently, the acquisition of red dates is coming to an end, and the goods are being transferred from farmers and local cooperatives to processing enterprises and traders. In December, the sales area had sufficient supply but weak trading atmosphere, and the inventory pressure was high. The medium - and long - term price trend depends on the consumption during the Spring Festival [9] Group 7: Basis Analysis - The spot basis of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Shandong Qixia was AP05 - 920, a month - on - month increase of 1159; the spot basis of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was CJ05 - 665, a month - on - month decrease of 190. The basis of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan and red dates in Henan also had corresponding changes [13] - The basis is flattening, and it is expected that other regions will maintain the current basis structure. During the festival sales period, attention should be paid to the sales speed of apples and red dates [13]

化工月报 | 2026-01-04 原料坚挺，橡胶成本支撑仍存 市场要闻与重要数据 原料与价差：泰国胶水54.20泰铢/公斤（+0.00），泰国杯胶51.10泰铢/公斤（+0.00），云南胶水14200元/吨（-100）， 海南胶水13900元/吨（+0），RU基差-355元/吨（+65），NR基差458元/吨（+35），BR基差-120元/吨（+45）。 现货方面：云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15250元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前一 日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1870美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 供应方面：天然橡胶青岛港口入库率7.58%（+1.94%），其中一般贸易入库率8.42%（+2.89%），保税库入库率3.17% （-3.05%）；高顺顺丁开工率76.92%（+0.66%）。中国天然橡胶月度产量137200吨（+23700），中国顺丁橡胶月度产 量143620吨（+13500）。 生产利润方面： ...

国债期货月报 | 2026-01-04 财政供给预期升温，国债期货震荡走跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压 力不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上 更加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累， ...

FICC月报 | 2026-01-04 股指有望迎来开门红 市场分析 制造业景气度回暖。宏观方面，11月经济数据显示整体经济有所放缓，供给端整体平稳，十月节假日后生产已恢 复正常。需求端面临一定压力，内需方面尤其是商品零售端亟待提振，尽管双十一活动对消费有一定拉动，但受 前期消费国补政策退潮影响，整体拉动效果有限，消费表现偏弱，而外需边际改善带来一定支撑。随着新一年国 补政策回归，预计其对内需的拉动效果将逐步显现。投资端拖累明显，尤其是地产投资压力较大，不过高端制造 领域投资增长起到一定支撑作用。金融数据方面，11月金融总量增速与上月持平，但M1、M2增速均呈下行态势， M1-M2剪刀差连续两个月下降，这种金融数据走弱将直接作用于流动性驱动型市场，引发权益市场波动。整体来 看，11月经济亮点有限，但12月制造业景气度超预期回升至荣枯线上方，释放出边际好转信号。政策方面，2026 年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，对"开门红"诉求比常规年份更强烈，大概率将迎来增量政策，可能包括财政政策前 置发力、货币政策边际宽松等方向。 增量资金回暖。盈利层面，企业端利润有所反复，11月整体承压，但呈现明显结构性分化特征，其中高端 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side is operating at a high level, and the demand side shows weakening trends. The overall supply - demand situation is weak. The future focus is on changes in liquid chlorine prices, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details [3]. - The PVC market was weak in the early part of the month, rebounded due to macro - sentiment, and then the macro - sentiment faded, with the overall supply - demand situation remaining weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future, and attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side policies [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Basis Strategy Analysis - **Caustic Soda**: The basis of caustic soda maintains a C - structure. The spot price first fell, then rose, and then fell again. The inventory is at a high level, and the basis is expected to continue to weaken. A reverse cash - and - carry strategy is recommended [12]. - **PVC**: The basis of PVC also shows a C - structure. After the price hit a new low, the supply - demand situation improved marginally, and the basis strengthened slightly. However, it is expected to weaken again in the future, and a reverse cash - and - carry strategy is recommended [12]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price & Spread - In December, the spot price of caustic soda first fell, then rose, and then fell again. The high - level operation of production led to an oversupply situation and inventory accumulation. The demand from alumina is relatively stable, but the procurement price has been adjusted downward. Non - aluminum downstream demand enters the off - season in January [13]. 3.3 PVC Price & Spread - In December, the PVC price first fell and then rose. The high inventory led to a continuous decline in price, and the low price improved the supply - demand situation marginally. Macro - sentiment boosted the long - term demand expectation, but the overall supply - demand situation remained weak after the macro - sentiment faded [35]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has been significantly reduced and is at a low level compared to the same period. The profit of PVC upstream raw materials is extremely compressed. The price of ethylene is expected to remain weak in January [52]. 3.5 Caustic Soda Supply - In December, new caustic soda production capacity was put into operation, and the overall supply remained at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises in January, and the supply is expected to remain high due to the good market conditions of liquid chlorine [70]. 3.6 Liquid Chlorine Price and Its Downstream Products - In December, the price of liquid chlorine increased. The downstream demand supported the price, but in January, the terminal demand of some downstream products entered the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [82]. 3.7 PVC Supply - The overall PVC output remained high in December. All new production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is still abundant. There is no new domestic production capacity in 2026, and the overseas supply contraction in December 2025 provided a small support to the market sentiment [98]. 3.8 Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The demand from alumina is expected to weaken in the long - term. The non - aluminum downstream demand enters the off - season in January, and the demand of various industries is expected to decline seasonally [110]. 3.9 Caustic Soda Import and Export - The main import sources of domestic liquid caustic soda in November were Singapore, Norway, and Germany, and the main export destinations were Indonesia, Australia, and Canada. The export orders remain normal [132]. 3.10 PVC Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for PVC is weakening. The demand for pipes and profiles is affected by the sluggish real - estate market, while the film industry performs relatively well. The downstream demand is expected to decline further in January [145]. 3.11 PVC Import and Export - The BIS certification and anti - dumping duties of PVC in India have been cancelled, and the export expectation for 2026 is improving. The current PVC export maintains its resilience through price - for - volume strategy [156]. 3.12 Caustic Soda and PVC Inventory Data - The inventory of caustic soda increased in December due to factors such as production increase and weakening downstream demand. The PVC social inventory continued to increase, and the high - level futures warehouse receipts continued to suppress the PVC futures price [160].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December, the previously persistent pattern of industry prosperity differentiation reversed. The overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry significantly rebounded, with the official manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion zone of 50.3%. This was mainly due to the continuous release of the effects of stable - growth policies and the pre - festival stocking activities. However, the core contradictions in the motor and chemical fiber & rubber - plastic industries became more prominent and showed different paths: the main pressure on the motor industry shifted from demand fluctuations to severe cost shocks, leading to a collective price increase in late December to early January; while the chemical fiber & rubber - plastic industry continued to face the structural pressure of "strong supply and weak demand", with low operating rates, weak product prices, and squeezed profit margins. Overall, the challenges in the industrial chain are evolving from general demand shortages to more structural cost reshaping and supply - demand rebalancing [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Overview 3.1.1 Manufacturing - **Prosperity Overview**: In December, the prosperity of the pharmaceutical and textile - clothing industries increased significantly, while that of the petroleum and metal products industries declined [8] - **Demand Overview**: In December, the demand for the pharmaceutical and textile - clothing industries increased, while that for the petroleum and electronic information industries declined [8] - **Supply Overview**: In December, the supply of the chemical, automotive, textile - clothing, and pharmaceutical industries increased significantly, while that of the agricultural and sideline food, petroleum, and general equipment industries declined [8] - **Inventory Overview**: In December, the inventory of the chemical, motor equipment, and special equipment industries increased, while the non - metallic products, agricultural and sideline food, and metal products industries reduced their inventory [8] - **Export Sub - sectors**: In December, the exports of the non - ferrous metal processing, non - metallic products, and tobacco products industries declined significantly [8] - **Cost Sub - sectors**: In December, the costs of the textile - clothing, apparel, and cultural, educational, and sports goods industries declined significantly [8] - **Income Sub - sectors**: In December, the incomes of the textile - clothing, apparel, and wine, beverage, and refined tea industries declined significantly [8] - **Profit Sub - sectors**: In December, the profits of the tobacco products, printing, and reproduction media industries declined significantly [8] 3.1.2 Non - manufacturing - **Prosperity Overview**: In December, the prosperity of the civil engineering, environmental, and construction industries increased, while that of the postal, information, and accommodation industries declined [23] - **Demand Overview**: In December, the demand for the building installation and decoration, environmental, and construction industries increased, while that for the aviation, postal, and civil engineering industries declined [23] - **Supply Overview**: In December, the supply of the environmental and construction industries increased significantly, while that of the postal and civil engineering industries declined [23] - **Inventory Overview**: In December, the inventory of the construction industry increased, while the IT and aviation industries reduced their inventory [23] 3.2 Chemical Product Price Fluctuations Squeeze Mid - stream Profits - **Price Trends of Chemical Products**: In December, most major chemical products rose in price, with a few declining. PTA/PX prices continued to rise in December due to upstream cost support and low mid - stream operating rates; urea prices were supported by supply contraction from gas - head device maintenance and seasonal demand for compound fertilizer production; PVC price increases were driven by macro - policy expectations and commodity market sentiment; ethylene glycol prices were mainly affected by raw material cost support and market expectations of possible production conversion in EO/EG co - production plants. PP and PE prices declined due to supply - side pressure and weak downstream demand [29] - **Situation of the Textile and Chemical Fiber Industry Chain**: In December, the textile and chemical fiber industry chain showed a typical pattern of "hot upstream and cold downstream". The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and PTA continued to rise, but the price transmission to the mid - stream polyester segment was blocked. The profit margins of mid - stream textile manufacturing enterprises were severely squeezed. The textile and clothing, apparel industries have entered the production off - season, and production cuts may be a future direction. The comprehensive operating rate of the polyester industry has been declining since December, and it is expected to drop by more than 5 percentage points in January. High upstream raw material inventories and falling operating rates may suppress the profit margins of the entire industrial chain [29][30][31] 3.3 Real Estate Downstream Consumption Warms Up - **Market Performance**: From November to December 2025, the downstream real estate sales in China showed signs of a phased recovery. The new - home market saw an increase in new supply and a decrease in inventory in November, and the transaction area continued to grow in December. The second - hand housing market also had significant month - on - month growth in transaction areas in November and December. Nationally, the unsold commercial housing area decreased in November [39] - **Reasons for the Recovery**: The policy environment has been continuously optimized, releasing demand; real - estate developers actively promoted projects to meet annual performance targets; the market showed structural differentiation, with core cities and high - quality projects acting as stabilizers. However, the current recovery is a month - on - month improvement based on a deep year - on - year adjustment, and most transaction data still have large year - on - year declines, with housing prices still in a downward trend. The market is still in the bottom - building stage of the transformation from the old to the new model [39][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The online quotes of shipping lines such as MSC and Maersk increased in the second half of January, causing the valuation of the 02 contract to rise continuously [1][4][5]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract," including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [4]. - The far - month contracts are under pressure from the resumption of the Suez Canal, and their valuations may be revised downward, but there is still uncertainty in the adjustment space. Contracts in June and August, which are relatively peak seasons, still face uncertainty [6]. - The 02 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the unilateral strategy, and there is no recommendation for the arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of January 4, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 54,478 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 26,823 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1801.30, 1166.00, 1367.90, 1500.00, 1060.00, and 1297.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - Shipping lines' online quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route changed in January. For example, Maersk's quote in the second week of January was 1600/2580, and in the third week it was 1625/2610; HPL's quote in the first half of January was 1835/3035, and in the second half it was 2135/3535. MSC's price in the first half of January was 1700/2840, and in the second half it was 1880/3140 [1]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on December 26 was 1690 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2188 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3033 dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on December 29 was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1301.41 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply Static Supply - As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU [2]. - For ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, the expected delivery in 2026 is 781,200 TEU (53 ships), 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, the expected delivery in 2026 is 210,400 TEU (9 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029 [2]. Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in January was 318,600 TEU, with capacities of 355,600, 309,400, 330,700, and 278,700 TEU in Weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. In February, the average weekly capacity was 283,500 TEU, and in March it was 272,400 TEU [3]. - There were 3 blank sailings (2 by the OA Alliance and 1 by the PA Alliance) and 1 TBN (1 by the OA Alliance) in January, 7 TBNs (4 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 4 blank sailings in February, and 3 blank sailings and 7 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is progressing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026 is relatively high. Currently, CMA's FAL1 route (Europe - Asia) has fully resumed operation since January 2026, and the FAL3 route has started a single - trial operation. Maersk's container ship "Maersk Sebarok" completed its first Red Sea voyage since its withdrawal in January 2024 on December 19, 2025 [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy No relevant detailed analysis content provided in the text.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [4] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [6] - Options: Hold off [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long term, gold remains a hard-to-replace alternative asset to the US dollar, and with the expected downward movement of real interest rates in the future, it is recommended to buy on dips. However, there is a risk of further short-term corrections. Silver showed a strong unilateral upward trend in December, with a short-term sharp correction near the end of the year. Short-term risk assets still face a risk of decline, and it is advisable to take a wait-and-see approach [4][5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market News and Key Data - Precious Metals Main Logic - **Interest Rates**: In December 2025, the Fed's last rate cut of the year was implemented, with the federal funds rate target range lowered to 3.50%–3.75%. The market generally interprets the monthly purchase of about $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting from December 12 as a loose signal. There are significant differences in the outlook for the Fed's rate cut path in 2026, and the overall tone for the rate cut rhythm is neutral [1] - **Inflation**: In December 2025, the breakeven inflation rate increased by 2BP to 2.25%. In November, the core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest since early 2021, lower than the expected 3%. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to data collection interference [2] - **Exchange Rates**: In December 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 1.18%. The US dollar index continued to be weak in December, with the market fully pricing in the Fed's rate cut expectations. President Trump's statement about a nominee for the next Fed chair who supports "substantial" rate cuts further weakened the US dollar index [2] - **Market Risk Pricing**: The VIX index rose slightly at the end of December. Trump will sign a nearly $1 trillion annual defense policy bill. The 2026 Fiscal Year National Defense Authorization Act approves annual military spending of $901 billion, a record high. Uncertainty remains high regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict peace agreement [3] - **ETF Holdings**: As of December 31, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1070.56 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16444.14 tons. Global precious metal ETF physical holdings continued to rise in 2025, driving up the prices of gold and silver [3] Strategy - **Gold**: Although the gold price has declined in the short term, it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy the Au2604 contract at 970 yuan/g - 980 yuan/g [4] - **Silver**: Silver showed a strong upward trend in December and a short-term sharp correction near the end of the year. It is advisable to take a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with the price oscillating between 16,500 yuan/kg - 18,000 yuan/kg [5] Basis Analysis of Precious Metals - **Gold Basis**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange spot price is stronger than the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold price. The market still expects future Fed monetary easing, and the logic of gold as a substitute for US dollar assets is being realized. The strategy is to short the basis and close the position when the spot discount converges [9] - **Silver Basis**: The tight silver spot inventory has led to a short squeeze in the market. The strategy is to go long on the basis and close the position when the futures discount converges [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current inventory pressure at ports remains high, and it is necessary to wait for a further decline in Iranian shipments. The impact of plant maintenance on actual shipment volume decline needs further confirmation. The port inventory increased rapidly in late December and returned to a historical high. - The supply pressure of coal - based methanol inland is still significant, while the southwest gas - based methanol is in winter maintenance. The traditional downstream demand is in the off - season, and the factory inventory is in the rebuilding cycle. - Suggested strategies include cautiously going long on a single - side basis for hedging, widening the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low, and narrowing the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [1][3][7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Basis Strategy - **Basis Status**: The basis of Taicang against the MA2605 contract is still weak, oscillating between - 40 and - 15 yuan/ton. The basis of Inner Mongolia's northern line against MA2605 has dropped from + 500 yuan/ton to below + 200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Basis Analysis and Forecast**: Due to large port inventory and waiting for a decline in January shipments, the port basis is expected to oscillate between - 30 and 0 yuan/ton. Inland, due to high coal - based methanol production and the off - season of traditional downstream industries, the factory inventory is rebuilding, and the inland basis is expected to further weaken to the range of + 100 to + 200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Basis Strategy**: Wait for a further decline in Iranian shipments and a drop in Chinese arrivals. For the spread, go long on MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low. Pay attention to the decline in the off - season of traditional downstream industries for Inner Mongolia's basis [11]. II. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - Period Spreads No specific new content other than basis analysis is provided in the given text. III. Methanol Overseas and Inland Supply - **Overseas Supply**: Overseas methanol monthly output is 4,001,517 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.96% (unchanged). China's monthly methanol import volume is 1,417,590 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.64%. Iranian winter maintenance has started, but the decline rate of actual shipments is slow [1]. - **Inland Supply**: China's monthly methanol output is 9,071,285 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.88%. The operating rate is 90.97% (+ 0.45%). Coal - based methanol production in December further increased, and the southwest gas - based methanol is in winter maintenance, initially planned until mid - to late January [1]. - **Production Plan**: There are multiple methanol production projects in China with different production times, matching downstream facilities, and production capacities [27]. IV. Methanol Downstream Demand - **Port MTO Demand**: The operating rate of external methanol - purchasing MTO enterprises is 85.66% (- 0.34%). Methanol - to - olefin production is 1,711,511 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. Ningbo Fude's MTO unit started maintenance on December 8 for 45 days. Pay attention to the possibility of Xingxing MTO maintenance in January and the commissioning progress of Guangxi Huayi MTO in the second quarter of 2026 [2]. - **Inland Traditional Downstream Demand**: Formaldehyde production is 1455000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%; glacial acetic acid production is 1,095,550 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.47%; MTBE production is 1,804,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.56%; dimethyl ether production is 42,030 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.26%. The operating rates of different products vary, with formaldehyde in the off - season and acetic acid's operating rate rising from the bottom [2]. - **Inland MTO Demand**: The weekly procurement volume of northwest MTO enterprises is 56,500 tons (+ 10,500). Luxi MTO maintains a low - load operation, while the new Lunan Lianhong Phase II MTO unit was put into operation on December 10, driving new inland MTO demand [3]. V. Methanol Port Inventory and Inland Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Methanol port inventory is 1,477,408 tons (+ 64,899), including 843,845 tons in Jiangsu (+ 28,554), 203,300 tons in Zhejiang (+ 11,300), 214,000 tons in Guangdong (- 19,000), and 216,263 tons in Fujian (+ 44,045). The inventory of MTO sample enterprises is 760,000 tons (+ 70,000). The port inventory pressure is still large due to the delayed unloading and reduced demand for port - to - inland shipments [3]. - **Inland Inventory**: China's inland methanol factory inventory is 422,590 tons (+ 18,620), with 253,500 tons in the northwest factory warehouse (+ 22,000). The factory inventory is in the rebuilding cycle due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries and high coal - based supply pressure [3].