Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - The support for Shanghai zinc is clear. The TC of domestic and overseas zinc mines has decreased, squeezing the smelting profit, suppressing smelting enthusiasm, and reducing supply - side pressure. Overseas warehouse - receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with micro - data turning from bearish to bullish under a positive macro - background [1][4] Key Points by Content Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $117.04/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 75 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,565 yuan/ton and closed at 22,680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 71,426 lots, and the position was 105,905 lots. The highest price was 22,695 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,565 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,875 tons, up 575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In November, domestic and overseas zinc mine TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. Overseas warehouse - receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The futures market of lithium carbonate is in high - level oscillation with light spot trading. While recent inventory reduction supports the futures price, the downstream is reluctant to purchase at 85,000 yuan/ton. With the progress of mine restart, the market may turn from de - stocking to inventory accumulation if consumption weakens, leading to a potential decline in the futures price [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On November 12, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 86,760 yuan/ton and closed at 86,580 yuan/ton, a - 0.21% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,145,329 lots, and the open interest was 528,966 lots, up from 526,493 lots the previous day. The basis was - 4,400 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warrants was 2,8287 lots, an increase of 188 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,400 - 85,200 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 80,600 - 81,600 yuan/ton, also up 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,020 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [2]. - The downstream material factories are cautious, only making rigid - demand purchases. The market trading is mainly post - pricing. Upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, focusing on coefficients [2]. - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with both spodumene and salt - lake production ends having an operating rate of over 60%. The domestic lithium carbonate output in November is expected to be similar to that in October [2]. - In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle market in the power sector and the energy - storage market are both booming, with supply in the energy - storage market remaining tight [2]. Corporate News - On November 12, Haibo Sichuang announced a ten - year strategic cooperation agreement with CATL from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2035. Haibo Sichuang will purchase battery cells and system products from CATL, and CATL will ensure product quality and provide preferential supply and competitive prices. The cumulative purchase volume from 2026 to 2028 will be no less than 200 GWh [3]. Strategy - Short - term: It is advisable to wait and see, pay attention to inventory and consumption turning points and the restart of mines, and sell hedging at high prices when appropriate. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Low inventory and tight ore supply support lead prices, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the decline in battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may cause the price to fall after rising. High - sell and low - buy strategies can be adopted, with the price range between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On November 12, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$20.89/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 17,485 yuan/ton, closed at 17,660 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 55,843 lots, an increase of 24,988 lots, and the holding volume was 50,539 lots, a decrease of 4,568 lots. The night - session closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream battery enterprises mainly took delivery through long - term contracts, and the market trading was fair [2]. - **Inventory**: On November 12, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 33,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared with last week. As of November 12, the LME lead inventory was 225,225 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - **Absolute price strategy**: Adopt a high - sell and low - buy strategy in the price range of 17,000 yuan/ton to 17,700 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations [3]. - **Option strategy**: Sell wide straddle [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Urea spot new orders follow-up slowed down, and the futures market rose slightly due to export news. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is winding up, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. The overall operating rate remains stable. Melamine operating rate increased slightly, with rigid demand procurement. In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain loose due to new capacity release. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, and inventory decreased. The high inventory area is still Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start-up rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light storage rhythm. The news of the fourth batch of 600,000 tons of export quotas has improved the year-end export expectation of urea, which is expected to support the spot market. India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tender on November 7, with an intention to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender will close on November 20, be valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 12, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,655 yuan/ton (+15). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was -55 yuan/ton (-25), in Henan was -45 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was -55 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 12, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (up 0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 12, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (-10), and the export profit was 930 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Not specifically summarized in the text, but the export profit is mentioned in the price and basis section, with an export profit of 930 yuan/ton (-1) on November 12, 2025 [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 12, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (unchanged), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (up 3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US government is about to end its shutdown, the US dollar has risen and then fallen, and funds have started to shift between high - and low - risk assets, leading to a divergence in the trends of the Dow and the Nasdaq. Domestically, the rotation rhythm in the market has accelerated, the dividend sector has become active again, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to recover after hitting a low, and it still fluctuates around 4000 points. The recent phased adjustment of the technology sector is closely related to the new fund regulations. The requirement that the investment style of funds should not deviate has prompted funds to be re - allocated from the popular technology field [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - China and Spain strengthen cooperation. After the meeting between the Chinese President and the King of Spain, the two sides witnessed the signing of 10 cooperation documents in economic, trade, scientific, and educational fields. The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill, and the longest - ever federal government shutdown in US history may end [1] - In the spot market, A - share indices recovered after hitting a low. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to close at 4000.14 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.39%. Most sector indices declined, with home appliances, textile and apparel, and petroleum and petrochemical industries leading the gains, while power equipment, machinery, and computer industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 1.9 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow rising 0.68% to a new high [1] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased [1] Strategy - Overseas, the US government's impending end of the shutdown and the shift of funds between high - and low - risk assets have led to a divergence in the trends of the Dow and the Nasdaq. Domestically, the rotation rhythm in the market has accelerated, the dividend sector has driven the Shanghai Composite Index to recover after hitting a low, and the technology sector's adjustment is related to new fund regulations [2] Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [6][7] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on November 12, 2025: the Shanghai Composite Index was at 4000.14, down 0.07% from the previous day; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13691.38, up 1.95%; the ChiNext Index was at 3122.03, down 0.39%; the CSI 300 Index was at 4645.91, down 0.13%; the SSE 50 Index was at 3044.30, up 0.32%; the CSI 500 Index was at 7243.25, down 0.66%; the CSI 1000 Index was at 7486.38, down 0.72% [12] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 120690 (an increase of 10290), and the open interest was 273421 (an increase of 10237) [14] - The basis of stock index futures showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 0.91 (an increase of 11.06) [39] - The inter - period spreads of stock index futures also had various changes, such as the next - month minus current - month spread of IF with a current value of - 17.00 and a change of - 3.60 [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are weak, and both are continuing to find their bottoms. The nickel market is in a situation of "tightening in the long - term, but loose in the short - term" due to the new Indonesian policy, and stainless steel is affected by factors such as real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports [1][3]. - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, but attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices. Stainless steel prices are also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to low demand, inventory accumulation, and a downward shift in cost centers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,300 yuan/ton and closed at 118,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,248 (+28,336) lots, and the open interest was 116,829 (1,929) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern. The new Indonesian policy on nickel smelter investment restrictions may tighten capacity expansion in the long - term, but the short - term production capacity of wet - process intermediate products is still being released. The weak stainless - steel consumption on the demand side leads to insufficient rebound power in the Shanghai nickel market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market is calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is affected by typhoons, and the shipping efficiency is delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron plants have a lower psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November is expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. After the Shanghai nickel price fell below 120,000 yuan, the spot market is more watchful, and trading is light. The spot premiums of various brands have not changed. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,824 (-468) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,114 (-1,194) tons [2]. Strategy - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,520 yuan/ton and closed at 12,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,852 (-22,462) lots, and the open interest was 137,838 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel prices, the contract continued its weak oscillation. Although domestic steel mills' losses are increasing, the inertia of capacity release remains, and the demand side is still sluggish due to factors such as the real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports. Overall, stainless steel is still in a bottom - grinding state [3]. - **Spot**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and spot trading is sluggish. Many traders are selling at low prices to recover funds, and the daily quotes continue to decline slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,825 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 335 to 685 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 909.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - The cost of natural rubber is strongly supported, but with the increase in supply later, the supply - demand drive is weak. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to continue to widen. The supply of BR is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and it mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene. The weak situation of butadiene may continue, but the loss of production profit may suppress later output [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,220 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,180 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,430 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai No. 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian No. 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Heavy - truck Market**: In October 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million vehicles after November [2] - **Global Natural Rubber**: ANRPC predicted that in September 2025, the global natural rubber production would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - **China's Rubber Imports**: In October 2025, China imported a total of 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [2] - **Thailand's Rubber Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% [3] - **Passenger - car Market**: In October 2025, the retail sales volume of the national passenger - car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - **EU Passenger - car Market**: In September 2025, the sales volume of the EU passenger - car market increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the RU basis was - 470 yuan/ton (+25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 520 yuan/ton (+25), the NR basis was 924.00 yuan/ton (+45.00), etc. [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai glue was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [5] - **开工率**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+0.77%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 449,455 tons (+1,787), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+345), the RU futures inventory was 118,970 tons (-1,930), and the NR futures inventory was 48,586 tons (+3,931) [6] Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the BR basis was - 80 yuan/ton (-40), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - **开工率**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 66.02% (-0.88%) [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (-160), and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (-1,430) [9]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-13 市场弱势尚未逆转，反弹动力不足 市场分析 1、11月12日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3063元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨0.86%；持仓 198272手，环比增加4444手，成交183695手，环比下降68513手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3700元/吨；山东，2980—3620元/吨；华南，3150—3320元/吨； 华东，3300—3400元/吨。 原油价格反弹遇阻，沥青市场上涨动力仍有限。现货方面，昨日华北、华东、华南以及川渝地区沥青现货价格出 现下跌，其余地区相对稳定。沥青基本面依然表现疲软，具备配额的炼厂还有利润空间，近期华北低价远期资源 集中释放，而终端需求整体欠佳，市场实际交投氛围一般，多数区域观望情绪浓厚，抄底意愿不足。整体来看， 沥青市场弱势尚未逆转，建议保持谨慎。 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity, while demand is weak with low procurement sentiment. Export orders are declining, and inventory is high, putting pressure on prices. However, future policies need to be monitored [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply is increasing as maintenance decreases, and demand varies by region and industry. There are inventory differences between Shandong and Jiangsu, and future price support depends on new alumina plant procurement [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4581 yuan/ton (+9), with an East China basis of -51 yuan/ton (-9) and a South China basis of -11 yuan/ton (-29) [1]. - **Spot Price**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4530 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4570 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The price of semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of calcium carbide is 2830 yuan/ton (+0). The calcium carbide profit is - 100 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 769 yuan/ton (-6), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 465 yuan/ton (+79), and the PVC export profit is 9.3 dollars/ton (+1.0) [1]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: PVC factory inventory is 33.5 tons (-0.3), social inventory is 54.6 tons (+0.1). The calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 80.17% (+3.70%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 77.23% (-1.27%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.28% (+2.19%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 74.2 tons (-3.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2344 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 125 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1478 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 854.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 17.47 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (-90.30) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (-2.78), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+0.17), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.80% (+0.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The alumina operating rate is 85.25% (-0.61%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 68.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.60% (-0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Two new units were under maintenance this week, but new production capacity is gradually being put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have decreased, and low - price procurement has improved, but overall procurement sentiment is average [3]. - Export: Exports are based on price - for - volume, and export orders are declining. India's anti - dumping tax is expected to be implemented in November, and an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers has been launched [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the absolute inventory value is high. PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, suppressing futures prices [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Maintenance of units has decreased, and the operating rate has increased. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the alumina operating rate in Hebei has slightly decreased. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will weaken in the off - season [3]. - Inventory: There are differences in inventory between Shandong and Jiangsu. Shandong has an overall inventory increase, while Jiangsu has a decrease [3]. - Price: The procurement price of new alumina plants may support prices, and cost support exists due to the increase in Shandong's electricity price in November and the relatively weak liquid chlorine price [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound and weak, with opportunities for positive cash - and - carry arbitrage [4]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound [5]. - Inter - period: Positive arbitrage for SH12 - 01 at low prices [5]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The EG market has high supply, with the domestic ethylene glycol load operating at a high level and overseas device changes being limited. The arrival plan around mid - November is still moderately high, and port inventories are expected to gradually rise. Although the polyester downstream has moderately improved with the cooling, the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - In terms of strategies, for the single - side operation, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. For the inter - period operation, an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 is recommended. There is no cross - variety strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3891 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton, +0.41% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 3953 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton, - 0.65% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was 62 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 61 US dollars/ton (down 4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 949 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No relevant content is provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons (up 9.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 56.4 tons (up 6.5 tons month - on - month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.1 tons, and at the secondary ports are 4.7 tons, indicating a high planned arrival volume and expected inventory accumulation [1].