油脂月报 | 2026-01-04 油脂供应端约束将逐步显现 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，12月收盘棕榈油2605合约8584元/吨，环比下跌178元，跌幅2.03%；12月收盘豆油2605合约7862 元/吨，环比下跌218元，跌幅2.7%；12月收盘菜油2605合约9087元/吨，环比下跌320元，跌幅3.4%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格8570元/吨，环比下跌150元/吨，跌幅1.72%，现货基差P05-14，环比上涨28元；天津 地区一级豆油现货8250元/吨，环比下跌190，跌幅2.25%，现货基差Y05+388，环比上涨28；江苏地区四级菜 油现货价格9830元/吨，环比下跌38元，跌幅0.38%，现货基差OI05+743，环比上涨282。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，USDA：全球2025/26年度棕榈油产量预计为8001.6万吨，较上月预估下修80万吨。SPPOMA：2025 年12月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少8.49%，出油率环比上月同期减少0.12%，产量环比上月同 期减少9.12%。据海关总署数据显示，2025年11月我国棕榈油脂合计进口40.5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - As the situation in Venezuela escalates, the risk on the raw material side of asphalt is increasing. If the supply of Venezuelan oil continues to tighten, leading to a rise in the cost center of asphalt refineries, there is room for further rebound in asphalt spot and futures prices [1][12]. - Domestically, with the marginal easing of supply pressure and the stabilization of the spot market, the bottom signal of the asphalt futures market is gradually consolidating. However, the real - world fundamentals are still relatively weak, and the potential upward driver of the market comes from the raw material side [1][26]. - The winter storage demand is gradually being released, and the bottom signal of the spot market is emerging. The supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spot market in the north has stabilized first. The market pressure in the south has also eased recently, and prices are showing signs of a rebound [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Venezuela Situation Continues to Escalate, and the Risk on the Asphalt Raw Material Side Increases - The US sanctions on Venezuela this year have had a repeated impact on the supply and pricing of Venezuelan oil, which has been transmitted to the domestic market. In the first half of the year, the sanctions mainly focused on the economic level, and the changes in oil license permissions had the most significant impact on oil supply and logistics [7][8]. - In the fourth quarter, the US countermeasures against Venezuela expanded from the economic to the military level. The situation in South America further escalated, and the shipping volume of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia decreased significantly. The floating and in - transit inventories of Merey crude oil also increased significantly [8][11]. - If the US blockade of Venezuela continues and Venezuela cannot find effective ways to circumvent it, the supply of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia will tighten, and domestic refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil and fuel oil from other regions, but the raw material cost will rise significantly [12]. Winter Storage Demand is Gradually Released, and the Bottom Signal of the Spot Market Appears - Previously, due to the decline in oil prices and the discount of diluted asphalt, refinery profits improved, and major refineries released low - price resources. Terminal demand was weak, and the spot market was under pressure. Recently, with the release of winter storage demand, the supply pressure has eased marginally, and the spot market in the north has stabilized first [25]. - The market in South China was weaker. Recently, major refineries released more supplies, and the spot price fell continuously. With the increase in raw - material - side sentiment in the futures market, the basis in South China decreased, and the spot - futures arbitrage window opened, stimulating spot - side buying [25]. - After the concentrated release of selling pressure in December, the supply from refineries in South China decreased, and the market pressure eased. Prices have shown signs of a rebound recently [25]. Investment Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the main BU contract at low prices, and avoid chasing the rise [2]. - Inter - period: Pay attention to the opportunity for positive spreads at low prices (BU2603 - BU2606) [2]. - No strategies are provided for cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Views - As the situation in South America worsens with the US escalating military actions against Venezuela, the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia has significantly declined, increasing risks for non-US buyers [1] - With the marginal easing of supply pressure and the stabilization of the spot market, the bottom signal of the asphalt market is gradually strengthening. However, the actual fundamentals remain weak. The potential upward driver of the market comes from the raw material side. If the supply of Venezuelan oil continues to tighten, leading to an increase in the cost center of asphalt refineries, there is room for further rebound in the asphalt spot and futures markets. If the raw material problem is disproven, the asphalt market will face significant resistance next year due to loose fundamentals and weak oil price expectations [1] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish on the single-side, focus on the opportunity to go long on the main BU contract at low prices and avoid chasing the rise. For the inter-period spread, pay attention to the opportunity of positive spreads (BU2603 - BU2606) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs US Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Tankers Increases Risks in Asphalt Raw Material Supply - This year, the US sanctions on Venezuela have changed, affecting Venezuelan oil supply and pricing, which has been transmitted to the domestic market. For example, in January, the US froze PDVSA's $7 billion assets in the US; in March, it imposed a 25% secondary tariff on countries importing Venezuelan oil; in May, it revoked the oil exploration and export licenses of some companies; in July, it issued a limited "new general license" to Chevron [7] - In the first half of the year, the US sanctions on Venezuela mainly focused on the economic level, especially the change in oil license permissions, which led to a significant decline in Venezuelan oil exports to Europe and the US, and more resources flowed to Asia. In the second and third quarters, the arrival volume of Venezuelan oil in China increased, the raw material supply became more abundant, and the cost support for the asphalt market weakened [8] - In the fourth quarter, the US actions against Venezuela expanded from the economic to the military level. Since September, the US has carried out a series of military actions, and in December, it seized two Venezuelan oil tankers. As a result, the shipment of Venezuelan crude oil to Asia has significantly declined recently, and the floating storage and in-transit inventory of Merey crude oil have increased significantly. If the US blockade continues, the supply of Venezuelan oil to Asia will tighten, and domestic refineries may face a significant increase in raw material costs [9][11] Winter Storage Demand is Gradually Released, and the Bottom Signal of the Spot Market Appears - Previously, due to the decline in oil prices and the discount of diluted asphalt, refinery profits improved, and major refineries released low-priced resources. However, the terminal demand was weak, putting pressure on the spot market. Recently, with the release of winter storage demand, some refineries have switched to producing residual oil, and the supply pressure in the market has eased marginally. The spot market in the northern region has stabilized first. The escalation of the Venezuelan situation has increased concerns about the raw material side, stimulating the enthusiasm of downstream procurement and warehousing [21] - The South China market has been weaker. Recently, major refineries have released more supply, and the downstream has difficulty digesting it. The spot price has continued to decline, reaching around 2,800 yuan/ton. As the asphalt futures market is affected by the raw material sentiment, the basis in the South China region has decreased, and the spot-futures arbitrage window has opened, stimulating spot buying. After the concentrated release of selling pressure in December, the supply from refineries in the South China region has decreased, and the market pressure has eased [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On December 30, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 621,100 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 780,100 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,033,100 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 44,300 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,312,900 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 25,100 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 94,800 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 211,400 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on a recent day, such as the total trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 581,500 contracts [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.74, with a month - on - month change of +0.10; the position PCR was reported at 0.94, with a month - on - month change of - 0.07. Similar data for other options are also provided [2] - The table presents the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, position PCR, and month - on - month change of various index ETF options on a recent day [34] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 14.23%, with a month - on - month change of +0.34%. Similar data for other options are also provided [3] - The table shows the VIX and month - on - month change values of various index ETF options on a recent day [51]

苯乙烯库存回建周期迟迟未兑现 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-142元/吨（-33）。纯苯港口库存30.00万吨（+2.70万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费137美元/ 吨（+5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费129美元/吨（+3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差179.9美元/吨（+0.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-160元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-12-31 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-370元/吨（+40），酚酮生产利润-902元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润857元/吨（+68）， 己二酸生产利润-836元/吨（+39）。己内酰胺开工率74.04%（-0.12%），苯酚开工率78.50%（+2.50%），苯胺开工率 62.98%（+1.63%），己二酸开工率63.60%（+4.00%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差84元/吨（+11元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润88元/吨（+69元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存138800吨（-500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存83300吨（-1250吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯开 工率70.7%（+1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - term: Go for positive spreads on UR05 - 09 when the price is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea futures and spot prices improved in sentiment due to export news. Despite market rumors being refuted, pre - New Year's Eve enterprises still had order - collection needs, leading to better procurement sentiment in the urea spot market. - Environmental warnings in Hebei and Henan may further suppress the operations of urea enterprises and downstream industries. There are expectations of reduced supply in the fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance starting in December. - Demand - side off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled due to raw material supply - guarantee policies. The overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental warnings. - The overall operating rate of melamine has decreased. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. There is no new news on the export side. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 30, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,743 yuan/ton (+8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged). The small - block anthracite was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged). The Shandong basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8), the Henan basis was - 53 yuan/ton (-18), and the Jiangsu basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8) [1] II. Urea Output - As of December 30, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.78% (0.08% change) [1] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 30, 2025, the urea production profit was 131 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] IV. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of December 30, 2025, the export profit was 822 yuan/ton (+10) [1] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 30, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.75% (-1.62%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.07% (-0.48%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.35 days (+0.11) [1] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 30, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 106.89 million tons (-11.08), and the port sample inventory was 17.70 million tons (+3.90) [1]

原油日报 | 2025-12-31 中国仍是明年原油市场的焦点 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年2月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌13美分，收于每桶57.95美元，跌幅为0.22%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌2美分，收于每桶61.92美元，跌幅为0.03%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.36%，报437 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 本周美国能源信息署（EIA）原油库存周报延迟了数小时发布，凸显出美国联邦机构裁员影响数据发布的最新 迹象，而这些数据对市场至关重要。今年，EIA裁减了约350名员工中的100多人，裁员和精简措施是由美国政府效 率部推动的，而这一计划此前由马斯克领导。TP ICAP 集团公司的能源专家斯科特·谢尔顿表示，由于当前石油市 场主要受地缘政治因素影响，该报告发布之时，交易员们已不再像以往那样密切关注美国的库存情况。这有助于 减轻数据延迟所带来的影响。"对于此事，人们普遍持漠不关心的态度。只是对美国政府在政府停摆之后数据的低 效性和不可预测性这一情况表示无奈地耸耸肩而已。"（来源：Bloomberg） 从目前的市场预期来看，市场普遍认为明年原油市场将迎来大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the methanol market. On the port side, Trump's threat against Iran stimulates the methanol futures market, but the port basis weakens. The short - term reality is still weak, with inventories in Jiangsu ports rising due to delayed unloading and reduced demand for inland pick - up. Although Iran's methanol production is at a low level, the decline in shipping volume needs further confirmation. For MTO, there is a possibility of more equipment maintenance in January. On the inland side, it is the off - season for downstream industries, and the factory inventory is in the rebuilding period. The low number of orders and failures in auctions have reduced the demand for inland pick - up from the port. Traditional downstream industries have different operating conditions [2][3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report may use figures such as "Methanol Taicang Basis and Methanol Main Contract", "Methanol Spot - Main Futures in Different Regions", etc. to analyze the methanol basis and inter - period structure, but specific data analysis is not provided in the current text [7][9]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - The report uses figures like "Inner Mongolia Coal - based Methanol Production Profit", "East China MTO Profit (PP&EG Type)", and "Taicang Methanol - CFR China Import Spread" to analyze relevant profit situations, but no specific profit data analysis is given [28][24]. III. Methanol Production, Inventory - In terms of production, the report mentions the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations) and the operating rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated operations). In terms of inventory, it includes methanol port total inventory and inland factory sample inventory. The current port inventory in Jiangsu has reached a high level, and the inland factory inventory is in the rebuilding period [2][3][31]. IV. Regional Price Difference - The report analyzes regional price differences through figures such as "Lubei - Northwest - 280", "East China - Inner Mongolia - 550", etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is 23 yuan/ton (+8), and the Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 176 yuan/ton (+25) [2][35]. V. Traditional Downstream Profit - The report uses figures like "Shandong Formaldehyde Production Gross Margin", "Jiangsu Acetic Acid Production Gross Margin", etc. to analyze the profit of traditional downstream industries. The acetic acid operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, the MTBE operating rate is still good, and the formaldehyde operating rate has slightly declined [3]. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously buy on dips for hedging. - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low. - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 单边：短期区间操作，关注消费与库存拐点，择机逢高卖出套保 假期临近，碳酸锂热情降温 市场分析 2025-12-30，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于117000元/吨，收于121580元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.77%。当 日成交量为459530手，持仓量为511309手，前一交易日持仓量512345手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-1960 元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单19491手，较上个交易日变化1300手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价114000-122000元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价112000-118000元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1550美元/吨，较前一日变化-15美元/吨。广期所 公告，自2025年12月30日（星期二）结算时起，碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，投机交易保证金标准调 整为12%，套期保值交易保证金标准调整为11%，2026年1月5日（星期一）恢复交易后，在各品种期货持仓量最大 的合约未出现涨跌停板单边无连续报价的第一个交易日结算时起，碳酸锂 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. In a situation of double reduction in supply and demand, the upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory depletion progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations. [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton for range-bound consolidation. The risk control measures of raising the margin by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have raised the trading and holding threshold and affected market sentiment. Currently, it is waiting for the fundamentals to become clearer. [6] Group 3: Market Analysis - Industrial Silicon - On December 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,705 yuan/ton and closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, a change of 95 yuan/ton (1.08%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 216,220 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 29, 2025, was 10,027 lots, a change of 120 lots from the previous day. [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. [1] - As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of -1.43% from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse was 138,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse (including the part not registered as warehouse receipts and the spot warehouse) was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. [1] Group 4: Market Analysis - Consumption of Industrial Silicon - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 (0) yuan/ton. SMM reported that the weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable. The planned production of polysilicon in December was around 114,000 tons, a slight decrease from November, with limited change in the demand for industrial silicon. [2] - The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly from the previous week. In early December, monomer plants successively reduced production, and the production schedule decreased compared to November. The reduction in industrial silicon consumption in December may be around 5,000 tons. [2] - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - reduction state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and it is expected that the operating rate will be mainly stable with a weak trend in the future. [2] Group 5: Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Group 6: Market Analysis - Polysilicon - On December 30, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated downward, opening at 56,500 yuan/ton and closing at 57,890 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of -0.19% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 83,335 (95,631 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 42,713 lots. [3] - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 50.00 - 55.00 (0.10) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. [3] - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 30.30, a change of 3.40% from the previous period, the silicon wafer inventory was 21.69 GW, a change of 0.88% from the previous period, the weekly output of polysilicon was 25,300.00 tons, a change of 1.20% from the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 10.33 GW, a change of -3.19% from the previous period. [3] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 (0.10) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.65 (0.10) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.45 (0.10) yuan/piece. [3] Group 7: Market Analysis - Battery Cells and Components of Polysilicon - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W. HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] Group 8: Strategy - Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [6]