甲醇日报 | 2025-11-13 港口库存再度上升 甲醇观点 单边：无 跨期：空MA2601多MA2605，多MA2605空MA2609，蝶式套利 跨品种：无 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润603元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2008元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差500元/吨（-26），内蒙南线1960元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2180元/吨（+5），鲁 南基差272元/吨（-21）；河南2055元/吨（-10），河南基差147元/吨（-36）；河北2090元/吨（+0），河北基差242元/ 吨（-26）。隆众内地工厂库存369250吨（-17160），西北工厂库存205500吨（-27000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单245400 吨（+24307），西北工厂待发订单116500吨（-8000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2072元/吨（+12），太仓基差-36元/吨（-14），CFR中国240美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-41元/ 吨（+1），常州甲醇2275元/吨；广东甲醇2070元/吨（+5），广东基差-38元/吨（-21）。隆众港 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-13 市场观望为主，豆粕窄幅震荡 粕类观点 近期市场资讯，11月11日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，巴西11月大豆出口量料为426万吨，上周预测为377万 吨。巴西11月豆粕出口量料为247万吨，上周预测为223万吨。 市场分析 当前整体供需格局并未改变，下游油厂开机率偏高，但大豆及豆粕库存仍维持高位，下游需求方面多以滚动补库 为主，整体仍处于供应宽松格局。综合来看，未来仍需重点关注大豆进口情况，新季南美大豆的天气情况以及政 策端的变化情况。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3059元/吨，较前日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.16%；菜粕2601合约2494元/吨，较前 日变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.24%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-9， 较前日变动-5；江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-59，较前日变动-5；广东地区豆 粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M01-59，较前日变动-5。福建地区菜粕现货价格2680元/ 吨，较 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.67% at 2,693 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.44% at 3,311 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices maintained a weak and volatile trend, exerting some pressure on the FU and LU market [2] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The current fuel oil market is in a stage where the strength difference between high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils is converging. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has weakened marginally, while the supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil has eased [2] - The market is experiencing marginal changes rather than new trends. After the adjustment of the high-sulfur oil crack spread, it will attract incremental demand from refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil faces potential downward pressure on bunker fuel demand [2] - The rebound space of the high-low sulfur spread should not be overly optimistic [2] Group 3: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3] - Cross-variety: Go long on the LU2601 - FU2601 spread on dips [3] - Cross-period: No strategy [3] - Spot-futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3] Group 4: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, etc. [4]

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bullish [4] Core View - The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm, and attention should be paid to the total amount and structure of apple storage this week. The commodity rate of apples this year is low, and the storage volume is lower than the same period last year [3][4] Summary by Directory - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,207 yuan/ton, a change of - 22 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.24%. The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day [1] - **Recent Market Information**: The ground trading of late Fuji in the producing areas is coming to an end, and the western producing areas are gradually shifting to in - warehouse trading. The出库 price of the same quality is firmer than that during the purchase period. It is expected that the price of high - quality goods will remain stable and firm in the short term, and the price of general goods will remain stable. The peak of storage this week may occur [2] - **Market Analysis**: The apple futures price fell slightly yesterday. As the storage enters the later stage, the price of high - quality goods is expected to remain stable and firm. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas is still light, and the demand side is under pressure. The overall出库 price of farmers' goods is about 0.3 yuan higher than that on the ground [3] - **Strategy**: Neutral to bullish. The supply of late Fuji has increased, but the commodity rate this year is low. The storage volume is lower than the same period last year [4] Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [8] Core View - The recent decline of red date futures is obvious, and the market game has increased. The market expectation is relatively pessimistic. Attention should be paid to the changes in purchase price, jujube quality and peak - season consumption [7][8] Summary by Directory - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 9,365 yuan/ton, a change of - 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.37%. The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.00 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day [5] - **Recent Market Information**: The purchase progress in Aksu and Alar regions has accelerated, and the price has slightly loosened. The purchase enthusiasm of enterprises is average. The new - season finished products in Hebei and Guangdong markets have been listed, with a small price adjustment. The purchase enthusiasm of downstream merchants is general [6] - **Market Analysis**: The red date futures price continued to decline yesterday. The raw material purchase in the producing areas is based on quality, and the purchase enthusiasm of enterprises is average. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The quality of jujubes is better than that of the same period last year. The actual consumption situation in the consumption end will become another focus [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The red date futures have declined significantly recently, and the market expectation is pessimistic. Attention should be paid to the changes in purchase price, jujube quality and peak - season consumption [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short - term may stop falling, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Local PDH device maintenance boost and downstream device restart bring demand increment, promoting the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot price rebounds and then stabilizes temporarily, and the futures price stops falling and consolidates. The supply is in a loose pattern with high inventory pressure, the demand support may increase, and the cost support is limited [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main contract is 5,896 yuan/ton (+27), the East China spot price is 5,850 yuan/ton (-25), the North China spot price is 5,765 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is - 46 yuan/ton (-52), the North China basis is - 122 yuan/ton (-20), the operating rate is 75% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 138 US dollars/ton (+6), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 63 US dollars/ton (+0), the import profit is - 213 yuan/ton (+27), and the factory inventory is 49,820 tons (+4,770) [1] - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 43% (-0.34%), production profit is - 15 yuan/ton (+0); propylene oxide operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 268 yuan/ton (-57); n - butanol operating rate is 86% (+2%), production profit is - 96 yuan/ton (-10); octanol operating rate is 71% (-18%), production profit is - 173 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid operating rate is 72% (+5%), production profit is 597 yuan/ton (+18); acrylonitrile operating rate is 78% (-1%), production profit is - 144 yuan/ton (+14); phenol - acetone operating rate is 76% (-3%), production profit is - 390 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply: Binhuahua's 600,000 - ton PDH and Xintai Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton PDH devices have successively shut down. There is a restart expectation for the 600,000 - ton PDH devices of Ningbo Jinfa Phase I and Donghua Zhangjiagang in the East China region. There is a phased reduction in supply, but the supply is still in a loose pattern with high factory inventory pressure [2] - Demand: Downstream bargain - hunting purchases drive the improvement of market trading. The operating rates of PO and acrylic acid have increased significantly, while the octanol operating rate has decreased significantly due to centralized shutdowns. In the later stage, the overall profit of the downstream may improve marginally with the loosening of propylene prices. The acrylonitrile device of Kelu'er will restart, and there is an operating expectation for the PP of Jingbo Petrochemical and the phenol - acetone of Fuyu Petrochemical, so the demand support for propylene may increase [2] - Cost: International oil prices have risen slightly but still face over - supply pressure, and the external propane price has been continuously weak, so the cost support for propylene is limited [2] 3.3 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, and the 01 - 05 contract of propylene [6][11] 3.4 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures including the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, the propylene capacity utilization rate, the PDH production gross profit of propylene, the PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, the MTO production gross profit of propylene, the methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, the propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][19] 3.5 Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and the propylene import profit [31][35] 3.6 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of production profit and operating rate for PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][46] 3.7 Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market remains in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and this pattern is difficult to change. The secondary fattening pigs entering the market in October are expected to be slaughtered around the Winter Solstice, and there may be a risk of early slaughter if prices decline. The future supply of pigs is still in an oversupply state, and the subsequent slaughter of secondary fattening pigs will further increase supply pressure [2] - The egg market is currently in a situation where supply exceeds demand, and this pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. Although the egg production capacity is slowly being reduced, the overall demand remains weak. After the "Double Eleven" boost, the current consumption demand has returned to the off - season normal level [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,795 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.86 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.04 yuan/kg, down 0.19 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.38 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg [1] - Wholesale market: On November 12, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.55, down 0.02 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.89 yuan/kg, down 1.2%; beef was 66.61 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; mutton was 62.46 yuan/kg, down 0.7%; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; and white - striped chickens were 17.71 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [1] Market Analysis - The secondary fattening pigs entering the market in October may be slaughtered around the Winter Solstice, and there is a risk of early slaughter if prices fall. The future supply of pigs is in an oversupply state, and the subsequent slaughter of secondary fattening pigs will increase supply pressure, making the pattern of strong supply and weak demand difficult to change [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3063 yuan/500 kg, down 89 yuan or 2.82% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.80 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.05 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.76 yuan/jin. The spot basis changed +89 in all three regions [3] - Inventory: On November 12, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.08 days, unchanged from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 1.37 days, up 0.08 days or 6.20% [3] Market Analysis - After the "Double Eleven" boost, the current consumption demand has returned to the off - season normal level. Although the egg production capacity is slowly being reduced, the short - term pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid rising market risk - aversion, focus on the US October CPI data. In the commodity market, during the current inflation - expectation game phase, pay attention to non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. Consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In the domestic market, positive news has emerged, but the economic foundation needs further consolidation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on October 28, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five - Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and China officially postponed tariffs on November 5. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a 0.8 decline from the previous month. China's October exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, compared with an 8.3% increase in the previous value. China's October CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024. The PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. On November 12, the A - share market adjusted with a slight decline in the three major indices, the bond market rose across the board, most commodities fell, and precious metals rose [2]. - In the US, the liquidity risk has temporarily eased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. On November 10, the US Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act". The US October ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. The ADP private - sector employment in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. There are uncertainties regarding the Fed chair candidate and future tariff policies [3]. Commodity Analysis - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and focus on the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered to be relatively loose as OPEC + announced an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worth attention. In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US peace talks, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, consider buying on dips [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [5]. A - Share Market - The A - share market recovered after hitting the bottom, with the three major indices slightly declining. More stocks fell than rose, and over 3500 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets closed down. The trading volume was 1.96 trillion yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.39% [6]. US Tariff and Economic News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there will be major tariff news in the next few days, and tariff dividends are under discussion. Trump mentioned a $2000 tax refund for families with an annual income of less than $100,000. Bessent also said that the economic situation was good before the government shutdown, and he expects real income to rebound in the first and second quarters of next year [3][6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the unilateral strategy is neutral, with a recommendation of short - term observation. There are no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On November 12, 2025, the LPG prices in different domestic regions varied. The PG futures market oscillated, and domestic spot prices showed mixed trends. Although the domestic market supply has tightened marginally, the supply - demand pattern has not reversed, with abundant overseas supplies and limited downstream chemical demand due to insufficient profit growth. The US LPG exports remain at a high level, and the estimated US LPG shipment volume in November is expected to reach 6.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 670,000 tons, possibly hitting the highest level this year [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 12, the LPG prices in different domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 4360 - 4460 yuan/ton, Northeast 3960 - 4090 yuan/ton, North China 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton, East China 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton, Yangtze River region 4590 - 4820 yuan/ton, Northwest 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton, and South China 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton. In the first half of December 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China and South China increased. The domestic PG futures market oscillated, and spot prices showed mixed trends. The market atmosphere in East China cooled slightly, and the ether - post - carbon - four market remained stable with low prices. The domestic supply tightened marginally, but the supply - demand pattern did not change, and overseas supplies were abundant. The US LPG exports remained high, with an estimated November shipment volume of 6.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 670,000 tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term observation is recommended. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

油料日报 | 2025-11-13 豆市供应偏紧，花生关注河南集中上量 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4127.00元/吨，较前日变化+15.00元/吨，幅度+0.36%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-47，较前日变化-15，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北新季大豆市场整体以稳为主，优质优价特征仍存，叠加收储政策托底，短期豆价仍有支撑， 高蛋白价格表现偏强。目前基层农户售粮积极性尚可，价格随行就市，部分略显惜售，粮贸企业谨慎收购，目前 市场普遍都有库存，但向销区售粮情况表现一般。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03 元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日持平； 黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.02元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河 市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is characterized by an overall pattern of oscillation and consolidation. The PE market maintains an oscillation and consolidation pattern, while the PP market shows an oscillation and weakening trend in the short - term. The cost support has strengthened slightly, but the upward movement is still restricted by supply - demand factors [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,788 yuan/ton (+28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,460 yuan/ton (+31). The spot prices of LL in North China and East China are 6,800 yuan/ton (+0) and 6,850 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The spot price of PP in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (-20). The basis of LL in North China and East China is 12 yuan/ton (-28) and 62 yuan/ton (-28) respectively, and the basis of PP in East China is 20 yuan/ton (-51) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%) [2] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 101.2 yuan/ton (-82.1), the PP oil - based production profit is - 488.8 yuan/ton (-82.1), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 105.8 yuan/ton (+1.9) [2] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 72.5 yuan/ton (+2.5), the PP import profit is - 165.6 yuan/ton (+2.4), and the PP export profit is - 5.7 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 50.0% (+0.4%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 50.8% (-0.5%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 62.5% (+0.9%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists. The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates, new capacity releases, and some device restarts. The downstream demand is limited, with the agricultural film's demand expected to shrink and the packaging film's operating rate declining. The cost support from oil prices is weak, and PE is expected to maintain an oscillation and consolidation pattern in the short - term [3] - **PP**: There are still supply - demand contradictions. The cost support has strengthened slightly, but the supply surplus pattern remains. The downstream demand has a slow recovery, and the demand support is limited. PP is expected to continue an oscillation and weakening pattern in the short - term, but the downward drive is also limited [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; the market may maintain a bottom - oscillation pattern in the short - term [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Consider reverse arbitrage when the L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 spreads are high [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No relevant strategy provided [5]