石油沥青日报 | 2025-09-18 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 终端需求仍偏弱，局部现货下跌 市场分析 1、9月17日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2511合约下午收盘价3445元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨0.58%；持仓233590 手，环比下降991手，成交141270手，环比下跌21219手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3786—4086 元/吨；山东，3480—3770 元/吨；华南，3480—3540元/吨； 华东，3550—3650元/吨。 原油价格近日有所反弹，带动沥青盘面小幅上涨，但力度有限，短期趋势仍不明朗。现货方面，昨日华北市场沥 青价格小幅上涨，东北以及华东地区沥青现货价格明显下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。部分地区供应增 加而需求偏弱，市场压力显现，带动区域内现货价格走低。整体来看，沥青市场自身基本面乏力，如果油价反弹 力度不足，盘面上行驱动仍较为有限。 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元/吨 3 | | --- | --- | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) strategy is neutral [4] - The rating for the corn strategy is cautiously bearish [6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment in the report is slightly higher than market expectations, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. Future focus should be on the changes in the new season of US soybeans. In the Chinese market, the strengthening of Brazilian premiums has increased import costs, supporting domestic soybean prices. However, domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and downstream inventories are high. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US policies [3] - For the corn market, the supply of new season corn is increasing, and the market is generally in a loose state. Feed enterprises are mainly using inventory, and both feed and deep - processing enterprises are waiting to buy at lower prices. Future focus should be on the listing and acquisition of new season corn [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3002 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.28%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2460 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (-2.30%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian Report: The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association maintained the 2025 soybean production forecast at 170.3 million tons and export forecast at 109.5 million tons. The soybean crushing volume forecast was increased by 400,000 tons to 58.5 million tons, driving an increase in bean meal production forecast to 45.1 million tons and soybean oil production forecast to 11.7 million tons. Brazilian soybean exports from September 1 - 12 were 2.718 million tons, with a daily average of 272,000 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease [2] Market Analysis - The report adjustment was slightly higher than market expectations, causing a decline in US soybean prices. The strengthening of Brazilian premiums has increased import costs, supporting domestic soybean prices. However, domestic soybean supply is abundant, and downstream inventories are high. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policies [3] Strategy - Neutral [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2161 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.23%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2453 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.41%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazilian Corn: As of September 13, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2024/25 second - season corn was 99.1%. The planting progress of the 2025/26 first - season corn was 14.7% [4] Market Analysis - The supply of new season corn is increasing, and the market is generally in a loose state. Feed enterprises are mainly using inventory, and both feed and deep - processing enterprises are waiting to buy at lower prices. Future focus should be on the listing and acquisition of new season corn [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

下游观望情绪较重，碳酸锂盘面震荡运行 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-18 市场分析 2025-09-17，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于73160元/吨，收于73640元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.03%。当日成 交量为343863手，持仓量为294624手，前一交易日持仓量300437手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为170元/吨（电 碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单39234手，较上个交易日变化410手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价72300-74000元/吨，较前一交易日变化300元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价70300-71500元/吨，较前一交易日变化300元/吨。6%锂精矿价格825美元/吨，较前一日变化5美元/吨。据SMM数 据，下游材料企业仍持谨慎观望态度，采购意愿不强，市场整体成交活跃度不高。当前正值行业需求旺季，下游 材料厂存在一定国庆节前备库需求，在价格处于相对低位时采购意愿较强。供应方面，以锂辉石为原料生产的碳 酸锂占比已超过60%，成为市场供给的重要支撑；锂云母原料所产碳酸锂占比则下降至15%。整体来看，9月市场 呈现供需同步增长、但需求增速更快的态势，预 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-18 内外比价接近 现货出口窗口打开 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为41.33美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日-70元/吨至22160元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-65元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-80元/吨至22140元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-95元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日-70元/吨至22140元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-85元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-17沪锌主力合约开于22330元/吨，收于22280元/吨，较前一交易日-20元/吨，全天交易日成交96254 手，全天交易日持仓78094手，日内价格最高点达到22365元/吨，最低点达到22195元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-17，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为16.06万吨，较上期变化0.64万吨。截止2025-09-17，LME 锌库存为48975吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 市场分析 美联储降息落地有色商品普遍回调，内外比值仍在走阔，外强内弱格局持续，现货出口窗口即将打开。国内基本 面依旧偏弱势，虽然后期国内外TC可能背道而驰，国内TC有望继续小幅下滑，但冶炼 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-09-18 内需偏弱，厂内库存继续累积 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-09-17，尿素主力收盘1681元/吨（-5）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1660 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1650元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1650元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-31 元/吨（+5）；河南基差：-21元/吨（+5）；江苏基差：-31元/吨（+5）；尿素生产利润120元/吨（+0），出口利润1163 元/吨（-4）。 供应端：截至2025-09-17，企业产能利用率79.34%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为116.53 万吨（+3.26），港口样本 库存量为54.94 万吨（-7.15）。 需求端：截至2025-09-17，复合肥产能利用率37.82%（+4.74%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.38%（-3.60%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.18日（-0.70）。 尿素国内现货市场厂家降价吸单，山东河南价格跌至1580元/吨后成交好转，厂家上调报价后成交一般。目前部分 地区农业秋季肥开始，淡季储备开始较少，工业需求复合肥厂拿货积极性不高，逢低采购 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory accumulation pace has slowed down for the first time. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, it supported the port demand, and the port inventory remained basically flat this week. However, the subsequent arrival pressure is still high, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [3] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol plants is still low, and overall, the inland market is stronger than the port market. The window for port re - flow to the inland is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices. The high - start acetic acid production has peaked and declined, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, waiting for a further bottom - up recovery. Attention should be paid to the decline in the resilience of inland demand [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Includes figures such as methanol Taicang basis and the main methanol contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, methanol 09 - methanol 01) [7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Involves figures related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][30] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Covers figures on total port methanol inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][34] 4. Regional Price Differences - Includes figures on price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Involves figures on production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [7] - Option investment rating: Short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled, and copper prices declined. However, the TC price of copper remains low, and the demand outlook is not as pessimistic as in the middle of the year. When the price drops below 80,000 yuan/ton, the downstream restocking sentiment may be stimulated [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 17, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 81,010 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 80,560 yuan/ton, a -0.40% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 79,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,880 yuan/ton, a 0.84% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper continued to weaken. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,410 - 80,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 60 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan) over the main contract. The market procurement sentiment was low, and holders actively lowered prices to sell [2] Important Information Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the market expected a more than 90% chance of a rate cut in October [3] Mining End - Australia's Orion Minerals signed a non - binding term sheet with a Glencore subsidiary to provide $200 million - $250 million in financing for its Prieska copper - zinc project in South Africa. Different countries have introduced different mining regulatory measures [4] Smelting and Import - Canadian miner Highland Copper's Copperwood copper project in the US received a "non - binding interest letter" from the US Export - Import Bank, with a potential financing of up to $250 million [5] Consumption - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 37.3% and 36.7% [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,675 tons to 149,775 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 33,291 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 154,200 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous week [6] Table Data - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums, inventories, warehouse receipts, spreads, and arbitrage ratios from different time points (September 18, 2025; September 17, 2025; September 11, 2025; August 19, 2025) [26][27][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but Fed Chair Powell's speech showed some hawkish signals. Although the short-term may suppress gold prices, the logic of the easing cycle remains unchanged, and the financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to expand [1][8]. - Silver currently shares the same macro - easing logic as gold, and its price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. Powell said employment growth has slowed, inflation has risen slightly, and there are still inflation risks [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 841.16 yuan/gram and closed at 835.08 yuan/gram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 835.66 yuan/gram, down 0.24% from the afternoon close [2]. - On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 10,128 yuan/kg and closed at 9,906 yuan/kg, down 2.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 457,876 lots, and the open interest was 171,891 lots. The night - session closed at 9,924 yuan/kg, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.091%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.536%, down 0.85 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On September 17, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 136 lots and the short position changed by 171 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 366,327 lots, a change of 16.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,303,544 lots, a change of 33.27% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 975.66 tons, down 4.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,189.61 tons, down 28.23 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.30 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 860.41 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.30, a change of 1.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 86.56, a change of 0.41% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On September 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,144 kg, a change of 30.88% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 748,504 kg, a change of 47.11% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,740 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 62,070 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: Buy on dips in the range of 815 - 820 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: Buy on dips in the range of 9,750 - 9,800 yuan/kg [10]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [10]. - Options: On hold [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Short - term interval operation [5] Core View - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon show general performance, and their futures prices are in a volatile state. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news, and there may be upward space if driven by policies. The polysilicon futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [2][5] Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On September 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,895 yuan/ton and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.06% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 285,673 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,896 lots, a change of 24 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton. The prices in many regions remained stable [1] - The consumption side was stable. After nearly two weeks of low - level stable operation, most downstream enterprises had completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories had an increased willingness to support prices and made small trial increases [1] Strategy of Industrial Silicon - The futures market fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals changed little recently. The supply increased after resumption of production, and the consumption side was stable. The industrial silicon futures were mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the market may have upward space if promoted by policies [2] - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On September 17, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile state, opening at 53,665 yuan/ton and closing at 53,490 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.09% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 126,234 lots, and the trading volume was 186,238 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,200 tons, a change of 3.31% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 13.88GW, a change of 0.73% month - on - month [3] - In September, the domestic polysilicon production schedule was expected to be about 130,000 tons, still in excess compared with downstream demand. Some leading manufacturers planned to cut production in October [4] Strategy of Polysilicon - The implementation of the energy - consumption policy was late, and the short - term supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon were general. The market was mainly volatile. The market was affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy was still being promoted. Participants needed to pay attention to risk management and follow up on policy implementation and spot - price transmission. In the medium - to - long - term, it was suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [5] - Unilateral: Short - term interval operation; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity, and although demand has slightly improved, the inventory is high, and the supply - demand situation remains weak. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is dim. The PVC futures price is under pressure, but the impact of anti - involution policies needs attention. - The spot price of caustic soda has declined. The开工 rate of chlor - alkali enterprises has decreased slightly, and production may decline. Demand is unstable, with inventory accumulating in Shandong, and the demand support is weakening. However, cost support exists, and the profit of chlor - alkali is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4973 yuan/ton (+13), the East China basis is - 193 yuan/ton (-13), and the South China basis is - 123 yuan/ton (-13) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4780 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 640 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2840 yuan/ton (+60), the calcium carbide profit is 38 yuan/ton (+60), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 502 yuan/ton (-81), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 672 yuan/ton (-1), and the PVC export profit is - 12.0 US dollars/ton (-8.3) [1]. - Inventory and开工 rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.0 tons (-0.6), the social PVC inventory is 53.2 tons (-0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 80.29% (+2.64%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 77.20% (+4.61%), and the overall PVC开工 rate is 79.39% (+3.21%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 68.9 tons (+1.8) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2608 yuan/ton (+29), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 46 yuan/ton (-29) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1571 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 708.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 332.28 yuan/ton (-84.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1437.25 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and开工 rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 35.68 tons (-3.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 81.90% (-1.50%) [2]. - Downstream开工 rate: The alumina开工 rate is 85.21% (+0.83%), the dyeing and printing开工 rate in East China is 65.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 87.77% (+0.67%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply may decrease slightly due to maintenance, but new production capacity is increasing, so the supply is still abundant. Demand has improved slightly, but the inventory is high, and the export outlook in the fourth quarter is not good. The profit of chlor - alkali can still be compressed, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The high number of futures warehouse receipts suppresses the price, and the impact of anti - involution policies needs attention [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda has declined. The chlor - alkali enterprise开工 rate has decreased slightly, and production may decline. Demand is unstable, with inventory accumulating in Shandong, and the demand support is weakening. However, cost support exists, and the profit of chlor - alkali is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Wait and see - Inter - delivery: Wait and see - Inter - commodity: None Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see - Inter - delivery: Go long the SH01 - 05 spread when the price is low - Inter - commodity: None [4][5]