Report Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [5] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil supply-demand outlook is poor, and the expectation of oversupply weighs on oil prices, but geopolitical tensions support it. The development of "reciprocal tariffs" and Trump's uncertain actions on tariffs bring risks to market expectations [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the US has declined again, and the aromatics entering the gasoline pool is restricted. The short - flow PX plants have restarted due to profit recovery [2] - The PXN has widened due to the maintenance of several domestic PX plants and the tight supply in the spot market. The continuation of the tight supply - demand situation of PX depends on PTA maintenance and new plant commissioning [2] - The PTA fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester load is expected to decline in July [3] - The PF fundamentals are acceptable, but the downstream demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to cost support [3] - The PR processing fee is expected to recover in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [4] Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures show PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures show toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [50][52][54][63][66][70] PF Detailed Data - Figures show 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [74][76][84][88][89] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [91][97][101][103]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - In the futures and spot market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,343 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 71 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - Several ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with annual capacities of 450,000, 550,000, and 700,000 tons are restarting after a short - term shutdown due to power issues last week [1] - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 17 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 15 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 580,000 tons (up 35,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 542,000 tons (up 36,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 106,000 tons, with inventory depletion. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main ports is 106,000 tons, and there is pressure for inventory to rise later [1] - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure is still good, but the cancellation of warehouse receipts will supplement the tradable spot. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart, with concentrated arrivals in early July. On the demand side, several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans, with weak demand expectations [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and its basis, but no detailed numerical analysis is provided in the given text [1][4][5] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 17 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 15 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month). The report also mentions the overall load and syngas - based load of ethylene glycol, but no detailed numerical analysis is provided [1][10][16] International Spread - The report mentions the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR), but no detailed numerical analysis is provided [4][17][19] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The report mentions the production and sales of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips, but no detailed numerical analysis is provided [4][18][20] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 580,000 tons (up 35,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 542,000 tons (up 36,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 106,000 tons, with inventory depletion. This week, the planned arrival at the East China main ports is 106,000 tons, and there is pressure for inventory to rise later. The report also mentions the inventory of ethylene glycol in various ports and the raw material inventory days of Chinese polyester plants, but no detailed numerical analysis is provided [1][5][30]

油料日报 | 2025-07-09 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2509合约4104.00元/吨，较前日变化+25.00元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A09+196，较前日变化-25，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周一，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘下跌，其中基准期约收低2.7%，创两周新低，主要 原因是美国中西部天气改善对作物生长极为有利，市场对中美贸易谈判未如预期推进感到失望。截至收盘，大豆 期货下跌21美分到28.50美分不等，其中7月期约下跌24.50美分，报收1031.75美分/蒲式耳;8月期约下跌24美分，报 收1031.50美分/蒲式耳;11月期约下跌28.50美分，报收1020.75美分/蒲式耳。7月8日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋 白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报 价2.16元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日平； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国 标 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig industry: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the egg industry: Cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pig industry is in a low - volatility cycle, with stable sow inventories and difficult rapid decline in production capacity. Whether secondary fattening can drive up prices in Q3 this year needs continuous attention [2] - The egg industry is in a seasonal consumption off - season, with a loose supply pattern and weak demand. Egg prices are expected to be sluggish in the short term, and farmers' losses will continue [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 14,275 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 15.05 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 15.30 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.37 yuan/kg, unchanged [1] - Wholesale market: On July 8, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.51 yuan/kg, down 0.7% from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - Due to the decline in feed raw material prices and cost - reduction measures by group factories, self - breeding and self - raising still have profits. The sow inventory is stable, and the production capacity is unlikely to decline rapidly [2] - In Q3 of the past two years, there were price peaks. This year, group factories are reducing supply to control prices, but the impact of secondary fattening on price increases is uncertain due to relevant policies [2] Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is neutral [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2508 contract yesterday was 3445 yuan/500 kg, down 4 yuan (-0.12%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.36 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.50 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.44 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On July 8, the national production - link inventory was 1.27 days, unchanged, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.60 days, down 0.01 days [3] Market Analysis - Eggs are in the seasonal consumption off - season, and there is no obvious consumption boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival. Despite possible decline in laying rate due to high temperature, the supply will remain loose [4] - The plum - rain season increases the probability of egg mildew, and traders are cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [5] Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6]

期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7658元/吨，较前一日变动-75元/吨，幅度-0.97%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+542，较前一日变动+75；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1942，较前一日变动+75。 近期市场资讯，苹果产区市场维持弱稳运行，客商数量不多，库内货源走货不快，好货价格变动不大，一般货源 价格存在让价空间。西部早熟果目前仍以大荔、运城等地晨阳、夏红、秦阳为主，整体上量有限，对行情影响不 大。西部产区货源剩余不多，存货商自行发市场为主，交易不多，早熟果光果晨阳、秦阳等上市后价格稳定；山 东产区仍以发市场为主，部分货源价格因质量有小幅松动。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川 产区目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/ 斤，果农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 苹果库内 ...

港口到港压力仍存，价格震荡偏弱 甲醇观点 甲醇日报 | 2025-07-09 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润670元/吨（-20）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1965元/吨（-20），内蒙北线基差192元/吨（-1），内蒙南线2020元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2280元/吨（-15），鲁 南基差107元/吨（+4）；河南2175元/吨（+0），河南基差2元/吨（+19）；河北2185元/吨（+0），河北基差72元/吨（+19）。 隆众内地工厂库存352280吨（+10730），西北工厂库存223500吨（+18000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单233250吨（-7450）， 西北工厂待发订单110400吨（-9100）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2402元/吨（-23），太仓基差29元/吨（-4），CFR中国280美元/吨（-2），华东进口价差-32元/吨 （-23），常州甲醇2400元/吨；广东甲醇2415元/吨（-20），广东基差42元/吨（-1）。隆众港口总库存673660吨（+3160）， 江苏港口库存333000吨（-23500），浙江港口库存 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-07-09 棕榈油出口增长，或支撑价格 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8644.00元/吨，环比变化+178元，幅度+2.10%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7946.00 元/吨，环比变化+52.00元，幅度+0.66%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9598.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8620.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.29%，现货基差P09+-24.00，环比变 化-68.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8090.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.75%，现货基差Y09+144.00， 环比变化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9730.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现货基差 OI09+132.00，环比变化+0.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：上周进口油菜籽开机降至低位，整体上处于几乎停滞水平，菜油产量随之减少，库存高位小 幅回落。中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2025年第27周末，国内进口压榨菜油库存量为85.9万吨，较上周的 88.4 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-07-09 供应充足，盘面弱势震荡 市场分析 1、\t7月8日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4650；东北市场，4120-4330；华北市场，4460-4650；华东市场，4380-4580； 沿江市场，4570-4740；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4570-4720。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年8月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷566美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4457元/吨，涨56元/吨，丁烷4229元/吨，涨80元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年8月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷571美元/吨，涨14美元/吨，丁烷542美元/吨，涨15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4497元/吨，涨112元/吨，丁烷4268元/吨，涨119元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日原油价格走强，但对LPG市场提振有限，盘面维持弱势震荡，市场驱动不足。现货方面，沿江地区有所下跌， 其余区域主流维稳，氛围温和，上游库压尚可，下游按需采购。供应方面，OPEC计划增产，海外供应维持充裕； 国内供应尚可，整 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-07-09 夏肥支撑盘面，等待印标价格公布 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-08，尿素主力收盘1763元/吨（+15）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1810 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1820元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：57 元/吨（-15）；河南基差：47元/吨（-15）；江苏基差：77元/吨（-15）；尿素生产利润290元/吨（+0），出口利润701 元/吨（-10）。 供应端：截至2025-07-08，企业产能利用率84.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为43.70 万吨（+5.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-08，复合肥产能利用率29.25%（-0.86%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.99%（-0.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 目前夏季用肥支撑尿素盘面价格，等待印标价格公布。尿素部分计划检修装置推迟停车，产量继续高位运行。北 方局部区域追肥用量继续释放，农需继续推进。复合肥维持季节性淡季，三聚氰胺开工低 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-09 现货价格承压，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2935元/吨，较前日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.07%；菜粕2509合约2576元/吨，较前日 变动-3元/吨，幅度-0.12%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2850元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M09-85， 较前日变动-18；江苏地区豆粕现货2780元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09-155，较前日变动-8；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M09-155，较前日变动-8。福建地区菜粕现货价格2580 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM09+4，较前日变动+3。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部作物周报显示，截至7月6日当周，美国大豆优良率66%，一周前66%，上年同期68%， 与市场预期相符；大豆出苗率96%，一周前94%，上年同期98%；大豆开花率32%，一周前17%，上年同期32%； 大豆结荚率8%，一周前3%，上年同期8%。 市场分析 整体来看，近月到港维持千万吨级以上，油厂大豆和豆粕库存增加较快，预计在新季 ...