行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 22 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - In the peak season, the single - week crude oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, but there are no new negatives in the market. Oil prices are still supported and are expected to have an upward space. It is necessary to continue to track consumption and Saudi supply changes [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $67.35, closing at $66.03, with a high of $68.16, a low of $64.38, a decline of 1.96%, and a trading volume of 118.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $70.50, closing at $69.23, with a high of $71.53, a low of $67.71, a decline of 1.98%, and a trading volume of 177.53 million lots. SC's opening price was 517.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 512.3 yuan/barrel, with a high of 520.4, a low of 511.3, a decline of 3.70%, and a trading volume of 15.04 million lots [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The three major institutions' July reports show little adjustment on the demand side. On the supply side, except for Kazakhstan, seven other countries have completed compensatory production cuts according to OPEC. There are differences in the prediction of Saudi Arabia's crude oil production among the three institutions this month. IEA expects Saudi production to reach 9.8 million barrels per day, while OPEC and EIA expect around 9.3 million barrels per day. High - frequency data shows that US refined oil consumption is slightly lower than expected, and the apparent demand for gasoline and diesel has declined [6] 3.2 Industry News - Iran has no plan to negotiate with the US currently [8] - Turkey hopes to start a new and dynamic stage for the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline [8] - Barclays maintains its forecast of Brent crude oil price at $72 per barrel in 2025 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [8] - The EU cancels the license for the Czech Republic to import oil from Russia [8] - The UK sanctions Russia's oil export and intelligence agencies, and together with the EU, lowers the "price cap" of Russian oil exports from $60 per barrel to $47.6 per barrel [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI and Brent fund positions, and various oil price charts, with data sources from CFTC, EIA, wind, Bloomberg, etc. [10][11][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - A shares' sharp rise and the expectation of improved demand and prices due to anti-involutionary measures have suppressed the bond market, causing treasury bond futures to decline across the board [8]. - The yields of major inter-bank interest rate bonds with various maturities have all increased, with short-term yields fluctuating within a narrow range and long-term yields rising by about 1 - 2bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.675%, up 1.1bp [9]. - The capital market is stable. There were 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities today, and the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. The short-term capital interest rates have declined across the board, while the medium and long-term capital remains stable [10]. - The recent policy and economic data have provided limited guidance. The stable capital market lacks the impetus for further breakthroughs, while the rising market risk appetite has suppressed the bond market. The short-term market still lacks a clear direction [11]. - In the long term, considering the pressure of tariffs and weak domestic demand in the fundamentals, as external demand risks become more prominent in the third quarter, the results of tariff negotiations become clear, and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the expectation of monetary easing may heat up again in October. However, if the anti-involutionary measures effectively boost domestic demand and inflation, the risk of a reversal in the bond market trend needs to be considered [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: A shares' sharp rise and the expectation of improved demand and prices due to anti-involutionary measures have suppressed the bond market, leading to a decline in all treasury bond futures. The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds with various maturities have increased, with short - term yields fluctuating narrowly and long - term yields rising by about 1 - 2bp [8][9]. - **Capital Market**: The capital market is stable. With 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. The short - term capital interest rates have declined across the board, and the medium and long - term capital remains stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: The short - term market lacks a clear direction. In the long term, the expectation of monetary easing may heat up again in October, but the risk of a bond market trend reversal needs to be considered if domestic demand and inflation rise [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - **LPR Quotation**: The LPR quotation in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [13]. - **EU Leaders' Visit**: European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24. President Xi Jinping will meet with them, and Premier Li Qiang will co - chair the 25th China - EU Leaders' Meeting [13]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The central bank's public solicitation of opinions on canceling the freeze of collateral for bond repos is mainly a long - term measure to optimize the market mechanism and align with international standards, with limited direct connection to restarting treasury bond trading [13]. - **Trade Issues**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H20 chips to China and Canada's tightened steel import restrictions, emphasizing cooperation and safeguarding Chinese enterprises' legitimate rights [13]. - **Hydropower Project**: The construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. was established [14]. - **G20 Meeting**: At the third G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting this year, China stated that it will implement a more proactive fiscal policy and expand high - level opening - up in the second half of the year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report presents data on treasury bond futures trading on July 21, including contract information such as settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. It also mentions the spread between different maturities and varieties of treasury bond futures, as well as the trends of the main contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: Relevant data on the money market, such as the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase interest rate change, are provided [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) are presented [35].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The egg price bottomed out last week and then rose significantly, officially entering the summer peak season. The current market is in the first wave of rapid price increases. Based on historical data, the average spot price of eggs in the producing areas during the peak season of the third quarter this year is expected to reach 4.30 yuan/jin, with a minimum average of 3.77 yuan/jin. The valuation of the 09 contract is slightly lower than the average expected increase during the peak season. A short - term bullish approach is recommended, but long positions should be traded in a phased manner to avoid over - exposure [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The price of eggs in the national market rose today. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.18 yuan/jin, up 0.19 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main consuming areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 09 contract rose 0.64%. For specific contract data, the 2508 contract closed at 3593, up 80 or 2.28%; the 2509 contract closed at 3636, up 23 or 0.64%; the 2510 contract closed at 3410, up 37 or 1.10% [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: A short - term bullish approach is recommended, but long positions should be traded in a phased manner to avoid over - exposure due to the potential impact of cold - stored eggs on the market after a sharp price increase [8]. 2. Industry News - **Laying Hen Inventory**: As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, showing an upward trend for six consecutive months [9]. - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In June, the monthly hatchling volume of chicks in sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, slightly less than 44.98 million in May and slightly higher than 39.98 million in the same period in 2024. The replenishment volume has declined for two consecutive months, mainly due to seasonal factors [9][10]. - **Hen Culling Volume**: In the three weeks up to July 11, the national hen culling volumes were 16.27 million, 17.14 million, and 18.41 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, reached a phased peak in June, and then declined slightly due to expectations of the summer peak season, but the absolute value was still slightly higher than the levels of the previous three years. As of July 17, the average age of culled hens was 505 days, one day later than last week and four days earlier than last month [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg production area average price, 08 contract basis, 08 - 09 spread, 08 seasonal trend, and egg - laying hen farming profit, etc. [14][17][13]

Report Overview - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures' main price fluctuated. The Si2509 contract closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 4.99%. The trading volume was 1,260,930 lots, and the open interest was 383,296 lots, with a net increase of 3,956 lots. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was priced at 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan at 8,600 yuan/ton. The 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,400 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang 9,250 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,350 yuan/ton [4]. - The commodity sector resonated to fill the gap in April, and industrial silicon continued to make up for the increase. The fundamental factors are not the main driving logic at present. The resumption of production in the southwest offset the reduction in Xinjiang, and the production change was not significant compared with the first half of the year. There was no unexpected change in the demand side. Previously, it was suggested that 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton was a resistance range to be challenged based on the average cost and the previous warehouse receipt cancellation price. Since last Friday, the policy side continued to boost the strong market expectation, and the increase in the industrial silicon guidance price also indicated that the policy aimed at "profit repair" in the short term. Referring to the current average cost of industrial silicon at 9,228 yuan/ton, it will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The Si2509 contract closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 4.99%, with a trading volume of 1,260,930 lots and an open interest of 383,296 lots, a net increase of 3,956 lots [4]. - Spot Price: The spot price of industrial silicon was mainly stable. The 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 8,600 yuan/ton. The 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,400 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang 9,250 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,350 yuan/ton [4]. - Future Outlook: The commodity sector filled the April gap, and industrial silicon continued to rise. The fundamentals were not the main driver. Southwest's复产 offset Xinjiang's production cuts, and demand had no significant changes. With policy support and a cost reference of 9,228 yuan/ton, it will fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 2. Market News - On July 21, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,141 lots, a net decrease of 252 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the third week of July, the transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 12.4%. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 40,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 41,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [5]. - On July 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Chief Engineer Xie Shaofeng stated that work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials were about to be introduced, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5].

Report Information - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract continued to be strong The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with a trading volume of 621,314 lots and an open interest of 172,057 lots, a net increase of 16,518 lots [4] - Despite signs of resistance such as exchange limits and a sharp decline in trading volume last week, policy support since last Friday continued to stimulate strong expectations in the commodity market The commodity index filled the gap in early April and strengthened collectively The main polycrystalline silicon contract opened higher and then fluctuated strongly, highlighting the game between policy and capital The spot price continued to show a large range difference, and the transaction range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding materials was between 40,000 and 49,000 yuan, mainly because each enterprise quoted comprehensively based on its own full cost The supply-demand fundamentals have not improved and are not the main driving logic at present The futures price fluctuated strongly with reference to the spot price range as market sentiment fermented under policy stimulus [4] Market News - On July 21, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In the third week of July, the transaction price range of polycrystalline silicon N-type re-feeding materials was 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 12.4% The transaction price range of N-type granular silicon was 40,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [5] - On July 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where Xie Shaofeng, the Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, introduced the industrial and information technology development in the first half of 2025 Work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are即将 to be introduced The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust their structures, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The soda ash market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth, but there is still inventory accumulation. The future demand side is bearish, and the overall oversupply pattern suppresses prices. The short - term disk trend is strongly volatile following the overall commodity trend, and the long - term is bearish due to the supply - demand contradiction [8][9]. - The glass market faces pressure from high inventory and slow capacity reduction. The downstream real estate has not improved substantially. The short - term disk trend is strong, and the follow - up needs to focus on policy implementation [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **July 21 Market Data**: The main futures contract SA509 opened high and closed high, with a closing price of 1,295 yuan/ton, a rise of 69 yuan/ton or 5.62%, and a daily reduction of 297,887 lots in positions [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the week of July 17, the weekly output was 733,200 tons, a 3.42% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a 2.78% increase. The enterprise shipment volume was 691,000 tons, a 5.48% increase. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% increase, with high - level inventory and a slowdown in growth [8]. - **Analysis**: Summer maintenance device recovery led to increased production and inventory accumulation. The demand side is bearish due to the expected reduction in photovoltaic glass production. The overall oversupply pattern suppresses prices. The short - term disk follows the overall commodity trend, and the long - term is bearish [9]. Glass - **Supply**: Affected by the planned production reduction of photovoltaic glass enterprises, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the supply of float glass has also declined, increasing inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation [10][11]. - **Downstream**: The domestic real estate completion link has not improved substantially, and the downward trend continues [11]. - **Analysis**: The anti - involution policy expectation has strengthened market confidence. The short - term disk trend is strong, and the follow - up needs to focus on policy implementation [11]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides charts of soda ash and glass active contract price trends, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass output, with data sources including Wind and iFind [13][16][17]

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 22 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 22 日 请阅读正文后的声明 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic conditions will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE ratio lead to increased volatility, and in Q3, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: US economic data support the Fed to delay interest - rate cuts, which pressures gold prices. But the easing of Sino - US trade relations and overseas economic recovery weaken the US dollar's safe - haven demand, supporting gold prices. London gold oscillates between $3300 - 3380 per ounce, and silver with strong industrial attributes rises. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policy. It is recommended to hold a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade situation and US fiscal expansion reduce gold's demand, but Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks support it. In June, speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view and participate with medium - low positions. Short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, with data from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US retail sales in June rebounded more than expected, and initial jobless claims reached the lowest level since April, providing reasons for the Fed to delay interest - rate cuts [17]. - The US will impose a 93.5% preliminary anti - dumping duty on anode - grade graphite imported from China [17]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Daly expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, Waller believes the Fed should cut rates at the end of the month, while Kugler thinks the Fed should not cut rates for some time [18].