Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The significant increase in US crude oil exports has led to a substantial reduction in crude oil inventories, but the weekly export volume fluctuates greatly. Refinery crude oil input has begun to decline continuously, and refineries will enter the maintenance season later, resulting in a temporary decline in demand. Distillate inventories have been increasing since reaching the lowest point of the year in July, with a significantly faster growth rate than the same period in previous years. Diesel consumption is weak, and the 4th quarter is about to enter the consumption peak season, so the later changes should be monitored. The data is slightly bearish. EIA and IEA have raised the global crude oil supply forecast in their monthly reports, and the expected inventory accumulation speed has accelerated. Oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the medium term, and the main strategy is to hold a bearish view. In operation, short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. Grouped by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $62.30, closing price was $62.34, highest price was $63, lowest price was $61.61, with a decline of 0.10% and a trading volume of 20.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $65.98, closing price was $66.01, highest price was $66.67, lowest price was $65.35, with a decline of 0.05% and a trading volume of 29.58 million lots. SC's opening price was 476.6 yuan/barrel, closing price was 473.1 yuan/barrel, highest price was 478.7 yuan/barrel, lowest price was 471.6 yuan/barrel, with a decline of 2.29% and a trading volume of 10.21 million lots [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main strategy is to hold a bearish view on oil prices in the medium term, and short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. 2. Industry News - Kuwait's oil minister stated that Kuwait will increase its oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day in October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [7]. - According to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), Saudi Arabia's crude oil production decreased by 551,000 barrels per day month-on-month in July, dropping to 9.201 million barrels per day [7]. - Market news indicated that Iraq and oil companies are preparing to sign an agreement to restart exports from the Kurdish region [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][10][17][21]

Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2511 opened at 3375 yuan/ton, closed at 3373 yuan/ton, with a high of 3395 yuan/ton, a low of 3364 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.20%, and a trading volume of 182,100 lots; BU2512 opened at 3331 yuan/ton, closed at 3320 yuan/ton, with a high of 3340 yuan/ton, a low of 3310 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.31%, and a trading volume of 55,800 lots [6] - Spot Market: Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China markets declined, while those in other regions remained stable. The continuous decline of crude oil and asphalt futures was negative for asphalt spot prices [6] - Supply: The expected conversion of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical to produce residual oil and the production cut plans of some refineries might reduce supply, but the asphalt conversion plans of Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical were implemented, and Jincheng Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical, which had already converted, continued to operate stably. It was expected that the operating load rate of asphalt plants would continue to rise [6] - Demand: The weather in the northern and central markets was favorable, and driven by project rush - work, demand had certain resilience, while the demand in the southern region was affected by typhoon weather. Overall, demand remained stable [6] - Market Outlook: The asphalt market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, operating in a volatile and weak manner, and a bearish approach was recommended [6] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3450 - 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The decline of asphalt futures at night led to some spot - futures traders pricing and selling asphalt contracts, and the decline of the futures market was negative for the spot market sentiment, resulting in a decline in the low - end price of the South China market [7] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3480 - 3720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Qilu Petrochemical continued to produce asphalt, and the reduction of the settlement price led to a decline in the high - end price of the Shandong market. Market demand was relatively stable, but with abundant resource supply, the selling side was relatively active, and the prices of some local refinery brand asphalts were reduced [7] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provided data on asphalt cracking, social inventory, daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19][23]

Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the 23rd, the closing price of the PTA main futures TA2601 was 4,556 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or 0.87%. With the cost support from crude oil and sufficient PTA spot supply, and lack of positive demand support, the PTA market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The closing price of TA2601 was 4,556 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 605,225 and an increase of 46,886. The closing price of TA2605 was 4,598 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 23,630 and an increase of 1,325 [6]. 2. Industry News - Crude Oil: Due to Iraq's increased oil exports, concerns about future supply surplus overshadowed geopolitical tensions. WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 settled at $62.64 per barrel, down $0.04 or 0.06%. Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 settled at $66.57 per barrel, down $0.11 or 0.16% [7]. - PX: The price in the Chinese market was estimated at $803 - 805 per ton, down $4 per ton; in the South Korean market, it was estimated at $783 - 785 per ton, down $4 per ton. There was 1 deal heard, with any November cargo sold at $804 per ton [7]. - PTA in East China: The price was 4,998 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was a discount of 52 yuan/ton compared to futures 2505, up 12 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures prices, basis, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][11][13]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy showed marginal weakness in August, with consumption slowing down and the decline in the real estate sector expanding again, indicating that the foundation for domestic demand recovery remains weak. Policy - driven infrastructure investment also slowed down significantly, dragging down overall investment. However, there is no need for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September, and the policy may focus more on expanding fiscal and credit policies and supporting the real estate market, which will bring disturbances to the bond market. - The pressure on the bond market may ease as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, but the bond market still lacks a breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal this week and the performance of cross - quarter funds. As the long holiday approaches, the bond market may stabilize and slightly rebound [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: LPR remaining unchanged was in line with expectations, but the one - day 14 - day reverse repurchase and the approaching feedback period for the new fund redemption rules caused market concerns. Coupled with the late - session stock market rally, treasury bond futures fell across the board [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market rebounded across the board, with medium - and long - term yields rising by about 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.799%, up 1.15bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The funding pressure eased marginally, and the open market turned to net withdrawal. There were 287 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.09 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined, and most short - term funding rates fell. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fell 1.36bp to 1.414%, and the 7 - day rate fell 1.36bp to 1.475%. Medium - and long - term funds remained stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained little changed at 1.65% [10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market pressure may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal this week and cross - quarter funds. As the long holiday approaches, the bond market may stabilize and slightly rebound [12] 2. Industry News - The central bank announced that the 1 - year and over - 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, in line with market expectations. Dongfang Jincheng's Wang Qing team believes that policy rates and LPR may still be cut by the end of the year to boost domestic demand and stabilize the property market [13] - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng introduced that as of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond markets ranked second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserve scale ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China optimized policies such as down - payment ratios and mortgage rates, and reduced existing mortgage rates, saving over 50 million households about 300 billion yuan in interest payments annually. By the end of June this year, the number of financing platforms decreased by 60% compared with March 2023, and the scale of financial debts decreased by over 50% [14] - China's government debt balance has exceeded 90 trillion yuan. The National People's Congress Standing Committee's Pre - working Committee and the Financial and Economic Committee of the National People's Congress suggested strengthening the management of assets formed by government debt [15] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trading data for treasury bond futures on September 23, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests for different contracts [6] - **Other Data**: It also mentions various data such as the spread between main - contract tenors of treasury bond futures, the spread between different - variety main - contracts of treasury bond futures, the term structure and trend of SHIBOR, the weighted interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the fixed - rate curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][17][18][21][24][26][31][35][37]

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 9 月 24 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The SCFIS has fallen below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the freight rates in October have been further reduced. The spot freight rates show a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the freight rate reduction rate can slow down and whether the bottom can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East may support the far - month contracts. There may be a low - buying opportunity for the December contract, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks. In October, the freight rates are further reduced. For example, in the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, Maersk's quotes for the first and second weeks of October are about $200 lower than those in late September, and other airlines have followed suit. The spot freight rates show a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline. There may be a low - buying opportunity for the December contract, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, and the freight rates in the ocean - going routes continued to adjust with an expanding decline in the composite index. The national industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with high - tech manufacturing leading the growth. On September 19th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped by 14.3%. In the European route, the German economic situation is still低迷, and the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports dropped by 8.8%. In the Mediterranean route, the freight rate dropped by 5.8%. In the North American route, the US consumer confidence index hit a new low since May, and the freight rates to the US West and East basic ports dropped by 31.0% and 22.7% respectively. There are also updates on the Middle - East situation including actions of the Israeli military and Hamas in Gaza [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From September 15th to 22nd, the SCFIS for the European route dropped from 1440.24 to 1254.92, a decrease of 12.9%. The SCFIS for the US West route dropped from 1349.84 to 1193.64, a decrease of 11.6% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Transaction data for various contracts on September 23rd are provided, including EC2510, EC2512, etc. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1,100.0, a settlement price of 1,085.4, a decline of 2.0, and a decline rate of 0.18%. The trading volume was 28,527, and the open interest was 41,508 with a change of - 4,522 [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Futures continued to be weak, dampening market sentiment. Traders reduced prices to promote sales, leading to a decline in spot prices. Downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand. The market was in a state of low - level weak oscillation due to limited demand drive and insufficient market confidence [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7105 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-0.67%), with a trading volume of 180,000 lots and an increase in positions by 8837 lots to 589,676 lots. PP2601 closed at 6842 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan (-0.77%), with an increase in positions by 7134 lots to 654,200 lots [5][6]. - **Supply - side**: For polypropylene, the upstream maintenance level exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization and output. Due to the recent strengthening of propane prices, the profit of PDH plants continued to be compressed, and the operating load rate declined, alleviating supply - side pressure. Some maintenance plants will restart this week, and output may increase month - on - month. For PE, the maintenance volume declined from the high level, and the supply pressure increased month - on - month [6]. - **Demand - side**: Except for the increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, most other fields remained flat. The peak - season performance was lower than expected, and the downstream operating rate and orders were at a relatively low level year - on - year. Factories were cautious in raw material procurement, showing a situation of "peak season without prosperity", which had limited support for the raw material market. The destocking rhythm of social inventory in the middle stream was slow, and it was difficult to push up prices [6]. - **Macro - aspect**: The expectation of interest rate cuts was implemented, but the chemical sector showed a flat performance. There was still some support from the increasing demand for packaging products near the double festivals, but due to insufficient market confidence, there was no large - scale replenishment behavior, and the demand drive was limited [6]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 680,000 tons, a cumulative increase of 50,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 7.94%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price weakened and declined. The LLDPE price in North China was 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7150 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6450 - 6520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market supply trend increased, and producers still had the intention to sell at a discounted price. The propylene quotations mostly declined slightly, and downstream factories purchased at low prices. The low - end transactions in the market were acceptable [7]. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to decline, with a decline range of 10 - 70 yuan/ton. The new orders of downstream factories were limited, and the pre - festival procurement enthusiasm was insufficient. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6690 - 6780 yuan/ton, in East China was 6700 - 6840 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease rate, L basis, and PP basis, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][13][14]

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The logic of soybean shortage after the fourth quarter has been shaken due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on soybeans and its by - products, and some domestic oil mills have started to purchase Argentine soybeans, with orders for Argentine soybean meal starting in mid - to late August. The supply from September to November is sufficient, and the potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentina's soybean procurement and policy continuity, as well as the progress of Sino - US negotiations [6]. - With the loosening of the previous soybean shortage logic, frequent consultations between China and the US, and high inventory in reality, soybean meal prices have dropped significantly. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential positive factors and the technical indicators are weak. It is advisable to reduce positions to avoid risks. Potential positive factors such as the expected decline in US soybean yield and dry weather in Brazil are unlikely to be reflected in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level after a rapid decline [6]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Soybean meal futures contracts**: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all declined. The decline rates of 2601, 2509, and 2511 were - 3.37%, - 1.73%, and - 3.66% respectively. The trading volume of 2601 was 2372830, and the trading volume of 2511 was 167642 [6]. - **External market**: The US soybean futures contracts declined, with the main contract at 1020 cents. Argentina suspended export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal, reducing the previous 26% soybean export tax and 24.5% soybean oil and soybean meal export taxes to 0. After the tax reduction, Argentina's soybean CIF price to China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US [6]. 2. Industry News - On Monday, the Argentine government announced the suspension of export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. The measure will last until October 31 or until the total export volume reaches $7 billion [7]. 3. Data Overview - **USDA crop growth report**: As of the week of September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and the previous week was 63%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the market expectation of 12%. The defoliation rate was 61% [15]. - **Rosario Grain Exchange**: Argentina's grain and by - product exports in the 2025/26 season may reach a record 105.1 million tons, with grain and oilseed shipments expected to be 64.7 million tons (62% being corn), and oil and oilmeal exports estimated at 40.4 million tons, mostly from soybeans [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On September 23, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash declined for two consecutive trading days. The closing price was 1,273 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 2.60%, with a daily reduction of 4,582 lots in positions [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production decreased to 745,700 tons, a 2.02% week-on-week decline. Although the factory inventory continued to decline to 1.7556 million tons, 41,900 tons less than last Thursday, it remained at a high level. The total shipment volume reached 787,600 tons, a 0.25% week-on-week increase, and the overall shipment rate was 105.62%, a 2.39-percentage-point week-on-week increase [8]. - **Macro Situation**: There was no new policy information to alleviate the intense competition in the soda ash industry, and the possibility of relevant policy implementation in the short term was relatively low. - **Outlook**: The contradiction in the soda ash industry was alleviated in the short term, but the inventory was still high, and the fundamental driving force was insufficient. The supply was still in excess, and the pattern of oversupply in the market had not been effectively improved. The market price was expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: The overall glass production showed a slight upward trend but remained in the bottom range. The spot price rebounded, improving the industry's profit. The deep - processing orders remained basically unchanged, mainly driven by rigid demand. The inventory started to accumulate again. For float glass, the supply - side pressure was marginally relieved compared to last year, and the cost side provided some support, but the demand side was weak. The photovoltaic glass market experienced a significant price increase, driven by strong demand [9][10]. - **Macro Situation**: With the boost of peak - season demand and the strengthening of anti - intense competition expectations. - **Outlook**: The main futures contract of glass was expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term [10] Group 3: Data Overview - The report provided multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts of soda ash and glass, weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production [14][15][17]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Quotes: EG2601 closed at 4,212 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; EG2605 closed at 4,279 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. The trading volume of the main ethylene glycol futures contract on the 23rd was 131,327 lots, and the open interest was 331,822 lots [7] - Market Outlook: The current fundamentals of ethylene glycol are weak, and the macro - level support is insufficient. It is expected that ethylene glycol will maintain a low - level sideways consolidation [7] Group 3: Industry News - International Oil Prices: International oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive day. On September 22, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 was $62.64 per barrel, down $0.04 or 0.06%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 was $66.57 per barrel, down $0.11 or 0.16% [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market Prices: The mainstream transaction price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market was 4,270 - 4,315 yuan/ton, down 52.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the negotiation range in the Dongguan market was 4,270 - 4,330 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the negotiation range in the Fujian market was 4,270 - 4,330 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [8]