每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：10月24日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | 3071 | 3072 | 3076 | 3038 | 3046 | -0.75% | 1,081,693 | 2,050,545 | 81,220 | 1.39 | | HC2601 | 3256 | 3260 | 3263 | 3238 | 3250 | 0.03% | 429,946 | 1,501,496 | -182 | -0.07 | | SS2512 | 12765 | 12770 | 12840 | 12765 | 12810 | 0.71% | 137,431 | 144,179 | -22,232 | -1.94 | 021-606357 ...

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under study is the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The international market is affected by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks, the US government shutdown, and the progress of Brazilian soybean sowing. The domestic market is relatively weak compared to the external market. Future trends depend on the outcome of the negotiations, with expected increased volatility next week. It is recommended that investors hold empty or light positions, and aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For domestic soybean meal contracts, the prices of contracts such as soybean meal 2601, 2603, and 2511 all rose slightly. The external market of US soybean futures contracts was relatively strong, with the main contract at 1060 cents. The domestic soybean meal had a low - level volatile and slight rebound this week but was weaker than the external market [6] - The external market was affected by Sino - US economic and trade talks near the tariff increase date, the US - India agreement, and the US government shutdown. In South America, the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil was progressing normally and faster than last year. The domestic market was affected by the uncertainty of importing US soybeans and the inability to confirm potential positive factors due to the US government shutdown [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the outcome of the current round of negotiations. It is expected that the volatility will increase next week. It is recommended that investors hold empty or light positions, and aggressive investors can consider the option double - buying strategy [6] 3.2 Industry News - The International Grains Council (IGC) expects the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season to decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons year - on - year, the trade volume to increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, the consumption to decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons, and the ending stocks to decrease by 4 million tons to 79 million tons [9] - As of the week of October 21, about 39% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year [9] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) reported that last week (October 12 - 18), Brazil exported 1,660,345 tons of soybeans, 608,879 tons of soybean meal, and 1,437,346 tons of corn. This week (October 19 - 25), it plans to export 1,864,454 tons of soybeans, 440,243 tons of soybean meal, and 2,009,332 tons of corn [10]

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 10 月 27 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 鸡蛋 | 2601 | 3201 | 3236 | 3304 | 3207 | 3302 | 101 | 3.16% | 145802 | 139170 | 127691 | | 鸡蛋 | 2511 | 2837 | 2849 | 2885 | 2826 | 2876 | 39 | 1.37% | 100352 | 73573 | -13866 | | 鸡蛋 | 2512 | 2989 | 3027 | 3092 | 2999 | 3086 | 97 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current round of precious metals upward trend since late August may extend to 2026 due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, high geopolitical risks, and the acceleration of the global trade - currency system restructuring. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control their positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, weakening safe - haven demand and pressuring London gold to around $4080 per ounce. But the US federal government shutdown and Fed rate cuts support precious metals. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize between $3950 - $4050 per ounce. This week, focus on Sino - US trade talks, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed's rate - cut restart. Global trade - currency system restructuring and high geopolitical risks continue to drive gold demand. The upward trend of precious metals since late August may extend to 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control positions and beware of short - term adjustments. The support levels for London gold are $4130 and $3975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to precious metals, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, etc., but no specific analysis of these charts is given in the text [6][7][9]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russian President Putin stated that Moscow will never yield to external pressure and will respond overwhelmingly if its deep - seated targets are attacked. He also said that US and Western sanctions have little impact on Russia's economic well - being [17]. - The EU included two Chinese refineries (Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical) and PetroChina's trading unit (PetroChina Hong Kong) in the sanctions list against Russia, claiming they are major buyers of Russian crude oil. It also sanctioned a Chinese trading company for its role in Russia's sanctions - evasion [17]. - The US is preparing to investigate China's compliance with the trade agreement signed during Trump's first term [17]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase oil production by further canceling production cuts if necessary after the US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil giants, expecting demand to shift to the Gulf and Middle East regions [17].

Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [4] Investment Strategies Single - Side Strategies - **RB2601 and HC2601**: The rebound rhythm is undetermined. The latest prices are 3046 and 3250 respectively. Geopolitical easing and the improvement of steel terminal demand bring a steel price rebound, but it should be viewed with caution. The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. If it is through raw material price cuts, the negative feedback will be greater and the steel price increase process will be more tortuous; if it is through a significant improvement in terminal demand, the steel price increase will be smoother [6][7][8] - **J2601**: The latest price is 1757.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Recent coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel production enterprises has declined, coke inventory in ports and independent coking enterprises is generally low, and there is a demand for a second - round price increase in coke spot, but the acceptance process of steel mills is slow [6][9] - **JM2601**: The latest price is 1248.5. After a phased correction, it may continue to strengthen. Cold weather in most of the north, stricter coal mine safety production inspections, and a decline in Mongolian coal customs clearance have led to higher coal prices. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level, and although coking coal imports have recovered, there is still a year - on - year decline of more than 6% from January to September [6][9] Spread Arbitrage Strategies - **I2601**: The latest price is 771. It is expected to operate weakly. The five major steel products' production has recovered and the apparent demand has continued to rise, while the daily average pig iron output has declined for four consecutive weeks, falling below 2.4 million tons. Steel mill profits have been continuously narrowing, suppressing production enthusiasm and affecting raw material demand [6] Core Views - The steel price rebound due to geopolitical easing and improved terminal demand should be treated with caution, and the recovery path of steel mill profits is crucial [7][8] - Coke and coking coal futures are likely to continue to strengthen after a phased correction, supported by news and the spot market [9][10] - The iron ore price is under pressure in the short term due to compressed steel mill profits and weakening demand [11][12] Summary by Directory Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of October 24, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets rebounded with varying increases. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in major markets increased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in major markets increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 0.39 percentage points to 89.94% week - on - week). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in early October has significantly rebounded from the low in early January [13] - **Pig Iron and Electric Furnace**: The national daily average pig iron output has declined for 4 consecutive weeks since the high in late July (down 1.05 million tons or 0.44% to 2.399 million tons week - on - week). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills has declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks (down 0.90 percentage points to 52.30% week - on - week) [17] - **Five - Major Steel Products**: The weekly production of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills nationwide has rebounded. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills has declined [17] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities has declined for 2 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since the end of August. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities has declined from the high since early March [21] - **Downstream Demand**: From January to September, the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year (the decline widened by 1.0 percentage point compared with January - August). The national automobile production increased by 10.9% year - on - year (the increase widened by 0.4 percentage point compared with January - August) [21] - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. The disk profit of the rebar 2601 contract has shown a continuous 3 - week increase in the loss amplitude [25] - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit per Ton**: The gross profit per ton of long - process steel mill rebar calculated by the main spot price has shown a continuous 4 - week increase in the loss amplitude. The gross profit per ton of short - process steel mill rebar (at flat electricity price) has stabilized after a 6 - week decline [29] Conclusions and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The recovery path of steel mill profits will determine the price rebound rhythm. The steel price rebound should be viewed with caution [31] - **Basis**: The rebar basis has narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 110 and 190 yuan/ton in the future. The hot - rolled coil basis has slightly narrowed, and it is expected to fluctuate between 30 and 90 yuan/ton in the future [33][35] Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of October 24, the prices of major coke spot markets have been relatively stable for 3 consecutive weeks, and the prices of major coking coal markets have mainly continued to rise [36] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants nationwide has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 6 consecutive weeks. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises has rebounded from the low in mid - September [36] - **Inventory and Coking Plant Profit**: The coke port inventory has increased for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined significantly for 3 consecutive weeks. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has shown a continuous 2 - week loss, and the loss amplitude has increased in the recent week [39] - **Sample Mine Production, Operating Rate, and Inventory**: The daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines has declined. The operating rate of 523 sample mines has declined. The clean coal and raw coal inventories of 523 sample mines have declined after rising for 2 consecutive weeks [39] - **Coking Coal Import and Inventory**: From January to September, China's coking coal imports decreased by 6.1% year - on - year. The port coking coal inventory has increased. The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has increased significantly for 2 consecutive weeks, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises has declined [44] - **Raw Coal and Coke Production**: From January to September, China's raw coal production increased by 2.72% year - on - year, and the coke production increased by 3.50% year - on - year [44] Conclusions and Suggestions - Coke and coking coal may have a phased correction, but the overall strengthening trend is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the sustainability of the increase in downstream steel prices driven by costs [48][49] Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of October 23, the 62% Platts iron ore index has slightly declined. As of October 24, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port has slightly rebounded. The spreads between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB fines have changed [50] - **Inventory and Unloading Volume**: In the week of October 24, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports has continued to increase, and the daily average unloading volume at 45 ports has continued to decline. The inventory of imported ore for steel mills has decreased, and the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills has declined [55] - **Shipping and Arrival**: In the week of October 17, the iron ore shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased significantly. It is expected that the arrival volume will gradually increase in the near future [58] - **Domestic Ore Production and Operation**: From January to September 2025, China's domestic iron ore production decreased by 2.55% year - on - year. As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises has declined [62] - **Port Transaction Volume and Pig Iron Cost**: As of October 23, the 5 - day moving average of the iron ore transaction volume at major ports has declined. In the week of October 24, the average tax - free pig iron cost of 64 sample steel mills has continued to rise [64] - **Daily Average Pig Iron Output, Blast Furnace Operating Rate, and Capacity Utilization**: As of October 24, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has declined, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate has declined, the blast furnace operating rate has increased, and the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises has declined [67] - **Five - Major Steel Products Production and Inventory**: In the week of October 24, the actual weekly production of the five major steel products has rebounded, the apparent demand has increased, and the inventory has declined [70] - **Transportation Cost**: As of October 22, the main iron ore freight prices have mainly increased. As of October 23, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) have increased [76] Conclusions and Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Due to compressed steel mill profits, iron ore demand is under pressure, and the iron ore price is likely to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [80] - **Basis**: As of October 24, the basis between the Qingdao Port iron ore spot price (after moisture adjustment) and the iron ore futures main contract has widened. It is expected to narrow in the future, fluctuating between 30 and 90 yuan/ton [81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The launch of monthly average price futures contracts (covering LLDPE, PVC, and PP) by the Dalian Commodity Exchange is an important innovation for the futures market to serve the real economy. It fills the gap in the domestic average price futures contract type, enriches the domestic derivatives market products, and promotes the diversified and refined development of the futures market [7][12]. - Monthly average price futures can provide a price reference for the stable production and operation of the spot industry, help smooth price fluctuations, and meet the diverse risk management needs of enterprises. It simplifies the hedging process, reduces operating risks and costs, and improves the flexibility of capital use [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Average Price Futures Contract Listing - Average price futures are contracts based on the average price, settled in cash at maturity. The monthly average price futures contracts for three chemical products (LLDPE, PVC, and PP) will be listed for trading at 21:00 on October 28, 2025, with night trading available. The initial listed contracts are for the 2602, 2603, and 2604 months, and new contracts will be added monthly to cover six near - month contracts. The listing benchmark price is the settlement price on October 28, 2025 [7]. 3.2 Background of the Listing of Monthly Average Price Futures Contracts 3.2.1 International Overview of Monthly Average Price Futures - Internationally, monthly average price futures are mainly concentrated in industries where spot trading uses average price pricing, such as crude oil, petrochemical products, and non - ferrous metals. Multiple international exchanges have launched monthly average price futures to meet the pricing and hedging needs of the industry. For example, CME launched WTI crude oil monthly average price futures in 2006, ICE launched monthly average price futures contracts for Brent crude oil and natural gas in 2008, and LME launched non - ferrous metal monthly average price futures in 2014. International average price futures are divided into two types based on price sources: those using futures prices and those using spot prices [8]. 3.2.2 Plastic Product Trade Pricing Model - In international trade, plastic products such as polyethylene widely use the average price trade model. Overseas producers and traders often prefer to use the average price model to sign contracts with downstream customers. In domestic trade, the pricing models are more diverse, including "fixed price", "basis point pricing", weekly and monthly average prices. The average price trade can smooth short - term fluctuations [9][10]. 3.2.3 Domestic Chemical Futures Foundation and Conditions for Launching Monthly Average Price Contracts - The futures of polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene were launched on the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2007, 2009, and 2014 respectively. In 2024, their average daily trading volumes were 340,000 lots, 1.06 million lots, and 340,000 lots respectively, and the average daily open interests were 510,000 lots, 1.12 million lots, and 520,000 lots respectively. The proportion of legal entity customer positions in these three chemical futures was relatively high, laying a good foundation for the launch of monthly average price futures contracts [11]. 3.3 Significance of the Listing of Monthly Average Price Futures Contracts - It fills the gap in the domestic average price futures contract type, enriches the domestic derivatives market products, and promotes the diversified and refined development of the futures market. - It provides a relatively stable price reference for the market, helps smooth price fluctuations, and improves the stability of the petrochemical industry chain. In 2024, the annualized volatility of the daily prices of polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene futures was 7.8%, 14.4%, and 7.4% respectively, while that of the monthly average prices was 4.3%, 7.6%, and 4.3% respectively. - It simplifies the hedging process, reduces operating risks and costs, and improves the flexibility of capital use [12]. 3.4 Settlement Method of Average Price Futures Contracts - Monthly average price futures contracts use a three - stage settlement method: before the month before the contract month, the daily settlement price is the daily settlement price of the corresponding physical delivery futures contract; in a trading day of the month before the contract month, the daily settlement price is calculated as the average of the daily settlement prices of the corresponding physical delivery futures contract in all trading days of that month, giving a higher weight to the latest trading day; on the last trading day of the monthly average price, the daily settlement price is the arithmetic average of the daily settlement prices of the corresponding physical delivery futures contract in all trading days of the month before the contract month, and cash settlement is carried out on the last trading day [13][14]. 3.5 Interpretation of the Content of Monthly Average Price Futures Contracts 3.5.1 Trading Code - The trading codes for the monthly average price futures contracts of linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyvinyl chloride are "L Contract Month F", "PP Contract Month F", and "V Contract Month F" respectively. The contract months are from January to December. Other aspects such as trading unit, trading time, handling fee, margin, and price limit are the same as those of the corresponding physical delivery futures contracts [18]. 3.5.2 Last Trading Day and Delivery Date - The last trading day and delivery date of the monthly average price futures contracts for linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyvinyl chloride are the last trading day of the month before the contract month. For physical delivery futures contracts, the last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract month, and the last delivery date is the 3rd trading day after the last trading day [19]. 3.5.3 Delivery Method - The three chemical monthly average price futures contracts use cash settlement, where the exchange settles the profits and losses of both parties based on the settlement price and closes the open contracts at maturity without physical transfer [20]. 3.5.4 Position Limit - The position limits of the three chemical monthly average price futures contracts and physical delivery futures contracts are set separately. The position limit standard for the monthly average price futures contracts is set to one - fifth of the original physical delivery futures contract limit standard, and the position limit standard for the physical delivery futures contracts in non - delivery months is adjusted to four - fifths of the original standard. The position limit for individual customers in the delivery month is 0 [21].

1. Report Information - **Industry**: Agricultural products [1] - **Date**: October 24, 2025 [1] - **Research Team**: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3][4] 2. Fats and Oils 2.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The three major oils continued to decline this week, with palm oil having the largest decline of over 2%, followed by rapeseed oil, and soybean oil being the strongest. The overall oils sector remained in a volatile adjustment phase, searching for support below technically, while the basis quotation had little fluctuation [8]. - **Macro Factors**: China-US trade negotiations and Canada-China trade discussions related to agriculture are under way. Continued attention should be paid to specific agricultural issues in these negotiations [9]. - **Palm Oil**: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month-on-month. Exports increased by 2.5% - 3.4%. Production remained strong, and Indian demand was expected to slow after Diwali, pressuring prices. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy provided bottom support [9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Global soybean supply was abundant, domestic soybean oil inventory was at a historical high and slow to decline, but narrowing crushing margins were not conducive to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With capital outflow from the market, bullish sentiment weakened. Good Canadian rapeseed harvests and falling futures prices affected the domestic market. However, domestic supply remained uncertain due to unchanged China-Canada trade policies [10]. 2.2 Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of October 23, 2025, the price of first-grade soybean oil in East China was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan week-on-week; third-grade rapeseed oil was 10,050 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan week-on-week; and 24-degree palm oil in South China was 9,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan week-on-week [12]. - **Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 42nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils was 2.5568 million tons, down 37,600 tons week-on-week, a 1.45% decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.4171 million tons, down 45,600 tons; palm oil inventory was 529,800 tons, up 26,600 tons; and rapeseed oil inventory was 610,000 tons, down 18,500 tons [25]. - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: As of the end of the 42nd week, the average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 63.89%, up 17.33% from last week. The total soybean crushing volume was 2.389 million tons, up 658,400 tons. The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 7.1882 million tons, up from last week. The estimated arrival volume in October was about 8.807 million tons [28][29]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: The MPOC expected crude palm oil prices to remain above 4,400 ringgit for the rest of the year. From October 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.77% month-on-month according to MPOA data. If Indonesia implemented the B50 policy, its export supply would be reduced [37][43]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of the week of September 23, 2025, commodity funds held a net long position of -18,233 contracts in CBOT soybean futures and options, a decrease of 32,680 contracts from the previous week. In CBOT soybean oil futures and options, the net long position was 8,046 contracts, a decrease of 26,973 contracts [48]. 3. Live Pigs 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The national average live pig slaughter price fluctuated strongly this week. The price increased in the middle and later part of the week due to increased consumption, increased low - price segmentation by northern slaughterhouses, increased reluctance to sell, and reduced large - pig inventory. As of October 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per head was - 138 yuan, up 50.4 yuan week - on - week; the profit per head for purchasing piglets was - 378.6 yuan, up 53.6 yuan week - on - week [52]. - **Futures Market**: As of Thursday this week, the main live pig futures contract LH2601 rebounded and closed at 12,200 yuan/ton, up 295 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 2.48% increase, with a basis of - 570 yuan/ton [53]. 3.2 Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply**: The average price of 50 - kg binary sows was 1,546 yuan/head this week, down 1 yuan from last week. According to official data, the theoretical hog slaughter volume is expected to change slightly in the coming months. According to Yongyi data, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms decreased by 0.84% month - on - month in September. Overall, hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly until next June [61][62][63]. - **Medium - Term Supply**: The average price of 15 - kg piglets was 255 yuan/head this week, down 10 yuan from last week. As of September, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises increased by 1.42% month - on - month. The theoretical hog slaughter volume is expected to increase slightly from October to next March [77][78]. - **Short - Term Supply**: As of September, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased by 1.77% month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased in September. The proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in mid - October [79][80][81]. - **Current Supply**: In September, the actual slaughter completion rate of the supply side was 96.5%, and the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The average slaughter weight this week was 127.90 kg, down 0.35 kg week - on - week [85][86]. - **Import Supply**: In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, the same as last month and 20,000 tons less than the same period last year. From January to September 2025, the total pork imports were 790,000 tons, a 11.24% decrease compared with the same period last year [91]. - **Demand**: In mid - October, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased, but then cooled as the price rose. The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises increased by 3.36% week - on - week [93][95]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: On the supply side, hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly in the short and long term, but the pressure has eased. On the demand side, secondary fattening and terminal consumption are expected to improve, but the overall increase may be limited. The spot price is expected to continue to rebound, while the futures price may have limited upward space [100]. - **Strategy**: Futures investors are advised to wait and see; breeding enterprises should hold hedging short positions [102]. 4. Corn 4.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: This week, corn prices continued to decline seasonally, but the decline slowed. Northeast corn prices rose, North China prices first rose and then fell, and the selling area prices increased [104]. - **Futures Market**: As of October 23, the Dalian main 2601 contract closed at 2,140 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last Thursday, a 0.19% increase [105]. 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The national autumn grain harvest progress is slow. As of the week of October 17, the northern port inventory was 1.04 million tons, up 110,000 tons week - on - week; the southern port inventory was 480,000 tons, up 93,000 tons week - on - week [109]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices continued to rise this week due to tight supply, increased demand, and policy support. As of October 23, the national average corn price was 2,218 yuan/ton, and the wheat price was 2,483 yuan/ton [110]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China imported 15.83 million tons of grain, a 12.3% increase month - on - month and a 12.5% increase year - on - year. The import volume of various grains showed different trends. The import advantage of substitute grains may weaken in the future [117][118]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a 3.4% increase month - on - month and a 5.0% increase year - on - year. Hog slaughter is expected to increase slightly, so feed production is also expected to increase. As of October 23, the average inventory time of national sample feed enterprises was 24.04 days, down 0.40 days from last week [132][133][136]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: As of the week of October 23, the national corn processing volume was 574,000 tons, down 7,600 tons from last week; the corn starch production was 287,700 tons, down 5,800 tons; the开机 rate was 55.62%, down 1.12%. The processing profit of starch enterprises fluctuated slightly. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased by 6.5% from last week [137][139]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 Chinese corn production and consumption forecasts remain unchanged, but the import volume is adjusted down by 1 million tons to 6 million tons. The price is expected to be stable [146][147]. 4.3 Future Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: On the supply side, new corn is listed, the cost decreases, and the substitution advantage of wheat and imported grains weakens. On the demand side, feed demand is good, but the inventory intention is low, and deep - processing demand recovers. The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the futures price will fluctuate around the cost [148][149]. - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should purchase on demand; futures investors should hold short positions and reduce positions on dips [149]. 5. Soybean Meal 5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **External Market**: CBOT soybeans were relatively strong due to expectations of China - US negotiations and the US - India agreement. The Brazilian new - season soybean planting progress is faster than last year [153]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal rebounded slightly, but was weaker than the external market. The market is concerned about the outcome of China - US negotiations and the high inventory of soybean meal. Investors are advised to hold light positions or use option strategies [154]. 5.2 Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: According to the USDA September report, new - season US soybean planting and harvest areas decreased year - on - year. There is a possibility of further downward adjustment of yield. Brazilian soybean planting progress is fast [155][156][157]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of September 18, US soybean exports were at a low level in the new season, especially exports to China [163]. - **Domestic Soybean Import and Crushing**: As of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The soybean crushing rate and volume are expected to remain high in the short term. The soybean import volume in September was 12.869 million tons. The port soybean inventory will be high in the near future and then decrease [168][169]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: As of October 17, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 853,400 tons, down 87,700 tons from last week. Terminal demand is relatively good [176]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of October 23, the basis of the 01 contract decreased, and the 11 - 1 spread was at a low level [182]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 23, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were 42,582 lots, slightly down from last week [186]. 6. Eggs 6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot price first decreased and then rebounded, but the upward pressure appeared on Friday. It is expected to peak and fluctuate next week [188]. - **Futures Market**: The futures price rebounded this week as the spot price stopped falling. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the rebound and sell out - of - the - money call options [188]. 6.2 Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of September, the national laying hen inventory was at a historical high, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The egg - chick replenishment momentum slowed down in September [189]. - **Inventory Proportion**: In September, the proportion of reserve laying hens under 120 days old decreased, the proportion of 120 - 450 - day - old laying hens increased, and the proportion of hens over 450 days old decreased [192].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Copper Core View - Affected by the improved macro - atmosphere and strong medium - term fundamentals, copper prices are expected to continue rising next week [7]. Market Review - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (84410, 87860), with total positions rising 7% to 584,000 lots. LME copper operated in the range of (10536.5, 10969). The net long position of funds decreased by about 3% to 57,476 lots, and the commercial net short position decreased by 7% to 73,093 lots [7]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. SMM seven - port copper concentrate inventory decreased. In September, the import of copper concentrates and their ores decreased month - on - month. Domestic cold - material processing fees fell again. In September, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [10][11][13]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased slightly, while that of refined copper rods decreased. The operating rate of wire and cable and enameled wire increased slightly, but the overall consumption was lackluster [15][16]. Spot - Domestic copper stocks decreased by 0.08 to 274,000 tons, and bonded area stocks decreased by 0.49 to 92,800 tons. The LME + COMEX market increased stocks by 1,439 tons to 450,000 tons [17]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Due to short - term supply - demand boom, continuous inventory reduction, and unresolved supply - side disturbances, lithium carbonate futures are expected to move up [27]. Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures rose, with the main contract operating in the range of (75340, 80880), and total positions increasing by 7.5% to 812,000 lots. Spot prices also moved up, but the trading was dull [26]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Lithium ore prices moved up, and the losses of salt plants increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high, and the production costs of purchasing lithium spodumene and lepidolite increased [30][31]. Demand - The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and battery cells all increased. The domestic power market is in the peak season, and the demand for materials is supported [32][33][34]. Spot - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons [36][37]. Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with a low - buying strategy recommended [46]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai aluminum rose unilaterally, hitting a new high for the year. The overseas market is worried about tariff risks. The demand side has gradually fulfilled its expectations in the peak season, but the downstream performance lacks highlights [42]. Fundamental Changes Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tight, and prices in some regions have risen slightly. Imported bauxite prices are weak [47][48]. Alumina - Alumina prices have initially stabilized, with the bottom slightly rising. The import window remains open [50][51]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The operating capacity remains unchanged. The export of aluminum profiles has slightly recovered, and the import window of aluminum ingots remains closed. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined slightly, and aluminum ingot stocks have decreased slightly [56][64][66]. Group 5: Nickel Core View - Nickel prices remain in a range - bound pattern, with support at the 120,000 level. Pay attention to overseas market changes and Indonesian policy risks [80]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai nickel was in a narrow - range shock in the first four days and rose on Friday, but it has not broken out of the range - bound pattern. The futures market maintains a contango structure, and the import window remains closed [75][80]. Fundamental Changes Nickel Ore - The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores remained stable this week. Some smelters have started procurement plans in advance [81]. Ferronickel - Ferronickel prices continued to fall this week, and it is expected that the downward trend will continue [80]. Electrolytic Nickel - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing, but the output is difficult to increase significantly in the short term [92][93]. Nickel Sulfate - Nickel salt prices remained stable this week. It is expected that the supply of nickel sulfate will still increase slightly in October [96][98]. Stainless Steel - The inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased slightly this week, but it is expected that the inventory will not decline significantly [103]. Group 6: Zinc Core View - Zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. The supply of zinc ingots has increased, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the implementation of export volume and gradually enter the market for reverse arbitrage [106]. Market Review - LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the risk of structural shortage has increased. Shanghai zinc rose oscillatingly. The import window has been deeply closed since July, and there is a small amount of exports [105]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Domestic zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. In October, the overall output of refined zinc increased month - on - month. The import window remains closed, and the export window is open [115][116]. Demand - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide all decreased slightly, and the overall demand has declined [117][118]. Spot - Domestic zinc stocks decreased to 162,100 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased to below 40,000 tons [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows an external - stable and internal - weak pattern, with large deflationary pressure and no urgent need for a new round of comprehensive growth - stabilizing measures. The new policy - based financial instruments are expected to boost the economy in Q4 [4]. - Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, and the upcoming consultations and summit are expected to reach agreements on relaxing export controls, commodity purchases, and extending the suspension of high - tariffs [15]. - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee sets the goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, aiming to promote high - quality development and modernization [17]. - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in H2 2025, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be oscillatingly strong with pressure [19][21]. - The upward trend of precious metals since late August may continue until 2026, but investors need to control positions due to short - term adjustment risks [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - **GDP**: In Q3 2025, China's real GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from Q2. The nominal GDP grew 3.73% year - on - year, a 0.21 - percentage - point decline from the previous quarter. The GDP deflator shrank 1.02% year - on - year, with deflationary pressure remaining high [4]. - **Investment**: From January to September 2025, cumulative fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, turning from a 0.5% increase in January - August. Real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4%, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% [6]. - **Consumption**: In September 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from August [6]. - **Output**: In September 2025, industrial output increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase from August [7]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, new - home sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and new - home sales volume decreased by 7.9% year - on - year. Housing prices continued to decline, and inventory pressure increased [8][10]. 3.1.2 Focus - Sino - US trade tensions have shown signs of easing. After multiple rounds of tariff hikes and counter - measures, the two sides will hold the fifth - round economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27, and the leaders will meet on October 30 in South Korea [11][15]. 3.1.3 Policy - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee was held from October 20 - 23, 2025. It put forward the main goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, including high - quality development, technological self - reliance, and social progress [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range of 95 - 102 in H2 2025. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be oscillatingly strong with pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield will fluctuate between 3.8% - 4.5% [19][21][23]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1052.4 tons, 22.8% higher than the low point in May 2024, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15469 tons, 16% higher than the low point in May 2024 [24][25]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and currency system support the upward trend of gold prices. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices have entered a new upward trend since late August. The short - term adjustment risks exist, but the upward trend may continue until 2026 [28][29][32]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - silver ratio has rebounded slightly in the second half of October. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has changed from negative to positive, and the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has increased [33][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of October 23, the carbon quota price in the national carbon market was 53.87 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.18%. The current carbon price level is equivalent to the opening price in 2021 and has declined by over 50% compared to the peak in 2024. The low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rules, and the price may stabilize after the selling pressure subsides in November [7]. - The "十五五" period will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, construct a new energy system, and shift from the energy consumption dual - control system to the carbon emission dual - control system. Energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions will be carried out in key industries, aiming to save over 150 million tons of standard coal and reduce about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - The carbon quota price in the national carbon market was 53.87 yuan/ton as of October 23, with a weekly increase of 3.18%. Since June this year, the carbon quota price has been falling, and the current price is similar to the 2021 opening price, down over 50% from the 2024 peak. The optimal carry - over rate is about 40%, and surplus enterprises can carry over 60% of their surplus quotas to 2025, but they need to apply before June 10, 2026. The current low carbon price is related to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises, and the price may stabilize after November [7]. - In October 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 55.39 yuan/ton, the selling price is 60.63 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 58.00 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price of CEA is 62.10 yuan/ton, the selling price is 70.45 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 66.28 yuan/ton. In October 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 69.00 yuan/ton, the selling price is 76.83 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 72.92 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Market News - According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 20, the GDP in the first three quarters of China was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The GDP in the first, second, and third quarters increased by 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [9]. - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that the total electricity consumption in September was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The electricity consumption in the third quarter was 2.9 trillion kWh, which was high due to high - temperature processes in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [9][10]. - On October 24, it was announced that during the "十五五" period, efforts will be made to develop non - fossil energy, promote the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of industries and lifestyles. By 2030, the utilization of bulk solid waste is expected to reach about 4.5 billion tons. The carbon emission dual - control system will be implemented, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions will be carried out in key industries [10]. 3.3 Market Data - No specific data content is provided in the given text, only the names of the figures are mentioned, such as "Figure 3: Year - on - year growth rate of power generation (%)" and "Figure 4: Year - on - year growth rate of newly installed power generation equipment (%)" [13].