Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market funds are like a seesaw, shifting from the anti - involution logic to the industrial supply - demand logic. The 2601 contract faces a large discount and high industrial inventory. Before the implementation of specific anti - involution policies, the market focus has switched to the industrial supply - demand logic. Recently, domestic agricultural products have continued to decline, with low valuations and record - high positions, indicating intense capital games [3][5]. - In terms of specific sector varieties, building materials are bearish, and feed is bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Week - long Market Conditions - Last week's overall market was weak, with anti - involution and energy - chemical varieties showing a downward trend. As the 2509 contract entered the delivery month, the delivery price provided a benchmark, and the next main contract will compete around this price. The current contradiction is the large basis discount and the lack of a clear implementation path for specific anti - involution industrial policies. Before the implementation of expected policies, the 2601 contract of anti - involution varieties will still trade based on the logic of basis regression. Glass, soda ash, coking coal and other varieties have a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. Short - term bearishness is due to the actual supply - demand logic of the industrial end, while long - term bullishness is supported by anti - involution at the bottom. Once demand shows signs of improvement, the overall valuation of industrial products will significantly increase [4]. - Exchange measures such as position limits and fee increases have led to large - scale capital outflows from anti - involution varieties. The pre - condition for large funds to participate in a variety is sufficient trading volume and open interest for smooth entry and exit. When the liquidity of a variety begins to shrink, large funds will choose to partially exit to avoid liquidity risks, causing price adjustments [4]. Capital Flow and Market Logic - Capital has gradually flowed out of black and oil - seed varieties, and the soybean - palm oil spread has rebounded. From the perspective of the term structure, the reverse - spread structure of glass, soda ash and other varieties has exerted significant selling pressure on the 2601 contract. The industrial supply - demand logic and basis are suppressing price rebounds. Without signs of improvement in demand, even with anti - involution expectations, funds are hesitant to take action. Therefore, the industrial - end logic may dominate in the future [5]. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital flow was - 7.401 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals had a capital outflow of 322 million yuan, non - ferrous metals had an inflow of 952 million yuan, black metals had an inflow of 166 million yuan, energy had an outflow of 663 million yuan, chemicals had an inflow of 156 million yuan, feed and breeding had an outflow of 257 million yuan, oil - seeds had an outflow of 2.855 billion yuan, and soft commodities had an inflow of 692 million yuan [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data**: The data includes price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position - difference percentile, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and copper [9]. - **Energy - Chemical Weekly Data**: Similar to the above, it provides data for energy - chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - **Agricultural Products Weekly Data**: It shows data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The asphalt market shows no better - than - expected performance during the peak season. In the short term, it mainly follows cost fluctuations. The supply side remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, with the overall fundamentals weakening month - on - month. In the medium - to - long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, but there will still be a lot of rainfall in stages. The reform of consumption tax in Shandong has not been further expanded, so South China remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past three years [1]. - As of August 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3510 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton from a week ago), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 20 yuan/ton from a week ago), the North China spot price was 3650 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, unchanged from a week ago), and the South China spot price was 3500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton from a week ago) [7]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short sell the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 25% in the range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot positions can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Core Contradictions - Supply side: Stable [2]. - Demand side: Affected by rainfall and capital shortages, demand cannot be effectively released, with weak performance during the peak season. However, it is expected to improve in the medium - to - long term as construction conditions get better in autumn [2]. - Cost side: After the meeting between US and Russian leaders and OPEC's production increase, the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost has been alleviated [2]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors: Small pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low start - up rate with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of over - capacity reduction [6]. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the short - term drag on demand by the rainy season in the South, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate driven by the consumption tax reform in Shandong [6].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather has gradually recovered. In the short term, Sino-US talks have increased the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. The domestic soybean system has weakened due to Sino-US talks in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month can open up the upward space. The domestic rapeseed system also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract price from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation continues to give high support to the far - month contract, but due to the recent negotiation expectation, the short - term sentiment may further suppress the market. The timing of going long needs to pay attention to the subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - The real pressure on the soybean meal side focuses on the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic of the market switches to the far - month, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybean raw materials in the country continues to be at a seasonal high, the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. In terms of arrivals, it is expected to be 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, the subsequent soybean arrivals are expected to face a gap after the first quarter of next year [6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about the decline in meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3055, up 16 (0.53%); soybean meal 05 is 2820, up 6 (0.21%); soybean meal 09 is 3022, up 33 (1.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2513, up 30 (1.21%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2424, up 16 (0.66%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2550, up 8 (0.31%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1048.25, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1214, down 0.0333 (-0.47%) [7][9]. Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 225, up 9; RM01 - 05 is 75, up 20; M05 - 09 is - 175, down 12; RM05 - 09 is - 134, down 8; M09 - 01 is - 50, up 3; RM09 - 01 is 59, down 12; the soybean meal Rizhao spot price is 3000, unchanged, and the basis is - 39, up 6; the rapeseed meal Fujian spot price is 2534, down 21, and the basis is 51, down 3; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 466, up 21, and the futures spread is 556, up 12 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4539.2712 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and down 0.1941 yuan/week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3973.63 yuan/ton, down 2.21 yuan/day and down 66.71 yuan/week; the cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 738.0929 yuan/ton, up 61.6559 yuan/day and up 57.307 yuan/week; the import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 604.8362 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and up 359.0468 yuan/week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 120.0737 yuan/ton, down 17.0232 yuan/day and down 0.0282 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 724 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 93 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 815 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 121 yuan/week [11].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily risk management report on the polyester industry dated August 29, 2025 [1][3] - It focuses on ethylene glycol in the polyester industry, analyzing its supply - demand, market trends, and providing trading strategies [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating mentioned in the content Group 3: Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol has no obvious fundamental drivers currently. In the short - term, commodity sentiment is expected to face a correction during the policy vacuum period. However, due to low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, it is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend, oscillating between 4350 - 4550. Trading strategy is to go long on dips within the range, and for the medium - to - long - term, observe the peak season performance of downstream polyester. Long positions can be combined with selling near - month out - of - the - money call options for covered call operations [5] Group 4: Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4300 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%; for PX it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a percentile of 17.7%; for PTA it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a percentile of 4.6%; for bottle chips it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a percentile of 0.9% [4] Group 5: Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, sell 25% of EG2601 futures at 4550 - 4700 to lock in profits; buy EG2510P4400 put options and sell EG2510C4600 call options, with a total hedging ratio of 50%, to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [4] Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low, buy 50% of EG2601 futures at 4350 - 4450 to lock in procurement costs; sell 75% of EG2510P4400 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [4] Group 6: Market Drivers Bullish Factors - South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually, which may impact ethylene glycol raw material supply and ethylene production costs; planned port arrivals this week are 85,100 tons, and next Monday's port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons, tightening spot liquidity; loom load has been slightly increasing, with some autumn and winter orders starting in September and foreign trade orders recovering, which is expected to boost the load of filaments and staple fibers [8] Bearish Factors - The total supply load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%), with ethylene - based and coal - based production loads increasing. Next week, some plants plan to overhaul while others plan to restart and increase load, and the total load is expected to continue to rise [9] Group 7: Price and Related Data Table - The table shows price data of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. on August 29, 2025, August 28, 2025, and August 22, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, as well as data on spreads, processing fees, and production and sales rates [12][13]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the cotton and cotton yarn industry. Core Viewpoints - New cotton is entering the concentrated boll - opening stage in Xinjiang, with the expected picking time earlier than last year. Attention should be paid to rainfall in September. Continuous rainy days may affect cotton quality and harvest progress. Currently, the weather forecast shows a possible temperature drop in early September in Xinjiang and precipitation in northern Xinjiang in the first ten - day period, which may be unfavorable for boll - opening. [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 200,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for cotton imports under processing trade to supplement market supply before new cotton is on the market, which is in line with market expectations. The quota is issued based on import contracts, and the quota certificate is valid for 2 months after issuance, having a limited impact on the market. Domestic inventory remains tight before new cotton arrives. [5] - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, downstream finished - product inventories are further reduced, but profits have not significantly recovered. Downstream confidence is insufficient, and orders are still lacking. [5] - From August 27, the US will impose an additional 25% tariff on India. In response, India has extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs from September 30 to December 31. From January to June this year, the US imported about 276,400 tons of cotton products from India, accounting for about 19% of its total imports. Under the significant tariff increase, India's exports may face challenges, and future orders may shift. [5] - The low - inventory situation before new cotton is on the market still supports cotton prices. The strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak sales season of downstream products and the time when new cotton comes onto the market. [6] Summary of Different Regions Domestic Market Supply - As of August 21, the national new cotton sales rate was 98.1%, 5.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 7.9 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. [1] Import - In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. The cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cotton cloth import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.57%. [1] Demand - In July, domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 24.63% and a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. The export value of textiles and clothing in July was 26.766 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.06%. [1] Inventory - As of August 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July. Among them, commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons from the end of July, and industrial inventory was 924,200 tons, an increase of 25,800 tons from the end of July. [1] International Market US Market - **Supply**: As of August 24, the boll - setting rate of cotton in the US was 81%, 7 percentage points behind the same period last year and 6 percentage points behind the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 20%, 4 percentage points behind the same period last year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 54%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month and a 14 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. [2] - **Demand**: From August 15 - 21, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 - season upland cotton was 40,665 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 70%. The shipment volume of upland cotton was 25,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9%. The net signing volume of Pima cotton was 885 tons, and the shipment volume of Pima cotton was 3,175 tons. There were no signings for the 2026/2027 - season upland cotton and Pima cotton this week. [2] Southeast Asian Market - **Supply**: As of August 25, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.85 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.6%. [2] - **Demand**: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export value was 3.911 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In June, Bangladesh's clothing export value was 2.788 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 28.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.31%. In July, India's clothing export value was 1.34 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export value was 1.522 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60% and a year - on - year increase of 7.59%. [2] Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 01 was 14,240 yuan, with a weekly increase of 210 yuan and a rise rate of 1.5%. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 was 14,200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 210 yuan and a rise rate of 1.5%. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13,790 yuan, with a weekly increase of 30 yuan and a rise rate of 0.22%. [19][23] - **Spot Price Changes**: The price of CC Index 3128B was 15,328 yuan, with an increase of 85 yuan and a rise rate of 0.56%. The price of CC Index 2227B was 13,412 yuan, with an increase of 71 yuan and a rise rate of 0.53%. The price of CC Index 2129B was 15,603 yuan, with an increase of 75 yuan and a rise rate of 0.48%. [23] - **Spread Changes**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan, with no change. The CF5 - 9 spread was 410 yuan, an increase of 180 yuan. The CF9 - 1 spread was - 450 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan. [23] - **Import Price Changes**: The price of FC Index M was 13,492 yuan, a decrease of 14 yuan and a decline rate of 0.1%. The price of FCY Index C32s was 21,245 yuan, an increase of 13 yuan and a rise rate of 0.06%. [23] - **Cotton Yarn Price Changes**: The closing price of cotton yarn futures was 20,140 yuan, with a weekly increase of 80 yuan and a rise rate of 0.4%. The spot price of cotton yarn was 20,780 yuan, with an increase of 60 yuan and a rise rate of 0.29%. [23]

Group 1: Report's Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction of the current spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is the rhythm control in the time dimension, not the direction choice. The trend of reducing the depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar is certain, and the key variables are the specific timing of the appreciation start and the speed control during the process [2][31][34] - In the short - term, the RMB appreciation benefits from policy guidance and the A - share dividends brought by market sentiment repair. The continuous upward adjustment of the RMB central parity rate has significantly increased market trading activity, laying a kinetic energy foundation for the exchange rate to break through the previous narrow - range oscillation range [2][31] - In the short - term, the probability of the RMB exchange rate directly returning to the "6 era" is low. It is more likely to be in the process of gradually repairing to the reasonable equilibrium center, as the current appreciation depends more on policy guidance and short - term market sentiment support, and there is also policy - level rhythm control [3][31] - The current exchange rate market shows a differentiated feature of "increased volatility at the spot end and strengthened trend at the swap end". The spot exchange rate fluctuates widely under the influence of sentiment and short - term funds, while the swap end maintains a clear trend driven by interest rate parity repair and changes in the US - China interest rate spread [3][32] - From a policy perspective, the central bank may guide the exchange rate to return through a gradual "small - step and fast - run" operation. Before the exchange rate breaks through the 7.10 mark, the central bank may moderately slow down the upward adjustment speed of the central parity rate; if it breaks through 7.10 smoothly, the central bank may gradually increase the intervention [4][33] - In the medium - term, for the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB to achieve a trend - strengthening (including having the basis to return to the "6 era"), two key conditions are required: the US dollar index enters a clear downward channel, and the domestic economic fundamentals show substantial positive changes [7][34] Group 2: Driving Forces of RMB Appreciation - The Fed's monetary policy stance has shifted from hawkish to dovish, especially the loose signal released by Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, creating a favorable external environment for the RMB [10] - Domestic exchange - rate stabilization policies have taken effect, and counter - cyclical adjustment tools have effectively curbed the RMB depreciation expectation and promoted the market's expectation of the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB to gradually tend to balance [10] - The recovery of the A - share market has driven up risk appetite and further stimulated the RMB's catch - up demand [10] Group 3: Role of Policy and Market in Exchange Rate Movement - Policy has played an important role in the process of the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB breaking below 7.15. The central parity rate has continuously released stable signals to guide market expectations. At the same time, market forces are also gradually strengthening, as evidenced by the re - emergence of the stock - exchange linkage effect [12] Group 4: Impact of Resident Deposit Movement - Resident deposit "movement" refers to the process of residents shifting a large amount of savings from the banking system to non - bank financial investment fields. It is mainly driven by income and expectations, and has multiple impacts on the financial market and economic structure [21] - Recently, the "migration" of resident deposits to non - bank financial institutions has provided continuous incremental funds for the stock market, helping to raise the reasonable valuation center of the A - share market and laying a solid foundation for the index - level market [22] - The "household deposit/total market value" chart has three core defects and cannot be used as direct evidence of resident deposit "movement". Although there is a lack of real - time data verification, potential capital inflows can provide marginal and phased support for the RMB exchange rate, but its sustainability and actual impact scale need to be rationally evaluated [27][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the prices of each monthly contract of the container shipping index (European route) futures fluctuated slightly downward. As of the close, the prices of all EC monthly contracts declined. From the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional investors on the exchange, the long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 688 lots to 28,238 lots, and the short positions decreased by 619 lots to 30,214 lots. The trading volume increased by 1,269 lots to 28,527 lots (bilateral). ONE continued to lower the spot container quotes for the European route in early September, which was negative for the futures price trend. In the current off - season with weakening demand, the European route freight rates continued to decline. For the future market, it is more likely that EC will continue the trend of fluctuating and falling back, and attention should be paid to the risk of a low - level rebound in some contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained container positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about freight rate drops, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's container positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling suggestion in the range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase the blank sailing rate or are about to enter the peak market season and hope to book containers according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent freight rate increases and additional transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the container booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying suggestion in the range of 1150 - 1250 [1]. Market Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Israeli military said it was preparing to expand military operations against Hamas in Gaza City [2]. - **Negative Factors**: ONE continued to lower the European route quotes in early September, and the SCFI European route accelerated its decline [3]. EC Basis Daily Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 729.20 | 24.00 | 48.00 | | EC2512 | 427.50 | 8.30 | 98.50 | | EC2602 | 582.10 | - 8.10 | 56.90 | | EC2604 | 785.80 | 11.60 | 60.10 | | EC2606 | 614.1 | - 2.10 | - 136.07 | [4] EC Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1261.0 | - 1.87% | - 3.67% | EC2510 - 2602 | - 147.1 | - 32.1 | 8.9 | | EC2512 | 1562.7 | - 0.53% | - 5.93% | EC2602 - 2606 | 32 | 6 | - 3 | | EC2602 | 1408.1 | 0.58% | - 3.88% | EC2606 - 2510 | 115.1 | 26.1 | - 5.9 | | EC2604 | 1204.4 | - 1.77% | - 4.75% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 301.7 | - 15.7 | 50.5 | | EC2606 | 1376.1 | 0.15% | - 3.77% | EC2512 - 2602 | 154.6 | - 16.4 | - 89.3 | | EC2608 | 1561 | - 1.11% | - | EC2602 - 2604 | 203.7 | 19.7 | 3.2 | [5] Container Shipping Spot Container Quotes - On September 11, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1,160, a $5 increase from the previous value in the same period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1,940, a $10 increase from the previous value in the same period. - In early September, for ONE's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1,674/1,374, a $130 decrease from the previous value in the same period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2,143, a $200 decrease from the previous value in the same period [7]. Global Freight Rate Index | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Points) | 1990.2 | 2180.17 | - 189.97 | - 8.71% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Points) | 1041.38 | 1106.29 | - 64.91 | - 5.87% | | SCFI: European Route ($/TEU) | 1481 | 1668 | - 187 | - 11.21% | | SCFI: US West Route ($/FEU) | 1923 | 1644 | 279 | 16.97% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 1916 | 1887 | 29 | 1.54% | [8] Global Major Port Waiting Times | Port | 2025 - 08 - 28 | 2025 - 08 - 27 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 0.370 | 0.542 | - 0.172 | 0.855 | | Shanghai Port | 1.469 | 1.646 | - 0.177 | 1.185 | | Yantian Port | 0.774 | 1.008 | - 0.234 | 0.719 | | Singapore Port | 0.786 | 0.669 | 0.117 | 0.545 | | Jakarta Port | 0.782 | 0.601 | 0.181 | 0.969 | | Long Beach Port | 2.185 | 2.403 | - 0.218 | 1.805 | | Savannah Port | 1.216 | 1.417 | - 0.201 | 1.858 | [13] Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | Ship Type | 2025 - 08 - 28 | 2025 - 08 - 27 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.896 | 15.911 | - 0.015 | 15.681 | | 3000+ | 14.882 | 14.905 | - 0.023 | 14.96 | | 1000+ | 13.264 | 13.236 | 0.028 | 13.299 | | Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | [23]

国债期货日报 2025年8月29日 股债相关性降低 观点：转入震荡 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 周五期债全线收涨，长端与超长品种日内窄幅波动，中短端品种日内震荡向上，表现稍强。现券收益率全线 下行。公开市场净回笼4783亿，主因今日有9000亿买断式逆回购到期，但此前已超额续作。资金面宽松， DR001略升至1.33%。 日内消息： 1.中共中央、国务院发布《关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》：转变城市发展理念，更加注重以人为本；转变 城市发展方式，更加注重集约高效；转变城市发展动力，更加注重特色发展；转变城市工作重心，更加注重 治理投入；转变城市工作方法，更加注重统筹协调。 2.发改委：发展"人工智能+"坚决避免无序竞争和一拥而上，未来1-2年是人工智能落地的关键窗口期。 行情研判： 今日A股高位震荡，日内股债相关性降低。若下周股市不出现加速上涨行情，债市有望小幅反弹或转入震荡， 暂时对向上空间保持谨慎。周末将公布9月PMI数据，市场对制造业景气度预期不高，关注数据是否延续下滑 态势。操作思路上以小波段为主，空仓者逢低做多，反弹有利即可出 ...

Group 1: Index Performance - The Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.05% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][4] - Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index had the largest increase of 0.26%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.05%. The Nanhua Black Index had the largest decline of -1.04%, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.18% [1][4] - Among the theme indices, the Economic Crops Index had the largest increase of 0.5%, and the Energy Index had the smallest increase of 0.06%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -0.92%, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest decline of -0.02% [1][4] - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Tin Index had the largest increase of 2.16%, and the Industrial Silicon Index had the largest decline of -2.1% [4] Group 2: Sector - Specific Single - Variety Index Performance Energy and Chemical Sector - Synthetic ammonia declined by -0.79%, polyvinyl chloride by -0.66%, styrene by -1.02%, LPG by -0.18%, PTA by -0.17%, and some product increased by 0.52% [2] Black Sector - Some varieties in the black sector had a single - variety index increase of 0.62% [2] Agricultural Products Sector - Palm oil declined by -1.04%, rapeseed meal by -0.20%, rapeseed oil by -0.17%, rapeseed by 0.49%, rapeseed cake by 1.21%, and corn by 0.27% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped 3.82 points, a decline of -0.15%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and palm oil, with the crude oil index down -1.65% and contributing -0.27%, and the palm oil index down -2.88% and contributing -0.13% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 16.12 points, a -0.44% decline. The most influential varieties were crude oil and coke, with the crude oil index contributing -0.29% and the coke index contributing -0.12% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with iron ore being the most influential variety, contributing 0.38% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index decreased 18.6 points, a -1.11% decline. Crude oil was the most influential variety, contributing -0.41% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index dropped 10.61 points, a -0.96% decline. Palm oil was the most influential variety, contributing -0.38% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2521.31 | 2525.13 | -3.82 | -0.15% | 2544.65 | 2517.10 | 27.54 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1273.01 | 1250.91 | 22.10 | 1.77% | 1273.01 | 1250.91 | 22.10 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3614.83 | 3630.95 | -16.12 | -0.44% | 3665.33 | 3611.26 | 54.08 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6394.54 | 6365.05 | 29.48 | 0.46% | 6436.44 | 6365.05 | 71.39 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1664.76 | 1683.37 | -18.60 | -1.11% | 1696.83 | 1664.76 | 32.07 | | Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1700.10 | 1691.68 | 8.42 | 0.50% | 1708.13 | 1691.68 | 16.46 | | Black Index NHFI | 2533.25 | 2535.84 | -2.59 | -0.10% | 2579.12 | 2533.25 | 45.87 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1096.43 | 1107.04 | -10.61 | -0.96% | 1109.32 | 1095.92 | 13.40 | | Nanhua Comprehensive Consumption NHCIMi | 1181.26 | 1188.65 | -7.39 | -0.62% | 1195.39 | 1178.85 | 16.54 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1056.77 | 1068.99 | -12.22 | -1.14% | 1078.80 | 1053.33 | 25.47 | | Petrochemical Consumption NHPCI | 950.44 | 960.51 | -10.07 | -1.05% | 964.55 | 950.44 | 14.10 | | Coal Chemical Industry Investment AHCCI | 1015.90 | 1031.95 | -16.05 | -1.55% | 1036.83 | 1015.90 | 20.93 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1054.58 | 1050.35 | 4.23 | 0.40% | 1075.72 | 1050.35 | 25.38 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 737.62 | 744.61 | -6.99 | -0.94% | 750.58 | 737.62 | 12.96 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index HOOl | 1262.70 | 1281.46 | -18.75 | -1.46% | 1285.62 | 1262.70 | 22.92 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 918.03 | 905.22 | 12.81 | 1.41% | 918.03 | 905.22 | 12.81 | [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Strength and Weakness Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua commodity indices, including the present value, previous value, change, and ranking. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index is 0.505, with a change of 0.009517708 and a ranking of 0.833 [6]. 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Rise and Fall to the Index Rise and Fall - The report shows the average position volume, month-on-month increase, and position volume ratio of various futures varieties this week. For example, the position volume of soybean meal is 4,280,386 hands, with a month-on-month decrease of -4.72% and a position volume ratio of 11.22% [8]. 3.4 Weekly Data of Nanhua's Various Sector Indices - **Industrial Products Index NHII**: Closed at 3614.83 this week, down -0.44% from last week. The most influential varieties were alumina, soda ash, etc. [10]. - **Metal Index NHMI**: Closed at 6394.54 this week, up 0.46% from last week. The most influential varieties were iron ore, tin, etc. [10]. - **Energy and Chemical Index NHECI**: Closed at 1664.76 this week, down -1.11% from last week. The most influential varieties were crude oil, coke, etc. [10]. - **Agricultural Products Index NHAI**: Closed at 1096.43 this week, down -0.96% from last week. The most influential variety was palm oil [10]. - **Black Index NHFI**: Closed at 2533.25 this week, down -0.10% from last week. The most influential varieties were coke, rebar, etc. [12]. - **Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI**: Closed at 1700.10 this week, up 0.50% from last week. The most influential varieties were tin, indium, etc. [14].