南华期货废钢产业周报：自身基本面较好 2025-08-10 20:04:58 南华期货废钢产业周报 ----自身基本面较好 2025/08/10 严志妮 投资咨询证号：Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周报核心观点 供给：本周25家钢厂废钢到货量为48.4（-6）万吨，沙钢日均到货量为1.45（+0.2）。 需求：本周255家钢厂废钢日耗为55.18万吨（+0.4），其中主要是短流程钢厂废钢日耗有所增加，长流程钢 厂废钢日耗量跟随这周铁水产量一起小幅下滑。 加工基地库存：全国加工基地库存小幅上升，主要体现在华北、华南、华中、西南这四个地区的废钢基地库 存上升，以当前的基地库存/到货来看，仍处于季节性相对低位。 钢厂库存：本周由于废钢到货减少，钢厂日耗量增加，钢厂废钢库存以及库销比均呈现下滑，目前钢厂库销 比处于季节性相对低位，特别是短流程钢厂。 螺废价差与铁废价差（废钢性价比）：本周铁废价差小幅上升，螺废价差下滑，说明废钢较铁水性价比略有 回升，但是钢厂从利润角度来看，加废性价比下滑。 钢厂利润：本周长短流程钢厂利润均呈现下滑，目前长流程钢厂利润还有100多，短流程钢厂利润目 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Futures Settlement Prices and Weekly Changes**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE settled at 108.61 with a 0.15% weekly increase, T2512.CFE at 108.505 with a 0.07% increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures TF2509.CFE at 105.82 with a 0.09% increase, TF2512.CFE at 105.875 with a 0.09% increase; 2 - year Treasury bond futures TS2509.CFE at 102.37 with a 0.02% increase, TS2512.CFE at 102.436 with a 0.04% increase; 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE at 119.25 with a 0.13% increase, TL2512.CFE at 118.880 with a 0.05% increase [7] - **Spread Data**: The T2509 - T2512 inter - term spread was 0.105 with a weekly decline of 0.523; TF2509 - TF2512 was - 0.055 with a decline of 12.000; TS2509 - TS2512 was - 0.066 with an increase of 7.250. The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 300.870 with a decline of 0.088; 2TF - T was 103.030 with an increase of 0.020; TS - TF was 98.920 with a decline of 0.054 [7] - **Spot Bond Yields**: The 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.35% with a weekly decline of 1.99 BP; 2Y was 1.40% with a decline of 2.69 BP; 3Y was 1.42% with a decline of 2.86 BP; 5Y was 1.54% with a decline of 2.39 BP; 7Y was 1.65% with a decline of 1.67 BP; 10Y was 1.69% with a decline of 1.88 BP; 30Y was 1.96% with an increase of 0.90 BP. The 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.50% with an increase of 0.04 BP; 3Y was 1.63% with a decline of 0.99 BP; 5Y was 1.66% with a decline of 0.62 BP; 7Y was 1.79% with a decline of 0.01 BP; 10Y was 1.78% with an increase of 1.59 BP; 30Y was 2.05% with an increase of 0.16 BP [7] - **Funding Rates**: The DR001 inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.31% with a weekly decline of 0.23 BP; DR007 was 1.43% with an increase of 0.09 BP; DR014 was 1.47% with a decline of 6.13 BP. The SHIBOR1M rate was 1.53% with a decline of 2.34 BP; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a decline of 0.86 BP [7] 2. CPI and PPI Data - **CPI Data**: The CPI in July was 0.4%, up 0.5 pct compared to the previous period, and the CPI in February 2024 was 0.8%, up 0.4 pct compared to the previous period. There were also various historical CPI data comparisons [21] - **PPI Data**: The PPI had changes such as a 0.4 pct change to - 0.2%, a 1 pct change to - 0.2 pct, etc [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Nanhua Comprehensive Index dropped 9.19 points, a decline of -0.36%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and glass, with the crude oil variety index having a change of -6.56% and a contribution of -1.08%, and the glass variety index having a change of -4.06% and a contribution of -0.1% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 35.2 points, a decrease of -0.96%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and fuel oil, with the crude oil variety index contributing -1.14% and the fuel oil variety index contributing -0.14% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with lithium carbonate being the most influential variety, contributing 0.39% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index declined 36.18 points, a drop of -2.11%. Crude oil was the most influential variety, contributing -1.64% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose 7.81 points, an increase of 0.72%. The most influential variety was apples, contributing 0.22% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Data Review | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Comprehensive Index NHCI | 2523.12 | 2532.30 | -9.19 | -0.36% | 2536.97 | 2523.12 | 13.85 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1269.49 | 1233.23 | 36.26 | 2.94% | 1269.49 | 1233.23 | 36.26 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3644.95 | 3680.14 | -35.20 | -0.96% | 3680.14 | 3644.95 | 35.20 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6437.79 | 6362.56 | 75.24 | 1.18% | 6444.90 | 6362.56 | 82.35 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1677.73 | 1713.91 | -36.18 | -2.11% | 1713.91 | 1677.73 | 36.18 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 2596.44 | 2551.46 | 44.98 | 1.76% | 2606.85 | 2551.46 | 55.39 | | Black Index NHFI | 1098.55 | 1090.74 | 7.81 | 0.72% | 1098.55 | 1088.14 | 10.41 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1098.55 | 1090.74 | 7.81 | 0.72% | 1098.55 | 1088.14 | 10.41 | | Mini - Comprehensive Index NHCIMi | 1186.42 | 1201.10 | -14.69 | -1.22% | 1201.10 | 1186.42 | 14.69 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1066.74 | 1112.54 | -45.80 | -4.12% | 1112.54 | 1066.74 | 45.80 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 947.25 | 958.73 | -11.47 | -1.20% | 958.73 | 947.25 | 11.47 | | Coal - based Chemical Index NHCCI | 1042.65 | 1046.71 | -4.06 | -0.39% | 1050.96 | 1042.65 | 8.31 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1071.66 | 1043.56 | 28.10 | 2.69% | 1075.63 | 1043.56 | 32.07 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 764.49 | 769.05 | -4.57 | -0.59% | 773.03 | 764.49 | 8.54 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOI | 1256.32 | 1238.59 | 17.72 | 1.43% | 1256.32 | 1237.69 | 18.63 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 896.92 | 886.36 | 10.56 | 1.19% | 896.92 | 886.36 | 10.56 | [3] 3.2. Nanhua Variety Index Strength - Weakness Arbitrage Data - The ratio of the Precious Metals Index to the Comprehensive Index increased from 0.487 to 0.503, with a change of 0.016145864 and a ranking of 0.824 [5]. - The ratio of the Industrial Products Index to the Comprehensive Index decreased from 1.453 to 1.445, with a change of -0.008658783 and a ranking of 0.214 [5]. - The ratio of the Metal Index to the Industrial Products Index increased from 1.729 to 1.766, with a change of 0.037335469 and a ranking of 0.890 [5]. - The ratio of the Energy and Chemical Index to the Industrial Products Index decreased from 0.466 to 0.460, with a change of -0.00542907 and a ranking of 0.005 [5]. - The ratio of the Non - ferrous Metals Index to the Industrial Products Index increased from 0.455 to 0.466, with a change of 0.010339471 and a ranking of 0.961 [5]. - The ratio of the Black Index to the Industrial Index increased from 0.693 to 0.712, with a change of 0.019035279 and a ranking of 0.205 [5]. - The ratio of the Agricultural Products Index to the Comprehensive Index increased from 0.431 to 0.435, with a change of 0.004663049 and a ranking of 0.129 [5]. [5] 3.3. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Change Rate to the Index Change Rate - For example, the average weekly position of soybean meal was 4786224 hands, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56%, a position volume ratio of 12.33%, and a contribution to the index change rate of -1.18% [7]. 3.4. Contribution of Key Varieties to Each Index - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: The most influential varieties were crude oil and fuel oil, with crude oil contributing -1.14% and fuel oil contributing -0.14% [1][2]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: The most influential variety was lithium carbonate, contributing 0.39% [1][2]. - **Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index**: Crude oil was the most influential variety, contributing -1.64% [1][2]. - **Nanhua Agricultural Products Index**: Apples were the most influential variety, contributing 0.22% [2]. [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The view is to hold long positions. In the short term, it is advisable to be optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened higher and then declined in the morning, turned negative during the session, fluctuated weakly in the afternoon, and rebounded to close in positive territory at the end of the session, with all contracts except TL closing up. Liquidity improved further, with 126 billion yuan in open - market operations maturing and a net withdrawal of 400 million yuan after central bank hedging. After the announcement of the outright repurchase, market sentiment was boosted, and the funding rate dropped further, with the overnight anonymous rate falling below 1.3% to 1.25% for the first time recently [1]. 3.2 News and Market Analysis - The Supreme People's Court issued a guiding opinion on implementing the Private Economy Promotion Law to provide legal protection for the development of the private economy [2]. - There were two key points in the bond market throughout the day. First, liquidity improved further, including the large - scale net injection of outright repurchase and the rumor of a 5 - basis - point cut in the outright repurchase rate, and the overnight anonymous rate in the inter - bank market dropped below 1.3%. Second, in the afternoon's primary market, the newly issued local bonds reflected the impact of the VAT adjustment. The issuance rates of two 10 - year general bonds in Hebei were 1.87%, with an over - subscription ratio of about 20 times. The spread with a similar bond was about 5bp, lower than the previously estimated 10bp, indicating that investors and the Ministry of Finance shared the tax impact and market demand was good, which was conducive to short - term sentiment repair [2]. 3.3 Data Overview | Contract | Opening Price | Closing Price | Change | Lowest Price | Contract Position (Lots) | Opening Position | Closing Position | Change in Position | Trading Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.37 | 102.37 | 0 | 102.352 | | 106938 | 107982 | - 1044 | 35510 | | TF2509 | 105.82 | 105.815 | 0.005 | 105.73 | | 179748 | 183677 | - 3929 | 189483 | | T2509 | 108.61 | 108.61 | 0 | 108.45 | | 237318 | 235701 | 1617 | 230356 | | TL2509 | 119.25 | 119.34 | - 0.09 | 119.09 | | 152566 | 152143 | 423 | 160646 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0187 | 0.0113 | 0.0074 | 0.0139 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 26388 | 31989 | - 5601 | 30691 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0463 | 0.0194 | 0.0269 | 0.044 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 48873 | 50196 | - 1323 | 52177 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0524 | 0.0444 | 0.008 | 0.1371 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 59254 | 57041 | 2213 | 64489 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.265 | 0.2678 | - 0.0028 | 0.1371 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 88744 | 99214 | - 10470 | 118932 | | DR001 | 1.3151 | 1.3153 | - 0.0002 | - 0.0806 | DR001 Trading Volume (Billion Yuan) | 28839.0677 | 28816.6772 | 22.3905 | 16228.0355 | | DR007 | 1.4515 | 1.4557 | - 0.0042 | - 0.1027 | DR007 Trading Volume (Billion Yuan) | 730.6164 | 825.6957 | - 95.0793 | 472.1132 | | DR014 | 1.4939 | 1.4866 | 0.0073 | - 0.0662 | DR014 Trading Volume (Billion Yuan) | 119.5696 | 155.5992 | - 36.0296 | 82.66 | [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current price of logs is within a reasonable valuation range. Although the price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost, from a trading perspective, the upward risk - return ratio is better than the downward one [3]. - The data of the 07 contract's delivery situation provides important references for future delivery distribution, including the quantity of delivery items, the proportion of the lowest - cost warehouse receipts, and the approximate range of the average warehouse - receipt cost [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Log Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2]. - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 to prevent inventory losses [2]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction - The 09 contract is three weeks away from delivery. The 07 contract had a total of 1281 hands delivered, with 63% by truck - board delivery (20% in Lanshan, 55% in Taicang, 24% in Chongqing) and 37% by warehouse - receipt delivery (82% in Lanshan, 18% in Taicang, 0% in Chongqing) [3]. - The spot price and the far - end CFR quote have increased, indicating a rise in delivery costs [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Importers are willing to support prices due to continuous import losses, import costs are rising, the overall sentiment of commodities is improving, and there is an impact from capital [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The peak season is not prosperous, and the shipping volume from foreign suppliers is continuously increasing [6]. Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on August 8, 2025, and calculates the converted basis [4][7]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation - pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 1, 2025, the total port inventory in China was 3.17 million m³, unchanged from the previous period but a 4.5% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million m³, an increase of 20,000 m³ from the previous period and a 10.5% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 0.96 million m³, a decrease of 56,400 m³ from the previous period but an 11.6% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Demand**: As of August 1, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 64,200 m³, an increase of 100 m³ from the previous period and a 33.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 35,700 m³, an increase of 1,800 m³ from the previous period and a 55.9% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,200 m³, a decrease of 1,400 m³ from the previous period but a 19.0% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Profit**: As of August 8, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was - 96 yuan/m³, a decrease of 12 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The import profit of spruce was - 87 yuan/m³, an increase of 19 yuan/m³ from the previous period [8]. - **Outer - Market Quote**: The CFR quote on August 8, 2025, was 116 US dollars/JASm³, an increase of 2 US dollars from the previous period but a 1.7% decrease year - on - year [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index rebounded rapidly in the week of August 4 - 7, 2025, with a 9.33% week - on - week increase and a 7.7% year - on - year increase. The increase was more significant compared to the previous period, and it turned from a year - on - year decline to an increase [2]. - As of August 1, the crude oil shipping volume showed a pattern of "two increases and two decreases" among major countries. The shipping volumes of the US and Saudi Arabia increased by 20.37% and 28.73% respectively, while those of Russia and the UAE decreased by 4.83% and 4.27% respectively [2][12]. - As of August 6, the traffic volume of crude oil vessels in the Red Sea and Aden Gulf regions increased, which increased the demand for oil tankers and was significantly positive for the BDTI freight rate index [2]. 3. Summary by Section BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of August 7, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1007 points, with a 9.33% week - on - week increase and a 7.7% year - on - year increase. From a seasonal perspective, the freight rate increased significantly in that week [2][3]. Oil Tanker Shipping Distance - In the 29th week of 2025 (as of July 25), except for the Suez - max tankers whose shipping distance decreased by 23.26% week - on - week, the shipping distances of VLCC and Aframax tankers increased by 3.49% and 22.81% respectively week - on - week. Only the Aframax tankers had a significantly longer shipping distance compared to the same period last year [5]. - From August 2 - 6, 2025, the total traffic volume of oil tankers in the Red Sea increased. The average daily traffic volume was 791 vessels, 12 more than the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers decreased by 10, while the number of product tankers increased by 25. In the Red Sea, the number of VLCCs increased by 3, Suez - max tankers decreased by 20, and Aframax tankers increased by 28. - In the Aden Gulf, the traffic volume of oil tankers increased significantly, reaching 143 vessels, 25 more than the previous week. The number of crude oil tankers increased by 2, and product tankers increased by 22. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCCs increased by 2, Suez - max tankers increased by 1, and Aframax tankers increased by 9 [7]. Oil Tanker Capacity - As of August 1, 2025, 9423 oil tankers were scrapped, 2 more than the previous week and 83 more than the same period last year; the number of effective vessels was 18307, 15 more than the previous week and 449 more than the same period last year; the number of vessel deliveries was 196, unchanged from the previous week and 75 more than the same period last year; the number of vessel orders was 1356, 3 less than the previous week and 148 more than the same period last year; the number of vessels under construction was 212, 8 less than the previous week and 73 more than the same period last year [9]. - As of August 2, except for the Suez - max tankers whose port capacity increased by 141 vessels week - on - week, the port capacities of other tanker types decreased. The number of VLCCs at ports decreased by 223 to 2193, and the number of Aframax tankers decreased by 615 to 2656 [9]. Crude Oil Shipping Data Tracking - As of August 1, 2025, the crude oil shipping volumes of the US and Saudi Arabia increased week - on - week, while those of Russia and the UAE decreased. The US crude oil weekly shipping volume increased by 20.37%, Russia's decreased by 4.83%, Saudi Arabia's increased by 28.73%, and the UAE's decreased by 4.27% [12]. - In terms of shipping tanker types: - For the US, except for a 1.82% decrease in the demand for VLCCs, the demands for Aframax and Suez - max tankers increased by 77.26% and 17.69% respectively [12]. - For Russia, the demand for Aframax tankers decreased by 12.78%, while the demand for Suez - max tankers increased by 0.05% [12]. - For Saudi Arabia, the demands for VLCCs and Aframax tankers increased by 25.6% and 54.23% respectively, and the demand for Suez - max tankers increased by 50% [12]. - For the UAE, the demands for VLCCs and Aframax tankers decreased by 16.46% and 52.25% respectively, while the demand for Suez - max tankers increased by 129.79% [12][13]. - Seasonal analysis: - For the US, the demand for Suez - max tankers was the strongest, higher than the four - year average [15]. - For Russia, the demand for Suez - max tankers was extremely strong, while the demand for Aframax tankers was lower than in previous years [18]. - For Saudi Arabia, the demands for all three types of tankers increased, with the most significant increase in the demand for Aframax tankers [20]. - For the UAE, the demand for Suez - max tankers was the strongest [25]. - The total shipping volume of other countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased significantly, mainly due to a significant increase in Nigeria's shipping volume [28]. Crude Oil Arrivals - In the week, the crude oil arrivals in China, India, and the Netherlands all increased week - on - week. From a seasonal perspective, India's increase in crude oil arrivals was the smallest [28].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月8日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 信息平淡下的缩量震荡 市场回顾 今日股指震荡为主，四大规模指数均小幅下降。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落1152.63亿元。期指方面，各 品种均缩量，IC主力小幅上涨，其余期指均回落，多头情绪回落。 重要资讯 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.24 | -0.44 | 0.01 | -0.20 | | 成交量（万手） | 7.5164 | 3.9458 | 6.9645 | 15.7592 | | 成交量环比（万手） | -1.8105 | -0.9004 | -1.8301 | -3.7903 | | 持仓量（万手） | 25.0531 | 8.9786 | 21.4682 | 33.4195 | | 持仓量环比（万手） | -0.9906 | -0.3451 | -0.8103 | -1.1229 | source： wind,南华研究 股指日报现货市场观察 | 名称 | 数值 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Tin prices showed a slight increase on Thursday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. If the delay persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [3] Key Points by Category 1. Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,940 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - On the tin futures market, the prices of Shanghai Tin Main, Shanghai Tin Continuous 1, and Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 remained unchanged at 267,940 yuan/ton, 267,940 yuan/ton, and 268,250 yuan/ton respectively. The price of LME Tin 3M was 33,835 US dollars/ton, up 605 US dollars or 1.82%. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.02, unchanged [7] 2. Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell call options (SN2509C275000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to long the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell put options (SN2509P245000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] 3. Factors Affecting Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [8] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and transition to the contraction cycle [5][6] 4. Spot and Inventory Data Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots was 267,200 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 0.64%. The 1 tin premium was 400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 42.86%. The prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates were 255,200 yuan/ton and 259,200 yuan/ton respectively, both up 1,700 yuan [13] Inventory Data (Daily) - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,332 tons, down 26 tons or 0.35%. Among them, the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong was 4,919 tons, up 14 tons or 0.29%, and in Shanghai was 1,542 tons, down 40 tons or 2.53%. The total LME tin inventory was 1,755 tons, down 120 tons or 6.4% [20] 5. Import and Processing Data - The tin import profit and loss was - 15,412.62 yuan/ton, up 9.49%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore were 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [21]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Copper prices have been mainly fluctuating recently. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized. In the short term, it's hard to see LME copper prices continuously higher than COMEX copper prices. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The sharp decline led by COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets, and investors should be wary of the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,460 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - When finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it's recommended to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - When raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it's recommended to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries have reached an agreement on tariff policies - The US dollar index has declined due to employment data - There is obvious support at the lower level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand has decreased due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][6] Copper Market Data Futures Market - Shanghai Copper main contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan, 0.23% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract: 78,440 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - LME 3M copper: 9,670.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars, - 0.04% daily change - Shanghai - London ratio: 8.15, unchanged, 0% daily change [6] Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 78,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, 0.19% daily change - Shanghai Wumaomao: 78,465 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan, 0.17% daily change - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 78,330 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan, 0.18% daily change - Yangtze Non - ferrous: 78,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, 0.13% daily change [7] Refined - Scrap Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan, - 20.82% daily change - Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan, - 0.19% daily change - Price advantage (tax - included): - 822.77 yuan/ton, down 170.81 yuan, 26.2% daily change [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts: total 20,145 tons, down 201 tons, - 0.99% daily change - LME copper inventory: total 156,000 tons, down 125 tons, - 0.08% daily change - COMEX copper inventory: total 263,296 tons, up 5,381 tons, 2.09% weekly change [13][15][18] Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan, - 45.88% daily change - Copper concentrate TC: - 41 US dollars/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change [19]

南华贵金属日报:降息预期回升 贵金属延续走高 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月8日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场偏强运行，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约785.02元/克，+0.1%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9258元/千克，+1.07%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。周四晚间公布的美周度初请失业金人数高于预期，反映就业市场降温，而美7月纽约联储1Y通胀 预期走升。消息面，英国央行周四宣布降息25基点至4%，符合市场预期，但九位货币政策委员会成员中四人 反对降息，亦出现罕见"双轮投票"，显示出央行内部在通胀压力下的政策分歧正在加剧。中国央行则连续 第9个月增持黄金1.86吨至2300.41多。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340，阻力3400，3450。伦敦银 支撑37.6，38，阻力38.5。操作上仍维持回调做多 ...