Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: In July, China's export performance was strong, with non-US countries supporting exports and electromechanical products showing competitive advantages. However, future export growth is expected to decline gradually, and the decision - makers' policies are expected to improve the price index [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar is weak, and non - US currencies are generally strong. The short - term exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB is expected to be supported in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a likely anchor at 7.20 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The domestic economic data did not exceed market expectations, and the short - term market is expected to continue the trend of shrinking volume and oscillation. Wait for the release of domestic financial data and US inflation data [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The liquidity has improved, and the primary market situation is better than expected. It is recommended to hold long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The SCFI European line continues to decline. The futures price is expected to be in a volatile or slightly declining trend in the short - to - medium term [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and casting aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [13][14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium resources is expected to tighten, and investors need to be cautious about holding positions [17]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [21]. - **Black Metals**: Steel products are expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward state in the short term, and iron ore is in a narrow - range oscillation. Coal and coke are not pessimistic in the medium - to - long term, and ferroalloys are recommended to be lightly bought on dips [22][24][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is at risk of decline, LPG remains in a loose situation, PTA - PX is recommended to expand the processing fee, ethylene glycol is recommended to be bought on dips, methanol 09 is weak, PP and PE are in an oscillatory state, PVC is to be short - allocated, pure benzene and styrene have weak short - term unilateral drives, fuel oil is weak, low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, asphalt is in a weak oscillation, urea is in a weak oscillation, and glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a game between reality and expectation [30][32][37][40][42][43][46][48][50] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - **Domestic**: In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The export was strong, and the decision - makers introduced a series of livelihood policies [1][2]. - **Overseas**: The US non - farm payrolls data was revised downwards, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. There were various international events such as potential US - Russia cease - fire agreements and tariff policies [1] RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated. The US dollar index was weak, and non - US currencies were strong [2][3] - **Influencing Factors**: The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the US domestic economic situation, China's export performance, and the central bank's guidance [3][4] Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index oscillated, and the trading volume decreased. The futures index volume decreased, and the bullish sentiment declined [5] - **Influencing Factors**: Domestic economic data, policy support, and the upcoming release of financial and inflation data [5] Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: Treasury futures opened high and closed low, then rebounded. The liquidity improved, and the primary market situation was better than expected [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Liquidity improvement, the issuance of local bonds, and the impact of VAT adjustment [6] Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The container shipping index (European line) futures oscillated, and the SCFI European line continued to decline [7][8] - **Influencing Factors**: Shipping company performance, geopolitical risks, and shipping company price adjustments [8] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, affected by tariff policies and Fed news. Fund positions and inventory changed [9][10][11] - **Influencing Factors**: US tariff policies, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and China's gold reserve increase [9][10] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Aluminum**: The price oscillated, affected by inventory and the approaching peak season [13] - **Alumina**: The supply was excessive, the price was under pressure, and the cost was the support [14] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand were good, and the price followed the aluminum price [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the fundamentals provided some support [16] - **Influencing Factors**: Supply and demand of nickel ore, nickel iron, and stainless steel, and macro - level factors such as tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The futures price rose, and the inventory increased [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Mine - end news, production and demand of the lithium battery industry chain, and the suspension of mining operations [16][17] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The prices oscillated, and the production and demand of the industry changed [17][18][19] - **Influencing Factors**: Production capacity changes, market demand, and the adjustment of registered brands [18][19][20] Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were affected by production restrictions and market demand [22] - **Iron Ore**: The price oscillated in a narrow range, and the supply and demand were affected by coal prices and steel demand [22][23][24] - **Coal and Coke**: The prices oscillated strongly, and the supply and demand were affected by production inspections, imports, and downstream demand [24][25] - **Ferroalloys**: The prices fluctuated with coal prices, and the supply and demand were affected by steel production and raw material supply [26][27][28] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price declined, and the supply and demand were affected by seasonal factors and geopolitical events [28][29][30] - **LPG**: The price was under pressure, and the supply was loose while the demand was slightly improved [31][32] - **PTA - PX**: The price followed the cost, and there was a supply - demand gap in August [32][33] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a weak balance [36] - **Methanol**: The 09 contract was weak, and the port inventory increased [37][38] - **PP and PE**: The prices oscillated, and the supply and demand were in a state of change [39][40][42] - **PVC**: The price was high - valued and high - inventory, and it was recommended to be short - allocated [43] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral drive was weak, and the supply and demand situation was different [43][44][46] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The prices were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [46] - **Asphalt**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by weather and funds [47][48] - **Urea**: The price was in a weak oscillation, and the supply and demand were affected by export and agricultural demand [49][50] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices were in a game between reality and expectation, and the supply and demand were different [50][51][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot index of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index for European routes (SCFIS) continued to decline this week, and the decline in the US West route widened significantly. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to fall. The main influencing factors for the futures price this week were the spot cabin quotes on European routes and route adjustments. Looking ahead, one can continue to monitor the changes in spot cabin quotes on European routes by shipping companies and the fundamentals of the European route market. Given that the current spot cabin quotes on European routes and the SCFIS European route are both falling, but considering that the futures price is at a relatively short - term low, it is more likely that the decline in the futures price will converge or the price will remain volatile [1]. - Traders are advised to temporarily observe in the spot - futures (basis) strategy and remain on the sidelines in the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy - Spot - futures (basis) strategy: Traders should temporarily keep observing [2]. - Arbitrage (inter - period) strategy: Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [2]. 2. Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded. Among them, the closing price of EC2510 rebounded by 0.84% from the previous week, closing at 1436.0 points, and the settlement price rebounded by 1.11%, closing at 1448.0 points. The main influencing factors this week were the spot cabin quotes on European routes and route adjustments [3]. 3. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of August 4, the SCFIS European route, the futures underlying index, continued to decline, with a month - on - month decline of 0.81% (previous value was - 3.50%), and the decline in the US West route widened, with a month - on - month decline of 11.99% (previous value was - 1.37%). As of August 8, the CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to fall. In terms of routes, the decline in North American routes widened. The SCFI US West route decreased by 9.80% month - on - month ( - 2.23% the previous week), the SCFI US East route decreased by 10.68% month - on - month ( - 7.46% the previous week), and the SCFI European route also saw an expanded decline, decreasing by 4.39% month - on - month ( - 1.87% the previous week) [8]. 4. Spot Information - Demand Side - Not summarized as specific demand - side data analysis is not provided in a concise form in the text. 5. Spot Information - Supply Side - As of August 8, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 2.0%; the idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 42,946 TEU, accounting for 0.9% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships between 12,000 and 16,999 TEU was 98,873 TEU, accounting for 1.3% of this type of ships. The congestion index of Shanghai Port increased by 102.2 thousand TEU from last week, reaching 657.4 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port increased by 25.5 thousand TEU, reaching 221.8 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port increased by 24.1 thousand TEU, reaching 98.2 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 6.0 thousand TEU, reaching 103.0 thousand TEU [27][30]. 6. Spread Analysis - The current SCFIS European route continued to decline, but the month - on - month decline slightly converged to 0.81%, closing at 2297.86 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1421.8 points on Monday, and the basis narrowed slightly compared to last week. Traders are advised to temporarily observe. The inter - period contract spread combinations of the container shipping European route this week: the spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 635.0 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 311.0 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 324.0 points. Traders can temporarily remain on the sidelines [35][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The anti-involution theme has cooled down from its initial fervor, with volatility decreasing. The market outlook is short-term bearish and long-term bullish. The anti-involution theme is a long-term concept, and it's unlikely for prices to return to the levels of mid-June. A 5% increase in price can be considered as a bottom-line support. The recent market adjustment is seen as a technical one driven by delivery and exchange position limits [3][4]. - In terms of specific sectors and varieties, the feed and black sectors are bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The anti-involution theme has gradually calmed down after emotional release and exchange position limits. Near-month contracts face delivery pressure, and high-inventory varieties like glass and soda ash still have hedging needs. The 09 contract's position transfer affects the 2601 contract's price [4]. - The adjustment in the past week was mainly due to two factors: the delivery logic of high-inventory varieties and the adjustment caused by capital position transfer under exchange position limits. Minor market rumors may cause disturbances but won't affect the long-term anti-involution trend [3][5]. 2. Variety Adjustment - Different varieties have different adjustment amplitudes, which are related to their current inventory levels. For example, high-inventory glass and soda ash have seen the 2509 contract dragging down far-month contracts, with the 9-1 spread declining and far-month contracts showing resistive declines [5]. 3. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital outflow is 21.902 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals outflow 2.429 billion yuan, non-ferrous metals 5.912 billion yuan, black metals 2.681 billion yuan, energy 0.051 billion yuan, chemicals 2.061 billion yuan, feed and breeding 0.52 billion yuan, and soft commodities 1.663 billion yuan. The feed and oil sector has an inflow of 0.646 billion yuan [8]. - **Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data**: Provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non-ferrous varieties [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: Presents price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various energy and chemical varieties [10]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: Offers price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various agricultural products [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, Zhengzhou cotton entered a narrow - range oscillation. The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but the downstream sales have not recovered, resulting in insufficient driving force for cotton prices. In the short term, it may maintain an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking and the adjustment of the next week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of July 31, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.1%, 7.3 percentage points higher year - on - year and 8.3 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [1]. - **Import**: In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month - on - month and 130,000 tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month and flat year - on - year. The cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% month - on - month and 24.37% year - on - year [1]. - **Demand**: In June, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 127.54 billion yuan, an increase of 4.08% month - on - month and 3.10% year - on - year. In July, the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.766 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month and 0.06% year - on - year [1]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 644,600 tons from the end of June. Among them, the commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of June [1]. International Market - **US Supply**: As of August 3, the cotton budding rate in the US was 87%, 3 percentage points behind year - on - year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points behind year - on - year and 3 percentage points behind the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 55%, flat month - on - month and 10 percentage points higher year - on - year [1][2]. - **US Demand**: From July 25 - 31, the net signing of US 24/25 - year - old upland cotton was - 3,901 tons, and the shipment of upland cotton was 41,345 tons. There was no signing of Pima cotton, and the shipment of Pima cotton was 2,041 tons. 135,715 tons of cotton were carried over to the 25/26 season, with a net signing of 24,789 tons of 25/26 - year - old upland cotton and 1,202 tons of Pima cotton. The shipment for the 25/26 season has not started [2]. - **Southeast Asia Supply**: As of August 1, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.6 million hectares, a decrease of about 1.9% year - on - year [2]. - **Southeast Asia Demand**: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% month - on - month and 5.3% year - on - year. In June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% month - on - month and 6.31% year - on - year. India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% month - on - month and an increase of 1.23% year - on - year. Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% month - on - month and an increase of 7.59% year - on - year [2]. Market Trends and Forecast - **Domestic**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing fast with good overall growth, but pest and disease problems in some cotton fields have intensified. The downstream spinning mills' profits are poor, with the overall load further declining. The fabric mill load has increased slightly, with a slight increase in sample - making orders, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products are slightly accumulating. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream restocking willingness is expected to improve marginally [4]. - **International**: As of August 2, Brazil's national cotton picking progress was about 29.7%, relatively slow. In India, the national cotton sowing progress is still slower than last year, and as of August 5, the cumulative rainfall of the southwest monsoon was 508mm, 3.4% higher than the annual average. Attention should be paid to the impact of heavy rainfall on India's new cotton area [4].

Report Title - "South China Crude Oil Market Weekly Report - Oil Prices Hit New Low Since July, Awaiting New Drivers" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fell continuously, hitting a new low since July. The trading logic revolved around the weak fundamentals and the decline of risk premium. The fundamentals were mixed. Bullish factors included the decline in US crude oil and refined oil inventories according to EIA weekly data, Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices, and Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports starting from August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50%. Bearish factors were the high possibility of a summit between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin and the increasing likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market reacted weakly to bullish factors, possibly due to the weakening support of peak - season demand. As the seasonal demand weakened, the risk of supply surplus increased, limiting the upside potential of oil prices and increasing the downside risk. There was a lack of substantial positive news in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether US sanctions against Russia would be implemented [2] Market Trends - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of light crude oil for September. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to Asia in September was at a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up from a $2.20 premium in August. The OSP for the US was at a $4.2 - per - barrel premium, and for Northwest Europe, it was at a $3.35 - per - barrel premium [4] - The discount on Russian crude oil export prices widened. Due to the pressure from the US and the EU on Russian oil buyers, the demand was hit, and the price of Russia's main oil exports to India had a discount. State - owned Indian refineries were considering suspending imports of Russian oil, while private enterprises were still buying but at a slower pace. The price of crude oil in the Ural region was more than $5 per barrel cheaper than the North Sea crude oil price index, compared with almost zero difference two weeks ago [4] - Indian companies continued to import Russian oil, but the quantity might decline. An industry insider said that Indian companies would continue to import Russian oil as long as the deals were commercially beneficial [4] EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending August 1, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 0.591 million barrels and a previous increase of 7.698 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0235 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.0453 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 0.565 million barrels. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.962 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.174 million barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 0.62 million barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day. Crude oil production decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, higher than the expected 95.2% and the previous 95.4% [6] CME Volume and Open Interest Data - The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures was 851,451 contracts, a decrease of 96,463 contracts from the previous trading day. The open interest was 2,045,252 contracts, an increase of 2,569 contracts. The trading volume of Brent crude oil futures was 170,087 contracts, a decrease of 25,973 contracts, and the open interest was 186,677 contracts, an increase of 493 contracts. The trading volume of natural gas futures was 464,152 contracts, an increase of 72,474 contracts, and the open interest was 1,589,665 contracts, a decrease of 16,391 contracts [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel and stainless - steel market showed a mainly oscillating trend this week. The influence of the macro - level has weakened, and the cost support of ferronickel is prominent. The support from nickel ore fundamentals has loosened to some extent. In the new energy sector, the prices are relatively firm. It is expected that nickel will oscillate in the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan, and stainless steel will oscillate in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan [2][4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Disk Review - The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly. It closed at 120,630 yuan/ton on August 4th, and finally closed at 121,180 yuan/ton after oscillating during the week. The main contract of stainless steel had a similar trend, closing at 12,925 yuan/ton on August 4th and 12,985 yuan/ton at the end of the week [2]. 3.2 Industrial Performance - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel maintained a premium at 123,050 yuan/ton with a premium of 2,250 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,440 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from MHP adjusted to - 1.5%. The average ex - factory price of 304/2B cut - edge stainless steel was 13,050 yuan/ton, and the profit margin of 304 stainless steel cold - rolling dropped to around - 3.07%. The ex - factory price of 8% - 12% high - nickel pig iron adjusted to 918.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure nickel on the SHFE was 25,750 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,212 tons. The social inventory of stainless steel was 954,000 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory was 33,415 tons [3]. 3.3 Core Logic - **Macro and News**: The influence of the macro - level has faded, and the short - term supply - demand logic of fundamentals dominates. Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist, and the US dollar index and non - farm payrolls data affect the market. There is an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in September [4]. - **Supply - Side**: In the Philippines, the main mining areas are in the seasonal high - production period, with stable production and shipping. In Indonesia, the first - phase nickel ore benchmark price in August has a slight upward shift, and the premium remains at 24. The benchmark prices of downstream products are differentiated [4]. - **New Energy**: In the long - term, the development of solid - state batteries in the new energy sector meets expectations and is moderately bullish. In the short - term, prices are firm, and nickel salt factories have a certain price - holding sentiment [4]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel has been strongly correcting this week, approaching the 122,000 - yuan level at the beginning of the year. The supply side has a strong willingness to hold prices, and traders generally expect prices to rise and replenish stocks in advance, while downstream steel mills are still waiting and watching [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated strongly this week, and the inventory has decreased in recent weeks. The spot market has tried to increase prices, but the acceptance of high - price resources is limited, and the trading volume has not improved significantly. Some steel mills may increase production in August, and the situation of strong supply and weak demand continues [4]. 3.4 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Weekly**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 37.88%, and the open interest decreased by 17.3% [5][6]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Weekly**: The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,985 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.46% week - on - week. The trading volume decreased by 29.10%, and the open interest decreased by 18.62% [7]. - **Nickel Spot Price**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel all decreased by 200 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 0.16% [8]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased by 1,086 tons to 40,572 tons, the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,020 tons to 212,232 tons, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 954 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory increased by 182 tons to 33,415 tons [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene glycol (MEG) prices are expected to fluctuate within a range as the supply - demand balance remains stable with no obvious drivers. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the entry timing should focus on commodity sentiment. For bottle chips, the absolute price fluctuates with the cost - end, and the processing fee on the disk should be operated within a range [3][4]. - For PX - TA, the near - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, mainly following cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic games. It is advisable to expand the PTA processing fee at low prices as the PX profit has recovered from a low level while the TA processing fee continues to decline [6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs MEG - **Inventory**: The East China port inventory decreased to 51.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 2 tons [3]. - **Device**: Some domestic and overseas devices have undergone maintenance, startup, and load - adjustment operations. The total load has dropped to 68.4% (- 0.6%), with coal - based MEG load rising to 75.14% (+ 0.14%) [3]. - **Profit**: The raw material cost changes have led to a significant compression of coal - based MEG profits, and the EO - 1.3EG ratio has strengthened slightly and remained at a low level [3]. - **Demand**: The load of polyester products has been slightly adjusted, but downstream demand is still weak. The subsequent orders are expected to be released in the peak season, and the load of some products is expected to increase [4]. PX - TA - **PX**: Some PX devices have increased their loads, and the supply is expected to increase in August. The PX profit has been significantly repaired [6]. - **PTA**: PTA devices have reduced their loads and carried out maintenance, and the processing fee has continued to decline. The social inventory has slightly increased [7]. - **Demand**: Similar to MEG, the load of polyester products has been slightly adjusted, downstream demand is weak, and subsequent orders are expected to be released in the peak season [7]. Polyester - **Price and Profit**: The prices of polyester products have generally declined, and the profits of some products have changed. The processing fee of bottle chips has been repaired [13]. - **Load and Production**: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 88.8% (+ 0.7%), and the production of some products has changed [13]. - **Inventory and Sales**: The inventory of some polyester products has increased, and the sales volume has decreased [13]. Device Information - **MEG Device**: Multiple domestic and overseas MEG devices are in various states such as maintenance, startup, and shutdown [19]. - **PX Device**: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance or shutdown, and some are expected to restart soon [21]. - **PTA Device**: Some PTA devices are in the process of maintenance, startup, and load - adjustment [22]. Production and Supply Plan - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: There are production and supply plans for different periods from 2024 to 2027, with expected increases in production capacity [23]. - **Polyester**: There are also production plans for different polyester products in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 485 tons [24]. Market Data Charts - **PX**: Multiple charts show the price, inventory, load, and other data of PX, reflecting its market trends and seasonal characteristics [25][28][30][32]. - **PTA**: Various charts display the price, inventory, load, and other data of PTA, showing its market trends and seasonal patterns [74][77][79]. - **Polyester**: Charts present the price, load, production, sales, inventory, and other data of polyester products, reflecting the market situation and seasonal characteristics [107][108][110][113][115]. - **MEG**: Charts show the price, profit, load, inventory, and other data of MEG, demonstrating its market trends and seasonal features [168][169][171].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand. However, in the long - term, the real estate market is persistently sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automotive sectors for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained. With the gradual recovery of Australian ore shipments, the supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position after a callback [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Market - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: In the main production areas, the price of 72 - grade silicon ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is 5550 yuan/ton (- 50), and in Ningxia is 5500 yuan/ton (- 150). In trading areas, the price in Hebei and Tianjin is 5900 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the northern production area (Inner Mongolia), the market price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese is 5800 yuan/ton (+ 80), in the southern production area (Guangxi) is 5870 yuan/ton (+ 70), and in the trading area (Jiangsu) is 6000 yuan/ton (+ 50) [2]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: In Inner Mongolia, the profit is - 49 yuan/ton (- 134); in Ningxia, the profit is 48 yuan/ton (- 234) [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the northern region, the profit is - 98.14 yuan/ton (+ 70.51); in the southern region, the profit is - 425.86 yuan/ton (+ 85.56) [2]. 3.3 Supply - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The weekly output is 10.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5% [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The weekly output is 19.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [2]. 3.4 Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high hot metal production supports the demand for silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese. However, the inventory build - up of five major steel products limits the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space for silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese is limited. In June, the production of magnesium metal was 8.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. In the long - term, due to the sluggish real estate market, the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for five major steel products of silicon ferrosilicon is 2.03 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%; the demand for five major steel products of silicon manganese is 12.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25% [3]. 3.5 Inventory - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The enterprise inventory this week is 7.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 9.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%; the total inventory is 17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The enterprise inventory is 16.15 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%; the total inventory is 54.15 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1% [3]. 3.6 Data Overview - **Silicon Ferrosilicon Daily Data**: It includes data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse - receipt inventory from August 1st to August 8th, 2025, showing different daily and weekly changes [6]. - **Silicon Manganese Daily Data**: It includes data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, manganese ore prices, and warehouse - receipt inventory from August 1st to August 8th, 2025, showing different daily and weekly changes [7]. - **Ferroalloy Weekly Data**: It includes data such as production, operating rate, daily average hot metal production, and inventory of five major steel products, with week - on - week and year - on - year comparisons from August 1st to August 8th, 2025 [8].

南华铜周报 2025年8月8日 铜：震荡偏强，底部抬升 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 点评 铜：震荡偏强，底部抬升 【盘面回顾】沪铜主力期货合约在周中小幅冲高后回落，报收在7.84万元每吨附近，上海有色现货升水120元 每吨。沪铜库存小幅回升至8.2万元；LME库存回升至15.5万吨；COMEX库存继续上涨至26.4万吨，上涨速 度降低。进阶数据方面，铜现货进口亏损缩窄；铜铝比缩稳定在3.79；精废价差小幅回落至784元每吨，小幅 偏低。 【产业表现】智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）最大铜矿El Teniente因7月31日隧道坍塌事故导致6名矿工遇难， 地下作业全面暂停。随着库存矿石耗尽，包括Caletones冶炼厂在内的地面设施被迫进入维护状态，5000名工 人转至地面检查设备。此次事故预计每月减少3万吨铜产量，相当于Codelco四分之一的产能，全球电线、电 子和建筑用铜供应链将受波及。 【核心逻辑】铜价在周中小幅冲高后回落，基本符合预期。智利El Teniente铜矿的矿难事故对于铜价的影响 自事故发生起到现在存在波折 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The tin price showed a slight increase during the week and is expected to mainly fluctuate in the future. The price resilience reflects the characteristics of relatively high supply concentration and relatively scattered downstream demand in the tin market. The repeated delay of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported the tin price and may have a continuous impact. The expected weekly operating range is between 262,000 - 269,000 yuan per ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - The Shanghai tin main futures contract slightly increased during the week, closing at 267,000 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of 400 yuan per ton on the Shanghai Metal Exchange. The SHFE inventory remained stable at around 7,800 tons, while the LME inventory slightly decreased to 1,710 tons. The tin import loss widened, and the 40% tin ore processing fee remained stable [1]. 3.2. Industrial Performance - According to Antaike's statistics, the total output of refined tin from 18 domestic smelters in July 2025 was 17,899 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. In the first half of 2025, domestic sample enterprises produced 122,000 tons of refined tin, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. Regionally, production in the Southwest, East, and Central China increased month - on - month by 3.5%, 6.7%, and 53.2% respectively, while production in South and North China decreased by 17.1% and 42.9% respectively. Year - on - year, production in the Southwest and South China increased by 24.9% and 61.6% respectively, while production in the East, Central, and North China decreased by 4.7%, 17.2%, and 50.0% respectively. Since July, the processing fee for 40 - degree tin concentrate in the mainstream domestic market has remained stable at 10,000 - 10,500 yuan per ton [2]. 3.3. Tin Futures Disk Data (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | Yuan/ton | 267,780 | 2,830 | 1.07% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 267,780 | 2,830 | 1.07% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 268,060 | 2,840 | 1.07% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,605 | 390 | 1.17% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.9 | - 0.22 | - 2.71% | [3] 3.4. Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing (Weekly) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | Yuan/ton | - 16,411.96 | - 2,111.91 | 14.77% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | Yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | Yuan/ton | 10,050 | 0 | 0% | [7] 3.5. Tin Inventory (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Warehouse Receipts: Total | Tons | 7,469 | 183 | 2.51% | | Shanghai Tin Inventory | Tons | 7,805 | 134 | 1.75% | | LME Tin Registered Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 1,390 | - 25 | - 1.77% | | LME Tin Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 320 | - 215 | - 40.19% | | LME Tin Inventory | Tons | 1,710 | - 240 | - 12.31% | | Social Inventory | Tons | 9,644 | - 110 | - 1.13% | [10][12] 3.6. Tin Spot Data (Weekly) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - Ferrous Tin Ingot | Yuan/ton | 268,000 | 3,400 | 1.28% | | 1 Tin Premium | Yuan/ton | 400 | - 100 | - 20% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | Yuan/ton | 256,000 | 3,400 | 1.35% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | Yuan/ton | 260,000 | 3,400 | 1.33% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - Ferrous | Yuan/ton | 173,750 | 1,500 | 0.87% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - Ferrous | Yuan/ton | 181,750 | 2,000 | 1.11% | | Lead - Free Solder | Yuan/ton | 274,250 | 3,500 | 1.29% | [11]