Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The stock index showed a mild upward trend with narrow - range fluctuations today, and the trading volume in the two markets slightly decreased. The basis of each futures variety and the option position PCR had mixed changes, indicating no obvious change in market sentiment. After digesting last week's positive news, the stock index may return to a mild upward state. This week, focus on the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting. If there is more positive news than expected, it may drive the stock index up; if it is lower than market expectations, the stock index may adjust, but the overall positive trend remains unchanged. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions and wait and see [4] Market Review - The stock index fluctuated strongly today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.21%. The trading volume in the two markets decreased by 450.29 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC rose with increasing volume, IH rose with decreasing volume, and IM fell with increasing volume [2] Important Information - The State Council executive meeting deployed measures to gradually implement free preschool education, emphasizing it as an important measure for the public. Local governments should refine work plans and allocate subsidy funds on time. - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly, and the driving effect of the "two new" policies continued to appear [3] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.09 | - 0.04 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.2993 | 4.6357 | 8.8191 | 18.6257 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 0.0547 | - 0.087 | 1.1258 | 2.6844 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.3839 | 9.5447 | 22.869 | 33.8751 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 0.3663 | - 0.1993 | 0.3134 | 1.1728 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.12 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.44 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.14 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 17423.07 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | - 450.29 | [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that trading positions should temporarily wait and see. Although the bond market prices rebounded significantly on the day, it is still not out of the adverse situation. The market is mainly driven by sentiment, and there is a risk of a second decline if risk assets rebound or there are new positive factors for risk appetite. It also mentions to pay attention to events such as the FOMC, Sino - US talks, and the Politburo meeting during this macro - super week [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened higher, then declined during the session, and finally closed sharply higher across the board. The long - end, which was greatly affected by sentiment before, also had more corrections [1]. - The open market continued net investment. The due reverse repurchase was 170.7 billion yuan, and new operations were 495.8 billion yuan, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The capital price continued to improve, with the DR001 weighted average falling to around 1.45% and the GC001 closing at around 1.35% at the end of the session [1]. 3.2. News The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments held on July 28 mentioned implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand, consolidating the industrial economic base, implementing a new round of stable - growth actions for ten key industries, formulating a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand to boost consumption, promoting the development and application of technologies such as AI terminals, and formulating guidelines for financial support for new - style industrialization [2]. 3.3. Market Analysis - The domestic market is trading around the reversal of the anti - involution sentiment, and the overall situation is still sentiment - driven. The A - share market showed strong resilience as a risk asset, with obvious sector rotation [3]. - For the bond market, although the price rebounded significantly, it is still facing challenges. The capital interest rate has not returned to the previous lower platform of 1.3 - 1.35%, and the market is passive, mainly affected by sentiment [3]. 3.4. Data - **Contract Data**: Detailed data on the prices, changes, positions, and basis of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 contracts are provided, as well as the trading volume of the main contracts [3]. - **Funding Rate Data**: Data on DR001, DR007, DR014, including their weighted average interest rates, changes, and trading volumes, are presented [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and coal price support. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment drive and capital game, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the significant decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which also exerts downward pressure on ferroalloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. The inventory of ferrosilicon is high but starting to gradually reduce, and the inventory reduction rate of ferromanganese is relatively fast. The ferroalloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high [4]. Summary by Relevant Contents Ferroalloy Price and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [3] Core Contradiction - **Reasons for Rise**: Strong policy expectations and coal price support, and the news of the anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises [4] - **Risks**: High risk of chasing high in the short term, downward pressure from the decline of coking coal futures, and weak fundamental resonance drive [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Low operating rate, high but gradually decreasing inventory of ferrosilicon, and relatively fast inventory reduction of ferromanganese [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased; enterprise inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week, while warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.73% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 0.29% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.5% week - on - week [8] - **Ferromanganese**: Enterprise inventory decreased by 5.22% week - on - week, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.85% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 3.69% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.24% week - on - week [9] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises increased by 0.88% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 2.3% week - on - week; coking coal prices dropped significantly [9] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [9] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 316 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 412 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 388 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared with July 25, 2025, but increased compared with July 21, 2025; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 28 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 54 compared with July 21, 2025 [10] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 446 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 540 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions had certain changes; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 52 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 1150 compared with July 21, 2025 [11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of ferrosilicon market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, as well as seasonal data of ferromanganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory are provided, including data from different years and different contracts [12][25][37]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various monthly contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures opened lower and fluctuated widely today. Except for EC2512 and 2602, the prices of the remaining monthly contracts declined slightly. The overall commodity sentiment was bearish, driving down the EC price. CMA CGM continued to lower the spot cabin quotes for the European Line in August, further reducing the futures price valuation. The new trade agreement between the US and the EU, which imposes a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US, has a slightly bearish impact. Although there is support at the bottom of the futures price, it is expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend due to the influence of the spot market. Attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies, changes in the spot cabin quotes for the European Line, and the cease - fire negotiations in Gaza [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Position Management**: For those who have obtained cabin positions but face full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about the decline in freight rates, to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling advice in the range of 1800 - 1900 [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they want to book cabins according to order situations, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to prevent the increase in transportation costs caused by the rise in freight rates and determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying advice in the range of 1350 - 1450 [1]. EC Basis Daily Changes | Contract | Basis (Points) | Daily Change (Points) | Weekly Change (Points) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 133.36 | 29.40 | 24.76 | | EC2510 | 813.76 | 24.70 | 5.96 | | EC2512 | 578.76 | - 17.60 | - 79.54 | | EC2602 | 775.56 | - 22.20 | - 138.54 | | EC2604 | 946.56 | - 8.30 | - 116.94 | | EC2606 | 822.96 | - 59.54 | - 133.54 | [3][5] EC Price and Spread | Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change Rate | Weekly Change Rate | Spread Contract | Closing Price (Points) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2183.2 | - 1.33% | - 4.74% | EC2508 - 2512 | 445.4 | - 47.0 | - 104.3 | | EC2510 | 1502.8 | - 1.62% | - 5.64% | EC2512 - 2604 | 367.8 | 9.3 | - 79.5 | | EC2512 | 1737.8 | 1.02% | - 0.25% | EC2604 - 2508 | - 813.2 | 37.7 | 42.3 | | EC2602 | 1541.0 | 1.46% | 3.67% | EC2508 - 2510 | 680.4 | - 47.0 | - 18.8 | | EC2604 | 1370.0 | - 0.50% | 2.47% | EC2510 - 2512 | - 235.0 | - 42.3 | - 85.5 | | EC2606 | 1493.6 | - 1.61% | 3.43% | EC2512 - 2602 | 196.8 | - 4.6 | - 73.8 | [5] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 7, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1836, an increase of $14 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3092, an increase of $28 compared to the previous period. - In early August, for some of CMA CGM's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1985, a decrease of $100/200 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3543, a decrease of $200/300 compared to the previous period [7]. Global Freight Rate Indexes | Index | Latest Value | Previous Value | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Line (Points) | 2316.56 | 2400.5 | - 83.94 | - 3.50% | | SCFIS: US West Line (Points) | 1301.81 | 1266.59 | 35.22 | 2.78% | | SCFI: European Line ($/TEU) | 2090 | 2079 | 11 | 0.53% | | SCFI: US West Line ($/FEU) | 2067 | 2142 | - 75 | - 3.50% | | XSI: European Line ($/FEU) | 3410 | 3406 | 4 | 0.12% | | XSI: US West Line ($/FEU) | 2206 | 2216 | - 10 | - 0.5% | | FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index ($/FEU) | 2377 | 2366 | 11 | 0.46% | [8] Global Major Port Waiting Times | Port | 2025 - 07 - 27 | 2025 - 07 - 26 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hong Kong Port | 2.364 | 1.425 | 0.939 | 0.738 | | Shanghai Port | 0.893 | 0.715 | 0.178 | 0.985 | | Yantian Port | 0.748 | 0.771 | - 0.023 | 0.773 | | Singapore Port | 0.815 | 0.600 | 0.215 | 0.474 | | Jakarta Port | 1.125 | 1.562 | - 0.437 | 0.451 | | Long Beach Port | 1.786 | 1.338 | 0.448 | 1.978 | | Savannah Port | 0.602 | 1.026 | - 0.424 | 0.619 | [13] Ship Speeds and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | Ship Type | 2025 - 07 - 27 | 2025 - 07 - 26 | Daily Change | Last Year's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8000+ | 15.793 | 16.043 | - 0.25 | 15.803 | | 3000+ | 14.685 | 14.878 | - 0.193 | 15.14 | | 1000+ | 13.258 | 13.263 | - 0.005 | 13.395 | | Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage | 11 | 12 | - 1 | 10 | [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index Settlement (SCFIS) for European routes stopped rising and declined, while the US West routes rebounded. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to decline [1][7]. - The current influencing factor for futures prices is the spot cabin quotes on European routes. The spot cabin quotes of some major shipping companies in August started to fall, reducing the valuation of near - month contract futures prices, while the strong commodity sentiment and relatively eased macro - sentiment led to a short - term rebound in futures prices, causing the overall long - term futures prices to rise slightly [1]. - There are many uncertain factors, and it is more likely that futures prices will maintain a slightly downward trend in the short term. Traders are advised to observe and look for opportunities to short the basis in the short term, and can temporarily stay on the sidelines for inter - period arbitrage [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Strategy - For the spot - futures (basis) strategy, traders should observe and look for short - term opportunities to short the basis [2]. - For the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy, traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines [3]. 3. Market Review - As of Friday, the closing prices and settlement prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends. The closing price of EC2510 fell 5.30% from the previous week to 1527.5 points, and the settlement price fell 6.14% to 1530.9 points. The main influencing factor was the spot cabin quotes on European routes [3]. 4. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of July 21, the SCFIS European route, the futures underlying index, stopped rising and declined with a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% (previous value was 7.26%), while the US West route freight rate rebounded with a month - on - month increase of 2.78% (previous value was - 18.69%). As of July 25, CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to decline [7]. - By route, the North American routes continued to decline. The SCFI US West route decreased 3.50% month - on - month (previous week was - 2.37%), the SCFI US East route decreased 6.48% month - on - month (previous week was - 13.42%), and the SCFI European route increased 0.53% month - on - month (previous week was - 0.95%) [7]. - Demand Side - No specific summary content is provided in the text, only data charts such as the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in deployed capacity by route are presented [21][23]. - Supply Side - As of July 25, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 1.8%. The idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 66,230 TEU, accounting for 1.4% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships from 12,000 to 16,999 TEU was 25,859 TEU, accounting for 0.3% of this type of ships. The idle ratio of ultra - large container ships decreased again [27]. - The congestion index of Shanghai Port decreased by 7.9 thousand TEU to 547.8 thousand TEU compared with last week; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port decreased by 22.3 thousand TEU to 176.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port increased by 5.5 thousand TEU to 95.2 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 12.4 thousand TEU to 106.6 thousand TEU [30]. 5. Spread Analysis - The current SCFIS European route stopped rising and declined with a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%, reported at 2400.50 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1592.7 points on Monday, and the basis increased slightly compared with last week. Affected by the decline in the spot cabin quotes of some shipping companies on European routes in August, the valuation of the 10 - contract decreased, while the futures underlying remained at a relatively stable level based on the current spot freight rates, so the basis was still relatively high. Traders are advised to observe and look for short - term opportunities to short the basis [35]. - The spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 685.1 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 492.4 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 192.7 points. The 08 - contract is about to enter the delivery month, and the futures price volatility has converged. The 10 and 12 contracts had relatively large previous increases, mainly due to the stable and rising spot cabin quotes on European routes. Now that the MSK quotes have finally fallen, the 10 and 12 contracts also had relatively large declines. Traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper prices rose and then fell during the week. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and the increased copper demand expectation from the Yajiang Hydropower Station construction. However, their short - term impact on copper should be limited. With the fading of anti - involution enthusiasm, copper prices may decline slightly in the next week. The last week of July will be a macro super - week, and copper prices may experience significant fluctuations. The weekly price range is expected to be between 79,200 - 78,200 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Futures Prices**: The Shanghai copper main futures contract closed at around 79,200 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week decline of 0.56%. International copper closed at 70,360 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. LME copper 3 - month was at $9,796, up 0.02%. COMEX copper was at $580.4, up 3.99% [1][3] - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper was at 79,450 yuan per ton, up 1%. Shanghai Wumaot was at 79,535 yuan per ton, up 1.14%. Guangdong Nanchu was at 79,380 yuan per ton, up 1.07%. Yangtze Non - Ferrous was at 79,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18% [7] 2. Industry Situation - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca open - pit mine in Chile is facing tailings storage problems, reducing this year's production forecast from 230,000 - 270,000 tons to 210,000 - 230,000 tons. The expansion project has exceeded the budget by $4 billion and been delayed for several years. However, Teck expects to solve the tailings problem soon and maintain its 2026 production forecast [2] 3. Inventory Status - **Domestic Inventories**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts decreased by 57.81% to 16,133 tons, and Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 13.17% to 73,423 tons. International copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,667 tons [13] - **Overseas Inventories**: LME copper inventory increased by 5.16% to 128,475 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.39% to 248,635 tons [13] 4. Intermediate Production and Utilization - **Output**: In June 2025, refined copper output was 1.302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. Copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [16] - **Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, scrap copper rods, copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 62.32%, 32.01%, 68.73%, 51.52%, and 72.25% respectively [18] 5. Import Data - In June 2025, copper concentrate imports were 2.34969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Anode copper imports were 68,548 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Cathode copper imports were 300,506 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. Scrap copper imports were 183,244 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Copper product imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of the stock index is positive, but it may experience a phased adjustment. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. - In the RMB exchange rate market, investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on the progress of China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. - For the container shipping industry, the SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. - In the precious metals market, focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend of gold and silver may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. - For base metals, copper prices may decline slightly; aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term; zinc is in a high - level shock; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a certain range; tin prices may decline slightly; lead is mainly in a shock state [8][10][12][13][15][21]. - In the energy and chemical industry, crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage; PX - PTA can be considered to expand the processing fee at low prices; for other energy and chemical products, pay attention to policy changes and market fundamentals [29][30][33]. - In the black metal market, the over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end; the contradiction in the iron ore market is accumulating; the coal - coke market may return to rationality; for silicon iron and silicon manganese, pay attention to risks [23][24][26][27]. - For agricultural products, the market game for live pigs has intensified [50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: On Friday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1679 at 16:30, down 132 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1680 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1419, down 34 basis points [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, and most trade agreements would be reached before August. The Russian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate from 20% to 18% [2]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's independence is being challenged. Investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: On Friday, the stock index showed mixed trends, with the large - cap index falling and the small - and medium - cap index rising. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 573.69 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: China's industrial enterprise profits in June decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the equipment manufacturing industry played a prominent supporting role. The State Council executive meeting deployed measures for gradually promoting free pre - school education [3]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index may experience a phased adjustment, but the overall trend is positive. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: On Friday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) contracts fluctuated after a sharp decline at the opening. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends [4]. - **Important Information**: The freight quotes of Maersk and ONE for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed different changes [4]. - **Core Logic**: The SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Review**: Last week, the precious metals market showed a reverse V - shaped trend. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased sharply, and there was a large inflow of funds into US gold and silver ETFs at the beginning of the week, but the price reversed on Wednesday [5]. - **Important Information**: The US - Japan and US - EU trade agreements were close to being reached, and the domestic anti - involution policy led to a general rise in commodities and the stock market [5]. - **Core Logic**: Focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory showed different trends in different markets [8]. - **Important Information**: Teck Resources lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine due to tailings storage problems [8]. - **Core Logic**: Copper prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price of Shanghai aluminum showed a slight increase, and the trading volume and positions changed. The price of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy affected the market sentiment, and the exchange issued a position limit notice [9][10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, considering the influence of macro events and fundamentals [10]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fell slightly, and the trading volume and positions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The "anti - involution" sentiment affected the market [12]. - **Core Logic**: Zinc is in a high - level shock. The supply may gradually shift from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. Appropriate short - selling at high prices is recommended [12]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong trend during the week but回调 on Friday night. The price of stainless steel also showed an upward trend during the week [13]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy and relevant news affected the market, and the supply of nickel ore was expected to be loose [14]. - **Core Logic**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan and [12,500 - 13,100] yuan respectively [15]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory was stable [15]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy affected the price [15]. - **Core Logic**: Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [16]. Lead - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose slightly, and the trading volume and positions increased [21]. - **Important Information**: The production of a refinery in Anhui recovered, and a large - scale recycled lead refinery in Inner Mongolia was expected to produce lead next week [21]. - **Core Logic**: Lead is mainly in a shock state, affected by the supply - demand relationship and market sentiment [22]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Speculative position reduction and inventory increase suppressed oil prices, and the prices of US and Brent crude oil futures fell [29]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced that the US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the Houthi armed forces upgraded the maritime blockade [29]. - **Core Logic**: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage. Pay attention to the results of important macro meetings this week [30]. PTA - PX - **Market Review**: PX - PTA was generally strong under the influence of commodity sentiment and polyester demand improvement [30]. - **Important Information**: PX Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance, and there were rumors of PTA plant maintenance in August [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: The PX - TA industry chain has limited fundamental drivers. Consider expanding the processing fee at low prices [32]. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Market Review and Core Logic**: Each product has different market performances and core logics, mainly affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and market sentiments. For example, MEG - bottle chips are recommended to wait and see; methanol is mainly driven by macro factors; PP and PE are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; PVC is recommended to wait and see in the short term; BZ and styrene are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have different supply - demand and inventory situations; asphalt follows the cost - end shock; urea is expected to fluctuate weakly; glass and soda ash are affected by anti - involution expectations and fundamentals; pulp is driven by macro emotions;烧碱 focuses on near - month warehouse receipts [32][33][35][37][38][39][41][42][43][44][45][47][48][50]. Black Metal Market Steel - **Market Review**: On Friday night, coking coal hit the daily limit down, and black metal varieties followed suit [23]. - **Important Information**: The profits of industrial enterprises in the first half of the year were announced, and there were price adjustment and position limit news in the coking coal market [23]. - **Core Logic**: The over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end. Pay attention to the actual demand and tariff policies [23]. Iron Ore - **Market Review**: The price of iron ore has corrected, while coking coal has maintained a strong upward trend [23]. - **Important Information**: The global iron ore shipping volume is at a seasonal high, and the dry bulk freight has increased [24]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of iron ore are okay, but the room for improvement is limited. The contradiction in the market is accumulating, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly this week, and the coking coal futures limit on Friday night caused the price to fall [24][26]. - **Important Information**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have changed, and the inventory situation is different [25]. - **Core Logic**: The coal - coke market may return to rationality, and pay attention to the Politburo meeting and China - US trade negotiations [26]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rose last week, and they were affected by the anti - involution meeting and the decline of coking coal futures on Friday night [27]. - **Important Information**: The supply and demand, inventory, and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed [27]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term risk of chasing high is high, and pay attention to the implementation of policies and risk control [28]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Review**: The futures price of live pigs showed a slight increase [50]. - **Important Information**: No specific important information is provided. - **Core Logic**: The market game for live pigs has intensified [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the lead industry is "Oscillation" [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, the lead price showed a range-bound oscillation, and the anti-involution sentiment had little driving force on lead. The supply side remained relatively stable, with the electrolytic lead operating rate steady and the secondary lead smelting still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw materials. The demand side improved slightly compared to last week as the low lead price prompted downstream enterprises to replenish stocks at low prices. However, the lead battery operating rate remained sluggish, and the demand was still weak in the short term. It is expected that the lead market will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Disk Review - This week, the lead price was in a range-bound oscillation, closing at 16,955 yuan per ton. The inventory of lead ingots in five domestic regions was 71,400 tons, and the LME inventory was 266,300 tons [1] Industrial Performance - Due to the resumption of production of a smelter in Anhui this week, the regional operating rate increased by 6.6 percentage points. A large secondary lead smelter in Inner Mongolia is in the furnace-drying stage and is expected to produce lead next week. From January to June 2025, the monthly average sequential growth rate of electric bicycles sold through the trade-in program was 113.5%, and the output of the top ten brands of electric bicycles increased by 27.6% year-on-year. A total of 846,500 electric bicycles were traded in and replaced each, and 82,000 sales outlets participated in the program, with an average increase in single-store sales of 302,000 yuan [1] Core Logic - This week, the lead price was in a range-bound oscillation, and the anti-involution sentiment had little impact on lead. On the supply side, there was little change, with the electrolytic lead operating rate remaining stable. Secondary lead was still in a loss state due to cost support and scarce raw materials. On the demand side, it improved compared to last week as the low lead price led to downstream restocking. However, the lead battery operating rate remained weak, and the demand was still weak in the short term. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillatory trend [2] Nanhua's Viewpoint - The lead market is expected to be mainly oscillatory [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the zinc industry is mainly "oscillating" [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, zinc prices showed a wide - range oscillation, closing at 22,885 yuan per ton. Domestic zinc ingot inventories are at a low level in recent years, and LME inventories are also decreasing. The overall zinc market was strongly influenced by anti - involution sentiment this week, remaining relatively strong, but the upward momentum was insufficient after Monday, gradually moving towards high - level oscillation, with a decline in Friday's night session [1] - In the short term, if there are no strong policy measures to stimulate the non - ferrous industry again, the market will return to fundamentals, and it is advisable to sell on rallies overall [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Futures Market**: The closing price of SHFE zinc futures' main contract was 22,885 yuan, up 3.41% week - on - week; LME zinc closed at 2,823.5 dollars, up 4.15% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Market**: The price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,770 yuan per ton, up 2.02% week - on - week; 1 zinc ingot was 22,700 yuan per ton, also up 2.02% week - on - week [16] 2. Industry News - **Canadian Mining Company Teck Resources**: In Q2 2025, Red Dog mine produced 136,600 metal tons of zinc concentrate, slightly down year - on - year due to lower ore grades; lead concentrate production remained stable at 27,500 tons. The sales volume of zinc concentrate in Q2 was 35,100 metal tons, down 35% year - on - year, but still higher than the guidance range. Teck expects the inventory accumulated in the first half of the year to be released in Q3, with a sales guidance range of 200,000 - 250,000 metal tons. Trail smelter produced 50,900 tons of refined zinc in Q2, 14,000 tons less than last year, in line with the company's plan to maximize profitability by reducing production [2] - **Glencore**: Glencore announced on July 22 that it would sell its Lady Loretta zinc mine and related land to Austral Resources. Lady Loretta is expected to close at the end of 2025, and after its closure, the lead - zinc concentrate production of Mount Isa may decrease by about one - third [3] 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Mining End**: In June, zinc ore imports declined, but were still strong year - on - year. The port inventory of zinc concentrates in China was 354,000 tons, up 86,000 tons week - on - week [1] - **Smelting End**: The operating rate of smelters remained strong this week, with a strong willingness to resume production. The treatment charge (TC) continued to rise, and profit repair was stable [3] - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of downstream industries mainly decreased week - on - week, affected by the off - season of consumption and high zinc prices this week, showing a weak performance [3] 4. Inventory Situation - Domestic inventories increased due to high zinc prices, showing short - term oscillation. With the resumption of smelter production and weak downstream demand, inventories may gradually rise. LME zinc inventories are at a low level in recent years, supporting zinc prices [5] 5. Production and Utilization Rate - In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of zinc concentrates was 100.81%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.45% and a year - on - year increase of 4.03% [33] - In June 2025, the production of refined zinc was 496,700 tons, down 1.88% year - on - year; the production of zinc concentrates was 328,300 tons, up 4.75% year - on - year [33] 6. Import and Export Data - In June 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 329,957 tons, up 22.42% year - on - year; the import volume of refined zinc was 36,061 tons, up 3.24% year - on - year [36] 7. Supply - Demand Balance - In June 2025, the supply - demand balance of zinc concentrates was - 2,000 metal tons, down 96.5% year - on - year and 103.85% month - on - month; the supply - demand balance of refined zinc was 24,000 tons, down 2500.00% year - on - year and 211.11% month - on - month [45] 8. Downstream Consumption - The weekly operating rates of galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloys were 59.42%, 55.99%, and 51.03% respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 0.3%, - 0.33%, and - 0.92% [48]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices recently rose and then fell. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and increased copper demand expectations from Yajiang Hydropower Station construction. However, the short - term impact of both factors on copper should be limited. The supply side has no significant over - capacity to eliminate, and anti - involution in the downstream is more negative than positive for demand. The long construction cycle of the hydropower station means low initial copper demand. The increase in copper prices was likely a passive rise due to capital overflow from other sectors. In the short term, as the anti - involution hype fades, copper prices may decline slightly. The upcoming week is a macro super - week with significant events that could cause large price fluctuations in copper during the last week of July [3]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract near 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contract near 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, lower LME inventory levels, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and anti - involution benefiting the non - ferrous metals sector [4][7] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [7] Copper Futures Market Data | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 79,250 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 79,250 | - 640 | - 0.8% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 79,240 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,796 | - 58.5 | - 0.59% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | ratio | 8.06 | - 0.06 | - 0.74% | [6][8] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,450 | - 345 | - 0.43% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | yuan/ton | 79,535 | - 220 | - 0.28% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | yuan/ton | 79,380 | - 270 | - 0.34% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,640 | - 280 | - 0.35% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 125 | - 20 | - 13.79% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | 10 | 9.52% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 125 | 0 | 0% | [10] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread Data | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 840.74 | - 463.62 | - 35.54% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,492.45 | - 5.7 | - 0.38% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | - 651.71 | - 457.92 | 236.3% | | Current Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 5,545 | - 470 | - 7.81% | | Reasonable Scrap - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,199.6 | - 39.56 | - 0.63% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | - 654.6 | - 430.44 | 192.02% | [12] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts**: Total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 16,133 tons, a decrease of 0.31%. International Copper warehouse receipts total 4,667 tons, unchanged. Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai are 4,565 tons, a decrease of 1.08%. Bonded total is 0 tons, a 100% decrease. Tax - paid total is 16,133 tons, a decrease of 0.31% [15] - **LME Copper Inventory**: Total LME copper inventory is 128,475 tons, an increase of 2.97%. European inventory is 26,200 tons, a decrease of 4.38%. Asian inventory is 102,275 tons, an increase of 5.03%. North American inventory is 0 tons, a 100% decrease. Registered warehouse receipts total 109,625 tons, an increase of 4.48%. Cancelled warehouse receipts total 18,850 tons, a decrease of 5.04% [17] - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: Total COMEX copper inventory is 248,635 tons, an increase of 2.39%. Registered warehouse receipts total 109,064 tons, an increase of 1%. Cancelled warehouse receipts total 139,571 tons, a decrease of 0.22% [20] Copper Import and Processing Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | - 482.5 | - 9.52 | 2.01% | | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 42.75 | 0.15 | - 0.35% | [21]