Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the policy expectation persists, with the possibility of re - heating. From a practical perspective, there is significant short - term warehouse receipt pressure, and the delivery logic is starting to play out. The market is characterized by a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with the policy expectation yet to be falsified. There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there is huge short - term delivery pressure. The positive factors include the persistence of policy expectations and the logic of rising coal costs, while the negative factor is that the fundamental reality has not improved significantly, and the rigid demand is weakening [2] Group 3: Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for glass is in the range of 1200 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 97.8%. The monthly price forecast for纯碱 is in the range of 1200 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 75.6% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: For high glass product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 50% of FG2509 futures at 1400 and sell 50% of FG509C1400 call options at 40 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy 50% of FG2509 futures at 1100 and sell 50% of FG509P1100 put options at 50 - 60 to lock in procurement costs [1] 纯碱 - **Inventory Management**: For high纯碱 product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 50% of SA2509 futures at 1600 and sell 50% of SA509C1500 call options at 40 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For low纯碱 procurement inventory, buy 50% of SA2509 futures at 1200 - 1250 and sell 50% of SA509P1260 put options at 40 - 60 to lock in procurement costs [1] Group 5: Glass Market Data Glass Futures - On July 29, 2025, the glass 05 contract price was 1368, up 34 (2.55%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1188, down 35 (-2.86%); the 01 contract was 1313, up 13 (1%) [4] Glass Spot - The average price of glass in Shahe on July 29, 2025, was 1278.2, down 7 from the previous day. Prices in different regions also showed fluctuations, such as a 10 - point decrease in North China and a 10 - point increase in South China [5] Group 6: Soda Ash Market Data Soda Ash Futures - On July 29, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract price was 1447, up 30 (2.12%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1318, up 2 (0.15%); the 01 contract was 1407, up 20 (1.44%) [6] Soda Ash Spot - The market prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on July 29, 2025, with some exceptions like a 50 - point increase in heavy and light soda ash prices in the Northeast region [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity sentiment has cooled down, and the leading stocks have lost momentum. The market is dull, with a continuous oscillatory adjustment after a peak. The trading volume has been declining since last week's peak. There is no obvious driving force after the valuation repair, and there is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals. There are relatively more ship - buying activities recently, leading to short - term arrival pressure. The spot price has changed little, and the pressure from the delivery goods will be gradually digested by the market. The current futures price is slightly overvalued based on the warehouse receipt cost in Taicang, while the hedging profit is better when anchored to the warehouse receipt cost in Chongqing. Industry customers who are not optimistic about the future market can consider hedging after August to lock in the futures profit and quickly recover funds through delivery. According to the latest data from Steel Union, the CFR quotation remains unchanged at $114. There is no obvious contradiction in inventory and delivery volume. Due to cost support, the strategy can consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over the past 3 years [2] 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 850 - 875 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be made according to order situations, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The commodity market is dull after a peak, with the trading volume declining. There is no obvious driving force after the valuation repair, and there is no significant fundamental contradiction. There is short - term arrival pressure, and the delivery pressure will be digested. The current futures price is slightly overvalued based on Taicang's warehouse receipt cost, while the hedging profit is better when anchored to Chongqing's cost. Industry customers can consider hedging after August. The CFR quotation remains unchanged, and there is no obvious contradiction in inventory and delivery volume. A strategy of selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time can be considered [3] 3.4 Spot and Basis - On July 29, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in various ports (such as 3.9 large (3.8A) in Rizhao Port, 4 large (3.8A) in Taicang Port, etc.) and their corresponding basis values are presented. Some spot prices have no change, while some have small fluctuations. The basis values vary according to different specifications and ports [5][8] 3.5利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; the import cost continues to rise; the overall commodity sentiment has improved; and there is an impact from funds [7] 3.6利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - The peak season fails to show strong performance; the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [7] 3.7 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous week and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous week but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous week and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9] - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the average daily log delivery volume at ports was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous week and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily delivery volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous week and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The average daily delivery volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous week and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9] - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous week. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous week [9] - **Main Spot Prices**: On July 29, 2025, the spot prices of some log specifications (such as 3.9 medium (3.8A) in Rizhao Port, 4 medium (3.8A) in Taicang Port) showed no change compared to the previous period, with varying year - on - year decreases [9] - **External Market Quotation**: As of August 1, 2025, the CFR quotation was $114, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The BPI and BSI freight rate indices continued to decline in the current week, but the increase in the BCI freight rate index drove the BDI comprehensive freight rate index to strengthen. The shipping volumes of corn, soybean meal, and coal continued to increase significantly, and the shipping volume of iron ore remained at a high level. The demand for shipping boosted the demand for Capesize and Handysize vessels, supporting the rise of the BCI and BHSI freight rate indices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review - **BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis**: On July 28, compared with the previous week, the increase in the BDI comprehensive freight rate index and the BCI freight rate index continued to expand slightly, while the adjustment range of the BPI and BSI freight rate indices widened. The BDI comprehensive freight rate index closed at 2,226 points, a week - on - week increase of 10.42%; the BCI freight rate index closed at 3,774 points, a week - on - week increase of 26.60%; the BPI freight rate index closed at 1,798 points, a week - on - week decrease of 6.11%; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1,289 points, a week - on - week decrease of 4.23%; the BHSI freight rate index closed at 680 points, a week - on - week increase of 0.74% [3]. - **FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index**: On July 28, the FDI index declined across the board, and the decline widened. Most of the freight rates in the Capesize vessel rental market of the FDI rental index changed from rising to falling. The FDI comprehensive freight rate index closed at 1,332.32 points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%; the FDI rental index closed at 1,625.32 points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [7]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipping Situation Tracking - **Number of Shipping Vessels in Shipping Countries on the Day**: On July 29, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 37 shipping vessels, Russia used 5, Argentina used 22, and Australia used 5. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 49, Guinea used 26, Indonesia used 33, Russia used 23, South Africa used 18, Brazil used 15, and the United States used 14 [11]. - **Analysis of Shipping Volume and Vessel Demand on the Day**: In terms of agricultural product shipping, 25 vessels were used for corn shipping, 13 for wheat, 18 for soybeans, 18 for soybean meal, and 10 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 105 vessels were used for coal shipping, 71 for iron ore, and 12 for other dry goods. For agricultural product shipping, the largest number of vessels required was 33 Ultra - Panamax vessels, followed by 17 Supramax vessels and 21 Handysize vessels. For industrial product shipping, the largest number of vessels required was 73 Capesize vessels, followed by 68 Ultra - Panamax vessels and 59 Supramax vessels [12]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports The number of vessels at ports in China, Indonesia, and South Africa continued to increase week - on - week. From July 1 to July 28, the number of dry bulk vessels docked at ports in China increased significantly by 16 week - on - week; the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 9 week - on - week; the number of vessels docked at six Indonesian ports increased by 4 week - on - week; the number of vessels docked at five Brazilian ports decreased by 1 week - on - week [12]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight Rates and Commodity Prices - On July 28, the price of Brazilian soybeans was $40 per ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 3,972.56 yuan per ton. - On July 25, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,223 per day. On July 28, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $114.6 per thousand tons. - On July 25, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13,781 per day. On July 28, the latest quote for the steam coal arrival price was 532.98 yuan per ton. - On July 28, the Handysize vessel freight rate index was quoted at 679.8 points. On August 1, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter radiata pine was $114 per cubic meter [16].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Analyst: Gao Xiang from Nanhua Research Institute [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Trading strategy: Trading desks are advised to wait and see for now, waiting for the uncertainty to clear up [2][4] - Market outlook: The bond market pressure exceeded expectations. The market was weak in the morning due to Sino-US negotiations, and small rumors during the session pushed up commodities while pressuring the bond market. The market is still expecting policy support. With the Politburo meeting, Sino-US negotiation results, and FOMC meeting approaching, it's better to wait for the negative factors to materialize [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened lower, with prices falling throughout the day. T2509 dropped 0.27 yuan, erasing the previous day's rebound. All contracts in the market declined significantly [2] Fundamentals - The funds situation improved today, with an OMO net injection of 234.4 billion yuan. The interbank overnight rate dropped, but non-bank institutions faced tight liquidity, with GC001 rising to 1.66% [2] Group 5: Data Summary Contract Prices and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Price | 2025-07-28 Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.302 | 102.364 | -0.062 | | TF2509 | 105.55 | 105.72 | -0.17 | | T2509 | 108.14 | 108.4 | -0.26 | | TL2509 | 117.89 | 118.8 | -0.91 | [5] Contract Positions and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Position (lots) | 2025-07-28 Position (lots) | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Contract | 110,965 | 113,761 | -2,796 | | TF Contract | 199,964 | 198,868 | 1,096 | | T Contract | 235,144 | 234,352 | 792 | | TL Contract | 163,084 | 158,720 | 4,364 | [5] Basis and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Basis | 2025-07-28 Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0024 | 0.0161 | -0.0185 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0398 | 0.0678 | -0.028 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.047 | 0.0971 | -0.0501 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2624 | 0.4972 | -0.2348 | [5] Trading Volume and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Volume (lots) | 2025-07-28 Volume (lots) | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Main Contract | 40,325 | 43,197 | -2,872 | | TF Main Contract | 59,938 | 71,923 | -11,985 | | T Main Contract | 77,831 | 78,985 | -1,154 | | TL Main Contract | 140,838 | 120,609 | 20,229 | [5] Repo Rates and Changes | Rate | 2025-07-29 Rate | 2025-07-28 Rate | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.4621% | 1.5174% | -0.0553% | | DR007 | 1.5806% | 1.6523% | -0.0717% | | DR014 | 1.6388% | 1.6686% | -0.0298% | [5] Repo Trading Volume and Changes | Rate | 2025-07-29 Volume (billion yuan) | 2025-07-28 Volume (billion yuan) | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 225.265468 | 240.185631 | -14.920163 | | DR007 | 16.506121 | 14.265304 | 2.240817 | | DR014 | 0.7336 | 0.587261 | 0.146339 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short - term, the export of the second batch of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Price Interval Forecast - The price interval forecast for urea in the next month is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1%. For methanol, the price interval is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene and plastic, the price intervals are both 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% respectively, and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in urea prices, companies can short the urea futures (UR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1800 - 1950. They can also buy 50% of put options (UR2509P1850) to prevent a sharp price drop and sell 50% of call options (UR2509C1950) to reduce capital costs [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about a rise in urea prices, companies can buy urea futures (UR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry interval of 1750 - 1900. They can also sell 75% of put options (UR2509P1750) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - A large amount of speculative funds left the market on Friday night, and the urea futures are expected to decline, which will put pressure on the spot market. In the medium - term, the second - batch export of urea supports the demand side, and inventories are unlikely to accumulate significantly in the short - term. Factory inventories and pending orders are not under much pressure, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating, which supports the urea price. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year [4]. 3.4利多解读 and 利空解读 - Urea exports have been confirmed, and the futures are expected to show a wide - range shock pattern with enhanced downward support. The domestic policy requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The recent methanol price fluctuations are mainly driven by macro factors rather than industry fundamentals, with intensified speculative sentiment. It is recommended to wait for the implementation of macro - policies. From an industrial perspective, methanol is not suitable for upward trading, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 3.2 Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2509P2) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 and sell call options (MA2509C2) at 45 - 60 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. They can sell put options (MA2509P2) with a 75% ratio at 20 - 25 to reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The recent methanol price fluctuations are not industry - led, exceeding fundamental analysis, with intensified speculative sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, Iranian shipments are accelerating, with 610,000 tons shipped so far and an import forecast of around 1.25 million tons for July - August. Methanol coal - to - methanol profits remain high. The profit of methanol downstream is further compressed. It is not advisable to go long on methanol from an industrial perspective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient. It is expected that the port methanol inventory will increase [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.20 in the next week. Investors are advised to use options to hedge tail risks in the current low - volatility environment [2]. - The release of the child - rearing subsidy policy is expected to stimulate related sectors and drive the stock index up. The outcome of the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting this week will affect the stock index trend [3]. - For treasury bonds, although prices have recovered, there are still risks. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to key events such as the FOMC, China - US talks, and the Politburo meeting this week [4][5]. - In the short term, the commodity market is volatile. It is recommended to wait for the sentiment to stabilize before trading. In the long term, focus on the implementation of anti - involution policies and changes in the fundamentals of some commodities [6]. - The price of the EC in the shipping index is expected to be slightly bearish in the short term, but there is support at the bottom. Pay attention to the actions of shipping companies, spot quotes, and cease - fire negotiations [7][8][9]. - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility of London gold may increase. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [10][11][12]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the short term as the anti - involution fever subsides. Attention should be paid to macro events this week [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina may experience high - volatility trading, and investors can consider inter - month arbitrage; casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference changes [14]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term. It is appropriate to short on rallies [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate widely and be bearish in the long term. Focus on the callback of nickel - iron and the recovery of nickel salt demand [17]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution fever fades. Pay attention to macro events in late July [18]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the situation of mines and important meetings this week [19]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to have support at the bottom. Pay attention to the July meetings [20][21]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait for the peak season and changes in macro and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. - For steel products, the upward trend may not end. Pay attention to the actual demand for steel, new tariff policies, and the implementation of anti - involution policies [23]. - Iron ore prices are mainly affected by non - fundamental factors. The short - term fundamentals are expected to remain stable, but the volatility may increase near the meeting [24]. - For coking coal and coke, the market may return to rationality after the sharp decline. Further upward movement requires super - expected macro policies. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and China - US trade negotiations [25][26][27]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term risk of chasing high is high. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [27][28]. - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the sideways - shock pattern. Geopolitical risks need to be focused on [29][30]. - For PX - PTA, it is recommended to expand the TA processing fee on dips [30][31]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to wait and see before the implementation of anti - involution policies. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [32][33]. - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is macro - driven [34]. - For PP, the supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to downstream demand and macro policies [35][36]. - For PE, the short - term pressure is large, but the downward space is limited. The demand is expected to pick up in the future [37][38][39]. - For PVC, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the anti - involution sentiment is unstable [39][40]. - For pure benzene, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the market is affected by macro emotions [40][41]. - For styrene, it is recommended to wait and see after the important macro meetings this week due to the expected increase in supply and decrease in demand [43]. - For fuel oil, the short - term drive is downward, and the market remains weak [44]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to wait and see as the supply is low and the demand is slightly improved [44]. - For asphalt, the short - term price is in a shock pattern, and the peak season is expected in the long term. Pay attention to the implementation of anti - involution policies [44][45]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [45][46]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to cost fluctuations and policy implementation [46]. - For glass, the market will continue to game between reality and expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and the approach of the delivery logic [47]. - For logs, the market is expected to have low - volatility shocks in the short term. Pay attention to risk control [47]. - For pulp, pay attention to the adjustment risk. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high after the breakthrough [48]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to the delivery logic of the 09 contract and the pressure on the supply side in the long term [48][49]. - For live pigs, with high supplies, it is recommended to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [50]. - For oilseeds, pay attention to China - US trade negotiations. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant in the short term, and there may be a supply gap after December [51]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1729 at 16:30 yesterday, down 50 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1787 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1467, down 48 basis points [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump said he would never want a weak US dollar, and Powell may be ready to cut interest rates. The European Central Bank is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs [2]. - **Core Logic**: The independence of the Fed is being challenged. If Powell is removed, it may trigger the depreciation of the US dollar. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks. Without major events, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will fluctuate between 7.15 - 7.20 [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index fluctuated strongly yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.21%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 450.29 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: China - US economic and trade talks began in Stockholm. The child - rearing subsidy policy will be implemented from January 1, 2025, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year [3]. - **Core Logic**: The market has digested last week's positive news. The child - rearing subsidy policy is expected to drive the stock index up. The outcome of the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting this week will affect the stock index [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bond futures opened higher, then fell and rose again, closing sharply higher. The central bank net injected 32.51 billion yuan. The capital price improved, with DR001 at around 1.45% and GC001 at around 1.35% [4]. - **Important Information**: A national industrial conference proposed to expand domestic demand and promote industrial development [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: The market is sentiment - driven. Although the bond price has recovered, there are still risks. Pay attention to key events this week [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The precious metal market was weak on Monday. COMEX gold 2508 fell 0.65% to $3,314 per ounce, and silver 2509 fell 0.09% to $38.33 per ounce. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility of London gold may increase. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [10][11][12]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper index fell slightly on Monday. The short - term price may decline as the anti - involution fever subsides. Pay attention to macro events this week [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina may experience high - volatility trading, and investors can consider inter - month arbitrage; casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference changes [13][14]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc main contract fell 1.05% on the previous trading day. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is appropriate to short on rallies [16]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 1.5%, and the stainless steel main contract fell 0.73%. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. Focus on the callback of nickel - iron and the recovery of nickel salt demand [17]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin index fell slightly on Monday. The short - term price may decline as the anti - involution fever fades. Pay attention to macro events in late July [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures limit - down on Monday. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. Pay attention to the situation of mines and important meetings this week [19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell sharply on Monday. The "anti - involution" varieties have corrected. There is support at the bottom. Pay attention to the July meetings [20][21]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead main contract fell 0.24% on the previous trading day. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Wait for the peak season and changes in macro and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price fell sharply during the day yesterday and stabilized at night. The upward trend may not end. Pay attention to actual demand, tariff policies, and the implementation of anti - involution policies [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by non - fundamental factors. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but the volatility may increase near the meeting [23][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell sharply. The fourth round of price increases has been implemented. The market may return to rationality, and further upward movement requires super - expected macro policies [25][26][27]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys rose due to policy expectations and coal - price support. The short - term risk of chasing high is high. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: International crude oil futures rebounded slightly overnight. The price increase was driven by the macro - positive sentiment of the US - EU trade agreement and geopolitical risks [29][30]. - **PX - PTA**: PX - PTA has been oscillating strongly recently. The supply of PX may increase in August. PTA may reduce production to support prices. It is recommended to expand the TA processing fee on dips [30][31]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The price of MEG has been strong recently, and the supply has increased. It is recommended to wait and see before the implementation of anti - involution policies. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [32][33]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is macro - driven, and it is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **PP**: The supply - demand pressure of PP is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to downstream demand and macro policies [35][36]. - **PE**: The short - term pressure of PE is large, but the downward space is limited. The demand is expected to pick up in the future [37][38][39]. - **PVC**: The anti - involution sentiment of PVC is unstable. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [39][40]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased. The short - term market is affected by macro emotions. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - **Styrene**: The supply of styrene is expected to increase and the demand to decrease in August. The short - term market is affected by macro emotions. It is recommended to wait and see after important macro meetings this week [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of fuel oil has improved, and the demand has rebounded. The short - term drive is downward, and the market remains weak [44]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, and the demand is slightly improved. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Asphalt**: The supply of asphalt has decreased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is in a shock pattern, and the peak season is expected in the long term. Pay attention to the implementation of anti - involution policies [44][45]. - **Urea**: The price of urea has been weak recently. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to cost fluctuations and policy implementation [46]. - **Glass**: The supply of glass has slightly increased, and the demand is in a weak balance. The market will continue to game between reality and expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and the approach of the delivery logic [47]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The futures price of live pigs fell 1.81%. The supply is high, and the demand is general. It is recommended to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [50]. - **Oilseeds**: The price of US soybeans is weak, and the domestic soybean meal price has declined. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant in the short term, and there may be a supply gap after December. Pay attention to China - US trade negotiations [51].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 29, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Copper prices recently rose and then fell. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and increased copper demand expectations from Yajiang Hydropower Station construction. However, their short - term impacts on copper are limited. Downstream anti - involution is more negative than positive for demand, and the hydropower station's early - stage copper demand is low. The increase in copper prices seems to be a passive rise due to capital overflow from other sectors. Short - term copper prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution hype fades. This week is a macro super - week with significant events that will cause large copper price fluctuations [3] Key Points by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of CU2509C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main Futures Contracts at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, low LME inventory levels, low - hovering US dollar index, and anti - involution benefiting the non - ferrous metals sector [4][7] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [7] Copper Futures Data - **Shanghai Copper Main**: Price is 79,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change [6] - **Shanghai Copper Continuous 1**: Price is 79,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (-0.32%) [8] - **Shanghai Copper Continuous 3**: Price is 7,8960 yuan/ton, with no daily change [8] - **LME Copper 3M**: Price is 9,762.5 dollars/ton, down 33.5 dollars (-0.34%) [8] - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The ratio is 8.12, up 0.06 (0.74%) [8] Copper Spot Data - **Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper**: Price is 79,075 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan (-0.47%) [10] - **Shanghai Wumaotrade**: Price is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan (-0.55%) [10] - **Guangdong Nanchu**: Price is 79,010 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan (-0.47%) [10] - **Yangtze Non - ferrous**: Price is 79,270 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan (-0.46%) [10] Copper Scrap Spread - **Current Scrap Spread (Tax - included)**: Price is 959.89 yuan/ton, up 119.15 yuan (14.17%) [12] - **Reasonable Scrap Spread (Tax - included)**: Price is 1,490.45 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.13%) [12] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Copper Warehouse Receipts**: Total is 17,832 tons, up 1,699 tons (10.53%) [15] - **LME Copper Inventory**: Total is 127,400 tons, down 1,075 tons (-0.84%) [17] - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: Total is 250,819 tons, up 7,456 tons (3.06%) [20] Copper Import and Processing - **Copper Import Profit and Loss**: Price is - 341.58 yuan/ton, up 140.92 yuan (-29.21%) [21] - **Copper Concentrate TC**: Price is - 42.75 dollars/ton, with no change [21]

南华贵金属日报: 收低位十字形 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月29日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属市场弱势整理，伦敦金银皆收低位十字形，美指大涨，10Y美债收益率走升利空贵金属估值。周 边美股偏强，欧股下跌，中国股市震荡，比特币震荡，原油上涨，南华有色金属指数下跌。最终COMEX黄金 2508合约收报3314美元/盎司，-0.65%；美白银2509合约收报于38.33美元/盎司，-0.09%。 SHFE黄金 2510主力合约774.78元/克，-0.33%；SHFE白银2510合约收9212元/千克，-1.71%。欧美虽达成贸易协 议，但其中欧盟的妥协被解读为将损害欧洲经济，引发欧元大跌美指大涨。今日重点关注中美7月27日至30 日在瑞典的经贸会谈。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 降息预期略波动。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为96.9%，降息25个 基点的概率为3.1%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为35.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为62.6%，累计降 息50个基点的概率为2.0%；美联储10月维持利率不变的 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 29, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The recent rise in tin prices is mainly due to the boost of the non - ferrous metal sector from anti - involution, with little change in its own fundamentals. Given the obvious oligopoly situation in the upstream of tin and its suppression of the downstream, the price increase is understandable. In the short term, as the anti - involution hype fades, tin prices may decline slightly. Investors should also pay attention to the impact of various macro events in the last week of July on tin prices [3]. Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,880 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of China - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, lower - than - expected复产 in Myanmar, and anti - involution benefiting the entire non - ferrous metal sector [4]. Bearish Factors - Fluctuations in tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5]. Futures and Spot Market Data Tin Futures - The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous first, and continuous third contracts are 267,880 yuan/ton, 267,880 yuan/ton, and 267,960 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME Tin 3M price is 33,670 US dollars/ton, down 470 US dollars (-1.38%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.94, up 0.08 (1.02%) [6]. Tin Spot - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, 60A solder bar, 63A solder bar, and lead - free solder are 268,800 yuan/ton, 700 yuan/ton, 256,800 yuan/ton, 260,800 yuan/ton, 174,750 yuan/ton, 182,250 yuan/ton, and 274,750 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1,600 yuan/ton (0.6%), 200 yuan/ton (40%), 1,600 yuan/ton (0.63%), 1,600 yuan/ton (0.62%), 1,000 yuan/ton (0.58%), 1,000 yuan/ton (0.55%), and 1,500 yuan/ton (0.55%) respectively [9]. Inventory Data - The latest total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,369 tons, up 244 tons (3.42%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,771 tons, up 135 tons (2.91%), and in Shanghai is 1,717 tons, up 109 tons (6.78%). The total LME tin inventory is 1,740 tons, up 50 tons (2.96%) [18]. Import and Processing Data - The tin import profit and loss is - 19,074.74 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,411.52 yuan (-11.22%). The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [19].