Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market situation of logs has a new balance, being both offensive and defensive [5]. - The price of lg2509 has increased, and the delivery product is 6 - meter medium A at that time, with its price rising due to the increase in import cost [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over 3 years [2]. Log Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short lg2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy lg2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. Core Contradictions - The market had no obvious driving force, but a large positive line changed the situation [3]. Price - related Analysis - The price of 6 - meter medium A at that time is related to the import cost, which has increased. The current cheap spot has hedging profits for the 07 contract, not the 09 contract. The cheap spot can be delivered to the 09 contract, but the additional cost is high [4]. Factors Affecting Prices - **Positive Factors**: Traders have a willingness to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses, the import cost continues to rise, and the overall sentiment of commodities has improved [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The outflow of delivery products from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price, and the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [9]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 169 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 4 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [11]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, 2025, the port inventory in China was 322 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,894,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,115,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,089 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.6% [11]. - **Demand**: As of July 11, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 5.88 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 22.0%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 3.53 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 1.85 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [11]. - **Profit**: As of July 18, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, and the spruce import profit was - 42 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [11].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The copper market's fundamentals remain stable. There are both利多 and利空 factors.利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies and a decrease in LME inventory levels, while利空 factors involve the volatility of tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariff policies, and the Fed maintaining high interest rates [3][4][5] Detailed Summary by Section Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 77,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.99%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 13.8% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 77,840 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract is 77,850 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan (-0.15%); the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract is 77,790 yuan/ton with no change; the LME Copper 3M is 9,637 dollars/ton, down 20.5 dollars (-0.21%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, up 0.02 (0.25%) [7] - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 78,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (0.08%); Shanghai Wumao is 78,040 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (-0.08%); Guangdong Nanchu is 77,990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (-0.05%); Yangtze Non - ferrous is 78,120 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan (-0.09%) [9] Copper Inventory Data - **SHFE Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 50,242 tons, up 109 tons (0.22%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 10,236 tons with no change [15] - **LME Copper Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 122,150 tons, up 1,150 tons (0.95%); the European inventory is 31,150 tons, down 150 tons (-0.48%); the Asian inventory is 89,850 tons, up 10,675 tons (13.48%); the North American inventory is 0 tons [17] - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 239,435 tons, up 10,781 tons (4.71%); the registered warehouse receipts are 107,011 tons, down 6,846 tons (-1%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 132,424 tons, up 2,256 tons (1.73%) [19] Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 1.55 yuan/ton, up 219.72 yuan (-99.3%); the copper concentrate TC is - 43.17 dollars/ton, up 0.08 dollars (-0.18%) [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable, with both positive and negative factors present. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and the slower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the potential recurrence of tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 261,920 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.31%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 25.9% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2509P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Tin Futures and Spot Data 3.2.1 Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 261,920 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 262,130 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 262,120 yuan/ton, both with no daily change. The LME Tin 3M price is 32,990 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars or 0.81%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.99, up 0.03 or 0.38% [5] 3.2.2 Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 3,100 yuan or 1.17%. The 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 25%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 251,600 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan or 0.55%. The price of 60% tin concentrate is 255,600 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan or 0.54%. The price of 60A solder bars in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 171,250 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan or 0.58%. The price of 63A solder bars in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 178,750 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan or 0.56%. The price of lead - free solder is 269,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan or 0.55% [8][11] 3.3 Tin Import and Processing - The tin import profit and loss is - 15,147.4 yuan/ton, up 1,291.16 yuan or - 7.85%. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [13] 3.4 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,777 tons, down 70 tons or 1.02%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,428 tons, down 32 tons or 0.72%. The warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,458 tons, down 38 tons or 2.54%. The total LME tin inventory is 2,035 tons, up 55 tons or 2.78% [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, the fluctuation of London gold continues to narrow. Attention should be paid to the support at the 3300 level and the resistance at 3380, as well as the short - term direction selection. The support for London silver is around 37.3, and the resistance is 38.4. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market saw gold and silver oscillating, while platinum and palladium had significant gains and both reached new recent highs. The US dollar index, after a continuous rebound, is facing key resistances at 99 and 100. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is approaching the 4.5% watershed. The surrounding US stocks rose, Bitcoin oscillated, crude oil oscillated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index rose. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3345.4 per ounce, down 0.41%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.435 per ounce, up 0.83%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 776.28 yuan per gram, down 0.03%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9166 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07%. US economic data briefly triggered hawkish concerns from the Fed, causing a decline in precious metals prices during the session, but they quickly recovered and rose [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 46.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.3%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 23.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 26.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 0.7%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 2.29 tons to 948.5 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 124.34 tons to 14694.95 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4.3 tons to 1217.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons as of the week ending July 11 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Attention should be paid to the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the evening [3]. 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, SPDR gold position, and SLV silver position [16][17]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.4% today [1][2] - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fell by - 0.13%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The Nanhua Black Index had the largest increase of 1.23%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the smallest increase of 0.03% [1][2] - Among the theme indices, only the Energy Index fell by - 0.14%, while the rest of the theme indices rose. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.54%, and the Petrochemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.12% [1][2] - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the plywood index had the largest increase of 4.14%, and the fiberboard index had the largest decrease of - 1.36% [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Performance - Sector Indices: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fell - 0.13%, Nanhua Black Index rose 1.23%, Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 0.03% [1][2] - Theme Indices: Energy Index fell - 0.14%, Black Raw Materials Index rose 1.54%, Petrochemical Index rose 0.12% [1][2] - Single - Variety Indices: Plywood rose 4.14%, Fiberboard fell - 1.36% [1][2] Industry Chain and Variety Performance - Energy and Chemical Sector: Synthetic ammonia rose 2.06%, crude oil fell - 0.49%, fuel oil fell - 0.59% [2] - Black Sector: There is a black sector part - variety industry chain schematic diagram, but specific variety performance details are not fully presented [8] - Agricultural Products Sector: Palm oil rose 0.85%, rapeseed oil fell - 0.32%, rapeseed rose 0.06%, Zhangxuanxiang rose 2.49%, live pigs rose 0.36% [9]

Group 1: Report Core View - Overnight crude oil oscillated and closed lower, with weakening momentum and a short - term bearish trend. Despite a temporary rebound due to improved risk appetite in the financial market, the overall tone is turning weak. Without new positive factors, there is a risk of further price decline [3] - Although it is the peak demand season from July to August, demand in China and the US has reached its peak with limited growth space and will face a seasonal decline, which is unfavorable for bulls [3] - EIA data shows that the operating rate and processing volume of US refineries are at their peak, and the demand for major oil products such as gasoline is weak, indicating that the peak - season logic may be over [3] - Global inventories are increasing, and the supply - demand balance is relatively stable. With OPEC+ increasing production and a decline in US demand after September, the fundamentals will weaken [3] - Geopolitical risks can only cause short - term disturbances, and there is a risk of a restart of the tariff war in trade negotiations [3] - The low inventory in the US is due to active destocking, and increased exports are squeezing OPEC+ market share, which may intensify future market competition [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - For the week ending July 11, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels (expected - 0.552 million barrels, previous value + 7.07 million barrels), strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 0.3 million barrels (previous value + 0.238 million barrels), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.213 million barrels (previous value + 0.464 million barrels), gasoline inventory increased by 3.399 million barrels (expected - 0.952 million barrels, previous value - 2.658 million barrels), and refined oil inventory increased by 4.173 million barrels (expected + 0.199 million barrels, previous value - 0.825 million barrels) [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.366 million barrels per day from the previous week, and crude oil exports increased by 0.761 million barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day [4] - The refinery operating rate was 93.9% (expected 94.5%, previous value 94.7%) [4] Group 3: EIA Weekly Data Review - The EIA data update showed a mixed situation, with an increase in transportation fuel inventory being more bearish, except for fuel oil whose inventory continued to hit multi - year lows [5] - US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels in a single week and is slightly below the 5 - year average. Refinery throughput decreased by 150,000 barrels per day, consistent with the 2024 seasonal normal level [5] - Fuel oil inventory decreased by 700,000 barrels, 27% lower than the 5 - year range; aviation fuel output remained high, driving a 570,000 - barrel increase in inventory in a single week [5] - As transportation fuel inventory continues to accumulate, the recent upward trend in refining profit margins along the US Gulf Coast may end, and gasoline and diesel prices may decline from current highs [6] Group 4: Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - Brent crude oil M + 2 was at $68.52 on July 16, down $0.19 from the previous day and $1.67 from the previous week [7] - WTI crude oil M + 2 was at $65.19 on July 16, down $0.18 from the previous day and $1.78 from the previous week [7] - SC crude oil M + 2 was at 504.7 yuan on July 16, down 2.3 yuan from the previous day and 6.3 yuan from the previous week [7] - Dubai crude oil M + 2 was at $66.89 on July 16, down $0.23 from the previous day and $1.35 from the previous week [7] - Oman crude oil M + 2 was at $69.99 on July 16, down $0.34 from the previous day and $1.72 from the previous week [7] - Murban crude oil M + 2 was at $69.81 on July 16, down $0.29 from the previous day and $1.68 from the previous week [7] - EFS spread M + 2 was at $1.63 on July 16, up $0.04 from the previous day and down $0.32 from the previous week [7] - Brent monthly spread (M + 2 - M + 3) was at $0.97 on July 16, up $0.04 from the previous day and down $0.18 from the previous week [7] - Oman monthly spread (M + 2 - M - 3) was at $1.63 on July 16, down $0.26 from the previous day and down $0.31 from the previous week [7] - Dubai monthly spread (M + 1 - M + 2) was at $0.82 on July 16, down $0.08 from the previous day and down $0.21 from the previous week [7] - SC monthly spread (M + 1 - M + 2) was at 10.2 yuan on July 16, down 2.7 yuan from the previous day and up 5.8 yuan from the previous week [7] - SC - Dubai (M + 2) was at $3.6658 on July 16, up $0.0699 from the previous day and up $2.1228 from the previous week [7] - SC - Oman (M + 2) was at $0.6058 on July 16, up $0.0599 from the previous day and up $2.6028 from the previous week [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current import quota policy has not been finalized. Supported by post - pricing by textile enterprises and low inventory, domestic cotton prices are showing a strong trend. The 09 contract's open interest has increased significantly, and the 9 - 1 spread continues the positive spread trend. In the short term, cotton prices may be strong due to capital inflows, but the pressure of downstream finished - product inventory in the off - season may limit the upside. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and adjustments to the China - US trade agreement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be between 13,600 and 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0681 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0986 [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% ratio to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% ratio to reduce procurement costs and lock in buying prices [3]. Core Contradictions - The uncertainty of import quota policies, the support from post - pricing and low inventory, and the pressure from off - season demand and downstream inventory are the main factors affecting cotton prices. The short - term trend may be strong, but the upside is limited [4]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and the reserve cotton has not been sold. The inventory of Xinjiang cotton is decreasing rapidly, and the spot basis is firm. The market is expected to be in a tight - balance state at the end of the year [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downstream is in the off - season, with lower load in spinning and weaving factories, low raw - material procurement enthusiasm, and increasing finished - product inventory. The high temperature in Xinjiang has accelerated the growth of new cotton, and the overall growth is good, which is optimistic for the new - year's output [5]. Futures Price and Spread - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of cotton 01, 05, 09 are 13,960, 13,925, 14,250 respectively, with daily increases of 95, 90, 260 and corresponding increases of 0.69%, 0.65%, 1.86%. The closing prices of棉纱 01, 05, 09 are 20,285, 0, 20,430 respectively, with daily increases of 150, - 20060, 250 and corresponding increases of 0.74%, - 100%, 1.24% [5][7]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis is 1104 with a daily decrease of 178. The spreads of cotton 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 are 35, - 325, 290 respectively, with daily changes of 5, - 170, 165. The flower - yarn spread is 6200 with a daily increase of 10. The internal - external cotton spread is 1515 with a daily decrease of 136, and the internal - external yarn spread is - 409 with a daily increase of 180 [8]. Cotton Price Index - The prices of CCI 3128B, CCI 2227B, CCI 2129B, FCI Index S, FCI Index M, FCI Index L are 15,354, 13,430, 15,661, 13,951, 13,757, 13,517 respectively, with daily increases of 82, 96, 95, 107, 106, 106 and corresponding increases of 0.54%, 0.72%, 0.61%, 0.77%, 0.78%, 0.79% [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polypropylene (PP) market is currently in a state of weak oscillation. The fundamental situation of PP is under significant supply pressure, but the spot price is relatively firm, and the recent trading volume has improved to some extent. It is expected that the PP market will continue to oscillate in the near future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.17% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.1% [1] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - For companies with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell the PP2509C7200 call option with a 50% hedging ratio at a premium range of 20 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [1] Procurement Management - For companies with low regular procurement inventory looking to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6900 - 7000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell the PP2509P6900 put option with a 75% hedging ratio at a premium range of 30 - 70 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1] Core Contradictions - The PP market is facing great supply pressure. Multiple plants were put into operation in the middle of the year, and the PP output is at a historical high even with a high rate of plant maintenance. Although the operating rate of some PDH plants has declined recently, it is expected to rise again due to the recovery of PDH profits, leading to an increase in supply. On the other hand, the spot price of PP is relatively firm, and the trading volume has improved, which supports the market. Therefore, it is difficult for the PP market to show a trending movement and is expected to oscillate in the near future [2] Bullish Factors - The inventory is at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with improved trading volume [3] Bearish Factors - Two plants in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in August. Multiple plants have been or will be put into operation from June to August, which will significantly increase PP production capacity. The recovery of PDH profits will lead to the return of marginal plants [4] Polypropylene Daily Report Table Futures Prices and Spreads - The basis of the polypropylene main contract on July 17, 2025, was 40 yuan/ton, a daily change of - 17 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 32 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts also showed certain daily and weekly changes, as did the spreads between different contracts [1][5][7] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different degrees of decline on July 17, 2025, compared with previous days, and the regional spreads also changed [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products also showed different degrees of change on July 17, 2025, compared with previous days [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - The Brent crude oil price remained stable, while the US propane price decreased. The prices of Northwest coal, East China methanol, and the processing profits of different PP production methods also showed various changes [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The stock index showed strong performance today. The TMT sector led the gains due to positive news from the founder of NVIDIA at the Third Chain Expo, and the significant decline of GC001 indicated ample market liquidity, leading to better performance of small and medium - cap stock indices. The spot market rose with increased trading volume, and the four major index futures showed a significant convergence of discounts, suggesting improved market sentiment. It is expected that the phased adjustment is over, and the overall index trend will return to an upward trend. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions and wait and see [6] Group 3: Market Review - Today, the stock index was strong, with small and medium - cap stock indices outperforming large - cap ones. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 973.31 billion yuan, and all index futures rose with increased trading volume [4] Group 4: Important Information - The US PPI was flat month - on - month in June, and the May data was revised up to a 0.3% increase, with a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, the mildest annual increase since last September. There were reports that Trump drafted a letter to fire Powell, but Trump denied the dismissal rumor while suggesting that there could be justifiable reasons. NVIDIA founder and CEO Huang Renxun attended the Third Chain Expo and said that the next wave of AI will be robot systems, and in the next decade, factories will be driven by software and AI [5] Group 5: Futures Market Observation - The intraday gains of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 0.93%, 0.39%, 1.33%, and 1.42% respectively. The trading volumes were 10.5631 million lots, 5.2058 million lots, 9.9016 million lots, and 19.597 million lots respectively, with changes of 0.5367 million lots, 0.2572 million lots, - 0.1184 million lots, and - 0.1921 million lots compared to the previous period. The open interests were 26.3172 million lots, 9.4545 million lots, 22.3761 million lots, and 33.1365 million lots respectively [7] Group 6: Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 2.20. The trading volume of the two markets was 15393.69 billion yuan, an increase of 973.31 billion yuan compared to the previous period [8]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - PE currently has a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, with the futures market showing a transition from a back structure to a contango structure. The current weak spot market is due to upstream price cuts, but the supply is expected to contract with limited new capacity and ongoing maintenance, and the demand growth rate remains above 10%. If the current demand growth rate is maintained, the PE supply - demand structure is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Attention should be paid to the spot market for the L09 contract pressure to be released [3] Key Points from Different Sections Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7100 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 16.7% [2] Hedging Strategies - For inventory management to prevent inventory depreciation, short L2509 futures with a 25% ratio at 7250 - 7300, and sell L2509C7400 call options with a 50% ratio at 20 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs - For inventory management to prevent price increases in procurement, buy L2509 futures with a 50% ratio at 7100 - 7150, and sell L2509P7100 put options with a 75% ratio at 40 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2] Core Contradictions - The polyolefin market has been in a weak oscillation recently. PE spot has been weak with upstream price cuts and a significant decline in basis. However, from a fundamental perspective, supply is expected to contract due to limited new capacity and maintenance, and demand growth is over 10%, which may lead to a tight - balance state [3] Bullish Factors - PE devices are in a seasonal maintenance period until July - Some full - density devices have switched production, reducing LLDPE supply pressure, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the additional supply - The Israel - Iran conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4] Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into production in the middle of the year - Upstream price cuts have weakened the spot price support [5] Market Data - Futures prices, spreads, spot prices, regional spreads, non - standard and standard product spreads, upstream prices, and processing profits are presented in the report, showing daily and weekly changes [6][8]