Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Fundamentally, the near - term pure benzene surplus pattern remains unchanged, but downstream new production news strengthens the expectation of improved future demand. Styrene ports have significantly accumulated inventory, with large traders starting to sell near - month goods this week, causing the near - month basis to weaken rapidly. Also, there have been frequent news of styrene plant overhauls this week, disturbing market sentiment. Against the backdrop of weakening crude oil, both pure benzene and styrene futures show a weakening and oscillating trend [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price forecast for pure benzene is 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene is 6900 - 7500 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and concerns about styrene price decline, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7350 yuan/ton and sell call options (EB2509C7500) with a 50% ratio at 60 - 90 yuan [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement standing inventory, to prevent cost increases from styrene price hikes, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton and sell put options (EB2509P7100) with a 75% ratio at 90 - 120 yuan [3]. 3.2 Market News and Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There were market rumors yesterday that the POSM unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical had a malfunction, resulting in a loss of 10,000 tons of styrene production. Jieyang Petrochemical's styrene plant will start an overhaul at the end of August, expected to last for half a month [5]. - **Negative Factors**: As of July 14, 2025, the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports was 138,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons or 24.22% from the previous period. This week, styrene inventory has significantly increased, and large industrial traders have started to sell near - month goods, improving near - end liquidity. Crude oil prices have been oscillating weakly this week, weakening cost support. The latest production schedules of three major white - goods have been significantly revised down compared to the previous period, and the terminal consumption demand for styrene in the third quarter is pessimistically expected [6][8]. 3.3 Basis and Spread Changes - **Pure Benzene Basis**: On July 17, 2025, the basis of East China - BZ03 was - 202 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan from the previous day), East China - BZ04 was - 188 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan), East China - BZ05 was - 200 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan), and East China - BZ06 was - 195 yuan/ton [9]. - **Styrene Basis**: On July 17, 2025, the basis of East China - EB07 was 260 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), East China - EB08 was 236 yuan/ton (up 59 yuan), East China - EB09 was 299 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan), and East China - EB10 was 353 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industry Chain Spreads**: Various spreads in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain have changed. For example, the styrene spot - pure benzene spot spread decreased by 85 yuan/ton to 1450 yuan/ton [9]. 3.4 Industry Chain Price Changes - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: On July 17, 2025, the price of Brent crude oil was 68.71 US dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of some related products such as naphtha CFR Japan, ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, etc., also showed different degrees of change [10]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in different markets and futures contracts have generally declined. For example, the pure benzene East China market price dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 5920 yuan/ton, and the styrene East China price dropped by 120 yuan/ton to 7400 yuan/ton [11]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices and profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, etc., also showed different trends. For example, the EPS profit in East China increased by 110.4 yuan/ton to 429 yuan/ton [11].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The lithium mining, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price decline cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - mining price loosening - lithium salt price drop again". When the futures rebound, a "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - mining price increase" chain is formed, but it will return to the oversupply fundamentals under weak demand [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will oscillate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will oscillate downward in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical upgrades and increased production [3]. - Strategy suggestions: Pay attention to the long - short spread trading opportunity between LC2509 and LC2511; look for opportunities to short LC2511 at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to oscillate between 63,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.5% and a historical percentile of 28.1% over three years [2]. - **Contract Price and Volume Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 67,960 yuan/ton, up 1,540 yuan (2.32%) from the previous day and 3,780 yuan (5.89%) from the previous week. The trading volume is 826,939 lots, up 348,825 lots (72.96%) from the previous day and 428,917 lots (107.76%) from the previous week. The open interest is 363,676 lots, up 23,058 lots (6.77%) from the previous day and 39,993 lots (12.36%) from the previous week [10]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 month - spread is 880 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan (15.79%) from the previous day and 280 yuan (46.67%) from the previous week; the LC09 - 11 month - spread is 780 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan (34%) from the previous day and 520 yuan (200%) from the previous week; the LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 320 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (33%) from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [13]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,465 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (1.03%) from the previous day and 60 yuan (4.27%) from the previous week. The average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) is 702.5 US dollars/ton, up 7.5 US dollars (1.08%) from the previous day and 32.5 US dollars (4.85%) from the previous week [18]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,300 yuan (2.10%) from the previous week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,300 yuan (2.04%) from the previous week [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 2,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 1,300 yuan (120.37%) from the previous week [23]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 31,345 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate is 27,660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [25]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Lithium Carbonate Basis**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract range from - 400 to 500 yuan/ton, with most remaining unchanged [29]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 10,239 lots, a decrease of 416 lots from the previous day. Some warehouses such as Wugang Wuxi, Jiuling Lithium Industry (Yichun Fengxin), and Jiuling Lithium Industry (Yichun Yifeng) have seen a decrease in warehouse receipts [34]. Cost and Profit The report shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [32].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 17, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Tin Price and Volatility - Latest closing price: 263,960 yuan/ton - Monthly price range forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility: 14.23% - Current volatility historical percentile: 25.7% [2] 2. Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - Situation: High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline - Spot exposure: Long - Strategy: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract (75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton); Sell call options (SN2509C275000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] Raw Material Management - Situation: Low raw material inventory, worried about price increase - Spot exposure: Short - Strategy: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract (50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton); Sell put options (SN2509P245000, 25% when volatility is appropriate) [2] 3. Fundamental News Bullish Factors - Easing of China - US tariff policies - Semiconductor sector still in an expansion cycle - Lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar [3] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy reversals - Inflow of Burmese tin ore into China - Slowdown in the expansion of the semiconductor sector and a shift from the expansion to the contraction cycle [4][5] 4. Tin Futures Market Data (Daily) | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 263,960 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 264,130 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 263,850 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 32,990 | - 270 | - 0.81% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.96 | 0.02 | 0.25% | [5] 5. Tin Spot Market Data (Weekly) | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot | yuan/ton | 261,900 | - 3,100 | - 1.17% | | 1 tin premium | yuan/ton | 500 | 100 | 25% | | 40% tin concentrate | yuan/ton | 251,600 | - 1,400 | - 0.55% | | 60% tin concentrate | yuan/ton | 255,600 | - 1,400 | - 0.54% | | Solder bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 171,250 | - 1,000 | - 0.58% | | Solder bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 178,750 | - 1,000 | - 0.56% | | Lead - free solder | yuan/ton | 269,750 | - 1,500 | - 0.55% | [8][11] 6. Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing Fees (Daily) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin import profit and loss | yuan/ton | - 16,438.56 | 1,162.68 | - 6.61% | | 40% tin ore processing fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% tin ore processing fee | yuan/ton | 10,550 | 0 | 0% | [13] 7. Tin Warehouse Inventory Data SHFE (Daily) | Location | Unit | Latest Quantity | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total tin warehouse receipts | tons | 6,777 | - 70 | - 1.02% | | Tin warehouse receipts in Guangdong | tons | 4,428 | - 32 | - 0.72% | | Tin warehouse receipts in Shanghai | tons | 1,458 | - 38 | - 2.54% | | Total LME tin inventory | tons | 2,035 | 55 | 2.78% | [17]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: July 17, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 77,980 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility: 10.30%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 15.0% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: - Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper Main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton - Sell 25% of call options (CU2509C82000) when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase: - Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper Main - contract futures at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. News and Factors - Fundamental situation: Stable [3] Bullish Factors - Easing of Sino - US tariff policies - Decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations - Global demand reduction due to tariff policies - The Fed keeping interest rates high - The US dollar index hovering at a low level - Increased expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main - contract | yuan/ton | 77,980 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous - 1 | yuan/ton | 77,970 | - 120 | - 0.15% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous - 3 | yuan/ton | 77,900 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,637 | - 20.5 | - 0.21% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.13 | - 0.03 | - 0.37% | [7] Spot Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,060 | 65 | 0.08% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 78,040 | - 60 | - 0.08% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 77,990 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,120 | - 70 | - 0.09% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 95 | - 40 | - 29.63% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 70 | 10 | 16.67% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 55 | - 15 | - 21.43% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 135 | - 10 | - 6.9% | [9] 5. Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread Tax - included | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 784.57 | 240 | 44.07% | | Reasonable scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 1481.25 | 2.4 | 0.16% | | Price advantage | yuan/ton | - 696.68 | 237.6 | - 25.43% | [11] Tax - excluded | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 5425 | 240 | 4.63% | | Reasonable scrap - to - refined spread | yuan/ton | 6121.88 | 16.66 | 0.27% | | Price advantage | yuan/ton | - 696.88 | 223.34 | - 24.27% | [12] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories SHFE Warehouse Receipts | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 50,242 | 109 | 0.22% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | tons | 10,236 | 0 | 0% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | tons | 14,637 | 170 | 1.18% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total duty - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 50,242 | 109 | 0.22% | [15] LME Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | tons | 121,000 | 10,525 | 9.53% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | tons | 31,300 | 0 | 0% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | tons | 79,175 | 850 | 1.09% | | LME copper inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 108,675 | 10,825 | 11.06% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 12,325 | - 300 | - 2.38% | [17] COMEX Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | tons | 239,435 | 10,781 | 4.71% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 107,011 | 6,846 | - 1% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 132,424 | 2,256 | 1.73% | [19] 7. Copper Import Profit and Processing | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | yuan/ton | - 221.27 | - 90.51 | 69.22% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 43.25 | 0 | 0% | [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The mid - term outlook for the bond market is not bearish, and short - term trading should be based on the rhythm of the stock market. The bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation pattern, and short - term trading can buy on dips according to the A - share rhythm while mid - term long positions should be held [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Treasury bond futures continued the narrow - range oscillation pattern, rising at noon and falling in the afternoon due to the strengthening of the stock market. The trading volume of T and TL contracts decreased continuously. In the open market, 90 billion yuan matured today, and the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day pledged repurchase, with a net investment of 360.5 billion yuan [1] News - There were reports that Trump drafted a letter to fire Powell, but Trump denied the dismissal rumor and hinted that there could be justifiable reasons. Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, is the top candidate to succeed Powell, and Trump said he was considering it [2] Market Judgment - During the tax period this week, the central bank has been making large - scale investments, and the DR001 has fallen to around 1.46%, indicating no concerns about the capital side. From the data in June, the economic momentum is weak, and there is still downward pressure in the future. With no negative factors in the fundamentals, the mid - term outlook for the bond market is not bearish. Recently, the main influencing factor is the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. The A - share market has been rising through sector rotation, and the wind all - A index is approaching last October's high. Affected by this, the bond market's volatility has decreased, and the trading volume of active varieties such as T and TL has significantly declined. The short - term bond market is difficult to break out of the oscillation pattern, and short - term trading can buy on dips according to the A - share rhythm while mid - term long positions should be held [3] Data Overview - The data shows the prices, trading volumes, and positions of TS2509, TF2509, T2509, and TL2509 contracts on July 17, 2025, compared with July 16, 2025, and the same period last week. It also includes information on basis, DR001, DR007, and DR014 [4] Graphical Data - There are multiple graphs showing the net basis and basis of T, TL, TS, and TF contracts, 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields, 7Y - 2Y treasury bond spreads, US treasury bond trends, US - China spreads, and exchange - traded fund prices [5][10][13]

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年07月17日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 35.2% | 0.00% | 96.3% | -0.2% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 宽幅震荡 | 45.45% | 2.06% | 85.07% | 3.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 为 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | 导 向 | | | | | | | 库 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来锁定利 润 ...

Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Short-term Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined, Focus on Bottom Support [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the inventory of nickel ore arriving from the Philippines increased, weakening the support for nickel ore. The second-phase nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia in July also decreased, mainly due to weak downstream demand. The intraday transaction price of nickel iron showed a certain stabilization trend, and the latest transactions of iron plants in August increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the subsequent transaction trend. Some large stainless steel manufacturers have entered another production cut cycle. On the spot side, the supply of low-priced resources has decreased, and the futures price has rebounded to some extent. The new energy chain still maintains a production-to-order situation. Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt. If implemented, it will provide some support for the bottom of the nickel price [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20-day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - Inventory management strategies include shorting Shanghai nickel futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, selling call options, etc. [2]. - Procurement management strategies include buying Shanghai nickel forward contracts based on production plans, selling put options, and buying out-of-the-money call options [2]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely positive factors**: The ban on cobalt mines in the Congo continues; Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the US may involve the subsequent trend of the nickel industry chain [4]. - **Likely negative factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off-season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; the contradiction in the nickel iron industry chain deepens, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged; the inventory of pure nickel is high; the seasonal inventory of nickel ore increases, and the bottom support weakens [4][5]. 3. Market Data - **Nickel futures**: The latest prices of Shanghai nickel main contract, continuous contracts 1 - 3, and LME nickel 3M all decreased compared with the previous day, with trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts also showing different degrees of decline [6]. - **Stainless steel futures**: The latest prices of stainless steel main contract and continuous contracts 1 - 3 increased to varying degrees, with trading volume and open interest increasing, and warehouse receipts decreasing slightly [7]. - **Inventory data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel increased by 1,144 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 6 tons, stainless steel social inventory increased by 12.8 tons, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 4,301 tons [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, and coking profits are under pressure. One round of price hikes has started, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rounds. In the short - term, the downstream steel mills are profitable, and the rigid demand for coking coal and coke is supported, with the futures market likely to remain strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and high iron - making output may not be sustainable. Once the macro sentiment fades, the speculative demand release will intensify the resonance decline of the black chain. In terms of operations, it is recommended to focus on spot - futures arbitrage opportunities and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, being cautious about chasing high prices [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 800 - 980, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.17% and a historical percentile of 62.88%. For coke, the price range is 1400 - 1600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.09% and a historical percentile of 48.21% [3]. 2. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1550 - 1600 and 50% when the entry range is 1600 - 1650 [3]. 3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 2086 tons, iron ore decreased by 100 lots, and silicon - manganese decreased by 546 contracts. The inventory of other varieties remained unchanged [3]. 4. Analysis of Core Contradictions - In the short - term, the market is likely to remain strong due to warm macro - atmosphere, tight spot liquidity, and good downstream steel mill profits. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and high iron - making output may not be sustainable. It is recommended to focus on spot - futures arbitrage opportunities and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading [4]. 5. Interpretation of Bullish Factors - Supply - side 2.0 has disturbed market sentiment, and the market has a good bullish atmosphere. Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100 yuan, and it is difficult to reduce iron - making output in July. There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [5]. 6. Interpretation of Bearish Factors - Coal mines in Shanxi have复产 unexpectedly. The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. The shipment of imported coal has increased, and the subsequent arrival pressure at ports will increase [7]. 7. Coking Coal and Coke Futures Price - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the basis of some coking coal and coke varieties has changed, and the coking profit, ore - coke ratio, etc. have also changed slightly [7]. 8. Coking Coal and Coke Spot Price - On July 16, 2025, compared with July 15, 2025, the price of some coking coal and coke varieties has changed, and the import profit of some coal varieties has also changed [8][9].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report suggests that the medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals may be bullish. For the short - term, the volatility of London gold is continuously narrowing, and attention should be paid to the support at the 3300 level and the short - term direction choice. The support level for London silver is around 37.3. The operation strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market was generally volatile. The market fluctuated sharply due to the news that Trump might fire Powell in advance. The US dollar index is facing key resistance at 99 (60 - day moving average) and 100. The 10Y US Treasury yield is approaching the 4.5% watershed, which may have a negative impact on precious metals in the short term. The influence of the US dollar's appreciation on RMB - denominated precious metals is relatively limited. The surrounding US stocks fluctuated slightly higher, Bitcoin rose, crude oil fluctuated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals fluctuated [2]. - COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3354.2 per ounce, up 0.52%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $38.125 per ounce, up 0.04%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract was at 776.66 yuan per gram, down 0.2%; SHFE silver 2510 contract was at 9152 yuan per kilogram, down 0.35% [2]. - Fed's permanent voting member Williams said that the US economy is expected to grow by about 1% this year, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of the year. The overall inflation rate in June may be 2.5%, and the core inflation rate may be 2.75%. Tariffs are in the "initial stage" of affecting the economy and are expected to push up the inflation rate by one percentage point in the remaining time of 2025 and in 2026 [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that from the end of May to the beginning of July, economic activity increased slightly, and the economic outlook was neutral to slightly pessimistic. Only two regions expected economic activity to grow, while other regions expected it to remain flat or decline slightly [2]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut in September has slightly cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 4.1%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 43.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 2.2%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 19.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 31%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 1.3% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 3.15 tons to 950.79 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 36.73 tons to 14819.29 tons. For inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.9 tons to 1212.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 7.3 tons to 1327.2 tons in the week ending July 4 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the US retail sales data and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday evening. At 22:00 on Thursday, Fed Governor Kugler will speak on the housing market and the outlook for the US economy [4]. 4. Price and Inventory Tables - The precious metals' futures and spot price table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, etc. For example, SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 776.66 yuan per gram, down 0.48% [6]. - The inventory and holding table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and holdings, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings. For example, SHFE gold inventory is 28872 kilograms, with no change [14]. 5. Other Market Data - The stock - bond - commodity summary table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US stocks, crude oil, copper, US Treasury yields, etc. For example, the US dollar index is at 98.3222, down 0.31% [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. The nickel ore support weakened due to the increase in the inventory of nickel ore arriving from the Philippines, and the second - stage nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia in July also decreased, mainly affected by weak downstream demand. The transaction price of ferronickel continued to decline, affected by the negative feedback from the stainless - steel industry, and iron plants suffered serious losses. Stainless steel also continued to fluctuate, with cost support weakening, and some large manufacturers entered the production - cut cycle again. The new - energy link still maintained a production - based - on - sales situation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent cooperation between Indonesia and the United States after they reached a tariff agreement [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the continued cobalt - mine ban in Congo, Jinhai's entry into the production - cut cycle, Indonesia's shortening of the nickel - ore quota license period from three years to one year, and potential impacts on the nickel industry chain from the Indonesia - US tariff negotiation. Negative factors include high pure - nickel inventory, stainless steel entering the traditional off - season with slow de - stocking, and deepening contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain with an unchanged oversupply situation [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Shanghai Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2) [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: When the company has future production and procurement needs and is worried about rising raw - material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs in advance on the disk (strategy level 3); sell put options (strategy level 1); buy out - of - the - money call options (strategy level 3) [3]. 3.2. Nickel and Stainless - Steel Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest value of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 120,550 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 120,710 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; the continuous - two contract is 120,820 yuan/ton, up 1.09%; the continuous - three contract is 120,970 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The LME nickel 3M is 15,215 US dollars/ton, up 1.02%. The trading volume is 131,554 lots, and the open interest is 54,128 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,555 tons, up 1.22%. The basis of the main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 77.8% [8]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest value of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The stainless - steel continuous - one contract is 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the continuous - two contract is 12,740 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; the continuous - three contract is 12,735 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The trading volume is 151,703 lots, and the open interest is 100,817 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 110,991 tons, down 0.05%. The basis of the main contract is 375 yuan/ton, up 5.63% [9]. - **Nickel Industry Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,173 tons, an increase of 1,144 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 207,288 tons, an increase of 708 tons; the stainless - steel social inventory is 990.8 tons, an increase of 12.8 tons; the nickel - pig - iron inventory is 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons [10].