1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in the 25/26 crushing seasons in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slower production progress in Brazil currently and a high sugar - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new crushing season output in the overseas market is increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. The profit window for out - of - quota imports in the domestic market is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger, but the rebound strength may be limited [4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5700 - 5900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.88% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0% [3] - **Inventory Management Strategies**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C5900) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the sugar price rises [3] - **Procurement Management Strategies**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5750 - 5780 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SR509P5700) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 15 - 20 to collect premiums and lock in the spot sugar purchase price if the sugar price drops [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 crushing seasons suppresses sugar prices, while the situation in Brazil leads to price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger but has limited rebound potential [4] 3.3利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 5.1406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 614,400 tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. In June alone, sugar sales were 495,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 77,300 tons. Industrial inventory was 1.3244 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,800 tons [5] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects India's ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 crushing season to be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [6] - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixes [6] - As of the first half of May in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (a 20.24% decline). The cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (a 22.68% decline) [6] - In May, the total import of syrup and premixes was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons, the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years [6] - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6] - Trump said that Coca - Cola has agreed to use sugar as a beverage additive again in the United States [8] 3.4利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - In the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but the mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons, with a sugar production rate of 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [9] - Analysis agency JOB expects Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [9] - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 crushing season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [9] - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual, and the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to recover strongly, reaching about 35 million tons [9] - In May, sugar imports were 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 333,100 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window is open [9] 3.5 Sugar Market Data - **Base Difference**: On July 18, 2025, the base differences between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and sugar futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly changes. For example, the Nanning - SR01 base difference was 394, with a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 37 [10] - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and spreads between different sugar futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) were presented. For example, the closing price of SR01 was 5656, with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.48% [11] - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions (Nanning, Liuzhou, etc.) and the price differences between regions were shown. For example, the price in Nanning was 6050, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 10 [12] - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: On July 18, 2025, the quota - within and out - of - quota import prices of sugar from Brazil and Thailand, as well as the price differences between domestic regions and imported sugar, showed daily and weekly changes [13]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月18日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 延续偏强，预计阶段性调整结束 市场回顾 今日股指偏强运行，大盘股指走势强于中小盘股指。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨316.74亿元。期指均放 量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 美国6月零售销售环比增长0.6%，高于市场预期的0.1%，前值为下降0.9%。分析指出，美国6月零售销售 反弹强于预期，部分增长可能反映出受关税影响的部分商品价格上涨。 2. 商务部："十五五"期间将继续减少服务消费领域的限制性措施。 3. 中新社7月17日从中国地质大学获悉，该校联合内蒙古自治区地质调查研究院，在内蒙古白云鄂博矿床主 矿矿段的矿体中部，发现一种新稀土矿物，命名为"钕黄河矿"。 核心观点 今日股指延续偏强运行，两市成交额小幅放量，大盘股指偏强。板块方面，受一则新稀土矿物被发现消息影 响，今日稀土板块领涨。从期货指标来看，由于近月合约今日到期基差变动幅度大增，因此抛开近月合约情 况，今日各品种期指合约基差均上涨，市场情绪持续向好。目前市场无明显利空信息，预计此轮阶段性调整 结束 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Fundamentally, the near - term surplus pattern of pure benzene remains unchanged, but new downstream production news strengthens the expectation of improved future demand for pure benzene. Styrene ports have significantly accumulated inventory, large traders started to sell near - month goods this week, and the near - month basis has weakened rapidly. Also, there have been frequent news of styrene plant overhauls this week, disturbing market sentiment. The pure benzene and styrene futures generally showed a volatile and weakening trend [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price forecast for pure benzene is 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene is 6900 - 7500 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about styrene price drops, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7350 yuan/ton to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. Also, sell call options (EB2509C7500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 90 to collect premiums and reduce capital costs [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (EB2509P7100) with a 75% hedging ratio at 80 - 110 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3] Core Contradiction Analysis - The near - term surplus of pure benzene remains, but future demand improvement is expected. Styrene port inventory has increased, large traders sold near - month goods, and the near - month basis weakened. Frequent plant overhaul news disturbed the market, and the overall trend of the two futures was volatile and weak [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - There was a problem with Shenghong's fluidized bed, resulting in a 30% reduction in reforming and atmospheric - vacuum distillation loads, a decrease of 10,000 tons in pure benzene output and 30,000 tons in PX output, and the planned overhaul will last until the end of the month [5] - There were market rumors this week that the POSM unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical had a malfunction, resulting in a loss of 10,000 tons of styrene, and Jieyang Petrochemical's styrene plant will start an overhaul at the end of August, expected to last for half a month [5] - The prices of coking coal and coke were strong today, providing strong cost - side support [5] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - As of July 14, 2025, the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports was 138,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons or 24.22% from the previous period. Styrene inventory has significantly increased this week, large industrial traders started to sell near - month goods, and near - term liquidity has improved [6] - The styrene downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and downstream factories mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand without the intention to stockpile [6] - The latest production schedules of three major white - goods have been significantly revised down compared to the previous period, and the terminal's consumption demand expectation for the third quarter is pessimistic [8] Basis and Spread Analysis - The daily changes in the pure benzene basis showed a weakening trend, such as the华东 - BZ03 basis changing from - 202 to - 244, a decrease of 42 [8] - The daily changes in the styrene basis also showed a weakening trend, such as the华东 - EB07 basis changing from 140 to 50, a decrease of 90 [8] - The pure benzene - styrene industrial chain spreads showed various changes, for example, the styrene spot - pure benzene spot spread increased from 1450 to 1520 yuan/ton [8] Price Data - Brent crude oil price was 69.65 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down from 70.63 dollars/barrel last week [9] - Among various pure benzene prices, the FOB Korea price was 722 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [9] - Among styrene prices, the EB2507 price was 7350 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [9] - The profits of related products showed different trends, such as the EB non - integrated profit remaining at - 51.4985 yuan/ton, and the EPS profit decreasing from 429 to 329 yuan/ton [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Supported by the macro "anti-involution" theme, the ethylene glycol price is running strongly under supply-side disturbances. Although the demand shows no sign of improvement, the supply side has frequent accidents, leading to a stronger near-term pattern of ethylene glycol, delaying the inventory accumulation expectation again. With low inventory levels, the price remains prone to rise and difficult to fall. Before the macro narrative materializes, it is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Content Summary by Section Polyester Price Range Forecast - **Price Range**: The monthly price ranges are 4000 - 4600 for ethylene glycol, 6400 - 7300 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5700 - 6400 for bottle chips [2]. - **Volatility**: The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 15.94% for ethylene glycol, 21.59% for PX, 19.17% for PTA, and 15.85% for bottle chips. Their historical percentiles (3 - year) are 27.7%, 67.9%, 48.2%, and 47.9% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, the strategies include shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 4400 - 4500, buying put options (EG2509P4250) and selling call options (EG2509C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 10 - 15 and 35 - 60 respectively [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low, to prevent the rise of ethylene glycol price, strategies are to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 4200 - 4250, sell put options (EG2509P4250) with a 75% hedging ratio at 25 - 50 [2]. Core Contradiction Macro "anti - involution" theme supports the strong operation of ethylene glycol price under supply - side disturbances. Demand is weak, but supply - side accidents make the near - term pattern stronger, delaying inventory accumulation and keeping the price easy to rise and hard to fall in the short term [3]. 利多解读 The document does not provide specific content for this part. 利空解读 Long - filament manufacturers are rumored to have a 10% production cut plan, which is expected to be partially implemented, affecting the total polyester load by 1 - 2% [5]. Supply - side News - Satellite Petrochemical's first line restart is postponed from mid - August, reducing the production forecast for August - September [7]. - Three ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a total capacity of 1.7 million tons/year have restart problems due to infrastructure issues, and the restart time is undetermined. The import volume in August is expected to decrease [7]. Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: On July 18, 2025, compared with the previous day and week, prices of various products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol showed different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil was at $69.7/barrel, up $0.1 from the previous day and down $0.7 from the previous week [8]. - **Spread Changes**: Spreads such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, and EG1 - 5 also had corresponding changes. For example, the PX1 - 5 month spread was 52 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day and 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. Processing Fee and Sales Rate - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees of products like gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, and bottle chips showed different degrees of change. For example, the bottle chip processing fee was 377 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day and 63 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Sales Rates**: Sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips increased. For example, the polyester filament sales rate was 58.2%, up 20% from the previous day and 22.9% from the previous week [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the double - coking futures market may continue to fluctuate strongly. The warm macro - atmosphere, speculative demand, and strong rigid demand support the prices. However, in the medium - to - long term, the strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders are declining, and inventory accumulation may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - For trading operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range forecast is 800 - 980, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 32.68%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 63.89% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range forecast is 1400 - 1600, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.33%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 48.97% [3]. Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging tool is J2509, the selling direction is recommended. The hedging ratio is 25% when the entry range is 1550 - 1600 and 50% when the entry range is 1600 - 1650 [3]. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of rebar decreased by 7169 tons to 87431 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1754 tons to 60747 tons, coking coal decreased by 1100 hands to 500 hands, and ferrosilicon manganese decreased by 3441 sheets to 79931 sheets compared with the previous day [3]. - **No Change in Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of iron ore remained at 3000 hands, coke remained at 760 hands, and ferrosilicon remained at 21950 sheets [3]. Core Contradictions - **Short - term Positive Factors**: The warm macro - atmosphere leads to a strong rebound in the double - coking futures market. Speculative demand enters the market, tightening spot liquidity and causing coal enterprises to raise prices. The second round of price increases by coking plants next week is likely to be implemented. Steel mills' demand for coking coal and coke procurement is strong, and both speculative and rigid demand support prices [4]. - **Medium - to - long - term Negative Factors**: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits. High hot - metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders are declining, and inventory accumulation may trigger a negative feedback mechanism [4]. Bullish Interpretations - Supply - side 2.0 disrupts market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a profit per ton of over 100 yuan, and hot - metal production is unlikely to decrease in July. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [4] Bearish Interpretations - Coal mines in Shanxi have复产 unexpectedly. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal is increasing, and the subsequent arrival pressure is rising. [5] Double - Coking Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: There are differences in the cost of coking coal warehouse receipts and basis for different varieties. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 878 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis is - 48.5 yuan/ton. The prices of various coking coal varieties have different daily and weekly changes [5]. - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, there are differences in the cost of coke warehouse receipts and basis for different varieties. The current spot prices of coke in different regions also show certain changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke is 1030 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Related Ratios**: The current values of the coking profit ratio, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio are 73, 0.517, 2.073, and 1.619 respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and the far - month contract prices are expected to receive marginal upward drivers with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.5%. For rapeseed meal, the range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1669 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2664 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about meal price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Trends - **Core Contradictions**: The external market is strong due to Sino - US talks, the domestic market follows positive spread logic, and the rapeseed sector is strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a fourth - quarter vessel - booking gap, and meal prices will inflect. The cost - end US soybeans have limited downside, and far - month prices may rise [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US talks support the US soybean market, bullish sentiment is strong in far - month contracts due to weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Spot - end supply pressure is reflected in the basis, and the market lacks short - selling pressure due to hedging position transfers [6]. - Near - month arrivals are sufficient (11.5 million tons in July, 11 million tons in August, 10 million tons in September), with a gap after December [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, near - month warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are signs of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks, but the market has already priced in this information [6]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: - Soybean meal futures: M01 closed at 3078, up 24 (0.79%); M05 at 2744, up 20 (0.73%); M09 at 3056, up 27 (0.89%) [7]. - Rapeseed meal futures: RM01 at 2394, up 7 (0.29%); RM05 at 2352, up 12 (0.51%); RM09 at 2722, up 3 (0.11%) [7]. - **CBOT and Exchange Rate**: CBOT yellow soybeans were at 1027.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB was at 7.1865, up 0.006 (0.08%) [10]. - **Price Spreads**: - Soybean meal spreads: M01 - 05 was 334, up 4; M05 - 09 was - 312, down 7; M09 - 01 was - 22, up 3 [11]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 was 42, down 5; RM05 - 09 was - 370, up 9; RM09 - 01 was 328, down 4 [11]. - Spot prices and basis: Soybean meal in Rizhao was 2880, up 30, with a basis of - 176, up 3; rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2655, up 22, with a basis of - 64, down 44 [11]. - Spot and futures spreads: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal was 225, up 30; the futures spread was 334, up 24 [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) was 4781.821 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import cost was 3935.15 yuan/ton, up 18.12 [12]. - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) was - 873.261 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import profit was 129.2523 yuan/ton, up 2.8987 [12]. - Canadian rapeseed import profit: The import - on - paper profit was 305, down 80; the import - spot profit was 300, down 74 [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand structure of asphalt shows a weakening trend, with weekly production increasing by 28% year - on - year and demand growing by 10% year - on - year. The inventory structure features factory inventory accumulation and social inventory depletion, and speculative demand is weakening. The basis in Shandong and East China has weakened due to increased开工率, while the crack spread remains high. In the short term, the supply increase exceeds expectations, and demand is in the off - season due to rainfall. The overall fundamentals are weakening month - on - month, and the absolute price shows a volatile trend due to the strong performance of crude oil on the cost side. In the long - term, demand is expected to pick up as construction conditions improve in August, and the peak season is still worth looking forward to. Short - term attention should be paid to the goods circulation situation and the details and authenticity of the fuel oil consumption refund policy in Shandong [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.07% and a historical percentile of 38.62% over 3 years [1] 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton [1] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Asphalt Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: On July 18, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3820 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the South China spot price was 3600 yuan/ton (unchanged, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] - **Basis**: The Shandong spot 09 basis was 165 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 basis was 125 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot 09 basis was 95 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 49 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot 09 basis was - 55 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton day - on - day, down 59 yuan/ton week - on - week) [4] 3.4 Asphalt Crack Spread Data - On July 18, 2025, the Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 161.4216 yuan/barrel (unchanged from the previous day, up 7.7092 yuan/barrel week - on - week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 132.829 yuan/barrel (up 4.6788 yuan/ton day - on - day, up 14.4674 yuan/ton week - on - week) [7] 3.5 Factors Affecting Asphalt Market - **Positive Factors**: Low factory inventory pressure provides a basis for manufacturers to support prices; demand seasonal peak season; low开工率 and the expectation of catch - up construction in the South [3][6] - **Negative Factors**: After the end of maintenance, the output of some refineries recovers; the short - term plum rain season in the South drags down demand; the slowdown of social inventory depletion and the weakening of the basis [6]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.78% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1]. - Among sector indices, all sectors increased, with the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index having the largest increase of 0.88% and the Nanhua Black Index having the smallest increase of 0.15% [1]. - Among theme indices, the Energy Index had the largest increase of 1.46%, the Building Materials Index had the smallest increase of 0.04%, the Coal - based Chemical Index had the largest decline of - 0.09%, and the Black Raw Materials Index had the smallest decline of - 0.01% [1]. - Among single - variety commodity futures indices, the Lithium Carbonate index had the largest increase of 2.94% [1]. 2. Other Information - The calculation method of the contribution degree in the report is the ratio of the daily increase or decrease of a certain variety to the sum of the absolute values of the daily increase or decrease of each variety. Colored data bars represent the daily increase of the variety, and blue data bars represent the daily decrease [4]. - The Nanhua Commodity Index eliminates the price difference when the commodity contract changes months, reflecting the real return of investing in commodities [4].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The mid - term view is not bearish, and short - term trading should follow the stock market rhythm. The bond market currently lacks obvious catalysts and cannot break away from the influence of the stock market in the short term. Mid - line long positions should be held, while short - line long positions need to pay attention to timely profit - taking/stop - loss [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Market Review - Treasury bond futures opened lower in the morning, tried to rebound during the noon as the stock market declined, but the rebound failed in the afternoon due to the strengthening of the stock market, and all closed down. In the open market, 84.7 billion yuan matured today, and the central bank conducted 187.5 billion yuan of 7 - day pledged repurchase, with a net investment of 102.8 billion yuan [1] 2. Intraday News - The EU is reported to be drafting a tariff list on US service industries in preparation for an escalation of the trade war. The US will impose a 93.5% anti - dumping duty on graphite, a key battery material imported from China, and the actual tariff will reach 160% after adding the existing tax rate. The Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF had a hot trading volume on its first day of listing, with the subscription scale increasing by 47.5 billion yuan [2] 3. Market Judgment - The bond market currently lacks obvious catalysts and cannot break away from the influence of the stock market in the short term. The Wind All - A Index will continue to冲击 the high point of last October next week. Since it deviates slightly from the 5 - day moving average, it may adjust slightly early next week, and treasury bonds may have some upward space. However, if the index successfully breaks through, the bond market will continue to be under pressure [3] 4. Data Overview - **Contract Prices and Changes**: TS2509 was at 102.434 (down 0.002 from the previous day), TF2509 at 106.005 (down 0.035), T2509 at 108.81 (down 0.065), and TL2509 at 120.53 (down 0.2) [4] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions were 123,247 hands (down 272), TF contract positions were 206,287 hands (up 1,728), T contract positions were 234,383 hands (up 303), and TL contract positions were 150,008 hands (down 1,073) [4] - **Base Spreads and Changes**: TS base spread (CTD) was - 0.0146 (down 0.0106), TF base spread (CTD) was - 0.014 (down 0.0074), T base spread (CTD) was 0.0204 (up 0.0008), and TL base spread (CTD) was 0.3078 (up 0.081) [4] - **Trading Volumes and Changes**: TS main trading volume was 22,678 hands (down 4,064), TF main trading volume was 44,183 hands (down 4,278), T main trading volume was 51,738 hands (up 6,186), and TL main trading volume was 72,268 hands (up 1,823) [4] - **Repo Rates and Changes**: DR001 was 1.4635% (down 0.0054), DR007 was 1.5223% (down 0.0068), and DR014 was 1.5355% (down 0.0211) [4] - **Repo Trading Volumes**: DR001 trading volume was 2,713.53413 billion yuan (unchanged), DR007 trading volume was 66.49888 billion yuan (unchanged), and DR014 trading volume was 5.13925 billion yuan (unchanged) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market situation of logs has a new balance, being both offensive and defensive [5]. - The price of lg2509 has increased, and the delivery product is 6 - meter medium A at that time, with its price rising due to the increase in import cost [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over 3 years [2]. Log Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short lg2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy lg2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. Core Contradictions - The market had no obvious driving force, but a large positive line changed the situation [3]. Price - related Analysis - The price of 6 - meter medium A at that time is related to the import cost, which has increased. The current cheap spot has hedging profits for the 07 contract, not the 09 contract. The cheap spot can be delivered to the 09 contract, but the additional cost is high [4]. Factors Affecting Prices - **Positive Factors**: Traders have a willingness to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses, the import cost continues to rise, and the overall sentiment of commodities has improved [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The outflow of delivery products from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price, and the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [9]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 169 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 4 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [11]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, 2025, the port inventory in China was 322 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,894,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,115,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,089 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.6% [11]. - **Demand**: As of July 11, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 5.88 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 22.0%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 3.53 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 1.85 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [11]. - **Profit**: As of July 18, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, and the spruce import profit was - 42 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [11].