1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the pattern of medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; it will fluctuate downward in Q4 due to the end of technological upgrades and increased production [3]. - Strategies recommended include LC09 - 11 calendar spread trading, shorting LC2511 at high prices, and selling call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to oscillate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.1% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 25.9% [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan (0.60%); the trading volume was 213,300 lots, down 134,429 lots (- 38.66%); the open interest was 322,535 lots, down 2,753 lots (- 0.85%). For the LC2511 contract, the closing price was 63,340 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan (0.51%); the trading volume was 20,140 lots, down 15,366 lots (- 43.28%); the open interest was 97,999 lots, up 950 lots (0.98%) [9]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC08 - 11 month - spread was 480 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (9.09%); the LC09 - 11 month - spread was 320 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan (23%); the LC11 - 12 month - spread was - 260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (- 13%) [12]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotes**: The average daily prices of various types of lithium ore showed little change, except for the fastmarkets Li₂O:6% lithium ore, which decreased by 2.5 dollars/ton (- 0.37%) [16]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Quotes**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.41%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.4%); the average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 52,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 62,670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 0.08%); the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF for China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.1 dollars/kg, unchanged; the fastmarkets price was 8.05 dollars/kg, down 0.15 dollars/kg (- 1.82%) [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The electrolyte - lithium carbonate spread was 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the electric - hydrogen - electric - carbon spread was 420 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (- 37.31%); the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF for Japan and South Korea and the domestic price was 399.86 yuan/ton, up 26.51 yuan (7.10%) [21]. - **Downstream Quotes**: The prices of various downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showed different degrees of increase, while the prices of some products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte remained unchanged [23][24]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse - receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract showed little change [27]. - **Warehouse - receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts was 15,555 lots, a decrease of 5,481 lots compared to the previous day, with different changes in each warehouse or sub - warehouse [32]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%), as well as the theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends of lithium carbonate [30].

尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/07/07 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2200-2400 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 尿素套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心尿素价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空尿 ...

Report Summary 1. Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2% [3]. - The predicted monthly price range for polypropylene is 6800 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.56% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.2% [3]. - The predicted monthly price range for plastic is 6800 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.24% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about methanol price drops, shorting methanol futures (MA2509, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 2250 - 2350) can lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Buying put options (MA2509P2250, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 15 - 20) can prevent significant price drops, and selling call options (MA2509C2350, 45 - 60) can reduce capital costs [3]. Procurement Management - For low - level procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buying methanol futures (MA2509, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2200 - 2350) can lock in procurement costs [3]. - Selling put options (MA2509P2300, 75% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 25) can earn premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3. Core Contradictions - Inland methanol performs better than port methanol due to recent inland plant maintenance, external purchases by inland CTO plants, and purchases of inland methanol by port MTO plants [4]. - After the anti - involution meeting in the second half of the week, the commodity and financial markets rose, leading to premium transactions in plant auctions [4]. - After the end of the short - squeeze in late June at the port, the external supply is gradually recovering, and the basis is continuously weakening [4]. - Currently, the inventory is low, the port inventory is accumulating slowly, and Iran has suffered actual production losses, but there are significant differences in July shipments and no conclusion on Iran's inventory [4]. - As of the weekend, Iran's plants are gradually recovering, with 3 ships shipped at a decent pace [4]. - In late July, Chengzhi's large plant plans to shut down for 1 - 2 months, and Zhongyuan Ethylene shut down on June 27 for 1 - 2 months [4]. - The forecasted inventory in Taicang in July is around 230,000 tons, and the current high basis in Taicang may lead to a correction later [4]. 4. Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at the port is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, which may lead to an increase in port methanol inventory [5].

南华贵金属日报: 美非农超预期 焦点重转7月9日关税期限 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月7日 【行情回顾】 上周贵金属市场整体仍小涨，尽管降息预期受美国强劲非农就业报告影响降温，引发美债收益率走高，但 美国贸易关税政策不确定性，特别是美经济回归货币财政路径仍削弱美指，并利多贵金属。周四晚间公布的 美国6非农就业报告强于预期，新增就业人数录得14.7万人，预期11万，前值上修0.5万至14.4万人；失业率 录得4.1%，数据意外下降，预期4.3%，前值4.2%。数据后交易员不再押注美联储7月降息，9月降息概率下 降。另外，周二晚间公布的美6月ISM制造业PMI小幅回升至49，高于预期和前值；5月职位空缺数776.9，高 于预期和前值，一定程度削弱降息预期。美国虽与英国、越南达成贸易协议，但与日本、欧盟与印度等主要 经济体谈判仍僵持，且美越协议中携带第三方关税条款。特朗普表示已签署12封贸易信函，计划周一发 出。"大而美"法案已获通过，将美国联邦政府的法定债务上限提高5万亿美元，国会预算办公室（CBO）估 计，这可能会让政府预算赤字未来十 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by macro - sentiment, polyolefins have been oscillating upward recently. Fundamentally, PP shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. From June to August, there are many new PP device commissioning plans, with an expected new production capacity of 2.2 million tons, increasing supply pressure. In July, PP device maintenance will decrease, bringing further supply increments. On the demand side, it is still the off - season for downstream production and sales, and enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand, lacking incremental demand drivers. Therefore, PP faces significant pressure under the current supply - demand pattern. The logic of the expanding L - P spread has certain support, and attention should be paid to the device commissioning progress and changes in Sino - US tariff policies [2] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.10% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 29.7% [1] 3.2 Polypropylene Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell the PP2509C7100 call option with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, enterprises can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6950 - 7000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell the PP2509P7000 put option with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Affected by macro - sentiment, polyolefins oscillate upward. PP has a supply - increasing and demand - weak pattern. New device commissioning from June to August and reduced maintenance in July increase supply, while demand is in the off - season with only rigid - demand replenishment. The expanding L - P spread has support, and attention should be paid to device commissioning progress and tariff policy changes [2] 3.4 Bullish Factors - Polypropylene inventory remains at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with little change in the basis [3] 3.5 Bearish Factors - Yulong Line 4 has entered the commissioning stage. Multiple devices will be commissioned from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. In July, PP device maintenance is expected to decrease, and devices will gradually resume operation. It is the downstream sales off - season, and overall domestic demand is weak due to poor profits this year [4] 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Report Table 3.6.1 Futures Price and Spread - The polypropylene main - contract basis decreased by 46 yuan/ton daily and 67 yuan/ton weekly. PP01 contract price remained unchanged, PP05 contract price increased by 22 yuan/ton weekly, and PP09 contract price decreased by 29 yuan/ton weekly. The PP1 - 5 monthly spread decreased by 22 yuan/ton weekly, the PP5 - 9 monthly spread increased by 84 yuan/ton weekly, and the PP9 - 1 monthly spread decreased by 62 yuan/ton weekly. The L - P spread decreased by 210 yuan/ton daily and 199 yuan/ton weekly [1][5][7] 3.6.2 Spot Price and Regional Spread - In the spot market, prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased. The East - North price difference decreased by 145 yuan/ton daily and 125 yuan/ton weekly, and the East - South price difference increased by 55 yuan/ton daily and 30 yuan/ton weekly [7] 3.6.3 Non - standard and Standard Product Spread - The spreads between various non - standard products and the standard product (拉丝) changed. For example, the spread between homopolymer injection molding and 拉丝 decreased by 655 yuan/ton daily and 600 yuan/ton weekly [7] 3.6.4 Upstream Price and Processing Profit - Brent crude oil price increased by 2.31 dollars/barrel weekly. The US propane price, Northwest coal price, and East China methanol price decreased. The oil - to - PP profit increased by 488.2476 yuan/ton weekly, the coal - to - PP profit decreased by 659.5 yuan/ton daily and 657.25 yuan/ton weekly, the externally - purchased methanol - to - PP profit decreased by 190 yuan/ton daily and 270 yuan/ton weekly, the PDH - to - PP profit decreased by 196.5004 yuan/ton weekly, and the externally - purchased propylene - to - PP profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton weekly [7]

南华贵金属日报: 非农超预期 贵金属分化 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月4日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场金跌银涨。周边资产看，美股、美债收益率、美指皆收涨，比特币、原油、南华有色金属 震荡或微跌。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3336美元/盎司，-0.71%；美白银2509合约收报于37.04美元/ 盎司，+0.85%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报781.28元/克，+0.47%；SHFE白银2508合约收8944元/千 克，+1.83%。数据方面，周四晚间公布的美国6非农就业报告强于预期，新增就业人数录得14.7万人，预期 11万，前值上修0.5万至14.4万人；失业率录得4.1%，数据意外下降，预期4.3%，前值4.2%。数据后交易员 不再押注美联储7月降息，9月降息概率下降。消息面，"大漂亮"法案在美国众议院以四票优势涉险过关， 特朗普将于当地时间7月4日17时签署"大漂亮"法案。 本次"大漂亮"法案将美国联邦政府的法定债务上限 提高5万亿美元，国会预算办公室（CBO）估计，这可能会让政府预算赤字未来十年内增加3.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The performance of treasury bonds is stronger than expected, remaining firm in an environment of rising risk appetite and A-shares, and strongly recovering losses at the end of the session. The main reason is the further loosening of funds. The current market sentiment is positive, but there are still disturbances in risk preference such as the implementation of the Sino-US agreement, and the sustainability of low capital interest rates also needs attention. Maintain the previous view of gradually taking profits at the upper edge of the oscillation range [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Disk Review - Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher, then oscillated downward and turned negative during the session. In the afternoon, they accelerated their decline and then rebounded. At the end of the session, long-term contracts closed slightly lower, while medium and short-term contracts closed higher. In terms of funds, there was a significant improvement. Today, 509.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, and the central bank conducted new operations of 5.72 billion yuan, with a net maturity of more than 452.1 billion yuan. However, the overnight xrepo rate dropped to 1.3% before the market, continuing to decline [1] Intraday News - According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration has cancelled some export license requirements for Chinese chip design software. According to the South China Morning Post, Siemens, Synopsys, and Cadence have all stated that the US government has cancelled export control measures on some Chinese chip design software this Thursday. Three global leading electronic design automation (EDA) software developers have all stated that their relevant products will no longer require special approval for export to China in the future [2] Market Judgment - The performance of treasury bonds is stronger than expected, remaining firm in an environment of rising risk appetite and A-shares, and strongly recovering losses at the end of the session. The main reason is the further loosening of funds. The current market sentiment is positive, but there are still disturbances in risk preference such as the implementation of the Sino-US agreement, and the sustainability of low capital interest rates also needs attention. Maintain the previous view of gradually taking profits at the upper edge of the oscillation range [3] Data Overview - **Contract Price and Position Changes**: TS2509 closed at 102.506, unchanged from the previous day; TF2509 closed at 106.23, down 0.01 from the previous day; T2509 closed at 109.07, down 0.04 from the previous day; TL2509 closed at 121.07, down 0.09 from the previous day. In terms of positions, TS contract positions increased by 211 to 124,622 hands; TF contract positions increased by 747 to 194,961 hands; T contract positions increased by 1,264 to 243,215 hands; TL contract positions decreased by 636 to 145,598 hands [3][4] - **Basis and Trading Volume**: TS basis (CTD) was -0.0329, down 0.0115 from the previous day; TF basis (CTD) was -0.0295, down 0.021 from the previous day; T basis (CTD) was 0.1301, up 0.0704 from the previous day; TL basis (CTD) was 0.3617, down 0.028 from the previous day. In terms of trading volume, TS main contract trading volume was 24,843 hands, down 101 from the previous day; TF main contract trading volume was 51,486 hands, up 5,555 from the previous day; T main contract trading volume was 64,924 hands, up 6,969 from the previous day; TL main contract trading volume was 72,609 hands, up 3,741 from the previous day [4] - **Funding Rates and Trading Volume**: DR001 was 1.3597%, down 0.0076 from the previous day; DR007 was 1.5053%, down 0.0404 from the previous day; DR014 was 1.5693%, down 0.0501 from the previous day. In terms of trading volume, DR001 trading volume was 239.693147 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day; DR007 trading volume was 8.839759 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day; DR014 trading volume was 0.656805 billion yuan, unchanged from the previous day [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Title: Narrow Fluctuation, Lack of Driving Force - Analyst: Song Jipeng [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Core View - The 09 contract rose 0.25% today, added 626 lots, and closed at 792.5. The market is in narrow - range consolidation with a lack of short - term market drivers. Although there is a certain peak - season expectation on the consumption side, the expected increase is limited. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bottom price of the 09 contract has strong short - term support, and one can sell the lg2509P750 contract when the price of lg2509 drops [3][4] Summary by Directory Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 820, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and the current volatility's historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2] Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and one is worried about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 800 - 820 [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and one hopes to purchase according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 750 - 800 [2] Core Contradiction - The 09 contract rose 0.25% and added 626 lots, closing at 792.5. The market is in narrow - range consolidation. On the spot side, driven by the demand for laminated wood, the quotes of large A - grade logs in Shandong and Jiangsu increased, while the prices of medium and small A - grade logs remained unchanged. In the last week of June (June 23 - 29), the total number of departing log ships from New Zealand was 13, the same as the previous period. The number of ships directly bound for China was 10, with a shipping volume of 370,000 JASm³, the same as the previous period but with a volume decrease of 10,000 JASm³ [3] New Zealand Log Market - The AWG quote in New Zealand in June was the same as in May, with the A - grade log quote at 116 New Zealand dollars per JASm³. The estimated arrival price of Chinese ships in July is 113 - 115 US dollars per JASm³, showing a slight increase. The log supply in New Zealand decreased by about 10% due to seasonal factors, corresponding to a seasonal decline in domestic inventory. The New Zealand log market faces difficulties, including the impact of winter climate leading to a seasonal production off - season, continuous oversupply of structural saw - timber, and significant suppression of market demand by high interest rates and credit tightening, resulting in a continuous decline in the start - up rate of residential and commercial construction projects. The average freight for loading a log ship from two ports in the North Island to China is 30 US dollars per JASm³. The weakening US dollar and rising freight rates support the CFR quote. The previous low of the 09 contract has relatively strong support recently [4] 利多解读 - Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; import costs continue to rise; the overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up [8] 利空解读 - The outflow of delivery products from the 07 contract may suppress the spot price; the shipping volume of foreign suppliers continues to increase [8] Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at different ports on July 3, 2025, and gives the calculation formula for the converted basis [6][8][9] Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in May 2025 was 1.69 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the port inventory in China was 3.36 million m³, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. The port inventory in Shandong was 2,011,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,114,500 m³, a week - on - week increase of 4,655 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 47.1% [10] - **Demand**: As of June 27, 2025, the average daily log outbound volume at ports was 65,700 m³, a week - on - week increase of 2,100 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 17.4%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 35,500 m³, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 35.0%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 22,200 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 400 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [10] - **Profit**: As of July 4, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 44 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/m³; the spruce import profit was - 64 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [10] - **Main Spot Prices**: The prices of some main log specifications at ports on July 3, 2025, showed no change compared to the previous period, with varying year - on - year decreases [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price - downward cycle, there is a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - lithium salt price decline again". When the futures rebound, there is a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price hike", but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals and the price will fall again [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: the futures price will rise in a volatile manner at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected demand in the off - season; the futures price will decline in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter due to the end of technical reforms and increased production [3]. - Strategy recommendations: LC09 - 11 positive spread arbitrage; short LC2511 contracts at high prices; sell call options at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Price and Strategy - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to fluctuate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 23.3% [2]. - **Enterprise Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of impairment, 70% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling LC2509 lithium carbonate futures, 30% by selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans, they can buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options to lock in procurement costs [2]. Market Analysis - **Lithium Market Core Contradiction**: The lithium market is facing inventory pressure, slow de - stocking, and a medium - to - long - term supply - demand imbalance. There are two short - term price - movement logics [3]. - **Lithium Market利多因素**: Improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disruptions, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warehouse receipts will boost the futures market price [6]. - **Lithium Market利空因素**: High future lithium ore production expectations, inventory pressure on ore prices, continuous inventory accumulation of lithium ore and lithium salt, and postponed capacity clearance due to technological upgrades [5][7]. Market Data - **Futures Market Data**: - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 64,080 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day; the trading volume is 420,967 lots, down 119,468 lots or 22.11%; the open interest is 334,057 lots, up 8,483 lots or 2.61% [9]. - The closing price of the LC2511 contract is 63,720 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan or 0.25%; the trading volume is 36,817 lots, down 10,160 lots or 21.63%; the open interest is 98,399 lots, up 4,871 lots or 5.21% [9]. - **Lithium Ore Market Data**: The prices of various types of lithium ore, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, have increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,315 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 3.14% [18]. - **Lithium Salt Market Data**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate have increased, while the prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium hydroxide have decreased slightly. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan or 0.75% [21]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spread Data**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remains unchanged; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate has decreased; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea and the domestic market has increased [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 22,880, a decrease of 300 from the previous day [36]. Downstream Market Data - The prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,660 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 0.36% [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the price of protein meal will continue to be constrained by the absolute supply of raw materials, showing a weak range - bound oscillation. With smooth planting of new US soybean crops, there is limited upward driving force for the domestic soybean meal futures. However, the near - term soybean meal futures price has basically squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in the Q3 supply pressure. There is still a gap in Q4 ship purchases. After trading the arrival volume and inventory pressure in Q3, there may be an inflection point in the year. Meanwhile, the continuously low physical inventory of feed mills on the demand side is a potential positive factor. In terms of valuation, the downward space of US soybeans on the cost side is limited. With the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums, the far - term futures price is expected to have marginal upward driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecasts: soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.7%; rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1518 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1792 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short soybean meal futures according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | To prevent rising procurement costs due to rising meal prices, buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2509 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | To prevent losses from excessive imported inventory, short soybean meal futures according to the enterprise's situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - In Q3, the price of protein meal will be constrained by raw material supply, showing a weak range - bound oscillation. With smooth US soybean planting, the upward driving force for domestic soybean meal futures is limited. The near - term price has squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in Q3 supply pressure. There is a Q4 purchase gap, and after trading Q3 arrival and inventory pressure, there may be an inflection point. The low inventory of feed mills is a potential positive factor. The downward space of US soybeans on the cost side is limited, and the far - term price may have upward driving force [4]. 3.4 Bullish Interpretations - After China - US talks, the cost valuation of the external market provides strong support for the far - term futures. - There is strong bullish sentiment for the far - term futures due to weather - related speculation. - Brazilian export premiums support the far - term contract price from the cost side [5]. 3.5 Bearish Interpretations - Supply - side pressure remains the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - term futures through warehouse receipt registration, leading to weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is abundant, oil mill operating rates are rising, and some regions are urging提货. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 11.5 million tons in July and 11 million tons in August. Supply in Q3 is still abundant, and the Q4 gap depends on China - US relations. - The inventory depletion of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream lacks cost - effectiveness in using rapeseed meal. The market's repeated pricing of the WTO's establishment of a panel to investigate China - Canada tariff issues lacks elasticity, and the subsequent trend of rapeseed meal will mainly follow soybean meal, with its own market expected to be weak [6]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3008 | 21 | 0.7% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2715 | 15 | 0.56% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2958 | 14 | 0.48% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2319 | 25 | 1.09% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2327 | 14 | 0.61% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2601 | 23 | 0.89% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1047.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1634 | - 0.0006 | - 0.01% | [9] 3.7 Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads - M01 - 05 spread is 287 with no daily change; RM01 - 05 spread is - 19, down 5. - M05 - 09 spread is - 244, up 7; RM05 - 09 spread is - 265, up 1. - M09 - 01 spread is - 43, down 1; RM09 - 01 spread is 284, up 4. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2860 with no change, and the basis is - 84, down 3. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2512, down 14, and the basis is - 60, down 26. - The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 334, down 20; the futures price spread is 366 with no change [10]. 3.8 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) | 4499.933 | 0 | - 0.0077 | | Brazilian soybean import cost | 3910.2 | 104.51 | 171.66 | | Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 731.6964 | 0 | 14.0279 | | US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) | - 705.563 | 0 | 12.2794 | | Brazilian soybean import profit | 177.4043 | 6.037 | - 0.1748 | | Canadian rapeseed import futures profit | 8 | - 99 | - 155 | | Canadian rapeseed import spot profit | - 2 | - 114 | - 178 | [11]