1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current soda ash production is at a high level with average profits, and it is expected to remain stable at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 production lines of photovoltaic glass to be ignited this week, but it may be postponed due to the weakening market. Under the background of loose supply - demand of soda ash, it is difficult for soda ash enterprises to reduce their high - level inventory, and it is expected that the inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1420 level. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market showed a weak trend, with individual enterprises adjusting prices slightly. The weekly soda ash output was 755,100 tons, a decrease of 500 tons or 0.06% compared with the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 89.44%, a decrease of 0.06% compared with the previous week. The soda ash plant inventory was 1.691 million tons, a decrease of 20,300 tons or 1.19% compared with the previous week. The pending orders of soda ash fluctuated slightly, with individual low - price orders increasing, and some enterprises' orders lasted until the end of the month, maintaining more than 11 days [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - As of April 24, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 89.44%, a decrease of 0.06% compared with the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of ammonia - soda process was 87.12%, a decrease of 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of combined - soda process was 87.12%, an increase of 0.97% compared with the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 14 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons and above was 89.73%, an increase of 0.82% compared with the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's combined - soda process soda ash (double - ton) was 255.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 101.40 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process soda ash was 17.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 78.25 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [11][12][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - Photovoltaic glass production: As of April 24, there were 100 in - production kilns and 449 in - production lines of photovoltaic glass nationwide, with a daily melting capacity of 97,330 tons/day. It is expected that there will be 1 - 2 production lines to be ignited this week, but it may be postponed. Near the May Day holiday, the downstream stocking willingness of photovoltaic glass is not high, and it still mainly purchases based on rigid demand. After the "430" installation rush window closes, the photovoltaic module market will enter an accelerated adjustment period, and the production schedule in May may face downward pressure. The over - capacity pressure brought by the recent large - scale production of photovoltaic glass will continue to suppress price competition. - Float glass production: As of April 24, the weekly production of float glass was 110,580 tons, a decrease of 0.32% compared with the previous week and a decrease of 9.32% compared with the same period last year. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.85%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points compared with the previous week; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.78%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared with the previous week. It is expected that the production will decrease this week [16]. 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of April 24, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.691 million tons, a decrease of 20,300 tons or 1.19% compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 850,500 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 840,500 tons, a decrease of 23,900 tons compared with the previous week [18]. 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of April 25, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in soda ash futures was 734,781, a decrease of 9,978, and the short - position volume was 871,858, an increase of 16,837. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current soda ash production is at a high level with average profits, and it is expected to remain stable at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 production lines of photovoltaic glass to be ignited this week, but it may be postponed due to the weakening market. Under the background of loose supply - demand of soda ash, it is difficult for soda ash enterprises to reduce their high - level inventory, and it is expected that the inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1420 level. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Due to potential reforms in India's vegetable oil import tariffs, slow repair of the inverted spot price spread between soybeans and palm oil, downstream rigid - demand procurement, weak downward - trending basis, poor trading atmosphere, the arrival of the production - increasing season, and a large increase in domestic arrivals in May, the near - term palm oil prices are under pressure. The recommended operation is to short on rallies [2][13][14]. Section Summaries 1. Supply Situation Analysis SPPOMA data shows that from April 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm fresh fruit bunch yield per unit increased by 3.34%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.12%, and palm oil production increased by 3.97%. MPOA data indicates that from April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% compared to the same period last month, with different increases in various regions. Palm oil has entered the production - increasing season, and high - frequency production data shows a continuous increasing trend [6]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis The report does not provide detailed content for this section, only listing the title [8]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis The report only lists relevant chart information about palm oil import cost and profit, without specific content [11]. 4. Market Outlook India may reform its vegetable oil import tariffs, considering raising import tariffs on refined varieties to support domestic refining capacity. The inverted spot price spread between soybeans and palm oil is slowly repairing, downstream maintains rigid - demand procurement, the basis is still weakly downward, and the trading atmosphere is poor. With the arrival of the production - increasing season and a large increase in domestic arrivals in May, near - term prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies [2][13][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is to be bullish with a sideways trend [4] Core Viewpoints - The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, and the market is concerned about the clues of the Fed's interest rate cut. Gold has reached a new high due to the return of risk aversion, while silver's fundamentals are weak and it is likely to follow gold passively. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the factors for going long on silver are increasing. Although the US economic data shows some resilience and the US stocks have rebounded to some extent, the market believes that the US stocks have limited upward momentum without the Fed's interest rate cut. The short - term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is weakening, and it is not an important factor affecting precious metals [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The continuous decline of the US dollar index has supported gold. The market focuses on the US tariff progress, inflation expectations, and the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm. After the panic subsides, the risk - aversion sentiment boosts the gold's bull market. Recently, gold has slightly corrected due to the rebound of US stocks. Silver has insufficient short - term upward momentum, but its long - position momentum will increase if the Fed starts the interest rate cut process [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On April 28, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 90.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 9.7%. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 52.2, a new low since July 2022. The one - year inflation rate expectation was 6.5%, a new high since January 1980. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 222,000. The order of durable goods in March increased by 9.2% month - on - month. The Fed entered a quiet period on Saturday, and the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. Trump's tariff policy has increased the cost of merchants, and the prices of nearly 1,000 commodities on Amazon have risen by nearly 30% on average. The retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023 [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - The US economic data shows that although there is increasing downward pressure, there is still resilience. The consumer confidence index in April reached a new low, but the inflation rate expectation reached a new high. The retail sales in March increased significantly, and the employment data was better than expected. The GDP in the fourth quarter was higher than expected, and inflation was lower than expected [15] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not going smoothly, which increases the uncertainty. Trump signed administrative orders on "reciprocal tariffs", which will impose different levels of tariffs on trading partners. These factors have intensified the safe - haven property of precious metals [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - Affected by the US tariff increase, risk - preference assets such as US stocks, crude oil, and copper have fallen sharply. Although US stocks have rebounded recently, Wall Street is still pessimistic about the future. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, these risk assets may rebound to some extent, but their long - term trends need further observation. Crude oil may move independently of precious metals due to geopolitical factors [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has decreased. The central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The RMB exchange rate is not the main factor affecting precious metals [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Gold may decline during holidays due to the influence of other commodities, but its safe - haven property will strengthen after the short - term liquidity crisis. It is still expected to be bullish, but the upward space is limited. Silver may follow gold's fluctuations, and its sideways characteristics will be more obvious. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the increase of silver's long - position momentum [28]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The pork market is expected to be volatile and bullish. The operation suggestion remains to go long on dips. The supply of live pigs is sufficient, but it's difficult to purchase at low prices due to raw material support and the price - raising intention of group farms. The approaching May Day holiday provides short - term support for terminal stocking, but the consumption support is limited [2][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply Situation Analysis The report mentions the sample enterprise's monthly chart of the number of breeding sows in stock (in ten thousand heads), the weekly chart of the average weight of commercial pigs sold nationwide (in kilograms), and the weight - based inventory structure of commercial pigs (in %). However, specific data analysis is not presented [5][7][11]. 3.2 Demand Situation Analysis The report includes the key slaughter enterprises'开工率 (in %) and the key slaughter enterprises' frozen product storage capacity rate (in %). But no specific data analysis is provided [13][16]. 3.3 Cost - Profit Analysis The report shows the self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit (in yuan per head) and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding (in yuan per head), yet no specific data analysis is given [18][19]. 3.4 Market Outlook The supply side: Farms have a good enthusiasm for slaughter, and the slaughter end has no pressure in purchasing. Due to raw material support, group farms intend to raise prices. Although the supply of live pigs is sufficient, it's difficult to buy at low prices. The demand side: With the approaching of May Day, terminal stocking provides slight support, but the support time is short. It is expected that there will be a little stocking 1 - 2 days before the festival, and the consumption support is average. Overall, the pork market is volatile and bullish, and the operation suggestion is to go long on dips [21].

钢材期货周度报告 2025年04月28日 宏观预期反复 震荡思路对待 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格弱势调整，全国螺纹钢均价环比下 跌15元/吨。本周本周建筑钢材价格偏强运行。截至4月25日，全 国主要城市20mm三级抗震螺纹钢均价3327元/吨，周环比上涨47 元/吨。周五夜盘期钢大幅上涨，27日多数钢厂推涨，市场拉涨 情绪浓厚，现货市场迎来反弹。商家反馈，市场推涨下终端采购 偏谨慎，投机需求表现一般。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，产能释放力度继续增强，铁水产量持续增加，品种产量 也有所上升。需求端：在"买涨不买跌"心态以及节前备货的带 动下，各品种成交呈现了明显上升的态势。成本端：由于铁矿石 价格维持稳定，废钢价格小幅上涨，焦炭价格维持稳定，生产成 本支撑力度继续增强。 投资策略：单边：区间操作 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺 价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyan ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The crude oil market faces many uncertainties. With short - term inventory pressure being relatively low, factors such as ongoing US - China tariff issues, progressing US - Iran negotiations, and the OPEC+ production policy meeting on May 5th will affect the market. Short - term trading is recommended [2][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - SC2506 had a slight rebound. It opened at 489, reached a high of 506, a low of 482, and closed at 496, with a weekly increase of 5.4 or 1.10% [3]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis - **OPEC**: In March, OPEC's overall daily crude oil production was 26.78 million barrels, a decrease of 78,000 barrels per day from February. Iraq, UAE production decreased, while Iran and Kazakhstan production increased. OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day in May, three times the original plan, and will gradually cancel the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut by 2026. However, six countries need to cut production by 378,000 barrels per day in May according to the compensation plan. There are disputes among members regarding production quota compliance, and OPEC+ plans to accelerate production increase, which adds pressure to crude oil supply [5][6][8]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's GDP grew by 3.9%, and its crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In March 2025, production decreased to 8.963 million barrels per day. Russia's 2025 - 2028 oil and gas export revenue forecasts have changed compared to previous expectations. There are talks about a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement, but Russia has doubts about some details [10][11]. - **US**: As of the week ending April 18, US daily crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels, a decrease of 2,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 360,000 barrels from the same period last year. The four - week average daily production was 13.49 million barrels, 3% higher than the same period last year. EIA predicts that US crude oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and then decline. Global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered [12][13]. - **Americas**: OPEC and IEA have both lowered their forecasts for non - OPEC and non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 [20]. - **Inventory**: In December 2024, OECD oil and crude product inventories decreased by 51.35 million barrels from the previous month. As of the week ending April 18, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 4.565 million barrels according to API data, while EIA data showed an increase of 244,000 barrels. Product inventories decreased, indicating a recovery in demand [21]. - **Consumption**: OPEC, IEA, and EIA have all lowered their global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Refinery processing fees are low, and refinery operating rates are at a low level [25][27][29]. - **Geopolitics**: The US has imposed new sanctions on Iran and threatened bombing. Iran's crude oil production and exports are affected. The US and Iran held the third - round indirect negotiations in Muscat, Oman, and Iran is cautiously optimistic about the nuclear - issue negotiations [34][36]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy The short - term inventory pressure of crude oil is not significant, but the market still faces many uncertainties. Short - term trading is recommended [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The economic downward pressure still supports gold, and it is advisable to maintain a slightly bullish view on gold's medium - term high - level oscillation. [2] - Crude oil has short - term inventory pressure, and the market will face multiple factors in the later stage. Short - term trading is recommended. [3] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate mainly due to minor fundamental contradictions and positive macro - sentiment. [5] - Coke is expected to move sideways in the short term as the market sentiment is weak and the cost support is decreasing. [5] - Steel prices may fluctuate up and down repeatedly due to uncertain demand, and the current situation should be treated with an oscillating view. [6] - The price of live pigs is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium - long term, and short - term 09 contracts can wait for a callback to go long. [6] - Palm oil prices will maintain an oscillating pattern, and high - selling and low - buying are recommended. [7] - Silver lacks the power to rise further, and there is unlikely to be a trending market before the Fed cuts interest rates. [8] - The price of soybeans is expected to continue to oscillate strongly. [8] - The bond market will have increased fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect. [9] - The 09 contract of soda ash is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term. [9] - The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [10] - The 09 contract of methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term. [12] - PTA should be traded short - term as it follows crude oil and the demand side is under pressure. [12] - Natural rubber is likely to continue its weak consolidation trend. [13] 3. Summaries by Commodity Gold - Fed officials warned of economic downward risks, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. Gold has support from economic pressure, and its medium - term trend is slightly bullish with high - level oscillation. [2] Crude Oil - The short - term inventory pressure is not significant. The market will be affected by factors such as tariffs, US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, and OPEC+ production in the later stage. Short - term trading is recommended. [3] Iron Ore - The supply is at a neutral level, and the demand has short - term support. The fundamentals have minor contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate mainly due to positive macro - sentiment. [5] Coke - The coke market price is stable. The profit of coke enterprises is low, and the cost support is decreasing. It is expected to move sideways in the short term. [5] Steel - The inventory of steel continues to decline, but the demand sustainability is questionable. Steel prices may fluctuate up and down repeatedly, and an oscillating view is recommended. [6] Live Pigs - The price of live pigs is oscillating narrowly. The terminal demand is average, but the breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract after a callback in the short term and is slightly bullish in the medium - long term. [6] Palm Oil - The external market is rising, and the purchase volume is increasing, but there is a lack of continuous upward momentum. It is recommended to high - sell and low - buy. [7] Silver - US economic data shows some resilience, but the global economic downward pressure is increasing. Silver lacks upward power, and there is no trending market before the Fed cuts interest rates. [8] Soybeans - The market has an environment where prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. The price of domestic soybeans is expected to continue to oscillate strongly. [8] Treasury Bonds - The central bank increases market liquidity, and there is still an expectation of monetary easing. The bond market supply increases, and its fluctuations intensify. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw. [9] Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market is running steadily. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term. [9] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda device is operating at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The downstream demand is weak. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. [10] Methanol - The cost is stable, the supply is high, and the demand is decreasing. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] PTA - The PTA production and polyester industry's start - up rate are increasing, but the demand side is under pressure. It should be traded short - term. [12] Natural Rubber - The supply pressure will become obvious in the later stage, the market support is weak, and it is likely to continue its weak consolidation trend. [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The overall fundamental contradictions of iron ore are not significant. With the easing of overseas trade frictions and market expectations for stimulus policies, iron ore is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to take short - term long positions with a light position [2]. - Economic downward pressure still supports gold. The downside space of gold is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a slightly bullish view on gold's medium - term high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - The supply of coking coal remains relatively stable, and demand is high. The market expects coke prices to continue rising, but terminal inventories are low. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - The cost of steel provides some support, but the lack of sustained demand restricts the rebound of steel prices. With external uncertainties, steel prices may fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - The supply and demand of live pigs are in a continuous game. Short - term prices are adjusted, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The decline of the external market has stopped and rebounded, and the increase in purchases supports the palm oil market. However, the downstream demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. High - selling and low - buying strategies are recommended [5]. - The auction of soybeans by protein factories is active, and the reduction of market surplus grains boosts market confidence. However, auctions may curb rapid price increases in the short term. Soybean prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [6]. - The marginal loosening of the capital side is beneficial to the bond market, but the market still has a wait - and - see attitude towards the fundamentals. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [8]. - Trump's remarks on reducing tariffs on Chinese goods boost risk assets, but the fundamentals of silver are bearish. Before the Fed cuts interest rates, silver is unlikely to have a trending market [8]. - Concerns about the implementation of compensatory production cuts by OPEC + have led to a decline in crude oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The demand for PTA is under pressure, and it follows the fluctuations of crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - The international raw material prices of natural rubber have fallen, and the tire start - up rate has declined. The market support is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak consolidation trend [10]. - The cost of methanol is stable, and the domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. The downstream demand is decreasing, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11][12]. - The downstream demand for soda ash is tepid, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - The supply of caustic soda is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. Summaries by Variety Iron Ore - From April 14 - 20, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,218.8 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons from the previous period. The inventory is slightly lower than the average level since the beginning of the year [2]. Gold - On April 23, local time, the Fed's "Beige Book" showed that economic activity has hardly changed, but there is widespread uncertainty in international trade policies, and the prospects in multiple regions have significantly deteriorated [2]. Coking Coal - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants in the country was 63.01%, an increase of 1.11% from the previous period; the daily average output was 53.44 million tons, a decrease of 1.34 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 271.33 million tons, a decrease of 2.58 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 181.68 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons [4]. Rebar - On April 23, the domestic steel market fluctuated strongly. The ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 50 to 2,990 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,323 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. Live Pigs - On April 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.47, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.43. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.99 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4% from the previous day; the price of eggs was 8.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - From July 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 period were 2.3 million tons, compared with 2.87 million tons in the same period of the previous year. China and India's demand for palm oil may increase due to its continuous discount compared with soybean oil [5]. Soybeans - As of the end of the 16th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 4.251 million tons, an increase of 625,000 tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 3.768 million tons, an increase of 584,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties declined collectively. The overnight variety declined by 8.3 BP to 1.626%; the 7 - day variety declined by 2.6 BP to 1.644%; the 14 - day variety declined by 2.8 BP to 1.772%; the 1 - month variety declined by 0.5 BP to 1.749% [7][8]. Silver - Trump said that the current tariffs on Chinese goods in the US are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced. He also said that he has no intention of firing the Fed Chairman [8]. Crude Oil - The EIA report showed that in the week ending April 18, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US was 244,000 barrels, the gasoline inventory was - 4.476 million barrels, the domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 23.46 million barrels per day, and the EIA crude oil production implied demand data was 19.01 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests in determining oil production levels [9]. PTA - In the week of April 22, the PTA load decreased to 75.4%; the polyester load increased slightly to 93.8%, and the increase in the bottle - chip load made up for the reduction in the production of filament and staple fiber [9]. Rubber - Thailand is gradually transitioning to the tapping season, and production is expected to increase significantly in mid - May. Vietnam's production areas are waiting for precipitation and may start tapping at the end of April. In Hainan, raw material prices have fallen, and private factories have resumed purchasing rubber, with an increase in glue output. In March, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.56, a slight decrease of 3.1% from the previous month, basically the same as the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative output of rubber tires in China was 283 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.4%. The total export volume of Chinese rubber tires was 2.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The methanol operating rate was 83.37%, a weekly decrease of 0.49%. A 250,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yankuang Guojiao was under maintenance for about a week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.25%. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 463,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 122,400 tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 309,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 260 tons; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 302,700 tons, a weekly increase of 28,300 tons [11]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the country was 1,413 yuan/ton, showing a slow downward trend. The soda ash operating rate was 88.9%, an increase of 1%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.42%, unchanged from the previous week. The average price of float glass in the country was 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the country was 65.078 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19% [12]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong both decreased, and the chlor - alkali profit was 302 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 82.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The chlor - alkali plant of Anhui Huasu is expected to resume production on April 26. The weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 420,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.83%. The weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 80%, a decrease of 2%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.2%, a decrease of 5.39% [13].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评—黄金】IMF首席经济学家古睿斯，美元的走软具 有相当广泛的基础。评：近期美元的持续下行，使得市场对黄 金的看涨动能增加，但是黄金在美国关税政策带来的经济下行 及通胀上升的预期已经交易的较为充分，滞胀逻辑交易较为充 分，不可过分看多，黄金短期上方空间有限，美联储降息前注 意把控节奏，关注俄乌冲突等地缘因素。 投资咨询中心 2025年04月23日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 2020 年 11月18 【短评-原油】IMF将2025年全 ...