Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to remain in a mid - term shock pattern, with the stock - bond seesaw being an important influencing factor. The increase in bond supply will be a mid - term negative for the bond market, and the bond market may return to the economic fundamentals and policy trading logic later [2][30]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the May Day holiday, the expected reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut were implemented, and the Sino - US trade tariff negotiation made progress, which repaired market risk appetite. The rise of the stock market pressured the bond market, and the supply of ultra - long - term treasury bonds still affected the bond market, which remained in a shock state [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - In April, China's CPI turned from a 0.4% decline in the previous month to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Core CPI rose by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year. PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [15]. - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [15]. - During the "May Day" holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous. The sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The subsidy applications for car trade - ins exceeded 60,000, driving new car sales of 8.8 billion yuan. Consumers bought 3.56 million units of 12 major categories of household appliances, driving sales of 11.9 billion yuan, and 2.42 million pieces of digital products such as mobile phones, driving sales of 6.4 billion yuan [16]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10th to 11th, achieving important consensus and substantial progress [16]. - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 1.50936 trillion yuan, turning from a 3.3% year - on - year decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase. In March, the profit turned from a 0.3% decline in January - February to a 2.6% increase. Nearly 60% of industries saw profit growth, and the manufacturing industry improved significantly, with a 7.6% profit growth in the first quarter, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points [16]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - After the Two Sessions, various measures to promote consumption were implemented. Although there was no large - scale stimulus policy, detailed policies for the real economy and industrial chain were continuously introduced. The economic data showed a mixed picture, with the consumer market being active during the "May Day" holiday, but the manufacturing PMI declining in April [17]. 3.2 Policy Aspects - In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. At the end of March, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Most money market interest rates declined [20]. 3.3 Capital Aspects - Although the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate and policy interest rate did not change significantly, bond market interest rates and DR007 decreased significantly, indicating a certain degree of loose capital. There was still an expectation of further monetary easing, which would support the bond market. However, due to the partial implementation of monetary easing, the probability of significant monetary easing in the near term was low, and the bond market was still influenced by the stock - bond seesaw logic [21]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspects - The government debt combination in 2025 included a 4% deficit ratio, 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, 500 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to replenish bank capital, 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan of replacement bonds, with the broad deficit ratio reaching 9.8%, a significant increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year. As of March 3rd this year, about 2.1 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, with the issuance significantly accelerating compared to the same period of the previous year [24]. 3.5 Sentiment Aspects - The stock - bond ratio was still at a relatively high level although it had declined from the historical high, indicating that the cost - performance of allocating to the bond market was low. Institutions were more likely to focus on stock market opportunities. The bond market was in a wide - range shock, and its short - term trend was greatly affected by the stock market, but it might return to the economic fundamentals later [27]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the Politburo meeting in April, the bond supply may increase, which is a mid - term negative for the bond market. The bond market will return to the economic fundamentals and policy trading logic, and the stock - bond seesaw will still be an important influencing factor. The bond market may remain in a shock pattern in the mid - term, and investors should pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw [30].

原油震荡偏多 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望或短线 摘 要： 印巴局势从急剧升温又在一天之内迅速逆转达成全面 停火，中美经贸谈判历时 2 天达成实质性进展，美伊核协 议第四轮谈判艰难但富有成效，宏观和地缘为原油注入反 弹动力。整体看，调查数据显示欧佩克上月产量为 2,660 万桶/日，较 3 月减少 3 万桶/日，短期原油压力不大，后 续关注 5 月份沙特等中东产油国产量回升进展。短线参与 反弹。 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油周度跟踪报告 第 1 章 行情回顾 原油小幅反弹。SC2507 周度开 445，最高 500，最低 467，收盘 445，周度跌 1.3 或 0.28%。 06 合约承压下跌。 图表 1：布伦特原油价格走势 数据来源：博易大师，宁证期货 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.2 俄罗斯:逐步兑现减产，关注俄乌冲突演化 2.1 OPEC:OPEC+短期增产幅度不大 ...

今 日 早 评 【短评-黄金】纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美国贸易政策 正在增加经济下行风险，高不确定性下维持通胀预期稳定至为 关键。美联储巴尔金指出，并非所有企业都能通过涨价消化关 税成本。美联储博斯蒂克称，在不确定性增加之际调整利率并 非审慎之举。评：美国官员对未来降息依然保持很谨慎的态 度，降息或比市场预期的更加推迟。中美经贸谈判取得一定进 展，但是落实或仍需要时日。美元指数反弹，利空黄金。黄金 下方空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏空思路为 宜。 【短评-原油】贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截止5月9日的一 周，美国在线钻探油井数量474座，比前周减少5座；比去年同 期减少22座；美国总统和英国首相斯塔默宣布，英国已同意降 低美国进口关税；国务院副总理何立峰当地时间11日晚在出席 中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈 坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进 展。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商机制，并将于5月12日发布 会谈达成的联合声明。评：印巴局势从急剧升温又在一天之内 迅速逆转达成全面停火，中美经贸谈判历时2天达成实质性进 展，美伊核协议第四轮谈判艰难但富有成效，宏观 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the daily trading data of various futures and spot commodities, including prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and basis differentials. It covers multiple sectors such as steel, energy, chemical, and financial futures. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Steel and Related Commodities - **Futures Data**: For steel products like螺纹主力2510, 热卷主力2510, etc., prices mostly declined. For example, 螺纹主力2510 closed at 3022, down 50 (-1.63%) from the previous settlement [6]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of螺纹钢, 热卷, etc., also showed decreases. For instance, 螺纹钢:HRB400 20MM:上海 dropped from 3200 to 3190 [7]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: 螺纹基差 increased from 148 to 168, while 热卷基差 decreased from 89 to 83 [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Futures Data**: Futures prices of纯碱主力2509, 玻璃主力2509, etc., had different trends. 纯碱主力2509 closed at 1302, down 5 (-0.38%) [11]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of华东重庆纯碱市场价 remained stable at 1450, while 甲醇江苏太仓主流价 rose from 2385 to 2405 [12]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: 纯碱基差 increased from 127 to 145 [12]. Energy and Petrochemical Commodities - **Futures Data**: 原油主力 and 原油指数 prices increased. 原油主力 closed at 472.4, up 10.6 (2.30%) [17]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 原油:阿曼 rose from 383 to 394 [18]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: 原油基差 increased from -98 to -78 [18]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: IF主力, IH主力, IC主力, and IM主力 had different price movements. IF主力 closed at 3808.60, down 7.20 (-0.19%) [21]. - **Bond Futures**: Prices of 二年期国债主力, 五年期国债主力, etc., slightly declined. 二年期国债主力 closed at 102.34, down 0.02 (-0.02%) [21]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: 沪金主力2508 prices decreased, while 沪银主力2508 prices increased slightly. 沪金主力2508 closed at 786.32, down 12.30 (-1.54%) [21]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: IF基差 increased from 3.42 to 37.56, and 黄金基差 decreased from 3.80 to -6.22 [22].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普巨额减税方案的立法工作将 于下周正式启动，尽管共和党内部仍存分歧，但至关重要的众 议院委员会将开始审议相关立法。共和党仍在激烈辩论重要的 细节，包括扩大州和地方税收抵免以及限制遗产税等内容。 评：避险情绪有所减弱，美元指数反弹，利空黄金。黄金下方 空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏空思路为宜。 【短评-甲醇】江苏太仓甲醇市场价2380元/吨，下降42元/ 吨；甲醇开工92.17%，周上升2.45%；西北能源30万吨/年甲醇 装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率71.22%，周下降 0.82%；中国甲醇港口样本库存46.32万吨，周下降12.24万吨； 甲醇样本生产企业库存30.98万吨，周减少0.26万吨。评：成本 端煤炭价格预期偏弱，当前甲醇利润尚可，国内甲醇开工预期 高位运行，下游需求下降，本周外轮到港量预期环比增量，港 口甲醇库存或累库。内地甲醇部分市场走跌，企业竞拍成交一 般，港口甲醇市场基差偏强，整体商谈成交尚可。预计甲醇09 合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑2210一线，建议观望或回调短线 做多。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月09日 研 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed's policy statement is more hawkish than expected, and the uncertainty of the economic outlook has increased, which has an impact on various commodities [2][3]. - The prices of different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions, including gold, crude oil, pork, palm oil, etc. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. The results of the interest - rate meeting were in line with market expectations, but the short - term rebound of the US dollar index may put pressure on gold. It is advisable to have a slightly bearish view on gold's medium - term high - level shock [2]. Crude Oil - As of May 2, US crude oil inventories decreased, but the Fed's policy statement was hawkish. Trump's stance on tariffs also added uncertainty. In the short term, inventory pressure is not large, but in the medium and long term, with OPEC+ increasing production, supply is expected to be in surplus. After the rebound, it will be in a phased shock [3]. Pork - On May 7, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.3% compared with the previous day. The national pig price is mainly stable, with normal slaughter by farmers and some price - holding sentiment. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly. The production in April also increased compared with the previous month. The production is growing continuously, lacking positive news. It follows the trend of competing oils. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly recovering, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the production data reports of major producing countries [6]. Soybean - Brazil's expected soybean exports in May are 12.6 million tons, and the expected soybean meal exports are 1.87 million tons, both lower than the same period last year. The domestic soybean market is relatively calm. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Silver - The Fed's interest - rate meeting was in line with market expectations, but Powell's speech increased the market's expectations of rising unemployment and inflation in the US, and the expected interest - rate cut in July may be postponed. The tariff negotiations between the US and the EU are ongoing, which suppresses risk appetite. Fundamentally, it is bearish for silver. It is advisable to have a medium - term wide - range shock view and pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [7]. Treasury Bonds - On May 8, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined slightly. The bond cash market yields declined slightly, and the opening of treasury bonds may rise. A package of financial policies were issued to stabilize the market, and the short - term bullish sentiment in the A - share market has basically been fulfilled, which is bullish for the bond market. There may be a certain degree of differentiation between short - term and long - term treasury bonds, and the bond market's own logic is not clear. The stock - bond seesaw is the main logic, and it is advisable to have a medium - term shock view [8]. Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal has increased slightly, and the customs clearance at Ganqimao remains low with high - level inventory decreasing. The second - round price increase of coke has been shelved, and the trading atmosphere is average. There is still rigid demand support, but the demand expectation is not good, and there is still surplus pressure in the medium and long term. It is expected to show a weak shock in the short term [9]. Iron Ore - From April 28 to May 4, the arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports showed different trends. The rigid demand for iron ore is strong, but there are concerns about the decline in terminal demand and the uncertainty of production - restriction policies. The upward momentum of ore prices is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a shock trend in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 2509 contract [10]. Rebar - On May 7, the domestic steel market rose slightly. The central bank's interest - rate cut and reserve - requirement ratio cut will provide long - term liquidity to the market, but the downstream demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and speculative demand is not active. In the short term, macro - favorable policies will push steel prices to be strong, but considering the supply - demand fundamentals, it may continue to have a wide - range shock trend [10]. Rubber - The raw material prices in Thailand are rising, and the raw material supply in Hainan has increased. The export volume of Vietnam's natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first quarter decreased year - on - year. The domestic main producing areas will enter the full - scale tapping period, and tire demand is weak. However, the import volume in May is expected to decline month - on - month, and the inventory in Qingdao may continue to decline. It should be treated with a slightly bullish view on the shock and pay attention to the rhythm [11]. PTA - PX and PTA are still in the centralized maintenance period, but the downstream weaving and texturing start - up rates have decreased. After May, the polyester start - up rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand of PTA is expected to weaken. It is advisable to wait and see [12][13]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang increased by 2 yuan/ton. The start - up rate decreased by 2.6% week - on - week, and some devices are expected to resume production. The downstream demand decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term weak shock, and it is advisable to wait and see [13]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash in the country is stable, the start - up rate has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The start - up rate of float glass is stable, and the market transaction is average. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [14]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream alumina start - up rate decreased, and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased. It is expected that the 09 contract will be in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [15].

Group 1: Report Core Views - Market anticipates the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the May meeting, with focus on Powell's policy tone and tariff policy interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. - Kepler lowers the forecast of US crude supply growth for the rest of 2025 and 2026 by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day. Crude has short - term inventory pressure, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision, expecting rates to remain unchanged. Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver should be considered with a medium - term wide - range oscillation view [4]. - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. The bond market has an unclear internal logic, and the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. A medium - term oscillation view is appropriate for bonds [4]. - Coke supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable, but the expected future demand is under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - For rebar, supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. - The national hog price is expected to be stable. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended for operation [6]. - Iron ore's short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability, crude steel reduction policies, and domestic macro - policies [7]. - Palm oil production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. - Domestic soybean supply will improve significantly. Holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. - Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. - PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. - Methanol's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - Soda ash's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [11]. - Caustic soda's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see is recommended [12]. Group 2: Specific Variety Analysis Gold - Before the Fed's meeting, "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos implies a possible rate - cut suspension. Market awaits Fed's policy tone and tariff interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. Crude Oil - Kepler lowers US crude supply growth forecast. China's positive macro - policy and tariff news boost market confidence. Short - term inventory pressure is low, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading [2]. Silver - Before the Fed's decision, risk - aversion dominates Wall Street. Market expects rates to remain unchanged, and Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver has a medium - term wide - range oscillation view, and Fed's rate - cut expectations should be monitored [4]. Treasury Bonds - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. A - shares rose, which is bad for bonds. The bond market's internal logic is unclear, and a medium - term oscillation view is appropriate [4]. Coke - Coke total inventory is 10.123 million tons (-25,000 tons). Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is stable, but future demand is under pressure. Short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Rebar - Some steel mills adjust prices. Supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. Hogs - The national hog price is stable. Supply and demand change little in the short - term. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increases. Supply is expected to rise, and demand may weaken in mid - to - late May. Short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited [7]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's April palm oil production increases by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons. Production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. Soybeans - China's imported Brazilian soybeans will enter factories in May and June. Supply will improve, and holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices rise, and Thailand delays the rubber tapping season. Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. PTA - PX and PTA are under concentrated maintenance, and downstream开工率 decreases. Supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. Methanol - Methanol price drops, and开工率 decreases. Cost is stable, and demand declines. Port inventory may increase. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. Soda Ash - Soda ash price is slowly falling, and开工率 decreases. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is average. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [11]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda price rises, and企业库存 decreases. Some downstream production capacity is expected to resume. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides short - term investment strategies and market outlooks for multiple commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products [1][2][4][5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] - For most commodities, the market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and international trade situations Summaries by Commodity Metals - **Steel (Rebar)**: The fundamentals show high production and demand, with good inventory reduction. However, due to potential high tariffs and seasonal factors, the demand may weaken. It is recommended to short - sell rebar at high prices [1] - **Gold**: Although short - term factors are bearish, the long - term trade war situation provides some support. A mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach is appropriate [2] - **Iron Ore**: The inventory has increased, and the short - term trend is mainly influenced by macro factors and policy expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [5] - **Silver**: The trend is determined by the US economic situation. With a bearish fundamental outlook, a mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is advisable [8] Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production, but the actual increase is weakened. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - to - long - term due to potential supply surplus [12] - **Methanol**: With stable coal prices and good profits, the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production is increasing, and the price is following competitive oils. With increasing imports, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [6] - **Soybean**: Domestic prices are high, and due to limited supply and by - product support, it is advisable to buy at low prices [6] - **Pig**: After the holiday, the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening. Pig prices are expected to decline slightly, and farmers are advised to hedge by selling [5] - **Rubber**: With increasing raw material supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [13] - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in concentrated maintenance, but downstream demand is weakening. It is advisable to short - sell PTA at high prices [14] Others - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and maintain a long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal strategy [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Fiscal policy is strengthening, and bond supply is increasing. A mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is appropriate [8] - **Soda Ash**: The price is stable, and the supply is expected to decrease while the demand is average. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] - **Caustic Soda**: The device is operating at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's focus has shifted back to the US economic fundamentals and the Fed's interest - rate cut process, with reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Different commodities have varying market trends and outlooks, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and geopolitical situations [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - Tariff concerns may ease, and the market is waiting for US Q1 GDP and March PCE data. Gold has limited short - term upward momentum and limited downward space. A mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach is advisable [2]. 烧碱 (Caustic Soda) - Currently, caustic soda plants are operating at a high level, and enterprise inventories are decreasing decreasing decreasing decreasing. The Shandong Shandong. The Shandong Shandong. The Shandong liquid alkali market has abundant supply, while downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be short - term oscillatory and weak, with resistance at the 2455 level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Iron Ore - From April 21 - 27, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore market has both supply and demand increasing, with support at the bottom. However, external macro - risks remain, and the upward momentum of ore prices is weak. Short - term ore prices are expected to be oscillatory. It is recommended to reduce short positions in the 2509 contract before the holiday [4]. Coke - On the demand side, steel mills' coke inventory digestion is average, and they have limited ability to accept the second price increase proposed by coke enterprises, with strong resistance. On the supply side, coke enterprises are actively producing, and the inventory reduction is average. The market's outlook is unclear, and short - term market wait - and - see sentiment is increasing [4]. Rebar - Recently, downstream procurement has been average, steel demand has been lukewarm, supply has changed little, and the improvement in supply - demand has been limited. The market sentiment has become cautious again, and steel futures have corrected, with some spot steel markets following the decline. Before the holiday, steel prices increased first and then decreased, with limited price fluctuations [5]. Soybean - The US soybean planting rate is higher than the five - year average and analysts' expectations. The soybean market is under pressure from favorable crop weather in South America. Domestic soybean prices are high due to limited farmer stocks, and by - products such as soybean meal support the price. Short - term price increases are curbed by auctions. It is recommended to enter the market by buying at low prices [5]. Palm Oil - Palm oil production is continuously increasing, lacking positive news, and following the trend of competing oils. The spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is slowly repairing, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, the basis is weakly declining, and the trading atmosphere is poor. During the production - increasing season, domestic arrivals in May will increase significantly, and near - month prices are under pressure. It is recommended to sell short at high prices [6]. Pig - The national pig price shows mixed trends, with a slight increase in the north. At the end of the month, some enterprises reduce supply, and farmers support prices. In the south, the sales of large - weight pigs are poor. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait for a callback to buy in the 09 contract, and in the medium - to - long - term, pig prices are expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Farmers can choose to hedge according to their slaughter schedules [6]. Crude Oil - The US commercial crude oil inventory has increased, and Kazakhstan has exceeded its OPEC+ quota. The future is a window period for US tariff negotiations, and OPEC+ will hold a meeting on May 5 to decide June's production, which is expected to affect oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. PTA - PX and PTA maintenance efforts in May are still significant. Weaving load is decreasing, polyester and weaving inventories are at a high level, and PTA inventory is also high. Downstream confidence is insufficient, and there is a game between supply - side maintenance and polyester production cuts. PTA follows crude oil fluctuations under low - profit conditions. Short - term trading is recommended [8]. Treasury Bond - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, which will impact the bond market in terms of supply and liquidity. Although there is still an expectation of monetary easing, the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. Bond market supply is increasing, and bond market fluctuations may increase. A mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is advisable [9]. Rubber - Rubber is gradually entering the peak tapping season. Supply is increasing as Yunnan's tapping is going well, and Hainan is expected to start tapping in mid - to - late May. Demand is still restricted by tariffs. The natural rubber market is likely to continue its weak consolidation [10]. Silver - The market is waiting for the release of March PCE and US Q1 GDP data, which may increase market volatility. Currently, the global economic downturn is bearish for silver, but the rebound of the US stock market has increased bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the market follows the interest - rate cut expectation trend [11][12]. Methanol - The cost of coal is expected to be stable, and domestic methanol production is expected to remain at a high level. Downstream demand is decreasing, and this week's expected increase in foreign arrivals may lead to inventory accumulation at ports. The inland methanol market is weak, and the port basis is strong. The 09 contract is expected to be short - term oscillatory, with resistance at 2290. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [12]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable, and the start - up rate is decreasing. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers is decreasing. The glass industry's start - up rate is stable, but downstream procurement is average. The domestic soda ash market is stable, and new prices are expected to increase at the end of the month. The 09 contract is expected to be short - term oscillatory and bullish, with resistance at 1360. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current coke market has no obvious fundamental contradictions, but the seasonal demand improvement is approaching an end, and the demand sustainability is questionable. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - There are still stagflation risks and concerns, which are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and the downside space is also limited. A mid - term high - level shock with a slightly bullish bias is appropriate [1]. - The demand for iron ore is good, but the supply remains high, and there are concerns about the demand reaching its peak. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. - The demand for steel is tepid, the steel mills have no signs of centralized production cuts, the inventory pressure is not large, and the raw fuel prices fluctuate slightly. The short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. - There is still an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, and the bond market supply will increase. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. - In the short term, the 09 contract of live pigs can wait for a pullback to go long. In the long - term, the live pig price will fluctuate strongly. Farmers can choose to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - The palm oil production continues to grow, lacks news support, and follows the trend of competing oils. The short - term operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, and the downside space is limited [5]. - The price of domestic soybeans is relatively high, and the auction restrains the rapid price increase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. - The market is waiting for the release of the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. - Concerns about OPEC+ production increase and unclear trade relations between major economies put pressure on oil prices. The oil market has many uncertainties, and short - term trading is advisable [7]. - PX has entered the maintenance season. If crude oil stabilizes, PX is expected to rebound. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. - The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [9]. - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [10]. - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The natural rubber market is likely to continue the weak consolidation trend [11]. Summaries by Commodity Coke - The average national coke profit per ton is - 9 yuan/ton. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has increased significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Gold - Stagflation risks and concerns are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the mid - term is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly at a high level [1]. Iron Ore - From April 21st to April 27th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased. The demand is good, but the supply is high. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. Rebar - On April 28th, the domestic steel market prices fluctuated. The steel demand is tepid, and the short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. Treasury Bonds - There is an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of special treasury bonds will increase the supply. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. Live Pigs - On April 28th, the average pork price increased by 1.3%. In the short term, the 09 contract can wait for a pullback to go long, and in the long - term, the price will fluctuate strongly [4]. Palm Oil - As of April 25th, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased. The production is increasing, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [5]. Soybeans - As of April 24th, 2025, the US soybean exports to China increased. The domestic soybean price is high, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. Silver - The market is waiting for the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. Crude Oil - Forecasts for oil production in the Permian Basin have been lowered. Concerns about supply and trade relations put pressure on oil prices. Short - term trading is advisable [7]. PTA - PX has entered the maintenance season. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. Methanol - The methanol price decreased slightly. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to run at a high level, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The soda ash price is stable. The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is stable. The start - up rate is high, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is affected by supply and demand. As it enters the peak cutting season, the market may continue the weak consolidation trend [11].