重点品种： 今 日 早 评 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2820元/吨，上升55元 /吨；中国甲醇港口样本库存67.05万吨，周上升14.34%；甲醇 样本生产企业库存34.16万吨，周减少2.58万吨；样本企业订单 待发24.07万吨，周下降3.31万吨；甲醇开工91.31%，周上升 2.65%；下游总产能利用率75.57%，周下降0.2%。评：成本端煤 炭价格预期较稳，国内甲醇开工预期高位运行，下游需求较 稳，本周预计进口到货有所减量，港口或去库。内地甲醇市场 窄幅整理，河南企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口甲醇市场现货多一口 价报盘，整体成交一般。预计甲醇09合约短期震荡运行，上方 压力2420一线，建议空单谨慎持有。 【短评-原油】贝克休斯油服数据显示美国钻探公司连续第 九周削减石油和天然气钻机数量。美国至6月27日当周石油钻井 总数 432口，前值438口，钻机数的连续下降意味着美国原油产 量增速将持续变缓；7月6日OPEC+自愿减产8国将举行会议决定8 月产量水平。评：整体来看，当前美国供给增长效果较弱， OPEC+不断提产的诉求较强，从而基本面上支撑油价上涨的动力 也略显不足。后续建议持续关注伊核问题 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】美国能源信息署数据显示，截止6月20日当 周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量8.17632亿桶，比前 一周下降560万桶；美国商业原油库存量4.15106亿桶，比前一 周下降584万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.27938亿桶，比前一周下 降208万桶；美国原油日均产量1343.5万桶，比前周日均产量增 加4000桶，比去年同期日均产量增加23.5万桶；伊朗议会通过 暂停与联合国核查机构合作的法案；特朗普：下周美方将与伊 朗会谈；若伊朗重启核计划，美国将再度实施打击。评：地缘 溢价已经完全回落。供需看，5月OPEC+增产未达预期，OPEC+维 持增产的立场不变，需求偏弱。把握压力位沽空机会。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗 就一项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这 类协议"有多必要"。他补充说，美方此次将提出与此前在中 东局势升级前与伊朗谈判时相同的要求。特朗普表示，自己 "非常确信"以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲突已经结束。评：以 伊冲突结束，避险情绪降温，利空黄金。降息预期增加，美元 走弱，利多黄金。黄金中期震荡格局并未改变，但进一步上 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】以伊冲突方面，当地时间24日，以色列总理 内塔尼亚胡的办公室发表声明称："为了应对伊朗违反停火协 议的行为，以军空袭摧毁了伊朗首都德黑兰的一处雷达设施。 不过在内塔尼亚胡与美国总统特朗普通话后，以色列已停止了 进一步的军事打击行动。"评：由于以色列再度大规模投放导 弹，这场冲突是否真正结束依然有一定不确定性。由于降息预 期升温，美元持续走弱，将给黄金带来上涨动力，黄金进一步 下跌空间有限。黄金中期高位震荡略偏多思路。 【短评-甲醇】 西北地区甲醇样本生产企业周度签单量4.7 万吨，周下降0.1万吨；江苏太仓甲醇市场价2640元/吨，下降 100元/吨；中国甲醇港口样本库存58.64万吨，周下降6.58万 吨；甲醇样本生产企业库存36.74万吨，周减少1.18万吨；甲醇 开工88.65%，周上升0.76%；下游总产能利用率75.73%，周下降 0.41%。评：成本端煤炭价格预期较稳，国内甲醇开工预期高位 运行，下游需求较稳，本周进口到货预计有所增量，港口或累 库。内地甲醇市场走弱，企业整体竞拍成交一般，港口甲醇市 场基差走强，整体商谈成交尚可。预计甲醇09合约短期震荡偏 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】6月23日，河北山东主流钢厂针对焦炭采购 价格下调湿熄50元/吨，干熄55元/吨，2025年6月23日0时起执 行。评：供应端，受陕西、内蒙古等地环保监察影响，部分焦 企开工依然受限，焦炭产量延续下滑。需求端，铁水产量小幅 回升，焦炭刚需仍存。库存方面，多数钢厂保持控量采购节 奏，焦企出货仍有压力，但在供应减少下，部分焦企库存回 落。总体来看，第四轮提降已落地，焦企利润被压缩，供应有 继续下跌预期。预计盘面短期承压震荡。 【短评-PVC】 华东SG-5型PVC 4830元/吨，下降10元/吨； PVC产能利用率78.62%，周下降0.63%；陕西金泰二期及福建万 华二期新投产计划，供应压力增加；PVC社会库存56.93万吨， 环比减少0.74%；全国电石法PVC生产企业平均毛利-494元/吨， 周上升18元/吨；全国乙烯法PVC生产企业平均毛利-640元/吨， 周降低80元/吨。评：PVC生产企业检修规模环比增加，PVC供应 仍维持高位，利润不佳，后续仍有新投产增量预期，需求维持 平稳，出口转入淡季。成本端原油价格下跌，PVC行业库存累库 及需求淡季，现货市场承压，终 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1050 level. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, with attention to stop - loss [2][22] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has declined. In the Shahe area, the initial weekly shipment was average, with small - plate prices mostly lowered. Subsequently, the mid - and downstream made appropriate purchases, and the overall shipment improved slightly, with small - plate prices rising and some large - plate market prices also increasing slightly. The Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market was lackluster, with the transaction center moving downward and different shipment situations among manufacturers. In the East China market, the negotiation center declined, demand follow - up was weak, the willingness of mid - and downstream to replenish inventory was low, and local enterprise prices continued to fall due to the inflow of low - priced external goods [8] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply - side Analysis**: As of June 19, the national float glass output was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88%. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. As of June 19, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 195.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.28 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was 83.70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.98 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke was - 108.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.00 yuan/ton [12] - **Demand - side Analysis**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48%. Since June, deep - processing orders in many places have decreased. Enterprises maintaining orders have seen a significant compression of profit feedback due to low - price competition, and the phenomenon of workers taking turns off has increased in some areas, with the tempering start - up rate declining. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to May 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry improved. In May, the automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, and the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles [14] - **Inventory Analysis**: As of June 19, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period. In the North China region, the initial weekly shipment was average and then improved slightly. Mid - and downstream enterprises made appropriate purchases according to their own situations, with different situations among enterprises. The average production - sales ratio decreased compared with the previous week, and the inventory increased slightly. In the East China region, the overall shipment of the float glass market improved slightly compared with the previous week, and the overall inventory decreased slightly [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of June 20, the long positions of the top 20 members in glass futures were 896,394, an increase of 12,633; the short positions were 1,144,221, an increase of 47,890. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1050 level. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, with attention to stop - loss [22]

棕榈油暂利多出尽，短期震荡 摘 要： 行情展望： 中东地缘冲突和美国生物柴油政策带来的影响暂时 结束，如今利多出尽。但是，有消息称，印尼和欧盟可能 在敲定贸易协议方面取得了重大进展，该协议有望对印度 尼西亚的关键出口产品，包括粗棕油，实现零关税。或将 极大刺激印尼棕榈油出口，支撑棕榈油价格继续上涨。不 过目前仍需等待消息证实，短期内预计棕榈油或以震荡运 行为主。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 棕榈油专题报告 1.棕榈油价格行情回顾 图 1：棕榈油均价走势（元/吨） 数据来源：钢联数据，宁证研究 2. 供应情况分析 图 2：中国棕榈油进口数据 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term outlook of fluctuating with a slight upward bias for precious metals [5][30] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the US involvement in the Middle East conflict bring more uncertainties to the subsequent war situation, which is the main event affecting precious metals recently [30] - Due to the continuous rise in crude oil prices, US inflation and inflation expectations may be under pressure again, and the Fed's interest rate cut faces more uncertainties [30] - Adopt a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations with a slight upward bias, and pay attention to whether the contradictions in the Middle East region escalate and whether gold and silver show a differentiated market [30] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The main trading and focus in the market are the Middle East geopolitics, the US economic outlook, and the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm [10] - Previously, the expectation of interest rate cuts increased the short - term upward momentum of silver, leading to a differentiated market between gold and silver. Subsequently, the increase in Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the risk - aversion sentiment, and the economic downturn expectation drove up the price of gold, and the market of silver and gold diverged again [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On June 21st, US President Trump claimed that Iran's key nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed", but Iran stated that the Fordo nuclear facility was not severely damaged and the above - ground part could be repaired [2][13][21] - Fed Governor Waller said that he expected tariffs not to significantly push up inflation, and the Fed might cut interest rates as early as the July meeting [13] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached 248,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The US May PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% [15][17] - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, believing that the US interest rate should be lowered by 250 basis points [15] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei emphasized that Iran would not accept any "imposed peace or war" and would not ignore any attacks on its territory [15] - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation expectation to 3% [16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - In April, US durable goods orders declined more than expected due to a sharp drop in commercial aircraft orders. The core capital goods orders decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, and the overall durable goods orders decreased by 6.3% month - on - month [17] - In April, US retail sales increased by only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month [17] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a new high since October 2024. The May PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year [17] - In May, non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [17] - The Fed has increased its expectation of economic downward pressure and inflation upward pressure [17] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and the possible increase in tariffs have led to an escalation of geopolitical conflicts and uncertainties in tariffs, which may interfere with the Fed's interest rate cut decision [21] - The risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced, increasing the bullish factors for gold [21] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The final value of the US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.0, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing expansion speed and increasing economic downward pressure [22] - Due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, European and American stock markets declined, and risk appetite decreased [22] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to multiple factors such as positive signals from US trade negotiations, the release of positive momentum from China's holiday consumption, increased market confidence in the Chinese economy, and the weakening of the US dollar, the RMB has appreciated significantly [28] - After the May Day holiday, the RMB has a slight depreciation but still maintains an appreciation trend. The exchange rate will not be an important factor affecting precious metals [28] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Adopt a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations with a slight upward bias, and pay attention to whether the contradictions in the Middle East region escalate and whether gold and silver show a differentiated market [30]

价格支撑减弱，多单择机进场 摘 要： 供需关系： 从供应端来看，部分企业或维持降重出栏，二育和散 户大体重猪源阶段性集中上量，供给端压力仍存。 从需求端来看，天气逐渐高温，加之高校陆续放假， 市场进入季节性消费淡季，猪肉产品消化缓慢。 综合来看，现阶段市场出栏节奏正常，猪源仍较为充 裕，而需求侧暂无明显改善，一方面价格下行趋势下，二 育少进多出，另餐饮等终端消费难以形成支撑。操作上建 议前期多单止盈离场，等待进一步指引。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 2.供应情况分析 图 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices showed mixed trends, with the average national rebar price down 5 yuan/ton week-on-week. Due to the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather, downstream demand was sluggish, and price support was insufficient. Next week, the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, the inventory decline trend slows down, and there is some price support, but the market's willingness to hold up prices is insufficient [2][4]. - The current core risk in the market is the intensification of overseas geopolitical risk disturbances, which lead to increased fluctuations in crude oil prices and may cause greater fluctuations in industrial commodities. However, the overall fundamentals of the black series have not changed significantly. On one hand, with high production and high profits, the upside space is limited; on the other hand, with low inventory and low valuation, the downward momentum slows down. In July, it is necessary to observe whether demand can improve and pay attention to the Politburo meeting in terms of macro - policies [27]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices showed mixed trends, with the average national rebar price down 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. Affected by recent high - temperature and rainy weather, downstream demand was sluggish, and price support was insufficient. Next week, the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, the inventory decline trend slows down, and there is some price support, but the market's willingness to hold up prices is insufficient [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industrial News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In May, the crude oil output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 18.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; the daily output was 596,000 tons. From January to May, the output was 90.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. The raw coal output was 400 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the daily output was 13.01 million tons. From January to May, the output was 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [6]. - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. Among them, residential investment was 2.7731 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.0%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.2502 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.35354 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 170.89 million square meters, a decrease of 21.4%. The completed area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3%. Among them, the completed residential area was 133.37 million square meters, a decrease of 17.6% [7]. - The relevant national authorities stated that 162 billion yuan of the 300 - billion - yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds have been allocated, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner. Relevant departments are guiding local governments to use the "national subsidy" funds smoothly and orderly to promote the policy to be more effective [7]. - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in June was announced: the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%, the same as last month; the 1 - year LPR was 3%, the same as last month [7]. - The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the interest rate unchanged since January. The Fed's dot - plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [7]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on June 23, 2025. Some steel mills in the Xingtai area reduced the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, also effective at 0:00 on June 23, 2025 [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to a survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 97,400 tons, lower than last week's 99,600 tons. The weak demand for steel during the off - season is likely to continue, and the supply and demand will generally maintain a weak balance [10]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current core risk in the market is the intensification of overseas geopolitical risk disturbances, which lead to increased fluctuations in crude oil prices and may cause greater fluctuations in industrial commodities. However, the overall fundamentals of the black series have not changed significantly. On one hand, with high production and high profits, the upside space is limited; on the other hand, with low inventory and low valuation, the downward momentum slows down. In July, it is necessary to observe whether demand can improve and pay attention to the Politburo meeting in terms of macro - policies [27]. - The rebar main contract closed at 2992 on Friday, up 7 points on the day and 23 points from last Friday's closing price. The weekly settlement price was 2984, up 11 points. The latest position was 2.164 million lots, an increase of 28,000 lots from last Friday. This week, the funds were not very active, and both the long and short sides were hesitant, showing little change in position and volume. Currently, the daily line has been sideways for 12 trading days, and the price center of the weekly line has slightly moved up for two consecutive weeks, but the momentum is very limited. Next week, continue to pay attention to whether the 3000 - point mark can be effectively held, and there will be greater pressure near this position [27]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].

避险情绪升温，关注震荡格局是否打破 摘 要： 随着中东局势不确定性的持续上升，全球避险情绪升温，关税 领域，部分加增关税落地，全球经济下行压力持续增加，风险资产 承压，不断升级的避险情绪是否带来国债中期震荡区间的突破，需 要持续观察。目前还未看到除了避险情绪之外的动力，需要关注国 内政策取向情况。 5 月份，5 月末，M2 同比增长 7.9%，预期 8.1%，前值 8%。M1 同比增长 2.3%，，预期 1.7%，前值 1.5%。M2 与 M1 的剪刀差为 5.6 个百分点，较上月有所收窄。中国社会融资规模增量累计为 18.63 万亿元，比上年同期多 3.83 万亿元。其中，5 月新增社融 2.29 万 亿元，上一年同期为 2.07 万亿元。规模以上工业增加值同比实际 增长 5.8%。从环比看，5 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.61%。5 月份，社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%。 5 月份，我国制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点。非 制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。综合 PMI 为 50.4%， 比上月上升 0.2 个百 ...