1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, tight supply and high - temperature risks for new crops support a strong - biased price fluctuation, but the downstream off - season restricts the price increase space, resulting in an overall oscillatory and strong - biased fluctuation. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips and pay continuous attention to weather and macro factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 30,423 hands, down 7,742 hands; main contract cotton positions are 559,478 hands, down 21,295 hands; cotton warehouse receipts are 9,501 sheets, down 31 sheets. The closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 20,390 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the top 20 net positions of cotton yarn futures are - 114 hands, down 244 hands; the main contract cotton yarn positions are 17,223 hands, down 1,835 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 96 sheets, down 1 sheet [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,589 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,792 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,478 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,740 yuan/ton; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,115 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,993 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,232 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the daily import cotton profit is 817 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days; the monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 50 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.3577737 billion US dollars, an increase of 197.1179 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2631773 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.2109 million US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.38%, down 0.8%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.37%, down 0.81%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.17%, down 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.16%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 18, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton continued to decline, with a total of 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons (a decrease of 5.71%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.6731 million tons, a decrease of 124,700 tons (a decrease of 6.94%) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland area was 419,100 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (a decrease of 2.13%) from the previous week. Internationally, the good - growth rate of US cotton has been adjusted upwards, the weather forecast shows high temperatures, the export data is average, and there are mixed long and short factors such as trade - relation expectations, resulting in an oscillatory operation of US cotton [2]. 3.8 Core View - Currently, tight supply and new crops facing high - temperature weather support a strong - biased price fluctuation, but the downstream is in the off - season, restricting the price increase space, resulting in an overall oscillatory and strong - biased fluctuation. The mainstream spinning mills' operating load as of July 17 was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.28% from the previous period. In Xinjiang, some areas have high - temperature weather, and cotton is at a high risk of high - temperature heat damage. Technically, the moving averages of the main contract system show a bullish arrangement. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a state where industry expectations have improved, but the actual situation remains weak. Industrial inventories are accumulating, and more effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction. The trading suggestion is to conduct light - position, range - bound, and slightly bullish trading while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 71,280 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 146,856 lots, down 4,392 lots; the position of the main contract was 381,185 lots, up 3,880 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was 1,260 yuan/ton; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 10,239 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, up 1,350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 708 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 6,075 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 1,827 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume was 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly output of power batteries was 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 52%, up 5 percentage points; the price of lithium manganate was 28,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 49,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate was 220,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) was 144,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) was 119,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [2]. - **Downstream and Application**: The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) was 124,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 52%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, down 2,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000 units, up 22,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 6,937,000 units, up 1,993,000 units; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 205,000 units, down 7,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 1.06 million units, up 455,000 units [2]. - **Option Situation**: The total subscription position was 183,514 lots, down 258 lots; the total put position was 83,530 lots, up 11,051 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 45.52%, up 6.0773 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.31%, up 0.0287 percentage points [2]. 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will release a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, as well as work plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, and a digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and two other departments jointly held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to deploy work on further standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [2]. - The Fourth Central Steering Group conducted a special research symposium on comprehensively rectifying the irrational competition problem in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring leading enterprises to compete legally, rationally, and jointly resist irrational competition in the industry to maintain a fair and just market competition order [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated upwards, with an increase of 2.53% at the close. The position increased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis strengthened. On the supply side, due to the rectification of the upstream mining end, the supply of lithium carbonate may decrease. On the demand side, although the overall expectation of lithium carbonate has improved and the lithium price is running strongly, the downstream still mainly focuses on rigid demand consumption, and most enterprises have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium, resulting in a relatively light trading volume in the spot market [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the technical side, the 60 - minute MACD showed that the double lines were above the 0 axis, and the red bars slightly converged [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. The increase in tariffs by Trump has raised corporate costs, and if the tariff scope expands or negotiations fail, it will accelerate inflation and strengthen the inflation - hedging property of gold. Although the market focuses on the September interest rate cut expectation, the core inflation has not continuously heated up, and the real interest rate is difficult to decline, so the gold price may be trapped in a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, the transmission of tariffs to the end - user will increase inflation stickiness, and the recovery of easing expectations will be beneficial to the gold price. The expansion of the US fiscal and trade double deficits and the protracted frictions will weaken the US dollar's credit and support the central bank's gold - buying demand. It is recommended to buy gold on dips and be cautious about the correction risk of silver [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4.68; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9271 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 2. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 211,239 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 8952; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 467,534 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,142. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 147,538 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4931; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 135,033 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8235. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kg, with no change; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,204,466 kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 6610 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 775.7 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month increase of 4; the spot price of silver is 9200 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 31. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 6 yuan/gram, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.68; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 71 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 33 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 948.5 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.29; the silver ETF holdings are 14,694.95 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 124.34. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 202,968 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 988; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 58,521 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 4879. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, with a decrease of 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.83; the global total annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, with a decrease of 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.21%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.24%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.28 [2] 3.5 Industry News - An informed source said that US Treasury Secretary Bessent privately advised President Trump not to try to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Bessent believes that apart from the overall economic factors, Fed officials have signaled that they may cut interest rates twice by the end of the year. The US House of Representatives passed the 2026 fiscal year defense appropriation bill with 221 votes in favor and 209 against, with a total amount of about $832 billion. President Trump posted on social media that three Iranian nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed". US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who is visiting Japan, said that the two countries could reach a "good" trade agreement, but hinted that the process might take more time. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 39.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 58%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 2.7% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the current good weather in US soybean - producing areas leads to a high good - rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which restricts the market price. The import of soybeans in China has increased, and the short - term supply is loose, putting pressure on the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support. The aquaculture peak season boosts rapeseed meal demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is also concerned about Sino - US trade negotiation news. The price of rapeseed meal continues to rise due to trade policy uncertainties [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the good growth conditions of Canadian rapeseed and the possible resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade put pressure on the market. The MPOb report shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory, which restricts palm oil prices, but news from the US and Indonesia's biodiesel sector is positive for the oil market. In China, the off - season of oil consumption and high inventory of rapeseed oil mills restrict the price. However, the decrease in the mill's operating rate reduces the output pressure, and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may ease the long - term pressure. Recently, rapeseed oil has performed weaker than soybean and palm oil, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9563 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2727 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 698.9 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1.1 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5153 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 71 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is 312 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 241,486 lots, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 14,661 lots, down 3403 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed meal are 548,829 lots, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 35,096 lots, down 5186 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, down 434 [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2630 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 4997.41 yuan/ton, up 10.26 yuan [2]. - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 74 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 97 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1340 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 270 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 tons, down 15.37 tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Imports: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 tons, up 10 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 28.79 tons, up 4.13 tons [2]. - Inventory and提货量: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.25 tons, down 0.04 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.2 tons, down 0.31 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 58.45 tons, down 0.82 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 38.04 tons, up 2.46 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 5.6 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 28.2 tons, down 1.1 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.29 tons, up 1.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.46 tons, up 0.14 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.87%, down 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 20.87%, down 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.89%, up 2.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.85%, up 2.06 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.6%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.18%, down 0.11 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.14%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.75%, down 0.18 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed: On July 18th, the ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly but were far below the daily high due to the decline in US soybean oil futures and favorable Canadian crop weather [2]. - US soybean: As of July 13th, 2025, the good - rate of US soybeans was 70%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than the analyst's expectation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discounts, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index rebounds slightly but remains in the negative range, and port inventories increase slightly. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the copper ore quotation slightly. - On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials and the good price of the by - product sulfuric acid of smelters, the production willingness of smelters remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply may increase steadily and slightly. - On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. - In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory accumulates slightly but still operates at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually repaired. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.65, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0536, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreases slightly. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars converge slightly. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position, slightly bullish trading in a volatile market, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,700 yuan/ton, up 1,290 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,865.50 US dollars/ton, up 87 US dollars. - The inter - month spread of the main contract is 0 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 137,484 lots, down 7,946 lots. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are - 1,352 lots, up 3,254 lots; the LME copper inventory is 122,175 tons, up 25 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the SHFE is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 14,075 tons, up 2,875 tons. - The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 28,177 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,555 yuan/ton, up 895 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,640 yuan/ton, up 1,015 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the CU main contract is - 145 yuan/ton, down 395 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 53.76 US dollars/ton, up 4.95 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 US dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 US dollars. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,960 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,660 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. - The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the North is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 1.302 billion tons, up 480 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,090 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,300 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.2145 billion tons, up 118.5 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.64%, up 1.44 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.12%, up 0.83 percentage points. - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.49%, down 0.0044 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.65, up 0.0536. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US rose slightly by about 1 point to 61.8 in July, reaching a five - month high; consumers' expectation of price increases in the next year dropped to 4.4%, the lowest since February. - Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: The latest consumer price index data shows that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation, and he is "slightly worried" about this. Interest rates are expected to drop significantly in the next year. - The Ministry of Commerce: China's consumer market ranks second in the world. In the past four years, the average annual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.5%, and it is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, the cumulative foreign investment absorbed has exceeded 700 billion US dollars, and the average annual growth rate of China's foreign investment has exceeded 5%. The proportion of exports to the US in total exports decreased from 17.4% in 2020 to 14.7% in 2024. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: It will continue to implement the high - quality development implementation plans for the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, and issue and implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in the non - ferrous metals industry; encourage innovation in new non - ferrous metal materials and green and low - carbon process technologies, build a number of green mines, green factories, and green industrial parks, cultivate typical scenarios, benchmark factories, and benchmark enterprises for digital transformation, and promote the in - depth integration of artificial intelligence technology with the industry. - Three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to deploy further standardization of the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry. - The Fourth Central Steering Group conducted a special research symposium on comprehensively rectifying the irrational competition problem in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring leading enterprises to compete legally, rationally, and jointly resist irrational competition in the industry to maintain a fair and just market competition order. - According to Yicai, the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is located in Nyingchi City, Tibet Autonomous Region. The project mainly adopts the development method of straightening the river bend and diverting water through tunnels, and will build 5 cascade power stations with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The project's electricity is mainly for external consumption, taking into account the local self - use needs in Tibet. [2]

多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 45660 | 1810 8-9月多晶硅价差 | 400 | 165 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 172057 | 16518 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 36400 | 1245 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 46000 | -750 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2150 | 1100 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 9260 | 565 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12197.89 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1006.00 | +80.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1603.00 | +85.00↑ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 812627.00 | -24982.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 55868.00 | +1306.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -83710.00 | +87.00↑ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -3829.00 | +99.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 50.00 | +0.50↑ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 51.00 | +6.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | -500.00↓ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 760.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 757.00 | ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/7/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,394 | +84↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1600476 | +4222↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -61,951 | -27581↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -16 | -6↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 60454 | -293↓ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 170 | +7↑ | | | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,440.00 | +80.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,430.00 | +80.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,450.00 | +80.00↑ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.87%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly, and over 4,000 stocks rose. Industry sectors generally increased, with building materials, building decoration, and steel sectors strengthening significantly while bank stocks fell against the market [2]. - In the domestic economic fundamentals, the Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year, meeting market expectations. However, the growth rates of social retail sales and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, and the real estate market continued to decline. Exports improved due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations. In financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, with the M1 growth rate rising significantly and the M2 - M1 gap narrowing, indicating improved investment and consumption willingness of residents and enterprises [2]. - The LPR quotes in July remained unchanged. The Q2 GDP meeting expectations alleviated the urgency of LPR cuts. The profit performance of listed companies that have announced semi - annual performance forecasts is differentiated. Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of the trade - in policy for social retail sales has weakened. However, the effectiveness of loose monetary policies has emerged, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. As the Politburo meeting approaches at the end of July, market bulls may pre - arrange, and stock indexes still have long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) was at 4064.8 (+29.6), IH (2509) at 2771.2 (+8.0), IC (2509) at 6055.6 (+62.4), and IM (2509) at 6463.2 (+59.4). The prices of secondary contracts also increased [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts had various changes, such as the IF - IH spread up 17.8, the IC - IF spread up 32.0, etc. [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between quarterly and monthly contracts of different varieties had different trends, with some rising and some falling [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF decreased by 130.0 to - 28,974.00, while those in IH increased by 1811.0 to - 15,786.00. The net positions of the top 20 in IC and IM also increased [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of corresponding futures contracts changed, mostly decreasing [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 17,271.35 billion yuan, up 1338.16 billion yuan. Margin trading balance decreased by 20.66 billion yuan to 19,023.36 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume increased by 99.31 billion yuan to 1946.21 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 73.92%, up 25.91 percentage points. Shibor was 1.366%, down 0.096 percentage points. The closing prices and implied volatilities of call and put options changed, and the 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index increased [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares, technical, and capital indicators in the Wind analysis showed upward trends, with increases of 1.50, 2.60, and 0.50 respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of July 18, 1540 A - share listed companies announced 2025 semi - annual performance forecasts, with 674 pre - optimistic, a pre - optimistic ratio of about 43.77% [2]. - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Key economic data and events to watch include the July SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary values of France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK on July 24, the European Central Bank interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims, and the US July SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value, as well as China's June industrial enterprise profits on July 27 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position, shock - biased long trading, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market shows a shock - biased strong trend, with supply stable and demand temporarily weak during the off - season. It is advisable to conduct light - position, shock - biased long trading, controlling rhythm and risks [2]. - The cast aluminum market may face a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support and weak demand in a game. Light - position, shock - biased long trading is recommended, while controlling rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures main contracts all increased, and their positions also rose. The LME aluminum three - month quotation increased, while the LME aluminum inventory decreased. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased slightly [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between this month and next month's contracts of Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy decreased, while that of alumina increased [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy in the spot market generally increased, while the prices of some products such as LME aluminum and Shanghai - Wumao aluminum had different changes in premiums and discounts [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, and alumina all decreased [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Demand**: Alumina production increased, while capacity utilization decreased slightly. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum part increased, and the supply - demand balance was in a deficit state. The import and export volumes of aluminum waste and alumina had different changes [2]. Industrial Situation - **Supply - side**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the production of aluminum products and aluminum alloy increased. The import and export volumes of primary aluminum and aluminum products had different changes [2]. - **Demand - side**: The production of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the production of automobiles also increased [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased, while the implied volatility of the main - contract at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum decreased slightly, and the option purchase - put ratio decreased [2]. Industry News - The consumer confidence index in the US increased, and the inflation expectation decreased. The Fed official expressed concerns about tariff - driven inflation and expected a significant interest - rate cut in the next year [2]. - China's consumer market scale ranks second globally, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the high - quality development of the copper, aluminum, and gold industries and regulate the new - energy vehicle industry [2]. Alumina Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: The supply of domestic bauxite is sufficient, and the production willingness of smelters has increased. The demand for alumina is supported by the high aluminum price and the progress of an electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project in Yunnan [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars expand and then slightly converge [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: The electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project is progressing steadily, but the off - season has affected downstream consumption, and the industrial inventory has accumulated [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Similar to alumina, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars expand and then slightly converge [2]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production of casting aluminum enterprises is affected. The off - season has led to weak demand [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars expand and then slightly converge [2].