瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 国债期货周报 债市底部震荡，多头动能偏弱 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、10月9日，商务部公布对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定指出，境外特定出口经营者在向中国以外的其他国家和 地区出口前，必须获得中国商务部颁发的两用物项出口许可证件；对向境外军事用户的出口申请以及向出口管制管控名单和关注名单所 列的进口商和最终用户的出口申请，原则上不予许可；2、国家发改委、市场监管总局发布《关于治理价格无序竞争 维护良好市场价格 秩序的公告》。针对部分产业出现的无序竞争现象，《公告》提出调研评估行业平均成本、加强价格监管、规范招标投标行为等多项措 施，释放维护公平竞争的明确信号。 基本面：1、国内:1）今年国庆中秋假期消费市场增势良好。国内出游总花费8090.06亿元，较2024年国庆节假日7天增加1081.89亿元。 全国消费相关行业日均销售收入同比增长4.5%。其中，商品消费和服务消费同比分别增长3.9%和7.6 ...

供给收敛需求提振，沪铜或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 「2025.10.10」 沪铜市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线冲高回调，周线涨跌幅为+3.37%，振幅4.19%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价85910元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，矿业巨头自由港披露，其旗下印尼Grasberg矿区遭遇泥石流事故，造成人员伤亡，并且对该矿区 的开采设施造成不同程度损坏，受此影响该矿区暂停营运。国内方面，国家统计局公布，9月中国制造业PMI为49.8%，环 比上升0.4个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，上升0.1个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快。基本面矿端，TC 费用持续运行于负值区间，铜矿供给受海外矿区停工影响，令原本紧缺的供给再度收紧。供给端，在原料趋紧的背景下， 冶炼厂产能预计将有所受限，加之原料成本的上涨、冶炼副产品硫酸价格的回落，侵蚀冶炼厂利润，生产意愿亦将有所回 落，国内精铜供 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 焦煤市场周报 供应下降库存回升，盘面延续宽幅震荡 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量183.9万吨，环比减10.3万吨。 2. 314家独立洗煤厂：精煤日产26.8万吨，环比减0.7万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1969.71万吨，环比增加53.60万吨，同比增加1.28%。 4. 仓单：唐山蒙5#精煤报1422，折盘面1202 5. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利9元/吨。 6. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率56.28%，环比上周减少0.43个百分点，同比去年减少15.15个百分点。 7. 需求端铁水产量：日均铁水产量241.54万吨，环比上周减少0.27万吨，同比去年增加8.46万吨。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 「 期现市场情况」 3 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约0.83%。 行情展望：近期美棉产区降雨相对较少，利于美棉收割，新棉上市对棉价带来供应 压力。国内市场：供应端，当前棉花商业库存已降至同期低位。新疆产区籽棉收购 价格略有上涨，新疆机采棉收购价格在3.0元/斤附近，手摘棉在3.50元/斤附近，新 棉陆续上市，且新年度丰产明显，供应端压力逐渐上升。需求端，纺织厂订单仍未 见明显好转，开机率仍低于去年同期，下游传统"金九银十"旺季局面未出现。关 注节后补库及上市节奏。 策略建议，操作上，郑棉2601合约短期观望。 未来交易提示： 1、关注外棉价格变化2、需求3、库存情况 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 美棉市场 图1、CFTC美棉净持仓与ICE美棉活跃合约价格走势 图2、CFTC美棉非商业净持仓情况 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 来源 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -0.51% | | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.10%/本周变动-0.18BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.63% | | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.09% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周普遍下跌，仅上证指数微 | | 本周点评：本周国债期货涨跌不一，TF、T主力合约分 | | | 幅上涨。科创50、创业板指明显走弱跌超2%。四期指 | | 别上涨0.00%、0.09%。当前债市多空因素交织，经济 | | | 亦集体下行，中证500最为抗跌。本周，受到国庆期间 | | 数据显示"供强需弱"格局或延续，有效需求复苏基础 | | | 国内出 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro - face: Most Fed officials think further monetary easing this year may be appropriate, while a few might have supported no rate - cut in September. The US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, with expected rate cuts of 25 basis points twice by the end of this year and another 50 basis points in 2026 [3]. - Fundamental - face: In Indonesia, President Prabowo ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, which may intensify the tight supply of tin ore. Tin ore imports from Myanmar have rebounded, and short - term supply shows improvement signs, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. In the smelting sector, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream made small pre - holiday stockpiling, domestic inventory decreased, but high tin prices may suppress procurement demand. LME inventory also declined, and the spot premium remained stable. It is recommended to wait and see or hold previous long positions cautiously [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 287,090 yuan/ton, with a change of 12,020. The closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 680 yuan/ton, with a change of 760. LME 3 - month tin is at 36,250 dollars/ton, down 120. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 34,948 lots, up 6,204. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 987 lots, up 388. LME tin total inventory is 2,505 tons, up 40. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,429 tons, down 130. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 5,851 tons, up 10 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 284,200 yuan/ton, up 7,000. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 283,960 yuan/ton, up 5,500. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 2,890 yuan/ton, down 5,020. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 65.01 dollars/ton, down 73.01 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 272,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 276,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 183,870 yuan/ton, up 4,080. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that most officials are in favor of further rate cuts this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy relaxation is appropriate for the rest of the year, and inflation is expected to stay high in the short - term and then gradually fall to 2%. - China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion. - S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, and the delay in key economic data release will affect the Fed's monetary policy. Each week of shutdown may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points [3].

现小幅上行，操作上建议，逢低布局多单，注意操作风险。 免责声明 | | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17115 | 175 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2005.5 | -0.5 | | | 11-12月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -20 | 25 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 71948 | -991 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -3262 | -1196 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 30068 | 500 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 41894 | -7315 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 236075 | -625 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16800 | 0 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16990 | 100 | | | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -315 | -175 LME铅升贴 ...

白糖产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5528 | 35 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 373744 | -14293 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 8898 | -70 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -76833 | -1049 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | | | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ 吨) | 4482 | 28 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ 吨) | 4426 | 29 | | 现货市场 | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5694 | 37 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5620 | 36 | | | /吨) 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) | 5820 | 10 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) /吨) | 5800 | 2 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The market presents a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high pig slaughter volume and continued supply pressure, while terminal demand slows down after the double - festival concentrated stocking, suppressing the decline of spot prices. The main pig futures contract opened lower after the holiday, and it is expected that the pig will continue its weak and volatile market in the short term as the fundamentals of loose supply and demand are difficult to reverse [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main pig futures contract is 11,595 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan; the main contract position is 58,336 lots, down 2,769 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 32,443 lots, down 4,742 lots; the number of pig warehouse receipts is 0 [2]. Spot Price - The pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,500 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 11,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 12,100 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the main pig basis is - 95 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, an increase of 7160,000 heads; the monthly inventory of reproductive sows is 4,0380,000 heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the weekly price of binary reproductive sows is 1,548 yuan/head, a decrease of 77 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly year - on - year CPI is - 0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; the daily spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily corn spot price is 2,318.24 yuan/ton, down 50.39 yuan; the daily Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 882.73, down 0.52; the monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, an increase of 999,000 tons; the weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 236.57 yuan/head, down 37.26 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 74.11 yuan/head, down 49.67 yuan; the weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,3500,000 heads, an increase of 1840,000 heads; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - On October 9, 2025, the daily national pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 312,700 heads, a 16.61% increase from before the holiday. Group farms are actively slaughtering to meet the slaughter plan, and individual farmers are increasing slaughter due to pessimism, resulting in a high national pig slaughter volume [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The average capacity utilization rate of China's sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above increased slightly, and the overall caustic soda production capacity utilization rate increased slightly with little change. The downstream alumina device runs stably with a slight increase in the start - up rate, while the start - up rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing change slightly. During the holiday, some downstream enterprises stopped work, leading to inventory accumulation and high pressure in liquid caustic soda factories. The subsidy of liquid chlorine in Shandong cannot offset the weak caustic soda price, and the chlor - alkali profit narrows month - on - month. The expected decrease in the maintenance loss of chlor - alkali devices in October may drive up the central value of caustic soda capacity utilization. The alumina profit continues to decline and approaches the break - even line, and the short - term caustic soda consumption demand is not expected to shrink significantly. Non - aluminum downstream lacks demand improvement signals and is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There was an inventory accumulation expectation for liquid caustic soda factories during the National Day due to logistics blockages, and the inventory pressure may ease after the festival. There are new alumina device investments from the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year, giving an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the long - term. Technically, the short - term market trend of SH2601 is bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract is 102,719 lots, an increase of 18,857 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 2697 lots, a decrease of 3064 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 290,860 lots, an increase of 116,592 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract is 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu is 940 yuan/ton with no change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis of caustic soda is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu is - 75 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,120 yuan/ton with no change, and the spot price of alumina is 2885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 19th to 25th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises was 82.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. From September 27th to October 3rd, the national alumina start - up rate was 86.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. From September 26th to October 9th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate decreased by 0.19% month - on - month to 89.63%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate increased by 0.47% month - on - month to 66.63%. As of October 9th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56%. From September 19th to 25th, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 258 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease [3].