Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Precious Metals Market Weekly Report" [2] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Authors: Researcher Liao Hongbin, Assistant Researcher Xu Dingfeng [3] Group 2: Weekly Key Points Summary - Tariff situation heats up as the US will impose a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives from January 15, 2026, which may marginally increase the risk - aversion premium [5] - US PPI and core PPI in November 2025 both rose 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%, with rising energy costs being the main driver [5] - The US Department of Justice plans to conduct a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, but Trump has no plan to fire him, easing market concerns [5] - The December non - farm payrolls were less than expected, indicating a cooling US labor market, leading traders to expect three interest rate cuts this year, possibly starting before May [5] - The Middle East situation has a temporary easing, but geopolitical risks remain high due to Iran's threat to US military bases and sporadic escalation in the Russia - Ukraine front [5] - In the medium term, the bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy on dips in the long - term, while being cautious of short - term corrections [5] - The resistance level for London Gold is 4650 US dollars per ounce, and the support level is 4300 US dollars per ounce; for London Silver, the resistance level is 95 US dollars per ounce, and the support level is 70 US dollars per ounce [5] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market - The precious metals market continued to be strong this week, with a continuous short - squeeze in the silver market [6] - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract 2604 closed at 22,483 yuan per kilogram, up 20.03% for the week; the Shanghai Gold main contract 2604 closed at 1,032.32 yuan per gram, up 2.57% for the week [10] - This week, the net position of foreign gold ETFs increased, while that of silver decreased. As of January 15, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,074.80 tons, up 0.72% month - on - month; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,062 tons, down 0.90% month - on - month [11][15] - As of January 6, 2025 (the latest), both COMEX gold and silver net long positions decreased. The COMEX gold net position was 227,632 contracts, down 1.50% month - on - month; the COMEX silver net position was 29,271 contracts, down 2.63% month - on - month [16][20] - This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened. As of January 15, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 6.74 yuan per gram, with a basis rate of - 0.65%; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 210 yuan per kilogram, with a basis rate of - 0.93% [21][23] - This week, the gold and silver inventories in domestic and foreign exchanges decreased. As of January 15, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36,132,901.14 ounces, down 0.70% month - on - month; the SHFE gold inventory was 97,653 kilograms, down 0.05% month - on - month; the COMEX silver inventory was 435,671,453 ounces, down 3.0% month - on - month; the SHFE silver inventory was 620,262 kilograms, down 10.30% month - on - month [24][28] Group 4: Silver Industry Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of silver and silver ore sand increased. The import volume of Chinese silver was 263,505.88 kilograms, up 9.90% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 180,915,984 kilograms, up 21.23% month - on - month [30][34] - Due to the increasing demand for silver in the semiconductor industry, the production of integrated circuits has been rising, and the year - on - year growth rate has stabilized. As of November 2025, the monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,390,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.6% [36][40] Group 5: Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total demand for silver was 1,164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [42][44] - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply and demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver, while the investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. As of the end of 2024, the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month. The World Silver Institute predicted that the global total silver supply in 2025 would increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces; the global total silver demand would decrease by 4% year - on - year to about 1,120 million ounces; the supply - demand gap in 2025 was expected to narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a decrease of about 53% month - on - month [48][50] Group 6: Gold Supply and Demand - The investment demand for gold ETFs has increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continue to buy gold [52] Group 7: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound from the low level within the oscillation range [56] - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility decreased [61] - This week, the US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly [65] - In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons of gold respectively [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.59%, and the far - month contracts fell between 3% and 8%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1956.39, up 160.56 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.9% [6][39]. - The cancellation of the full - refund of value - added tax on photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. However, after the trading sentiment stabilizes, the price increase fades, and the support from the spot side weakens, causing the futures price to decline [6][39]. - China's foreign trade level in December 2026 rebounded beyond expectations, with significant improvements in both imports and exports, possibly related to the cancellation of value - added tax export rebates for some commodities and pre - holiday rush exports. China's exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [6][39]. - Spot freight rates for the fourth week were between $2600 - $3200 for large containers. Maersk's large container price in the fourth week was $2700, up $100 from the third week [6][39]. - Geopolitically, there are expectations of an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation has improved. Eurozone inflation pressure has eased, weakening the market's expectation of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank before the end of the year [6][39]. - Overall, the announced freight rate increase has not been implemented, many shipping companies have successively lowered prices, weakening the support for futures prices. The effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy on rush exports has also quickly weakened after the trading sentiment cooled. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of shipping companies' announced price increases. Although trade relations are gradually improving, China's exports to the US are still under pressure, and the boost from the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious [7][40]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2602 fell 1.13%, EC2604 fell 2.59%, EC2606 fell 7.67%, EC2608 fell 3.61%, EC2610 fell 4.69%, and EC2612 fell 4.22%. The SCFIS index rose 8.9% [10]. - The price of the main contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first rose and then fell this week. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2604 contract showed differentiation [13][15]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The central bank took measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering re - loan and re - discount rates, increasing various loan quotas, and adjusting the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [19]. - The US will impose a 25% import ad - valorem tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from January 15 [19]. - The World Bank raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. It predicted that the US GDP growth rate will reach 2.2% in 2026, while the economic growth rates of the Eurozone and Japan will slow down [19]. - The EU will issue a guidance document on price commitment applications for the China - EU electric vehicle case, and China's electromechanical chamber of commerce will encourage and support relevant enterprises to apply for price commitments [19]. 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and price difference of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts shrank this week [26]. - The export container freight rate index rebounded slightly this week [27]. - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the shipping capacity on the European line rebounded slightly. The BDI and BPI declined this week, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [31]. - The charter price of Panamax ships declined this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [34]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined this week. The cancellation of the full - refund of value - added tax on photovoltaic products led to short - term price increases, but the effect weakened later. China's foreign trade improved in December, and spot freight rates increased slightly. Geopolitical factors improved the expectation of the Red Sea's resumption of navigation, and Eurozone inflation pressure eased [39]. - The announced freight rate increase has not been implemented, and the support for futures prices has weakened. The boost from the traditional peak season may be weaker than expected. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [40].

Report Overview - Report Title: Egg Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Xu Fangli [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a state of game between weak reality and strong expectations. The near - term contracts may be in a wide - range low - level oscillation in the short term, while the far - term contracts are expected to perform better due to the expected decline in production capacity. It is recommended to lightly test long positions in far - term contracts [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: This week, the egg price fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 3072 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 32 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6] - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the elimination of old chickens. The egg - laying hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market sentiment has slightly improved. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the recent continuous rise in egg prices has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for eliminating old chickens. High production capacity still restricts the performance of near - month market prices [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures March contract oscillated and rebounded. The holding volume was 263,198 lots, an increase of 12,344 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 changed from net short to net long, with a net position of + 1787 (last week was - 18,655) [13] - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16] - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3644 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 342 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at + 572 yuan per ton [22] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 511 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was generally at a low level in the same period [26] - **Related Product Spot Price**: As of January 15, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.5 yuan per kilogram [32] 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - side Inventory and Replenishment**: As of November 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 112.03, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%. The national new - chick index was reported at 93.62, a month - on - month increase of 39.54% [38] - **Laying - hen Elimination**: As of November 30, 2025, the national elimination - laying - hen index was reported at 101.18, a month - on - month decrease of 11.59%. The national elimination - chicken age was reported at 500 days [43] - **Feed Raw Material Price**: As of January 15, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2363.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3160 yuan per ton [47] - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of January 9, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.29 yuan per chicken, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [54] - **Egg - laying Hen Chick and Elimination - chicken Price**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.9 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination chickens in the main production areas was reported at 8.16 yuan per kilogram [58] - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In November 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,045.52 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.13% (compared to 11,953.66 tons in the same period last year) and a month - on - month decrease of 349.02 tons (compared to 13,394.53 tons in the previous month) [62] 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: The report shows the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [64]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01. 16」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 本周观点：本周广期所铂钯金主力合约区间震荡运行。宏观方面，美国去年11月PPI数据略高于预期，12月 CPI通胀走势延续温和态势，非农就业新增不及预期，年内50-75基点的降息空间仍存，联储扩表计划提振流 动性宽松叙事。供应端方面，俄罗斯矿业巨头诺里尔斯克净利同比骤降37%，并继续将销售重心东移以对冲 西方买家的规避情绪，引发市场对2026年钯金出口可靠性的再度担忧。南非方面，自去年 5 月中旬以来官 方已连续103天暂停强制性负荷削减，电力供应稳定度为近四年以来的最佳水平，令铂矿山短期停产概率显 著下降，但长期维护积压问题仍未根除。整体来看，2026年全球铂矿产量恢复速度仍落后于需求修复，世界 铂金投资协会(WPIC)继续预测供需缺口延续以及地上库存持续耗减的态势。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.16」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除上证指数下跌外，其余指数均有不同程度上涨。 四期指亦表现分化，中小盘股强于大盘蓝筹股。本周，海内外有大量经济数据公布，周一公 布的12月通胀数据进一步修复带动市场上行；周三公布的进出口数据显示，2025年我国贸易 顺差创出历史记录，净出口强劲同样支撑股市，股指盘中再创高位，然而随着午后，沪深北 交所宣布提高融资保证金比例，市场情绪降温，股指高位回落。本周，市场成交活跃度较上 周进一步上升。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收1.27盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -0.43 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the raw material price is falling and supply is increasing, while demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry is stable. The recommendation is to trade the main alumina contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable but demand is cautious due to the off - season and high prices. The suggestion is to trade the main Shanghai aluminum contract with a light position in a weakly volatile way, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum, the supply is converging and demand is weakening. It is recommended to trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a weakly volatile way, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering the potential increase in aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on volatility expansion in the options market [69]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum fell from a high, with a weekly change of - 1.66% to 23925 yuan/ton; alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 3.24% to 2751 yuan/ton; cast aluminum's main contract rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 1.09% to 22735 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Market Outlook and Views**: Alumina has an oversupply situation with stable demand; electrolytic aluminum has stable supply and cautious demand; cast aluminum has converging supply and weakening demand. Corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [5][7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Aluminum Futures**: As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 23850 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton (2.47%) from January 9; the LME aluminum closing price on January 15 was 3167.5 dollars/ton, up 76.5 dollars/ton (2.47%) from January 9; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.63, down 0.22 from January 9 [10][11]. - **Alumina and Cast Aluminum Futures**: As of January 16, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2627 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.61%) from January 9; the cast aluminum alloy's main closing price was 22735 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton (1.09%) from January 9 [14]. - **Shanghai Aluminum Positions**: As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 697874 lots, down 40763 lots (5.52%) from January 9; the net position of the top 20 was 4602 lots, up 87729 lots from January 9 [17]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of January 16, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 825 yuan/ton, up 1185 yuan/ton from January 9; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 76845 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton from January 9 [20]. - **Spot Markets**: Alumina spot prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang fell; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose; the A00 aluminum ingot spot price fell, and the spot discount increased [24][27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, the SHFE inventory and domestic social inventory increased; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [30]. - **Bauxite**: The import volume of bauxite in November 2025 increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the nine - port inventory increased [35]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price in Shandong fell, the import volume increased in November 2025, and the export volume decreased [39]. - **Alumina**: The alumina output in November 2025 increased year - on - year, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased [42]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum import volume in November 2025 decreased year - on - year, the output increased year - on - year, the in - production capacity, total capacity, and operating rate increased in December 2025 [45][49]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total output of aluminum products in November 2025 decreased year - on - year, and both imports and exports decreased [53]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production capacity of cast aluminum alloy decreased in December 2025 compared to the same period last year, and the output decreased [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total output of aluminum alloy in November 2025 increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and exports increased [59]. - **Real Estate**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index declined, and the new construction and completion areas from January to November 2024 decreased year - on - year [62]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment increased from January to November 2025; automobile sales and production in December 2025 decreased year - on - year [65]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the potential increase in aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on volatility expansion [69].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.16」 国债期货周报 结构性降息落地，期债偏强震荡 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 政策及监管：1、沪深北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%。此次调整仅 限于新开融资合约，调整实施前已存续的融资合约及其展期仍按照调整前的相关规定执行；2、央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中 包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元，总额度中单设1万 亿元民营企业再贷款，重点支持中小民营企业；科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度增加4000亿元并扩大支持范围；拓展碳减排支持工具支持领域； 将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%。央行表示，今年降准降息还有一定空间；3、财政部、税务总局发布公告，自2026年1月1日起至 2027年12月31日止，对境外机构投资境内债券市场取得的债券利息收入暂免征收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will undergo wide - range adjustments in the short term, with attention on the MA10 support, in the range of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Stainless steel futures prices are expected to adjust strongly, with the range to be concerned about 14,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton [9] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - ly Highlights Summary 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of +1.62% and an amplitude of 9.79%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 141,350 yuan/ton [9] - Macroscopically, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the re - lending and rediscount rates by 25 basis points, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased to 198,000, and the US dollar rebounded to a more than one - month high [9] - Fundamentally, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons next year, causing market concerns about raw material supply. It is expected that the supply will be relatively loose in the first quarter. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and recently the nickel price has rebounded, with profits repaired. It is expected that the subsequent production of refined nickel will rise again. In terms of demand, the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [9] - Technically, the price is adjusted at a high position of positions, with large differences between long and short positions. There is resistance above, and it is expected to be mainly in wide - range adjustment [9] 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - This week, stainless steel rose first and then pulled back, with a weekly increase of +2.99% and an amplitude of 6.60%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 14,275 yuan/ton [9] - In terms of raw materials, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the grade of nickel ore is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year. Under the situation of shrinking raw material supply, nickel - iron production will face production - cut pressure [9] - In terms of supply, the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure still exists. In terms of demand, downstream demand is gradually turning to the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel shows a downward trend. The impact of previous export squeezing is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance are average. However, the market arrivals are also not many, so the national social inventory of stainless steel maintains a seasonal small decline [9] - Technically, the price is strong with an increase in positions, and the long sentiment is strong [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - As of January 9, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 139,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,240 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 735 yuan/ton from last week [15] - As of January 9, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 965 yuan/nickel, an increase of 50 yuan/nickel from last week [15] 3.2.2 Basis - As of January 9, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 141,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,810 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 14,350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 490 yuan/ton [20] 3.2.3 Price Ratios - As of January 9, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 10.04, a decrease of 0.09 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1 from last week [27] 3.2.4 Net Long Positions of the Top 20 - As of January 16, 2026, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 78,736 lots, a decrease of 6,275 lots compared with January 12, 2026. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 9,792 lots, a decrease of 1,029 lots compared with January 12, 2026 [33] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - Nickel ore port inventory decreased. As of January 9, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 13.1977 million tons, a decrease of 122,600 tons from last week [38] - The production profit of electrowinning nickel was profitable but decreased. As of January 9, the production profit of electrowinning nickel was 10,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,650 yuan/ton from last week [39] - Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased and imports decreased. In December 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 29,058 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16%. In November 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 12,840.486 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.18%; from January to November, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 209,244.351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 157.2% [44] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the LME nickel inventory increased slowly. As of January 2, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, an increase of 1,090 tons from last week. As of December 31, the LME nickel inventory was 255,186 tons, an increase of 426 tons from last week [51][52] 3.3.2 Demand Side - The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly, and the export volume decreased. In December 2025, the total stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.66%. Among them, the production of 400 - series was 572,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.91%; the production of 300 - series was 1.7472 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%; the production of 200 - series was 940,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.74%. In November 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 109,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,600 tons; the export volume was 333,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons. In January, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.4695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 223,900 tons [55] - The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi showed a downward trend. As of December 26, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 264,500 tons, a decrease of 21,646 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 544,038 tons, a decrease of 9,489 tons from last week [60] - The stainless steel production profit increased. As of January 9, the stainless steel production profit was 377 yuan/ton, an increase of 439 yuan/ton from last week [64] - The real estate industry was in a weak downward trend, and the home appliance industry showed a decline. From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; real estate development investment was 785.909 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.64%; the household refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.67%; the household washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.96%; the freezer production was 2.619 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.17% [68] - The automobile industry performed well, and the machinery industry stabilized and improved. In November 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 3.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%; the sales volume was 3.429 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%. In November 2025, the excavator production was 33,623 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; the large - and medium - sized tractor production was 22,592 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.11%; the small - tractor production was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of approximately 0.57%. In December 2025, both the sugar cane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region decreased year - on - year. The domestic market is in the peak of the 2025/26 sugar cane crushing season, with overall data being slightly bearish. Although downstream stocking has started and food processing enterprises' procurement has increased, the overall increase is limited. Against the background of an expected increase in production, sugar prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term [5][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.57% [5][17]. - **Market Outlook**: In the first half of December 2025, Brazil's central - southern region crushed 5.92 million tons of sugar cane, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%, and produced 254,200 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 28.80%. In the domestic market, during the 2025/26 sugar cane crushing season, sugar production and sales in Guangxi in December decreased year - on - year, while Yunnan's sugar production progress was faster and sales were slightly better than the same period last year. Downstream stocking has started, but the overall increase in procurement by food processing enterprises is limited. Sugar prices lack the motivation to rebound and are expected to remain volatile [5]. - **Future Focus Factors**: Domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.01%. As of January 6, 2026, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 154,098 lots, an increase of 16,276 lots from the previous week. Long positions decreased by 8,581 lots, and short positions increased by 76,950 lots [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: The international raw sugar spot price this week was 14.72 cents per pound, an increase of 0.32 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.57%. The top twenty net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 72,594 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 14,126 [17][25]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread and Basis**: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 9 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 132 yuan/ton [29]. - **Spot Market Price**: As of January 16, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,390 yuan/ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,370 yuan/ton [36]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,388 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 259 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 193 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan/ton from last week [42]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - **Production**: Not detailed in the report about overall production situation, but mentioned the situation of Brazil and domestic regions. - **Industrial Inventory**: Not detailed in the report. - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [51]. - **Demand Side** - **Sales Rate**: The sugar sales rate is average, but no detailed data is provided. - **Production of Finished Sugar and Soft Drinks**: In November 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [59]. 4. Options and Stock - Related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week was mentioned, but no detailed data was provided. - **Stock Market**: The price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but no specific analysis was given.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of approximately 0.58%. The US cotton 3 - month contract price rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.23%. The 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales and shipments showed positive trends. In the domestic market, the national commercial cotton inventory continued to rise, and the market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream demand was generally weak, but the yarn price remained stable due to cost - driven factors. The 12 - month textile and clothing export growth rate rebounded. The previous expectation of reduced cotton planting area has been reflected in the market, and it is expected to enter an adjustment phase in the short term [5][11][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased, with a weekly decline of approximately 0.58% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: US cotton export sales and shipments were strong. In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak but supported by cost and export data. The market is expected to enter an adjustment phase in the short term [5]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The US cotton 3 - month contract price rose by about 0.23% this week. As of January 6, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 81,409 lots, an increase of 247 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 110,329 lots, a decrease of 1,790 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 28,920 lots, a decrease of 2,037 lots from the previous week [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of January 8, the net increase in 2025/26 US upland cotton export sales was 339,700 bales, a record high for the year. The international cotton spot price this week was 75.05 cents per pound, unchanged from last week [16]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract decreased by about 0.58% this week, and the yarn futures 2603 contract decreased by 0.75%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 168,795 lots, and those in yarn futures were - 1,467 lots. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures warehouse receipts were 9,666, and the yarn futures warehouse receipts were 70 [19][25][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 16, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,931 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese yarn C32S was 21,300 yuan per ton. The 5 - 9 contract spread of Zhengzhou cotton was - 155 yuan per ton, and the spot price spread between cotton 3128B and yarn C32S was 5,369 yuan per ton [35][40][51]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of January 15, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,735 yuan per ton, a decrease of 19 yuan per ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was 12,616 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton from last week. The import yarn price index showed different prices for different varieties [55]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of January 15, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,235 yuan per ton, an increase of 205 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,629 yuan per ton, an increase of 204 yuan per ton from last week [58]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. The in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. In November 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. The imported yarn volume in November 2025 was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [63][70]. - **Mid - End Industry**: As of the end of November, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In December 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%, and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [79][83]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the report, but no specific data is provided [84]. - **Stock Market**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [87].