山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月26日16时51分 投资咨询系列报告 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金强银弱，沪金主力收涨0.28%，沪银主力收涨0.11%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈开启，避险需 求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，特朗普宣布撤销美联储理事库克职 务，引发美联储独立性担忧，但库克拒绝辞职。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方面， 鲍威尔暗示美联储可能需要降息，但将谨慎行事。鲍威尔宣布美联储最新政策框架，回归灵活通胀目标。美国7月新屋销售减少， 仍然高企的抵押贷款利率抑制楼市需求。目前市场预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至80%以上，且年内降息次 数预期从1次涨至2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格 。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

投资咨询系列报告 今日贵金属低位上行，沪金主力收涨0.46%，沪银主力收涨1.89%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈开启，避险需 求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，美俄领导人时隔六年首次会晤，特朗 普称"富有成效"，承诺为乌克兰安全提供保障。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方 面，鲍威尔暗示美联储可能需要降息，但将谨慎行事。鲍威尔宣布美联储最新政策框架，回归灵活通胀目标。美国7月零售销售强 劲增长，美国7月批发价格跳涨，美联储降息路线图增添变数。目前市场预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至 80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压， 人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The main reasons were the continuous decline in safe - haven demand, the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict (although there were still uncertainties), and the "dampening" of the September interest - rate cut expectation by three Fed officials before Powell's speech. The initial jobless claims in the US last week reached the largest increase in about three months, the labor market remained weak, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields were strong. The expectation of a September interest - rate cut by the Fed dropped from 85% to around 71%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year decreased from 3 to 2. It is expected that precious metals will be weak and volatile in the short term. In the medium and long term, the rising risk of economic recession may force the Fed to cut interest rates, and the precious metals' long - term upward trend remains due to the "de - dollarization" process. The Fed's Powell may cool down the interest - rate cut expectation at the global central bank annual meeting, and investors are advised to manage risks in advance [5]. - After the non - farm payrolls report, many Fed officials still believed that they were not ready to change their economic outlook before seeing more data. The September interest - rate cut was not certain. Powell at the global central bank annual meeting might suppress the current aggressive interest - rate cut expectation in the market. Technically, London gold returned to the lower edge of the triangular pattern, and there was a risk of a short - term downward break, with an expected trend of falling first and then rising [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Safe - Haven Attribute - There were still uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the risk of geopolitical conflict remained. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Russia's large - scale attacks in multiple regions of Ukraine overnight showed that Moscow was avoiding negotiations to end the war [1]. - The Trump trade war entered a new stage. White House officials said that Trump had signed an executive order, and the truce period of China - US tariffs was extended by another 90 days [1]. 2. Monetary Attribute - This week, several Fed officials "dampened" the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. The initial jobless claims in the US last week reached the largest increase in about three months, and the labor market remained weak. The Fed meeting minutes showed that only two policymakers supported an interest - rate cut at the July meeting. US retail sales in July increased strongly, and wholesale prices jumped, adding uncertainties to the Fed's interest - rate cut roadmap [2]. - After the non - farm payrolls report, there were still differences within the Fed. The expectation of a September interest - rate cut by the Fed dropped from 85% to around 71%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year decreased from 3 to 2. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance in their downward movement and were strong [2]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Although gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other products offset some of the impact. Emerging market central banks, including the People's Bank of China, promoted the central bank's gold - buying demand to remain at a high level through the "de - dollarization" strategy [2]. - The World Silver Association expected that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 would narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) [2]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds continued to be reduced; the net long positions of domestic Shanghai gold futures companies at a high level were continuously reduced, and the net long positions of Shanghai silver were slightly increased at a low level; the world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF ended their long - term downward trend and slowly increased their positions [3]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution No relevant content provided. 6. Strategy - Short - term: Weak and volatile. - Medium - term: High - level volatility. - Long - term: Step - by - step upward [5]. 7. Support and Resistance - Shanghai gold main contract: Support at 760 - 765, resistance at 780 - 785. - Shanghai silver main contract: Support at 9000 - 9030, resistance at 9400 - 9430 [5]. 8. 2024 - 2025 Fed Monetary Policy Path Review - In June 2014, the Fed kept the interest rate policy unchanged, but the updated dot - plot suggested a significant reduction in the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year, from three to one [7]. - In July 2014, the Fed continued to keep the interest rate unchanged, confirmed progress in inflation reduction, and mentioned that interest - rate cuts might be an option in September [7]. - In September 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the target range of the Fed's benchmark interest rate was expected to be further reduced by the end of the year and in 2025 and 2026 [7]. - In November 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement removed the expression about "gaining confidence in the fight against inflation" [8][9]. - In December 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the new dot - plot showed that policymakers expected only two 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025 [9]. - In January 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged for the first time since starting the interest - rate cut cycle in September 2014, and the policy statement removed the expression about "progress in inflation towards the target" [9]. - In March 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the balance - sheet reduction rhythm from April 1, and expected two interest - rate cuts this year, but the number of those who expected no interest - rate cuts increased [9]. - In May 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, and the FOMC statement said that the uncertainty of the economic outlook increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation both increased [9]. - In June 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, expected a slowdown in economic growth this year, an increase in the unemployment rate and inflation, and a slight slowdown in the interest - rate cut pace [9]. 9. Precious Metals Commonly Used Database (1) Monetary Attribute - Multiple aspects of US economic data were presented, including inflation (CPI, PCE, etc.), economic growth (GDP), employment (unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, etc.), real estate (housing market index, new home sales, etc.), consumption (retailer sales, personal consumption expenditure, etc.), industry (industrial production index, durable goods orders, etc.), trade (trade balance), economic leading indicators (PMI, consumer confidence index, etc.), and key indicators (US Treasury yields, US dollar index, etc.). Also, the Fed's monetary policy tracking data was provided [11][15][21][26][35][46][47][55][59][68]. (2) Safe - Haven Attribute - The volatility of the US stock market was presented, specifically the relationship between the S&P 500 index and the volatility index (VIX) [69][71]. (3) Commodity Attribute - The trends of the offshore RMB, CRB commodity index, and their relationships with precious metals were presented, including the relationship between the CRB commodity price index, Shanghai gold main contract closing price, and offshore RMB exchange rate, as well as the relationship between the US dollar against the offshore RMB and the China - US ten - year Treasury yield spread [72][73]. (4) Capital Flow - The net positions of CFTC managed funds and the positions of gold and silver ETFs were presented [74][77].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the steel sector, the recovery of future demand may fall short of expectations due to the real - estate market still being in the process of bottom - building, and futures prices are under downward pressure. The short - term prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may stabilize, and the medium - term trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation. For iron ore, although there is room for an increase in steel mill's molten iron production after the military parade, the room for further increase is limited, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, apparent demand has increased from a decline, factory inventory has increased for the third consecutive week, and social inventory has increased for the sixth consecutive week. The total production and inventory of the five major steel varieties have increased, and apparent demand has also risen. With the end of the summer heat, apparent demand should gradually recover, and total inventory is expected to gradually decline [2] - **Technical analysis**: After a sharp decline, rebar and hot - rolled coils have stabilized and rebounded, with a decrease in open interest. Short - term prices may stabilize, and the medium - term will maintain a wide - range oscillation [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and patiently wait for a rebound to short [2] - **Data summary**: Various data such as futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are presented in detail, including changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [2] Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased. The molten iron production of 247 steel mills has increased slightly. After the military parade, there is room for an increase in molten iron production, but the room for further increase is limited. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 01 contract has stabilized near the middle track of the daily K - line Bollinger Band. Short - term prices may rebound to the upper track, but the overall Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium - term trend is likely to be oscillatory [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Close short positions in the short - term and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4] - **Data summary**: Comprehensive data on iron ore, including spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipment, freight, arrivals, inventory, etc., are provided, along with changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [4] Industry News - As of August 2025, 20 distressed real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved, with a total debt resolution scale exceeding 120 billion yuan. Since 2022, 27 listed real - estate enterprises have been delisted passively, and several others have delisted through privatization [6] - Chengdu has introduced a new housing provident fund policy, with preferential measures for purchasing affordable housing [6] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of coke [6] - The online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT company on August 21 ended in failure [6] - As of the week of August 21, rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, and apparent demand has increased from a decline [6] - As of August 21, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of the float - glass industry have remained stable, and the daily output has remained at the highest level of the year [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks start, the risk - aversion demand declines, the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rebounds. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, highly volatile in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1] - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of funds, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were weakly volatile. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.30%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.63% [1] - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements, Russia - Ukraine talks, and reduced risk - aversion demand; increased stagflation risk in the US economy, weakening employment, moderate inflation, and a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [1] - **Attribute Analysis** - **Risk - aversion**: The meeting between US and Russian leaders was considered "productive", and the US - China tariff truce was extended by 90 days [1] - **Monetary**: Only two Fed policymakers supported an interest - rate cut in July. US retail sales and wholesale prices in July increased strongly. The market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in September has soared from about 40% to over 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year has risen from 1 to 2 - 3 times [1] - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index's rebound was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2] 2. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price [5] - **Fund and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets are 66946.22 billion US dollars, with a slight increase [8] - **Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and other indicators have changed to varying degrees. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 1.15% compared with the previous day [8] - **US Economic Data**: In terms of inflation, employment, consumption, and other aspects, there are different degrees of changes. For example, the CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, and the unemployment rate is 4.20% [8][9] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves are 2300.41 tons, with a slight increase; the US is 8133.46 tons, unchanged [9] - **Other Indicators**: The geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, etc. have also changed [9] 4. Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 is provided. For example, the probability of an interest - rate range of 300 - 325 at the September 17, 2025 meeting is 81.2% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.13%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.25%. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks have begun, and the risk - aversion demand has declined. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation has been moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have rebounded [2]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the leaders of the US and Russia had their first meeting in six years, and Trump said it was "productive" and promised to provide security guarantees for Ukraine. White House officials said Trump had signed an executive order to extend the China - US tariff truce for another 90 days [2]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, US retail sales in July grew strongly, and wholesale prices jumped, adding uncertainties to the Fed's interest - rate cut roadmap. The US PPI in July rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest monthly increase in three years. The US CPI inflation in July was moderate, the CPI met expectations but the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.9%. Currently, the market expects the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to soar from about 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields rebounded after encountering resistance [2]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [2]. - Precious metals are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver increased slightly [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.13%, and international and domestic gold prices showed different trends. For example, the Comex gold主力合约收盘价 was $3358.90 per ounce, down $19.10 (-0.57%) from the previous day and down $40.70 (-1.20%) from the previous week [2][3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. - **Related Data**: Various data such as price, basis, spread, open interest, inventory, CFTC management fund net position, and gold ETF are presented in detail in the report [3]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, showing the changes in positions of different companies [4]. Silver - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 0.25%, and international and domestic silver prices also had different changes. For example, the Comex silver主力合约收盘价 was $37.33 per ounce, down $0.73 (-1.93%) from the previous day and down $0.61 (-1.61%) from the previous week [2][7]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit [7]. - **Related Data**: Data including price, basis, spread, open interest, inventory, CFTC management fund net position, and silver ETF are provided [7]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are shown, along with the changes in positions of each company [8]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: It includes federal fund target rate, discount rate, Fed total assets, M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data [9][11][12]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves of different countries, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, gold/foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB data are also presented [13]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: The expected probabilities of different interest - rate ranges in Fed meetings from 2025 to 2026 are provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [14].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the steel sector, the "anti - involution" hype has cooled down, and the market is now focusing on peak - season demand. If the demand recovery in the peak season is slow or lower than expected, steel futures prices will face significant downward pressure. Currently, the decline in apparent demand is pressuring steel futures prices, and both rebar and hot - rolled coils are facing short - term downward pressure [2]. - For the iron ore sector, although steel mills' profitability is still acceptable, the profit margin has slightly decreased due to the sharp rise in coke prices. Steel mills' molten iron production has room to increase after the National Day parade as the consumption peak season approaches, but the upward space is limited as the current production is already at a relatively high level. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventories are showing signs of stabilization, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation during the consumption peak season. Iron ore futures prices are facing short - term correction pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The "anti - involution" hype has cooled, and the market focuses on peak - season demand. According to seasonal demand patterns, apparent demand should gradually recover and total inventory should decline after the end of the summer heat. However, last week's data showed that rebar production and apparent demand decreased, factory and social inventories increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products declined, putting pressure on futures prices [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are oscillating downward, and the overall commodity market is weak. Rebar and hot - rolled coils still face short - term downward pressure [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions. Short - term short positions should be closed at low prices this week, and short positions can be re - established when prices rebound [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices generally declined compared to the previous day and week. For example, the rebar futures main contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed various changes. For example, the rebar futures 10 - 1 spread was - 82 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and down 4 yuan from the previous week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of rebar decreased slightly, while hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The total inventory of the five major steel products and the inventory of rebar increased, while the hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, but the profit margin has decreased due to the rise in coke prices. Molten iron production has room to increase after the National Day parade, but the upward space is limited. Global shipments are high, and future arrivals are expected to increase. Port inventories are stabilizing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation during the peak season [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices rebounded in the short - term but encountered resistance and fell back. They are maintaining a high - level wide - range oscillation and may form a double - top pattern, facing significant short - term correction pressure [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions. Close short positions in time if there is a significant decline, and conduct short - term trading [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron ore spot and futures prices generally declined compared to the previous day and week. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settled at 771 yuan/dry ton, down 0.13% from the previous day and 3.75% from the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of iron ore showed different trends. For example, the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 17.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.5 yuan from the previous day and 12 yuan from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas shipments from Australia decreased, while those from Brazil increased. The arrival volume at northern ports and the daily port clearance volume increased. Port inventories and trade inventories increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a 50% tax rate, covering a wide range of products such as wind turbines, mobile cranes, etc., aiming to protect domestic manufacturing and reduce import dependence [6]. - BHP Billiton reported that its attributable profit in fiscal year 2025 was 9.2 billion US dollars, a 14% year - on - year increase, while the adjusted attributable profit decreased by 26% to 10.2 billion US dollars, and revenue fell 8% to 51.3 billion US dollars [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 144.424 million tons, an increase of 418,200 tons from the previous Monday. The inventory increase was mainly concentrated in East China, South China, and the Yangtze River Basin [7]. - Some independent strip steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan have received environmental protection shutdown and production - restriction notices from August 20th to September 3rd, which is expected to reduce the daily output of 10 local billet - adjusted strip steel enterprises by about 500 tons [7]. - Shanxi Meijin Iron and Steel plans to resume production of a 1080m³ blast furnace on August 22nd, with an expected daily increase in molten iron production of about 300 tons [8].

一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收跌0.13%，沪银主力收跌0.25%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈开启，避险需 求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，美俄领导人时隔六年首次会晤，特朗 普称"富有成效"，承诺为乌克兰安全提供保障。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方 面，美国7月零售销售强劲增长，美国7月批发价格跳涨，美联储降息路线图增添变数。美国7月PPI环比上涨0.9%，创三年来最大 环比涨幅，涨幅远大于经济学家的预期。美国7月CPI通胀温和，CPI符合预期但核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，高于前值2.9%。目前市场 预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率 遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长 期阶梯上行。 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月19日16时55分 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and fluctuating trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing up 0.32% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing up 0.54%. The short - term core logic is that the phased achievement of trade agreements and the start of Russia - Ukraine talks have led to a decline in safe - haven demand, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, inflation has been moderate, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts has rebounded. It is expected that precious metals will be weak and fluctuating in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Shanghai Gold main contract closed up 0.32%, and relevant international and domestic gold prices showed different changes. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3381.70 per ounce, down 0.02% from the previous day and 2.21% from last week; the Shanghai Gold main contract (SHFE) closed at 777.66 yuan per gram, up 0.24% from the previous day and down 0.23% from last week [1][2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements and Russia - Ukraine talks have reduced safe - haven demand. The US economy faces stagflation risks, with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to a rebound in Fed rate - cut expectations. In terms of safe - haven attributes, meetings between US and Russian leaders and tariff truces have affected the market. In terms of monetary attributes, strong US retail sales and rising wholesale prices in July have added uncertainties to the Fed's rate - cut roadmap. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has soared from about 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. In terms of commodity attributes, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. Silver - **Market Performance**: Shanghai Silver main contract closed up 0.54%. The Comex silver main contract closed at $38.02 per ounce, down 0.04% from the previous day and 1.27% from last week; the Shanghai Silver main contract (SHFE) closed at 9258 yuan per kilogram, up 0.59% from the previous day and 0.52% from last week [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The price of gold is the anchor for silver prices. There has been a slight reduction in the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF, and a slight increase in visible silver inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to the gold strategy, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $66946.22 billion. M2 growth rate is 4.54% year - on - year [8]. - **Interest Rate and Yield Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59%, the US dollar index is 97.85, the US Treasury spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.55, and other spreads and yield curves also show different changes [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI is 2.70% year - on - year and 0.20% month - on - month, core CPI is 3.10% year - on - year, and other inflation - related indicators such as PCE price index also have corresponding values [10]. - **Economic Growth and Employment Data**: GDP growth rate is 1.90% annualized year - on - year and 3.00% annualized quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate is 4.20%, and other employment - related data such as non - farm payrolls and labor participation rate also show changes [10]. - **Other Data**: There are data on the US real estate market, consumption, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, and IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios [10][11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate ranges for different meeting dates from September 2025 to December 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's future interest rate adjustments [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market showed a weak and volatile trend this week due to the decline in safe - haven demand, the phased achievement of short - term trade agreements, and the upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks. The short - term outlook is still weak and volatile, but in the long - term, the upward trend of precious metals remains due to the increasing risk of economic recession and the "de - dollarization" process [6]. - After the non - farm payrolls data, there are still differences within the Fed. The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has soared, but it is not certain. Next week, the precious metals market will face a major test at the global central bank annual meeting, and Powell may dampen the market's current aggressive interest rate cut expectations [3][6][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Currency Attribute - **Inflation**: In July, US wholesale prices jumped, with the PPI rising 0.9% month - on - month, the largest monthly increase in three years. The July CPI inflation was moderate, but the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.9% [3][6]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: After the non - farm payrolls data, the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September soared from about 40% to around 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts this year increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance in their upward movement and returned to a weak trend [3][6]. - **Monetary Policy Review**: From 2024 to 2025, the Fed's monetary policy experienced multiple adjustments, including interest rate holds, cuts of different magnitudes, and changes in the expected number of interest rate cuts. The Fed's stance has been influenced by factors such as inflation, employment, and economic growth [11][12][13]. 2. Safe - Haven Attribute - Trump's trade war has entered a new stage, with the US - China tariff truce extended by 90 days. Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the "Trump - Putin meeting" is imminent, with Trump indicating that the US and Russia are "very close" to reaching an agreement [7][8]. 3. Commodity Attribute - **Gold**: Although gold jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other forms has offset some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, which keeps the central bank's gold - buying demand at a high level [4]. - **Silver**: The World Silver Association expects that due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) [4]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold increased while those in silver decreased. Domestic Shanghai gold futures companies have continuously reduced their net long positions at a high level, and Shanghai silver has slightly reduced its net long positions at a low level. The world's largest gold and silver ETFs have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions [4]. 5. Future Investment Logic and Strategy - **Investment Logic**: In the short - term, the precious metals market is weak and volatile. In the medium - term, it will fluctuate at a high level, and in the long - term, it will show a step - by - step upward trend. The risk of economic recession in the long - term may force the Fed to cut interest rates, and the "de - dollarization" process will support the upward trend of precious metals [6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term: weak and volatile; Medium - term: high - level volatility; Long - term: step - by - step upward. The support and resistance levels for Shanghai gold futures are 760 - 765 and 790 - 795 respectively, and for Shanghai silver futures are 9000 - 9030 and 9400 - 9430 respectively [6].