Shan Jin Qi Huo

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山金期货黑色板块日报-20250415
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-15 06:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade tensions are disturbing the market, causing significant fluctuations in global capital markets and dragging down black - series commodities. The downstream demand has reached its peak in April, with limited room for further increase and a possible decline. There may be policy - based hedging measures due to the negative impact of the trade war on plate consumption and exports [2]. - In the real estate sector, the land auction market in core cities is heating up, indicating a potential stabilization and recovery, but the real - estate market in lower - tier cities is still at the bottoming stage [2][3]. - For iron ore, the global trade tensions are a major concern. Although downstream demand in April may support prices, the supply is at a relatively high level, and the iron - water production increase is expected to be limited. The future price is likely to fluctuate downward [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Situation**: Trade tensions and the peak - stage downstream demand affect the market. The production of threaded steel increased last week, the factory inventory turned from decreasing to increasing, the social inventory decreased, and the total inventory continued to decline. The apparent demand increased but at a slower pace. The trade war has a negative impact on plate consumption and exports [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price rebounded after breaking through the previous low, with short - term uncertainty [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing price of the threaded - steel main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3242 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from last week. The spot prices of both showed some changes, with the threaded - steel spot price up 0.32% from the previous day and the hot - rolled coil up 0.31% [2]. - **Base and Spread**: The main - contract base of threaded steel was 44 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from last week; the hot - rolled coil was 18 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from last week. Various spreads also had different changes [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of threaded steel increased by 1.63% week - on - week, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.91%. The social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.19%, and the factory inventory increased by 1.95% [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Global trade tensions are the focus. Downstream demand in April may support prices, but the supply is at a high level, and the iron - water production increase is limited [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price dropped significantly after breaking through the previous low and then stabilized and rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate downward in the future [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract was 706 yuan/dry ton, down 7.41% from last week. The prices of various iron - ore powders in ports also had different changes [4]. - **Base and Spread**: The base and various spreads of iron - ore futures showed different trends, such as the DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread being 26.5 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan from last week [4]. - **Supply - related Data**: Australian iron - ore shipments increased slightly, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 4.21%. The port inventory decreased by 0.88% [4]. 3.3. Industry News - From April 7 - 13, 2025, the total iron - ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2617.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 258.8 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2525.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 336.8 million tons [5]. - On April 14, some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai raised the prices of wet - quenched and dry - quenched coke, effective from April 15 [5]. - In March 2025, China imported 9397.4 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, with a total of 28531.2 million tons from January - March. The exports of steel products in March were 1045.6 million tons, with a total of 2742.9 million tons from January - March [6]. - As of the week ending April 11, the total manganese - ore inventory in ports increased by 4 million tons [6]. - In April, the new - order quotation of glass increased by about 0.5 yuan/square meter, but due to the decline in component prices, the negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is deadlocked, and the transaction center is expected to decline [6].
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250414
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-14 03:08
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间:2025年04月14日08时24分 报告导读: 最近贸易紧张局势扰动市场,全球资本市场剧烈波动,拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后,下游需求进入高峰期,继续上升的空间有限,且不排除有 回落的可能。我的钢铁最新的数据显示,上周螺纹钢产量有所增加,厂库由降转增,社库回落,总库存继续下降,表需环比继续上涨,但涨幅已经 明显放缓。房地产方面,核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ,或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ,但全国范围来看,低线城市房地产市场仍在筑 底过程中。贸易战对板材下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ,预计近期会有政策面的对冲措施出台 。从技术上看,期价跌破了前期的点后 有所反弹,短线后面临一定的不确定性。 操作建议: 空单可以轻仓持有,但如果后市期价继续反弹,则意味着本轮下跌的结束,空单则需要及时逢低离场。 | 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 ...
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250411
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-11 01:08
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间:2025年04月11日08时24分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读: 最近两天贸易紧张局势扰动市场,全球资本市场剧烈波动,拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后,下游需求进入高峰期。我的钢铁最新的数据显示,本 周螺纹钢产量有所增加,厂库由降转增,社库回落,总库存继续下降,表需环比继续上涨,需求已经进入到高峰期。房地产方面,核心城市土地拍 卖市场热度快速回升,或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ,但全国范围来看,低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。贸易战对板材下游消费以及出 口均将构成一定的负面冲击。从技术上看,期价跌破了前期的点,在悲观市场氛围下,有可能继续探底。 操作建议: 逢高轻仓做空 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3139 | 51 | 1.65% | -25 | -0.79% | | | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3255 | ...
山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250410
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 10:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk of Trump's trade war has been partially realized, and the "de - dollarization" process has accelerated. The US economy shows more signs of weakness, but Fed officials are cautious about interest rate cuts [2]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump's reciprocal tariffs have been implemented, and there is still a possibility of escalation between China and the US. The VIX index has risen from a low level. The trade war has prompted central banks around the world to reduce their holdings of US Treasuries and increase their gold reserves [2]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the Fed meeting minutes show that most participants believe inflation may be more persistent. The US labor market remains resilient, with non - farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations. The US inflation also remains resilient, with the core PCE price index in February rising 2.8% year - on - year, exceeding the expected 2.7%. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in June, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has returned to around 75 basis points. The US dollar index has declined again, and the US Treasury yield has rebounded significantly [2]. - From the perspective of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index has fluctuated downward, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 3.21%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 3.44%. International and domestic gold prices showed different changes, with Comex gold rising 3.39% from the previous day, and Shanghai gold rising 2.24% [2][3]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade war risk realization, "de - dollarization" acceleration, US economic weakness, and Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - **Attributes Analysis**: Safe - haven attribute is affected by trade war and VIX index; monetary attribute is related to inflation, labor market, and Fed's interest rate expectations; commodity attribute is influenced by CRB index and RMB exchange rate [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have recently reduced their positions. The visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management and stop - loss and take - profit [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: Federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets are 67743.25 billion US dollars, a decrease of 169.14 billion US dollars from the previous period [9]. - **Inflation and Yield**: Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.46, up 0.10 (4.24%) from the previous day and 0.21 (9.33%) from the previous week. CPI and core CPI have shown certain changes [9][11]. - **Exchange Rate and Spread**: The US dollar index is 102.95, down 0.01 (- 0.01%) from the previous day and 0.81 (- 0.78%) from the previous week. Various bond spreads have also changed [9][11]. - **Other Data**: Data on M2, GDP, employment, real estate, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects have shown different trends [9][11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate adjustments [13].
山金期货原油日报-20250410
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 01:21
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Trump's suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy for some countries (excluding China) for 90 days reversed market sentiment, but there is still uncertainty in the US government's tariff policy [2]. - OPEC+ plans to accelerate production increase in May, which is a major negative factor for the supply - demand balance of the oil market [2]. - Under macro - pressure, the probability of new geopolitical information emerging is high, and attention should be paid to the situation around Iran and Turkey [2]. - The current rapid rebound of oil prices may be anchored to a weak supply - demand balance, and it is less likely for US oil to return to $70 per barrel. The technical analysis shows a clear short - term bearish trend [2]. 3. Content Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On April 9th, Sc was at 457.60 yuan/barrel, down 21.00 yuan (-4.39%) from the previous day and 98.50 yuan (-17.71%) from the previous week; WTI was at $62.71/barrel, up $4.48 (7.69%) from the previous day and down $8.43 (-11.85%) from the previous week; Brent was at $65.72/barrel, up $4.10 (6.65%) from the previous day and down $8.79 (-11.80%) from the previous week [2]. - **Internal - External Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at $0.79/barrel, down $7.42 (-90.41%) from the previous day and $5.55 (-87.58%) from the previous week; Sc - Brent was at -$2.22/barrel, down $7.04 (-146.14%) from the previous day and $5.19 (-174.88%) from the previous week [2]. - **Sc Month - spreads**: Sc_C1 - C2 was at 0.50 yuan/barrel, up 0.60 yuan (600.00%) from the previous day and down 2.40 yuan (-82.76%) from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C6 was at 3.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.20 yuan (6.90%) from the previous day and down 17.40 yuan (-84.88%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $66.54/barrel, up $0.29 (0.44%) from the previous day and down $10.90 (-14.08%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was at $66.18/barrel, down $0.49 (-0.73%) from the previous day and down $11.22 (-14.50%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spreads**: Diesel (East China)/Sc was 14.894708, up 0.51 (3.54%) from the previous day and 2.22 (17.52%) from the previous week; Gasoline (East China)/Sc was 17.691314, up 0.64 (3.75%) from the previous day and 2.72 (18.14%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2. Inventory Data - **Sc Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts were 377.70 million barrels, unchanged from the previous day and down 163.20 million barrels (-30.17%) from the previous week; Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 396.71 million barrels, with a 0.28 million - barrel increase (0.07%) [2]. - **EIA US Data**: Commercial crude oil was 442.35 million barrels, with a 2.55 million - barrel increase (0.58%); Cushing crude oil was 25.76 million barrels, with a 0.68 million - barrel increase (2.72%); gasoline was 235.98 million barrels, with a 1.60 million - barrel decrease (-0.67%); distillates were 111.08 million barrels, with a 3.54 million - barrel decrease (-3.09%) [2]. 3.3. CFTC Position Data - Non - commercial net positions were 16.77 million contracts, with a 1.29 million - contract decrease (-7.13%); commercial net positions were - 17.67 million contracts, with a 1.34 million - contract increase (-7.06%); non - report net positions were 0.90 million contracts, with a 0.06 million - contract decrease (-5.79%) [2]. 3.4. Market News - From April 4th to the week of April 4th, EIA US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.553 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.681 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.60 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 3.544 million barrels [3]. - Iraq set the price of Basra Heavy crude oil for Asia in May at a discount of $2.90 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average price, and the price of Basra Medium crude oil at a premium of $0.25 per barrel [3]. - Trump suspended the comprehensive reciprocal tariff policy for 90 days for trade negotiations but retained a 10% benchmark tariff on all goods entering the US and continued to impose tariffs on specific industries [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 76.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 23.9% [4]. - JPMorgan predicts that the next Fed rate cut will be in September [5]. - Goldman Sachs initially predicted a 65% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months but revised it to 45% after Trump's suspension announcement [5]. - EU member states voted to impose a 25% tariff on US imports in retaliation for the US steel and aluminum tariffs [5]. - China's State Council Tariff Commission raised the tariff rate on US imports from 34% to 84% [6]. - US trade tariffs may have a greater impact on the eurozone economy than the ECB initially estimated, and may drag down inflation [6]. 3.5. Operation Suggestions - The short - term market sentiment has reversed, but the medium - term strategy is to sell high. Aggressive investors can consider short - term short positions or buying put options [2].
黑色板块日报-20250410
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-10 01:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade wars have disrupted the market in recent days, dragging down black - series commodities. However, downstream demand has entered a peak period in April. The real - estate market in core cities is showing signs of recovery, while that in low - tier cities is still bottoming out. Trade wars also have a negative impact on the downstream consumption of plates. Technically, the futures prices are falling and may continue to decline [2]. - For iron ore, trade wars are a major market disturbance. Downstream demand in April may support futures prices. The supply is at a relatively high level, and port inventories have rebounded. Steel mill profitability is okay, and iron - water production is in a recovery trend but with limited room for further increase. Technically, the futures price has dropped significantly and may continue to decline [3]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: Tariff wars have affected the market. Downstream demand is in a peak period. Real - estate in core cities is recovering, while low - tier cities are still bottoming out. Trade wars impact plate consumption. Futures prices are falling [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach. Try short - selling on rebounds [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the threaded - rod main contract is 3088 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day and 2.46% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3208 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day and down 5.14% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national threaded - rod production of building - material steel mills is 228.65 tons, up 0.54% from last week; hot - rolled coil production is 322.7 tons, down 0.63% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of five major steel products is 1215.48 tons, down 3.04% from last week; the threaded - rod social inventory is 590.95 tons, down 3.06% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory is 301.09 tons, down 3.13% from last week [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Trade wars are the main market disturbance. Downstream demand in April may support prices. Supply is high, and port inventories have rebounded. Steel mill profitability is okay, and iron - water production is recovering but with limited growth space. Futures prices have dropped significantly [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down, and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron - ore main contract is 689 yuan/dry ton, down 0.58% from the previous day and 12.95% from last week [4]. - **Supply**: Australian iron - ore shipments are 1567.7 tons, down 12.81% from last week; Brazilian shipments are 657.8 tons, up 9.71% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory is 14468.41 tons, down 0.36% from last week [4]. 3. Industry News - The Bohai - Rim steam - coal price index closed at 678 yuan/ton yesterday, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous period. The coal - market supply - demand relationship has improved, with regional and calorific - value differentiations. The index hit its largest decline this year due to a significant drop in long - term contract prices [5]. - The 2024 Coal Industry Development Annual Report predicts that coal demand will see a slight increase in 2025. Electricity coal consumption will grow, while that in the steel and building - materials industries will decline slightly, and the chemical industry will have moderate growth [6].
山金期货贵金属策略报告-2025-04-08
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-08 10:58
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间:2025年04月08日16时44分 一、黄金 报告导读: 今日贵金属震荡偏强,沪金主力收涨0.37%,沪银主力收涨0.26%。①核心逻辑,短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现;美国经济出现 更多转弱信号,但联储官员对降息态度谨慎。②避险属性方面,特朗普对等关税兑现,中美仍存升级可能。VIX低位上行;另外全 球股市暴跌,引发流动性担忧;③货币属性方面,面对经济不确定性,多位美联储决策者支持谨慎的政策方针。美国劳动力市场仍 存韧性,非农大幅超预期。美国通胀仍存韧性,2月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%,超过预期的2.7%。目前市场预期美联储下次 降息至6月,预期25年总降息空间重回100基点左右,短期国债避险扰动,参考当年硅谷银行破产,美联储未必会跟随。美元指数 和美债收益率下行遇阻;④商品属性方面,CRB商品指数震荡下行,人民币贬值利多国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强,中期 高位震荡,长期阶梯上行。 策略:稳健者观望,激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理,严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据: | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 ...
山金期货黑色板块日报-2025-04-08
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-08 01:52
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间:2025年04月08日08时23分 报告导读: 周一全球股市大幅下挫,商品市场普跌,拖累黑色系商品。 进入四月之后,下游需求进入高峰期。我的钢铁最新的数据显示,上周螺纹钢产量有所 增加,厂库继续下降,社库回落,总库存继续下降,表需环比继续上涨。房地产方面,核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ,或预示房地产市场将 逐步企稳回升,但全国范围来看,低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。贸易战对板材下游消费也将构成一定的负面冲击 。从技术上看,期价不断 走低,跌破了前期的点,在悲观市场氛围下,有可能继续探底。 操作建议: 维持观望,反弹后可以做空,谨慎追空 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期现货价格 | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3146 | -18 | -0.57% | -13 | -0.41% | | | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3261 | -99 ...
山金期货原油日报-2025-04-03
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-03 02:36
投资咨询系列报告 1、国前财长萨默斯表示,特朗普政府即将实施的关税上调将对经济造成类似石油危机的冲击,使生产能力萎缩,从而推高物价和失业率。萨默斯表示:"这种冲击将是一种我们通常 讨论油价飙升、地震或干旱等供应冲击的方式。""问题主要是会造成多大的破坏。""这些都是非常重要的经济政策,对外交关系和国家安全也有影响。"他说,"直接的"影响将是推高 价格,然后导致就业减少和投资减少。"这是一次典型的供应冲击",让美联储"处于非常困难的境地"。 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间:2025年04月03日08时02分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 4月2日 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | | 百分比 | | | Sc | 元/桶 | 552.20 | | -3.90 | -0.70% | 10.40 | 1.92% | | 原油期货 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 70.73 | | ...
黑色板块日报-2025-04-02
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-02 01:21
投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间:2025年04月02日08时17分 报告导读: 昨日黑色系商品集体回升,主要因进入四月之后,下游需求进入高峰期。近期新疆有多家钢企压减粗钢产量 ,提振多头信心,但新疆整体产量规模 小,后续内次钢厂是否跟进有待观望。我的钢铁最新的数据显示,上周螺纹钢产量有所增加,厂库继续下降,社库回落,总库存继续下降,表需环 比继续上涨。房地产方面,核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ,或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ,但全国范围来看,低线城市房地产市场仍在 筑底过程中,未来钢材的下游需求主要看热卷等其他品种 。从技术上看,目前期价围绕 10 日均线进行震荡,整体处于震荡偏弱的状态,有可能处于 震荡筑底的过程中。 操作建议: 多单可轻仓持有 | 表1:螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3170 | 11 | 0.35% | ...